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Alternate Trump Electors Push Back Against State Racketeering Charges In Federal Court

Alternate Trump Electors Push Back Against State Racketeering Charges In Federal Court

Authored by Matthew Vadum and Jackson Elliott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Three alternate presidential electors who argue their efforts to support former President Donald Trump in Georgia in the 2020 election were shielded by federal law, urged a federal judge on Sept. 20 not to return state racketeering charges against them to state court.

The federal removal hearing before Judge Steve C. Jones of the Northern District of Georgia is apparently the first test in federal court of alternate electors’ argument that they are immune to state prosecution because they were acting as federal officers. The judge was appointed in 2011 by President Barack Obama.

The evidentiary hearing in Atlanta lasted a little under three hours.

On Sept. 8, Judge Jones rejected the motion of former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows to remove the state election interference case against him to federal court. The judge ruled that he lacked jurisdiction to hear the case and found that Mr. Meadows’s “political activities,” such as “working with or working for the Trump campaign,” went beyond “the outer limits of the Office of the White House Chief of Staff.”

Mr. Meadows has asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit to review the judge’s decision. His lawyers argued in a brief filed on Sept. 18 that he “is entitled to removal under [the federal officer removal statute] because he has met the threshold for removal, which is low[.]”

President Trump, Mr. Meadows, the three alternate electors, and 14 other co-defendants were indicted (pdf) by a state grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, on Aug. 14 over the former chief executive’s challenge to the election in Georgia.

All the defendants in the case are accused of violating the Georgia RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations) Act from Nov. 4, 2020, which is the day after the presidential election, to Sept. 15, 2022, for their allegedly illegal efforts to challenge the presidential election results in Georgia, a state that President Joe Biden ultimately won—albeit narrowly.

The three alternate electors—David Shafer, Shawn Still, and Cathleen Latham—are all charged with violating the Georgia RICO statute, impersonating a public officer, and criminal attempt to commit filing false documents.

Mr. Shafer is a former Georgia state senator and former chairman of the Georgia Republican Party. He chaired the group of electors that met on Dec. 14, 2020, to cast their votes for President Trump.

Mr. Still is currently a Georgia state senator and used to be finance chairman of the Georgia Republican Party. He was elected in 2022 but was not in office when the electors met in December 2020. He served as secretary of the group of electors.

As the state constitution requires, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed a three-member panel to recommend whether Mr. Still should remain in office despite being indicted. The panel did not recommend the senator’s suspension, the governor’s office said on Sept. 15.

Ms. Latham used to chair the Coffee County Republicans.

In addition, Mr. Shafer and Mr. Still are each charged with two counts of forgery in the first degree; Ms. Latham is charged with one count of forgery in the first degree.

Mr. Shafer is also charged with three counts of false statements and writings; Mr. Still, two counts; and Ms. Latham, one count.

Ms. Latham is also charged with two counts of conspiracy to commit election fraud, one count of conspiracy to commit computer theft, one count of conspiracy to commit computer trespass, one count of conspiracy to commit computer invasion of privacy, and one count of conspiracy to defraud the state.

At the Sept. 20 removal hearing, the presidential electors’ attorneys told Judge Jones that the case should be heard in federal court because electors are, like congressmen, federal officers whose official conduct may not be challenged in state court.

Before the results of any presidential election are certain, both parties appoint electors who are expected to vote for their party’s standard-bearer based on the popular vote in the state. Both sets of electors are federal officers who are entitled to protection under federal law when they are doing their duty, the lawyers argued.

The attorneys likened what happened in the 2020 election in Georgia to what transpired when Republican Richard Nixon challenged the 1960 presidential vote in Hawaii. Eventually, Democrat John F. Kennedy narrowly prevailed after recounts, winning the state’s three electoral votes and becoming president.

But before Congress finalized the state results, Hawaii sent competing slates of Republican and Democrat electors to Congress for official certification. Presiding over the congressional count, then-Vice President Nixon considered both electoral slates but then ruled that the Democrat slate should be accepted and the Republican slate should be rejected.

The 1960 Hawaii Republican electors were not charged with a crime, so the 2020 Georgia Republican electors should also not have been charged with a crime, the lawyers implied.

The 2020 Georgia Republican electors were acting in good faith and were not impersonating electors, they said.

Before the so-called safe harbor date of Dec. 8, 2020, the state handles certification of the electors, but after the safe harbor date, Congress has jurisdiction over the election, the lawyers said.

Mr. Shafer’s attorney, Craig Gillen of the Savannah law firm of Gillen, Withers, and Lake, said the Trump electors did nothing wrong.

“What bothers me is that these three electors have been labeled by the state and implicitly by the media as fake,” he said.

“By federal law, these people were not fake, sham, or impersonators.”

“Both sets of electors were contingent,” he said, adding that the Electoral Count Act of 1887 contemplates states sending multiple slates of electors to Congress for the official counting of the electoral votes.

But after the safe harbor date, “the power is no longer with the state of Georgia—it’s gone back to Congress,” he said.

“You either like Donald Trump or you hate Donald Trump,” and this fact prejudices some people against those in the former president’s orbit, Mr. Gillen added.

Prosecutor Anna Green Cross pushed back, saying the state was “not the least bit interested in the political affiliation of those who committed criminal acts.”

The suggestion that the state is politically motivated in this case is “borderline offensive,” she said.

Moreover, there were attempts to keep the alternate elector meeting “completely under wraps,” Ms. Cross said.

“These private actors did not transform themselves into public electors by a criminal act,” she said.

Mr. Still’s lawyer, Tom Bever of the Atlanta law firm of Smith, Gambrell, and Russell, suggested the charges were absurd.

The electors were charged with casting a ballot, impersonating electors, and forgery of their own signatures, Mr. Bever said.

There is no question that each of these people became an elector and was appointed an elector in a completely proper manner,” the attorney said.

Mr. Bever said the Trump electors’ meeting was not held in a clandestine manner.

“Literally, the whole world was watching,” he said.

The meeting was attended by attorneys and the media, he said, adding it was “hardly your normal setting of a racketeering act.”

The electors “never dreamed they had done anything wrong,” Mr. Bever said.

Judge Jones concluded the hearing without deciding on the removal motions. It is unclear when he will rule.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 17:40

Democratic Mayor Of Dallas: "American Cities Need Republicans... & I'm Becoming One"

Democratic Mayor Of Dallas: "American Cities Need Republicans... & I'm Becoming One"

While the Democratic Mayor of Dallas says the city has thrived, Eric Johnson writes in a very frank WSJ op-ed that, elsewhere, Democratic policies have exacerbated crime and homelessness.

"The future of America’s great urban centers depends on the willingness of the nation’s mayors to champion law and order and practice fiscal conservatism.

Our cities desperately need the genuine commitment to these principles (as opposed to the inconsistent, poll-driven commitment of many Democrats) that has long been a defining characteristic of the GOP."

As we have written in detail previously, cities governed by Democrat mayors have seen the largest increases in homicide rates over the past year as well as registered the highest homicide rate per capita in Q1 out of 45 cities, according to a new report.

Homicide rates in 45 of the most populated American cities rose by approximately 10 percent on average between Q1, 2021 and Q1, 2023, and continue to rise, according to an April 26 report by WalletHub. Blue cities were found to have a higher increase in homicide rates compared to red cities. The report designated a city as red or blue based on the mayor’s political affiliation.

The top five cities that saw the greatest increase in per capita homicide are Richmond, Virginia; Memphis, Tennessee; Durham, North Carolina; Garland, Texas; and Washington, D.C.

Except for Garland, where Mayor Scott LeMay is a Republican, the remaining four cities have mayors who are affiliated with the Democratic Party.

The highest homicide rate per capita in the first quarter of 2023 was in Memphis at 14.19 per 100,000 residents. New Orleans, Louisiana, came in second at 12.76, followed by Baltimore, Maryland, with 10.47, St. Louis, Missouri, with 9.91, and Detroit, Michigan, with 8.52.

Excluding St. Louis, the other four cities have mayors affiliated with the Democratic Party. The mayor of St. Louis, Tishaura Jones, was a former Democrat member of the Missouri House of Representatives.

"In other words," the Dallas Mayor adds:

"American cities need Republicans - and Republicans need American cities."

And that's exactly what he does - changing his party affiliation to 'Republican', ready to leave office in 2027 as a Republican.

He is able to lift the 'mask' and see the problem that troubles so many of America's cities.

"Unfortunately, many of our cities are in disarray... Most of these local leaders are proud Democrats who view cities as laboratories for liberalism rather than as havens for opportunity and free enterprise."

Again, he nails it, daring to suggest the unmentionables that we have previously reported, Gregg W. Etter, a professor at the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Central Missouri, blamed the tendency of politicians to seek “simplistic, one-size-fits-all solutions to complex problems” as a reason behind the spike in homicides across the nation.

Politicians offer such solutions to gain favor with political interest groups during elections, he pointed out. For instance, when faced with the issue of police using force in isolated instances, such politicians might support defunding the police rather than dealing with problematic officers.

This ends up resulting in a less-effective police force, higher response times, lower morale among officers, and an “increasing unwillingness” to engage in proactive policing, he said.

This has left many police forces in a strictly reactive mode, only responding to crimes that have already occurred. In addition, no-cash bail rulings have put many dangerous criminals back onto the streets even though they are arrested several times for violent crimes,” Etter said.

“In cities where these two things are happening, the crime rate has spiked. You have less police officers and more dangerous criminals at large.”

"Too often, local tax dollars are spent on policies that exacerbate homelessness, coddle criminals and make it harder for ordinary people to make a living," writes Johnson.

"And too many local Democrats insist on virtue signaling - proposing half-baked government programs that aim to solve every single societal ill  - and on finding new ways to thumb their noses at Republicans at the state or federal level. Enough. This makes for good headlines, but not for safer, stronger, more vibrant cities."

He concludes, with a strong suggestion at the ballot box

"...the overwhelming majority of Americans who call our cities home deserve to have real choices—not “progressive” echo chambers—at city hall."

We can only imagine the anger raging among the leftists as this one man steps up and unleashes the terrible truth about liberal-run urbania. You're not supposed to say any of that in your out-loud voice.

Is it time for change?

Read the full letter here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 18:00

Will "Poor Man's Cocaine" Fuel The Next US Drug Crisis?

Will "Poor Man's Cocaine" Fuel The Next US Drug Crisis?

Authored by Jim Crotty via UnDark.org,

The cheap and highly addictive stimulant Captagon shows signs of following in the opioid fentanyl’s footsteps...

THE OPIOID CRISIS continues to rage across the U.S., but there are some positive, if modest, signs that it may be slowing. Overdose deaths due to opioids are flattening in many places and dropping in others, awareness of the dangers of opioid abuse continues to increase, and more than $50 billion in opioid settlement funds are finally making their way to state and local governments after years of delay. There is still much work to be done, but all public health emergencies eventually subside. Then what?

First, it’s important to realize that synthetic opioids like fentanyl will never fully disappear from the drug supply.

They are too potent, too addictive, and perhaps most importantly, too lucrative. Opioids, like Covid-19, are here to stay, consistently circulating in the community but at more manageable levels.

More alarming is what may take its place. Since 2010, overdoses involving both stimulants and fentanyl have increased 50-fold. Experts suggest this dramatic rise in polysubstance use represents a “fourth wave” in the opioid crisis, but what if it is really the start of a new wave of an emerging stimulant crisis?

Substance abuse tends to move in cycles. Periods with high rates of depressant drug use (like opioids) are almost always followed by ones with high rates of stimulant drug use (like methamphetamine and cocaine), and vice versa. The heroin crisis of the 1960s and 1970s was followed by the crack epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s, which gave way to the current opioid epidemic. As the think tank scholar Charles Fain Lehman quipped, “As with fashion, so with drugs — whatever the last generation did, the next generation tends to abhor.” The difference now is the primacy of synthetic drugs — that is, illicit substances created in a lab that are designed to mimic the effects of naturally occurring drugs.

Today, anyone with a few thousand dollars and internet access can find instructions to build their own little drug empire. Look no further than “Breaking Bad,” the hit television series in which a high school chemistry teacher starts cooking high-quality methamphetamine out of an RV to help provide for his family. “Breaking Bad” is of course a work of fiction, but in the age of synthetic drugs, the plotline is not that far-fetched.

Back in the real world, methamphetamine has already become a significant threat. From 2015 to 2019, overdose deaths attributed to methamphetamine nearly tripled, according to a study by the National Institute on Drug Abuse, a staggering increase driven primarily by its combination with fentanyl. And yet, even with methamphetamine’s use on the rise, it still trails America’s favorite illicit stimulant drug — cocaine — by a significant margin. In the latest National Survey on Drug Use and Health, more than twice as many adults aged 18 or older reported using cocaine over methamphetamine in their lifetime.

Cocaine holds a special place in American pop culture. Long considered a party drug, cocaine has often been associated with celebrities, lawyers, and so-called finance bros, and its sale and use has been romanticized in music, TV, and cinema. The sad reality is that for the year preceding April 2023, more than 27,000 Americans died while using cocaine, according to provisional statistics from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It is indeed a hell of a drug.

But its days may be numbered.

The vast majority of cocaine is currently produced in three countries in the world — Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia — primarily due to a favorable climate and a cultural affinity for the coca plant from which cocaine is derived. But what if, instead of being produced in the jungles of South America, cocaine — or something like it — could be manufactured anywhere?

This is not a new idea. In the last decade alone, illicit drug chemists have synthesized more than 1,200 new psychoactive substances, or NPS, also known as designer drugs or research chemicals, in search of a better high. So far, none of these lab-made drugs have threatened to unseat cocaine, but with advances in artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and biotechnology, it is only a matter of time until some enterprising chemist strikes white gold.

Officials in Europe recently sounded the alarm about counterfeit Captagon, an amphetamine-like drug that produces many of the same physiological effects as cocaine. Often referred to as “poor man’s cocaine,” Captagon is already wildly popular in the Middle East where it sells for as little as $3 per pill and fuels the Gulf states’ party scene.

Captagon is the trade name for fenethylline, a chemical compound related to natural neurotransmitters like dopamine and epinephrine. It was first developed in the 1960s to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, narcolepsy, and depression, but was later banned worldwide due to its high potential for abuse. Although still referred to as Captagon, virtually all the pills seized today are counterfeit and comprised of a hodge-podge of dangerous substances, including fenethylline, amphetamine, methamphetamine, and even caffeine.

In this way, Captagon is a lot like the counterfeit oxycodone pills flooding the U.S. drug market: They are advertised as one drug but contain another. And because they come in pill form, they are more approachable to the average drug consumer, who tend to associate pills with legitimate prescription medications.

While most drug overdose deaths are currently attributed to synthetic opioids like fentanyl, cocaine and methamphetamine carry significant risks of their own. Stimulants place extreme strain on the body’s regulatory and cardiovascular system and increase the risk of heart attack, stroke, or death. And unlike opioids, there is no miracle overdose reversal drug like naloxone — which was recently made available over the counter in the U.S. — or medication-assisted treatments for stimulant use disorders.

Interestingly, late last year the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration did not increase the annual production quotas for several amphetamine-based prescription medications, including Adderall and Ritalin, although drugmakers had raised concerns about ongoing shortages. The agency’s response was due partly to concerns that aggressive marketing of these drugs could spark the next crisis. Recent studies suggest the use of ADHD medication by young adults does not necessarily lead to the use of illicit drugs in the future, but if shortages persist, will users turn to the black market as they did with prescription opioids?

The illicit drug trade is surprisingly regional, and preferences come and go. Just because a substance is popular in one region of the world doesn’t mean it will inevitably become popular in another. But Captagon displays all the hallmarks of the next big thing for the American public. Like fentanyl, it has a natural user base, is cheap and easy to make, and is highly addictive. It also avoids bizarre side effects (such as a notorious case of face-eating and other unusual behaviors) sometimes encountered with NPS.

It is difficult to predict what form the next drug crisis may take, but I believe one thing is certain: There will be another crisis. Early indications and warnings will be essential to identify the next threat and protect health and safety. Public health and law enforcement organizations must improve data collection and monitoring of emerging drug threats through intelligence collection, wastewater analysis, and forensic testing. They must also enhance information sharing and collaboration across the prevention, supply reduction, and treatment continuum. And the U.S. and its partners must act now to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past — before it’s too late.

*  *  *

Jim Crotty is the former Deputy Chief of Staff at the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and a member of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime’s network of experts. He is currently a Supervisory Criminal Research Specialist with the DC Metropolitan Police Department and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 18:20

Sen. Murphy Slams Biden Plan To Commit 'American Blood' To Saudi Arabia

Sen. Murphy Slams Biden Plan To Commit 'American Blood' To Saudi Arabia

Among the few influential Congress members to push back against Saudi Arabia and Washington's decades-long close partnership has been Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. 

This week it was widely reported that as part of US efforts to achieve Saudi-Israel normalization, the White House could strike a new defense pact with Riyadh, which would require American military intervention if Saudi Arabia were to ever come under direct attack. 

"Under such an agreement, the United States and Saudi Arabia would generally pledge to provide military support if the other country is attacked in the region or on Saudi territory," the NY Times reported earlier this week.

AFP via Getty Images

The report said, based on a US official, that such an agreement would resemble current military pacts with Japan and South Korea.

Sen. Murphy on the heels of this reporting is warning that the US shouldn't commit "American blood" to Saudi Arabia. 

He posed in a Wednesday CNN interview when discussing US-Saudi relations, "Is this the kind of stable regime that we should commit American blood to defending?"

According to a description of the CNN segment in Responsible Statecraft

Appearing on CNN, Murphy said that he supported the idea of the Biden administration brokering a deal in the Middle East, saying it would be "good for the United States if there is peace between the Gulf and in particular between Saudi Arabia and Israel," but questioned the price that Washington is willing to pay to accomplish that objective.

Murphy ticked off a list of human rights abuses that Saudi Arabia has been linked to, specifically the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the recent reported killing of hundreds of migrants crossing over the country’s border with Yemen. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership, Saudi Arabia also launched the war on Yemen, which continues to be one of the greatest humanitarian disasters in the world today. In 2018, Murphy was one of the lead co-sponsors of a War Powers resolution that would have ended the United States’ involvement in that war.

And addressing the reports that the Biden administration is pursuing a defense pact with the kingdom, Murphy continued, "I would be very wary of committing the United States, through a treaty, to the defense of Saudi Arabia."

Various polls continue to show the American public has soured on the historic US-Saudi partnership, which has been based largely on oil and weapons, especially after recent revelations of Riyadh's involvement in the 9/11 terror attacks.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 18:40

The Rise Of Hux-Well

The Rise Of Hux-Well

Authored by Jeff Einstein via 'The Quality Of Life Resistance Movement' Substack,

Noam Chomsky stopped just one rung shy of perfection with his illuminating book, Manufacturing Consentabout how commercial media work as extensions of government and corporate power to manufacture the consent of the masses. Likewise, Matt Taibbi’s title, Hate, Inc. is a near-perfect indictment of cable and digital news profit models that manufacture and prioritize enmity to the exclusion of the truth and the common good.

