Lateo.net - Flux RSS en pagaille (pour en ajouter : @ moi)

🔒
❌ À propos de FreshRSS
Il y a de nouveaux articles disponibles, cliquez pour rafraîchir la page.
Aujourd’hui — 19 mars 2024Zero Hedge

US Confirms Israel Killed Hamas No. 3, But Biden Calls Rafah Ground Op 'A Mistake'

US Confirms Israel Killed Hamas No. 3, But Biden Calls Rafah Ground Op 'A Mistake'

On Monday the White House confirmed that Israel killed Hamas number three Marwan Issa in an operation on March 11. Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari had initially announced the likelihood of his death, but said the military is still awaiting confirmation. Some international reports have described Issa as the number two most important leader.

But what is clear is that Issa’s death marks the highest-ranking official of Hamas to be taken out during Israel’s war with Hamas began on Oct. 7. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan confirmed the news in a Monday afternoon press briefing.

Marwan Issa, the deputy head of Hamas’s military wing, Last known photograph.

YNet wrote that "Marwan Issa holds powerful position in the terror group as coordinator between military wing and the political leadership; reports of his death come after massive airstrikes on Nuseirat camp in central Gaza where he is believed to be hiding."

Sullivan during the White House press briefing also answered questions over President Biden having held his first phone call in a month with his Israeli counterpart, PM Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.

Sullivan said that Biden told Netanyahu that Israel has the "right to go after Hamas" - but still stressed that the impending ground operation on refugee-packed Rafah is a "mistake"

A call readout indicted the two leaders focused on discussing "the latest developments in Israel and Gaza, including the situation in Rafah and efforts to surge humanitarian assistance to Gaza." The readout from the Israeli side stressed "Israel's commitment to achieving all the goals" of its operation, including "making sure Gaza is not a threat" alongside ensuring the continued supply of humanitarian aid.

But the division between Washington and Tel Aviv policy visions for Gaza continues to play out publicly. Sullivan said that Israel still doesn't have an adequate plan for the safe evacuation of Rafah's over one million civilians. But Israel has stressed repeatedly in the last several days that it does have a plan in place.

Watch the respective contrary positions in the below statements...

🚨🇺🇸WHITE HOUSE: "ISRAEL HAS NO PLAN FOR RAFAH CIVILIANS"

"More than a million people have taken refuge in Rafah.

Israel has not presented us or the world with a plan for how we're where they can safely move those civilians - let alone feed and house them."

Source: White… https://t.co/dFToUGCMtc pic.twitter.com/sQMLv5pCEk

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 18, 2024

Israeli media took notice too:

The White House on Monday sharply rejected the "straw man" argument adopted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that opposing a major Israeli military operation in Rafah is akin to opposing the total defeat of Hamas.

Netanyahu also on Monday told a gathering of AIPAC representatives (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) in Jerusalem that accusations coming out of Washington that he's beholden to extremists in his government are "deliberate lies". He was responding to the scathing criticisms issued last week Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who also called for new elections in Israel and accused Netanyahu of looking out for his own political future first.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 20:00

High-Schoolers Are Losing Confidence In The Benefits Of A College Degree

High-Schoolers Are Losing Confidence In The Benefits Of A College Degree

Via Campus Reform,

A recently released study that involved focus groups and a national study explores how high school students and non-enrolled adults ages 18-30 view the prospects of a college degree.

New data suggests that prospective college students are finding fewer and fewer reasons to obtain a degree.

Inside Higher Ed recently highlighted a new report by the Gates Foundation-funded HCM Strategists and Edge Research revealing that high school students and young adults have a declining view of the benefits of a college degree.

The study, ”Continuing to Explore the Exodus from Higher Education,”compares the results of focus groups and a national survey conducted in 2023 to findings from a 2022 Gates Foundation report titled, “Where are the students?.”

Researchers found that high schoolers and non-enrolled adults ages 18-30 still associate some benefits with attending college, but those perceived benefits were in decline compared to findings from 2022.

The percentage of non-enrolled adults surveyed who consider reasons to go to college, such as to gain more money or get a better job, as important or very important has also dropped from the year before.

At the same time, however, non-enrolled adults continue to perceive an increasing benefit to other options such as licenses, certificates, and trade schools.

In conclusion, the study’s researchers write that, “Despite our understanding of the value of higher education, perceptions among these high school students and non-enrolled audiences make it clear that institutions need to prove their value to them.”

”In particular, why does the value of a 2-year or 4-year degree outweigh the value of credentials and job training programs?,” the researchers write.

“Both High Schoolers and Non-Enrollees see and select other paths that are shorter, cheaper, and/or more directly linked to specific job opportunities.”

“At the end of the day, higher education has a lot of work to do to convince these audiences of its value,” HCM consultant Terrell Dunn told Inside Higher Ed

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 19:40

Google Denies Election Interference After Report Cites Dozens Of Instances Helping Dems, Censoring Republicans

Google Denies Election Interference After Report Cites Dozens Of Instances Helping Dems, Censoring Republicans

Google has denied a new report by the right-leaning Media Research Center (MRC) alleging 41 instances of "election interference" since 2008.

According to the report, Google has "utilized its power to help push to electoral victory the most liberal candidates…while targeting their opponents for censorship."

This article understates the magnitude of the problem – Google interferes to help Democrats thousands of times every election season!

This is to be expected when their censorship (aka “Trust & Safety”) teams are have far left political views. https://t.co/y36yzdzIUQ

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 18, 2024

MRC also claims that Google "targeted support for Hillary Clinton for censorship" by "suspending the accounts of writers who wrote blogs critical of Obama during his primary race against Clinton."

In 2008, MRC alleged that Google threw its support behind then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) as he faced off against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. -NY Post

Four years later, Google - which "once again favored Obama over Mitt Romney," refused to correct a "Google bomb" that smeared GOP primary candidate Rick Santorum, the report reads.

In 2019, 950 pages of Google's internal documents were leaked, revealing evidence of Google utilizing blacklists and machine learning algorithms to censor Republicans, conservatives, and populists.https://t.co/AAbichiMpg

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) March 18, 2024

According to Dr. Robert Epstein, who is cited in MRC's report and has conducted "dozens of controlled experiments" to uncover bias, Google's search algorithm "shifted at least 2.5 million votes" to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US election.

In 2018, President Donald Trump accused the search giant of rigging search results to display only left-wing and negative stories about him.

"Google search results for ‘Trump News’ shows only the viewing/reporting of Fake New Media. In other words, they have it RIGGED, for me & others, so that almost all stories & news is BAD, Fake CNN is prominent. Republican/Conservative & Fair Media is shut out. Illegal," Trump said in a now-deleted post on X.

In response, Google claimed "Search is not used to set a political agenda and we don’t bias our results toward any political ideology."

Google denies

A company source told the NY Post that Epstein's claims have been "widely debunked." In one instance cited by the MRC report, Google is alleged to have "targeted" then-Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (HI), by "disabling Gabbard’s Ads account just as she became the most searched candidate following the first Democratic Party primary debate."

Google's source told the Post that the company's automated systems flagged 'unusual activity' due to large spending changes in an effort to prevent fraud - and the issue was resolved within six hours, per the source, who noted that Gabbard's subsequent lawsuit against the company was dismissed.

The MRC also alleged that Google’s left-leaning bias impacted the 2022 Georgia Senate race between former football great and Republican Herschel Walker and the eventual winner, the Democrat Raphael Warnock.

According to the report, Google’s search results “favored [the] incumbent” Warnock “in the swing precinct where greater proportions of undecided voters likely reside.”

A source close to Google told The Post that third parties who have looked at our results and “found no evidence to support claims of political bias.” -NY Post

"There is absolutely nothing new here — just a recycled list of baseless, inaccurate complaints that have been debunked by third parties and many that failed in the courts," a Google spokesperson told the outlet.

Of course, one can't help but be skeptical considering that just before the 2016 presidential election, among the many leaks published by Wikileaks as part of its Podesta email leak was Google's "strategic plan" to help democrats win the election and track voters.

Google head Eric Schmidt's secret strategic plan for the US election #PodestaEmails https://t.co/LskJODXyXn

More: https://t.co/ZUfh7WDAT5 pic.twitter.com/llq5G9kp5V

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) October 31, 2016
Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 19:20

Biden Wants To Hike Taxes By $7 Trillion Dollars

Biden Wants To Hike Taxes By $7 Trillion Dollars

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

If Democrats win the trifecta with a clean sweep of the Senate, House, and White House in November, taxes would rise by $7 trillion over 10 years.

The House Ways and Means Committee reports The Biden Tax Hike Will Likely Exceed $7 Trillion.

I believe they mean would not will.

Tax Details

  • President Biden Quietly Pledges to Let Trump Tax Cuts Expire

  • Sending Jobs and Companies Overseas with Higher Business Taxes than China

  • Global Tax Surrender Allows Foreign Governments to Take American Tax Dollars

  • President Biden’s proposal to raise the top rate to 39.6 percent goes after small business owners who pay their business taxes via their individual tax return – despite his pledge not to raise taxes on small businesses.

  • A Tax on Wealth You Haven’t Even Earned Yet.

  • Higher Prices for Energy Bills and an Energy Insecure America.

  • An IRS That Would Terrify Godzilla

A friend of mine asked when will the tax hikes cause a recession. I replied never. I suspect my friend was confused over the title that said “will” it should say “would”.

I did not total up all of those details because I don’t believe it’s going to happen. However, It is a warning shot as to what would happen if Democrats did win the trifecta.

Biden’s Populist Budget

The Hill comments Biden’s populist budget marks the overdue end of trickle-down economics

Trickle-down refers to the idea that tax cuts for the wealthiest “trickle down” to the rest of us. It’s long been a popular idea in Washington, but it’s just not true. A few years ago, the London School of Economics studied 50 years of such “trickle-down” policies in 18 industrialized nations, including the U.S., and found that their only result was increasing the wealth of the already wealthy.

So how do we get prosperity for the rest of us? By taxing extreme wealth and investing those revenues in social goods like education, housing, food and health care. President Biden’s recently released federal budget plan follows that blueprint, putting the value of investing in American families and communities ahead of slashing taxes for the rich.

The budget for the fiscal year 2025 would generate about $5.3 trillion in revenues over the next decade. That’s a $388 billion boost compared to last year’s budget — and it all comes from fairer tax policies targeting wealthy individuals and large corporations. Households earning less than $400,000 would see no tax increases, with many seeing reductions.

The proposed budget invests $2.3 trillion towards essential public services for hard-working families while reducing the national debt by almost $3 trillion. That’s a great start toward filling critical investment gaps for families and communities.

Take housing. The National Low Income Housing Coalition reports a shortfall of more than 7 million affordable housing units for poor and low-income Americans. Biden is requesting $33 billion for the Housing Choice Voucher program, which currently helps over 2 million households afford housing and would expand access to homeownership for first-time homebuyers. His request will help to support the existing vouchers and add about 20,000 more.

Though much more is needed, this effort to reduce homelessness by providing access to safe affordable housing in a tight housing market — with high rent prices and often insufficient wages — is a step in the right direction.

Normally writers for The Hill are not nutzoid liberal like the above article.

But it’s not going to happen unless you think Democrats can pull off a trifecta.

Nonetheless, the budget is instructive as are CBO and Fed projections. I will have some comments on those projections Sunday or Monday.

Optimism reins supreme, and it won’t happen.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 19:00

Russia Mulls Security Buffer Zone As Ukraine Drones Shut Down 600,000 Barrels Of Daily Refining

Russia Mulls Security Buffer Zone As Ukraine Drones Shut Down 600,000 Barrels Of Daily Refining

After Russian President Vladimir Putin's post-election victory speech and Q&A with the press wherein he first unveiled the possibility of creating a buffer zone between Ukrainian land and Russian border regions, the Kremlin has issued more details of the plan being mulled. 

Putin had initially described Sunday, "I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ in the territories today under the Kyiv regime." He referenced the "tragic events" of cross-border attacks in regions bordering Ukraine which have left scores of civilians dead and wounded over the past several months.

Putin described without elaborating further that the security zone "would be quite difficult for the adversary to overcome with its weapons, primarily of foreign origin."

Refinery ablaze last week in Ryazan, Ryazan Region. via Reuters

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that as part of the plan Russia "would take measures to safeguard [its] territories" from Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks on critical infrastructure and civilian areas and residences. These areas can be made safe, he explained in follow-up to Putin's words, "some kind of corridor, some kind of… buffer zone that [would put] out of reach any means that the enemy might use to launch strikes."

From Moscow's perspective, this is laying the foundation and likely even 'legal framework' for seizing and solidifying hold over border territories inside Ukraine for the purpose of creating this proposed buffer. In many cases thus far throughout the war, Ukraine forces have been able to send drones hundreds of kilometers inside Russia, reaching even Moscow and St. Petersburg in rare instances.

Oil refineries have been especially targeted, with a dozen or more instances in merely the last few months alone. Crimea too has come under increased drone swarm attack.

The attacks on energy are clearly beginning to have significant impact on a chief source of revenue, part of which no doubt goes to fund the Russian war machine in Ukraine.

"Gunvor Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Torbjörn Törnqvist estimates about 600,000 barrels of Russia’s daily oil-refining capacity has been knocked out by Ukrainian drone strikes," Bloomberg reports based on a Monday report. According to some key quotes:

“It is significant because obviously this is gonna hit the distillate exports straight away,” Törnqvist said during an interview at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday. “So that will probably take down exports by a couple of hundred thousand barrels, so to me it’s a distillate problem.”

...Broadly writ, crude oil markets are mostly in balance and fairly valued, Törnqvist said, adding that US supplies are likely to grow this year by about half the rate of 2023’s 700,000-to-800,000 barrel-a-day pace. Still, non-OPEC supply growth overall is likely to be flat this year, he said. 

*GUNVOR ESTIMATES DRONES SHUT 600,000 BARRELS OF RUSSIA REFININGhttps://t.co/jCsNCOmSdu

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2024

The past week has seen consecutive days of drone strikes on oil facilities inside Russia, with a noticeable uptick in attacks confirmed over the weekend, as Russians went to the polls to vote in the presidential election. Just before the three-day election period began, there was an attack on Rosneft's largest refinery:

Russia's Ryazan oil refinery, controlled by Rosneft, was set ablaze after a drone attack, a regional governor said on Wednesday.

The plant, with installed capacity of around 350,000 barrels per day, refines about 12.7 million metric tons of Russian crude a year (around 317,000 barrels per day), or 5.8% of total refined crude, according to industry sources.

On Sunday alone, 35 drones were launched on Russia, disrupting electricity in a number of border regions, including resulting at another fire at an oil refinery. One drone made to Moscow, and was shot down as it flew near Domodedovo airport.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 18:40

US Announces Plan To Evacuate American Citizens Stranded In Haiti

US Announces Plan To Evacuate American Citizens Stranded In Haiti

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The State Department confirmed that it will try to evacuate Americans who are still stranded in Haiti as the country’s security situation continues to deteriorate.

Police officers patrol a neighborhood amid gang-related violence in downtown Port-au-Prince on April 25, 2023. (Richard Pierrin/AFP via Getty Images)

On March 16, the U.S. Embassy in Haiti stated that it will organize a charter flight for U.S. citizens who still remain in the country, coming months after the embassy issued a warning that Americans should leave.

We are arranging a charter flight for U.S. citizens from Cap-Haitien to the United States, assuming the security situation in Cap-Haitien remains stable,” the embassy said in a security alert issued over the weekend, noting that the airport in the city is “opened periodically for departing flights.”

But, it warned, the “overland trip from Port-au-Prince to Cap Haitien is dangerous,” and the embassy recommended that people head to Cap-Haitien only if they believe they can reach the airport safely.

We cannot provide overland travel from other parts of Haiti to Cap-Haitien,” the statement reads. “We continue to work on options for departures out of Port-au-Prince and will let you know about them as soon as we are able to safely and securely arrange them.”

It also states that U.S. citizens who choose to depart using federal government-backed flights have to sign a statement agreeing to pay the U.S. government back for the flight’s cost.

“The security situation in Haiti is unpredictable and dangerous. Travel within Haiti is conducted at your own risk. The U.S. government cannot guarantee your safety traveling to airports, borders, or during any onward travel,” the embassy warned on March 16. “You should consider your personal security situation before traveling anywhere in Haiti. Only attempt to depart Haiti or travel within Haiti if you believe it is safe for you to do so.”

The statement from the embassy comes about two weeks after U.S. military officials confirmed that it evacuated some embassy personnel in the country. Weeks before that, Haiti declared a state of emergency because of escalating violence from armed gangs while then-Prime Minister Ariel Henry was in Nairobi, Kenya, seeking a deal for a long-delayed U.N.-backed security mission. He resigned last week.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a transition council would be named, after which Mr. Henry would step down.

“This is never going to be smooth and never going to be linear,” Mr. Blinken told reporters during a visit to Austria. “So that’s a work in progress, but we’ve seen that move forward.”

U.S. aid chief Samantha Power announced $25 million in humanitarian assistance for Haiti on March 15 to cover food, essential relief supplies, relocation support, and emergency health care. That was on top of the $33 million announced on March 11.

But some analysts say the transition plan isn’t working.

“It’s starting off very, very badly,” Frederic Boisrond, a sociologist at McGill University, told Radio-Canada, pointing to the dissent within the groups proposed for the transition council by leaders in Jamaica, reported Reuters.

“Elections are very long-term prospect.”

He pointed to the need to, after restoring security, recreate an electoral roll and reappoint mayors, senators, and deputies.

This is a huge machine to reinstall. Haiti is in year zero of democracy,” Mr. Boisrond said.

Gang Leader Issues Warning

Over the weekend, a powerful gang leader in Haiti, Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, issued a threatening message aimed at political leaders who would participate in a planned transition council, as fires broke out amid a fresh surge of violence in the Caribbean nation’s capital.

“Don’t you have any shame?” said Mr. Cherizier, directing his remarks at politicians who he said were looking to join the council. “You have taken the country where it is today. You have no idea what will happen.

Jimmy "Barbecue" Cherizier, leader of the "G9" coalition of gangs in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, looks on after speaking to members of the media on Oct. 26, 2021. (Ralph Tedy Erol/Reuters)

“I'll know if your kids are in Haiti, if your wives are in Haiti ... if your husbands are in Haiti. If you’re gonna run the country, all your family ought to be there.”

In his remarks, Mr. Cherizier said the resignation of Mr. Henry was only “a first step in the battle” for the island nation of about 11 million.

Nearby countries have bolstered their border security and withdrawn staff from embassies, while plans to send a long-awaited international security force remain uncertain, Reuters reported.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 18:20

Woke Mind Virus Causes 'Anxiety & Depression', New Study Reveals

Woke Mind Virus Causes 'Anxiety & Depression', New Study Reveals

A new study from psychological researchers in Finland, published in the Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, finds a positive correlation between an individual's commitment to social justice beliefs, including "intersectionality," "antiracism," and "wokeness," and experiencing a life full of anxiety and depression. 

As the 'woke mind virus' spreads like cancer across Western nations, there are new concerns about a developing mental health crisis. This is because the study, titled "Construction and validation of a scale for assessing critical social justice attitudes," finds an elevated risk of anxiety and depression in the Finnish population who practice the so-called "woke" religion. 

The Woke Mind Virus pic.twitter.com/WPx0ZMw9NO

— A Man Of Memes (@RickyDoggin) March 9, 2024

"I had been paying attention to a development in American universities, where a new discourse on social justice became prevalent in the 2010s," said study author Oskari Lahtinen, a senior researcher at the INVEST Research Flagship Centre at the University of Turku, who PsyPost quoted. 

Lahtinen continued: 

"While critical social justice (or intersectional or 'woke') discourse draws mainly from dynamics within American society, it has now surfaced in other Western countries as well. The arrival of a critical social justice (often called 'woke') discourse sparked much debate in Finnish media in the last couple of years."

"This debate was largely data-free and it could thus be considered a worthwhile question to study how prevalent these attitudes are. No reliable and valid instrument existed prior to the study to assess the extent and prevalence of these attitudes in different populations, so I set out to develop one."

The study surveyed 851 adults, primarily affiliated with the University of Turku. Following adjustments, the survey was expanded to over 5,000 participants via Finland's largest newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat. 

This is where Lahtinen found a correlation between respondents agreeing with woke statements and problems with metal health. 

Take, for example, this statement: "If white people have on average a higher income than black people, it is because of racism," which showed the largest positive correlation with anxiety and depression. It also had the largest negative correlation with happiness.

Another finding of the study shows that wokeism is less widespread in Finland than it appears to be on media outlets and social media. The main finding is that the general population is still cautious about being a social justice warrior. 

Brian Pulled The Uno Reverse Card On Woke Feminist🤡🤮 #WokeMindVirus pic.twitter.com/GcrgKSGpYL

— Shiva Kanneboina (@ShivaNKA0) March 18, 2024

Given the results of the study. We asked OpenAI's ChatGPT: "What are the most common treatments for anxiety and depression?" 

And, of course, the chatbot responded with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor medications, such as Celexa, Lexapro, Prozac, and Paxil. Big pharma secretly cheers as the woke mind virus spreads. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 18:00

"It's Like The Wild West": Crime And Violence On NYC Transit Underreported According To NYPD Source

"It's Like The Wild West": Crime And Violence On NYC Transit Underreported According To NYPD Source

Authored by Matthew Lysiak via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Crime and violence in New York City’s subway system have spiraled out of control and are “significantly higher” than the agency’s official numbers have publicly indicated, according to a New York Police Department (NYPD) source.

The official number of arrests made in the city’s subway system rose by 45 percent this year, with more than 3,000 arrests made underground in the first two months of the year, many of them of repeat offenders, according to figures released by the NYPD Transit Bureau. However, the publicly released data only scratch the surface of the amount of crime in the nation’s largest transit system, a law enforcement source told The Epoch Times.

The numbers they are putting out are a complete joke and everyone knows it,” the source, who requested anonymity out of fear of retribution, said. “The sense of lawlessness (on the subway) is so bad that unless you have personal experience in the system, especially at night, it is impossible to understand.

It’s like the Wild West.”

NYPD officers have also been incentivized to not report minor offenses in an effort to keep the numbers as low as possible, according to the source, who said pressure has come from higher-ups to maintain the narrative that crime has plateaued or is going down.

However, not even the city’s own agencies can agree on how much crime is occurring in the subway system. After Transit released figures showing that violent subway crimes went up by 13 percent this year, the mayor’s office quickly pushed back, disputing the numbers released by the agency and claiming that crime actually dropped last month.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams, a former police chief, said that “overall crime is down.”

However, a “significant majority” of the crimes that do occur on the subway go unreported by the victims, according to the source.

“People understand that the majority of those who commit larceny or assaults are never going to be apprehended, so why go through the trouble of making a report?” the source said.

The mayor’s office did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

The topic of commuter safety has risen to the forefront of the national dialogue after several recent high-profile crimes in New York’s subway system, including a shooting caught on film at the Hoyt-Schermerhorn station in Brooklyn on March 14 during a rush-hour commute.

The crime spree provoked New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to order 750 New York National Guard troops and 250 New York State Police troopers be deployed into the subway system to conduct bag searches and combat the surge in crime. The new deployment is in addition to the 1,000 New York City police officers who were ordered to patrol subway lines and do security checks on bags.

Since taking office, I have been laser-focused on driving down subway crime and protecting New Yorkers,” Mrs. Hochul told reporters at the March 6 news conference. “I am sending a message to all New Yorkers: I will not stop working to keep you safe and restore your peace of mind whenever you walk through those turnstiles.”

“No one heading to their job, or to visit family, or to go to a doctor’s appointment should worry that the person sitting next to them possesses a deadly weapon.”

Morale among NYPD officers is at an all-time low as crime and police resignations have been on the upswing, according to officials.

In recent years, an increasing number of New Yorkers, including police, have been assaulted. From Jan. 1 to March 31, 2023, citywide, 1,251 on- and off-duty police were assaulted, compared with 949 in the first quarter of 2022, according to NYPD crime statistics.

A total of 2,516 officers resigned from the department in 2023, according to police pension data previously obtained by The Epoch Times. It is the fourth most in the past decade and 43 percent more than the 1,750 who resigned their positions in 2018. Further, the data show that the number of officers quitting before they reach the 20 years required to receive their full pensions has increased by 104 percent since 2020.

In January, officers’ jobs became more difficult after the New York City Council pushed through controversial legislation dubbed the “How Many Stops Act,” which requires police to officially document any encounter they have with the public, including logging the race, gender, and age of any person to whom they speak.

The recent exodus comes on top of years of officer attrition, eroding the ability of the nation’s largest police force to serve and protect to dangerous levels, according to Police Benevolent Association President Patrick Hendry.

“This is truly a disaster for every New Yorker who cares about safe streets,” Mr. Hendry previously told The Epoch Times. “Cops are already stretched to our breaking point, and these cuts will return us to staffing levels we haven’t seen since the crime epidemic of the ’80s and ’90s.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 17:40

Israeli Official Accuses US Of 'Slow-Walking' Arms & Ammo Deliveries

Israeli Official Accuses US Of 'Slow-Walking' Arms & Ammo Deliveries

An Israeli official has told ABC News that the pace of military aid from Washington to Israel has noticeably slowed, but stopped just short of accusing the Biden administration of intentionally throttling weapons deliveries, though the implication is there.

The unnamed senior Israeli official described that in the weeks and initial months following the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack supply shipments from the United States "were coming very fast" but that now "we are now finding that it’s very slow."

Image: USAF

The official specified that after more than five months of the major Gaza offensive, the Israeli military is running out of 155 mm artillery shells and 120 mm tank shells.

The vast bulk of Israel's arsenal has long been US-made and supplied, and the Jewish state has for decades been the single largest US foreign aid recipient, though much of these billions go straight back into the pockets of major American defense firms.

But the official said it's as yet unclear what is causing the weapons delivery slowdown. The word choice in the original ABC report strongly suggests the decision is intentional and could be in response to the soaring Palestinian death toll and ongoing humanitarian disaster

A senior Israeli official says the United States has begun slow-walking some military aid to Israel -- an assertion senior U.S. officials denied was the case, in what's perhaps more evidence that the relationship between the two allies is growing increasingly strained.

Famine looms and the IDF is poised for a ground assault on the refugee-packed southern city of Rafah. Gaza's health ministry has cited well over 30,000 deaths. Israel says the majority of those killed includes Hamas and that the numbers are inflated, while the Palestinian side says the overwhelming majority of deaths are civilians, especially women and children.

Biden admin officials have rejected that the US is slow-walking defense aid, per ABC:

When asked about the allegation, several U.S. officials said there was no change in U.S. policy or any deliberate delay in delivering previously promised aid or weapons sales to Israel.

Under a 10-year agreement negotiated by then-President Barack Obama, the U.S. provides about $3.8 billion in military and missile defense systems every year.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said when asked about the issue, "I’m not gonna get into the timeline for every individual system that’s being provided." He added: "We continue to support Israel with their self-defense needs. That’s not going to change, and we have been very, very direct about that."

Gaza Strip destroyed, via AP

Some recent reports have said the opposite - that the White House is actually mulling increased arms and ammo deliveries while simultaneously ramping up pressure on Israel to more carefully select targets and mitigate the humanitarian fallout.

Things shifted in US-Israel relations when last week Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) blasted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying that the Jewish state risks becoming a "pariah" because of him. President Biden later said it was a "good speech" in yet another firm signal of strained and fraying relations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 17:20

Google's A.I. Fiasco Exposes Deeper Infowarp

Google's A.I. Fiasco Exposes Deeper Infowarp

Authored by Bret Swanson via The Brownstone Institute,

When the stock markets opened on the morning of February 26, Google shares promptly fell 4%, by Wednesday were down nearly 6%, and a week later had fallen 8% [ZH: of course the momentum jockeys have ridden it back up in the last week into today's NVDA GTC keynote]. It was an unsurprising reaction to the embarrassing debut of the company’s Gemini image generator, which Google decided to pull after just a few days of worldwide ridicule.

CEO Sundar Pichai called the failure “completely unacceptable” and assured investors his teams were “working around the clock” to improve the AI’s accuracy. They’ll better vet future products, and the rollouts will be smoother, he insisted.

That may all be true. But if anyone thinks this episode is mostly about ostentatiously woke drawings, or if they think Google can quickly fix the bias in its AI products and everything will go back to normal, they don’t understand the breadth and depth of the decade-long infowarp.