Both works fall just one rung shy of perfection, however, not because they aren’t impressive examples of applied critical thought and insight, but because neither consent nor hate are the primary products of commercial media. Rather, they are toxic byproducts of a commercial mass media whose primary product is addiction…

“The effect of mass media is not to elicit belief but to maintain the apparatus of addiction.” — Christopher Lasch

In the early 21st century, we turned the corner from a society in which addiction was the exception to the rule to a society in which addiction became the rule. By 2004, still some years before social media, the smartphone, and streaming media secured their reputations as history’s most perfect narcotics, the average American — according to the Ball State University Middletown Media Studies report (the first large-scale observational study of American media consumption habits) — was already consuming more than eleven hours of media each and every day.

Concurrently, TV Everywhere, the commercial imperative behind the trillion-dollar campaigns for high-speed bandwidth and streaming HDTV, was ordained as the latest media industry mantra — part of an all-hands-on-deck digital blitzkrieg to normalize late-stage addiction.

Since then, hundreds of studies, articles, books, and documentaries have confirmed what anyone with a smartphone, social media account or a teenager already knows or suspects: we are a nation of media addicts — by design. We are, per Stanford addiction researcher Dr. Anna Lembke, a Dopamine Nation. The scientific, theological, and lay juries are in: smartphones, streaming HDTV, and social media are now — by far — the primary narcotics of choice in what I call the Great Age of Addiction.

“Every form of addiction is bad, no matter whether the narcotic be alcohol or morphine or idealism.” — Carl Jung

What Carl Jung failed to mention at the time was the practical reason why all addictions are bad: because all addictions — regardless of the narcotics — are manifestations of behavioral excess. As such, they all steal our time and money and freedom — none more ruthlessly or efficiently than our default meta-addiction to all things media and all things digital.

Needless to say, we didn’t just suddenly wake up one morning to discover that we had become a society of media addicts overnight. We became a society of media addicts the same way we became a society of institutions too big to fail. What happened to us (and what we allowed to happen), happened gradually over decades. Like too big to fail, it happened not as an unintended consequence of a failure to plan, or the unfortunate fallout from a lousy plan. Like too big to fail, state-sponsored default addiction is the plan.

“The model of ownership, in a society built round mass consumption, is addiction.”
— Christopher Lasch

In the Great Age of Addiction, the meta-message we hear most is always the same binge-worthy call to action: “Eat all you want,” our digital overlords tell us over and over again. “We’ll make more.” Everything else, like the manufacture of consent and hate, follows…

Of course, commercial mass media’s essential job in a culture of mass consumption is to promote and protect the narrow interests of the ruling elite, who now control virtually all of institutional America, including the corporate media, the technomedia cartel (with the current exception of Twitter), finance, the entertainment industry, academia and public education, all major surveillance and law enforcement agencies, all other major government agencies, and all major NGOs. Institutional dissenters are few and far between in the Great Age of Addiction.

The manufacture of default addiction in the 21st century is a compliance mechanism borrowed straight from the pages of Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World — the story of a dystopian society controlled by state-sponsored addiction to soma, sex, and endless entertainment…

“There will be, in the next generation or so, a pharmacological method of making people love their servitude, and producing dictatorship without tears, so to speak, producing a kind of painless concentration camp for entire societies, so that people will in fact have their liberties taken away from them, but will rather enjoy it.” — Aldous Huxley

Our own descent into the grips of state-sponsored default addiction was much accelerated in the early 21st century by the algorithmic tools of digital scale — behavioral targeting, Big Data, and AI — deployed en masse against foreign and domestic populations for the past generation by massive institutions in a classically fascist union of private and government interests.

"Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power." — Benito Mussolini

Predictably, addiction is now a cradle-to-grave relationship for the children of the 21st century, an endless parade of state-sanctioned psychotropics, sexualization, and numerous other substance and behavioral addictions — not least our meta-addiction to all things media and all things digital. Our lives as addicts begin these days in early childhood, usually well before we can read — by design. Understandable, therefore, that the most compelling and intimate relationships in our lives as mass consumers of mass commercial media and just about everything else are the relationships we cultivate with our own narcotics — the same relationships designed to breed compliance, complacency, and consent.

In recent years we have witnessed the addition of yet another dystopian vision to the American cultural stew. Unlike the Huxleyan model, this one is concerned far less with the bemused manufacture of addicted consent, already fait accompli in the Great Age of Addiction, and far more with the iron-fist mechanics of totalitarian enforcement.

After all, even societies like ours, societies whose citizens have been duly converted into passive addicts in order to manufacture compliance and consent on behalf of a ruling elite — must deal with outliers and the occasional rise of populist movements. What is the ruling elite to do with those who refuse or fail to comply?

What, American elites have asked us in recent years, are we to do with the tens of millions of Donald Trump voters, the populist MAGA movement, January 6th rioters, and angry parents who suddenly show up uninvited to school board meetings? What, ask blue-state governors, blue-city mayors, and the W.H.O. are we to do with anti-vax monsters who refuse to comply with covid lockdown, vaccine, and mask mandates? What, the Canadian oligarchs ask, are we to do with all these Nazi rogue truckers? What, ask the movers and shakers of civil society as they step off their private jets in Davos, are we to do with those who deny the science of climate change? What, ask the academicians and public school policy makers are we to do with those who deny gender-affirming care? What, ask the politicians, are we to do with those who deny election results? What, ask the global elite, are we to do with the anti-war Putin sympathizers who threaten the Liberal World Order, refuse to support the battle for democracy and freedom, and casually imperil so many Ukrainian lives?

What happens when the Huxleyan model of manufactured consent and compliance via state-sanctioned addiction fails to keep them all in check? To properly manage these and future populist miscreants, the ruling elite have borrowed from the 20th century’s other great literary dystopia: George Orwell’s 1984In it, Orwell describes a society ruled and controlled not by state-sponsored default addiction, but by 24/7 surveillance, linguistic thought control, the wholesale manufacture of abject hatred, and jackboot-enforced fear — all state-sponsored and manufactured.

In Orwell’s classic dystopian vision, state-sanctioned violence is converted from something we fear into something we cheer. Each and every morning members of the Outer Party of Oceania are required by the elite Inner Party to participate in the daily Two Minutes Hate — 120 seconds of publicly expressed mob contempt and disgust for fabricated public enemy and terrorist, Emmanuel Goldstein…

In retrospect, the fictional execration of the Two Minutes Hate seems almost quaint when compared to the real thing today, an endless torrent of 1984-inspired venom and vitriol spewed on cable news and social media. More ominously, however, in the past few years the primary focus of our institutionally inspired animus has been turned inward, from foreign to domestic enemies of the state.

Nowadays, the new-and-improved Two Minutes Hate runs 24/7 nonstop, and the fabled Emmanuel Goldstein has been replaced by Donald Trump, his legions of deplorables, and the white-supremacist, transphobic, anti-vax MAGA insurrectionists of January 6th — the day that almost lived in infamy.

To keep today’s unwashed and under-educated working class in line, the ruling elite call upon the mostly white, mostly college educated, and mostly affluent institutional shock troops and street thugs of Wokeism, last deployed en masse in the summer of 2020 to burn down poor black neighborhoods in the name of anti-racism…

State-sponsored corporate shock troops promote arson and looting in poor black neighborhoods in the name of woke anti-racism.

Everything about Wokeism is derivative of 1984, beginning with the perversely dangerous assertion that speech is violence: the epitome of 21st-century DoubleSpeak…

War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Truth, Speech is Violence: the Orwellian mantras of Wokeism…

Further homage to Orwell is everywhere manifest in official Woke vernacular, informed and enhanced at any given moment by an ever-expanding style guide of pandering pronouns and euphemisms designed to confer quasi-scientific status and legitimacy on toxic social contagions like climate change, anti-racism, and critical gender theory — bastard stepchildren of a thoroughly corrupt and kleptocratic academia that sits like a tin crown atop an equally corrupt and kleptocratic public school system. In the end, it seems, social justice or climate justice or racial justice or trans justice or any other form of justice that requires a modifier is nothing more than good old-fashioned mob justice at digital scale.

With almost total control of institutional America — including academia and public education, the technomedia and corporate media giants, corporate finance, the Fortune 100, the DHS, the FBI, the DOJ, the CIA, all major NGOs, global think tanks, and the entire surveillance-state apparatus — the Woke machine’s eagerness to jettison civil liberties and resort to political violence whenever it wants is testimony to complete and unmitigated institutional power in the near-total absence of accountability.

Institutionally, America is now a one-party town with the power and will to lavish DEFCON 1 levels of hatred and fear upon half the population of the country with casual disregard. We should be so lucky to confine their hate to only two minutes a day.

Unfortunately, all one-party towns breed intolerance and corruption. As a study in illiberal intolerance that would humble both Big Brother and Mustapha Mond in equal measure, the Wokeists are the ruling elite’s Praetorian Guard in a global class war against poor and middle class people of all colors worldwide. Against you, your family, and your community.

So there you have it: the compliance mechanism of state-sponsored default addiction borrowed from Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World on the one hand paired with the enforcement mechanism of 24/7 surveillance, linguistic thought control, and institutional terror borrowed from George Orwell’s 1984 on the other. Both at digital scale. They come together now as Huxwell — a global 21st-century adaptation of 20th-century totalitarianism.

Huxwell — equal doses of both dystopian visions, equal measures of drug-induced compliance and Stasi-style enforcement — with a little Mary Shelley tossed in for good measure…

Huxwell, however, ain’t your father’s totalitarianism. Three primary factors distinguish 21st-century Huxwellian totalitarianism from its 20th-century counterparts:

  1. Digital scale
    Back in the 20th century, Western totalitarianism was confined to specific nations and cultures. Today, however, it engulfs entire continents like North America, Europe, and Australia. Driven by global institutions of immense digital scale and reach, the totalitarian hegemony of Huxwell follows in the imperial footsteps of Western consumer culture: powered over the past two generations by trillions of microchips and thousands of server farms. And unlike Nazi Germany, Huxwell cannot be crushed by external forces because the forces large enough to crush it are all in league with it.

  2. Rise of the Bureaucrat
    Today’s Western totalitarians, at least those emerging now in Western democracies, are less akin to the larger-than-life fascists of the 20th century —like Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, and Mao — and more like your Uncle Joe and Aunt Jacinda. Today’s Western totalitarians are career politicians and unelected apparatchiks: dull, nondescript, and wholly unremarkable except in the power they wield and their unquestioning loyalty to the state. The Huxwellian totalitarians of today personify what Hanna Arendt described as the banality of evil.

  3. The Great Age of Addiction
    Back in the 20th century addiction was still the exception to the rule. In the 21st-century rise of Huxwell, addiction is the rule.

Huxwell: the confluence of state-sponsored default addiction and the institutional tyranny of runaway digital scale. Huxwell: the go-to Chief Compliance Officer and Enforcer-in-Chief — all rolled up into one totalitarian mega-state. Huxwell: a monster designed to crush populist political resistance while the ruling elite ransack the joint. Huxwell, the Great Reset come to life...

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 19:00

Happy Little Money Tree? Bob Ross 'Rookie Card' Painting Goes On Sale For Nearly $10 Million

Happy Little Money Tree? Bob Ross 'Rookie Card' Painting Goes On Sale For Nearly $10 Million

The very first painting from famed painter and television host Bob Ross's The Joy of Painting program has gone on sale for nearly $10 million.

That's the price a Minneapolis gallery is asking for "A Walk in the Woods," the first of more than 400 paintings created by Ross during his show's 11-year run.

"It is season one, episode one of what you would call the rookie card for Bob Ross," said gallery owner Ryan Nelson of Modern Artifact.

On that first episode, Ross stressed that painting doesn't need to be pretentious.

"We have avoided painting for so long because I think all of our lives we’ve been told that you have to go to school half your life, maybe even have to be blessed by Michelangelo at birth, to ever be able to paint a picture," said Ross in 1983. "And here, we want to show you that that’s not true. That you can paint a picture."

A screenshot from the premiere of The Joy of Painting shows the painter Bob Ross with the work, A Walk in the Woods, which is up for sale. (via npr.org)

Ross, who served in the Air Force for 20 years before hosting his show, died in 1995 due to complications from lymphoma.

"What this piece represents is the people’s artist," said Nelson. "This isn’t an institution that’s telling you that Bob Ross is great. It’s not some high-brow gallery telling you that Bob Ross is great. This is the masses, the population in the world that are saying that Bob Ross is great."

The first season of “The Joy of Painting” was filmed in Falls Creek, Virginia, and the painting from Ross’ first show was sold months later to raise funds for the local PBS station. A volunteer at the station bought the painting for an undisclosed price and hung it in her home for 39 years until getting in touch with Nelson, who has bought and sold more than 100 of Ross’ works.

Nelson bought the painting last year and then gave it a “not for sale” price of $9.85 million, said publicist Megan Hoffman. -Fox5

Watch Ross paint "A Walk in the Woods":

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 19:20

Can Trump Thread The Needle On Abortion?

Can Trump Thread The Needle On Abortion?

Authored by Jack Bevan via RealClearPolitics.com,

In the first of five newly scheduled visits to the Hawkeye State, Donald Trump arrived in northeast Iowa with a warning.

“In order to win in 2024, Republicans must learn how to properly talk about abortion,” he told an audience of some 2,000 potential voters, packed into a ballroom here.

"This issue cost us unnecessarily but dearly in the midterms. It cost us dearly, really, and unnecessarily."

Amid his customary MAGA slogans and jokes at the expense of Ron DeSantis, the moment stood in stark relief as a rare attempt at clear-eyed, political sobriety on Trump’s part. It’s also the latest in a week-long saga in which Trump, the self-described “most pro-life president in history,” has sought to loudly position himself as the GOP’s resident moderate on abortion. It began with a bang on Sunday, when the former president denounced the idea of a six-week “fetal heartbeat” ban on abortion as a “terrible mistake,” and pledged to negotiate a compromise with Democrats on the issue.

Ever since the 2022 Dobbs decision that vacated Roe v. Wade, abortion has emerged as a highly salient issue that cuts in Democrats’ favor. This summer, it emerged as a flashpoint dividing the Republicans’ crowded presidential primary field – and nowhere is this more true than in Iowa. Participants in the state’s first-in-the-nation GOP caucus are more likely to identify as pro-life than anything else, and victory in the state is nigh impossible without the support of evangelical Christians, a majority of whom enthusiastically support Iowa’s six-week abortion ban.

Trump’s campaign knows all this, but his concern appears to be with electability in swing states during the general election – which is the kind of luxury available only to a candidate leading the primary field by 40 points in the polls.

On stage, Trump recalled the GOP’s recent losses in Michigan and Pennsylvania: “Good candidates” who ultimately “got clobbered” because they failed to read the room on abortion.

Trump may see something in the tea leaves for 2024, as well. At the GOP debate in Milwaukee last month, eight of Trump’s most prominent challengers all took the opportunity to identify as some shade of “pro-life.” But in the weeks since, the only challenger to have moved the needle against him has been Nikki Haley – the lone woman on stage, who drew a sharp contrast with the pack when she offered a nuanced take on the issue, and rebuked the idea that a Republican president could pass any kind of federal abortion ban.

“No Republican president can ban abortions any more than a Democrat president could ban all those state laws," she said in Milwaukee.

"Don’t make women feel like they have to decide on this issue, when you know we don’t have 60 Senate votes."

Notably, a September 7 poll by Fox found Haley to have a better hypothetical matchup against Joe Biden than any other GOP candidate, Trump included. But others in the race insist the path forward is to the right of Trump’s current post. At a Saturday town hall with Iowa evangelicals in Des Moines, his former sidekick called for a nationwide 15-week ban, in a direct response to Haley.

“It’s an idea whose time has come,” Pence said.

“Why would we leave unborn babies in California and Illinois and New York to the devices of liberal state legislatures and liberal governors? We need to stand for the unborn, all across America.”

And for Ron DeSantis, who signed a six-week ban identical to Iowa’s in Florida last March, it might be just what his struggling campaign needed. The campaign took to Iowa’s radio waves the morning after Trump’s “horrible mistake” clip went viral, ready to position himself as the more authentic pro-life candidate.

“I don’t know how you can even make the claim that you’re somehow pro-life if you’re criticizing states for enacting protections for babies that have heartbeats,” DeSantis said in an interview with Radio Iowa on Monday.

“I think if [Trump’s] going into this saying he’s going to make the Democrats happy with respect to right to life, I think all pro-lifers should know that he’s preparing to sell you out.”

On its surface, it would seem like an easy inroad for the Florida governor. But it may not be so simple. When RealClearPolitics spoke to Emerson College’s Spencer Kimball, he pointed to a counterintuitive finding in their post-debate Iowa poll. Trump was found to have roughly equivalent support among Republicans both against and in favor of a complete federal abortion ban (51% and 52%, respectively).

“There’s this idea that the abortion issue is really driving, or that it’ll curtail Trump somehow, but I don’t see that. He’s getting it from both directions,” Kimball said.

“The issues just don’t line up perfectly, where if you go with one thing, everyone will fall in line.”

Kimball also felt that Trump’s anxieties about another pro-choice “clobbering” may be justified, based on recent electoral losses for the GOP, like the Michigan governorship. Democrat Gretchen Whitmer managed to overperform last November, in part thanks to messaging that leaned heavily into anxiety around “reproductive rights.”

“You had, in my opinion, a clear example of somebody ‘staunch pro-life’ and somebody ‘staunch pro-choice’,” Kimball said of the race.

“We thought it would be somewhat competitive. It was not, and it really speaks to how motivating abortion can be as an issue.”

Is the pro-life right forever doomed to moderation, then? Not necessarily. In a statement to RCP, Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the advocacy group SBA Pro-Life America, provided an alternate telling of 2022’s Red Wave That Wasn’t.

Republican governors who exceeded expectations that year – Georgia’s Brian Kemp, Texas’ Greg Abbott, and, yes, Florida’s Ron DeSantis – were all unabashedly pro-life in their campaigns.

“Life is a winning issue for those that speak clearly and confidently,” Dannenfelser explained.

“Republicans need to stand firm in serving mothers and protecting the most innocent among us. And when they do, they see great success. Governors who boldly spoke on pro-life won by double-digit margins in the midterms against pro-abortion candidates.”

Ashley McGuire, a senior fellow at the Catholic Association, amplified this point, saying that successful candidates in 2022 were not only pro-life, but were able to “clearly define their opponent's unpopular no-limits extremism” as well.

“Pro-choice extremists are playing dangerous rhetorical games with voters and using deceptive language in their ballot initiative efforts, and so it’s more important than ever that pro-life politicians clarify their positions and clearly define those of their opponents,” McGuire said.