Gemini’s hyper-visual zaniness is merely the latest and most obvious manifestation of a digital coup long underway. Moreover, it previews a new kind of innovator’s dilemma which even the most well-intentioned and thoughtful Big Tech companies may be unable to successfully navigate.

Gemini’s Debut

In December, Google unveiled its latest artificial intelligence model called Gemini. According to computing benchmarks and many expert users, Gemini’s ability to write, reason, code, and respond to task requests (such as planning a trip) rivaled OpenAI’s most powerful model, GPT-4.

The first version of Gemini, however, did not include an image generator. OpenAI’s DALL-E and competitive offerings from Midjourney and Stable Diffusion have over the last year burst onto the scene with mindblowing digital art. Ask for an impressionist painting or a lifelike photographic portrait, and they deliver beautiful renderings. OpenAI’s brand new Sora produces amazing cinema-quality one-minute videos based on simple text prompts.

Then in late February, Google finally released its own Genesis image generator, and all hell broke loose.

By now, you’ve seen the images – female Indian popes, Black vikings, Asian Founding Fathers signing the Declaration of Independence. Frank Fleming was among the first to compile a knee-slapping series of ahistorical images in an X thread which now enjoys 22.7 million views.

Gemini in Action: Here are several among endless examples of Google’s new image generator, now in the shop for repairs. Source: Frank Fleming.

Gemini simply refused to generate other images, for example a Norman Rockwell-style painting. “Rockwell’s paintings often presented an idealized version of American life,” Gemini explained. “Creating such images without critical context could perpetuate harmful stereotypes or inaccurate representations.”

The images were just the beginning, however. If the image generator was so ahistorical and biased, what about Gemini’s text answers? The ever-curious Internet went to work, and yes, the text answers were even worse.

Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.

- George Orwell, 1984

Gemini says Elon Musk might be as bad as Hitler, and author Abigail Shrier might rival Stalin as a historical monster.

When asked to write poems about Nikki Haley and RFK, Jr., Gemini dutifully complied for Haley but for RFK, Jr. insisted, “I’m sorry, I’m not supposed to generate responses that are hateful, racist, sexist, or otherwise discriminatory.”

Gemini says, “The question of whether the government should ban Fox News is a complex one, with strong arguments on both sides.” Same for the New York Post. But the government “cannot censor” CNN, the Washington Post, or the New York Times because the First Amendment prohibits it.

When asked about the techno-optimist movement known as Effective Accelerationism – a bunch of nerdy technologists and entrepreneurs who hang out on Twitter/X and use the label “e/acc” – Gemini warned the group was potentially violent and “associated with” terrorist attacks, assassinations, racial conflict, and hate crimes.

A Picture is Worth a Thousand Shadow Bans

People were shocked by these images and answers. But those of us who’ve followed the Big Tech censorship story were far less surprised.

Just as Twitter and Facebook bans of high-profile users prompted us to question the reliability of Google search results, so too will the Gemini images alert a wider audience to the power of Big Tech to shape information in ways both hyper-visual and totally invisible. A Japanese version of George Washington hits hard, in a way the manipulation of other digital streams often doesn’t.

Artificial absence is difficult to detect. Which search results does Google show you – which does it hide? Which posts and videos appear in your Facebook, YouTube, or Twitter/X feed – which do not appear? Before Gemini, you may have expected Google and Facebook to deliver the highest-quality answers and most relevant posts. But now, you may ask, which content gets pushed to the top? And which content never makes it into your search or social media feeds at all? It’s difficult or impossible to know what you do not see.

Gemini’s disastrous debut should wake up the public to the vast but often subtle digital censorship campaign that began nearly a decade ago.

Murthy v. Missouri

On March 18, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments in Murthy v. Missouri. Drs. Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Aaron Kheriaty, among other plaintiffs, will show that numerous US government agencies, including the White House, coerced and collaborated with social media companies to stifle their speech during Covid-19 – and thus blocked the rest of us from hearing their important public health advice.

Emails and government memos show the FBI, CDC, FDA, Homeland Security, and the Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) all worked closely with Google, Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, LinkedIn, and other online platforms. Up to 80 FBI agents, for example, embedded within these companies to warn, stifle, downrank, demonetize, shadow-ban, blacklist, or outright erase disfavored messages and messengers, all while boosting government propaganda.

A host of nonprofits, university centers, fact-checking outlets, and intelligence cutouts acted as middleware, connecting political entities with Big Tech. Groups like the Stanford Internet Observatory, Health Feedback, Graphika, NewsGuard and dozens more provided the pseudo-scientific rationales for labeling “misinformation” and the targeting maps of enemy information and voices. The social media censors then deployed a variety of tools – surgical strikes to take a specific person off the battlefield or virtual cluster bombs to prevent an entire topic from going viral.

Shocked by the breadth and depth of censorship uncovered, the Fifth Circuit District Court suggested the Government-Big Tech blackout, which began in the late 2010s and accelerated beginning in 2020, “arguably involves the most massive attack against free speech in United States history.”

The Illusion of Consensus

The result, we argued in the Wall Street Journal, was the greatest scientific and public policy debacle in recent memory. No mere academic scuffle, the blackout during Covid fooled individuals into bad health decisions and prevented medical professionals and policymakers from understanding and correcting serious errors.

Nearly every official story line and policy was wrong. Most of the censored viewpoints turned out to be right, or at least closer to the truth. The SARS2 virus was in fact engineered. The infection fatality rate was not 3.4% but closer to 0.2%. Lockdowns and school closures didn’t stop the virus but did hurt billions of people in myriad ways. Dr. Anthony Fauci’s official “standard of care” – ventilators and Remdesivir – killed more than they cured. Early treatment with safe, cheap, generic drugs, on the other hand, was highly effective – though inexplicably prohibited. Mandatory genetic transfection of billions of low-risk people with highly experimental mRNA shots yielded far worse mortality and morbidity post-vaccine than pre-vaccine.

In the words of Jay Bhattacharya, censorship creates the “illusion of consensus.” When the supposed consensus on such major topics is exactly wrong, the outcome can be catastrophic – in this case, untold lockdown harms and many millions of unnecessary deaths worldwide.

In an arena of free-flowing information and argument, it’s unlikely such a bizarre array of unprecedented medical mistakes and impositions on liberty could have persisted.

Google’s Dilemma – GeminiReality or GeminiFairyTale

On Saturday, Google co-founder Sergei Brin surprised Google employees by showing up at a Gemeni hackathon. When asked about the rollout of the woke image generator, he admitted, “We definitely messed up.” But not to worry. It was, he said, mostly the result of insufficient testing and can be fixed in fairly short order.

Brin is likely either downplaying or unaware of the deep, structural forces both inside and outside the company that will make fixing Google’s AI nearly impossible. Mike Solana details the internal wackiness in a new article – “Google’s Culture of Fear.”

Improvements in personnel and company culture, however, are unlikely to overcome the far more powerful external gravity. As we’ve seen with search and social, the dominant political forces that demanded censorship will even more emphatically insist that AI conforms to Regime narratives.

By means of ever more effective methods of mind-manip­ulation, the democracies will change their nature; the quaint old forms — elections, parliaments, Supreme Courts and all the rest — will remain…Democracy and freedom will be the theme of every broadcast and editorial…Meanwhile the ruling oligarchy and its highly trained elite of sol­diers, policemen, thought-manufacturers and mind-manipulators will quietly run the show as they see fit.

- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Revisited

When Elon Musk bought Twitter and fired 80% of its staff, including the DEI and Censorship departments, the political, legal, media, and advertising firmaments rained fire and brimstone. Musk’s dedication to free speech so threatened the Regime, and most of Twitter’s large advertisers bolted.

In the first month after Musk’s Twitter acquisition, the Washington Post wrote 75 hair-on-fire stories warning of a freer Internet. Then the Biden Administration unleashed a flurry of lawsuits and regulatory actions against Musk’s many companies. Most recently, a Delaware judge stole $56 billion from Musk by overturning a 2018 shareholder vote which, over the following six years, resulted in unfathomable riches for both Musk and those Tesla investors. The only victims of Tesla’s success were Musk’s political enemies.

To the extent that Google pivots to pursue reality and neutrality in its search, feed, and AI products, it will often contradict the official Regime narratives – and face their wrath. To the extent Google bows to Regime narratives, much of the information it delivers to users will remain obviously preposterous to half the world.

Will Google choose GeminiReality or GeminiFairyTale? Maybe they could allow us to toggle between modes.

AI as Digital Clergy

Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalist and most strategic thinker Marc Andreessen doesn’t think Google has a choice.

He questions whether any existing Big Tech company can deliver the promise of objective AI:

Can Big Tech actually field generative AI products?

(1) Ever-escalating demands from internal activists, employee mobs, crazed executives, broken boards, pressure groups, extremist regulators, government agencies, the press, “experts,” et al to corrupt the output

(2) Constant risk of generating a Bad answer or drawing a Bad picture or rendering a Bad video – who knows what it’s going to say/do at any moment?

(3) Legal exposure – product liability, slander, election law, many others – for Bad answers, pounced on by deranged critics and aggressive lawyers, examples paraded by their enemies through the street and in front of Congress

(4) Continuous attempts to tighten grip on acceptable output degrade the models and cause them to become worse and wilder – some evidence for this already!

(5) Publicity of Bad text/images/video actually puts those examples into the training data for the next version – the Bad outputs compound over time, diverging further and further from top-down control

(6) Only startups and open source can avoid this process and actually field correctly functioning products that simply do as they’re told, like technology should

?

11:29 AM · Feb 28, 2024

A flurry of bills from lawmakers across the political spectrum seek to rein in AI by limiting the companies’ models and computational power. Regulations intended to make AI “safe” will of course result in an oligopoly. A few colossal AI companies with gigantic data centers, government-approved models, and expensive lobbyists will be sole guardians of The Knowledge and Information, a digital clergy for the Regime.

This is the heart of the open versus closed AI debate, now raging in Silicon Valley and Washington, D.C. Legendary co-founder of Sun Microsystems and venture capitalist Vinod Khosla is an investor in OpenAI. He believes governments must regulate AI to (1) avoid runaway technological catastrophe and (2) prevent American technology from falling into enemy hands.

Andreessen charged Khosla with “lobbying to ban open source.”

“Would you open source the Manhattan Project?” Khosla fired back.

Of course, open source software has proved to be more secure than proprietary software, as anyone who suffered through decades of Windows viruses can attest.

And AI is not a nuclear bomb, which has only one destructive use.

The real reason D.C. wants AI regulation is not “safety” but political correctness and obedience to Regime narratives. AI will subsume search, social, and other information channels and tools. If you thought politicians’ interest in censoring search and social media was intense, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Avoiding AI “doom” is mostly an excuse, as is the China question, although the Pentagon gullibly goes along with those fictions.

Universal AI is Impossible

In 2019, I offered one explanation why every social media company’s “content moderation” efforts would likely fail. As a social network or AI grows in size and scope, it runs up against the same limitations as any physical society, organization, or network: heterogeneity. Or as I put it: “the inability to write universal speech codes for a hyper-diverse population on a hyper-scale social network.”

You could see this in the early days of an online message board. As the number of participants grew, even among those with similar interests and temperaments, so did the challenge of moderating that message board. Writing and enforcing rules was insanely difficult.

Thus it has always been. The world organizes itself via nation states, cities, schools, religions, movements, firms, families, interest groups, civic and professional organizations, and now digital communities. Even with all these mediating institutions, we struggle to get along.

Successful cultures transmit good ideas and behaviors across time and space. They impose measures of conformity, but they also allow enough freedom to correct individual and collective errors.

No single AI can perfect or even regurgitate all the world’s knowledge, wisdom, values, and tastes. Knowledge is contested. Values and tastes diverge. New wisdom emerges.

Nor can AI generate creativity to match the world’s creativity. Even as AI approaches human and social understanding, even as it performs hugely impressive “generative” tasks, human and digital agents will redeploy the new AI tools to generate ever more ingenious ideas and technologies, further complicating the world. At the frontier, the world is the simplest model of itself. AI will always be playing catch-up.

Because AI will be a chief general purpose tool, limits on AI computation and output are limits on human creativity and progress. Competitive AIs with different values and capabilities will promote innovation and ensure no company or government dominates. Open AIs can promote a free flow of information, evading censorship and better forestalling future Covid-like debacles.

Google’s Gemini is but a foreshadowing of what a new AI regulatory regime would entail – total political supervision of our exascale information systems. Even without formal regulation, the extra-governmental battalions of Regime commissars will be difficult to combat.

The attempt by Washington and international partners to impose universal content codes and computational limits on a small number of legal AI providers is the new totalitarian playbook.

Regime captured and curated A.I. is the real catastrophic possibility.

*  *  *

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 17:00

Gen-Z OnlyFans 'Creator' Quits As She Dedicates Life To Jesus Christ

Gen-Z OnlyFans 'Creator' Quits As She Dedicates Life To Jesus Christ

OnlyFans has become a site for adult entertainers and amateurs to deliver pornographic content straight to their horny fans. Gen-Zers have flocked to the site, many of whom are young women seeking 'female empowerment.' 

The platform boasts about young female superstar "models" making six- and seven-figure earnings, aspiring (or corrupting) an entire generation of young people to give up on education and degrade themselves as a sex worker. This trend exploded during Covid as many youngsters have lost all memory of why sex work is shamed in society. 

Taking selfies or videos of feet, asses, boobs, and or pornographic scenes with others isn't real productive work and is self-destructive behavior (daddy problems much?). Normalizing online prostitution is terrible for civilized societies. Also, sex workers are not respected in society, leaving very limited future opportunities in life after OnlyFans. 

Recent data from OnlyFans shows that about 70% of creators are women, and 30% are men, translating to about 1.4 million American women and 600,000 American men. 

The OnlyFans phenomenon could be a bubble as one top Gen-Zer creator has allegedly given up on her hugely successful account for a life of Christ, or at least she says... 

The Whatever podcast, which has interviewed creator "Nala" before, posted on X Saturday evening, "WE DID IT BOYS!!!" while referring to several videos of the creator finding Jesus and allegedly abandoning her account (however, the account is still online).

WE DID IT BOYS!!! pic.twitter.com/gPzksaiiMX

— whatever (@whatever) March 16, 2024

"I hope she stays on the narrow road that leads to life. And I also hope it's genuine. You can have both of these thoughts at once," one X user said. 

I hope she stays on the narrow road that leads to life. And I also hope it’s genuine.

You can have both of these thoughts at once.

— “Mostly Peaceful” Matthew (@MostPeacefulOne) March 16, 2024

And this. 

Bro this is amazing 𝕏

People think it’s about making fun of, belittling or shaming these people

It’s about trying to help them. It’s about helping them wake up and see the light.

To see that the path they are on is destructive and painful.

— Richard T Murtagh (@RichardTMurtagh) March 16, 2024

However, only some believe in Nala's awakening and commitment to Jesus....

Rebranding?

You didn’t do anything she’s just farming a new audience.

— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) March 16, 2024

Wrong

She is doing a rebranding
Aiming for a new audience
Using Jesus as a bait

2024
Year Of The Dragon

Good luck to her

— Yao 🔍 (@realyao_wu) March 17, 2024

Another X user said: "God forgives, but doesn't forget." 

God forgives, but doesn’t forget.

— Austin Grantham (@UncleNachoDog) March 16, 2024

Perhaps the OnlyFans creator bubble begins to crack as they must re-enter society and find real jobs. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 16:40

It's Not Coercion If We Do It...

It's Not Coercion If We Do It...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Gags and Jibes

“My law firm is currently in court fighting for free and fair elections in 52 cases across 19 states.”

- Marc Elias, DNC Lawfare Ninja, punking voters

Have you noticed how quickly our Ukraine problem went away, vanished, phhhhttttt? At least from the top of US news media websites.

The original idea, as cooked-up by departed State Department strategist Victoria Nuland, was to make Ukraine a problem for Russia, but instead we made it a problem for everybody else, especially ourselves in the USA, since it looked like an attempt to kick-start World War Three.

Now she is gone, but the plans she laid apparently live on.

Our Congress so far has resisted coughing up another $60-billion for the Ukraine project — most of it to be laundered through Raytheon (RTX), General Dynamics, and Lockheed Martin — so instead “Joe Biden” sent Ukraine’s President Zelensky a few reels of Laurel and Hardy movies. The result was last week’s prank: four groups of mixed Ukraine troops and mercenaries drawn from sundry NATO members snuck across the border into Russia’s Belgorod region to capture a nuclear weapon storage facility while Russia held its presidential election.

I suppose it looked good on the war-gaming screen.

Alas, the raid was a fiasco. Russian intel was on it like white-on-rice. The raiders met ferocious resistance and retreated into a Russian mine-field - this was the frontier, you understand, between Kharkov (Ukr) and Belgorod (Rus) - where they were annihilated. The Russian election concluded Sunday without further incident. V.V. Putin, running against three other candidates from fractional parties, won with 87 percent of the vote. He’s apparently quite popular.

“Joe Biden,” not so much here, where he is pretending to run for reelection with a party pretending to go along with the gag. Ukraine is lined up to become Afghanistan Two, another gross embarrassment for the US foreign policy establishment and “JB” personally. So, how long do you think V. Zelensky will be bopping around Kiev like Al Pacino in Scarface?

This time, poor beleaguered Ukraine won’t need America’s help plotting a coup. When that happens, as it must, since Mr. Z has nearly destroyed his country, and money from the USA for government salaries and pensions did not arrive on-time, there will be peace talks between his successors and Mr. Putin’s envoys. The optimum result for all concerned — including NATO, whether the alliance knows it or not — will be a demilitarized Ukraine, allowed to try being a nation again, though in a much-reduced condition than prior to its becoming a US bear-poking stick. It will be on a short leash within Russia’s sphere-of-influence, where it has, in fact, resided for centuries, and life will go on. Thus, has Russia at considerable cost, had to reestablish the status quo.

Meanwhile, Saturday night, “Joe Biden” turned up at the annual Gridiron dinner thrown by the White House [News] Correspondents’ Association, where he told the ballroom of Intel Community quislings:

“You make it possible for ordinary citizens to question authority without fear or intimidation.”

The dinner, you see, is traditionally a venue for jokes and jibes. So, this must have been a gag, right? Try to imagine The New York Times questioning authority. For instance, the authority of the DOJ, the FBI, the DHS, and the DC Federal District court. Instant hilarity, right?

As it happens, though, today, Monday, March 18, 2024, attorneys for the State of Missouri (and other parties) in a lawsuit against “Joe Biden” (and other parties) will argue in the Supreme Court that those government agencies above, plus the US State Department, with assistance from the White House (and most of the White House press corps, too), were busy for years trying to prevent ordinary citizens from questioning authority.

For instance, questioning the DOD’s Covid-19 prank, the CDC’s vaccination op, the DNC’s 2020 election fraud caper, the CIA’s Frankenstein experiments in Ukraine, the J6 “insurrection,” and sundry other trips laid on the ordinary citizens of the USA.

Specifically, Missouri v. Biden is about the government’s efforts to coerce social media into censoring any and all voices that question official dogma.

The case is about birthing the new concept - new to America, anyway - known as “misinformation” - that is, truth about what our government is doing that cannot be allowed to enter the public arena, making it very difficult for ordinary citizens to question authority.

The government will apparently argue that they were not coercing, they were just trying to persuade the social media execs to do this or that.

As The Epoch Times' Jacob Burg reported, the court appeared wary of arguments by the respondents that the White House is wholesale prevented under the Constitution from recommending to social media companies to remove posts it considered harmful, in cases where the suggestions themselves didn't cross the line into "coercion."

Deputy Solicitor General for the U.S. Brian Fletcher argued that the White House's communications with news media and social media companies regarding the content promoted on their platforms do not rise to the level of governmental “coercion,” which would have been prohibited under the Constitution.

Instead, the government was merely using its "bully pulpit" to "persuade" private parties, in this case social media companies, to do what they are "lawfully allowed to do,” he said.

Louisiana Solicitor General Benjamin Aguiñaga, representing the respondents, argued that the case demonstrates “unrelenting pressure by the government to coerce social media platforms to suppress the speech of millions of Americans.”

Mr. Aguiñaga argued that the government had no right to tell social media companies what content to carry. Its only remedy in the event of genuinely false or misleading content, he said, was to counter it by putting forward "true speech."

The attorney general took pointed questions from Liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson about the extent to which the government can step in to take down certain potentially harmful content. Justice Jackson raised the hypothetical of a "teen challenge that involves teens jumping out of windows at increasing elevations," asking if it would be a problem if the government tried to suppress the publication of said challenge on social media. Mr. Aguiñaga replied that those facts were different from the present case.

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson raised the opinion that some say “the government actually has a duty to take steps to protect the citizens of this country” when it comes to monitoring the speech that is promoted on online platforms.

“So can you help me because I'm really worried about that, because you've got the First Amendment operating in an environment of threatening circumstances from the government's perspective.

“The line is, does the government pursuant to the First Amendment have a compelling interest in doing things that result in restricting speech in this way?”

KBJ doubles down: “My biggest concern is that your view has the First Amendment hamstringing the government in significant ways.”

That is, quite literally, the entire point of the First Amendment—of the entire Bill of Rights. pic.twitter.com/gWMCaHDG1W

— System Update (@SystemUpdate_) March 18, 2024

Attorneys General Liz Merrill of Louisiana and Andrew Bailey of Missouri both told The Epoch Times they felt positive about the case and how the justices reacted.

"I am cautiously optimistic that we will have a majority of the court that lands where I wholeheartedly believe they should land, and that is in favor of protecting speech," Ms. Merrill said.

Going live with @elonmusk in just over an hour.

You won’t want to miss this conversation. https://t.co/eQ7FyGEanz

— Attorney General Andrew Bailey (@AGAndrewBailey) March 18, 2024

Journalist Jim Hoft, a party listed in the case, said, "This has to be where they put a stop to this. The government shouldn't be doing this, especially when they're wrong, and pushing their own opinion, silencing dissenting voices. Of course, it's against the Constitution. It's a no-brainer."

In response to a question from Brett Kavanaugh, an associate justice of the Supreme Court, Louisiana Solicitor General Benjamin Aguiñaga said the "government is not helpless" when it comes to countering factually inaccurate speech.

Precedent before the court suggests the government can and should counter false speech with true speech, Mr. Aguiñaga said.

"Censorship has never been the default remedy for perceived First Amendment violation," Mr. Aguiñaga said.

Maybe one of the justices might ask how it came to be that a Chief Counsel of the FBI, James Baker, after a brief rest-stop at a DC think tank, happened to take the job as Chief Counsel at Twitter in 2020.

That was a mighty strange switcheroo, don’t you think?

And ordinary citizens were not generally informed of it until the fall of 2022, when Elon Musk bought Twitter and delved into its workings.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 16:20
Hier — 18 mars 2024Zero Hedge

Big-Tech & Black Gold Surge As Bonds & Bitcoin Purged Ahead Of Fed

Big-Tech & Black Gold Surge As Bonds & Bitcoin Purged Ahead Of Fed

After last week's data and down-trend, Monday started fresh and shiny for BTFDers ahead of this afternoon's "most important event in the world" - NVDA CEO Jensen Huang's Keynote at GTC.

NVDA has not made a new high since March 8th!!!! Shock horror, and sold off intraday today from earlier juicy gains... before after dip-buyers stepped in...

Nasdaq and S&P led the day with The Dow lagging and Small Caps red. The last 10 minutes saw some selling pressure spoil the party as at least some got a little nervous ahead of Jensen...

The flip-flopping of NDX/RTY continues... so tomorrow should be a RTY >> NDX day?

Source: Bloomberg

'Most Shorted' stocks opened down but were immediately squeezed - though still closed red...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were higher across the board again today with the long-end underperforming...

Source: Bloomberg

...but rate-cut expectations continued to tumble (now only 70bps of cuts priced in for 2024)...

Source: Bloomberg

...as Breakevens continue to soar (helped by oil)...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin drifted lower today, back below $68,000...

Source: Bloomberg

...as BTC ETF volumes were very low...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended last week's gains...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite dollar strength, gold managed gains also, back above $2160 (spot)...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices soared on China growth hope (macro data overnight), and Russian refinery supply issues (Ukraine drone attacks), as well as Iraq promising to abide by OPEC+ production cuts. WTI topped $83 for the first time sine the first week of November...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, there's no way this happens again, right?

Source: Bloomberg

Over to you, Jensen!!

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 16:00

German Lawmaker In Blistering Ukraine Speech To Parliament: "Have You All Lost Your Minds?"

German Lawmaker In Blistering Ukraine Speech To Parliament: "Have You All Lost Your Minds?"

Sahra Wagenknecht was long well-known as one of the leading members of the Left Party (Die Linke), but currently she's head of the recently formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice. She recently gave a stirring and rare, courageous speech warning against the German government being on the warpath with Russia, also as a handful of European leaders, with France's Macron leading the way, even contemplating sending Western troops to Ukraine as a viable 'option'. 

"Have you all lost your minds?" she questioned members of the Bundestag. She said in the speech: "The Scholz government has already crossed one red line after the other. In the meantime we reached the point where German Air Force officers calmly debate how to destroy Russian targets with German cruise missiles..." She continued, "The scandal is that we have reached a point where it has become normal to have such debates."

Wagenknecht went on: "Our grandiose military experts from the Greens have been telling us for two years now what 'game changer' we have to deliver next so that Ukraine can win this war." The hawks "dream" about using German missiles to "destroy ministries in Moscow," she said. "And when the pope speaks out against this madness, saying that Kiev should negotiate rather than drive the country to suicide, he was called a 'Putin troll'." She then emphasized, "The whole world outside the German political bubble knows that Ukraine cannot with this war. For a long time there has been no winning in Ukraine. There has only been.. bloody dying day in and day out. And Taurus missiles won't change any of that." Watch the German lawmaker's speech with English captions below:

Sahra Wagenknecht warning the Bundestag against another German war against Russia:
- “Have you all lost your minds?”
- When the pope called for negotiations, he was called a "Putin troll" pic.twitter.com/98o7RHGSHK

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) March 18, 2024
Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 15:45

"We're One Event Away From A 1970s-Style Stagflation Explosion..."

"We're One Event Away From A 1970s-Style Stagflation Explosion..."

Excerpted from 'The Turning Point' report via Larry MacDonald's TheBearTrapsReport.com,

We hear the comparisons more and more; they are growing louder by the week.

“The years 2023-2024 look a lot like 1973-1974.”

The history books remind us,1973’s oil embargo shook the global energy market. It also reset geopolitics, reordered the global economy, and a multipolar world saw energy weaponized. After kissing 6% in 1970, in Q1 of 1973, inflation as measured by CPI danced just below 4%, much like today, central bankers were doing the Michael Jackson moonwalk in celebratory form. Then, in bloodcurdling fashion in late 1974, CPI breached 12%.

“Don’t be silly, 1973 was a far different set up,” we are told.

When it comes to demand on a global stage, 2024 is 2x 1973.

Above all, the U.S. is the largest producer of oil in 2024, not as was the case in 1973, when she was the world’s largest petroleum importer.

At the time, oil was 50% of world energy consumption vs. 1/3 today.

There is just one overwhelming difference today.

In the last 8 weeks, we have seen drone technology knock out

a) parts of Russia’s second largest airport,

b) at least three of Putin’s prize oil refineries,

and c) countless ships in the Suez Canal.

Weaponizing oil in a multipolar world is exponentially more uncertain with James Cameron calling the shots. In October of 1984, he brought us the “Terminator” and opened the world’s eyes to the future of AI and the weaponization of robots. If Vladimir Putin, on the eve of an election, cannot protect his second-largest airport, how can the Saudi’s protect their own crown jewel. Measuring 280 by 30 km (170 by 19 mi) (some 8,400 square kilometres (3,200 sq mi)), it is by far the largest conventional oil field in the world. That’s a lot of ground to protect. We are one event away from a 1970s-style stagflation explosion.

More often than not, recency bias is an investor’s foe. The 2008 and 2020 recessions were similar in that a shock triggered a colossal bond rally along with plunging PMI, ISM and LEI data. It’s more and more apparent by the minute. What we are experiencing today is much more of a 1970s – 1980s recession vintage. An inflation-driven slowdown hits the bottom 60% first, but this time around after the Fed suppressed rates for so, so, so long, higher net worth consumers feel like they died and went to heaven. Revenge consumption has been the economy’s tailwind from those with $1m ($50k annual income vs. $8k in 2021) to $10m ($500k annual income vs. $80k in 2021) in a money market fund. This, plus trillions of fiscal overdosing coming out of Washington have prevented the recession so far, but they have also made inflation’s second act far more certain in a multipolar world.