It’s here that both sides of the GOP’s schism of the week seem to agree. In Dubuque on Wednesday, Trump stressed to the audience that a lasting pro-life victory would come through regaining leverage and reframing the issue around the extremes of the left.

“Pro-Lifers aren’t the radicals. They’re the radicals!” Trump said Wednesday. Should horror stories of practices like “post-birth” abortion become more widely known, Trump argued, it would become clear that “nobody wants that, not even Democrats.”

And in the short term? Trump is hoping Iowans remember that he’s still the guy who overturned Roe v. Wade. Challengers looking to attack him on this issue must tip-toe around the fact that his Supreme Court appointments are the only reason this debate is possible in the first place.

“The same people attacking us now are those who have been failing you for decades,” Trump said in Dubuque, referring to the hardline pro-lifers within the party.

“Unlike them, I don’t just talk, I get the job done. I got this job done.”

Trump’s rivals, of course, are hoping he’ll never have the chance to be proven right in the general election. At least one group seems to believe Trump’s gambit will pay off, though: Democrats reportedly scrambled the metaphorical jets following Trump’s interview on Sunday, anxious that they won’t be able to draw an effective contrast with Trump on what was previously seen as a “sensitive issue.”

Republicans like DeSantis, though, may finally have the contrast they were looking for. Although Trump isn’t expected to attend next week’s GOP debate in Simi Valley, Calif., we can expect the contrast will be on full display when he and DeSantis attend California’s GOP convention, two days later.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 19:40

The Great Debt Fiasco: How Washington's 'Reckless And Opportunistic' Pandemic Splurge Jeopardized America's Future

The Great Debt Fiasco: How Washington's 'Reckless And Opportunistic' Pandemic Splurge Jeopardized America's Future

As the US blows past $33 trillion in national debt for the first time - and adds roughly $1 billion in new debt every hour, a comprehensive new report from the Heritage Foundation reveals that the US government has tacked on $7.5 trillion in new debt over past two years alone, drawing a stark image of America's economic prospects.

The report sheds light on a series of colossal spending packages rolled out between March 2020 and December 2022, amounting to an astronomical $7.464 trillion in debt, or a staggering $57,400 per household.

The Heritage Foundation splits the ordeal into three components: the nature of federal spending, the Federal Reserve's role in this fiasco, and the impending ramifications of this debt accumulation. The conclusions drawn are far from comforting. Much of the pandemic-era expenditure was not only unwarranted but actively detrimental, leaving the country grappling with an inflation surge, labor shortages, and broken supply chains, Fox News reports.

"The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed unprecedented federal fiscal and monetary actions that wasted trillions of dollars," said the Heritage experts.

Indeed, most of this drunken spending was done in the name of a virus that kills less than 1% of those it infects (mostly the elderly and the obese), and employed extreme lockdown measures which were no more effective than countries that refused to do the same.

The authors say that the US Congress failed to couple any justifiable pandemic spending with measure to reduce future deficits.

"A looming fiscal crisis has shifted from a long-term concern to a current event. Congress must return to responsible governance for America to avoid further economic calamity," the report concludes.

"When there's a supply shock, when the economy tumbles off a cliff, all the government can do is make the recovery longer and slower by trying to give you a sugar pill on the front end," said Co-author Richard Stern, Director of the Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget at The Heritage Foundation. "That's what happened here. We are now suffering worse four years later because the government did things in the moment to make it look a little better."

Breaking it down, $2.22 trillion was spent by the Trump administration's March 2020 COVID response and a December 2020 stimulus package. The rest was spent by the Biden administration via the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and other various packages.

According to Heritage President Kevin Roberts, the report's findings "explain how we got here and provide recommendations for extinguishing the fire so that we can change course and reduce the severe economic pain facing everyday Americans across the country."

"Inflation doesn’t just happen; it is a direct result of overbearing, clumsy, dysfunctional government policies," said Roberts. "While everyday Americans suffer under the hidden tax of Biden's crippling inflation – at the gas pump and checkout counters, in utility bills, rents, and car payments – Congress and the President have an unending appetite for more spending, regulation, and subsidies."

Yikes

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 21, 2023

The report also notes that the so-called Inflation Reduction Act is "a complete misnomer" that has only done the exact opposite.

"This reckless and politically opportunistic spending spree has left the U.S. with a weakened economy, an inflation crisis, and a looming debt crisis. The volume and nature of the spending spree helped to create skyrocketing inflation and interest rates and created a labor shortage, reducing real household incomes and leaving store shelves bare and supply chains broken."

What does this mean for the future?

According to the authors, "The amount of damage caused by the federal spending spree is immense, and the size and scope of the long-term fiscal problem can be overwhelming," reads the report's final paragraph. "Policymakers must address this reality in a sober fashion, neither pretending that easy fixes exist nor ignoring the problem altogether. This will require controlling spending, returning to meaningful budgeting, and fixing problems at the Federal Reserve."

"There is a genuine opportunity for leadership if elected officials have the courage and foresight to do the right thing, both for America’s near-term battle against inflation and its long term economic prospects."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 20:00

FBI Informant Created One Of Largest Nazi Groups In American History

FBI Informant Created One Of Largest Nazi Groups In American History

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

An FBI informant cofounded one of the largest and oldest neo-Nazi organizations in U.S. history: the National Socialist Movement, a group connected to numerous crimes and violent events, including the deadly 2017 Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally, according to previously unpublicized records reviewed by Headline USA.

The documents—a trove of FBI memos, affidavits and court records that this publication has dubbed the “Fed Files”—further indicate that the NSM allegedly had informants in prominent positions throughout much of its nearly 50-year history.

Once known as the “Hollywood Nazis” for its flamboyant demonstrations and crude propaganda, the NSM has also been accused of being co-opted by the FBI in a lawsuit filed by a former member who is now in prison.

Multiple current and former NSM members denied any affiliation with the FBI or law enforcement.

Jeff Schoep / IMAGE: CNN via YouTube

The FBI declined to comment for this story.

NSM’s Founding

The NSM was founded in 1974 by Cliff Herrington and Robert Brannen, both of whom were chief lieutenants of prominent American fascist George Lincoln Rockwell—the founder of the original American Nazi Party in 1959.

By 1976, there was growing suspicion in the Nazi movement that Brannen was working with the FBI.

In fact, the NSM’s own publication, the National Socialist, released an article in April 1976, denying accusations from a rival group—the National Socialist White Peoples Party, or NSWPP—that Brannen was an informant. The National Socialist article called the accusations a “reckless and irresponsible smear attack on Comrade Brennan.”

But the NSWPP was right about Brannen.

An FBI memo warning that undercover informant Robert Brannnen’s cover had been compromised

Commenting on that National Socialist article several months later, a May 1976 FBI memo warned that Brannen’s cover might have been blown.

The redacted memo doesn’t show the informant’s name, but it clearly identifies Brannen by referencing the National Socialist article and the accusations floating around him at the time.

Informant’s photograph and description appeared in the February 1976, NSWPP publication and he was named an FBI informant,” the FBI memo said.

“Informant’s group, the NSM, has publicized a rebuttal, and the Cincinnati Office is taking special precaution to ensure this informant can be operated successfully without jeopardizing his personal safety,” the memo said.

Despite the accusations against Brannen, he continued to lead the NSM undaunted for almost another decade until he suffered several strokes in 1983.

The other cofounder of NSM, Cliff Herrington, denied that his former colleague was ever a federal informant.

“I knew Robert F. Brannen personally. He wasn’t on the take,” Herrington said in an email to this publication.

As an aside, Herrington also confirmed reports that his wife, Andrea Herrington aka Maxine Dietrich, founded a Satanic cult called the Joy of Satan Ministries. The discovery of Herrington’s Satanic leanings is a reason cited by White for why he left the NSM in the mid-2000s.

“Yes! I am married to HP Andrea Herrington nee Dietrich!! Many ivy league critiques have said she was worthy of Master Degrees! Oh, ps SHE & Her Lieutenants are completely right!” Herrington said in a typo-ridden email, which he signed, “Herrington Heil Hitler!”

Herrington led the NSM from the time of Brannen’s major stroke in 1983 until 1994, when he appointed Jeff Schoep to succeed him.

The Jeff Schoep Era

Schoep, who led the NSM from 1994 until shortly after the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally, has also been accused of being an FBI informant.

Unlike Brannen, the allegation against Schoep isn’t clearly corroborated by FBI memos. And the accusation comes from a controversial source: former NSM member Bill White, who is now serving time in prison for multiple felony convictions.

White accused Schoep of being an informant in an 2017 FOIA lawsuit he filed against the FBI from prison, as well as a 2020 court declaration in which he unsuccessfully sought compassionate release. White attached the FBI memo about Brannen to this same court declaration.

In his FOIA lawsuit, White sought records about the NSM, Schoep and a slew of other players he alleged were part of an FBI right-wing entrapment operation.

According to White, the FBI took control of the NSM as early as 2004, and likely much earlier. White said in his FOIA lawsuit that the FBI and ATF “would use the National Socialist Movement to hold phony ‘white supremacist’ rallies.”

“The FBI-JTTF [Joint Terrorism Task Force] would also arrange for violent counterdemonstrations against these rallies through informants in groups such as Anti-Racist Action … The ATF was also using the NSM in a similar fashion,” White said in his FOIA lawsuit.

“Neither party was disclosing that the rallies were fraudulent,” White added. “Instead, the federal government was using the rallies to make it appear as if there was a ‘domestic terrorist threat’ when no such threat existed.”

As for Schoep, White said he believes the former NSM leader was an FBI informant because, among other reasons, Schoep would “frequently lie” when they worked directly together in 2005 to 2006.

“Schoep frequently asked me to go various places to perform tasks that only advantaged the FBI-JTTF operation, either by adding legitimacy to their front groups or to get me away from situations,” White said.

“It is virtually impossible for Schoep not to know that he is acting primarily in the interests of the FBI-JTTF operation, and not in his own interests, if he were a sincere advocate for National Socialism,” White added in his lawsuit, which was ultimately dismissed by a judge for procedural reasons.

In an October 2020 sworn declaration to the court in a separate matter, White provided more details on why he thinks Schoep worked with the feds.

The convicted Nazi cited a heavily redacted FBI memo he obtained via FOIA. The memo said that the FBI interviewed an NSM associate who was in Chicago when law enforcement arrested Matthew Hale—a white nationalist in prison for allegedly soliciting an undercover FBI informant to murder U.S. District Judge Joan Lefkow.

“[Schoep’s] presence in Chicago with Matt Hale at Hale’s arrest make it clear that [the FBI memo is referring to] Schoep,” White said in his sworn declaration, also claiming: “I know from prior releases that Minneapolis Field Division Squad 4 handled Jeff Schoep.”

When presented with White’s records, Schoep admitted to being detained briefly and talking to law enforcement upon Hale’s arrest, but he denied talking to the FBI about Hale or any other topic. He said he spoke to U.S. Marshals when Hale was arrested and he was detained, offering no info.

“I was detained for a couple hours at the most and was being questioned. If the FBI was there, I don’t recall them identifying themselves, I just remember being told it was US Marshals,” he told Headline USA.

They asked why I was in Chicago with Matt, I said he was a friend, and I was there to support him … It was like 20 years ago I don’t remember every stupid question they asked, but I know I didn’t offer them anything more than who I was and why I was there,” he added.

“All my dealing with law enforcement pressure over the years ended in the same manner: very little or nothing to say.”

Schoep, who was reportedly given probation for a felony burglary charge in 1998, also said his home was raided by law enforcement twice—once by federal law enforcement—which he said is further evidence that he was never an informant.

Additionally, Schoep noted that White was an avowed communist before he joined the NSM.

“I took a lot of sh*t from longtime members of the NSM for even allowing Bill to join the group,” he said of White.

“I believed everyone deserved a chance and even with his past history as a communist; I believed he changed his views,” he added. “… Big mistake on my part.”

To Schoep’s point, White hasn’t offered clear-cut proof that Schoep was an FBI informant.

White’s accusations were contested by the Justice Department, and a district court ultimately dismissed his application for compassionate release (his accusations against Schoep were one small part of a 97-page court declaration he submitted in support of his release). White’s FOIA lawsuit implicating Schoep was also unsuccessful.

Headline USA has published a separate story about White’s background, explaining why this publication thinks his allegations are worth reporting.

In any event, Schoep now openly collaborates with the FBI and other law enforcers since disavowing his Nazi lifestyle in the wake of Charlottesville—an apparent change of heart that has drawn much scrutiny in liberal media.

Honored to speak twice at Midwest Police Expo for Illinois #PoliceChiefs Association and FBI,” Schoep tweeted on Aug. 21.

“Thx #FBI for the commemorative coin. Its [sic] ironic, how life has changed. In the past I avoided LE like the plague, today we are on the same side in service to #humanity.”

Honored to speak twice at Midwest Police Expo for Illinois #PoliceChiefs Association and FBI. Thx #FBI for the commemorative coin. Its ironic, how life has changed. In the past I avoided LE like the plague, today we are on the same side in service to #humanity. #CVE #Police #DVE pic.twitter.com/rNopQD8kAG

— Jeff Schoep (@SchoepJeff) August 21, 2023

Schoep has also openly consorted with former FBI informant Jesse Morton, who was an al-Qaeda recruiter in the post-9/11 era until he was arrested in 2011.

Schoep and Morton both participated in a panel about countering violent extremism sponsored by the DHS-funded nonprofit organization Parallel Networks in November 2021, about a month before Morton was found dead in a Florida hotel room.

Despite openly working with law enforcement now, Schoep still bristles at the suggestion that he was an informant in the Nazi movement.

“Outright accusing me of being an informant: Wow,” he said in an email to this publication. “If I was still in the movement, you might have gotten a visit for that accusation—and not a visit from law enforcement.”

Other Feds in the NSM

Assuming that Schoep wasn’t, in fact, an FBI informant, the NSM was nevertheless infiltrated by feds during his leadership tenure.

For example, court proceedings revealed in 2007 that the leader of NSM’s Florida chapter, David Gletty, was an informant.

Gletty had organized a NSM Nazi rally in Orlando in 2006. So when he was outed as an informant over a year later, it sparked an uproar in the local black community.

“That revelation came Wednesday in an unrelated federal court hearing and has prompted outrage from black leaders, some of whom demanded an investigation into whether the February 2006 march was, itself, an event staged by law-enforcement agencies,” the Orlando Sentinel reported at the time.

Gletty later published a memoir titled Undercover Nazi, in which he disclosed that three ATF agents also attended the Orlando rally.

Prison inmate White, who was also attended the Orlando rally, said in his 2020 declaration that he now believes the majority of Nazi demonstrators were informants.

I estimate that about three of the twenty to twenty-five persons who participated were not federal agents: myself, Laura Sennett, aka Isis, and an undercover reporter for a local paper,” White said.

In 2012, another prominent member of the NSM revealed himself as a federal informant. The informant, Brian Holland, had been the NSM’s candidate for U.S. President in 2008.

Holland told his story on the popular radio show Coast to Coast AM, telling host George Knapp about how he infiltrated the white-supremacy movement in 1999.

Holland explained that his job entailed going to neo-Nazi gatherings and reporting on their activities to the FBI. According to Holland, at times he was making up to $8,000 a month.

According to Holland, he was terminated by the FBI without warning and told by the bureau, “Now you don’t exist.”

With the shake of a bureaucratic hand, the third highest-ranking neo-Nazi in the country was put to pasture after 11 years of risking my life,” he said.

NSM is currently commanded by Burt Colucci, who told Headline USA that he, too, was asked to be an informant.

Colucci said he turned down the FBI’s offer.

“The FBI likes to play games no matter what side of this you’re on. They actually came to me and told me they could ‘supplement my income,’ offering me—they didn’t specify what exactly they meant or or how much, but they said they’d supplement my income,” he said.

“I told them I don’t want anything to do with them and to talk to my lawyers, so they did—they talked to my Arizona lawyer at the time,” he said, adding, “I would have personally told them to f*ck off and keep their money, but my lawyer’s like, ‘Let me tell them. I’ll say it a little bit nicer for you.’”

But Colluci, who deleted Schoep’s NSM email accounts after taking control of the group, said he isn’t concerned whether his former leader was an informant.

“All of these people are long gone, whether informants at the time or not,” he said.

Meanwhile, a jury ruled in November 2021 that the NSM owes $1 million for its actions at Charlottesville in 2017, while Schoep owes $500,000.

Schoep has an appeal pending in that case.

Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 20:20

NY Man Arrested With $1.6 Million In Fentanyl Fails To Show For Court After Being Granted Non-Cash Bail

NY Man Arrested With $1.6 Million In Fentanyl Fails To Show For Court After Being Granted Non-Cash Bail

If we told you that a man accused of carrying $1.6 million in fentanyl in Pittsburgh didn't show up for his court date after being released on non-cash bail earlier this month, would you be surprised?

Us neither.

But that was precisely the case in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, where 27 year old Carlos Pichardo Cepeda failed the appear for court. The New Yorker "is accused of carrying hundreds of thousands of fentanyl doses at a Pittsburgh bus station," according to Triblive.com.

Pichardo Cepeda was previously handed a nonmonetary bond by a district judge and released after his arrest. This past Tuesday was his second court date that he missed, the report says. Republicans are blaming the cashless bail while Democrats are placing blame on the DA's office dragging its feet in prosecuting the case. 

Pichardo Cepeda was arrested August 31 at the Greyhound Terminal in Downtown Pittsburgh. He had 9 kilograms, or about 450,000 doses, of fentanyl on him with a street value of $1.6 billion.

His criminal history included seven prior arrests, two misdemeanor convictions and pending cases in New York for grand larceny and sexual assault.

Two district judges involved in his case, Xander Orenstein and Gene Ricciardi, stand on opposite ends of the political aisle, the report says. Orenstein granted him a nonmonetary bond but imposed electronic monitoring. 

But such monitors can only be ordered by a Common Pleas Court judge. The arrested are usually held in jail until such cases can be transferred. That's where Judge Ricciardi came in, according to the report:

In the Pichardo Cepeda case, Orenstein believed the suspect would be held in jail until a decision about electronic monitoring was made, Asturi said.

Orenstein set the nonmonetary bail on Sept. 1. The next day, Allegheny County Jail staff approached District Judge Gene Ricciardi, who was presiding that day, for clarification of the bail condition, according to Asturi.

Asturi said Ricciardi then contacted Orenstein and received permission to review the electronic monitoring condition. Ricciardi then removed the electronic monitoring condition because district judges can’t impose it, and Pichardo Cepeda was released.

Ricciardi did not read the criminal complaint and did not know the facts of the case at the time of release, Asturi said.