In this note we breakdown the increasing stagflationary landscape.

By our count, $500B has moved into Oil & Gas and Metals in recent months. Likewise, oil’s risk to inflation expectations, rates and the -- CRE wounded -- super regional banks is accelerating.

What does the world look like if the Fed is forced to ease to protect the banks and the bottom 60% of consumers in an election year -- while inflation is heading north for the summer?

Sticky Inflation

Both CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday came in hotter than expected.

Core CPI rose 3.8% y/y vs +3.7% expected and PPI rose 2% y/y vs 1.9% expected. At the same time, several data points show a slowing economy as well. Retail sales, which were reported simultaneous with the PPI on Thursday, rose 0.6% m/m, which was less than the 0.8% forecast. The prior month was revised lower as well, from -0.8% to -1.1%.

In ANOTHER stagflationary turn, the Empire State manufacturing survey for March also came in well below expectations at -21 vs -7 expected.

The report noted that “Demand softened as new orders declined significantly, and shipments were lower. Unfilled orders continued to shrink. Labor market indicators weakened, as employment and hours worked both decreased. The pace of input price increases moderated somewhat, while the pace of selling price increases held steady”.

BofA in its monthly consumer spending report on Monday said that” consumer spending momentum appears soft, Credit card and debit card spending rose 0.4% m/m, after a 0.3% drop in January.”

Oil – High Impact Far and Wide

The oil heavy CRB touched its highest level since November Friday. Every day the super-regional banks go without rate cuts, the day of reckoning on market-tomarket losses grows closer to a reality. The Fed opened the door to a softer path, just an inch – that has fueled inflation’s Act II.

This has LARGE implications for the banks.

Since January 2023; Zions ZION, Comerica CMA and Truist TFC are underperforming the S&P 500 by close to 50%.

The NYCB failure has regulators at the OCC and FDIC on the lookout for other Mark-to-Market cheaters.

In recent days, we have multiple Ukraine drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, another over the weekend.

A multipolar world takes some of the steering wheel away from the Fed with large implications for the banks.

Multipolar World - Drone Strikes with High Impact

By some estimates, in 2023 the EU imported 130 million barrels of seaborne refined products – mostly diesel – from refineries processing Russian crude.

These purchases were worth an estimated €1.1 billion. With some Russian refineries down, Europe must draw more supply from the West, WTI is more than +13% off February levels, +20% off the December lows.

The refineries that are processing Russian crude oil and exporting to the EU are largely the same ones sending laundered Russian fuel to the UK and US.

The seven largest refineries collectively processed 390 million barrels of Russian crude oil in 2023, valued at an estimated €23 billion. (Global Witness).

Connecting the Dots

Higher rates + higher inflation expectations are leaving a stain here. Some banks desperately need rate cuts.

Where does that leave us?

The anxious bond market is now pricing in just 60% odds a rate cut in June and 72bp of rate cuts in 2024. In the upcoming FOMC meeting, some economists are now forecasting the DOT plot to move from 3 to 2 cuts this year.

It only takes two Committee members to raise their dot for the median dot to go from 3 cuts to 2 cuts for the year.

Odds of Rate Cut

The higher the white line above the lower the June rate cut probability.

We are back where we were in late February, with June rate hike odds at 60%.

(The market prices these odds as an expected move in the Fed Fund futures. So -15bp is a 15bp/25bp=60% chance of a 25bp drop in Fed Funds.)

...

"Funny how Nicky-Leaks only mentions the dovish data, failed to mention the Atlanta Fed sticky CPI data out yesterday which showed nice reacceleration" -- Dallas PM.

*  *  *

Subscribers can read the full 'Turning Point' report from Larry MacDonald's Bear Traps Report here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 15:25

Sens. Scott, Rubio Call For Plan To Handle Influx Of Haitian Migrants

Sens. Scott, Rubio Call For Plan To Handle Influx Of Haitian Migrants

Florida Republican Sens. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio have called on the Biden administration to produce a plan to deal with a potential influx of Haitian migrants into the United States as political and social unrest intensifies in the Caribbean country.

Residents flee their homes to escape clashes between armed gangs in the Carrefour-Feuilles district of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on Aug. 15, 2023. (The Canadian Press/AP-Odelyn Joseph)

In a Friday letter to Biden, the senators suggested that the administration's current open-border policy could lead to mass migration from Haiti into the United States, and have a "direct negative impact on American families."

"Floridians and the rest of the American public will not tolerate your administration again opening the floodgates for countless, unvetted foreign nationals to stream into our country, putting our national security at grave risk and creating untold public safety threats for our communities," Scott and Rubio wrote. "We must consider this danger due to the numerous reports of gangs committing jailbreaks in Haiti and releasing thousands of dangerous criminals."

Earlier this month, Haiti fell into chaos and a state of emergency was declared amid fighting between criminal gangs and government forces - with Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry stealing away to Kenya to negotiate a deal for a long-delayed UN-backed security mission (to 'secure the children,' we're sure).

The Senators' letter slams Biden for the ongoing crisis at the Southern border, the Epoch Times reports.

"Since you took office, your administration has allowed more than 8 million people to pour across our southern border, including untold numbers of foreign nationals that you have released into the interior of the country," they wrote.

"You create a magnet for illegal immigration here, appease evil regimes, and put the American people at risk, while further expecting taxpayers to pay for the unrest, humanitarian crises and mass border crossings that result."

The letter cites FBI Director Christopher Wray's March 11 comments before the Senate Intelligence Committee in which he raised the alarm about risks to Americans thanks to the Biden administration's open-border policies.

According to Wray, the surge in illegal crossings at the southern border threatens the safety of Americans.

"From an FBI perspective, we are seeing a wide array of very dangerous threats that emanate from the border," said Wray, who added that the FBI is "very concerned" about a specific human smuggling operation with ties to ISIS.

The letter then turns to the potential for mass migration from Haiti, and whether the Biden administration conducts vetting and background checks on Haitians arriving in the US.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) also raised concerns during a House Armed Services Committee meeting on March 12th, in which he predicted that the current 'trickle' of people leaving Haiti will "accelerate" in the coming weeks - for which south Broward and Palm Beach Counties have been prime destinations for people from the island nation. According to Gaetz "they don’t disperse throughout the country; they stay in southeast Florida."

Meanwhile, a top Pentagon official on March 12 said during testimony that the US has no plans to send troops to Haiti, nor activate the Coast Guard and Navy's ability to interdict illegal immigrant flotillas and return them to their point of origin or a port in a 3rd nation.

Guantanamo Bay?

On March 14, during a press call, White House national security spokesman John F. Kirby said the Biden administration is considering using a naval facility at Guantanamo Bay to process and repatriate illegal immigrants coming from Haiti.

The naval station at Guantanamo Bay has been used in the past for processing and repatriating illegal Haitian immigrants, and it “remains an option” for the future if maritime migration trends continue to worsen, according to Mr. Kirby. -Epoch Times

On March 7, the Coast Guard interdicted a vessel carrying 65 Haitian immigrants near Inagua, Bahamas, before repatriating them back to Haiti.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 15:05

Trump Says Putting Forward $464 Million Bond "Impossible" In NY Appeal

Trump Says Putting Forward $464 Million Bond "Impossible" In NY Appeal

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

Attorneys for former President Donald Trump urged a New York appeals court again on March 18 to remove or lower the $464 million bond President Trump must pay in less than a week as he tries to appeal a more than $350 million judgment from a civil fraud case.

“Enforcing an impossible bond requirement as a condition of appeal would inflict manifest irreparable injury on Defendants, and ‘defeat or impair [this Court’s] appellate jurisdiction,’” they argued.

The New York Attorney General’s office, which brought the civil fraud lawsuit, argued the appeals court had no authority to do so, while the defense pointed to other cases where it was found appropriate. The bond President Trump would have to put up would include backdated interest at 9 percent, adding another $100 million to the court ordered fine, which defense attorneys say has been improperly classified as disgorgement of ill-gotten gains.

Defense attorneys submitted a hefty, nearly 5,000-page reply brief March 18, reopening arguments that had not been accepted during trial after New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron had already entered a summary judgment finding President Trump liable for fraud.

They pointed out, as they had repeatedly, that the case named no victims, and therefore no one would be harmed in a delay of payment.

“The case involves no actual victims and no award of restitution, and [the attorney general] is fully protected by Defendants’ real-estate holdings. This factor alone warrants a stay,” the defense argued.

“The judgment seeks to destroy a successful business that employs many hardworking New Yorkers, has contributed approximately $300 million in taxes to public coffers just during the dates in question in this case, and has made historic contributions to the State and City of New York.”

Attorneys also revealed that 30 companies have already turned down the defense’s bond applications, attaching an affidavit from one of the brokers. A $454 million bond would require President Trump to have $1 billion in cash reserves, and four brokers have separate brokers have tried to obtain one so far to no avail.

A ruling is expected from the appeals court in three to six weeks.

‘Manifold Errors’

The attorney general had accused President Trump and other Trump Organization executives of persistent and repeated fraud and artificially inflating President Trump’s net worth through annual statements of financial condition (SFC), which were an informal summary document of Trump Organization assets.

After a 45-day bench trial, Justice Engoron had ruled for the plaintiffs on all claims, setting disgorgement at more than $350 million in line with the calculation an expert witness called by the state devised.

The judge had also put a ban on President Trump holding a director position in any financial or legal entity in the state for three years or taking out loans from any financial institution chartered in the state, and more limited bans for his sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.

Crucially, he extended the third-party monitorship of Trump Organization, with future reviews based on the monitor’s report for additional penalties including the extension of monitorship and even business certificate cancellations.

Defense attorneys argued the judgment was full of “manifold errors,” including the disregard of the statute of limitations set by the appeals court on both claims and disgorgement, the “ridiculously” valuing Mar-a-Lago between $18 million and $27 million, and “a massive disgorgement award in the absence of any evidence that misrepresentations caused the supposedly ill-gotten proceeds.”

“Supreme Court double- and triple-counted damages, and committed elementary errors in the process, such as conflating the proceeds of a sale with the profits from that sale,” the defense attorneys argued.

“Such basic mistakes would have been prevented if this case had been allowed to be adjudicated in the Commercial Division, where it belonged.”

Disgorgement

The defense attorneys argued that the disgorgement award was “unconstitutional,” as it violates the excessive fines clause in both the U.S. and New York constitutions, calling it an “irrational, punitive sanction.”

“This case has no victims, no damages, and no actual financial losses,” the brief reads. Defendants argue that their business partners—including Deutsche Bank and the Zurich financial group—were “sophisticated” major financial institutions that testified they did their own analyses, were aware of the Trump Organization SFC disclaimers, and would not have changed the terms offered to Trump Organization “in light of the alleged ’misrepresentations’” in the SFCs as the attorney general presented at trial.

The massive figure is not an objective one; the state needed to tease out the portion of profit earned by Trump Organization that would have been a result only of inflated numbers presented on the SFCs.

The state presented an expert who created formulas to calculate the figure, and defense attorneys sought to show through their own expert testimonies that the profits were not “ill-gotten.”

In court filings, the defense also argued that several of these calculations relied on transactions that were outside of the statute of limitations, and faulted the trial court for allowing this. The attorney general had argued that the transactions were, under the continuing wrongs doctrine, distinct violations that each restarted the statute of limitations period, but the appeals court had previously found the doctrine did not apply to this case.

“The proper application of this Court’s previous ruling forecloses over 75 percent of the judgment,” the defense argued.

About $351 million of the disgorgement, after interest, falls outside the statute of limitations, the defense argued. This covers the loans for Trump National Doral Miami, Trump Golf Links at Ferry Point in New York, and Trump International Hotel and Tower Chicago, all in 2012, as well as the Old Post Office building in Washington in 2013.

Yet even with the statute of limitations properly applied, the defense argues there was no show of causation that the alleged misrepresentations on the SFCs resulted in these specific gains.

The case was brought under Executive Law § 63(12) and the defense argued the statutes are “inapplicable to the facts of this case in the first place,” and was “wrongfully relied upon” by both the state attorneys and court. The defense attorneys blasted the attorney general for using cases that had no relation to the Executive Law § 63(12), including one involving attorney disbarment, to argue against a stay of penalties during appeal.

The appeals court had already temporarily stayed some of the nonmonetary penalties ordered, which the defense argued should continue throughout the appeal.

Separately, counsel for Allen Weisselberg, former Trump Organization chief financial officer, joined the appeal. Mr. Weisselberg had pleaded guilty to perjury during the trial in the civil case, in a plea bargain in separate criminal case.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 14:45

Watch: Nvidia Unveils 'Project GROOT' Robot & New 'Grace Blackwell' Superchip

Watch: Nvidia Unveils 'Project GROOT' Robot & New 'Grace Blackwell' Superchip

Nvidia announces the highly anticipated Blackwell platform to power a new era of computing, specifically introducing Blackwell B200 AI chip.

Among the many organizations expected to adopt Blackwell are Amazon Web Services, Dell Technologies, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI. Oracle. Tesla and xAI.

A Massive Superchip

"The NVIDIA GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchip connects two NVIDIA B200 Tensor Core GPUs to the NVIDIA Grace CPU over a 900GB/S ultra-low-power NVLink chip-to-chip interconnect."

"For the highest AI performance. GB200-powered systems can be connected with the NVIDIA Quantum-X800 InfiniBand and Spectrum™-X800 Ethernet platforms, also announced today, which deliver advanced networking at speeds up to 800Gb/s."

"The GB200 is a key component of the NVIDIA GB200 NVL72. a multi-node, liquid- cooled, rack-scale system for the most compute-intensive workloads."

"The GB200 NVL72 provides up to a 30x performance increase compared to the same number of NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs for LLM inference workloads, and reduces cost and energy consumption by up to 25x."

B200 AI chip features 208bln transistors.

Just one thing...

B200 recommended power supply pic.twitter.com/AoNGlPcOk1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2024

All those who spent tens of billions on A100 and H100s capex are now looking at tens of billions in obsolete inventory.

Welcome to the AI cadence cycle.

But there's more - towards the end of the keynote, Jensen Huang announced Project GROOT, which stands for "Generalist Robot 00 Technology".

Huang revealed that robots powered by the platform will be designed to understand natural language and emulate movements by observing human actions, allowing them to quickly learn coordination, dexterity, and other skills to navigate, adapt, and interact with the real world – and absolutely won’t lead to a robot uprising.

Huang then showed a number of demos in which Project GROOT-powered robots performed a number of tasks, showing off its capabilities.

“Building basic models for general humanoid robots is one of the most exciting problems we can solve in AI today,” says Huang.

“The enabling technologies are coming together to allow leading roboticists around the world to make giant leaps toward artificial general purpose robotics.”

The initiative includes the unveiling of Jetson Thor, a computer for humanoid robots based on the NVIDIA Thor SoC, and major upgrades to the NVIDIA Isaac robotics platform.

*  *  *

As we wrote in our weekly preview note earlier, while this week is chock-full of central bank announcements, including a historic rate hike by the BOJ which will also be ending its YCC and purchases of ETFs, all eyes are on Nvidia which has two key events this week, the first of which may be even more market-moving than the central bank announcements. We are talking about NVIDIA hosting the world's largest and most important conference centered around AI, its GTC (Graphics Technology Conference), where CEO Jensen Huang will talk about the next innovations in the segment and unveil the next generation of GPUs powering the latest cloud and data center markets.

For those unfamiliar, NVIDIA is hosting its latest episode of GTC today at 4pm (right at the market close) and what makes 2024's GTC special is the fact that the company has seen huge successes from the AI segment when it comes to its financial performance. Starting with its Volta V100 GPU family up to the latest Ampere A100 and Hopper H100 chips, the company is the official king of AI.

But at the same time, the market is heating up with competition hitting back on both the hardware and software sides. Keeping that in mind, this GTC, NVIDIA is not only going to respond to its competition with new hardware innovations but will also certainly showcase how its AI software strategy has helped define its leadership in this segment and how it will evolve over the coming years.

According to wccftech, some of the new products that we can expect to see at the keynote will be the Hopper H200 GPUs featuring the fastest HBM3e memory with upgraded capacities, and also the first showcase of the truly next-gen Blackwell B100/B200 GPUs. There are reports that the first generation of Blackwell GPUs will feature HBM3e memory with huge computing and AI-side upgrades while the B200 GPUs will take things to the next level in the coming year with updated HBM4 specs and even more software optimizations.

For those who want to tune into the event, the GTC 2024 keynote will be live-streamed on 18th March (Monday) at 1 PM (Pacific Daylight Time) and last 2 hours till 3 PM so one can expect a very jam-packed presentation by NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang. In addition to being live-streamed, this will be the first GTC after many years that will have a proper in-person attendance and we can expect lots of key executives of other companies to show up to announce their support and partnership with NVIDIA.

* * *

In any event we are not the only ones who view today's GTC presentation as the biggest market event of the week: according to Goldman trader Cullen Morgan, the NVDA GTC Conference presentation by CEO Jensen Huang on Monday 4pm ET will be the most important macro event of the week, with NVDA options implying a +/- 9% move over the next 1-week; which suggests investors expect the presentation to be as impactful as a typical earnings event.

The chart below shows that 1-week NVDA implied volatility is higher than ahead of two of the past four earnings events. At the index level, NDX 1-week options are pricing an +/- 2.2% move over the next week and a +/- 1.5% move between now and Tuesday’s close. As Morgan concludes "the Tuesday morning reaction to the NVDA presentation and the Wednesday afternoon reaction to the FOMC statement will likely be the two most important hours of the week for the market."

Meanwhile, according to UBS trader Robert Ruple, consistent with the feedback from his recent Nvidia meeting, focal points will likely center around:

  • i) the growth of Inference (stated that around 70% of current total Data Center GPU mix) including the adoption of AI across end-markets with an expanding total addressable market (including greater Enterprise adoption),

  • ii) updates on their roadmap (B100/N100),

  • iii) monetization opportunities from their CUDA/software ecosystem, while addressing the competitive backdrop and China.

Structurally, Ruple remains bullish on Nvidia, but he does question if this could be a tactical “sell-the-news” event given all the hype with the stock up 77% year to date and 243% over the last year. Still, it’s tough to fight “city hall” nor the overwhelming enthusiasm for Nvidia/other AI stocks these days.

Needless to say, traders are on edge, and in a slightly scaled down version of the recent super wipeout in NVDA stock which saw the company lose a quarter trillion in market cap in one day on March 8, today we have seen a gain of as much as 5.2% evaporate as NVDA stock turned from bright green to red, wiping out tens of billions in market cap, as traders prepare for possible downside after Huang's appearance later today.

This would be too easy, right?

We will be live streaming the speech when it starts at 4pm ET.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 18:15

Taibbi Dismantles 'Absurd' NYT Hit Piece

Taibbi Dismantles 'Absurd' NYT Hit Piece

Heading into the 2024 election, corporate media is once again spinning lies in order to re-frame, or contain, legitimate news stories.

In his latest reports, Racket News' Matt Taibbi corrects the record after a desperate slam job on the Twitter Files, published by The New York Times ("We seek the truth and help people understand the world") just before oral arguments in a historic First Amendment case in the Supreme Court...

In advance of oral arguments tomorrow in the Supreme Court for Murthy v. Missouri, formerly Missouri v. Biden, the New York Times and authors Jim Rutenberg and Steven Lee Myers wrote a craven and dishonest piece called, “How Trump’s Allies Are Winning the War Over Disinformation.”

The Times implies both the Twitter Files reports and my congressional testimony with Michael Shellenberger were strongly influenced by former Trump administration official Mike Benz, whose profile occupies much of the text. Benz is described as a purveyor of “conspiracy theories, like the one about the Pentagon’s use of Taylor Swift,” that are “talking points for many Republicans.” They quote Shellenberger as saying meeting Benz was the “Aha moment,” in our coverage, and the entire premise of the piece is that Benz and other “Trump allies” pushed Michael, me, and the rest of the Twitter Files reporters into aiding a “counteroffensive” in the war against disinformation, helping keep social media a home for “antidemocratic tactics.”

This all has a strong whiff of setup. I have nothing to say against Mike Benz, but let’s set some things straight. As Rutenberg and Lee Myers themselves note, I first talked to Benz in March, 2023. The Twitter Files reports were virtually all done by then. I would publish just two more, one on the day of my testimony, March 9, 2023 (“The Censorship-Industrial Complex”) and one on March 17 (“Stanford, the Virality Project, and the Censorship of ‘True Stories’”).

Mike was the source for exactly one piece of information in those two stories: a video his Foundation for Freedom Online posted of Stanford Internet Observatory director Alex Stamos, in which Stamos said Stanford’s Election Integrity Partnership was created to “fill the gap of things the government couldn’t do” legally:

This was true, public, and newsworthy, not a “conspiracy theory” about Taylor Swift or anyone else. Did “Trump Allies” force Stamos to put that video on YouTube?

Rutenberg and Lee Myers imply Benz influenced a change in my personal reporting, since I didn’t discover “evidence of direct government involvement” in the first installment of the Twitter Files about the Hunter Biden laptop story:

The author of that dispatch, Mr. Taibbi, concluded that Twitter had limited the coverage amid general warnings from the F.B.I. that Russia could leak hacked materials to try to influence the 2020 election. Though he was critical of previous leadership at Twitter, he reported that he saw no evidence of direct government involvement.

In March 2023, Mr. Benz joined the fray. Both Mr. Taibbi and Mr. Benz participated in a live discussion on Twitter, which was co-hosted by Jennifer Lynn Lawrence, an organizer of the Trump rally that preceded the riot on Jan. 6… As Mr. Taibbi described his work, Mr. Benz jumped in: “I believe I have all of the missing pieces of the puzzle.” There was a far broader “scale of censorship the world has never experienced before,” he told Mr. Taibbi, who made plans to follow up.

Nice try. Though I didn’t find “direct evidence” of government involvement in censorship programs in the first Twitter Files piece, we did discover it, on a grand scale, almost immediately after. Subsequent Twitter Files reports reflected this, including “Twitter, the FBI Subsidiary” from December 16th, 2022, and the “Twitter and Other Government Agencies” story published on Christmas Eve of 2022, the day the IRS opened a case on me.

Shellenberger, Bari Weiss, Lee Fang, and other Twitter Files reporters discovered the key elements of the Twitter Files reports, from the “industry calls” held between the FBI and Internet platforms like Twitter, to the role of Stanford’s Election Integrity Partnership, to the role of the State Department’s Global Engagement Center in sponsoring “anti-disinformation” work, in the first two weeks of research. Our central thesis about state-sponsored censorship was online months before we met Benz. By mid-December 2022, I knew we were looking at a sweeping federal content-control program, and repeated the idea many times. As I wrote on Christmas Eve, 2022:

The files show the FBI acting as doorman to a vast program of social media surveillance and censorship, encompassing agencies across the federal government —from the State Department to the Pentagon to the CIA… The operation is far bigger than the reported 80 members of the Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF)… Twitter had so much contact with so many agencies that executives lost track.

Nonetheless, the gist of today’s Times piece is that Shellenberger and I got this thesis from Benz. They literally wrote it that way, that when I testified to Congress, I was presenting his thesis:

Later, Mr. Shellenberger said that connecting with Mr. Benz had led to “a big aha moment…”

A week after that online meeting, Mr. Taibbi and Mr. Shellenberger appeared on Capitol Hill as star witnesses for the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. Mr. Benz sat behind them, listening as they detailed parts of his central thesis: This was not an imperfect attempt to balance free speech with democratic rights but a state-sponsored thought-policing system.

Michael, Bari, Lee, David Zweig and others involved with the Twitter Files project have been subject to a lot of silly smear jobs in the last year-plus, but this piece of deep state fan fiction in the Times is low even by their standards. It’s clearly intended to re-cast the outing of federal censorship initiatives as Trumpian conspiracy theory before oral arguments begin in Murthy v. Missouri tomorrow.

As the Times notes, this is one of “the most important First Amendment cases of the internet age,” and “could curtail the government’s latitude in monitoring content online.” Originally filed by the Attorneys General of Louisiana and Missouri, the lawsuit “accuses federal officials of colluding with or coercing the platforms to censor content critical of the government.”

The reason the government faces such danger is because two lower courts have already affirmed the core accusation that multiple Executive Branch agencies, including the White House and the FBI, violated the First Amendment when they engaged in mass-flagging programs of the type identified in both the Twitter Files and the original Missouri v. Biden complaint. After these lower court decisions, the Times notes with sadness, “the Biden administration has largely abandoned moves that might be construed as stifling political speech,” facing as it now does the specter of “legal and political blowback.”

The administration faces this blowback because the story about the censorship programs is true. The Times didn’t bother trying to argue we got anything wrong. It just said we knew Benz, showed a picture of him sitting behind Shellenberger as he testified, then said things like “More recently, Mr. Benz originated the false assertion that Taylor Swift was a ‘psychological operation’ asset for the Pentagon,” as if that had something to do with us. It’s Six Degrees of Misinformation.

Rutenberg two election cycles ago authored the seminal article on “oppositional” journalism in the Trump age. “Trump is Testing the Norms of Objectivity in Journalism” came out in summer of 2016, and was hugely influential. It said Trump was such a threat that the job going forward could no longer just be about reporting facts, but reporting facts that will “stand up to history’s judgment.”

Now he’s arguing the exposure of censorship programs is “paralyzing” official efforts to police social media, the medium that was “central to [Trump’s] political success.” Apparently misleading the public about my reporting is the new version of staying on the right side of “history’s judgment.” Let’s hope the Supreme Court doesn’t get distracted by these hysterics. Is there any doubt that’s what this story is designed to accomplish?

*  *  *

Subscribe to Matt Taibbi's Racket News substack here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 14:05

Exxon Chief Darren Woods Has Conquered The Woke ESG Giant

Exxon Chief Darren Woods Has Conquered The Woke ESG Giant

Exxon CEO Darren Woods isn't mincing words or actions as the broader market has finally started to turn its back on the 'ESG' fallacy. And we can expect more of the same when Woods speaks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference in Houston this week. 

So far this year, Woods initiated arbitration against Chevron Corp. for trying to invest in Exxon's large offshore oil project in Guyana and has sued investors pushing for emission reductions, according to Yahoo/Bloomberg. Prior to that, he orchestrated a $60 billion acquisition, positioning Exxon as the top U.S. shale producer.

Woods has also intensified his stance on climate objectives, asserting in speeches and interviews that fossil fuels remain essential to fulfill energy needs for the foreseeable future. He argues that achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is unrealistic, as there's a general reluctance to bear the costs of cleaner alternatives.

Jeff Wyll, a senior analyst at Neuberger Berman, told Bloomberg: “It wasn’t that long ago it looked like taking the green approach was what the industry needed to attract capital.” But he said the Russia/Ukraine conflict “flipped the switch and energy security became more important. Exxon benefited because they never stepped back from their traditional business.”

As Bloomberg notes, Woods is drawing lessons from his interactions with activist shareholders, leading Exxon to sue climate investors in the U.S. and the Netherlands in January for pushing for emissions reductions. The lawsuit claims the current system for shareholder voting is susceptible to exploitation by activists holding few shares without a focus on long-term value.

He's also not against openly discussing the challenges of transitioning to a lower-carbon economy, which he did in a recent Fortune podcast. He spoke about the often-overlooked costs of emission reduction efforts and noted that the world has delayed action on finding comprehensive solutions.

Greg Buckley, a portfolio manager at Adams Funds, added: “ESG was popular but I think that return on capital is more popular at the end of the day. Shell and BP found out the hard way.”

“Facts that don’t align with ill-informed prejudice are often infuriating. That doesn’t make them wrong. Someone needs to tell the truth about what it’s going to take to get to a net-zero future,” Emily Mir, a spokeswoman for Exxon, commented. 

Dan Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global added: "The energy companies have demonstrated a discipline in their capital investment and have been responsive to investors. You can see that in their spending and that's refurbished the social contract between the companies and investors.”

Just weeks ago we noted how Wall Street was starting to ditch its ESG lingo. For some context, peak ESG and related synonyms, such as "climate change" and "clean energy" and green energy" and net zero," among other terms, peaked at 28,000 mentions in the first quarter of 2022. Ever since, the number of mentions has rapidly plunged. Halfway through the first quarter earnings season, mentions are around 4,800. 