Joe Asturi, a spokesman for the court system, offered the following perfunctory take: “Court administration is reviewing procedures to provide safeguards to prevent another such occurrence.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 20:40

Pennsylvania Rolls Out Automatic Voter Registration

Pennsylvania Rolls Out Automatic Voter Registration

Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

When getting a driver’s license or official state identification card in Pennsylvania, anyone eligible to vote will now be automatically registered.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks at an event hosted by the state Department of Drug and Alcohol Programs to kick off National Recovery Month in Harrisburg, Pa., on Sept. 6, 2023. (Commonwealth Media Services)

Gov. Josh Shapiro announced on Sept. 19 that Pennsylvania has implemented automatic voter registration (AVR) at Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) driver and photo license centers, starting on the day of the announcement.

With this move, Pennsylvania joins 23 states with AVR. They are Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Nevada, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia, plus the District of Columbia.

Pennsylvania residents seeking new or renewed driver's licenses and ID cards will be automatically taken through the voter registration application process, if they are eligible to vote, unless they opt out of doing so.

It is a change from voters opting into the voter registration process. Previously, employees at license centers asked people if they would like to register to vote.

The change also adds voter registration instructions in five more languages, for a total of 31 languages, a statement from Mr. Shapiro’s office said.

Pennsylvania is the birthplace of our democracy, and as Governor, I’m committed to ensuring free and fair elections that allow every eligible voter to make their voice heard,” Mr. Shapiro said in a statement.

“Automatic voter registration is a commonsense step to ensure election security and save Pennsylvanians time and tax dollars. Residents of our Commonwealth already provide proof of identity, residency, age, and citizenship at the DMV—all the information required to register to vote—so it makes good sense to streamline that process with voter registration.”

Longtime Voter Registration Site

Since the 1993 passage of the National Voter Registration Act, which includes the motor voter law, Pennsylvanians have been able to apply to register to vote during these visits at PennDOT centers.

“Registering eligible Commonwealth residents to vote during their visits to driver and photo license centers is a commonsense action,” Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt said in the statement. “The voter is already in a state government facility with their identification documentation in hand, and they will have their picture taken and sign their name electronically. Having all of that happen at the same time means the verification process is extremely secure and makes the registration process more efficient.”

According to the statement from the governor’s office, “Multiple studies—including a 2019 Brennan Center for Justice study and a 2021 study by the Public Policy Institute of California—have also found that automatic voter registration in other states has produced marked increases in the number of eligible voters added to the voter rolls and has produced appreciable increases in voter turnout.”

As of December 2022, roughly 8.7 million Pennsylvanians were registered to vote. According to U.S. Census estimates, more than 10.3 million Commonwealth residents are eligible to register, the statement said.

To be eligible to register to vote, applicants must 1) be a U.S. citizen for at least 30 days before the next election; 2) be a resident of Pennsylvania and their election district for at least 30 days before the next election; and 3) be at least 18 years old on the date of the next election.

The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) lists some pros and cons to AVR on its website.

One positive is that automatic registration can help with voter registration list maintenance because the process updates existing registrations with current addresses. Precise voter rolls facilitate election accuracy and reduce the use of provisional ballots, which are used when there is a discrepancy in a voter’s registration status.

Some supporters also say automatic voter registration leads to higher voter turnout, although evidence supporting this claim is mixed,” the NCSL website says, then goes on to mention disadvantages of AVR.

Opponents of automatic voter registration may say that the government should not tell citizens they must register to vote, particularly in states that provide the ‘opt-out’ choice by mail, after the fact. Furthermore, they question whether opt-out forms that are sent and received through the mail are sufficient to ensure an individual can decline to register.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 21:00

Where Gas Is Cheapest & Most Expensive In The US

Where Gas Is Cheapest & Most Expensive In The US

The price of gasoline in the United States is climbing once more as production hit a summer low while major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia cut their output.

As of September 21, the AAA gas pices overview put the price of a gallon of regular at $3.87 in the U.S. on average - the highest ever for this time of year.

That price is still way below the new all-time high recorded on June 14, 2022 ($5.02), however.

However, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes, gas prices also vary widely across the United States.

Infographic: U.S. Gas Prices on the Rise Again | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

State-specific costs for transportation and distribution can drive up prices, like in the case of Alaska and Hawaii. State taxes also vary greatly, for example explaining the high price of gasoline in California.

But states that usually offer cheap gas are also feeling the price crunch right now. According to AAA, the gallon now costs upwards of $3.50 in all but nine states.

Only in parts of the Southern United States and Texas, the gallon is still priced below that. Among those shelling out most for gas at the moment are residents of Washington, Nevada and California.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 21:20

Who Could Have Seen This Coming? All Over America, Blue Cities Are Facing A Severe Shortage Of Police Officers

Who Could Have Seen This Coming? All Over America, Blue Cities Are Facing A Severe Shortage Of Police Officers

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

It turns out that we really do need the police after all.  Do you remember a few years ago when blue cities all over the nation wanted to defund the police?  Needless to say, that didn’t work out too well.  Wherever police budgets were slashed, crime rates shot up.  Today, we are in the midst of a massive crime wave that is sweeping the country.  In fact, it has gotten so bad that even many our most liberal politicians are desperate to restore law and order.  But that won’t be so easy, because after everything that has transpired blue cities are discovering that they are having a really difficult time finding enough warm bodies to serve in their crime-ridden communities.

Just look at what is happening in Minneapolis.  Since the death of George Floyd, the number of officers serving in the MPD has fallen by about 35 percent

The Minneapolis Police Department is experiencing historically low staffing shortages, with ranks down approximately 35% since the death of George Floyd in 2020.

According to a June report from the Department of Justice, the MPD had 892 sworn officers in 2018, but that number has since dropped to just 585. An officer told the DOJ that the police department’s morale “is at an all-time low.”

Once upon a time, Minneapolis was one of the most beautiful cities in the country.

But now it is a crime-infested hellhole, and at this point the city “has one of the lowest ratios of police officers to population” in the entire nation…

Some days, the department has only four officers working a given precinct, the outlet reported. The MPD is often so understaffed that it does not have anyone available to work the station’s front desk.

Minneapolis has one of the lowest ratios of police officers to population, with 1.4 officers per 1,000 residents, while the national average is 2.4.

Similar things could be said about San Francisco.

The “City by the Bay” is one of the epicenters of our rapidly growing national drug crisis, and they are having such a hard time finding police officers that they have decided to start recruiting in Texas

San Francisco is trying to recruit cops from Texas as it faces a shortage of officers, after businessman Marc Benioff slammed the city’s homeless and drug problems.

The San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) is visiting four Texas university campuses throughout the month as part of a new recruitment drive.

Candidates from outside of the state of California will take a written test, a physical ability test and an interview to see if they make they cut.

Yes, things have really gotten this bad.

Blue cities are having such difficulty hiring police officers that they must try to recruit them from red states.

This month, the SFPD will be making recruiting trips to four different Texas universities

  • Texas Southern University in Houston;

  • Sam Houston State University in Huntsville;

  • Prairie View A&M University; and

  • Texas A&M University Corpus Christi.

If you always dreamed of serving as a police officer in a lawless city with hordes of drug addicts, this is your chance.

In Prince George’s County just outside of Washington D.C., authorities have decided to search for hundreds of new recruits in Puerto Rico because the shortage of police officers has become so severe…

Officer shortages are so dire in the Washington, D.C., area that one county police department is planning to send officials to Puerto Rico in an attempt to bring back hundreds of new recruits, the department announced Monday.

Law enforcement officials in Maryland’s Prince George’s County, which borders D.C., told the city’s Fox affiliate that they plan to travel to the Caribbean island “soon” in an attempt to hire the roughly 350 officers they need to achieve a full staff. In addition to the tropical recruitment trip, the county’s police department is targeting Hispanic communities at parades and other events across the country and running ads in Spanish.

At least they are still trying.

Other communities seem to have given up completely.

In Seattle, citizens are being instructed to “give up their car keys” and to give criminals “whatever they’re looking for” when they inevitably encounter violent thugs…

The best thing to do if you are ever confronted by criminals while in Seattle is to simply give them “whatever they’re looking for,” according to King County Sheriff David Robinson.

Instead of trying to fight criminals when they attempt to, say, steal your car, Robinson suggests that residents and visitors of Seattle “give up their car keys” and avoid provoking these robbers and thieves.

“Give the criminals what they want,” Robinson told Seattleites about how to live in their city, which is currently facing the highest violent crime rate in 15 years.

I have been to downtown Seattle, and I don’t plan on going back any time soon.

Of course these days you can literally be robbed anywhere.

On Sunday, a wealthy man in Connecticut was actually carjacked inside his own garage

A Connecticut man pulled his Aston Martin convertible into his garage Sunday and encountered two masked men who attacked him and stole the vehicle in a brazen broad daylight carjacking captured on home security video.

“Get out, get out,” a masked man can be heard telling the victim as he sits in his own Bayberry Lane garage in an exchange captured by a Ring camera in the corner of the room.

A second man opens the passenger door and then rifles around inside another luxury car parked to the side.

Driving an expensive vehicle can be fun.

But in our current social environment, it makes you a target.

It appears that those two criminals followed that man home.

Sadly, this sort of crime is rapidly rising all over the nation.

So from this point forward, make sure that nobody is following you when you are headed back to where you live.

If you do suspect that you are being followed, pull into a gas station, but don’t get out.

Circle around and watch to see if the vehicle that was potentially tailing you follows suit.  If you are still being followed at that point, call the police and head toward the nearest police station.  Only really stupid criminals will follow you there.

I wish that we did not have to constantly be on guard like this, but it is imperative to understand that our society has been fundamentally transformed.

Lawlessness reigns in major cities all over the United States, and I fully expect violent crime to get even worse during the years ahead of us.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 21:40

Can You Spot The Difference? 

Can You Spot The Difference? 

McDonald's advertising efforts portray its promotion of family values in Japan, whereas, in the West, it subverts society with 'woke' propaganda. 

X account End Wokeness first pointed out McDonald's advertisements in a post titled "McDonald's Japan vs McDonald's USA. Try and spot the difference" on Thursday. The cholesterol-laden fast-food chain appears to embrace sanity in Japan while promoting woke insanity in the US. 

McDonald’s Japan vs McDonald’s USA. Try and spot the difference. pic.twitter.com/yUD1pTIa5K

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 22, 2023

Let's begin with the Japanese ad. McDonald's understands Japan doesn't tolerate mental illness and instead embraces family traditions. After all, Japan is in the middle of a demographic winter. 

特別じゃない、しあわせな時間。 pic.twitter.com/P7Og6hbMsx

— マクドナルド (@McDonaldsJapan) September 20, 2023

In the West, McDonald's has seized the opportunity to boost its Diversity and Inclusive Index score to the moon by out-woking all other burger joints with this ridiculous ad, "Black trans women have a very simple message: stop killing us." This is DEI at work and a small minority imposing their ideals and beliefs on the vast majority. Very few in the majority want to hear about what this morbidly obese black trans woman says while chowing down on a cholesterol-laden burger. 

“Black trans women have a very simple message: stop killing us” - @imarajoneshttps://t.co/KLsZbLzH7i pic.twitter.com/F7IGLPlAK4

— McDonald's (@McDonalds) June 29, 2020

Hundreds of X users reacted to End Wokeness' post, with many expressing disbelief at the stark contrast in advertising between countries. 

My take:https://t.co/DuO1VEXwCj

— Jonathan Wong (@WGthink) September 22, 2023

I won't be eating McDonald’s anymore.

— Freddy (@FreddyDEFI) September 22, 2023

Good to see some places in the world aren’t taken over by this ideology

— Rob Coates 🇺🇸 (@LuckyHippie926) September 22, 2023

pic.twitter.com/Sd2ryjnRJX

— Stephen Lloyd (@apparentlysteve) September 22, 2023

We must point out the black trans ad debuted in 2020, and since then, McDonald's has scrubbed its website of the now-controversial acronym ESG, which represents environmental, social, and corporate governance principles. 

If consumers don't like McDonald's woke propaganda, maybe it's time to ditch the pink slime for healthier options, such as buying food from local farms and small businesses. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 22:00

Cancers Appearing In Ways Never Before Seen After COVID Vaccinations: Dr. Harvey Risch

Cancers Appearing In Ways Never Before Seen After COVID Vaccinations: Dr. Harvey Risch

Authored by  Efthymis Oraiopoulos and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

There is evidence that cancers are occurring in excess after people receive COVID-19 vaccinations, according to Dr. Harvey Risch.

Dr. Harvey Risch, professor emeritus of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, in New York on July 7, 2022. (Bao Qiu/The Epoch Times)

Dr. Risch is professor emeritus of epidemiology in the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Yale School of Public Health and Yale School of Medicine. His research has focused extensively on the causes of cancer as well as prevention and early diagnosis.

In an interview for EpochTV’s "American Thought Leaders," Dr. Risch said patients must now wait months, not weeks, to get an appointment at an oncology clinic in New York.

here is difficulty in observing whether a vaccine can cause cancer, because cancer usually takes time to develop, Dr. Risch said. It can take anywhere from two years to 30 years, depending on the different types of cancer, from leukemia to colon cancer.

What clinicians have been seeing,” said Dr. Risch, “is very strange things: For example, 25-year-olds with colon cancer, who don't have family histories of the disease—that's basically impossible along the known paradigm for how colon cancer works—and other long-latency cancers that they're seeing in very young people."

He said this is not how cancer normally develops.

"There has to be some initiating stimulus to why this happens," he said.

Fighting Cancer

Dr. Risch said that in his opinion, cancer is something a healthy human body can fight and disable, as the non-normal cancerous cells are gobbled up when detected in a body with a functional immune system. If the immune system is compromised, however, it cannot cope with the task of neutralizing cancerous cells, and cancerous cells are left to multiply and grow, leading to symptoms of cancer.

“That’s the mechanism I think is most likely here,” Dr. Risch said. “We know that the COVID vaccines have done various degrees of damage to the immune system in a fraction of people who have taken them.”

That damage could translate to getting COVID more often, getting other infectious diseases, or getting cancer.

Another example Dr. Risch gave was breast cancer, which normally, if there is a remanifestation after surgical removal, the remanifestation occurs after two decades. However, vaccinated women are now seen to remanifest breast cancers in much shorter periods of time.

“Those are the initial signals that we’ve been seeing, and because these cancers have been occurring to people who were too young to get them, basically, compared to the normal way it works, they’ve been designated as turbo cancers,” Dr. Risch said.

“Some of these cancers are so aggressive that between the time that they're first seen and when they come back for treatment after a few weeks, they've grown dramatically compared to what oncologists would have expected for the way cancer normally progresses,” he added.

“Be attuned to your body,” Dr. Risch recommended, for noticing any new signals the body might give.

Adverse Events After Vaccination

Dr. Risch also talked about the aspect of official medical agencies not recognizing someone as being vaccinated inside the first two weeks of vaccination. This happens, he said, because the medical agencies say that the effects of the vaccine need two weeks to start manifesting. Adverse effects occurring a few days after vaccinations were officially counted as health conditions manifesting in unvaccinated people, he said.

However, serious adverse events after receiving the vaccine have occurred within the first four days, Dr. Risch said. He said three-quarters of adverse effects are being recorded as happening to unvaccinated people.

The decision makers who were in charge during the pandemic "threw out the principles of public health six days into the pandemic and did the opposite of everything that we knew should be done for respiratory viruses," he said.

One example was the denial of effective early treatment and unnecessary vaccinations, which show a “colossal failure of public health through this period," he said.

Dr. Risch said that a lot of people are now less likely to be “propagandized” regarding COVID, and that news reports about a new variant that is going to take over the world in the next month are “propaganda to sell the next batch of vaccines coming out in a few weeks.”

People are fed up with this and it’s going to be a lot more pushback,” he said.

Risks to Society

Dr. Risch said that while the individual risk of an adverse reaction to the vaccine is relatively low, once that risk manifests itself at a greater scale, when millions of people have received the vaccine, the result is that hundreds of thousands of people are left with injuries and serious adverse events that are often worse than the virus itself.

Dr. Risch’s opinion is that nobody should get vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine, as the new variants are mild and not life threatening. He has heard of a few hospitalizations that lasted for some days, but as most people had COVID in the past, they have some immunity to these new variants as well.

"There is no reason for people to be vaccinated now, to any degree," he said.

He said COVID has become an illness similar to the flu in its degree of severity, and that propaganda to scare people is being pushed by the government on behalf of pharmaceutical companies to sell more vaccines.

“We live in social contact with each other and therefore spread low-level infections. This is part of human life that we take for granted and we try to treat it the best we can," he said. "That’s how we should be managing this."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 22:20

Minnesota Murder Suspect Accidentally Freed From Jail 2 Days After Arrest

Minnesota Murder Suspect Accidentally Freed From Jail 2 Days After Arrest

Today in "your tax dollars at work" news, a suspect charged with murder in Minnesota has been released from jail due to a "clerical error", just two days after he was arrested.

28 year old Kevin Mason was recently arrested in Indiana on a murder warrant after a two year manhunt. Then, he was promptly mistakenly released from jail, NBC News wrote this week

Now, authorities are on the hunt for him in Indiana again. They have kept his accidental release quiet for six days, supposedly to gain a "tactical advantage" over him, the article says. 

Colonel James Martin with the Marion County Sheriff’s Office described his arrest warrants: "One being for homicide, one being for a parole violation, and the other being for a firearms possession."

Mason was charged with second degree murder "in connection with a shooting in June 2021 in the parking lot of the Shiloh Temple in Minneapolis that killed Dontevius Ahmad Catchings," the report says. 

Martin said this week: "On Sept. 12 one of our inmate records clerks thought she was correcting different bookings for Mr. Mason. She removed two of the holds leaving one additional hold for Mr. Mason. The next day on Sept. 13, Ramsey County, out of Minnesota, lifted the last and final hold that we had booked on for Mr. Mason."

"Our clerk that was reviewing it sees three Minnesota holds, didn’t realize what she was doing obviously. It's a critical error, critical mistake. They’re identified very specifically by the originating agency that did it. They have a specific ID number, they’re all different and the case numbers are all different," Martin added.

Ramsey County lifted their hold on Mason as a result of the error, freeing him.

Martin said: "This was an error. This should have not happened. Mason should not have been release from out custody. This was discovered shortly after he was released."

Since then, authorities have been engaged in an "around the clock" manhunt. They suspect he is in Indianapolis and that people are actively helping him evade arrest.

"I also want to assure the public we will not rest until he’s captured," Martin concluded.

Well, that makes us feel better...

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 22:40

Xi, Assad Launch China-Syria Strategic Partnership Based On Belt & Road Initiative

Xi, Assad Launch China-Syria Strategic Partnership Based On Belt & Road Initiative

Via The Cradle,

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on Friday announced the launch of the China-Syria strategic partnership during a meeting in the eastern city of Hangzhou.

"Today, we will jointly announce the establishment of the China-Syria strategic partnership, which will become an important milestone in the history of bilateral relations," Xi told Assad.

Via Reuters

"Faced with an international situation full of instability and uncertainty, China is willing to continue to work together with Syria, firmly support each other, promote friendly cooperation, and jointly defend international fairness and justice," he added.