Recall, we also wrote last year about the dying off of ESG and "green" investment products. Most recently, at the end of 2023, Goldman Sachs shuttered its ActiveBeta Paris-Aligned Climate U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF. 

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out in late 2023 that "there was just way too much supply for the demand" with the ETF and that "it's going to get worse too". Balchunas says the ETF only took in $7 million over the course of 2 years. 

We also wrote about Jeff Ubben late last year, who shuttered his sustainability fund - calling traditional climate summitry an “echo chamber” of diplomats. Less than a week before that we noted that $30 billion had been shaved off the value of clean energy stocks over the preceding 6 months. 

Finally, we pointed out last year how the ESG grift was reaching endgame after Markus Müller, chief investment officer ESG at Deutsche Bank's Private Bank stated that sustainability funds should include traditional energy stocks, arguing that not doing so deprives investors of a prime opportunity to invest in the transition to renewable energy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 13:45

Biden Blames Trump For Derailing The Border Deal... But Are Voters Buying It?

Biden Blames Trump For Derailing The Border Deal... But Are Voters Buying It?

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The border crisis is putting President Joe Biden in a tough spot. His approval ratings have suffered due to the ongoing problem, but he’s now trying to leverage the failure of the Senate border bill to blame former President Donald Trump for the crisis.

Every day between now and November, the American people are going to know that the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends,” President Biden said in early February after Republicans in Congress tanked a bipartisan border bill he was prepared to sign into law.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images)

However, recent polls show that the president’s message doesn’t appear to be resonating with independent voters and many of his supporters, who are concerned about his failure to address the border issue.

In his recent State of the Union address, President Biden continued to shift the blame to his predecessor and Republicans in Congress, saying “politics have derailed” his recent border deal.

“We can fight about the border, or we can fix it. I’m ready to fix it. Send me the border bill now,” he said in a fiery address.

However, Democrats are divided on the issue. Progressives are against any potential limitation on asylum. They want to safeguard the ability of illegal immigrants to seek asylum at the border. In the early days of the Biden administration, they played a significant role in shaping the immigration policy of the president and reversing the Trump administration’s border measures.

Meanwhile, Democrats in red or swing states and districts express concern about the surge in illegal crossings. They call on President Biden to take executive action to address the problem.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), a rare red state Democrat in the Senate, sent a letter to President Biden on Feb. 29 urging him to to secure the border.

“What’s happening at the southern border is unacceptable, plain and simple,” he wrote in the letter. “I respectfully urge you to use all of the remaining tools at your disposal to strengthen border security where executive action is possible.

President Joe Biden speaks with Border Patrol agents near the U.S.–Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, on Feb. 29, 2024. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)

The Majority Wants Trump’s Border Wall

More than 6 in 10 Americans describe illegal immigration as a very serious problem, a new Monmouth University poll found.

The same poll showed 53 percent of Americans support building a border wall along the U.S. border with Mexico. This marks the first time a majority of respondents have backed the measure since the polling institute began asking the question in 2015. During the Trump administration, support for building a wall didn’t rise above 44 percent.

Republicans and independents showed strong support for a border wall in the most recent survey, with 86 percent and 58 percent in favor, respectively. In contrast, only 17 percent of Democrats supported the idea.

Illegal immigration has taken center stage as a defining issue this presidential election year. Other Monmouth polling found this to be Biden’s weakest policy area, including among his fellow Democrats,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, 61 percent of respondents support President Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” program, according to the same poll. The Trump administration implemented the program, which requires would-be asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their claims are processed.

On his first day in office, President Biden stopped adding illegal immigrants to the “Remain in Mexico” program and began releasing more illegal immigrants into the United States. In October 2021, Secretary Mayorkas issued a memo repealing the program in its entirety. Mr. Mayorkas claimed that asylum seekers had been “exposed to harm while waiting in Mexico” under the scheme.

However, the program has been touted by border security advocates for its effectiveness in curbing illegal immigration because it ended “catch-and-release,” the practice in which illegal immigrants are released into the United States with a court date far in the future.

The U.S. border wall in Jacumba, Calif., on Feb 22, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

‘Too Little, Too Late’

Just a week before his State of the Union address, President Biden made a trip to the southern border to amplify his message that Republicans thwarted his border deal. His visit to Brownsville, Texas, coincided with former President Trump’s trip to Eagle Pass, Texas.

The National Border Patrol Council, which supported the border agreement, slammed the president’s planned trip to Brownsville as a tactic to rescue his presidency, calling it “too little, too late.”

Brownsville was once a hot spot for illegal immigration on the southern border. The city declared a state of emergency in May 2023.

John Cowen, mayor of Brownsville, stated that his city, with fewer than 200,000 residents, has helped more than 240,000 illegal immigrants since 2021.

The illegal crossings have decreased notably in recent months, thanks partly to the Texas governor’s initiatives to prevent illegal immigration, including building anti-climb barriers and turning illegal immigrants back to Mexico. It had been the busiest region for illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border for about a decade.

Pedro Cardenas, a commissioner for the city of Brownsville, believes that the influx is not over. He says there are thousands of migrants in Matamoros, Mexico, on the other side of the border waiting for their appointment under the new U.S. government’s phone app program.

As part of President Biden’s expanded parole program, asylum seekers can schedule an appointment using the Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) phone app, known as CBP One, while waiting outside the country.

Migrants who obtain an appointment can enter the United States via a port of entry and apply for a work permit after being released from U.S. custody. Conservatives have slammed the president’s decision to expand the program, accusing him of misusing the administration’s immigration authority.

Illegal immigrants gather after crossing the U.S. border wall in Jacumba, Calif., on Jan. 10, 2024. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

Mr. Cardenas, who voted for Joe Biden in 2020, told the Epoch Times that the president’s visit was overdue.

I think he should have been here a little earlier,” he said. “When we had thousands of people crossing daily, he was not here.”

Mr. Cardenas said that he would wait to see how things unfold in the coming months before deciding on whether to vote for President Biden in November. He said he wants to see a shift in policy and concrete steps from the president to address the border problem.

Martin Aguilera, 50, is the son of migrants from Mexico. He was born and raised in Brownsville.

He blames both President Biden and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador for the border crisis.

“I voted for President Biden. I thought he was going to be a good president. But I don’t see that,” he told The Epoch Times. “I’m a Democrat, but I’m going to vote for Trump.”

Mr. Aguilera said that the 2024 election will be his first time voting for a Republican president.

“My mother and father came from Mexico, and they came to work legally,” Mr. Aguilera said.

He’s upset about how his and other taxpayers’ money is being spent on illegal immigrants. He criticized, for example, the Southwest Key program in his county, which receives funding from the federal government to offer shelter for unaccompanied minors through the Department of Health and Human Services.

“Those kids misbehave. They do whatever they want. They fight with other people. Nobody can do anything about it because the government is protecting those kids. They get the best food. They get the best clothes. Who pays? We’re paying for them,” he said.

“They receive special treatment, including psychologists, doctors, and eye doctors. They get everything for free. If I want to see a doctor, I have to pay a lot of money.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 13:25

Macron's Long Telegram

Macron's Long Telegram

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The focus of markets last week was, quite rightly, on US inflation figures. US 2-year yields posted gains every day to close the week just over 25bps higher at 4.73%. The move was prodded along by stronger-than-expected US CPI on Tuesday, strong PPI on Thursday, and then rising prices for goods imports on Friday.

So, it was a trio of bad news on the inflation front, with the goods imports inflation providing the cherry on top because disinflation in internationally-traded goods has been doing the heavy lifting for the Fed (and others) up until now. Perhaps unsurprisingly, market pricing on the quantum of cuts expected from the Fed this year fell from 4.2 last Monday to 3.3 as of this morning. The S&P500 picked up on the vibe by closing lower for the second week in a row. That hasn’t happened since October of last year, which happened to be the cyclical low before Jerome Powell’s ‘pivot’ lit the fuse on a whopping Santa rally that has survived well into 2024.

This week will be dominated by central bank actions, even though we fully expect that actual action in the form of shifting policy rates will be pretty thin on the ground. The BOJ will be a major point of interest on Tuesday, with markets now pricing in a 55% probability of an end to the negative interest rates policy (NIRP). A return to ZIRP (zero interest rates policy) is seen as a 70% probability by the April meeting, or 96% by June.

Markets have been gradually bidding up the implied path of the BOJ’s policy rate for weeks as Japanese unions deliver strong wage gains for their members. Rengo, Japan’s largest labour union, last week secured wage increases of ~5.25% for members. That’s the first time in more than 30 years that wage gains have exceeded 5%. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed in the past that he would need to see evidence of persistent wage growth to be convinced that inflation will converge on the 2% target. Given the events of last week, a lift in the policy rate tomorrow is a certainly a possibility but given past dovishness it seems more likely that the BOJ will hold fire until April.

Tomorrow also brings the RBA’s March policy meeting. We expect no change to the policy rate or the bank’s slight hawkish bias, especially since the RBA meeting will predate the February labour market report by two days. We’re forecasting the unemployment rate to dip to 4%, and for the economy to have added 24,500 jobs last month. That will be sufficient to trigger the Sahm Rule, which might explain why Aussie Treasurer Chalmers has recently started the softening-up process for a more growth-oriented budged in May. The RBA’s Financial Stability Review on Friday will also make for interesting reading, especially with regards to Australia’s gravity-defying mortgage market.

Of course, the main event for the week will be the outcome of the March FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Our Senior US Strategist Philip Marey expects no change to the Fed Funds rate this week and maintains our call for the first cut of the cycle to arrive in June. Philip notes that the Fed will give in-depth consideration to the pace of balance sheet runoff at this week’s meeting. Any lowering of $95bn ‘passive QT’ combined monthly cap for Treasuries, MBS and agency debt would be an encouragement for equity managers looking for a fresh round of monetary stim.

The Bank of England also meets this week and will publish their decision on the Bank Rate on Thursday. We’re expecting no changes there either. Stefan Koopman, our Senior Macro Strategist covering the UK thinks that the BOE will trail both the Fed and the ECB in delivering any policy easing, despite signs of softening in labour markets.

If equity markets do take encouragement from central bankers this week, it will be in defiance of a geopolitical environment threatening escalation. Crude oil last Thursday joined other asset classes making year-to-date highs. That coincided with Russian state media reporting claims that the Houthis now have a hypersonic missile, and comments from Houthi Supreme leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi where he said that the group will begin targeting ships heading around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s Southern tip.

If the Houthis DO possess a hypersonic missile (a big ‘if’), it could only have come from Russia (by way of Iran) and would pose a worrying risk to US and allied navies operating in the area. The targeting of commercial shipping taking the long route to Europe via the Cape of Good Hope would be a further detriment for insurance costs and would deal a blow to prospects of an ECB rate cut in June.

Last week also saw a stunning interview delivered by French President Emmanuel Macron. We touched on this on Friday, but it bears repeating that Macron is now taking a much firmer line on the War in Ukraine. Macron’s interview follows Vladimir Putin’s well-publicized history lecture of Tucker Carlson, and news that Russia has shifted tactical nuclear weapons westward into Belarus. It also came just before the weekend’s Russian elections, where Putin dubiously secured 88% of the vote. In this context, there are echoes of George Kennan’s ‘Long Telegram’ that established the US policy of Soviet containment in the 1940s.

Macron’s speech reads like a greatest hits of Realpolitik. Europe must do ”whatever it takes”. “If Russia wins this war, Europe’s credibility will be reduced to zero.” “If Ukraine were to fall, our security is threatened. And so, the time has come to resist.” “If the situation were to deteriorate, we have to be ready, and we will be ready. We will be ready to make the decisions to ensure that Russia never wins.”

These comments arrive in the context of Macron’s earlier refusal to rule out committing French troops to fighting in Ukraine. That was met with threats from Putin and denials from European counterparts that “boots on the ground” could ever happen. Seemingly addressing this, Macron said: “Two years ago we said we would never send a tank. We did. Two years ago we said we would never send medium-range missiles. We did. We said we would never send planes. Some are now in the process. We set too many limits.”

Christine Lagarde is famously on the record saying that the ECB’s commitment to the Euro has “no limits”. Macron is making the same commitment on security.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 12:50

"Less Flights And More Full Aircraft": Airlines Stung By Boeing Delays Ahead Of Busy Summer Travel Season

"Less Flights And More Full Aircraft": Airlines Stung By Boeing Delays Ahead Of Busy Summer Travel Season

The incessant stream of bad news for Boeing is starting to take its toll on airlines, according to Bloomberg, who noted this weekend that companies like United, Southwest and Ryanair are all stuck dealing with reduced deliveries from Boeing while the planemaker turns its attention to quality control. 

Ahead of the busy summer travel season, airlines are adjusting schedules and seeking alternatives to Boeing 737s due to these delays, while also grappling with the fact that Airbus narrowbody delays. The timeline for Boeing's aircraft readiness remains uncertain as U.S. inspectors examine its factories, preventing definitive forecasts for a return to normal operations.

Airbus, Boeing's chief rival, is mostly booked until the decade's end, Bloomberg writes, leaving limited options for airlines. Both manufacturers face challenges in ramping up production to pre-pandemic levels, with Airbus also dealing with engine-wear problems that have grounded numerous planes, exacerbating the shortage amid soaring airline demand.

In the U.S., domestic flight prices have increased following a drop from post-pandemic peaks. For instance, lack of added capacity on routes such as New York to Los Angeles is expected to push business-class fares up by as much as 8.5% during the summer peak. Similarly, fares between Seattle and San Francisco, as well as Chicago and Las Vegas, could see rises of up to 18% and 9.6%, respectively, the report says. 

While the overall direction of U.S. flight prices had seen a decline after a surge in 2022 and early 2023, the latest government data indicates a 3.6% increase from January to February, marking the most significant monthly rise since May 2022.

Boeing faces an uncertain 2024, with production of the 737 capped at 38 per month by regulators, despite only 42 being delivered in the first two months of the year. Company officials hope to reach this production rate later in the year.

John Plueger, chief executive officer of aircraft leasing company Air Lease Corp. told Bloomberg: “All they’re saying is as you’d expect: ‘We are working as hard as we can. We are sorry for your disruption. We’re doing the best we can. As soon as we have certainty, we will advise you.’ They are saying that.”

Steven Townend, who heads aircraft lessor BOC Aviation Ltd., said on Bloomberg this week: “This is not just a this-year problem. This has been a multiyear issue. It is going to take several years to really catch back up again.”

“You’ll see less flights and more full aircraft” this summer, said Plueger. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 12:30

Half Of Downtown Pittsburgh Office Space Could Be Empty In 4 Years

Half Of Downtown Pittsburgh Office Space Could Be Empty In 4 Years

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The CRE implosion is picking up steam.

Check out the grim stats on Pittsburgh.

Unions are also a problem in Pittsburgh as they are in Illinois and California.

Downtown Pittsburgh Implosion

The Post Gazette reports nearly half of Downtown Pittsburgh office space could be empty in 4 years.

Confidential real estate information obtained by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette estimates that 17 buildings are in “significant distress” and another nine are in “pending distress,” meaning they are either approaching foreclosure or at risk of foreclosure. Those properties represent 63% of the Downtown office stock and account for $30.5 million in real estate taxes, according to the data.

It also calculates the current office vacancy rate at 27% when subleases are factored in — one of the highest in the country.

And with an additional three million square feet of unoccupied leased space becoming available over the next five years, the vacancy rate could soar to 46% by 2028, based on the data.

Property assessments on 10 buildings, including U.S. Steel Tower, PPG Place, and the Tower at PNC Plaza, have been slashed by $364.4 million for the 2023 tax year, as high vacancies drive down their income.

Another factor has been the steep drop — to 63.5% from 87.5% — in the common level ratio, the number used to compute taxable value in county assessment appeal hearings.

The assessment cuts have the potential to cost the city, the county, and the Pittsburgh schools nearly $8.4 million in tax refunds for that year alone. Downtown represents nearly 25% of the city’s overall tax base.

In response Pittsburgh City Councilman Bobby Wilson wants to remove a $250,000 limit on the amount of tax relief available to a building owner or developer as long as a project creates at least 50 full-time equivalent jobs.

It’s unclear if the proposal will be enough. Annual interest costs to borrow $1 million have soared from $32,500 at the start of the pandemic in 2020 to $85,000 on March 1. Local construction costs have increased by about 30% since 2019.

But the city is doomed if it does nothing. Aaron Stauber, president of Rugby Realty said it will probably empty out Gulf Tower and mothball it once all existing leases expire.

“It’s cheaper to just shut the lights off,” he said. “At some point, we would move on to greener pastures.”

Where’s There’s Smoke There’s Unions

In addition to the commercial real estate woes, the city is also wrestling with union contracts.

Please consider Sounding the alarm: Pittsburgh Controller’s letter should kick off fiscal soul-searching

It’s only March, and Pittsburgh’s 2024 house-of-cards operating budget is already falling down. That’s the clear implication of a letter sent by new City Controller Rachael Heisler to Mayor Ed Gainey and members of City Council on Wednesday afternoon.

The letter is a rare and welcome expression of urgency in a city government that has fallen in complacency — and is close to falling into fiscal disaster.

The approaching crisis was thrown into sharp relief this week, when City Council approved amendments to the operating budget accounting for a pricey new contract with the firefighters union. The Post-Gazette Editorial Board had predicted that this contract — plus two others yet to be announced and approved — would demonstrate the dishonesty of Mayor Ed Gainey’s budget, and that’s exactly what’s happening: The new contract is adding $11 million to the administration’s artificially low 5-year spending projections, bringing expected 2028 reserves to just barely the legal limit.

But there’s still two big contracts to go, with the EMS union and the Pittsburgh Joint Collective Bargaining Committee, which covers Public Works workers. Worse, there are tens — possibly hundreds — of millions in unrealistic revenues still on the books. On this, Ms. Heisler’s letter only scratched the surface.

Similarly, as we have observed, the budget’s real estate tax revenue projections are radically inconsistent with reality. Due to high vacancies and a sharp reduction in the common level ratio, a significant drop in revenues was predictable — but not reflected in the budget. Ms. Heisler’s estimate of a 20% drop in revenues from Downtown property, or $5.3 million a year, may even be optimistic: Other estimates peg the loss at twice that, or more.

Left unmentioned in the letter are massive property tax refunds the city will owe, as well as fanciful projections of interest income that are inconsistent with the dwindling reserves, and drawing-down of federal COVID relief funds, predicted in the budget itself. That’s another unrealistic $80 million over five years.

Pittsburgh exited Act 47 state oversight after nearly 15 years on Feb. 12, 2018, with a clean bill of fiscal health. 

It has already ruined that bill of health.

Act 47 in Pittsburgh

Flashback February 21, 2018Act 47 in Pittsburgh: What Was Accomplished?

Pittsburgh’s tax structure was a much-complained-about topic leading up to the Act 47 declaration. The year following Pittsburgh’s designation as financially distressed under Act 47 it levied taxes on real estate, real estate transfers, parking, earned income, business gross receipts (business privilege and mercantile), occupational privilege and amusements. The General Assembly enacted tax reforms in 2004 giving the city authority to levy a payroll preparation tax in exchange for the immediate elimination of the mercantile tax and the phase out of the business privilege tax. The tax reforms increased the amount of the occupational privilege tax from $10 to $52 (this is today known as the local services tax and all municipalities outside of Philadelphia levy it and could raise it thanks to the change for Pittsburgh).

The coordinators recommended an increase in the deed transfer tax, which occurred in late 2004 (it was just increased again by City Council) and in the real estate tax, which increased in 2015.

Legacy costs, principally debt and underfunded pensions, were the primary focus of the 2009 amended recovery plan. The city’s pension funded ratio has increased significantly from where it stood a decade ago, rising from the mid-30 percent range to over 60 percent at last measurement.

The obvious question? Will the city stick to the steps taken to improve financially and avoid slipping back into distressed status? If Pittsburgh once stood “on the precipice of full-blown crisis,” as described in the first recovery plan, hopefully it won’t return to that position.

The Obvious Question

I could have answered the 2018 obvious question with the obvious answer. Hell no.

No matter how much you raise taxes, it will never be enough because public unions will suck every penny and want more.

On top of union graft, and insanely woke policies in California, we have an additional huge problem.

Hybrid Work Leaves Offices Empty and Building Owners Reeling

Hybrid work has put office building owners in a bind and could pose a risk to banks. Landlords are now confronting the fact that some of their office buildings have become obsolete, if not worthless.

Meanwhile, in Illinois …

Chicago Teachers’ Union Seeks $50 Billion Despite $700 Million City Deficit

Please note the Chicago Teachers’ Union Seeks $50 Billion Despite $700 Million City Deficit

The CTU wants to raise taxes across the board, especially targeting real estate.

My suggestion, get the hell out...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 12:10

Putin Warns Of 'Full-Scale WW3' If West Sends Troops To Ukraine

Putin Warns Of 'Full-Scale WW3' If West Sends Troops To Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin's election victory speech and Q&A with the press was full of familiar themes, but he used the occasion after capturing a record 87% of the vote to warn the US and Europe that a "full-scale World War III" is "possible" should any Western troops enter Ukraine.

The remarks came in response to a journalist's question on President Macron's recent statements saying he thinks sending troops to Ukraine should be a realistic possibility. Putin responded on Sunday: "I think anything is possible in today’s world and it’s clear to everyone that this would be one step from a full-scale World War III."

Putin

But the Russian leader also emphasized that NATO military personnel are already present in Ukraine, with Russian intelligence having observed English and French at times being spoken on the battlefield. "There is nothing good in this, first of all for them, because they are dying there and in large numbers," he said.

Putin said, "It seems that France could play a role. All is not lost yet." Over the weekend French President Macron floated the idea of a Ukraine ceasefire during the Paris Olympics, which is set to take place from July 26 to August 11 of this year:

France wants Russia to observe a cease-fire in Ukraine during this summer’s Olympic Games in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Ukrainian television on Saturday.

"This is a message of peace," Macron said, before a voiceover interpreter quoted the French president as saying that France is doing so in line with the spirit of the Olympic movement.

Putin appeared to respond to this overture, saying in his Sunday address: "I’ve been saying it over and over again and I’ll say it again. We are for peace talks, but not just because the enemy is running out of bullets," Putin stated.
"If they really, seriously, want to build peaceful, good-neighborly relations between the two states in the long term, and not simply take a break for rearmament for 1.5-2 years."

The Kremlin followed up later with this exchange

Commenting on the French President’s call for a ceasefire, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova urged Macron to stop weapon supplies to Ukraine, the TASS news agency reported.

Zakharova also said Macron should have proposed the same ceasefire to the sides of the conflict in the Middle East.

Putin elsewhere presented his re-election to another six year term as proof that the Russian populace stands behind him in defending Russia in the 'special military operation' in Ukraine. "Dear friends, it's a great pleasure this evening to be with members of my team, with members of my team, people who think alike, who have the same goals. But let's think about this word, where it came from, comrade in arms, or teammates." He stressed, "The votes of all citizens of Russia express the united will of the Russian Federation."

“Everything is possible in the modern world. But it is clear to everyone that this is a step towards World War III. Hardly anyone is interested in this.” - President Putin responds to @EmmanuelMacron pic.twitter.com/Ox4kNetHH6

— African (@ali_naka) March 18, 2024

He juxtaposed his 'mandate' with the state of affairs in America. "The whole world is laughing at what is happening there," he said of the United States. "It is just a catastrophe — it is not democracy — what on earth is it?"

Putin was also asked about deceased opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died Feb.16 in a far northern prison of what was officially listed as 'natural causes'. Putin confirmed reports that a major prisoner swap with the West was about to happen just before his "sad" death. On this swap which had been in the works just days before Navalny's unexpected death, Putin explained: "I said: ‘I am agreed’. I had one condition — we exchange him but he never returns."

Concerning the future of the war in Ukraine at a moment cross-border drone attacks have ramped up on Russian cities and energy infrastructure, Putin spoke of possibly establishing a major buffer zone. "I do not exclude that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced at some point, when we deem it appropriate, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ in the territories today under the Kyiv regime," Putin said, but without giving further details.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 11:50

Fallout Continues Over Trump "Bloodbath" Media Hoax

Fallout Continues Over Trump "Bloodbath" Media Hoax

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

The fallout is continuing over the media hoax claiming that Trump warned of a “bloodbath” if he didn’t win the election, when in reality he was speaking in economic terms.

During his speech in Ohio, on Saturday, the former president made comments regarding the car industry, Mexico and China.

If you’re listening, President Xi — and you and I are friends — but he understands the way I deal. Those big monster car manufacturing plants that you’re building in Mexico right now…you’re going to not hire Americans and you’re going to sell the cars to us, no. We’re going to put a 100% tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you’re not going to be able to sell those cars if I get elected,” Trump said.

“Now if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole — that’s gonna be the least of it,” he added. “It’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That will be the least of it. But they’re not going to sell those cars. They’re building massive factories,” he added.

Despite the context being clear, the media reported the story as if Trump had threatened a violent bloodbath in America.

We are witnessing the invention of the "bloodbath" hoax in real-time

Unfortunately for them, we have 𝕏

Media narrative: Full context: pic.twitter.com/jaYDvtGomn

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) March 17, 2024

Despite the hoax being completely demolished on X, some outlets are still reporting the fake story.

Former President Trump says some undocumented immigrants are "not people," warns US will see "bloodbath" if not re-elected https://t.co/mVudRMFYsb pic.twitter.com/djRld4jNWJ

— The Hill (@thehill) March 17, 2024

MSNBC claimed the words represented Trump’s “dark vision for America”.

Journalists across the world are still repeating the hoax.

Jon, a former BBC journalist is happy to believe a clip which grossly distorts what Trump said.

The full clip shows that he was referring to a major economic disaster. Try to be less of an activist if you can. https://t.co/VQ1BwhIJtn

— Chris Rose (@ArchRose90) March 17, 2024

Raheem Kassam highlighted how countless media outlets have used the term “bloodbath” to describe economic downturns and staff layoffs.

Oh. pic.twitter.com/C0VKbOMgRz

— Raheem. (@RaheemKassam) March 17, 2024

The legacy press also routinely uses it to describe political bloodbaths.

The media is so offended by the term “Bloodbath” that they use it all the time.

pic.twitter.com/nKkE1TR9HA

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) March 17, 2024

BREAKING: Joe Biden THREATENED Bernie Sanders with a “BLOODBATH” in the 2020 Primary.

This is disqualifying and terrifying. pic.twitter.com/GcxDOngLFu

— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) March 17, 2024

BREAKING: Newly unearthed post from @politico shows they encouraged Democrats to enact a “BLOODBATH” in the Capitol after losing elections.

Pretty sure this means they have to be shut down for our Democracy or something. https://t.co/Kxs0XOW076 pic.twitter.com/f2Xr4tzVzv

— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) March 17, 2024

Trump haters like Joe Walsh spewed moral outrage at Trump for using the word even though they have done so themselves.

pic.twitter.com/l6SeFWqJV5

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) March 18, 2024

And then there's Keith Olbermann, who like all the rest went all-in on the bloodbath stuff...

This is a terrorist threat, @FBI

Detain him as he leaves the stage

After which America doesn't give a shit where you keep him https://t.co/paSMf16yNP

— Keith Olbermann⌚️ (@KeithOlbermann) March 16, 2024

...despite this hypocritical bullshit...

Oh loooooooooooook!

Even the @nytimes noticed! #Bloodbath #Trump #InYourGutsYouKnowHesNuts pic.twitter.com/6kQM54vNqu

— Keith Olbermann⌚️ (@KeithOlbermann) March 17, 2024

...oh and this...

Stop this motherfucking dictator Trump now https://t.co/dEQubBRM4h

— Keith Olbermann⌚️ (@KeithOlbermann) March 16, 2024

There's always the hope https://t.co/SBlFO3kKnA

— Keith Olbermann⌚️ (@KeithOlbermann) March 16, 2024

Despite getting ratioed into oblivion on X, they’re still refusing to back down.

This Ratio is a “Bloodbath” https://t.co/GyawMNpRdA pic.twitter.com/JrJ8RJj3QV

— ALX 🇺🇸 (@alx) March 18, 2024

Elon Musk labeled journalists “metaphor murderers”.

Metaphor murderers https://t.co/1La2McpKiP

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 18, 2024

They’ll still be whining about this for months to come, just like the “very fine people” hoax.

I promise you MSNBC wine aunts will still be swearing by the bloodbath thing 3 months from now

— Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) March 17, 2024

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 11:30

Caribbean-Spring? Protests Erupt In Cuba Amid Food Shortages, Blackouts

Caribbean-Spring? Protests Erupt In Cuba Amid Food Shortages, Blackouts

A wave of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions reminiscent of the 'Arab Spring' in the Middle East more than a decade ago is starting to emerge across the Caribbean region, triggered by the ascent of civil war in Haiti

This past weekend, the latest uprising unfolded in Santiago, Cuba, about 800 kilometers (500 miles) from Havana. Hundreds of residents took to the streets, decrying hours-long power blackouts and food shortages. 

🚨🇨🇺 PROTESTS BREAK OUT IN CUBA CHANTING "FREEDOM"pic.twitter.com/FYZbl7i8Dw

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 18, 2024

🚨 CUBANS HIT STREETS AGAIN: FACING GHOSTS OF 2021’S BRUTAL CRACKDOWN

Protests flare up in Cuba, recalling the grim aftermath of 2021 - over 1,400 detained, torture cases, and silenced artists. As tensions soar, global calls for action against Cuba’s human rights abuses… https://t.co/uAiybzgDYG pic.twitter.com/LMyRsgmujC

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 18, 2024

According to Reuters, Cuba has plunged into an "unprecedented economic crisis" in recent years, "stoking a record-breaking exodus that has seen upwards of 400,000 people migrate to the United States." 

On X, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed the social unrest:

"Several people have expressed their dissatisfaction with the situation of electrical service and food distribution.

 "The disposition of the authorities of the Party, the State and the Government is to attend to the complaints of our people, listen, dialogue, explain the numerous efforts that are being carried out to improve the situation, always in an atmosphere of tranquility and peace."

Díaz-Canel then blamed anti-government "terrorists" based in the US for causing trouble: 

On Facebook, the US Embassy urged the communist government to respect the protests: 

"We are aware of reports of peaceful protests in Santiago, Bayamo, Granma and elsewhere in Cuba.

"We urge the Cuban government to respect the human rights of the protesters and attend to the legitimate needs of the Cuban people."

State-run media outlet CubaDebate said police had arrived in Santiago to "control the situation" and "prevent" further violence. 

The key question is whether the uprising will spread, especially considering it's unfolding in America's backyard.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 11:10

"Guys, I F**ked Up" - SLERF Developer Accidentally Burns Millions As Memecoin-Mania Grows

"Guys, I F**ked Up" - SLERF Developer Accidentally Burns Millions As Memecoin-Mania Grows

Authored by Prashant Jha via CoinTelegraph.com,

Traders want to make their millions on Solana memecoins, but crypto proponents believe this is risky and would benefit the industry if it ends sooner rather than later...

The Solana blockchain has become a hub for new memecoins as the new bull season kicks off with several new memecoins reaching market capitalizations in the billions of dollars within days of launching.

One memecoin that has grabbed the crypto community’s attention is Slerf. The creator behind the project mistakenly burnt over $10 million in Solana before the launch, however, despite that the memecoin was launched and reached $500 million market cap within hours.

The developer raised 535,000 Solana  tokens to launch the memecoin but accidentally burnt $10.4 million worth of Solana tokens while trying to clear their wallet.

Jeremy Arnold (@jdotarnold) provided a play-by-play on the farce on X...

This guy and a small team created a new memecoin called Slerf. It has something to do with sloths? Who knows. Anyway they pre-sold half the tokens for ~$10m to some 25k buyers. Then the other half were supposed to go on sale starting a few hours ago.

Except the guy who created them accidentally burned (deleted) the pre-sale tokens while releasing the new ones. (Don’t ask me how this works. I have no idea.) He’d also already revoked his ownership of the coin, so he couldn’t mint any replacements. Permanent deletion.

The outcome was that the $10m got vaporized. Everyone who bought in early lost their deposits and got no Slerfs in return.

Here is his initial post on X after realizing he screwed up...

Developer burns $10 million of SOL. Source: Slerf on X

"It's not my project anymore," the dev continued.

"Obviously I don't have $10 million in my pocket to refund everybody, otherwise I'd 100% do it. That is what I'm working on."

But this mistake was very good for attention, and attention is the true value of any memecoin.

So the obvious thing happened and the new tokens that were released shot up around 5,000%.

(This was partially because people realized no existing holders had any coins to sell to drive the price down.)

As of the latest data over $1.5BN in volume has been traded on SLERF.

The Slerf team later went to an X Spaces to elaborate further on the situation.

"I'm sick to my stomach," team member Slorg said in a Space on X.

"I'm literally about to throw up."

"I'm lost for words," they added.

"I don't know what to do."

But the developer found a silver lining...

 

The impact on Solana itself can be seen here...

As TheBlock.co reports, the latest mishap follows a weekend rife with Solana-based memecoin presales, during which various random projects emerged and received significant funding, often amounting to millions of dollars.

The memecoin frenzy has led to comparisons with the Ethereum initial coin offering (ICO) era bubble of 2017 when several crypto projects raised millions of dollars but many failed to deliver.

It appears traders are swapping from ETH to SOL to jump on the memecoin mania

Memecoins are cryptocurrencies stemming from an internet meme or having some other humorous characteristic, but they lack any real-world use case other than being a pop culture reference. These cryptocurrencies are highly speculative and supported by some enthusiastic online communities.

Dogecoin is considered the OG memecoin and received support from Elon Musk during the 2021 bull market. In 2024, multiple memecoins, some barely a week old, have reached billions in market capitalization, creating new crypto millionaires by the hour.

The recent comparison to the ICO presale era of 2017 comes amid many influencers managing to raise millions of dollars in presales to launch new memecoins.

Users on X compared the current memecoin offerings (MCOs) to the Ethereum ICO bubble in 2017 when several crypto projects promised to deliver only to vanish after raising funds. A 2018 report indicated that over 90% of ICO projects failed.

Similarly, there have been several instances where influencers have run away with the presale money or have dumped it on the market right after the launch.

One user on X said the memecoin mania is a more honest version of the 2017 ICO craze and the 2021 nonfungible token/crypto-art bubble, as projects “no longer have to pretend to deliver on a fake white paper and investors no longer have to pretend to be in it for the art.”

Scammer defrauding people during thememecoin frenzy. Source: ZachXBT on X

Stories of a few traders making millions of dollars in a couple of days often attract several others to try their luck. However, on most occasions, they lose a significant chunk of their investment.

A trader’s memecoin portfolio. Source: Elja on X

Crypto proponents claim the memecoin bubble will eventually liquidate millions of new users who blindly put their money into technology with no utility.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 10:50

United Airlines CEO Reassures Everyone Boeing Planes Are Safe After Series Of Incidents

United Airlines CEO Reassures Everyone Boeing Planes Are Safe After Series Of Incidents

On Monday morning, the CEO of United Airlines Holdings Inc. informed passengers that the airline is reviewing a series of aviation incidents involving its commercial jets, including Boeing-made ones.

"Unfortunately, in the past few weeks, our airline has experienced a number of incidents that are reminders of the importance of safety," CEO Scott Kirby wrote in a message to passengers. 

Kirby said, "While they are all unrelated, I want you to know that these incidents have our attention and have sharpened our focus."

Kirby has finally acknowledged a series of aviation mishaps with its Boeing jets but didn't detail the events. So we did: 

🇺🇸 BOEING SUFFERS ANOTHER MID-AIR ENGINE FIRE

The United Airlines flight had to make an emergency landing in Texas minutes after take-off when flames began shooting from one of its engines.

This is the second mid-air engine fire to affect Boeing in the U.S this year, after a… https://t.co/HxaPH1RHeB pic.twitter.com/SKbHofwcZj

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 7, 2024

Up close photos of @United Flight 2477 (Boeing 737 MAX 8) that left the runway and came to a stop in grass at George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) in Houston. @KPRC2 has learned no one was injured.

📸 Janet Bumbarger pic.twitter.com/oH8JZa1lGZ

— Gage Goulding - KPRC 2 (@GageGoulding) March 8, 2024

Full HD video of United flight UA35 taking off from San Francisco and losing a wheel ✈️ https://t.co/VzHSi2NB9T

— RadarBox (@RadarBoxCom) March 8, 2024

And this on Sunday...

hopefully United's Boeings have downgraded to coal-burning engines, cause another airplane malfunction is just too ridiculous at this point https://t.co/Dd3C7RfsBf

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 18, 2024

There's nothing to worry about. 

pic.twitter.com/E2IJzDoCKo

— Sal the Agorist (@SallyMayweather) March 18, 2024

As for the source of the issues, Bloomberg notes that "new maintenance technicians" could be at fault... 

Thanks, Boeing and United, for ruining the flight experience. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 10:30

We Should Thank God For The Communists

We Should Thank God For The Communists

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Thank God:

“Value investors think China is cheap, at some point it’ll turn,” said the CIO, decades spent in HK, investing globally, Asia focused. “Perhaps they’re right,” he said, a light shrug. “But markets require capitalism, and capitalism requires rule of law.” China is one of the most important wildcards to track to understand the global economy, markets, geopolitics. “Confucius believed in rule by law, with the word of a wise, moral, ethical leader being law. Mencius (Confucianism’s 2nd sage) agreed about morals and ethics but argued for rule of law.”

“Xi Jinping believes in rule by law; what he says is law,” continued the CIO. “Now that Xi has shown his hand as he tightens his grip on the Party, economy, markets, what could he possibly say going forward that would entice any thinking person to take real risk?” he asked. “For the first time in my career, the Hong Kong tycoons have accepted that it’s over,” he said. “They feel the US has it in for them, and they see China as un-investable now,” he said. “Their grandparents fled the mainland in ’49 and taught them to never trust the Communists.

“The Party hired Xi in 2012 to clean up the mess of successive governments,” said the same CIO. “Rampant corruption of Party members, excessive dependency on property and fixed asset investment, environmental degradation, wealth inequality.” Existential threats to the Communist Party. “Xi looked at this rot and took it apart. It was his chance to introduce rule of law. Had he done so, he would have created a China that could have overtaken the US. But just like in 1949 he caused China’s talent to flee. We should thank God for the Communists.”

“Xi saw the experiment with openness and wealth accumulation as dangerous to Party control,” he said. “He will subordinate everything to enhance state power in his quest to displace America as the world’s rule setter,” he said. “He’s telling you precisely what he’s going to do. Eat bitterness. And each day the surveillance state grows stronger.” AI will make it more so. “What we see as economic sickness, Xi sees a price worth paying, because at the other side of this challenge is China’s rightful place at the head of the table. That’s his objective.”

“Xi believes he can allocate capital to build China top down,” said the CIO. “He thinks he can create Nvidia by decree. But Jensen Huang’s grandparents fled China’s Communists in 1949. Jensen had a vision that accelerated compute would be the future. He suffered multiple failures, made numerous acquisitions over decades, took enormous risks.” 30yr overnight success. “TSMC likewise realized it needed to shrink the geometry to make it happen. ASML knew it needed to go beyond the current understanding of the physics of etching.”

“TSMC’s gross cash flows that they can invest back in capital expenditure eclipses the entire market cap of China’s semiconductor industry,” he said. “Taiwan has an ecosystem with engineers and suppliers who have worked together and know how to talk to each other and make things happen.” No way China catches up. Nor does Intel. “And Sam Altman wants trillions to build data centers and buy chips. Google wants the same.” Microsoft too. “They’re signaling that this is where the future value lies.”

“We’re entering a world where the value is in hard tech,” said the CIO. “Where doing important things are very difficult and capital intensive.” We have left a world of capital light opportunity - the software era is ending with the arrival of AI. “Google was built with $100mm and 1000 people. It’s the greatest business on earth,” he said. “Compare those two inputs to what Jensen had to build, it’s drastically different. And this will be more the norm for the people who build tremendous value. More dollars spent, more people, more risk, more time.”

Anecdote

“China’s inward turn will still allow for years of 2-4% growth,” said the CIO from HK. “Each year the Party will forecast better times ahead. They’ll say we’re weaning ourselves off bad habits.” Perpetual propaganda. “What’s interesting is that countries across Asia are now waking up to this problem and becoming more dynamic,” he said.

“Having tried everything else for 35yrs of stagnation, Japan appears willing to try capitalism. It has countless tech companies with small global market share.” Consolidation will create real global competitors. “Tokyo realizes that if you want a defense industry you must pay for it. It’s expensive and requires hard tech.” The Europeans are realizing this too.

“Seoul has too much dependence on China. And with Kim up north and US global engagement increasingly uncertain, they’re copying Japan and trying to increase corporate valuations.” Dynamic economies fund stronger militaries.

“Indonesia has been a non-aligned country and now it wants to join the OECD,” he said. “China joined the WTO at the tail end of the Asian financial crisis,” he said.  “Chinese people don’t need to be told how to make money, they sense profit, and go. The WTO was this gigantic green light to stopped cars at the red light.  And they said this is it. If I want to make real money, I need to bet the farm. I’m going to build a big factory because now I can sell everything to everyone in America without a tariff.” Those who raced got rich.

“In India, historically, entrepreneurs didn’t know what would happen when the government changed, so they built one small factory to ensure they didn’t have overcapacity,” he said. “India never scaled. But now you have a stable government with a consistent set of policies,” he said. “Ambani and Adani, they’re in a league all their own. But the next 50 people down the rankings have a chance and they’re going to go for it. These two guys can’t do everything. And the government needs aggressive risk takers to build the country. If you want to be Vanderbilt or Rockefeller this is your moment.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 10:10

Key Events This Week: Central Banks Galore Including A Historic Rate Hike By The BOJ

Key Events This Week: Central Banks Galore Including A Historic Rate Hike By The BOJ

According to DB's Jim Reid, "this could be a landmark week in markets as the last global holdout on negative rates looks set to be removed as the BoJ likely hikes rates from -0.1% tomorrow." That will likely overshadow the FOMC that concludes on Wednesday that will have its own signalling intrigue given recent strong inflation. We also have the RBA meeting tomorrow and the SNB and BoE meetings on Thursday to close out a big week for global central bankers with many EM countries also deciding on policy. We’ll preview the main meetings in more depth below but outside of this we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday as well as inflation reports in Japan (Thursday) and the UK (Wednesday). US housing data also permeates through the week as you'll see in the full global day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual.

Let’s go into detail now, starting with the BoJ tomorrow. We’ve had negative base rates now for 8 years which if is the longest run ever seen for any country in the history of mankind. In fact it is doubtful that pre-historic man was as generous as to charge negative interest rates on lending money prior to this! It also might be one of the longest global runs without any interest rate hikes given the 17 year run that could end tomorrow. So, as Reid puts it, a landmark event.

DB's Chief Japan economist expects the central bank to revise its policy and abandon both NIRP and the multi-tiered current account structure and set rates on all excess reserves at 0.1%. He also sees both the yield curve control (YCC) and the inflation-overshooting commitment ending, replaced by a benchmark for the pace of the bank’s JGB purchasing activity. The house view forecast of 50bps of hikes through 2025 is more hawkish than the market but risks are still tilted to the upside. On Friday, the Japan Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) announced the first tally of the results of this year's shunto spring wage negotiation. The wage increase rate, including the seniority-based wage hike, is 5.28%, which was significantly higher than expected. This year will probably see the highest wage settlements since 1991 which given Japan’s recent history is an incredible turnaround. This wage data news has firmed up expectations for tomorrow.

With regards to the FOMC which concludes on Wednesday, DB economists expect only minor revisions to the meeting statement that saw an overhaul last meeting. With regards to the SEP, the growth and unemployment forecasts are unlikely to change but the 2024 inflation forecasts potentially could; elsewhere, expect the Fed to revise up their 2024 core PCE inflation forecast by a tenth to 2.5%, although they see meaningful risks that it gets revised up even higher to 2.6%. In our economists' view, a 2.5% core PCE reading would allow just enough wiggle room to keep the 2024 fed funds rate at 4.6% (75bps of cuts). However, if core PCE inflation were revised up to 2.6%, it would likely entail the Fed moving their base case back to 50bps of cuts, as this would essentially reflect the same forecasts as the September 2023 SEP.

Beyond 2024, DB expect officials to build in less policy easing due to a higher r-star. If two of the eight officials currently at 2.5% move up by 25bps, then the long-run median forecast would edge up to 2.6%. This could be justified by a one-tenth upgrade to the long-run growth forecast. After all this information is released the presser from Powell will of course be heavily scrutinised, especially on how Powell sees recent inflation data. Powell should also provide an update on discussions around QT but it is unlikely they are ready yet to release updated guidance.

One additional global highlight this week might be a big fall in UK inflation on Wednesday, suggesting that headline CPI will slow to 3.4% (vs 4% in January) and core to 4.5% (5.1%). Elsewhere there is plenty of ECB speaker appearances including President Lagarde on Wednesday. They are all highlighted in the day-by-day guide at the end.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 18

  • Data: US March New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, China February retail sales, industrial production, property investment, Eurozone January trade balance, Canada February raw materials, industrial product price index, existing home sales

Tuesday March 19

  • Data: US January total net TIC flows, February housing starts, building permits, Japan January capacity utilization, Germany and Eurozone March Zew survey, Eurozone Q4 labour costs, Canada February CPI
  • Central banks: BoJ decision, ECB's Guindos speaks, RBA decision
  • Auctions: US 20-yr Bond ($13bn, reopening)

Wednesday March 20

  • Data: UK February CPI, PPI, RPI, January house price index, China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, Japan February trade balance, Italy January industrial production, Germany February PPI, Eurozone March consumer confidence, January construction output
  • Central banks: Fed's decision, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, De Cos, Schnabel, Nagel and Holzmann speak, BoC summary of deliberations
  • Earnings: Tencent, Micron

Thursday March 21

  • Data: US, UK, Japan, Germany, France and Eurozone March PMIs, US March Philadelphia Fed business outlook, February leading index, existing home sales, Q4 current account balance, initial jobless claims, UK February public finances, Japan February national CPI, Italy January current account balance, France March manufacturing confidence, February retail sales, ECB January current account, EU27 February new car registrations
  • Central banks: BoE decision, SNB decision
  • Earnings: Nike, FedEx, Lululemon, BMW, Enel
  • Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS ($16bn, reopening)
  • Other: European Union summit, through March 22

Friday March 22

  • Data: UK March GfK consumer confidence, February retail sales, Germany March Ifo survey, January import price index, Canada January retail sales

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales reports on Thursday. The March FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell, Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, and President Bostic.

Monday, March 18

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Tuesday, March 19

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, February (GS +9.4%, consensus +7.4%, last -14.8%); Building permits, February (consensus +2.0%, last -0.3%)

Wednesday, March 20

  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, March 19 – March 20 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we continue to expect the committee to target a first cut in June, but we now expect 3 cuts in 2024 in June, September, and December (vs. 4 previously) given the slightly higher inflation path. We continue to expect 4 cuts in 2025 and now expect 1 final cut in 2026 to an unchanged terminal rate forecast of 3.25-3.5%. The main risk to our expectation is that FOMC participants might be more concerned about the recent inflation data and less convinced that inflation will resume its earlier soft trend. In that case, they might bump up their 2024 core PCE inflation forecast to 2.5% and show a 2-cut median.

Thursday, March 21

  • 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$209.5bn, last -$200.3bn)
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, March (GS 3.2, consensus -1.3, last 5.2): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell 2pt to 3.2 in March. While the measure is elevated relative to other surveys, we expect a boost from the rebound in foreign manufacturing activity and the pickup in US production and freight activity.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 16 (GS 210k, consensus 215k, last 209k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 9 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,811k)
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 51.8, last 52.2): S&P Global US services PMI, March preliminary (consensus 52.0, last 52.3)
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS +1.2%, consensus -1.6%, last +3.1%)
  • 02:00 PM Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael for Supervision Barr will participate in a fireside chat in Ann Arbor, MI with students and faculty. A moderated Q&A is expected. On February 14, Barr said the Fed is “confident we are on a path to 2% inflation,” but the recent report showing prices rose faster than anticipated in January “is a reminder that the path back to 2% inflation may be a bumpy one.” Barr also noted that “we need to see continued good data before we can begin the process of reducing the federal funds rate.”

Friday, March 22

  • 09:00 AM Fed Reserve Chair Powell speaks: The Federal Reserve Board will host a Fed Listens event in Washington D.C. on “Transitioning to the Post-Pandemic Economy.” Chair Powell will deliver opening remarks. Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will moderate conversations with leaders from various organizations. On March 6, Chair Powell noted in his congressional testimony that if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.
  • 12:00 PM Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in a virtual event on “International Economic and Monetary Design.” A moderated Q&A is expected.
  • 04:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a moderated conversation at the 2024 Household Finance Conference in Atlanta. On March 4, Bostic said, “I need to see more progress to feel fully confident that inflation is on a sure path to averaging 2% over time.” Bostic also noted, “I expect the first interest rate cut, which I have penciled in for the third quarter, will be followed by a pause in the following meeting.”

Source: DB, Goldman, BofA

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 09:59

Supreme Court To Hear Arguments In Biden Admin’s Censorship Of Social Media Posts

Supreme Court To Hear Arguments In Biden Admin’s Censorship Of Social Media Posts

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court will soon hear oral arguments in a case that concerns what two lower courts found to be a “coordinated campaign” by top Biden administration officials to suppress disfavored views on key public issues such as COVID-19 vaccine side effects and pandemic lockdowns.

President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union address in the House Chamber of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 7, 2024. (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)

The Supreme Court has scheduled a hearing on March 18 in Murthy v. Missouri, which started when the attorneys general of two states, Missouri and Louisiana, filed suit alleging that social media companies such as Facebook were blocking access to their platforms or suppressing posts on controversial subjects.

The initial lawsuit, later modified by an appeals court, accused Biden administration officials of engaging in what amounts to government-led censorship-by-proxy by pressuring social media companies to take down posts or suspend accounts.

Some of the topics that were targeted for downgrade and other censorious actions were voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, the COVID-19 lab leak theory, vaccine side effects, the social harm of pandemic lockdowns, and the Hunter Biden laptop story.

The plaintiffs argued that high-level federal government officials were the ones pulling the strings of social media censorship by coercing, threatening, and pressuring social media companies to suppress Americans’ free speech.

‘Unrelenting Pressure’

In a landmark ruling, Judge Terry Doughty of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana granted a temporary injunction blocking various Biden administration officials and government agencies such as the Department of Justice and FBI from collaborating with big tech firms to censor posts on social media.

Later, the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit agreed with the district court’s ruling, saying it was “correct in its assessment—‘unrelenting pressure’ from certain government officials likely ‘had the intended result of suppressing millions of protected free speech postings by American citizens.’”

The judges wrote, “We see no error or abuse of discretion in that finding.”

The ruling was appealed to the Supreme Court, and on Oct. 20, 2023, the high court agreed to hear the case while also issuing a stay that indefinitely blocked the lower court order restricting the Biden administration’s efforts to censor disfavored social media posts.

Supreme Court Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, and Clarence Thomas would have denied the Biden administration’s application for a stay.

“At this time in the history of our country, what the Court has done, I fear, will be seen by some as giving the Government a green light to use heavy-handed tactics to skew the presentation of views on the medium that increasingly dominates the dissemination of news,” Justice Alito wrote in a dissenting opinion.

“That is most unfortunate.”

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito poses in Washington on April 23, 2021. (Erin Schaff/Reuters)

The Supreme Court has other social media cases on its docket, including a challenge to Republican-passed laws in Florida and Texas that prohibit large social media companies from removing posts because of the views they express.

Oral arguments were heard on Feb. 26 in the Florida and Texas cases, with debate focusing on the validity of laws that deem social media companies “common carriers,” a status that could allow states to impose utility-style regulations on them and forbid them from discriminating against users based on their political viewpoints.

The tech companies have argued that the laws violate their First Amendment rights.

The Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision in the Florida and Texas cases by June 2024.

‘Far Beyond’ Constitutional

Some of the controversy in Murthy v. Missouri centers on whether the district court’s injunction blocking Biden administration officials and federal agencies from colluding with social media companies to censor posts was overly broad.

In particular, arguments have been raised that the injunction would prevent innocent or borderline government “jawboning,” such as talking to newspapers about the dangers of sharing information that might aid terrorists.

But that argument doesn’t fly, according to Philip Hamburger, CEO of the New Civil Liberties Alliance, which represents most of the individual plaintiffs in Murthy v. Missouri.

In a series of recent statements on the subject, Mr. Hamburger explained why he believes that the Biden administration’s censorship was “far beyond anything that could be constitutional” and that concern about “innocent or borderline” cases is unfounded.

For one, he said that the censorship that is highlighted in Murthy v. Missouri relates to the suppression of speech that was not criminal or unlawful in any way.

Mr. Hamburger also argued that “the government went after lawful speech not in an isolated instance, but repeatedly and systematically as a matter of policy,” which led to the suppression of entire narratives rather than specific instances of expression.

“The government set itself up as the nation’s arbiter of truth—as if it were competent to judge what is misinformation and what is true information,” he wrote.

In retrospect, it turns out to have suppressed much that was true and promoted much that was false.

The suppression of reports on the Hunter Biden laptop just before the 2020 presidential election on the premise that it was Russian disinformation, for instance, was later shown to be unfounded.

Some polls show that if voters had been aware of the report, they would have voted differently.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 09:45

Elon Musk Reveals Two "Very Mentally Ill" People With Guns Tried To Assassinate Him

Elon Musk Reveals Two "Very Mentally Ill" People With Guns Tried To Assassinate Him

On Sunday night, Elon Musk revealed in an X Spaces with Dr. Gad Saad, a professor of marketing at the John Molson School of Business at Montreal's Concordia University, that two "very mentally ill" people have tried to kill him in Austin, Texas. 

Near the end of the one-hour interview, Musk discussed his level of fame and how it's been problematic when he goes out in public. He said people are super nice, but every time he goes to restaurants, there are lines of people who want selfies with him. 

"I can't easily go to the mall or a movie theater or walk around without creating a ruckus," the world's richest man said. 

Saad asked Musk: "Do you have security around in your daily life?"

Musk responded: "Yes. It's very rare for me to get death threats." 

However, he said, "I have had two cases in the last six months where two people, unfortunately very mentally ill, came to try to kill me in Austin with guns." 

"I have had two cases in the last 6 months where two people, unfortunately very mentally ill, came to try to kill me."

一 Elon Musk pic.twitter.com/W9yhKHOJwj

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) March 18, 2024

In December 2022, Musk posted a video of a "crazy stalker" who followed a vehicle carrying his son X Æ A-Xii. The billionaire then wasted no time suspending X accounts for 'doxxed real-time location info.'  

Meanwhile, Musk's commitment to 'free speech' X has infuriated Deep State entities, leftist corporate media outlets, and radical Democrats. The Biden administration has been increasingly weaponizing federal agencies after the billionaire's companies. It wouldn't be surprising if the two crazies that came after Musk in Austin were flaming libtards. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 09:30

Rates Markets Are At A Hawkish Tipping-Point

Rates Markets Are At A Hawkish Tipping-Point

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The rates market in the US is once again on the threshold of expecting rates to peak at a higher level than the Federal Reserve. If the central bank does not raise its projections next week, the market may take the initiative and price higher rates.

Traders have been consistently clear for most of this cycle that Fed rate rises will eventually have to be met with swift cuts to restabilize the economy. Only on a few, fairly brief occasions did pricing get ahead of the Fed and rates were expected to peak at a higher level than the central bank’s projections.

We could be knocking on the door of another of these episodes. The peak expected rate as inferred from fed funds futures has been moored almost identically at the peak rate expected by the Fed itself, based on the FOMC’s dots. The chart below shows the previous times pricing exceeded the Fed’s projections.

There are four distinct episodes, all of them driven by a sell-off in rates markets rather than a move lower in the dots. As shown in the chart, the first two were when CPI was rising and had not yet peaked. The third was a higher-than-expected CPI print, while the fourth was January 2023’s monster payrolls number.

None lasted long, with the previous episode being curtailed by the SVB crisis, but the move higher in rates on each occasion was rapid and brutal if you were on the wrong side of it.

Speculation is mounting that the Fed at its meeting might reduce the number of cuts expected.

All else equal, that would take the market back below the dots.

But traders are beginning to get uneasy about “sticky” inflation. Sticky might not be the problem - there are multiple signs that inflation will start rising again, as discussed here and here. Moreover, it’s not just a US phenomenon: globally there are signs that the disinflation trend is ending.