For his part, Assad expressed his "happiness" at being invited to China, a country he says "stands with the just causes of the peoples … which form the basis of Chinese policy in international forums and which are based on the independence of countries, respect for the will of the people, and rejection of terrorism."

It seems China is willing to send a message to the West, given the enthusiastic red carpet reception of Assad to the airport on Thursday, complete with military parade and welcome ceremonies...

مشاهد الاستقبال الرسمي لوصول الرئيس #بشار_الأسد والسيدة الأولى #أسماء_الأسد إلى مطار خانجو الدولي. pic.twitter.com/4hPQ9MKdtF

— Syrian Presidency (@Presidency_Sy) September 21, 2023

"This visit is important in its timing and circumstances, as a multipolar world is being formed that will restore balance and stability to the world," Assad continued.

"It is the duty of all of us to seize this moment for the sake of a bright and promising future, and I hope that our meeting today will establish broad and long-term strategic cooperation in various fields," the Syrian leader, who is under US sanctions said.

The two presidents also oversaw the signing of three cooperation agreements in the fields of economic cooperation and development, as well as a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) "on the common context of a cooperation plan within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)."

President Assad in China today. pic.twitter.com/v6x2IxY806

— SAM 🇸🇾 (@SAMSyria0) September 22, 2023

Assad arrived in China on Thursday, leading a high-level political and diplomatic delegation in his first official visit to the Asian giant in nearly 20 years. Following his arrival, the Chinese foreign ministry said his visit would take China-Syria ties to a "new level."

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 23:00

F-35 Stealth Fighter Only Mission Capable About Half The Time, Government Report Finds

F-35 Stealth Fighter Only Mission Capable About Half The Time, Government Report Finds

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

A new government report has found that U.S. F-35 fighter jets are only ready for a mission about half of the time, with the remaining time spent awaiting maintenance.

On Thursday, the the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report (pdf) which concluded that the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, was only mission capable about 50 percent of the time for the A and B variants and 57 percent for the C variant of the fighter. These mission capability rates, the GAO report states, are "far below program goals" of 90 percent for the F-35A variant and 85 for the B and C variants.

The F-35—which is operated by the U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps, as well as a host of U.S. allies—is one of the most advanced systems in Western arsenals. The 5th Generation fighter jet is made with an array of special radar-absorbent materials and other "stealth" features. The multirole fighter jet boasts capabilities for a range of different mission types, and the F-35B variant operated by the Marine Corps has unique short take-off and vertical landing capabilities.

The F-35 is also one of the most expensive systems in Western arsenals. The U.S. Department of Defense has estimated the F-35 program will cost the department about $1.7 trillion over its life cycle. A majority of this estimated lifetime cost, $1.3 trillion, is expected to go toward maintenance. The GAO said it conducted this latest sustainment study of the F-35 in part because of this high program cost.

Contributing to this low mission capability rate, the GAO report concluded the F-35 program is heavily reliant on contractors for maintenance work and the DOD has been slow to take over the program's responsibilities.

The GAO report said the DOD is still working to determine the right balance of government and outside contractor roles to sustain the F-35 program going forward. The DOD also lacks both the technical data and training to support its desired program sustainment model.

While the GAO report identifies challenges with the F-35 program, it also describes an opportunity to overhaul the program to both bring down costs and improve the maintenance process that drags on it.

"The military services must take over management of F35 sustainment by October 2027 and have an opportunity to make adjustments—specifically to the contractor-managed elements," the report states. "Reassessing its approach could help DOD address its maintenance challenges and reduce costs."

Repairs Department on Secretive Spare Parts List

The new GAO report derived its conclusions about the F-35 program over the course of visits to two military F-35 depots and three military installations that host F-35 squadrons. A recurring problem for military aircraft maintainers at these depots and installations have limited information about the spare parts needed to keep their aircraft running.

The list of parts for the F-35 program is maintained in a database that is proprietary to the program's prime contractor, Lockheed Martin Corporation. With all this proprietary information, the military has to outsource much of its maintenance to Lockheed Martin and its subcontractors.

Not having ready access to part numbers hinders the repair of the aircraft because it delays the ordering and receipt of needed parts," the GAO report states. "Maintainers at one installation we visited told us that they would not need contractors on the flight line if they simply had access to part numbers. However, since access to part numbers is an issue that can affect readiness of the aircraft, units and squadrons need contractors on a daily basis."

As of March 2023, the F-35 program had a backlog of over 10,000 F-35 parts in need of repair.

In a press statement to NTD News, Lockheed Martin spokesperson Jacqueline Lorenzetti said the corporation provides "all data required under its F-35 government contracts and is committed to providing data required for the Department of Defense to sustain the aircraft under applicable sustainment contracts."

Ms. Lorenzetti said the U.S. government has unlimited access to all Operation, Maintenance, Installation, and Training (OMIT) data for the aircraft. She also said 90 percent of parts in the F-35 program are performing better than expected and the average time that parts remain on F-35 aircraft before failure is more than twice that of a typical 4th Generation fighter jet.

The GAO report provided a list of recommendations, advising the military to assess whether they or private contractors will take primary responsibility for various components of the F-35 program, as well as what resources and proprietary information the Department of the Air Force and Department of the Navy will require for these revised responsibilities.

Ms. Lorenzetti said Lockheed Martin is partnering with the government to increase repair capacity for the F-35 fleet.

"We stand ready to partner with the government as plans are created for the future of F-35 sustainment ensuring mission readiness and enabling deterrence," Ms. Lorenzetti said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 23:20

Governments Start Calling For Price Controls, Rationing & CBDCs Come Next

Governments Start Calling For Price Controls, Rationing & CBDCs Come Next

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

Last month in the middle of the surreal “Bidenomics” hype I published an article titled ‘Nothing Is Over: Inflation Is About To Come Back With A Vengeance.’  I outlined the misconceptions surrounding CPI and how it is not an accurate model for the effects of inflation.  I also noted that the index had been manipulated downwards by Joe Biden as he flooded the market with oil from the strategic reserves.  Because so many elements of the CPI are connected to energy, Biden had created an artificial drop in CPI using this strategy.

I argued that as the strategic reserves ran out and Biden lost his leverage, CPI would rise again and prices on a number of necessities would climb.  This is happening now, with the biggest jump in CPI in 14 months and gas prices clawing back towards all-time highs.

Inflation is not going away anytime soon, but the bigger issue at hand is who benefits most from inflation and rising prices? The answer might be obvious to some but many people are oblivious to the root cause of inflationary dysfunction and often see it as a consequence of random economic chaos rather than a product of clever engineering. The truth is, banking oligarchs and political authorities revel in the inflationary tidal wave because it is a perfect opportunity to institute far reaching socialist controls over resources.

In most cases central bankers are the primary culprits behind the creation of an inflationary event, and the word “creation” best applies because it is nearly impossible for overt inflation to occur without them. While money supply is not the only factor when dealing with inflation (sorry purists, but there are indeed other causes), it is the most important. More money chasing less resources triggers supply-side instability and prices go up. Central banks have a number of excuses as to why they “need” to conjure up more dollars or pesos or pounds or marks, but there is no doubt that they know what the ultimate end result will be.

It’s happened too many times for them not to know…

These inflation events trigger a predictable set of dominoes in society as well as in economy and finance. Price spikes, diminished savings, rising poverty, rising crime, and rising interest rates – This is then followed in most cases by failed rate hikes, more inflation, then more hikes, diminishing foreign investment in debt, foreign currency dumps (causing more inflation), plunging consumer spending and job losses.

This same pattern has been witnessed from 1920s Weimar Germany to 1970s America to 1990s Yugoslavia to 2000s Argentina and Venezuela and beyond. But what happens next? In each case the trend leads first to price controls on producers and distributors, which ultimately fail. Then comes government rationing and the complete takeover of necessities including the food supply.

Think it can’t happen in the US? It already has. In 1971 Richard Nixon issued Executive Order 11615, (under the Economic Stabilization Act which was established in 1970); the order demanded a 90 day freeze on wages and prices in order to counter inflation. It was an exceedingly rare action outside of a world war and conveniently took place during the election cycle. Keep in mind, the real inflationary crisis had not happened yet, but the price controls gave markets a short term boost and gave Nixon an election win.

In 1973, controls returned during the Arab Oil Embargo. They failed and resulted in long term gas price inflation. Gerald Ford then called for American businesses to institute price controls under his “Whip Inflation Now” campaign; it was the subject of ridicule and was even made fun of by a young Joe Biden (who now falsely claims to have solved his own inflation problem with his useless Inflation Reduction Act).

Finally, Jimmy Carter introduced price and wage “guidelines” (controls) which rewarded businesses that raised prices below a set percentage. Any businesses that raised prices above the percentage and made a pre-tax profit above the previous two years would be penalized. In no case could a firm increase its dollar profit by more than 6.5 percent unless the excess was attributable to increased unit sales volume. This plan, of course, also failed to stop inflation.

Ultimately, the Fed had to jack rates up to around 20% in 1980-1981 to stop exponential inflation, which led to considerable business losses and high unemployment.

The problem is simple, price controls lead to lost profit incentive which leads to less production. Less production leads to less supply and less supply leads to rising prices. This is on top of the root cancer that is fiat money creation. Politicians will rarely if ever address the actual cause of an inflationary crisis:  The government and the central banks. Instead, they try to blame free markets, “greedy” businesses and profit taking in times of distress.

Sadly, the pattern is repeating again today as it is now becoming clear to the public that central bank interest rate hikes are not having a significant effect and the public is still paying between 25%-50% more on the majority of goods they purchase compared to three years ago. As inflation grinds forward, multiple leftist governments are now openly discussing price controls.

Recently, Canada’s Justin Trudeau ordered top grocery chains in the country to cut prices while admonishing them for making higher profits, insinuating that they are the cause of inflation.  In Canada, profit margins among grocers are actually flat due to rising costs. If one looks only at raw profits without taking into account inflation in producer costs as well as transportation, distribution and wages, then it might look like these companies are pulling in the cash. There is zero evidence to support this claim.

What Trudeau is doing is pretending to be stupid while engaging in a very clever strategy of scapegoating. It’s the government and the central bankers that are the foundational cause of inflation, but by blaming individual business sectors he sets the stage for government enforced price controls. When these fail and create a crisis in supply he will then introduce rationing, and once the government has conditioned the public to accept rationing the elites then control the entire population’s access to food and necessities.

Some people may say “Well that’s Canada, what about the US?” The same agenda is in progress in America, but is being pursued at a city and state level. For example, the socialist Mayor of Chicago, Brandon Johnson, just announced a plan for the city (using state and federal tax funds) to build government run grocery stores in “food deserts.” These are places where a combination of inflation and shoplifting has forced grocers to leave certain areas of the city.

The Chicago program would include price control measures and there’s ample opportunity for these institutions to use rationing in the future. Similar projects are also being considered in other cities across the country. In other words, leftist cities are scaring away businesses while planning to replace “essential services” with government run operations.

I wrote about the inevitability of government rationing after price controls last year in my article ‘The Stagflation Trap Will Lead To Universal Basic Income And Food Rationing.’  Rationing generally comes when price controls fail. It’s been a long time since the US has faced these kinds of conditions but we are likely to in the near future. This time around, I believe that if the establishment is given rationing power they will never let go again.

Rationing could also be used to lure the public into accepting Universal Basic Income (UBI) and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).  Government run food centers can easily restrict purchases of goods to a limited list of items, and also demand payment using specific methods (like digital currencies).  In a short period of time, cash would be removed because retailers, pressured by government, will refuse to accept it.

It’s hard to say what the future will bring in terms of politics, given that the next presidential campaign is looking like a complete circus. Historically speaking, though, both Democrat and Republican presidents have tried price controls in the past. Public pressure must be applied (at the state level at minimum) to stop this from happening. As convenient as it might seem to blame producers and distributors, the real threat is coming from governments and banks. We cannot let the people who caused the crisis also benefit from it by giving them even more power.

* * *

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Tyler Durden Fri, 09/22/2023 - 23:40

The Coming Ukraine Collapse & The "Rebuilding" Headfake

The Coming Ukraine Collapse & The "Rebuilding" Headfake

Authored by Yves Smith via NakedCapitalism.com,

Marguerite Yourcenar salvaged one of the finest lines in all literature from the first version of her masterpiece Memoirs of Hadrian: “I begin to discern the profile of my death.” We are approaching that point with Ukraine, not just its military campaign, but also its economy. That baked-in collapse has been camouflaged by the bizarre pretense that there will be a huge reconstruction push, even more absurdly, funded by private sector interests. One has to think that the “rebuilding” patter is part of the cover for the fact that Project Ukraine is a lost cause.

At the end of this post, we are embedding a chapter on the devastation in Russia in the 1990s to give an idea of what the downside in Ukraine might look like. Recall that even though the USSR had suffered from underinvestment in many sectors, it still had ample resources and considerable manufacturing capacity. It did not, as Ukraine has, suffer from considerable infrastructure destruction, a fall in its population to half its former level, through flight, annexation, and death in the war, and the loss of some of its most economically developed areas.

The war is now entering a critical phase, with experts now warning of a breakdown of the Ukraine military in the not-terribly-distant future or using formulations that amount to the same thing. Scott Ritter had predicted that outcome for late summer-fall based on Ukraine’s dwindling missiles supplies, but that horizon has been extended by the US supply of cluster munitions, whose use is considered a war crime by many countries.

An indicator of the increased willingness to admit the inevitable military disintegration was coming is the early September article, How Ukraine’s Heroic Stand Against Russia Could Collapse Into Failure by Daniel Davis in 19FortyFive. Some parts of the press are admitting that the much-ballyhooed counteroffensive has failed; others are following official messaging via the revisionist history of claiming it had limited objectives and holding out the laughably false hope that Ukraine might still puncture Russian fortified defense lines and reach Tokmak before the fall mud season starts.

Seymour Hersh’s latest newsletter depicted both Biden and Zelensky as dug in on continuing the war without mentioning that Banderite guns at the back of Zelensky’s head mean he cannot act otherwise even if he wanted to. But as the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. And there is a noteworthy failure of wishes to translate into improved capabilities. From Hersh:

There are significant elements in the American intelligence community, relying on field reports and technical intelligence, who believe that the demoralized Ukraine army has given up on the possibility of overcoming the heavily mined three-tier Russian defense lines and taking the war to Crimea and the four oblasts seized and annexed by Russia. The reality is that Volodymyr Zelensky’s battered army no longer has any chance of a victory….

“There were some early Ukrainian penetrations in the opening days of the June offensive,” the official [ with access to current intelligence] said, “at or near” the heavily trapped first of Russia’s three formidable concrete barriers of defense, “and the Russians retreated to sucker them in. And they all got killed.” After weeks of high casualties and little progress, along with horrific losses to tanks and armored vehicles, he said, major elements of the Ukrainian army, without declaring so, virtually canceled the offensive. The two villages that the Ukrainian army recently claimed as captured “are so tiny that they couldn’t fit between two Burma-Shave signs”—referring to billboards that seemed to be on every American highway after World War II….

“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”

This outcome is not a surprise to anyone who has ventured outside mainstream reporting to find sources that have been paying attention to what is happening on the battlefield and with weapons supplies. Russia was outproducing the entire Collective West in artillery when the war began, and if anything, that gap has widened. Russia also has the advantage in missile production, has substantially increased drone output, and already had the most advanced air defense systems. The West despite handwaves has done little to increase capacity.

Worse, Russia burning the hodge-podge of supposedly game-changing Western tanks and armored vehicles had been both so embarrassing and effective that Ukraine has been reduced to moving men on foot to assault Russia positions, resulting in predictably horrific loss rates. Alexander Mercouris has correctly called the results a killing field.

As the offensive has quietly slowed down, Ukraine’s support is also breaking down. Even if resolve had held, there was the unanswered question of where adequate weapons supplies would come from and how Ukraine would build yet another army, since by my count, its third is in the process of being destroyed. The idea of forced repatriation of military-aged men from the rest of Europe was a joke, another demonstration of Ukraine’s sense of entitlement.

But Zelensky’s effort to drum up more money and goodies from the West via his UN and Washington sales effort fell worse than flat. For one-stop shopping, see Simplicius the Thinker in Zelensky’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad D.C. Snubfest.

Zelensky’s visit revealed how the cost of Project Ukraine has become far too high as recognition rises that what would be required just to keep things going is an open checkbook…even before getting to the looming manpower problem. In an attempt to keep the optics up as Team Biden and other over-invested in Ukraine try to regroup, more and more spokescritters are shifting their patter from “Great Ukraine victory when it restarts the offensive” to the new sick fantasy of a multi-year war.

And even worse, European support is also buckling. As we discussed yesterday via Andrew Korybko’s post, Poland & Ukraine Have Plunged Into A Full-Blown Political Crisis With No End In Sight, both Slovakia and Poland have elections soon. Parties opposed to continuing high levels of support for Ukraine have good potential to win. If they were to prevail, it would knock the wind out of the pretense of NATO support for Ukraine.3

Poland in particular has been one of the most rabid supporters for Ukraine, and by virtue of location and inclination, has been imagined to be a source of troops if the US and NATO were to be so foolish as to put their own boots on the ground. Polish president Duda may be pandering to save his electoral hide by standing up to what he depicts as Ukraine’s abuse of the grain deal and describing Ukraine a drowning man that he will not allow to pull Poland down into the drink, even as Prime Minister Morawiecki says no new weapons will be sent to to Ukraine. But some things cannot be unsaid.

Now after that introduction, to the main event of the exceedingly poor economic prospects for what will be left of Ukraine… which is not even known. It’s pretty remarkable to see chipper talk in the West of rebuilding Ukraine, since it presupposes there will be a meaningful Ukraine left. It’s reminiscent of children discussing how much of an ailing parent’s wealth they expect to carve up when the process of dying could well wipe out the remaining assets.

The quality of data about Ukraine is terrible. Western reporters appear to have mainly visited Kiev, which so far has been spared most of the destruction, and only a few hardy souls have gone to the front lines. As far as I can tell, we don’t have sightings of conditions in much of Western Ukraine, save also for the shellings of Odessa. Note that Russia has increased its strikes on Lviv in the past month. So we don’t have much of an idea of how much physical damage has been done.

We have discussed Russia’s selective destruction of the electrical grid. Even though enough was patched up to keep it running, some have claimed that the repairs are glue-and-bandaid enough that parts will probably fall over on their own with increased winter load.

Russia has also been using drones a lot of late and holding back on missiles, which means it could easily rinse and repeat its grid attacks. Since only Russia makes the major components of the Ukraine electrical system, and Ukraine had been some of its replacements from former Warsaw Pact members, more Russian attacks would eventually put large parts of the electrical system beyond anyone’s ability to fix save Russia’s (the West is simply not going to build special purpose factories for the a big blip of Ukraine refitting).

So Russia if it wants to controls Western Ukraine’s future if it sufficiently takes out its power network.