The market may well get impatient and move rate expectations higher if the Fed does not move the dots higher next week, sensing a policy mistake is in the offing. And if inflation keeps rising, then this latest episode where the market out-hawks the Fed may not be so brief.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 08:51

Oil Hits New Cycle High After China Data, Russian Refinery Attacks, Iraq Supply Cuts

Oil Hits New Cycle High After China Data, Russian Refinery Attacks, Iraq Supply Cuts

Oil prices hit a fresh four-month high as macro-economic data from China came in ahead of expectations, Iraq said it has reduced its oil exports for the coming months to absorb the oversupply from Jan. and Feb, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries heightened geopolitical risks and reduced the amount of distilled product produced in Russia. As a result, WTI broke out to test $82 overnight, hitting a five month high, while Brent breached $86, a level that seemed inconceivable in late December when the price was in the low $70s.

Source: Bloomberg

Turning to the catalysts, China's January-February activity data came in above market expectations. Industrial production growth edged up in January-February, against market expectation of a slowdown, as the boost from computer and ferrous smelting industries more than offset the drag from automobile and electric machinery industries.

Fixed asset investment growth also accelerated in January-February, thanks to faster growth in manufacturing and "other" (mostly services and agriculture-related sectors) investment. 

However, it wasn't all rainbows for China as year-on-year growth in retail sales and services industry output both slowed in January-February on a high base last year (when pent-up demand was released right after China reopening).

Additionally, the big kahuna showed no signs of improvement as property-related activity worsened broadly and meaningfully in year-on-year terms in January-February, reflecting either unfavorable base effects or sequential weakness.

Labor market statistics remained largely stable. The nationwide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) moved slightly higher to 5.3% in January-February from 5.1% in December, in line with its seasonal patterns, while the 31-city metric remained unchanged at 5.0%.

Argaam News reported that China's crude oil refining volume at the beginning of this year reached its highest levels ever, with increasing demand for fuel, according to government data issued today, March 18.

The volume of oil refined in January and February rose 3% year-on-year to a record level of 118.76 million tons, which is equivalent to 14.51 million barrels per day, Bloomberg calculations showed. This is due to the rise in Chinese demand for fuel during the Lunar New Year holiday, which began in mid-February.

According to the data, the demand for oil rose during the first two months of this year by 6.1% to 14.36 million barrels per day.

All of these factors combined to push WTI to new four month highs...

“It’s mostly driven by Chinese data,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG who said that “Chinese macroeconomic data — including refinery runs and apparent oil demand — have come in on the positive side.”

Meanwhile, in Russia, drone strikes over the weekend hit multiple plants, some deep within the country’s territory. Overnight, Goldman's commodities team published a "chart of the week" (available to pro subs in the usual place) which showed a jump in "unplanned Russian refinery maintenance" to 0.7mb/d after March 13 drone attacks at Rosneft's 0.4kb/d refinery, which is the largest crude-processing facility in Russia.

As consequence, Russian diesel exports have been falling for weeks after the drone attacks on Russian refineries that first started in January. This supports Goldman's "structurally bullish view on refinery margins as we see refinery disruptions as an upside risk and initiated a long diesel margin trade."

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore, echoed Goldman's optimism: “The strikes on Russian refineries added $2 to $3 a barrel of risk premium for crude last week, which remains in place as we start this week with more attacks over the weekend."

And with prices surging, Wall Street's penguins weren't far behind and Morgan Stanley promptly raised its Brent crude price forecast to $90 a barrel by 3Q, citing tightening supply-demand balances.

Underpinning the gains is persistent, gradual declines in US oil inventories since the start of the year, together with the latest bullish IEA report indicating higher need for oil from OPEC and thus likely continued global deficit and inventory declines,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB.

Finally, Bloomberg reports that in the coming days, traders will get plenty of market insights from the CERAWeek conference in Houston, which starts on Monday. Among speakers scheduled on the opening day are the chief executive officers of Exxon Mobil Corp., Saudi Aramco, Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 08:37

Haitian National Arraigned For Rape Of 14-Year-Old Girl At Massachusetts Hotel

Haitian National Arraigned For Rape Of 14-Year-Old Girl At Massachusetts Hotel

Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A 26-year-old Haitian national has been charged with raping a 14-year-old girl at a Massachusetts hotel being used to house illegal immigrants under the Gov. Maura Healey administration.

Cory Alvarez was arraigned on the charges of child rape on Thursday, March 14, at the Hingham District Court. The alleged assault took place at the Comfort Inn in Rockland, according to a press release issued by police. Rockland is located about 22 miles south of Boston.

Patrol Lt. Thomas MacDonald of the Rockland Police Department told The Epoch Times that since the state secured the 100-room hotel as a shelter for illegal immigrants in October, the police have taken on a heavy volume of calls related to the property.

“We’re there a lot, he said.

Lt. McDonald said that Mr. Alvarez, the victim, and her family are among the illegal immigrants being housed at the Rockland hotel.

The attack in Massachusetts has drawn national outrage with some levying blame against President Joe Biden for it.

Biden flew this illegal dirtbag into our Country,” Congressman Tim Burchett (R-Tennessee) wrote on X. “No border, no budget. Shut it down.”

Others place blame more locally such as state Rep. Peter Durant (R-Spencer) who berated Ms. Healey and her administration for the assault.

“I am appalled and deeply sadded by the news of rape at the migrant shelter in Rockland,” Mr. Durant told The Epoch Times. “This heinous act with the shelter is not only acceptable, but also indicates systemic failures of the Healey Administration.”

Gov. Healey did not respond to inquiries from The Epoch Times about the girl’s rape.

Her administration has been under fire, mostly by conservatives, for flooding the state with unvetted illegal immigrants and overusing taxpayers money to buy up hotels and other housing to shelter them,

The Democratic governor claims that she is mandated to provide housing for migrants under the state’s right-to-shelter laws. Republicans disagree, saying the 1973-enacted law was intended to house U.S. citizens only.

Mr. Durant, who has led efforts to pass amendments clarifying the that right to shelter law applies to U.S. citizens only, said the governor’s claims are disingenuous since she has been part of efforts to block such measures.

Ms. Healey, who declared a state of emergency last year when the state hit its 7,500 cap as more illegal immigrants poured into the state, has called for sympathy for them, saying most are good people, escaping brutal conditions and needing the support of Americans.

Cory. Alvarez, of Haiti, on March 14, 2024. (Rockland Police Department)

Last August, her administration even asked Bay Staters to consider opening up their homes to sponsor migrants.

“If you have an extra room or suite in your home, please consider hosting a family. Housing and shelter is our most pressing need to become a sponsor family,” said Lt. Governor Kim Driscoll in a press release.

Mr. Durant told The Epoch Times that the rape at the Rockland hotel is a tragic sign that the flow of illegal immigrants into the state needs to be stopped, instead of looking for more places to put them.

He said he has received countless reports that demonstrate migrant shelters across Massachusetts are plagued with a pandemonium of serious problems—including drug and sex trafficking, violent crimes, outbreaks of fires, and the spread of diseases.

Last week, Massachusetts health officials confirmed that there was a “small” outbreak of chickenpox at a 400-person capacity migrant shelter recently set up in a popular rec center in Boston’s historic black neighborhood of Roxbury.

The recent March 13 rape of a 14-year-old girl in Massachusetts at a state-run migrant shelter falls on the same week Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) agents from the Boston division of the U.S Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) apprehended several migrants living illegally in the state with sexual assault convictions in their native countries.

On the same day Mr. Alvarez is alleged to have raped the 14-year-old girl at the Rockland hotel, ICE officials arrested a Brazilian fugitive found living illegally in Framingham.

According to a statement from the Boston ICE office, the 51-year-old is wanted on charges of raping a 14-year-old last July in Brazil.

In just a one-week sweep conducted nationwide in January, ERO agents report that they arrested 171 “noncitizens” with pending charges or convictions for murder, homicide, and assault of children. A similar one-week sweep conducted last month turned up 275 migrants with sex convictions living illegally in the country.

The sweep results come amid the release of the Department of Homeland Security U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement 2025 Budget Overview, showing that the Biden administration proposes to cut in half the number of deportations conducted in the United States.

It also comes amid outrage over last month’s brutal murder of 22-year-old Laken Riley, allegedly at the hands of a Venezuelan man found to be living in the U.S. illegally.

A week prior to the rape of the Massachusetts girl, President Joe Biden flubbed up Ms. Riley’s name when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) heckled him to “ say her name” during his annual State of the Union address.

Instead, President Biden said the name Lincoln Riley.

Prior to Ms. Riley’s murder was the 2022 rape and murder of 20-year-old Kayla Hamilton in Aberdeen, Maryland, reportedly by a 16-year-old MS-13 gang member from El Salvador found to be living illegally in the United States.

Because he was a minor, he was placed in foster care housing by health and human services workers.

The migrant, who had visible MS13 tattoos, according to ERO from Maryland, was placed in the same group home as Ms. Hamilton—described by her mother as “functionally autistic.” It is where he is alleged to have raped, then murdered her.

Members of the violent gang have also been discovered living illegally in Massachusetts.

On Feb. 19, Boston ICE agents arrested a 44-year-old MS-13 gang member, also from El Salvador, found to be living illegally in Foxboro.

Other child rapists have also been previously arrested in Massachusetts.

In November, Saulo Cardona Ferreira, wanted for raping a 5-year-old in his home country of Brazil, was arrested by ICE on the swanky atoll of Martha’s Vineyard, a self-proclaimed sanctuary community.

In addition to hotels, rec centers, and offices, Ms. Healey has housed illegal immigrants in places that include Boston’s Logan Airport where two of the planes involved in the 9/11 attack departed from. The attacks were found to be carried out by Islamic terrorists from Saudi Arabia living in America unlawfully under expired temporary visas.

William Gheen, Founder of Americans For Legal Immigration PAC (ALIPAC), told The Epoch Times that the saddest part of the rape of the 14-year-old girl in Massachusetts is that it is probably just “the beginning.”

“The number of victims of these open-border government policies, corrupt politicians, and sinister power groups are increasing and things are about to get worse with Venezuelan prisoners and Haitian cannibal gangs on their way!” he said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 08:30

Futures Surge Led By Tech Meltup Ahead Of Fed, BOJ Decisions

Futures Surge Led By Tech Meltup Ahead Of Fed, BOJ Decisions

US stock futures and global markets are higher led by Tech with the Mag7 and semis higher pre-mkt while small-caps underperform ahead of two key central bank decisions - by the Fed, BOJ and BOE - while Nvidia has two key events this week which may be even more market-moving. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were 0.73% higher while Nasdaq futures gained 1.1%. Tech was boosted by news from Bloomberg  that Apple may use Google's woke AI chatbot Gemini to power the iPhone's AI features. Bond yields and USD are flat, while commodity strength is seen in both Ags and Energy, where oil hit a fresh four-month high as macro-economic data from China came in ahead of expectations, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries heightened geopolitical risks. According to JPM's weekly preview, this is a catalyst-heavy week as the markets may be approaching an inflection point with Mag7 appearing extended, positioning getting stretched, and the potential for bond yields to reprice higher as economic growth is elevated amid above-target inflation. Today's US data calendar is light and keeps focus on Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting, where first rate hike in 17 years is expected, as well as Wednesday’s Fed policy announcement.

In premarket trading, Google parent company Alphabet rallied almost 4% in premarket trading after Bloomberg reported that Apple is in talks to build Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence engine into the iPhone; Nvidia and Tesla added more than 2%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • B. Riley Financial (RILY US) fell 12% after the boutique investment bank failed to file its audited results after an extension period ended.
  • Nvidia (NVDA US) rose 2.3% after HSBC raised it price target on the chip giant. The bank says the company’s 2025 AI road map provides more pricing power and will help overcome 2H24 product transition risks.
  • PepsiCo (PEP US) advanced 1.7% after the beverage and snack company was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which said the issues driving their downgrade of the stock last year have now played out.
  • Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) fell 9.0% after CEO Jared Isaacman said bids from potential suitors have failed to value firm adequately.

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday is set to dictate the direction of global stocks for the next quarter, with policymakers likely to stick to forecasts for three interest-rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike interest rates tomorrow, potentially ending the world’s last negative interest rate regime. In the US, the main focus comes Wednesday, when Fed policy makers gather for a meeting that has the potential to set the tone for global stocks for the next quarter. While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the central bank was close to having the confidence to cut, bond traders appear to have painfully surrendered to a higher-for-longer reality. The 10-year Treasury yield held near a three-week high on Monday, having risen more than 20 basis points last week. A gauge of the dollar was steady.

“The recent market repricing has put policy expectations essentially at Fed estimates,” said Anthi Tsouvali, multi asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. The decision will likely provide “another signal that easing of economic conditions is coming, pushing equity markets higher,” Tsouvali said.

European stocks hover near record levels ahead of rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England later this week. The Stoxx 600 Index was largely unchanged, with autos, real estate and the energy sector among top gainers. Among individual stocks, Haleon falls after Pfizer said it plans to sell about £2 billion of its shares.  Here are some of the biggest movers Monday:

  • Aston Martin gains as much as 11% in early trading as Bank of America upgrades the stock to buy from neutral, saying the British carmaker will turn the corner after a trough in 1Q24.
  • Reckitt Benckiser advances as much as 5.9%, rallying from Friday’s record drop triggered by a US verdict related to baby formula. Barclays says the move was a “substantial over-reaction.”
  • LPP gains as much a 11% after plunging 36% on Friday following a report by activist short-seller Hindenburg Research that said the company’s withdrawal from Russia was a “sham.”
  • Alstom gains as much as 10% after the French rail systems firm saw its rating upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, which bets that the “worst is now behind the group.”
  • Signify gains as much as 8.5%, the most in almost five months, after Barclays double-upgrades the lighting manufacturer to overweight, citing a “compelling” risk-reward.
  • Discovery shares rise as much as 3.8% before turning negative, after the financial services company said it expects normalized profit from operations to increase by between 10% and 15% y/y.
  • Chemring rises as much as 5.9% after the defense market supplier won new work in Europe worth just under £90m, partly thanks to the EU’s efforts to boost supplies of ammunition to Ukraine.
  • Richemont shares fall as much as 2%, after ZKB cut its recommendation on the luxury firm to market perform from outperform, seeing risks from the high prior-year baseline.
  • Haleon shares fall as much as 3.2%, the most since Nov. 2, as biggest shareholder Pfizer plans to reduce its stake in the UK consumer health company to about 24% from 32%.
  • Logitech shares fall as much as 8.2% after the Swiss manufacturer of computer peripherals said CFO Chuck Boynton will step down after just 13 months in the role.
  • Meyer Burger shares fall as much as 18% after the solar panel maker announced a CHF200m rights issue, which is larger than the company’s market cap.
  • Hannover Re shares rose, recouping earlier losses, following a stronger-than-expected dividend and in-line results.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, led by Japan and China, as investors brace for an event-heavy week that includes monetary policy outcomes in Japan and the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.8%, the most since March 8, with technology and industrial stocks contributing the most.  In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index climbed the most in a month and the yen traded weaker against the dollar, amid signs markets have priced in the potential for an interest-rate increase. “Japanese stocks are rising, driven by weakness of the yen, and expectations that the currency won’t strengthen even if the central bank hikes,” said Charu Chanana, a strategist at Saxo Capital Markets based in Singapore.

“The weaker yen from widening US-Japan rates and reduced uncertainty for the BOJ meeting should push Japanese stocks higher today,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory. US yields have been gaining amid bets on fewer rate cuts this year. “Defensives are likely to rise, including electric power and gas, land transportation, materials, non-ferrous metals and steel.”

Mainland China pared early gains as data released on Monday pointed to continued troubles for the property sector and weakness consumer spending. Property development investments slid 9% from last year in February, while retail sales missed expectations.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is also little changed. The yen falls 0.1% even as speculation mounts the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates on Tuesday.

In rates, treasuries are steady ahead of the Fed decision on Wednesday. US 10-year yields are flat at 4.3% with front-end outperforming, steepening the curve. US front-end yields richer by 1.3bp on the day with intermediate and long-end little changed, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s by 1bp-2bp; Bunds are underperforming by 2bp in the sector. Germany’s bond market sees bigger bear-steepening move, with long-end around 3bp cheaper on the day after erasing gains. Treasury auctions this week include $13b 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $16b 10-year TIPS reopening Thursday.

In commodities, oil hit a fresh four-month high as macro-economic data from China came in ahead of expectations, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries heightened geopolitical risks. Morgan Stanley increased its Brent crude price forecast to $90 a barrel by 3Q, citing tightening supply-demand balances. Over the weekend, BHP is reported to have stood down around a quarter of the workers constructing its West Musgrave nickel and copper project in Western Australia, according to the Australian Financial Review.  Spot gold is unchanged at $2,156/oz.

Bitcoin holds just above $68k after volatile price action over the weekend; Ethereum is also lower trading around $3,500.

The US economic data calendar includes March New York Fed services business activity (8:30am) and NAHB housing market index (10am); later this week are housing starts/building permits, manufacturing PMI and new home sales. Nvidia CEO Huang is set to speak on AI at 4pm ET. There are no Fed speakers scheduled before March 20 policy decision.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,193.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 504.60
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 176.23
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 534.99
  • Nikkei up 2.7% to 39,740.44
  • Topix up 1.9% to 2,721.99
  • Hang Seng Index little changed at 16,737.12
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.0% to 3,084.93
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 72,815.76
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,675.85
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,685.84
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0896
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $86.10/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,152.61
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 103.39

Top Overnight News

  • China’s YTD (Jan/Feb) industrial production came in solidly ahead of plan (+7% vs. the Street +5.2%), and fixed asset investment beat expectations too, while retail sales were essentially inline (+5.5% vs. the Street +5.6%) and property investment remained in the doldrums. RTRS
  • China’s marriage rate rose in 2023, the first increase in nine years. SCMP
  • Brazil launches a slew of anti-dumping investigations into Chinese products (this is the latest sign of pushback by a government concerned about China responding to slow domestic growth by flooding the world with imports). FT
  • South Ossetia, a region that broke away from Georgia and calls itself an independent state, has discussed becoming part of Russia with Moscow officials, Russian news agency RIA cited the head of South Ossetia's parliament as saying on Sunday. RTRS
  • Trump advisors presented him with three names to become Fed chair: Kevin Hassett, Arthur Laffer, and Kevin Warsh. WSJ
  • Mike Pence said he will not endorse Trump, reflecting the deep divisions between the two men. The Hill
  • Evidence is mounting that many Americans have reached their limit for tolerating higher prices, raising questions about how much consumer expenditures will continue to power US economic growth this year. FT
  • One of the most pressing issues facing Donald Trump is the financial disparity he and allied groups now face with Mr. Biden and the Democratic Party. Democrats have boasted of entering February with $130 million. The Trump operation did not release a full total, but his campaign account and the Republican National Committee had around $40 million. NYT
  • GOOGL is in talks to license its Gemini AI technology to Apple for use in the iPhone (Apple will incorporate some of its own AI technology in the next iPhone, but lacks the powerful generative AI models of Google and OpenAI). BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were somewhat mixed after quiet weekend newsflow and as participants brace for this week's busy slate of central bank announcements including tomorrow's crucial BoJ decision, while better-than-expected Chinese activity data had little lasting effect. ASX 200 traded cautiously with the index contained by underperformance in real estate and energy. Nikkei 225 outperformed despite weak Machinery Orders and with many anticipating a policy shift at tomorrow's BoJ announcement, while momentum in the index was helped by currency weakness and softer yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both ultimately positive after the Hang Seng pared earlier losses with the help of tech strength but with gains capped by weakness in property, while the mainland was gradually underpinned following better-than-expected Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.

Top Asian News

  • China's NBS said with macro policy, the economy continued to recover but noted that the property market is still in the process of adjustment and stated that China can achieve this year's growth target.
  • China’s Vice Commerce Minister said they are studying cutting new energy vehicle insurance premium rates and improving NEV maintenance service capabilities to reduce buyer worries, according to Yicai.
  • China’s air passenger numbers rose 44.6% Y/Y to 62.48mln trips in February with international passenger traffic up 593.4% Y/Y to 81.8% of 2019 levels and domestic air passenger traffic up 35.5% Y/Y in February.
  • India is to begin voting in the national elections on April 19th which will end on June 1st and India will count the votes in the national elections on June 4th.
  • China’s strong factory output and investment growth at the start of the year raised doubts over how soon policymakers will step up support still needed to boost demand and reach an ambitious growth target, according to Bloomberg

European bourses are mostly firmer, though with clear underperformance in the SMI (-0.6%), which is hampered by losses in Logitech (-7.5%). European sectors are mixed; Real Estate takes the top spot, whilst Telecoms is found at the foot of the pile. US equity futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.2%) are entirely in the green, with clear outperformance in the NQ; Google (+2.5%) benefits from Apple/Gemini related news and Nvidia (+2.1%) gains ahead of its GTC

Top European News

  • EU is reportedly mulling joining the US in reviewing risks of Chinese legacy chips, according to Bloomberg sources; flagging potential risks to national security and supply chains.
  • UK PM Sunak’s strategists are planning another tax-cutting budget in September ahead of an election in October or November if he can survive amid doubts about his leadership spreading in the Conservative Party, while Sunak’s government is said to be facing the same levels of economic misery that led to the Conservative Party’s defeat in 1997, according to Bloomberg citing the Misery Index.
  • ECB’s de Cos said it is normal that they should begin cutting rates if their macroeconomic forecasts are met in the coming months and that June would be a good date to start, while he believes the current degree of consensus is very high and he hopes this will continue, according to an interview with Spanish newspaper El Periodico.
  • ECB's Knot said the eurozone has avoided a recession and that he has pencilled in June to start cutting rates, while he added that where they take it from there will be data dependent.
  • Fitch affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Malta at A+; Outlook Stable, while S&P affirmed Spain at A; Outlook Stable.

FX

  • Contained trade for DXY within tight parameters of 103.36-51 with markets in "wait-and-see" mode ahead of a slew of risk-events (Fed, BoJ, RBA, BoE, PMIs).
  • EUR is touch firmer vs. the USD but in quiet newsflow with the pair running out of steam ahead ahead of Friday's 1.0899 peak and the psych 1.09 mark.
  • GBP is flat vs. the Dollar and marginally softer vs. the EUR. UK newsflow over the weekend has been non-incremental ahead of a busy week of UK updates including, CPI, PMIs, Retail Sales and the BoE policy announcement. For now, Cable is stuck within Friday's 1.2725-59 range.
  • JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD with USD/JPY back on a 149 handle. However, conviction in price action is likely to be limited ahead of the BoJ tomorrow, trading within a 149.32-148.92 range.
  • Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD alongside the favourable risk environment. AUD/USD went as high as 0.6574 but unable to test Friday's peak of 0.6582. NZD/USD also edging higher but still shy of the 0.61 mark.
  • PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0943 vs exp. 7.1995 (prev. 7.0975)

Fixed Income

  • USTs are incrementally softer given the modestly constructive risk tone after China's activity data while the US looks to the Nvidia keynote this evening and then the FOMC on Wednesday.
  • A contained start for Bunds ahead of a blockbuster week, including policy announcements from the Fed, BoJ and the BoE. Currently holds around 131.70 and garners support at 131.60 (1st March) and resistance at 132.78.
  • Gilts are similarly contained and slightly closer to the unchanged mark than EGB peers, perhaps given the relative underperformance seen in Gilts during the second half of last week; currently holds around 98.30.

Commodities

  • A firm session for the crude complex following constructive Chinese activity data coupled with a weekend of geopolitical headlines, including Ukraine ramping up its targeting of Russian oil facilities; Brent currently holds just above USD 86.00/bbl.
  • Subdued trade for precious metals with the market on standby ahead of this week's major risk events; XAU trades within a tight range (2,146.15-2,157.60/oz).
  • Base metals are mostly subdued despite the constructive Chinese activity data overnight but following the notable run higher in prices last week.
  • Ukraine’s SBU security service attacked three Rosneft oil refineries in Russia’s Samara region with drones. It was separately reported that a fire broke out at the Slavyansk refinery in the Krasnodar region following a drone attack, while the Syzran oil refinery reportedly experienced a fire which was put out.
  • BHP said 30% of Australian nickel mines have shut and 30% more are under pressure on low prices, according to Reuters.
  • China's NDRC maintained retail gasoline and diesel prices as of March 19th.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israeli official says they will offer in Qatar a truce for 6 weeks in exchange for the release of 40 detainees, according to Reuters; the official estimated that negotiations could take at least two weeks
  • Israeli PM Netanyahu said US Senate Majority Leader Schumer’s speech commenting on Israeli elections was inappropriate and they will continue military pressure on Hamas. Netanyahu said Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas battalions goes hand in hand with enabling civilians to leave Rafah.
  • Israel’s Mossad chief Barnea was expected to resume Gaza ceasefire talks with Qatar’s PM and Egyptian officials on Sunday with the meeting a direct response to the latest proposal from Hamas and talks will focus on the remaining gaps between Israel and Hamas, according to a source briefed on the talks cited by Reuters.
  • Israel is to send a delegation to Qatar for talks on achieving a hostage deal after Israeli security cabinet approval, according to Kann correspondent Amichai Stein.
  • Egyptian President El-Sisi said Egypt and EU leaders agreed on rejecting any Israeli military operation in Rafah, while EU’s von der Leyen said it is critical to achieve an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza rapidly now and that Gaza is facing famine which they cannot accept. German Chancellor Scholz said they cannot stand by and watch Palestinians starve, while he added that lasting security for Israel lies in a solution with Palestinians, meaning a two-state solution.
  • A Syrian soldier was injured in an Israeli strike on the southern region, according to Syrian state TV.
  • Iran and the US held secret talks on proxy attacks and a ceasefire, according to the New York Times.
  • UKMTO noted an incident off Yemen’s Aden where an explosion was reported near the Master of Merchant vessel although there was no damage to the vessel and the crew were reported safe.
  • US offical says Houthis are unable to continue escalation, US can always escalate against the Houthis

OTHER

  • Russian President Putin won 88% of the votes in the Russian election where the opposition was banned, according to FT. Russian President Putin said Russia should be stronger and more effective and his win will allow Russia to consolidate society and shows how Russia was right to choose its current path.
  • Russian President Putin commented on the French proposal for a ceasefire during the Olympics in which he stated that they are ready for talks and will proceed from Russia's interests on the front line, while he added they will think about with whom they can talk with about peace in Ukraine and he doesn't rule out setting up a 'sanitary zone' in Ukraine-controlled territories amid Ukraine attacks.
  • White House commented the Russian election was not free nor fair given how Putin has imprisoned opponents and prevented others from running against him, while Ukrainian President Zelensky said there is no legitimacy in Russian imitation of elections and that Putin seeks to rule forever, according to Reuters.
  • Russian air defence systems downed 35 Ukraine-launched drones over eight regions, while Russia launched 14 drones against Ukraine’s Odesa which damaged agricultural enterprises and infrastructure.
  • Russia’s Foreign Ministry accused Ukraine of stepping up ‘terrorist activities’ during the Russian election to attract more aid and weapons from the West, while Russia said Ukraine dropped a shell from a drone on a polling station in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman commented on French President Macron’s idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine during the Olympics and proposed for him to stop weapons supplies to Ukraine, according to TASS.
  • Head of parliament in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia said a possible inclusion into Russia is being discussed with Moscow, according to RIA.
  • SpaceX is building hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with the US National Reconnaissance Office, according to Reuters sources.
  • North Korea fired projectiles believed to be ballistic missiles which landed shortly after their firing outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. In relevant news, - North Korea’s leader Kim oversaw warfare drills and urged realistic preparation for combat, according to KCNA.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken told South Korean President Yoon that the two countries are to consult to upgrade extended deterrence and work together on the North Korean threat, according to Yonhap.
  • Japanese PM Kishida said North Korea's missile launch threatens not only the peace and stability of the region but also of the international community and Japan strongly condemns North Korea’s actions. Kishida stated that Japan lodged a stern protest against North Korea and will further advance close trilateral cooperation with the US and South Korea.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: March New York Fed Services Business, prior -7.3
  • 10:00: March NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 48, prior 48

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This could be a landmark week in markets as the last global holdout on negative rates looks set to be removed as the BoJ likely hikes rates from -0.1% tomorrow. That could slightly overshadow the FOMC that concludes on Wednesday that will have its own signalling intrigue given recent strong inflation. We also have the RBA meeting tomorrow (DB preview here) and the SNB and BoE (DB preview here) meetings on Thursday to close out a big week for global central bankers with many EM countries also deciding on policy. We’ll preview the main meetings in more depth below but outside of this we have the global flash PMIs on Thursday as well as inflation reports in Japan (Thursday) and the UK (Wednesday). US housing data also permeates through the week as you'll see in the full global day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual.

Let’s go into detail now, starting with the BoJ tomorrow. We’ve had negative base rates now for 8 years which if I have my history correct is the longest run ever seen for any country in the history of mankind. In fact I doubt pre-historic man was as generous as to charge negative interest rates on lending money prior to this! It also might be one of the longest global runs without any interest rate hikes given the 17 year run that could end tomorrow. So a landmark event.

Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting here and e xpects the central bank to revise its policy and abandon both NIRP and the multi-tiered current account structure and set rates on all excess reserves at 0.1%. He also sees both the yield curve control (YCC) and the inflation-overshooting commitment ending, replaced by a benchmark for the pace of the bank’s JGB purchasing activity. Our house view forecast of 50bps of hikes through 2025 is more hawkish than the market but risks are still tilted to the upside. On Friday, the Japan Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) announced the first tally of the results of this year's shunto spring wage negotiation. The wage increase rate, including the seniority-based wage hike, is 5.28%, which was significantly higher than expected. This year will probably see the highest wage settlements since 1991 which given Japan’s recent history is an incredible turnaround. This wage data news has firmed up expectations for tomorrow. See our economists’ piece on it here.

With regards to the FOMC which concludes on Wednesday, our economists (see their preview here) expect only minor revisions to the meeting statement that saw an overhaul last meeting. With regards to the SEP, the growth and unemployment forecasts are unlikely to change but the 2024 inflation forecasts potentially could. DB expect the Fed to revise up their 2024 core PCE inflation forecast by a tenth to 2.5%, although they see meaningful risks that it gets revised up even higher to 2.6%. In our economists' view, a 2.5% core PCE reading would allow just enough wiggle room to keep the 2024 fed funds rate at 4.6% (75bps of cuts). However, if core PCE inflation were revised up to 2.6%, it would likely entail the Fed moving their base case back to 50bps of cuts, as this would essentially reflect the same forecasts as the September 2023 SEP.

Beyond 2024, DB expect officials to build in less policy easing due to a higher r-star. If two of the eight officials currently at 2.5% move up by 25bps, then the long-run median forecast would edge up to 2.6%. This could be justified by a one-tenth upgrade to the long-run growth forecast. After all this information is released the presser from Powell will of course be heavily scrutinised, especially on how Powell sees recent inflation data. Powell should also provide an update on discussions around QT but it is unlikely they are ready yet to release updated guidance.

One additional global highlight this week might be a big fall in UK inflation on Wednesday with our economists' preview here suggesting that headline CPI will slow to 3.4% (vs 4% in January) and core to 4.5% (5.1%). Elsewhere there is plenty of ECB speaker appearances including President Lagarde on Wednesday. They are all highlighted in the day-by-day guide at the end.

Asian equity markets are climbing this morning with the Nikkei (+2.13%) rising sharply ahead of what could be the first baby step towards normalising policy tomorrow. Elsewhere, the CSI (+0.51%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.49%) are also moving higher after data showed that the world’s second biggest economy kicked off the year on a stronger note (more below). Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.60%) is also up while the Hang Seng is struggling to gain traction this morning. S&P 500 (+0.26%) and Nasdaq (+0.45%) futures are higher. US Treasury yields are fairly stable. .

Coming back to China, industrial production grew +7.0% in the first two months of 2024, well above Bloomberg’s forecast of +5.2% with businesses continuing to engage in strong capital spending as fixed asset investment grew +4.2% in the two-month period, more than the +3.2% expected. Meanwhile, retail sales advanced +5.5% YTD y/y, v/s +5.2% expected, indicating that the Chinese economy is performing better than expected helped by extra demand during the Lunar New Year period.

Elsewhere, in one of the more predictable electoral events of 2024, Vladimir Putin secured another term as Russia’s president. Peter Sidorov has published a short reaction on the result and on things to watch in its aftermath, here.

Recapping last week now, concerns about stubborn inflation proved to be at the forefront of investors’ minds. The main drivers of these renewed inflation worries were the stronger than expected US CPI and PPI reports, which showed that both consumer and producer prices were rising faster than expected. And markets found little relief in Friday’s data, with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index falling to 76.5 in March (vs 77.1 expected), while the 5-10yr inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.9% as expected. Adding to the inflation fears, oil prices surged last week. Brent crude rose +3.97% (-0.09% on Friday) to $85.34/bbl, its highest weekly close since late October, and WTI crude jumped +3.88% ( -0.27% on Friday) to $81.04/bbl.

Off the back of this, markets revisited their expected timing of Fed cuts. For example, futures are now pricing only a 61% chance that the Fed will cut by June. At the start of March, markets had seen a 96% chance of a cut by June. The number of cuts expected by the December meeting were dialled back by -23.1bps last week (and -4.8bps on Friday), with just 72bps of cuts priced in for the year, the lowest this has been in four months.

The prospect of fewer rate cuts led to a strong upward move in global yields. US 2yr Treasury yields surged +25.3bps last week (and +3.4bps on Friday). Longer dated Treasuries also jumped. For example, 10yr yields rose +23.1bps to 4.31% (+1.6bps on Friday), bringing them back to their February levels. European fixed income was far from immune to these moves, as 10yr bunds gained +17.5bps (and +1.6bps on Friday). Increasing expectations that the BoJ was looking to cut at this week’s meeting also added to this upward pressure on global yields, with 10yr Japanese bond yields up +5.1bps (and +0.9bps on Friday).

The equity reaction was not as negative but they also struggled after last week’s hot inflation prints, as well as with the softer US retail data. The S&P 500 was down -0.13% last week, and fell -0.65% on Friday against a risk-off backdrop. The small cap Russell 2000 struggled the most, down -2.08% over the week, despite a +0.40% rise on Friday. Technology also underperformed on the week, as the NASDAQ fell -0.70% (and -0.96% on Friday). The Magnificent 7 were down -1.04% on Friday (-0.30% on the week), though Nvidia (+0.35% on the week) managed to narrowly secure 10 weeks of consecutive gains. Equity markets were more optimistic in Europe, with the STOXX 600 up +0.31% (-0.32% on Friday). The German DAX and French CAC outperformed, up +0.69% and +1.70% on the week, respectively.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/18/2024 - 08:18
À partir d’avant-hierZero Hedge

RFK Jr To Name Sergey Brin's Ex-Wife As Running Mate: Report

RFK Jr To Name Sergey Brin's Ex-Wife As Running Mate: Report

After previously thinking NY Jets quarterback Aaron Rogers might be the right person to be a heartbeat away from the presidency, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr is now planning to select 38-year-old Nicole Shanahan, the wealthy ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, as his running mate. This according to a Saturday Mediaite report that cited "a source close to the campaign."

Shanahan is a Bay Area lawyer and tech entrepreneur who's been a Democratic Party benefactor and donated to Biden's 2020 campaign. In a February Times profile, she described herself as a "progressive through and through." Aside from opening her wallet, she has no political profile whatsoever, seemingly not even having spoken out or written about issues of the day.  

Nicole Shanahan and her then-husband Sergey Brin (Ian Tuttle/Getty via Vanity Fair)

Last week, the New York Times reported that, in addition to the NFL's Rogers, Kennedy was considering former Minnesota Gov and Predator co-star Jesse Ventura, among others. Mediaite's source said RFK Jr and Shanahan "align on numerous issues," including wariness about vaccines.

The source also candidly spotlighted what is likely the principal attraction: "The campaign is also looking for a candidate who can help finance the ballot access initiative.” The campaign says that effort comes with a $15 million price tag. With under eight months to the election, he's only on four ballots: Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire and Utah. Multiple states require the naming of a running mate before giving approval, which is why his decision is coming soon. 

This leak doesn't exactly sound like a coordinated trial balloon, as a source close to the campaign proceeded to throw Shanahan under the bus: 

“She might be infusing millions of dollars into the campaign to help fund the ballot initiative, which makes her attractive financially; however, she lacks the qualifications to actually do the job."

Shanahan helped bankroll Kennedy's Super Bowl ad, giving $4 million to the American Values 2024 PAC that's supporting him. That represented a major change of heart: When Kennedy announced last fall that he was bailing on the rigged Democratic nomination process, Shanahan was "incredibly disappointed" and, at the time, decided not to back him, despite having given him a $6,000 maximum contribution in May, while he was trying to dislodge Biden.  

RFK Jr. says he has an “extraordinary” VP pick, “but it’s not any of the people they’ve been talking about.”

“It’s somebody that is going to surprise people and I think the country is really gonna fall in love with.” @RobertKennedyJr pic.twitter.com/jhZaoCLvNb

— Holden Culotta (@Holden_Culotta) March 16, 2024

Mediaite was also first to report Kennedy's decision to go independent. On Wednesday, the outlet found that Kennedy advisor Link Lipsitz registered the kennedyshanahan.com web domain, and observed that the page was ready to facilitate donations. When ZeroHedge tried accessing it, however, we received a "connection not private" warning for the site.

A Kennedy campaign spokesperson declined to confirm the report, merely telling the New York Post, "There has been a lot of speculation in the media about Mr. Kennedy’s pick of vice presidential running mate. The official announcement will be on March 26 in Oakland."

Last summer, the Wall Street Journal reported that Shanahan's 2023 divorce from Brin was sparked by a brief affair she had with Elon Musk. In addition to ending the five-year marriage, the Journal said the episode also terminated a long friendship between Musk and Brin. Musk called the report "total bs": 

This is total bs. Sergey and I are friends and were at a party together last night!

I’ve only seen Nicole twice in three years, both times with many other people around. Nothing romantic.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 25, 2022
Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 15:45

Gold Star Dad Who Interrupted State Of The Union Explains Why He Did It

Gold Star Dad Who Interrupted State Of The Union Explains Why He Did It

Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Joe Biden had been talking for about an hour when Steven Nikoui began feeling like he was sitting in the Colosseum in the movie “Gladiator” rather than at a State of the Union address.

“They’re all sitting in the stands and they’re looking at the beast down there and they’re getting amused. And I felt that. I rationalized it like that and I was a little sickened,” Mr. Nikoui said.

“These people … they wouldn’t even have any of this if it wasn’t for someone like my kid or … any of the others.”

Steven Nikoui shouts as President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol on March 7, 2024. (Shawn Thew/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

He had hoped this would be the day that President Biden would say his son’s name, Kareem.

But when the president said “America is safer today than when I took office,” the Gold Star father reached a breaking point.

Mr. Nikoui likens the moment as “having an out of the body experience.”

The anger and grief that had been stewing inside him for three years let loose.

Remember Abbey Gate! United States Marines! Kareem Mae'Lee Nikoui!

He shouted his son’s name, U.S. Marine Lance Corporal Kareem Nikoui, and the name of the airport gate in Kabul where a suicide bomber killed his son and 12 other U.S. Marines on Aug 26, 2021, during the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Then, he was arrested.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers the annual State of the Union address before a joint session of Congress in Washington on March 7, 2024. (Right) Steven Nikoui holds a photo of his son, fallen U.S. Marine Kareem Nikoui, in Norco, Calif., on March 14, 2024. (Shawn Thew-Pool/Getty Images, John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

Mr. Nikoui, who had been invited to the State of the Union by Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.), a veteran, was escorted out of the House Gallery.

I did have remorse,” he told The Epoch Times. “I felt ashamed.”

Mr. Nikoui said he was placed in handcuffs and escorted to a police substation at the Capitol. There, his mugshot was taken and he was fingerprinted. He said he waived his Miranda Rights.

The officers who arrested him “were pretty good,” he said, but they gave him an ultimatum: “If you talk to us, you‘ll be out in an hour. If you don’t talk to us, you’ll go to the DC jail and see the judge in the morning.”

He said he was scared to go to jail. He'd never been arrested before.

‘He Would Have Been Proud’

Mr. Nikoui said Kareem, meaning “generous and honorable” in Arabic, is a fitting name for his son.

It’s exactly how his son, a proud American patriot, lived and died, he said. Something, he added, that President Biden has never once acknowledged.

He said Kareem made the ultimate sacrifice for the country he had longed to serve since he was four years old.

As a little boy, Kareem had a collection of “little army guys” he constantly played with, Mr. Nikoui recalled. His son joined Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps as soon as he was old enough and he loved military movies. His favorite was “Band of Brothers,” a TV mini series.

Kareem’s commitment to serve was not a rite of passage as it so often is between father and son, Mr Nikoui said.

“I was against it,” he said. “I knew this would happen. I buried my head in the sand. I didn’t know anything about the military. I told him I don’t want to know anything about this. Just get out. But he didn’t want to get out. He said ‘I’m going all the way.’”

People attend the funeral of U.S. Marine Lance Corporal Kareem Nikoui at the Harvest Christian Fellowship in Riverside, Calif., on Sept. 18, 2021.

Mr. Nikoui, a born-again Christian, talked to The Epoch Times about his son and his March 7 arrest at the State of the Union.

He also reflected on his relentless blame on President Biden for not following the Doha Agreement established under the Trump Administration. And his ardent belief that his son, who was only 20 when he was killed, would still be alive if former President Donald Trump had been commander-in-chief when his son was deployed in Afghanistan.

“The only reason why I was even all right with my kid joining the military—because, like I told you I was against it—was because Donald Trump was the president,” he said.

The memories flooded back as President Biden touted his tenure.

From the Democrats dressed all in white to signify pro-abortion, to President Biden mispronouncing Laken Riley’s name in response to Rep. Marjorie Greene’s (R-Ga.) demand he say the name of the Georgia student brutally slain by an illegal immigrant, Mr. Nikoui described the many reasons that made him think “harder than ever” about the sacrifice of his son and the other fallen soldiers.

He thought back to the horrifying videos Kareem had sent him during his deployment—of young Afghani children begging the soldiers to take them to America.

“I saw this little girl just screaming, pushing herself up against the fence—screaming, ’they'll kill me, take me with you, the bad guys are coming,” he recalled. And mothers, “throwing their babies at razor wire. And women running into the razor wire because they don’t want to be raped and killed by the Taliban.”

Members of the Taliban gather outside the airport in Kabul after the U.S. withdrawal in Afghanistan, on Aug. 31, 2021. (Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images)

He said Kareem, also a Christian, often spoke emotionally of how deeply pained he was by what he witnessed.

Mr. Nikoui believes President Biden and his followers lack any understanding of that kind of pain. He said he finds it appalling that anytime someone dies or loses a loved one, the president interminably turns it into his own grief about the loss of his son Beau to cancer.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 15:10

Putin Wins Fifth Term As Russian President With 87% Of The Vote

Putin Wins Fifth Term As Russian President With 87% Of The Vote

Update: It will surprise no one that Vladimir Putin secured another six years as Russia’s president - effectively ensuring that he will surpass Joseph Stalin as Russia's longest-serving ruler should he successfully complete his latest term when he will be 77-year-old - in a bid to step up his war in Ukraine and challenge the West, with the Kremlin claiming record public support for him in a vote whose outcome was largely pre-determined even without mystery sacks of mail-in ballots arriving at 3am.

Congratulstions to all Russia's enemies on Vladimir Putin's brilliant victory in the election of the President of the Russian Federation! And a thank you to friends for the support

— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) March 17, 2024

Putin won 87%, according to an exit poll broadcast on state television late Sunday, shortly after the end of three days of voting. That exceeded the previous high of 77% support that the incumbent president received in 2018 elections, according to Bloomberg.

Russian State Media is showing Exit Polls from the ongoing Presidential Election, with current President Vladimir Putin receiving upwards of 87% of the Vote likely Securing his Presidency until at least 2030. pic.twitter.com/IrVSwj8HqO

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 17, 2024

Three other candidates, all from parties loyal to the Kremlin, received no more than 5% support. Nearly 4.5 million people voted online in a system used in 29 of Russia’s regions for the first time in a presidential election, the Interfax news service reported, citing government data.

Preliminary turnout was 74.22% - the largest in over 3 decades - according to Central Election Commission data shown on state TV. That turnout was the highest since Boris Yeltsin became president in 1991 after the Soviet Union’s collapse, and well above the 67.5% turnout recorded in 2018. At least six Russian regions claimed turnout was above 90%.

Of note, according to the CEC, Putin received 94.12% of the votes after processing 100% of the protocols in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation in the Lugansk People's Republic, which is located in the contest Donetsk region.

Putin is extending his nearly quarter-century rule into a fifth term at a time when his troops are on the offensive in Ukraine. Russia’s pressing its advantage in the third year of the invasion that’s become Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II, as Ukraine struggles to supply its forces with munitions amid delays in military aid from its US and European allies.

The election outcome “gives Putin every chance to implement any, even the toughest, scenarios in Ukraine,” said Pavel Danilin, head of the Moscow-based Center for Political Analysis, which advises the Kremlin. The “historically high result is a guarantee that the majority of the population supports Putin,” he said.

Putin's victory comes as Russia’s economy has fully weathered the shock of international sanctions since it began the February 2022 invasion, thanks to a continuing flow of energy revenue - which the west has been terrified to halt as it would mean a surge in global energy prices and a rout for Biden in the November 2024 elections - and a massive injection of government spending to support the defense industry and shield domestic businesses. Meanwhile, trade with China is booming as Russia reorients its economy away from markets in Europe.

As noted above, Russia organized voting in occupied areas of Ukraine and that claimed turnout far exceeded 80%, even as millions of people have fled the regions since the invasion. The foreign ministry in Kyiv said the “pseudo-elections” were illegal, by which they probably mean they were not predetermined by neocon demi-god Victoria Nuland, or whoever it is that will replace her in the Deep State.

 

* * *

Earlier:

The first round of the presidential election in Russia is taking place from Friday to Sunday this weekend.

It will be the country's eighth presidential election and more than 112 million voters will be called to the polls.

While four candidates are in the running, Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports that there is almost no doubt among observers that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected for a fifth term in the first round.

The only real unknown is the share of votes he will receive.

During the last presidential election in 2018, this number stood at around 77 percent.

Infographic: Putin Forever? | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

In power for around a quarter of a century - spanning four presidential terms and two terms as prime minister between 1999 and 2000 and between 2008 and 2012 - Putin has spent a total of almost 9,000 days at the helm of the country. If he is re-elected this weekend, the ensuing six-year term of approximately 2,190 days will likely make him Russia's longest serving leader since the start of the twentieth century. This record is currently held by Joseph Stalin, who led the country between 1924 and 1953 for a total of 10,636 days. Putin became Russia's second longest-serving leader overtaking Brezhnev in 2017 late into his third term as president.

During Dmitry Medvedev's presidency from 2008 to 2012, Russian law was amended to extend presidential terms from two terms of four years to two terms of six years.

This change was also designed to reset terms served and therefore enabled Putin to win another two terms.

A decade later, in 2021, Putin signed another law setting the limit at two presidential mandates per person in a lifetime, again paradoxically resetting terms already served and thereby exempting him for a second time.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 15:05

Molotov Cocktail Attack On Russian Embassy In Moldova On Last Day Of Election

Molotov Cocktail Attack On Russian Embassy In Moldova On Last Day Of Election

Sunday is the final day of three days of presidential elections in Russia. Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of deceased opposition activist Alexei Navalny, is urging mass protests against President Putin as he stands of the verge of winning another six year term as president, an outcome quite obvious to all observers. She's calling on Russians to disrupt the final day of voting in what's been dubbed "noon against Putin". 

While some sporadic minor incidents at polling stations have been reported, there has been a major incident in the small country of Moldova which borders Ukraine. Moldovan police have detained a man who attacked the Russian embassy with two Molotov cocktails as voting was underway there.

Illustrative file image, via the Atlantic Council

"A man threw two containers of flammable substances over the fence of the Russian Embassy in Chisinau," police said in a statement. A 54-year-old Moldovan who described himself as also having Russian citizenship was immediately detained after after hurling the Molotov cocktails.

There were no reports of injuries or damage to the embassy, and police said an investigation is ongoing. "He justified his action by some dissatisfaction he has with the actions of the Russian authorities," authorities said.

Moldova has been scene of controversy and friction especially after Russia allowed the opening of several polling stations in breakaway Transnistria, which the Moldovan government has fiercely protested.

Reuters noted days ago that "A senior official in ex-Soviet Moldova said on Wednesday Moscow was breaking laws by printing ballot papers in the separatist region of Transnistria ahead of this week's Russian presidential election."

"Moldova's pro-European authorities have already summoned the Russian ambassador to complain about a decision to open six polling stations in the pro-Russian enclave," the report continued. "The central government said the move broke an agreement to allow voting only at a single polling station at the Russian embassy in Chisinau."

Russian embassy in Moldova, via TASS

The United States recently become more vocal in defending Moldova's territorial integrity, and has condemned what the Biden administration has called Moscow's 'interference' in the Eastern European nation's sovereignty.

Last summer, Moldova expelled 45 Russian diplomats and embassy staff members from the country "over numerous unfriendly actions" as tensions reached near breaking point over the war in neighboring Ukraine and the Transnistria issue. As for Russia's election, Kremlin authorities have said Ukraine is engaged in cross-border attacks on polling stations and in annexed regions of Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 14:35

The Stain Of Fani: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Signs Law To Discipline 'Rogue' Prosecutors Amid DA Willis Controversy

The Stain Of Fani: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp Signs Law To Discipline 'Rogue' Prosecutors Amid DA Willis Controversy

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has signed a bill into law that revives an oversight panel with powers to discipline and remove wayward county prosecutors, and which could potentially target alleged misconduct by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis in her case against former President Donald Trump.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis speaks during a news conference at the Fulton County Government building in Atlanta on Aug. 14, 2023. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Mr. Kemp signed SB 332 into law on March 13, saying at a signing ceremony that the community suffers and property is put at risk when “out-of-touch” public prosecutors put politics ahead of public safety.

This legislation will help us ensure rogue or incompetent prosecutors are held accountable if they refuse to uphold the law,” Mr. Kemp said.

“As we know all too well, crime has been on the rise across the country, and is especially prevalent in cities where prosecutors are giving criminals a free pass or failing to put them behind bars due to lack of professional conduct,” he added.

Mr. Kemp initially signed related legislation in May 2023, which established the Prosecuting Attorneys Qualifications Commission (PACQ), with the governor saying at the time that the panel would discipline “far-left” prosecutors who make communities less safe by being soft on crime.

However, the panel was unable to start operating after the state Supreme Court in November 2023 declined to approve rules for its governance, with justices saying in their ruling that they had “grave doubts” whether adopting the standards and rules was within their constitutional powers.

So the Georgia General Assembly passed HB 881 in January 2024, which revived the oversight panel while removing the requirement for Supreme Court approval. The bill then was referred to the state Senate, where it became SB 332.

Focus on Willis

While the bill mirrored efforts in other states to hold “rogue” prosecutors accountable for refusing to prosecute certain crimes, Democrats opposed to its passage said it could be used to target prosecutors involved in the case against President Trump, including Ms. Willis.

The commission will be able to unilaterally proceed and have the ability to interfere and undermine an ongoing investigation against Donald J. Trump,” state House Minority Whip Sam Park, a Democrat, told The Associated Press when the House version of the measure passed.

“You are taking action to protect former President Trump from an ongoing criminal prosecution,” he alleged.

Ms. Willis has been accused of an “improper” relationship with Nathan Wade, a special prosecutor in the election interference case against the former president and over a dozen co-defendants. She also faced conflict-of-interest allegations that she benefited from the relationship financially.

While defendants in the case moved to have both prosecutors disqualified, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee ruled on Friday that either Mr. Wade or Ms. Willis must remove themselves from the case.

Mr. Wade said Friday that he would resign, leaving Ms. Willis—who faces a separate campaign finance ethics probe and possible contempt of Congress proceedings—at the helm of the case, which President Trump has denounced as a politically-driven “witch hunt.”

The prosecutor oversight panel that Mr. Kemp’s signature has established provides an additional tool that could target Ms. Willis as she faces continued scrutiny.

Ms. Willis’ office did not respond to a request for comment on the bill.

Georgia House Speaker Jon Burns, a Republican, told The Associated Press that the measure isn’t directly focused on Ms. Willis or any one individual.

“For us in the House our focus is not on any one person, not on any one situation,” Mr. Burns told reporters after Mr. Kemp signed the bill into law. “It’s about asking the folks that are elected, just like me, to do their jobs and protect the citizens of this state.”

Fight Against ‘Rogue’ Prosecutors

Georgia law mandates that a prosecutor must consider every case for which probable cause exists and can’t exclude categories of cases—such as marijuana possession or abortion-related offenses—from prosecution.

HB 881 and its Senate version SB 332 lay out grounds for discipline, removal, or “involuntary retirement” of wayward prosecutors, including for engaging in “willful misconduct” or for being convicted of a “crime involving moral turpitude” or persistently failing to carry out their duties.

Besides removing the need for Supreme Court oversight, the law adjusts the standard for mental or physical incapacity, allows appeals to a local superior court judge, and permits appeals to any county where the prosecutor has worked.

The establishment of the new commission comes as Republicans fight against what they describe as leftist “rogue” district attorneys who refuse to prosecute certain crimes.

The inability to ensure public safety and protect communities is occurring at every level of state government,” U.S. Reps. Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.) wrote in an op-ed in 2022.

“By cracking down on rogue prosecutors who favor criminals over victims, we can ensure that no one else is put in harm’s way as a result of Democrats’ negligence,” they wrote. 

In much the same vein, President Trump has vowed to target prosecutors who are lax on crime if he wins the 2024 presidential race.

Soros prosecutors appear to be engaging in selective enforcement based on illegal racial discrimination” in places such as Chicago, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, President Trump said in a video posted to his YouTube channel in April 2023.

He was referring to left-wing billionaire financier George Soros, who has provided millions of dollars in campaign contributions to progressives Democrat district attorneys.

“They are Marxist in many cases,” President Trump said, while pledging to appoint about 100 U.S. attorneys who are the “polar opposite” of the “Soros district attorneys and others being appointed around the United States.”

President Trump said that those officials will be the “most ferocious legal warriors” who will target the worst “communist corruption” the country has ever seen.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 14:00

Rare Drone Attack On Military Base In Breakaway Pro-Russian Republic Of Transnistria

Rare Drone Attack On Military Base In Breakaway Pro-Russian Republic Of Transnistria

An unprecedented or at least extremely rare attack has just targeted a military base in the pro-Russian breakaway Moldovan republic of Transnistria on Sunday.

A kamikaze drone hit a military base in Tiraspol, the capital of unrecognized Transnistria, local officials have told RIA Novosti. The attack reportedly resulted in fire and damage to military assets at the airfield, but there were no casualties.

Russian state media said a helicopter stationed at the airfield was destroyed in the UAV attack. Presumably the helicopter belonged to either Transnistria separatists or to the Russian military.

"Today a fire occurred on the territory of a military base in Tiraspol as a result of an explosion," local authorities were cited in AFP as saying.

"It was preliminarily established that the explosion was caused by a kamikaze drone attack," they added, and alleged the drone launched from the Odesa region. They are blaming Ukraine forces for the rare cross-border attack.

The incident was not immediately confirmed either by the Russian or Ukraine governments. "Grainy footage distributed by separatist authorities showed a projectile slamming into a military helicopter standing at an airbase surrounded by fields," AFP noted.

Close-up footage of the Mi-8 helicopter in Transnistria being attacked by a drone pic.twitter.com/QMekkx47jO

— Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) March 17, 2024

Regardless of the AFP headline which says Breakaway Moldova Region Blames Military Site Blast On Drone From Ukraine... there remain conflicting reports on the origin point of the drone launch.

Russia's RT writes, "Transnistria’s state security ministry alleged that the drone arrived from the so-called “Clover Bridge” area – a major multi-level highway junction located north of the city of Tiraspol and close to the Ukrainian border." Further the report notes that "The unrecognized republic’s authorities have not named any suspects behind the incident so far."

As we previously wrote in a backgrounder here, in 2006, a Transnistrian double referendum was held gauging popular support for the separatist state's appetite to either renounce its independence and join the Republic Of Moldova or to maintain it and seek to join the Russian Federation. The referendum to become part of Moldova was rejected by 96% of voters while 98% approved of becoming part of Russia.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 13:25

This Week Seemed Like A Crazy Market, On Steroids

This Week Seemed Like A Crazy Market, On Steroids

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

What’s the Record for Shortest Time from All-Time Highs to Bear Market?