Let’s consider other complicating factors. One is the loss of population, particularly of the working age. As Michael Vlahos pointed out:

However, Luttwak bases his prediction on Ukraine having a population of 30 million. That number comes from January 2022. In an analysis by the think tank Jamestown Foundation, which is connected to the American intelligence community, it is said that the Ukrainian population has today shrunk to just 20 million, slightly more than the Netherlands, but fewer than Taiwan. And of the 20 million, according to the Jamestown Foundation, retirees make up over half: 10.7 million.

Ukraine’s government is now substantially if not totally dependent on Western funding. Federal spending was $35 billion in 2021 and $61 billion in 2022. A substantial portion of US aid was to prop up the government.

And even if spending falls from war-level peaks, Ukraine’s fall in GDP (estimated at 25%, which seems low) in combination with not just an aged population, but now a large number of war disabled, including many amputees, means an increased social burden with greatly diminished productive capacity.

And we have not even factored in what happens if Russia eventually marches up to the Dnieper, getting even more of Ukraine’s most productive farm land, and/or takes the Black Sea coast, turning Ukraine into an even poorer landlocked rump state. The fact that the US is unwilling to make any concession to the key Russian demand of no Ukraine ever in NATO means Russia will prosecute the war until it has subjugated Ukraine, by whatever combination of conquest, installation of a captive government, and economic destruction needs to happen.

Consider what has happened to the hryvnia under the tender ministrations of the US:

What happens when the Western budget support to Ukraine dries up?

Huge deficit spending.

And what do big deficits in combination with a big loss of economic productive capacity produce? Hyperinflation.

Now with these sorry prospects, we nevertheless have the touting of the reconstruction plans, because big private sector names like BlackRock are attached to them.

President Biden just appointed the multi-billionaire heiress Penny Pritzker – Obama's chief mega-donor – to oversee the profiteering plans in Ukraine of BlackRock, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs: to "rebuild" the country with US funds once Raytheon and Boeing are done profiteering… pic.twitter.com/y10rI8alYx

— System Update (@SystemUpdate_) September 16, 2023

People like Greenwald are concerned, but not to worry. This rebuilding program is a hollow mandate. The fact that various players might skim some fees while spinning their wheels does not meant there is a prospect of anything meaningful happening. I could go on at great length and may do a fuller kneecapping later. But this will hopefully do for now.

First, those who remember the 2015 Greek bailout crisis may recall that the Troika tried hawking Greek assets, hired agents, and had planned to reap €50 billion. As we wrote in Look What You Can Buy in the Greek Liquidation Sale!, that figure was wildly exaggerated. As far as I could tell, aside from the sale of the port of Pireaus, the effort was a huge flop. And remember, Greece was suffering merely from a very depressed economy and the related loss of workers with employment prospects in the rest of Europe, as it was nothing even remotely as bad a basket case as Ukraine will be.

Second, by making reconstruction a private sector initiative, governments are effectively washing their hands of Ukraine.4 The most critical parts of Ukraine to rebuild will be the foundations of functioning communities: roads, water systems, bridges. Those are built by governments because they are shared goods. Pray tell, what kind of society would Ukraine have if it ran on the infrastructure fund basis of having only/mainly toll roads and bridges?

Third, the numbers Ukraine needs are ginormous. Even the $300 billion of Russia assets that “seize not freeze” Ursula von der Leyen would like to get her hands on is not enough. Zelensky in July said Ukraine needed $750 billion for reconstruction.

Even if Zelensky were miraculously to get the funding, where would the know-how and skilled laborers come from? Very few Western countries (France and Australia high on the list) are good at large scale infrastructure. But all of the members of the Project Ukraine would want their piece of the reconstruction pie. Imagine the squabbling and the low odds that the best qualified players would get the green light.

Fourth, Zelensky is again selling hopium. Per the Daily Mail:

The meeting discussed the creation of a platform for attracting private capital to rebuild Ukraine. Zelensky also focused on directions of large investment projects in Ukraine specifically in green energy, IT, and agricultural technologies.

All those initiatives presuppose a functioning economy, such as a decent number of high-end professionals and well-functioning logistics. Those are conditions not likely to be much in evidence.

Finally, for an initiative this large to have any chance of success, you’d need to divvy the work among top infrastructure players around the world. Instead, Team Biden threw a US party. Note how far down on the Infrastructure Investor list below BlackRock is. Ukraine’s lead adviser JP Morgan is #78. KKR, which is #4, has strong Republican ties, which is the presumed reason for them not being much in evidence in this effort despite being the best qualified US player:

In other words, the Ukraine tragedy will not be over if and when the war ends. Americans should be embarrassed that we plan to add investor looting to the damage, even though as indicated that is actually unlikely to get much of anywhere.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 07:00

Here's Where Grassroots Crypto Adoption Is Highest

Here's Where Grassroots Crypto Adoption Is Highest

Of 154 countries analyzed by blockchain data platform Chainalysis, India ranks the highest in grassroots crypto adoption by far.

While countries with higher purchasing power would naturally score better when looking at transaction volumes, according to Chainalysis experts, the index measures where "average, everyday people are embracing crypto the most."

However, this result has to be taken with a grain of salt and can't be seen as indicative of a rise in the importance of cryptocurrencies in general.

As Statista's Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, based on Chainalysis's Global Crypto Adoption Index, only three countries score higher than 0.5 out of 1.0.

Infographic: Where Grassroots Crypto Adoption Is Highest | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Apart from India, residents of Nigeria and Vietnam are most likely to utilize cryptocurrencies, while the United States and Ukraine rank fourth and fifth with scores of 0.37 and 0.22, respectively.

Of the countries with the highest marks on the index, nine out of the top 20 are in Asia, three in Latin America and two in Africa.

The Chainalysis Crypto Adoption Index rates countries based on a variety of factors. It looks at trade values on centralized exchanges and services, peer-to-peer trade volume and DeFi protocol cryptocurrency and retail values. The results are all weighted by purchasing power parity per capita, transformed into sub-indices, the mean of which is then used to calculate a country's final rank and score.

This serves as anecdotal evidence to the claim that cryptocurrency is seen by many as a financial equalizer for the un- or underbanked in so-called developing countries, even though crypto scams, hacks and fraud are widespread and substantial improvements to the living conditions connected to crypto in the respective countries have yet to materialize in a measurable way.

What does indeed materialize is that crypto can effectively circumvent government restrictions. While China and Russia have each put out a ban on crypto payments and trading, the countries rank 11th and 13th, respectively, ahead of countries like the United Kingdom.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 07:35

Frontex: Only 8% Of EU's Illegal Migrants Were Women Last Year

Frontex: Only 8% Of EU's Illegal Migrants Were Women Last Year

Authored by Denes Albert via Remix News,

Last year, the vast majority of migrants smuggled into the European Union were males, with the proportion of females only 8 percent, the European Border Agency Frontex said in its 2023-2024 risk analysis report.

In what Frontex terms “clandestine entries,” the leading group of nationals were Afghans (33 percent) followed by Syrians (15 percent) and Turks (10 percent).

The Frontex report also warned that illegal entries are likely to further increase next year:

“There is much to suggest that clandestine entry may increase in the next year in line with expected higher migratory pressure at the EU external borders in general,” it said.

“At the same time, increased vehicle traffic at select border-crossing points (not to mention possibly altered circumstances while crossing land BCPs during the introduction of the Entry-Exit System) increases the chances of clandestine migrants going undetected, often under life-threatening and inhumane conditions.”

The report also pointed out that illegal entrants come from countries (mostly Afghanistan and Syria) “where some of the largest increases in movements to Europe may be expected.”

Frontex also said that in addition to illegal migration, there was also a proliferation of drug smuggling networks into the European Union, with reported drug seizures in 2022 amounting to 1,898 cases and 252 tons of illicit drugs.

For years, critics of mass immigration have noted that most of the illegal migrants coming to Europe are fighting-age males, in sharp contrast to the majority of women who came from Ukraine when the war broke out.

In addition, the vast majority of these males are economic migrants who are not fleeing war or persecution.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 08:10

US Abrams Tanks Arrive In Ukraine Next Week, Biden Confirms

US Abrams Tanks Arrive In Ukraine Next Week, Biden Confirms

During Zelensky's visit to the White House on Thursday the only positive news Ukraine received was that it is about to imminently take possession of the US Abrams tanks which were long ago promised. Kiev has all along complained at the slowness of getting further advanced Western weapons systems.

"Next week, the first US Abrams tanks will be delivered in Ukraine," Biden said before reporters while sitting alongside Zelensky, who was on his second visit to the US since the war began.

But as Foreign Policy has pointed out, the tanks aren't really what Kiev is currently after. What wasn't approved are long-range missiles being discussed by the Biden administration, specifically the Army's ATACMS missiles.

A group of Ukrainian tank operators and their support crew reportedly wrapped up training by late August, and next week will see the first of 10 of these US-made battle tanks delivered. This is of the 31 total which were committed

But so far other Western tanks, such as the UK Challenger II and Germany's Leopard, have made little discernable difference along the stalemated front lines. Russia has firm hold over much of the east, has dug it its positions, and established miles of deadly mine fields. 

The initial ten tanks are being transferred from Germany, as Politico recently detailed:

Ten of the 70-ton tanks are currently in Germany undergoing final refurbishments, said the DOD official. Once that is complete, they will be shipped to Ukraine.

"The U.S. is committed to expedite delivery of the 31 tanks to Ukraine by the fall," said O’Donnell. He declined to provide a specific timeline.

Presumably after the first 10 arrive the remainder won't be far behind, but this also depends on how many of the Ukrainian tank crews have completed training.

Russian forces will certainly be on the lookout, and targeting the Abrams likely from the air, given recently at least one or more UK Challengers were destroyed, it was confirmed early this month. This was a first for the Challenger II, in its history of production, as British defense officials later conceded.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 08:45

US To Finance, Train Kenyan Soldiers For Mission To Haiti

US To Finance, Train Kenyan Soldiers For Mission To Haiti

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

The US is preparing a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution to authorize Kenya to send its soldiers to Haiti. Washington believes Nairobi can aid Port-au-Prince in restoring order to gang-controlled territory. The Joe Biden administration said the American taxpayers will foot the bill for the deployment, and US soldiers will train the Kenyan force

For a year, the White House has sought a third country to send its soldiers into Haiti as UN Peacekeepers. After Canada resisted American pressure to lead the force, Nairobi agreed to send its troops to the Caribbean nation. 

Kenyan soldiers in the Congo

The AP notes that some Haitians are opposed to the deployment of UN soldiers from Kenya. In 2010, UN forces released sewage, causing a cholera outbreak that killed nearly 10,000 Haitians. Additionally, Kenyan soldiers have been credibly accused of war crimes in Somalia, where Nairobi conducted military operations in the name of counterterrorism. 

Kenya-based Independent Medico-Legal Unit issued a report this month warning that Kenyan police are committing an increasing number of human rights abuses since President William Ruto took office. The US has provided a significant amount of training to the Kenyan soldiers. However, there is no indication it has curbed abuses by Nairobi’s security forces at home or in Somalia. 

Speaking at the General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, Biden called on the UNSC to pass a resolution allowing Kenya to send troops to Haiti. "On Haiti, the Caribbean communities facilitated a dialogue among Haitian society. I thank President Ruto of Kenya – I thank him for his willingness to serve as a lead nation of a UN-backed security support mission," he said. "I call on the Security Council to authorize this mission now. The people of Haiti cannot wait much longer."

On Wednesday, Ruto met with Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry in an official ceremony to commemorate Washington’s plot to send Kenyan forces to Port-au-Prince. Washington says it will fund the missions and provide the peacekeepers training

The security situation in Haiti has devolved since Henry took office in Port-au-Prince. Henry took power over the Caribbean nation after former leader Jovernal Moise was assassinated in July of 2021. The US-backed Henry’s ascension to power, and he has since been named as a plotter in Moise’s assassination. 

The Haitian Prime Minister has backed foreign intervention in his nation despite UN Peacekeepers’ track record of human rights abuses. UN soldiers are infamous for having sex with underage girls and leaving women without financial support.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 09:20

Trouble Ahead: Container Shipping Rates Sinking Further Into The Red

Trouble Ahead: Container Shipping Rates Sinking Further Into The Red

By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

It’s not looking good for container shipping lines. Peak season is running out of whatever limited steam it previously had. Spot rates are sliding into loss-making territory.

Rates “continue to lose ground, bending under the pressure of insufficient demand and growing overcapacity,” said Alphaliner this week. According to Linerlytica, “Container market sentiment continues to deteriorate, with freight rates still slipping and little prospect for a rate rebound in October despite carriers’ efforts to contain capacity availability through blanked [canceled] sailings.”

This is particularly bad news for ocean carrier Zim, which has unusually high spot exposure in the trans-Pacific this year — 70% versus the typical 50%.

Sinking rates to both US and Europe

The Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) spot assessment for the Asia-North America West Coast lane has fallen 16% over the past month, to $1,712 per forty-foot equivalent unit as of Thursday. The FBX Asia-North America East Coast assessment is down 13% over the past month, to $2,662 per FEU.

Asia-Europe lanes are seeing double-digit pullbacks as well.

“For North Europe, we have not seen the spot rate this low since early 2018, when the level was lower for a brief two weeks,” Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said in an online post on Thursday. “To see a more sustained period of spot rates this low or lower, we have to go back to the depths of the price war in late 2015 and early 2016.”

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) shows that European trades are faring even worse than the U.S. trades. WCI spot indexes hit a recent peak on Aug. 17. Since then, the WCI assessment for Shanghai to Rotterdam, Netherlands, has plunged 34%. Spot prices from Shanghai to Genoa, Italy, have dropped 27%.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles assessments have declined 11% since Aug. 17, to $2,104 per FEU for the week ending Thursday. The WCI Shanghai-New York index dropped 18% over the same period, to $2,900 per FEU.

Spot levels fall back toward contract levels

Ocean carriers saw some green shoots in July and August as trans-Pacific spot levels rebounded to above annual contract rates. Carrier executives said they did not lock in loss-making rates in their annual contract negotiations, implying that if spot rates exceeded contract rates, the spot business was back in the black.

But the premium of spot rates to contract rates in the Asia-East Coast trade has collapsed over the past month, according to data from Xeneta.

Xeneta data shows that average short-term (spot) rates in the Asia-East Coast trade were an impressive $580 per FEU higher than average long-term (contract) rates on Aug. 15.

No longer. Short-term rates were just $77 per FEU higher than long-term rates as of Thursday. (The spot-to-contract premium is still material in the Asia-West Coast lane, at $283 per FEU.)

Fallout for Zim

The deteriorating spot market in the Asia-East Coast trade via the Panama Canal is particularly worrisome for ocean carrier Zim, because that’s the trans-Pacific trade it’s focused on.

Zim ceased the last of its services to the U.S. West Coast in the first quarter and has deployed its newbuildings on the East Coast route. The Asia-East Coast market is Zim’s most important global trade by far, accounting for 34% of total volume in Q2 2023.

 Zim has an unusually high 70% of its trans-Pacific business on spot this year because it could not find enough customers to meet the minimum price threshold it had set for annual contracts (which run from May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024).

At the time of its latest quarterly call, on Aug. 16, spot rates exceeded contract rates, so Zim was temporarily benefiting from its decision on the spot-contract mix. However, Zim CFO Xavier Destriau openly acknowledged that this could change.

“We remain extremely cautious. How long the recent improvement in the trans-Pacific trade lane will stick is unknown. Whether it’s going to go beyond October or not is unknown,” he said on the call.

The latest index data implies that Zim’s caution was justified and its bet on the spot trade could indeed turn negative, if it hasn’t already.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 09:55

American Pandemic 'Samizdat': Bhattacharya

American Pandemic 'Samizdat': Bhattacharya

Authored by Jay Bhattacharya via RealClear Wire,

On May 15, 1970, the New York Times published an article by esteemed Russia scholar Albert Parry detailing how Soviet dissident intellectuals were covertly passing forbidden ideas around to each other on handcrafted, typewritten documents called samizdat. Here is the beginning of that seminal story:

Censorship existed even before literature, say the Russians. And, we may add, censorship being older, literature has to be craftier. Hence, the new and remarkably viable underground press in the Soviet Union called samizdat.

Samizdat – translates as: “We publish ourselves” – that is, not the state, but we, the people.

Unlike the underground of Czarist times, today’s samizdat has no printing presses (with rare exceptions): The K.G.B., the secret police, is too efficient. It is the typewriter, each page produced with four to eight carbon copies, that does the job. By the thousands and tens of thousands of frail, smudged onionskin sheets, samizdat spreads across the land a mass of protests and petitions, secret court minutes, Alexander Solzhenitsyn’s banned novels, George Orwell’s “Animal Farm” and “1984,” Nicholas Berdyayev’s philosophical essays, all sorts of sharp political discourses and angry poetry.

Though it is hard to hear, the sad fact is that we are living in a time and in a society where there is once again a need for scientists to pass around their ideas secretly to one another so as to avoid censorship, smearing, and defamation by government authorities in the name of science.

I say this from first-hand experience. During the pandemic, the U.S. government violated my free speech rights and those of my scientist colleagues for questioning the federal government’s COVID policies.

American government officials, working in concert with big tech companies, defamed and suppressed me and my colleagues for criticizing official pandemic policies – criticism that has been proven prescient. While this may sound like a conspiracy theory, it is a documented fact, and one recently confirmed by a federal circuit court.

In August 2022, the Missouri and Louisiana attorneys general asked me to join as a plaintiff in a lawsuit, represented by the New Civil Liberties Alliance, against the Biden administration. The suit aims to end the government’s role in this censorship and restore the free speech rights of all Americans in the digital town square.

Lawyers in the Missouri v. Biden case took sworn depositions from many federal officials involved in the censorship efforts, including Anthony Fauci. During the hours-long deposition, Fauci showed a striking inability to answer basic questions about his pandemic management, replying “I don’t recall” over 170 times.

Legal discovery unearthed email exchanges between the government and social media companies showing an administration willing to threaten the use of its regulatory power to harm social media companies that did not comply with censorship demands.

The case revealed that a dozen federal agencies pressured social media companies Google, Facebook, and Twitter to censor and suppress speech contradicting federal pandemic priorities. In the name of slowing the spread of harmful misinformation, the administration forced the censorship of scientific facts that didn’t fit its narrative de jour. This included facts relating to the evidence for immunity after COVID recovery, the inefficacy of mask mandates, and the inability of the vaccine to stop disease transmission. True or false, if speech interfered with the government’s priorities, it had to go.

On July 4, U.S. Federal District Court Judge Terry Doughty issued a preliminary injunction in the case, ordering the government to immediately stop coercing social media companies to censor protected free speech. In his decision, Doughty called the administration’s censorship infrastructure an Orwellian “Ministry of Truth.”