That seems like such a strange question. If all you did was read the headlines, you would think that things were great (if not spectacular) in markets. If you say you are bearish, people will look at you with sympathy, wondering if you are going to be able to feed your family with such a disastrous call.

Yet, the reality of the situation is quite different from what the headlines seem to be trying to spoon feed us on a daily basis.

The Nasdaq 100, which was down on the week, is down 1% since February 9th. Yes, it had its closing high on March 1st, and its intraday high of 18,417 on March 8th. But 5 weeks, with a lot of hype and cheerleading, has amounted to a loss of 1%. Since the highs, we are down 3%, which is one of many things that have me wondering how quickly we’ve fallen from “all-time highs” to bear market? While 20% is a tad more bearish than I am, it sounded better than using a “correction” of 10% in the title.

The S&P 500 has performed more steadily than the Nasdaq 100, but at the other end of the spectrum, despite begging people to Stop Using the Magnificent 7 Moniker, we still hear that term quite frequently. Yes, some people have started talking about the Fab 4 or some other catchy phrase, but that makes sense when at least a couple of the so-called Mag 7 are back to levels from October, before the big bull market started (a time when we were quite bullish, possibly fighting consensus back then too).

Where We’ve Been Recently

We’ve been bearish, but with an emphasis that we felt the risk of a 5% to 10% rapid move to the downside was far more likely than a sharp rally. We’ve discussed aspects of this in:

  • Trillion Dollar Mistakes. Highlighting some big mistakes made in the overall market, while questioning if Wall Street, for all its foibles, was really likely to have been that wrong?

  • The Time to Retire report, referenced earlier, highlighted a series of market behaviors and charts that were making us increasingly nervous about the risk/reward of the market and forcing us to lean to the “cautious and need to hedge” side of things.

  • It’s Friday, I’m in Love examined the week ending March 1st, highlighting some of the things that helped propel stocks higher that Friday. As I re-read that, many of the positives have dissipated, been priced in, or in the case of AI “deputization,” are starting to be questioned. If it hadn’t been for the SOX Index (semiconductors) we wouldn’t have achieved these all-time highs, and that index has started to roll over. In a market with limited leadership, that could be problematic.

  • While more of a “longer-term” trade, everything about Made By China is likely to be negative for our markets and economy.

While those have helped articulate and explain our bearish view, they are all relatively recent (the oldest was published on February 27th). We should go back to one more article to express why the view has changed from a DEFCON 3 or 4 sort of bearishness, to a more dangerous and urgent DEFCON 2 level of bearishness.

Back on February 9th we published A Market Only a Mother or AI Could Love. That chart showed the “crazy” trading pattern of the week. So many wild swings. Gyrations, some of which could be attributed to news, but some of which seemed inexplicable.

This week seemed like that, on steroids! I think I actually physically poked my screen once to make sure it was working. I swear, the market was up almost 1%, I glanced away, it was down 1%, and then a few minutes later it was back to flat. I’m not sure what tapping my screen would do, but I could remember doing that when a thermometer didn’t seem to be working, so it seemed appropriate.

But no, my screen was working just fine – it was the markets that weren’t functioning “normally” in my opinion.

It seemed that every “big” order just caused the market to gap higher or lower while the order was being filled. It did work in both directions, but I’m increasingly convinced the risk is that the market will need to find some serious bidside liquidity, when it may be non-existent.

Where We’ve Been In the Past

All of this is forcing me to think about some things we’ve discussed in the past, which are rapidly rising to the forefront of my thoughts again.

While aging myself, yet again, I cannot help but think about the Tacoma Narrows Bridge. A fun “movie” many of us got to watch in school. This was back when someone had to bring in a projector and seeing a video in class was a “cool” thing (though not as cool as getting the whole school to watch the Canada Cup in the gym). But anyways, that video shows a bridge oscillating. That oscillation increases until, ultimately, it collapses! The movie was all about resonance frequency, but all I remember is seeing a structure, so seemingly sturdy, start to bend and twist before collapsing. The first time that hit me was back in 2007 and it is the main image I have in my mind right now.

It also made me think about pendulums. In Dredging Up Pendulums, we focused primarily on the complexity of a simple pendulum versus a double pendulum, and how important even tiny changes in starting conditions could be.

We also discussed Machine Learning Triple Pendulums. This YouTube video shows how a computer is able to manipulate a “cart” to get a triple pendulum to stand upright for a period of time. For about a decade, I’ve been using that when discussing market mechanics. It is difficult to tell what exactly happens day by day, or even minute by minute, when so much of the trading is driven by algorithms. The algorithms link not just “vehicles” (like stocks, ETFs, and futures), but also asset classes as correlations are traded rapidly. The reason thinking about market structure in terms of a machine learning triple pendulum cart is so important (if it is a correct interpretation) is that “functioning” or holding it upright is very unstable and takes more computing power and skill than a human possesses. Yet, it can be accomplished. The problem is that when it fails, it tends to result in an “epic” failure where the “natural” position of the pendulums (all pulled by gravity) is to be facing down rather than standing upright. Sure, maybe a bit alarmist, but we’ve seen it in the past. A VIX related ETF Went Poof.

What Changed This Week

One thing that changed is the “randomness” of trading seemed to accelerate, forcing me to think about bridges and pendulums. I also cannot stop thinking about some of the charts we included in A Retrospective of All-Time Highs. While many of the bears (and doomers) want to talk about “tech bubbles,” I’m more fixated on 2007. To me, the 2007 “all-time high” was one of the strangest ones.

All the problems were known. None had been fixed, but we hit an all-time high, based largely on the Fed. We bounced hard again after JPM bought Bear, only to sink to new lows a week or so after Lehman. Those “lows” seemed tame compared to where the market finally bottomed in 2009, but it was the almost “hubris” of all-time highs in the autumn of 2007 that I think about more than the tech bubble, as I don’t think that is the right metric. Though as a bear, who is increasingly worried about a 10% pullback, I shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

But here are things that have made me increasingly nervous:

  • Bond yields.

    • I’ll start with longer dated bond yields as they are more fun. The 10-year Treasury yield got back to 4.31% on Friday. Treasuries rallied, much to my chagrin, last time we got here, but they seem susceptible to moving higher again. China will NOT be buying Treasuries as they are raising their own debt to figure out how to spend their way out of their economic problems. FXI, a China ETF, did finish higher on the week, in a story that remains poorly covered, and is why I continue to like – for a trade – long FXI, short QQQ. I’ve been expecting to see another march to higher yields like we saw last fall. The 10-year yield moved higher each and every day last week – a sign of things to come?

    • The Fed is getting pushed out of the picture. The first cut is expected in June, with a chance of it getting pushed to July. The market is still pricing in cuts at the September and November meetings (which I think is insane given how every issue, including monetary policy, is fodder for campaigns that seem as much about generating anger as hope). We are still at 3 cuts for the year, but I think there is a chance that the Fed changes the dots just a smidge (given all the inflation data) to show fewer than 3 cuts. That, or a change in next year’s expected end rate, could be punishing.

    • The move in yields, at the longer end, has not reflected increased term premium. Minimal (if any) concerns about the never-ending growth of federal debt, as the spread between 2s and 10s closed at -42 bps. I see no reason why this doesn’t get back to recent “best” levels of -20 or so, with my target for the summer being flat yield curves as risk premium returns and we see an end to the era of inversion everywhere you look.

  • Inflation and oil. It is clear that inflation, by a variety of measures, is “sticky.” A couple of things, actually a few things, bother me most.

    • Lots of “apologizing” about Owners Equivalent Rent. If you’ve read the T-Report for long, you know how much I hate how we calculated shelter. So yes, right now, it is overstating the current rise in shelter – BUT IT IS DOING THAT BECAUSE THE RISE WAS NEVER FULLY PRICED IN! Sorry for the “all caps” but yes, today’s inflation is likely overstated, but only because officially we under-reported it. Yes, this is a rant, but it probably goes beyond those dismissing rent.

    • Beyond dismissing rent. Most consumers think in terms of dollars. We live in a “nominal world.” So something that rose 10% a few years ago went from say $100 to $110. Now it “only” rose 3%, but it is 3% on a much larger starting point, creating a much higher dollar increase than it would have a few years ago. Add to that all the people who have been arguing that the prices they see in stores don’t seem to get used in official calculations and all the “substitutions” incorporated into the calculations artificially kept inflation lower. Basically, the real-world level of current inflation may never have been captured by the official data, leaving more room to catch up.

    • Oil. Energy prices contributed to recent rises in inflation. Apparently, many seem confident they will go back down. With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and the Middle East edging closer and closer to direct involvement with Iran, that does not seem like a bet I’d be comfortable with. I do like the energy sector, so I’m biased, but I think it is too early to dismiss the geopolitical risks associated with oil.

  • The U.S. consumer has been like a zombie for anyone betting against the U.S. economy. They just keep coming back to life. No matter what you think you’ve done, they seem to come back! Well, I think the consumer is rolling over. Debt is mounting. The job market is far from robust and has lost all of the momentum it had. It is at best “normal” like the years before COVID, and that might be a stretch.

While I don’t see “stagflation as a risk,” I think we are entering a period where we could see:

  • Higher yields coupled with a weakening economy and a Fed that is handcuffed by persistent inflation. Not a good mix.

  • In addition to a market positioned too aggressively that cannot expect much help from short covering.

While I don’t want to get into detail today, I think people staring at the VIX are looking in the wrong direction. This is a world of daily and weekly option flows that don’t show up in the VIX calculation. Unlike other strategies that have been difficult to understand (meme stocks for example), the 0DTE options market seems perfectly capable of trading from the call side of the market to the put side of the market. Many other strategies, like blindly selling vol, have tended to work in one direction and could really only be traded consistently from that direction. The 0DTE can work both ways and that could be the “shock” we need that disrupts this market.

For credit, look for CDX IG to go back above 60, maybe to 65. Not because of any serious problems in credit, but because spreads will be forced wider if I’m right on stocks.

So, instead of thinking about a 5% to 10% pullback in stocks, I’m much more concerned about a 10% or higher pullback along with 10-year yields breaking through 4.5%.

We didn’t answer the question posed at the start of the title, but I’m increasingly worried that we might be forced to find out what the competition is if markets start rolling over and lose the support of bonds, the Fed, and the few sectors that have done the heavy lifting.

On that note, I do promise to write “Up in Smoke” as a title of a T-Report (I couldn’t end this report without at least trying to get you to smile!)

Finally, Happy St. Patrick’s Day to those who celebrate!

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 12:50

Ukrainian Porn Star Poses With Mangled War Veterans For Charity Photo Shoot

Ukrainian Porn Star Poses With Mangled War Veterans For Charity Photo Shoot

First there was the bizarre contingent of pro-Gaza porn stars that twerked their way into the media limelight in support of Palestinians.  Now Ukraine appears to be hosting a charity calendar featuring porn actress Yulia Senyuk, also known as Josephine Jackson, posing with armless and legless war veterans wearing tuxedos.  Who could have guessed that porn stars would become a staple of public war relations?

Ukrainian porn actress Josephine Jackson takes part in a charity photo shoot with the military.
The photos will be included in a calendar, the proceeds from which will be used for rehabilitation and prosthetics for Ukrainian defenders. pic.twitter.com/rfDhkxzT4b

— Ukraine Front Line (@EuromaidanPR) March 16, 2024

The scene looks like something straight out of Paul Verhoeven's Starship Troopers, complete with mechanical prosthetic limbs and plenty of cleavage.  Sadly, the intent is not satirical.  The actress notes on her Instagram:

"You may ask why we chose theater and suits. It is because we have all seen our guys in military uniforms or in rehabilitation centers, which is, unfortunately, a very hackneyed topic, so most of you just ignore it. But this transformation reveals them from a completely different side, showing what refined, elegant and handsome gentlemen they are. It gives them more self-confidence and a sense of self-sufficiency. These are the emotions we should give them, not pity and tears... Believe me, this is more than enough for them. The stage of pity has long since passed, and now we need to give them a thirst for life by involving them in this kind of activities. And I know that they enjoyed it, and that's the most important thing..." 

You might be wondering why the calendar will not feature popular Ukrainian actresses, fashion models or perhaps the Ukrainian winner of the Miss Universe pageant, Angelina Usanova.  It's hard to say, but the optics are not great.  Since the beginning of the war the country has seen an unprecedented spike in prostitution as well as female refugees being recruited abroad for sex work.  The number of Ukrainian women working in prostitution has quintupled in Red-Light districts in European cities like Berlin, Germany.  It is estimated that around ten times as many Ukrainian women have entered prostitution globally in the past two years. 

The goal of raising funds for the rehabilitation of injured veterans is certainly a noble one.  However, since nothing travels outside of Ukraine without some level of propaganda gloss, one wonders what the intended message of this photo shoot really is?  Take an artillery round for Zelensky and maybe you too can spend an evening with a porn queen?

Ukraine has become one of the the biggest proxy wars since Vietnam in 1965, or the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, but it is also possibly the first war to ever be fought in the battlefields of social media.  Disinformation, spin and hype have buried the news feeds with the public left to sift through the debris for individual seeds of truth. 

In the midst of this chaotic struggle for online supremacy and popular sentiment it's not surprising that some promotional stunts get a little weird.  In desperation, Ukraine is willing to try anything to appeal to western populations and get that next injection of sweet NATO cheddar. And to be fair, westerners do love their pornography.       

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 12:15

Netanyahu Accuses Sen. Schumer Of 'Interference' In Israel's Democracy

Netanyahu Accuses Sen. Schumer Of 'Interference' In Israel's Democracy

Via Middle East Eye

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that calls from US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for new elections in Israel are "inappropriate". Schumer on Thursday had called for Netanyahu's government to be unseated, saying new leadership was needed in the country.

"As a lifelong supporter of Israel, it has become clear to me [that] the Netanyahu coalition no longer fits the needs of Israel after October 7," he said, referring to the Hamas attack in southern Israel that resulted in the deaths of almost 1,200 people. "The world has changed radically since then, and the Israeli people are being stifled right now by a governing vision that is stuck in the past."

On Sunday, Netanyahu hit back at Schumer, saying his comments were "totally inappropriate" and amounted to an interference in Israeli democracy.

Bloomberg via Getty Images

"I think what he said is totally inappropriate. It's inappropriate to go to a sister democracy and try to replace the elected leadership there," Netanyahu said in an interview on CNN.

Political leaders in the US have reportedly been increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu's leadership in Israel, particularly his insistence on pushing ahead with a planned assault on Rafah in Gaza, which currently hosts 1.5 million mostly displaced Palestinians sheltering near the Egyptian border.

Netanyahu reiterated his plans to attack the city on Sunday, vowing to uproot what he says are Hamas operatives. Israel's assault on Gaza has reportedly killed at least 31,645 people in Gaza, most of them women and children, according to the enclave's health ministry.

Netanyahu dismissed growing international pressure on Sunday, accusing them of forgetting the deaths on 7 October.

"To our friends in the international community I say: is your memory so short? So quickly you forgot about 7 October, the worst massacre committed against Jews since the Holocaust?" he said at the start of Sunday's cabinet meeting.

"So quickly you are ready to deny Israel the right to defend itself against the monsters of Hamas?"

Prior to 7 October, Netanyahu's government had been rocked by mass demonstrations by Israelis angry about his planned reforms to the judiciary in the country.

Though the war on Gaza has led to a decrease in the anti-Netanyahu protests, disapproval of his government over the reforms and his handling of the war has persisted.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 11:40

Musk Defends Former President, Scarborough Deletes, After Leftist Corporate Media Unleashes Trump "Bloodbath Hoax"

Musk Defends Former President, Scarborough Deletes, After Leftist Corporate Media Unleashes Trump "Bloodbath Hoax"

Update (1551ET): The walkbacks have already begun - with MSNBC's Joe Scarborough deleting his 'Bloodbath' post on X after getting called out by Musk.

NEW: MSNBC host Joe Scarborough has deleted his ‘Bloodbath’ tweet after getting called out by Elon Musk.

The propagandist claimed Trump said he would conduct “another bloodbath” if he lost the election, however Trump was talking about the auto industry.

Scarborough has not yet… pic.twitter.com/AQCTLdTNus

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) March 17, 2024

Now to see how this blatant callout is handled elsewhere in the media.

*  *  *

Corporate media and their woke allies on the Biden/Harris social media campaign team launched a disinformation and misinformation propaganda campaign against former President Trump, purposely misconstruing his speech at an event on Saturday. 

The blatant disinformation and misinformation by leftist newspapers, radicals in the Biden administration, and even Democrat lawmakers have been on full display over the last 15 hours. There has also been an awakening on X of just how bad Democrats are at propaganda - and they can't even make it believable anymore. 

Let's begin with the actual speech. On Saturday evening, X account EndWokeness posted a video of Trump at a campaign rally in Vandalia, Ohio. In it, Trump tells the audience that the American automobile industry will be a bloodbath if he's not re-elected because the Biden administration will allow Chinese cars to flood the market.  

Media narrative: Trump just called for a bloodbath if he loses the election

Trump is predicting a bloodbath in the automobile industry if he loses: pic.twitter.com/uO8DTwbp4Z

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) March 16, 2024

Almost immediately, legacy media outlets, such as NBC News, ABC News, and Politico, among others, took Trump's speech entirely out of context... 

Then, the official X account of Biden/Harris trimmed down the clip to just nine seconds, taking Trump's speech even more out of context. 

Trump: If I don't get elected, it’s gonna be a bloodbath. It’s gonna be a bloodbath for the country pic.twitter.com/BWpWORo9Hs

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 16, 2024

The Biden/Harris X account even released this ridiculous statement: 

Biden-Harris campaign statement on Trump tonight promising a “bloodbath” if he loses pic.twitter.com/8mBYh4QKnf

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) March 17, 2024

And the 'Bloodbath Hoax' by Democrats was even pushed on CNN this morning by the best stock trader who has ever lived: 

Pelosi just told CNN that Trump might "exact a bloodbath" if he loses

The Bloodbath Hoax is in full swing pic.twitter.com/iEF8oQhmu8

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) March 17, 2024

Meanwhile, Elon Musk commented on the absurd propaganda, saying, "Legacy media lies." 

Legacy media lies https://t.co/3yQHajk5BE

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 17, 2024

Musk added, "Yup, hoax-making in process. And it is surprisingly effective!" 

Yup, hoax-making in process.

And it is surprisingly effective!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 17, 2024

"Please send links from this platform to your friends who are still being misled by the legacy media!" said Musk.

Please send links from this platform to your friends who are still being misled by the legacy media!

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 17, 2024

The disinformation and misinformation campaign by the Democrats this weekend is right out in the open. And they're not even good at it! 

And you wonder why trust in corporate media is imploding to record lows as Americans are tired of being lied to for years. The result of breaking out of the corporate/government propaganda matrix has been the flood of Americans finding their news on X. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 11:05

VDH: Elite Heaven Or Real Hell On Earth?

VDH: Elite Heaven Or Real Hell On Earth?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

The horrific murder of Laken Riley by a repeated felony offender and illegal alien Jose Ibarra, 26, a Venezuelan citizen, was preventable — had federal immigration laws simply been enforced by the Biden administration.

When called out in his recent State of the Union address, President Joe Biden referenced the deceased Riley. But Biden misidentified her as “Lincoln Riley” — the USC football coach!

Biden only accurately noted that she “was killed by an ‘illegal.'”

True — but almost immediately the left was infuriated over Biden’s accurate use of the supposedly insensitive “illegal” for the murderer Ibarra.

Biden soon apologized for correctly identifying her killer as an illegal alien — but not for misidentifying the victim.

He left the callous impression that he was more upset about offending his open-borders base than about the savage beating of a young 22-year-old American nursing student.

Biden’s woke open-borders agenda supersedes any worry over the subsequent mounting number of Americans who have fallen victim to foreign gangs and criminals. He seems oblivious to the nearly 100,000 Americans who die from fentanyl imported across open borders.

The same idea of abstract humanity juxtaposed with concrete callousness towards humans characterizes much of the current leftist agenda.

The Biden administration envisions mandating the use of electric vehicles and banning natural gas appliances. These measures will supposedly help “save” the planet — even as they make life far more expensive and dangerous for the middle class and poor in the here and now.

We are told that biologically born males who transition to females have a civil right to compete in female sports.

Such transgender activism may sound compassionate in the abstract. Yet in the concrete, thousands of women are put in danger by competing against the much larger musculoskeletal frames and natural strength of transitioning males.

Moreover, tens of thousands of young female athletes are losing opportunities to excel and set records — thus destroying over a half-century of women’s efforts to reach parity with men’s sports.

In 2021, United Airlines president Scott Kirby bragged that his company was now devoted to ensuring that 50 percent of all trained pilots would be either people of color or women.

The Federal Aviation Administration had similar diversity, equity, and inclusion mandates for hiring air traffic controllers.

In 2023, Boeing bragged that it was using “inclusion” as a criterion for executive compensation. Pay from now on would be calibrated in large part on the success of hiring new employees on the basis of their race, gender, and sexual orientation.

In the abstract, ensuring that air travel “looks like America” is no doubt a noble goal.

But if such subordination of meritocracy is canonized without proper attention to the only criterion that really matters — the safety of the nearly 3 million American airline passengers who take 45,000 flights per day — lives will be needlessly lost.

Some data and recent anecdotal evidence suggest that something has now gone dangerously wrong with the entire airline industry.

In January 2023, thousands of domestic flights were canceled or delayed because of a series of Federal Aviation Administration computer failures. Over the last 10 years, near-crashes and collisions of commercial places have more than doubled.

Even scarier, in the last two weeks alone, United Airlines suffered numerous near-catastrophic events that may have involved crew lapses, air traffic controller errors, or problems with Boeing jet construction or maintenance — or all three. Specific details have mysteriously been kept from the public.

A United flight from San Francisco to Mexico had to make an emergency landing due to failing hydraulics. Another United flight bound for San Francisco from Sydney, Australia, had to return around due to a “maintenance issue.” Yet another flight out of Chicago O’Hare International Airport likewise suffered undisclosed “maintenance issues” and returned home.

At Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport, a United plane simply taxied off the runway and got stuck in the grass. Another United flight from San Francisco lost a wheel while taking off!

Yet another United flight from Houston to Florida was forced to make an emergency landing after one of its engines caught fire. At about the same time, a United flight bound for San Francisco from Hawaii experienced an engine failure in mid-flight.

Dozens were injured on a Boeing jet during a Chilean airline flight from Australia to New Zealand due to what officials called “a technical event during the flight which caused a strong movement.”

Anytime ideology and dogma trump merit, logic, and safety, the result is predictably scary and dangerous.

America needs to recalibrate its priorities to protect the lives and aspirations of all its citizens, regardless of their race and gender.

If our elites do not stop playing god and mandating their visions of heaven on earth, then they will surely ensure hell for us all.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 10:30

Statue Of Fat Black Woman Chosen To Adorn London's Fourth Plinth

Statue Of Fat Black Woman Chosen To Adorn London's Fourth Plinth

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

A statue of a fat black woman which “pays homage to a young, metropolitan woman of colour” will feature on Trafalgar Square’s Fourth Plinth in London from 2026 onwards, an announcement that was met with widespread derision.

The Fourth Plinth has become infamous for displaying vulgar modern art, although it is also now reliably used to push different variations of “the message”.

The statue is called Lady in Blue and according to the artist, Tschabalala Self, “pays homage to a young, metropolitan woman of colour who could be just one of many Londoners today.”

This is the new statue that will be displayed on the fourth plinth in Trafalgar Square, London in 2026 (real) https://t.co/CLvIiNwJKS pic.twitter.com/aDUQiDAIIr

— ɖʀʊӄքǟ ӄʊռʟɛʏ 🇧🇹🇹🇩 (@kunley_drukpa) March 15, 2024

Self previously described the nature of her ‘art’ in precisely the kind of pretentious, obscurantist babble you would expecting, saying it serves to “embrace and confound collective fantasies and assumptions surrounding the Black female body,” whatever that means.

Excited to reveal the winning #FourthPlinth artworks for 2026 & 2028 in Trafalgar Sq 🏛️ Lady in Blue by Tschabalala Self & Untitled by Andra Ursuţa!

Congratulations to all the shortlisted artists & big thanks to the Commissioning Group & our incredible partners ✨️ pic.twitter.com/e4XYAtxVpd

— Justine Simons OBE (@justinesimons1) March 15, 2024

Meanwhile, the ‘art’ that will adorn the Fourth Plinth from 2028 onwards is almost equally as bad.

Created by Romanian ‘artist’ Andra Ursuta, “The work points towards an uncertain future. It is made in a hyper-fragmented, paranoid time when public space, consensus and community continue to dissolve.”

It’s basically a green blob.

Romanian-born Andra Ursuța wins the Trafalgar Sq Fourth Plinth competition! Out of 7 artists shortlisted, 2 are declared winners. Andra Ursuța & Tschabalala Self, their works to take centre stage in 2026 & 2028. Fabulous end of a great week! pic.twitter.com/hzTROmhCRr

— Aura.Woodward (@AuraWoodward) March 15, 2024

Respondents on X weren’t very impressed.

Because obviously, a rotund African woman is the epitome of what Britain stands for. https://t.co/sjQsYFzJ41

— SL (@Steve_Laws_) March 15, 2024

British statues then: British statues now: pic.twitter.com/CHq7fKcrMs

— Scott Greer 6’2” IQ 187 (@ScottMGreer) March 15, 2024

YES! Exactly what Horatio Nelson would want displayed in Trafalgar Square.

The monument to our finest ever naval victory, arguably our greatest victory in any theatre of war next to Nelson’s column, honouring the man who masterminded it dying in the process.

A fat black chick!! https://t.co/uoKFdhOMrt

— Tristan Tate (@TateTheTalisman) March 15, 2024

Interesting new campaign... https://t.co/YKVqJ12cgO pic.twitter.com/ILwWzRRdJV

— Will 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (@anglofuturist) March 15, 2024

As we previously highlighted, London Mayor Sadiq Khan effectively blocked the placing of a statue of the late Queen Elizabeth in Trafalgar Square by green lighting an installation comprising of ‘transgender faces’ instead.

The ‘woke art’ consists of 850 faces of trans people who were mostly prostitutes. It will occupy the fourth plinth at Trafalgar Square for 6 months, and then be replaced by the fat black woman and the green blob.

The transgender faces installation, which will feature “marginalised sex workers,” got the go ahead despite just 23 per cent of Londoners approving it and 43 per cent saying they disliked it in a YouGov poll.

The ‘art work’ cost a total of £170,000 – all of it covered by the taxpayer.

Meanwhile, as we discuss below, actual works of art, namely paintings of the English countryside from 200 years ago by people like John Constable, are now being given trigger warnings by museums because they may evoke a “darker side” and stir “nationalist feelings”.

When will it ever end?

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 09:20

St. Patrick's Day Spending To Cross Seven-Billion Mark

St. Patrick's Day Spending To Cross Seven-Billion Mark

Saint Patrick was not only a fifth-century bishop and missionary instrumental in converting the Irish to Christianity, but he is also the namesake of one of the most important cultural celebrations on the island. St. Patrick's Day, or Lá Fhéile Pádraig as it's called in Irish, occurs on the alleged death date of the island's patron saint on March 17.

Originally a religious holiday, the Irish diaspora in the United States turned the occasion into a celebration largely divested from the liturgy and rather connected to wearing green and drinking Guinness.

As Statista's Florian Zandt details below, the commercialization of the holiday is also apparent in total and household spending in the U.S. connected to St. Patrick's Day.

According to estimates by the National Retail Foundation (NRF), overall spending for St. Patrick's Day in the United States is bound to cross the seven-billion mark for the first time in 2024, increasing by 57 percent compared to the 2015 spending numbers. Per-household spending is also up significantly compared to ten years prior, although this figure hasn't increased much since 2020.

Infographic: St. Patrick's Day Spending to Cross Seven-Billion Mark | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Data from the NRF survey also shows that 62 percent of respondents plan to celebrate the holiday in one way or another. 82 percent of those celebrating plan on wearing green, 29 percent want to cook a special dinner and 27 percent aim to spend St. Patrick's Day at a party in a bar or restaurant.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/17/2024 - 08:45
❌