In my November 2021 testimony in the House of Representatives, I used this exact phrase to describe the government’s censorship efforts. For this heresy, I faced slanderous accusations by Rep. Jamie Raskin, who accused me of wanting to let the virus “rip.” Raskin was joined by fellow Democrat Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who tried to smear my reputation on the grounds that I spoke with a Chinese journalist in April 2020.

Judge Doughty’s ruling decried the vast federal censorship enterprise dictating to social media companies who and what to censor, and ordered it to end. But the Biden administration immediately appealed the decision, claiming that they needed to be able to censor scientists or else public health would be endangered and people would die. The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals granted them an administrative stay that lasted until mid-September, permitting the Biden administration to continue violating the First Amendment.

After a long month, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that that pandemic policy critics were not imagining these violations. The Biden administration did indeed strong-arm social media companies into doing its bidding. The court found that the Biden White House, the CDC, the U.S. surgeon general’s office, and the FBI have “engaged in a years-long pressure campaign [on social media outlets] designed to ensure that the censorship aligned with the government’s preferred viewpoints.”

The appellate judges described a pattern of government officials making “threats of ‘fundamental reforms’ like regulatory changes and increased enforcement actions that would ensure the platforms were ‘held accountable.’” But, beyond express threats, there was always an “unspoken ‘or else.’” The implication was clear. If social media companies did not comply, the administration would work to harm the economic interests of the companies. Paraphrasing Al Capone, “Well that’s a nice company you have there. Shame if something were to happen to it,” the government insinuated.

“The officials’ campaign succeeded. The platforms, in capitulation to state-sponsored pressure, changed their moderation policies,” the 5th Circuit judges wrote, and they renewed the injunction against the government’s violation of free speech rights. Here is the full order, filled with many glorious adverbs:

Defendants, and their employees and agents, shall take no actions, formal or informal, directly or indirectly, to coerce or significantly encourage social-media companies to remove, delete, suppress, or reduce, including through altering their algorithms, posted social-media content containing protected free speech. That includes, but is not limited to, compelling the platforms to act, such as by intimating that some form of punishment will follow a failure to comply with any request, or supervising, directing, or otherwise meaningfully controlling the social media companies’ decision-making processes.

The federal government can no longer threaten social media companies with destruction if they don’t censor scientists on behalf of the government. The ruling is a victory for every American since it is a victory for free speech rights.

Although I am thrilled by it, the decision isn’t perfect. Some entities at the heart of the government’s censorship enterprise can still organize to suppress speech. For instance, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) within the Department of Homeland Security can still work with academics to develop a hit list for government censorship. And the National Institutes of Health, Tony Fauci’s old organization, can still coordinate devastating takedowns of outside scientists critical of government policy.

So, what did the government want censored?

The trouble began on Oct. 4, 2020, when my colleagues and I – Dr. Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine at Harvard University, and Dr. Sunetra Gupta, an epidemiologist at the University of Oxford – published the Great Barrington Declaration. It called for an end to economic lockdowns, school shutdowns, and similar restrictive policies because they disproportionately harm the young and economically disadvantaged while conferring limited benefits.

The Declaration endorsed a “focused protection” approach that called for strong measures to protect high-risk populations while allowing lower-risk individuals to return to normal life with reasonable precautions. Tens of thousands of doctors and public health scientists signed on to our statement.

With hindsight, it is clear that this strategy was the right one. Sweden, which in large part eschewed lockdown and, after early problems, embraced focused protection of older populations, had among the lowest age-adjusted all-cause excess deaths of nearly every other country in Europe and suffered none of the learning loss for its elementary school children. Similarly, Florida has lower cumulative age-adjusted all-cause excess deaths than lockdown-crazy California since the start of the pandemic.

In the poorest parts of the world, the lockdowns were an even greater disaster. By spring 2020, the United Nations was already warning that the economic disruptions caused by the lockdowns would lead to 130 million or more people starving. The World Bank warned the lockdowns would throw 100 million people into dire poverty.

Some version of those predictions came true – millions of the world’s poorest suffered from the West’s lockdowns. Over the past 40 years, the world’s economies globalized, becoming more interdependent. At a stroke, the lockdowns broke the promise the world’s rich nations had implicitly made to poor nations. The rich nations had told the poor: Reorganize your economies, connect yourself to the world, and you will become more prosperous. This worked, with 1 billion people lifted out of dire poverty over the last half-century.

But the lockdowns violated that promise. The supply chain disruptions that predictably followed them meant millions of poor people in sub-Saharan Africa, Bangladesh, and elsewhere lost their jobs and could no longer feed their families.

In California, where I live, the government closed public schools and disrupted our children’s education for two straight academic years. The educational disruption was very unevenly distributed, with the poorest students and minority students suffering the greatest educational losses. By contrast, Sweden kept its schools open for students under 16 throughout the pandemic. The Swedes let their children live near-normal lives with no masks, no social distancing, and no forced isolation. As a result, Swedish kids suffered no educational loss.

The lockdowns, then, were a form of trickle-down epidemiology. The idea seemed to be that we should protect the well-to-do from the virus and that protection would somehow trickle down to protect the poor and the vulnerable. The strategy failed, as a large fraction of the deaths attributable to COVID hit the vulnerable elderly.

The government wanted to suppress the fact that there were prominent scientists who opposed the lockdowns and had alternate ideas – like the Great Barrington Declaration – that might have worked better. They wanted to maintain an illusion of total consensus in favor of Tony Fauci’s ideas, as if he were indeed the high pope of science. When he told an interviewer, “Everyone knows I represent science. If you criticize me, you are not simply criticizing a man, you are criticizing science itself,” he meant it unironically.

Federal officials immediately targeted the Great Barrington Declaration for suppression. Four days after the declaration’s publication, National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins emailed Fauci to organize a “devastating takedown” of the document. Almost immediately, social media companies such as Google/YouTube, Reddit, and Facebook censored mentions of the declaration.

In 2021, Twitter blacklisted me for posting a link to the Great Barrington Declaration. YouTube censored a video of a public policy roundtable of me with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the “crime” of telling him the scientific evidence for masking children is weak. 

At the height of the pandemic, I found myself smeared for my supposed political views, and my views about COVID policy and epidemiology were removed from the public square on all manner of social networks.

It is impossible for me not to speculate about what might have happened had our proposal been met with a more typical scientific spirit rather than censorship and vitriol. For anyone with an open mind, the GBD represented a return to the old pandemic management strategy that had served the world well for a century – identify and protect the vulnerable, develop treatments and countermeasures as rapidly as possible, and disrupt the lives of the rest of society as little as possible since such disruption is likely to cause more harm than good.

Without censorship, we might have won that debate, and if so, the world could have moved along a different and better path in the last three and a half years, with less death and less suffering.

Since I started with a story about how dissidents skirted the Soviet censorship regime, I will close with a story about Trofim Lysenko, the famous Russian biologist. Stalin’s favorite scientist was a biologist who did not believe in Mendelian genetics – one of the most important ideas in biology. He thought it was all hokum, inconsistent with communist ideology, which emphasized the importance of nurture over nature. Lysenko developed a theory that if you expose seeds to cold before you plant them, they will be more resistant to cold, and thereby, crop output could be increased dramatically.

I hope it is not a surprise to readers to learn that Lysenko was wrong about the science. Nevertheless, Lysenko convinced Stalin that his ideas were right, and Stalin rewarded him by making him the director of the USSR’s Institute for Genetics for more than 20 years. Stalin gave him the Order of Lenin eight times.

Lysenko used his power to destroy any biologist who disagreed with him. He smeared and demoted the reputations of rival scientists who thought Mendelian genetics was true. Stalin sent some of these disfavored scientists to Siberia, where they died. Lysenko censored the scientific discussion in the Soviet Union so no one dared question his theories.

The result was mass starvation. Soviet agriculture stalled, and millions died in famines caused by Lysenko’s ideas put into practice. Some sources say that Ukraine and China under Mao Tse-tung also followed Lysenko’s ideas, causing millions more to starve there.

Censorship is the death of science and inevitably leads to the death of people. America should be a bulwark against it, but it was not during the pandemic. Though the tide is turning with the Missouri v. Biden case, we must reform our scientific institutions so what happened during the pandemic never happens again.

Dr. Bhattacharya is the inaugural recipient of RealClear’s Samizdat Prize. This article was adapted from the speech he delivered at the award ceremony on September 12 in Palo Alto, California.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 10:30

Californians To Pay 18% Tax On Firearms, Ammo After Anti-Gun Lawmakers Strike

Californians To Pay 18% Tax On Firearms, Ammo After Anti-Gun Lawmakers Strike

Two weeks ago, the California Legislature passed a new excise tax on the sales price of all firearms, firearm precursor parts, and ammunition. The 11% tax, paid in addition to sales taxes (base statewide sales tax of 7.25%), would take effect on July 1, 2024. As of Thursday, Assembly Bill 28 remains on Gov. Gavin Newsom's desk. 

The bill was introduced by anti-gunner and Everytown and Giffords supporter, Democrat Assemblymember Jesse Gabriel of District 46, who has mentioned on his website, "We must ban the sale of assault weapons and stand up to the NRA. In the State Assembly, he'll fight for tough gun control laws to help prevent mass shootings and keep our kids safe." 

Gabriel told CalMatters:

"We've passed a lot of good gun safety laws. The data shows that we have a lower gun death rate here in California than we do in other states. But this was one of the big things that was still out there." 

Gabriel has been one of the most outspoken anti-gunner lawmakers in the crime-ridden state in his attempts to ban semi-automatic rifles. He has also partnered with former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords' anti-gun group Giffords to wage war on AR-15s. 

Gabriel's move against semi-automatic rifles is alarming, considering FBI data shows handguns are the most common murder weapon in the US. But ignore the inconvenient truth and target 'military-style assault weapons' instead. 

The gun and ammo tax will only make the cost of self-defense even more expensive for law-abiding citizens, especially the working poor, who have been dealing with out-of-control thefts and other crimes in the state as progressive policies backfire. 

Sam Paredes, Gun Owners of California Executive Director and GOA/GOF Board Member, called Assembly Bill 28 "unconstitutional, and in not so many words, it's proponents openly admitted the move was meant to harass gun owners and manufacturers because they've had record profits. GOA fully opposes this measure and is weighing legal action."

Gov. Newsom has until Oct. 14 to either sign the bill into law or veto it. 

"Yet again, we see the anti-gun state of California pushing the envelope when it comes to infringing the Second Amendment and the right to keep and bear arms. Now, they're creating a new tax to prevent the most vulnerable people from protecting and defending themselves—a tax that will do nothing to keep guns or ammunition out of the hands of criminals. These California tyrants may keep trying to disarm us, but that means we will keep suing them into submission. Fall in line, or we will make you," said Erich Pratt, Senior Vice President, Gun Owners of America

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 11:00

RFK Jr As A Third-Party Candidate

RFK Jr As A Third-Party Candidate

Authored by Hank Vanderbeek via AmericanThinker.com,

Should RFK, Jr. run for President on the Democrat ticket or move to a third-party ticket like Teddy Roosevelt did?

Even as President Joe Biden leads in the 2024 primaries, Democrat presidential contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has higher favorability and lower unfavorability numbers than either President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, (Trump 43%, Biden 41%, RFK, Jr. 14% unfavorability) according to a new poll by The Economist/YouGov.

Rasmussen reports that a survey also revealed that twenty-five percent (25%) of likely Democrat voters would vote for RFK Jr. in the 2023 primaries for President. Three percent (3%) of Democrats favor author Marianne Williamson in the primaries, while seven percent (7%) would vote for another candidate. The Rasmussen Report is based on a national survey of 998 U.S. likely voters conducted September 14 and 17-18, 2023.

Teddy Roosevelt ran for president in 1912 on the Progressive Party ticket, a third party, against incumbent Republican President William Howard Taft. Taft was elected president in 1908, the successor of Teddy Roosevelt, but was defeated for reelection in 1912 by Woodrow Wilson because Roosevelt’s third party split the Republican vote. The Republicans won in 1920 with a campaign positioned around opposition to Wilson's policies with Warren G. Harding promising a "return to normalcy." Sound familiar?

The Progressive Party was nicknamed the Bull Moose Party when Roosevelt boasted that he felt "strong as a bull moose" after losing the Republican nomination at the June 1912 convention in Chicago. RFK, Jr. is as strong as a bull moose both physically and mentally. RFK, Jr. is jacked and that is well documented. At 69, he is ripped like few others his age. He’d beat Putin in a Mr. Universe Senior contest. You won’t see RFK, Jr. tripping on stairs, falling off his bicycle at 5 mph, or saying I have to go to bed now during a news interview.

Don’t let spasmodic dysphonia, a neurological disorder that causes involuntary spasms in the larynx, cloud your judgement about RFK, Jr.’s mental acuity or toughness. He lived through the tragedy of his uncle, President John F. Kennedy and his dad’s assassinations, and has had an extraordinarily successful career as an environmental lawyer fighting for sane policies against the U.S. Department of Environment Protection and big business. His ideas on foreign policy, the economy, and other critical issues are clear, logical, and convincing.

His detractors want you to believe he is feeding Americans’ hunger for conspiracies. Americans have been fed conspiracies constantly by the extreme Left. The Left bombards us every day with “conspiracy theories” that is if you liken a conspiracy to a lie.

RFK, Jr. explained convincingly the circumstances and facts surrounding his uncle’s death in a recent speech at a private residence New Hampshire. Attend one of his campaign events to find out firsthand that JFK, Jr. is a straight shooter, extremely well versed, and perspicacious on a multitude of topics affecting Main Street America.

Can RFK, Jr. win the presidency on a third-party ticket? Who knows? At the very least a third party would in all likelihood obtain enough votes to allow a pro-Main Street America candidate like former President Donald J. Trump.

This country needs to return to what made America great: hard work, freedom to choose, and the right to speak without fear of disparagement, or worse.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 11:30

Why Did Bill Gates Make Sudden U-Turn On Climate Doom Narrative?

Why Did Bill Gates Make Sudden U-Turn On Climate Doom Narrative?

Microsoft co-founder, philanthropist, and climate alarmist Bill Gates has backtracked on 'climate doom' prophecies. The writing is on the wall for the political and financial elites, who have long championed imminent climate doom, realizing that the public sees through the charades. 

In 2021, Gates previously warned about apocalyptic consequences if the world does not achieve zero net carbon emissions by the year 2050. He also promoted his new book, "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster" (fear sells). 

On Thursday, Gates made a sudden U-turn on his climate doom narrative and now expects "No temperate country is going to become uninhabitable."

Gates spoke at a live event at The Times Center in New York and argued: "If you try to do climate brute force, you will get people who say, 'I like climate but I don't want to bear that cost and reduce my standard of living." 

He also dismissed planting trees to save the planet, questioning: "Are we the science people or are we the idiots?" he said. "Which one do we want to be?"

Gates' latest comments are a stark difference from just a few years ago when he warned "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace: 

"The migration that we saw out of Syria for their civil war, which was somewhat weather dependent, we're going to have 10 times as much migration because the equatorial areas will become unlivable." 

Gates' U-turn comes as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink abandoned the term "ESG" (environment, social, and governance). And the 'green bubble' is imploding. 

.@BillGates has a brush with sanity:

1. "No temperate country is going to become uninhabitable."

2. "If you try to do climate brute force, you will get people who say, ‘I like climate but I don’t want to bear that cost and reduce my standard of living."

3. Dismisses planting… pic.twitter.com/FfAg5iqAIf

— Steve Milloy (@JunkScience) September 22, 2023

And, of course, Gates is smart. He understands the propaganda isn't working anymore and must resonate with the majority to prevent getting 'Bud Light'd.'  

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 12:00

Biden’s Permitting Proposal Would Backfire, Add Red Tape For Affordable Energy Projects

Biden’s Permitting Proposal Would Backfire, Add Red Tape For Affordable Energy Projects

Authored by Patrice Douglas via RealClear Wire,

Right now, the development of energy projects of any kind takes years because of the hundreds of permitting hurdles that hold up projects in a long and complex process. In June, the Fiscal Responsibility Act took a step forward in reforming the permitting system by establishing time limits for environmental reviews and providing accountability for missed deadlines. However, the Biden administration recently issued proposals that could overwrite this progress by adding more red tape to an already difficult process.

The White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) announced additional reforms to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) that aim to expedite permitting for renewable energy projects and infrastructure. Under the proposed rule, agencies would be allowed to flag certain projects as not having a significant impact on the environment, speeding up their processes while leaving others in the dust.

The Biden administration’s NEPA proposal advances an inefficient permitting scheme and provides yet another roadblock to energy projects in the U.S The reforms reverse important provisions of a 2020 NEPA rule that reigned in extreme public comment rules that were setting back project approvals and increasing red tape. The 2020 changes brought commons sense into the public comment process by eliminating the ability to use public comment to delay.  By changing these rules again, we are codifying “environmental justice” – something that Congress did not intend or include in the Act.  This new Biden proposal perpetuates an inefficient system, and provides yet another roadblock to energy projects in the U.S.

The Biden administration’s strategy with this proposal is to hamstring traditional oil and gas projects and artificially push green energy projects ahead – effectively codifying their misguided “environmental justice” priorities into law without approval from congress This tactic is similar to the administration’s recent policies on electric vehicles. Biden’s EPA has proposed vehicle emissions standards so tough that they are a de facto EV mandate.

These latest reforms to NEPA adopt a similar strategy to rush the transition to renewable energy, but they would only succeed in burdening consumers through higher prices and jeopardizing energy reliability.

Time and time again, the Biden administration tip toes around the actual problem under the guise of transitioning to clean energy, catering to the environmental lobby and liberal supporters. With our current infrastructure, we cannot rely solely on renewables to meet our energy needs. We’ve seen states like California try and rush the implementation of renewables, which resulted in them falling back on traditional fuel sources to fill energy gaps. 

This is not just a national issue. We’ve seen other countries preemptively transition to renewable energy dependency like Germany, which left its energy security vulnerable in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany enforced broad mandates for green technologies that placed a heavy economic burden on its citizens and facilitated a reliance on foreign energy. The war in Europe quickly illustrated the shortcomings of relying on intermittent renewable energy sources, as well as hostile actors, plunging Germany, and Europe, into a volatile energy crisis.

The U.S. has stepped up to support our ally, fortifying our relationship and providing affordable and dependable energy to Germany for years to come. In 2023, the U.S. has entered significant long-term agreements to supply LNG to Germany, which has further positioned our nation to emerge as a global leader in energy production. Not only does this help our allies but it also boosts our national and local economies. Without the streamlined ability to build more energy infrastructure projects in a timely manner, the U.S. cannot continue to expand support for our allies.

In spite of our current permitting process, the oil and gas industry employs over 1 million hard-working Americans and contributes $1.7 trillion to our national GDP. The oil and gas industry provides many high-paying dependable jobs, while generating much needed tax revenue for state and local economies that support education, healthcare and law enforcement. If this is what the oil and gas industry is providing our country right now, you can only imagine the possibilities that a streamlined process and an increase in energy projects can provide our country. The current permitting process is holding hostage the potential of American innovation and is allowing for citizens to miss opportunities and economic benefits of a boosted energy industry.

It is imperative that the Biden administration fully address the inefficiencies of the current permitting process, as well as the shortfalls of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, to ensure a strong energy sector for years to come. Instead of picking winners and losers and giving short cuts to certain energy projects, the Biden Administration should apply thorough but efficient reviews to all projects.

Patrice Douglas is an attorney and former chairman of the Oklahoma Corporation Commission. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 12:30

Watch: National Guard Rolls Into Eagle Pass, Texas As Biden's Border Crisis Spirals Out-Of-Control

Watch: National Guard Rolls Into Eagle Pass, Texas As Biden's Border Crisis Spirals Out-Of-Control

Townhall reporter Julio Rosas says the National Guard has sealed parts of the Eagle Pass, Texas, border with Mexico to prevent a further invasion of thousands of illegals crossing into the US. 

🚨: The National Guard is preventing illegal immigrants from entering Eagle Pass. pic.twitter.com/tAVe9KyAQd

— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) September 23, 2023

Rosas said, "At a different spot along the Rio Grande, illegal immigrants are finding a way through the C-wire despite the National Guard being there."

At a different spot along the Rio Grande, illegal immigrants are finding a way through the C-wire despite the National Guard being there. pic.twitter.com/qaapFMS9qQ

— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) September 23, 2023

"After the group passed through, Guardsmen placed more C-wire in the gap illegal immigrants used to enter Eagle Pass," he said. 

After the group passed through, Guardsmen placed more C-wire in the gap illegal immigrants used to enter Eagle Pass. pic.twitter.com/bP8HDAotQl

— Julio Rosas (@Julio_Rosas11) September 23, 2023

Eagle Pass has been the epicenter of the border invasion this past week. 

Thousands of migrants continue to flood into Eagle Pass, Texas, after the Biden administration was filmed removing razor wire intended to deter illegal crossings.

The mayor of Eagle Pass has declared a state of emergency and is "pleading for help."pic.twitter.com/hlnZI10djO

— KanekoaTheGreat (@KanekoaTheGreat) September 21, 2023

On Wednesday, Fox News reporter Bill Melugin posted alarming footage of the migrant invasion on X. 

It’s a total free for all in Eagle Pass right now. Mass illegal crossing taking place for over an hour and a half. Almost 2 years to the day we saw 15,000+ Haitians under the bridge in Del Rio, we now have thousands of predominantly Venezuelans gathering under Eagle Pass bridge. pic.twitter.com/VkfUQnexGZ

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 20, 2023

Elon Musk then felt compelled to ask: "Strange that there is almost no legacy media coverage of this."

Strange that there is almost no legacy media coverage of this.

About 2 million people – from every country on Earth – are entering through the US southern border every year.

The number is rising rapidly, yet no preventive action is taken by the current administration. https://t.co/EF7HTS1ktT

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 20, 2023

Texas Governor Greg Abbott declared an "invasion," blaming President Biden's disastrous open border policies. 

I officially declared an invasion at our border because of Biden's policies.

We deployed the Texas National Guard, DPS & local law enforcement.

We are building a border wall, razor wire & marine barriers.

We are also repelling migrants.

More: https://t.co/dEivr1lL2n pic.twitter.com/hzCl6ouTVJ

— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) September 20, 2023

On Thursday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre failed to answer Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy's question:

 "So, what do you call it here at the White House when 10,000 people illegally cross the border in a single day?"

Doocy: “What do you call it when 10,000 illegals cross the border in a single day.”

Jean-Pierre: “What do you call it when republicans…”

Doocy: You’re not answering

Jean-Pierre: “We’re moving on”
pic.twitter.com/rvKDTDLUt9

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 21, 2023

The Border Patrol Union then blasted the 'radical' Biden administration:

"From Sept 1st through 20th the Biden Admin ordered the release of more than 100,000 illegal border crashers-enough to double the population of cities like Yuma, AZ. Think about what Biden is doing to this country with his out-of-control border policies. How many millions more?" 

From Sept 1st through 20th the Biden Admin ordered the release of more than 100,000 illegal border crashers-enough to double the population of cities like Yuma, AZ.

Think about what Biden is doing to this country with his out-of-control border policies. How many millions more?

— Border Patrol Union - NBPC (@BPUnion) September 21, 2023

Then, an alleged video of Border Patrol agents breaking rank surfaced on X. 

Border Patrol Agents ARE BREAKING RANKS!! They Are Questioning Why Isn’t Leadership UPHOLDING THE CONSTITUTION ‼️

Border Patrol Chief “We stay focused we continue to do the job and the mission that we signed up for. We all signed up for it, we all raised our hand.”

BRAVE… pic.twitter.com/yLmzFqwKMg

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) September 21, 2023

The majority of Americans did not vote for open borders. A small fringe minority of financial and political elites are abusing their power over the majority, and folks are getting fed up. 

JUST IN: Fox News stops at bar in Bozeman, Montana.

Shocked to find out that out every single one of the patrons is voting for 47..

HAS AMERICA FINALLY HAD ENOUGH? pic.twitter.com/BIBxfERe9e

— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) September 22, 2023

Biden inherited a border under control and enforced disastrous policies that have only led to "unprecedented illegal entry, human trafficking, and deadly fentanyl killing more than 100,000 Americans a year," Judiciary Committee Senior Member Congressman Darrell Issa (CA-48) wrote in a statement on Friday. 

With over 500,000+ known encounters EACH QUARTER! Which is the equivalent of the entire population of Tucson, AZ! This is our best case scenario as far as murderers and rapists goes... #BorderCrisis pic.twitter.com/mr79oqysky

— Unbiased Crime Report (@UnbiasedCrime) September 19, 2023

Issa warned: "Make no mistake: the next chapter of the Biden border disaster is here. It needs to be brought to a close, and Congress must act."

“No nation in history has survived once its borders were destroyed, its citizenship was rendered no different from mere residence, and its neighbors with impunity undermined its sovereignty.”
—Victor Davis Hanson (@VDHanson) pic.twitter.com/dfSr52ZgqM

— Larry Elder (@larryelder) September 23, 2023

... and just in time for the next presidential election cycle as these immigrants flood major metro areas. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 13:00

Striking Autoworkers Will Only Harm Their Own Livelihoods

Striking Autoworkers Will Only Harm Their Own Livelihoods

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

On Friday, September 15, 12,700 members of the United Auto Workers union (UAW) walked off the job at plants owned by the “Big Three” automakers - Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis (which owns Chrysler, Jeep, and Ram). The walkout marked the beginning of a series of long-expected targeted strikes aiming to give the UAW leverage as it renegotiates contracts with the three companies. [ZH: And Friday September 22, the situation escalated.]

The strike is grounded in frustrations over worker compensation.

Union members and their supporters point to high profits and CEO pay at the Big Three and compare them to stagnant wages and rising costs of living among autoworkers. They feel like they’re being ripped off.

And they’re right. Like the rest of the working class, autoworkers are being ripped off. Decades of interventionism have built an economic system that harms workers while helping the corporate and political classes. The first reason for this is monetary policy. Ever since President Richard Nixon abolished the gold standard in the early 1970s, a handful of bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve have been charged with determining the value of our currency. And those bureaucrats have decided that the dollar should lose value every year. They aim for a decline of 2 percent annually, but the rate has been higher in recent years.

Dollar devaluation is a political choice. And it hurts workers. In an unhampered market, money becomes more valuable as societies grow wealthier. Goods become better and more affordable. And money saved grows in value.

Under our current inflationist fiat regime, the opposite happens. Savings shrink in value by design. The result is spelled out by Saifedean Ammous in his book The Fiat Standard:

The culture of conspicuous mass consumption that pervades our planet today cannot be understood except through the distorted incentives fiat creates around consumption. With the money constantly losing its value, deferring consumption and saving will likely have a negative expected value. Finding the right investments is difficult, requires active management and supervision, and entails risk. The path of least resistance, the path permeating the entire culture of fiat society, is to consume all your income, living paycheck to paycheck.

We can see, then, how monetary policy leads to mass consumption, low savings, and hyperfinancialization—all at the same time. In fact, one of the most notable examples of the financialization of the economy since the 1970s has been the growth of the Big Three automakers’ financial arms—GM Financial, Ford Credit, and Stellantis Financial Services.

In fact, as Ryan McMaken highlights: “By the early 2000s, a majority of GM’s profits were coming from its financial operations and not from automobile production.”

In other words, the automakers have profited from the very same government policies that devalue their workers’ paychecks and savings.

But monetary policy is only one part of the story. Governments at all levels restrict the supply of housing by limiting building. That makes housing less affordable. The federal government also bids up demand for healthcare services while restricting the supply of doctors and hospitals, and it shields drug manufacturers from competition. That makes healthcare much more expensive. Meanwhile, Washington’s agricultural policy aims to prop up crop prices, which impacts the price of many foods. All this artificially drives up the cost of living.

That’s bad enough for autoworkers, but the Biden administration is also trying to force a transition to electric vehicles (EVs). For autoworkers building engines, transmissions, and exhaust systems, that’s a threat to their jobs. And because the ramp-up of EV production is driven by politics rather than consumer demand, the transition is set to hurt all workers who rely on cars.

Considering all that, it is obvious why autoworkers are frustrated with their financial situation. But unfortunately, their justified anger has been hijacked by another source of their problems, the UAW.

Support for labor unions rests on an economic myth from the mid-eighteenth century.

In short, it’s the idea that companies make profits by not paying workers the full value of their labor. Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk dismantled this socialist exploitation theory 139 years ago when he introduced time into the analysis. Companies pay workers in the present for labor services that may lead to saleable goods in the future. Because of the universal trait of time preference, the certainty of money now is often more appealing than the possibility of more money later, which is why so many people choose to sell their labor services on the job market.

Böhm-Bawerk’s insights are easy to see in auto manufacturing, where workers are paid up front to help build cars that will be sold later. Still, the flawed idea that profits signify wage theft caught on, and in 1935, autoworkers founded the UAW. The present strikes speak to the persistence of this myth.

Labor unions often appeal to worker solidarity, but in truth, they epitomize the exact opposite. Because as Murray Rothbard has shown, they can only raise wages for some workers by lowering the wages or eliminating the jobs of other workers. At the Big Three automakers, this can be seen in the heavy use of temporary and part-time workers, who are placed on a lower pay tier—the elimination of which is ironically a core demand of the UAW strike. But this situation is just what’s visible. All those who are blocked entirely from the jobs that would be available to them if not for the union remain unseen.

America’s autoworkers are right to be angry about their economic situation. But the restrictionist labor demands of the UAW are a distraction that will, at most, help some autoworkers at the expense of others. The real solution lies in ending union practices that unnecessarily pit workers against each other, ending the policies that force companies to produce things consumers don’t even want, ending the multitude of government programs and political privileges that artificially raise the cost of living, and ending the monetary system that destroys the value of workers’ paychecks and savings while propping up the financial class. Abolish all that, and the benefits will extend far beyond the auto industry.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 13:35

Ukraine Says Sevastopol HQ Strike Left Dozens Of Casualties "Including Senior Leadership"

Ukraine Says Sevastopol HQ Strike Left Dozens Of Casualties "Including Senior Leadership"

Sky News has reported that Ukraine used UK-made Storm Shadow missiles to strike and destroy Russia's Black Sea Fleet naval headquarters in Sevastopol on Friday. 

Russia conceded that one missile scored a direct hit, and videos and images confirm significant damage, but also claimed a further five were shot down by anti-air defenses. However, Ukrainian sources have said multiple missiles struck the HQ, with unverified social media images circulating which suggest at least two or multiple hit the building.

Britain and France began supplying the long-range Storm Shadows starting last spring and summer. President Biden this week belatedly approved that a limited supply of MGM-140 ATACMS missiles, with a range of up to 190 miles, will also be given to Ukraine. 

Russia in the aftermath of the Sevastopol HQ strike said that one military service member was missing, but has remained tight-lipped on details or other potential casualties. 

What's clear is that it was a very large attack, given later in the day Friday and into Saturday more and more images emerged showing the significant extent of the devastation, after fires were extinguished by a huge emergency response. 

Western analysts and pro-Kiev sources have pointed to images which appear to show more than one Storm Shadow missiles hitting Russia's Black Sea Fleet HQ...

The strike on the Russian occupiers’ Black Sea Fleet HQ in #Sevastopol that killed Admiral #Sokolov appears to have consisted of at least two bullseye hits. The building was already burning significantly as the second missile struck: pic.twitter.com/8xeu3lTf4x

— Jessica Berlin (@berlin_bridge) September 22, 2023

Another discrepancy between the emerging Russian and Ukrainian narratives concerns casualties and whether top brass was impacted. 

On Saturday Ukraine's government announced that the strike left dozens of dead and wounded, among them "senior leadership." 

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces owned up to it, revealing that the operation was dubbed "Crap Trap" and involved intelligence which placed senior commanders in the building at the time of the strikes. The Telegram statement said officers were taken out, "including the senior leadership of the fleet." But the statement didn't name names. 

Online sources are circulating claims like the following in the attack aftermath:

Sounds like a signature strike that would require five eyes national assets to pull off successfully.

Guess it was just a lucky shot tho. https://t.co/7mbXCLMv0J

— Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) September 22, 2023

The full Ukrainian military statement said the following: 

"The daring and painstaking work of the Special Operations Forces enabled them to hit the Black Sea Fleet headquarters ‘on time and with precision’ while the Russian Navy’s senior staff was meeting in the temporarily occupied city of Sevastopol."

"The data was transmitted to the Air Force for strike. The details of the attack will be revealed once it is possible. The result is dozens of dead and wounded occupiers, including the senior leadership of the fleet."

Clearly, Kiev is claiming to have pulled off not only the daring strikes inside Crimea but an extensive intelligence operation as well, given it says it had knowledge of timing of when senior leadership would be gathered inside the headquarters.

Slowed down and zoomed-in footage of the Ukrainian Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCM slamming into (and through) the roof of the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters. pic.twitter.com/c8mas1OzAg

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 22, 2023

According to a separate statement which comes from Ukrainian intelligence

Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told Voice of America that at least nine people were killed and 16 injured as a result of Kyiv’s attack on the Black Sea Fleet on Friday.

He claimed that Alexander Romanchuk, a Russian general commanding forces along the key southeastern front line, was "in a very serious condition" following the attack.

However, this has remained unverified by either the Russian side or independent reporting or observers. Al Jazeera has cited a correspondent in Moscow who describes that "both sides have remained tight-lipped about their own casualties" while "downplaying their numbers and significance and playing up the numbers and significance on the other side."

Via Planet Labs PBC/Handout/Reuters

Specifically on the Friday Sevastopol attack, the same journalist said, "Russia confirmed that a service member was killed in the attack, initially we had heard that six people were injured from media reports in the area."

Meanwhile there were overnight reports saying that Russia unleashed more major airstrike on Ukraine, in retaliation for the Black Sea Fleet HQ attack.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 14:10

Gov. Newsom Attacks Federal Judge As Child-Killing, Extremist, Right-Wing Zealot Owned By The NRA

Gov. Newsom Attacks Federal Judge As Child-Killing, Extremist, Right-Wing Zealot Owned By The NRA

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It seems that we continue to struggle with a chief executive who goes on social media to personally attack judges who have ruled against his laws or policies. No, it is not Donald Trump. This week, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) went on Twitter/X to denounce U.S. Judge Roger T. Benitez as “an extremist, right-wing zealot with no regard to [sic] human life.”

Four years ago, I wrote how Democrats were becoming more Trump-like in their attacks on judges and hyperbolic rhetoric. There is no better example than Gavin Newsom.

Many of us criticized Trump for his attacks on judges, including Judge Gonzalo Curiel over his hispanic heritage.

Trump would often savage judges for being Democrats or liberals when there were good-faith legal disagreements over his policies.

Newsom seems increasingly to be morphing into the man that he once denounced for such “toxic” rhetoric.

Benitez earned the ire of Newsom by ruling yesterday that California’s limit on high-capacity magazines violates the Second Amendment. He previously ruled against the ban in a partial stay in 2019.

There are good-faith arguments that these bans contradict Supreme Court cases on the scope and meaning of the Second Amendment. It is certainly an open question but gun-rights advocates are challenging these laws as without constitutional or historical foundation. In New York State Rifle &Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen142 S.Ct. 2111 (2022), the Supreme Court held that

[W]hen the Second Amendment’s plain text covers an individual’s conduct, the Constitution presumptively protects that conduct. To justify its regulation, . . . the government must demonstrate that the regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation. Only if a firearm regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition may a court conclude that the individual’s conduct falls outside the Second Amendment’s ‘unqualified command.’

As a lower court judge, Benitez is required to follow that precedent and, while some may see room for a contrary ruling, he wrote a lengthy opinion in Duncan v. Bonta (below) on why the California law fails under this precedent:

There is no American tradition of limiting ammunition capacity and the 10-round limit has no historical pedigree and it is arbitrary and capricious. It is extreme. Our federal government and most states impose no limits and in the states where limits are imposed, there is no consensus. Delaware landed on a 17-round magazine limit. Illinois and Vermont picked limits of 15 rounds for handguns and 10 rounds for a rifles. Colorado went with a 15-round limit for handguns and rifles, and a 28-inch tube limit for shotguns. New York tried its luck at a 7-round limit; that did not work out. New Jersey started with a 15-round limit and then reduced the limit to 10-rounds. The fact that there are so many different numerical limits demonstrates the arbitrary nature of magazine capacity limits.

Rather than attack the basis for the opinion, Newsom followed the common practice today in commentary and Congress in attacking those who hold opposing views. He posted on Twitter/X:

BREAKING: California’s high-capacity magazine ban was just STRUCK DOWN by Judge Benitez, an extremist, right-wing zealot with no regard to human life.

Wake up, America.

Our gun safety laws will continue to be thrown out by NRA-owned federal judges until we pass a Constitutional Amendment to protect our kids and end the gun violence epidemic in America.

So, rather than offer an opposing view on the historical foundations and constitutional justification for the law, Newsom called the judge a child-killing, extremist, right-wing zealot owned by the NRA.

That is not at all “toxic.”

Such trash talking is now the norm in American politics as members of Congress regularly attack journalists, whistleblowers, and others personally rather than address their underlying views. I have testified over 100 times in Congress over decades and I have never seen the degree of ad hominem attacks on witnesses by members. It is meant to not only appeal to the most extreme elements in our political system, but to chill other witnesses who may be considering testimony that a party opposes.

The attacks on judges by our political leaders are particularly chilling. I denounced it in Trump and it is no less “toxic” by Newsom. Yet, while the media universally condemned Trump in these attacks, reporters have been largely quiet or neutral in reporting the attacks by Newsom.

As for Newsom, he knows that, in the age of rage, the most rageful reigns supreme.

Here is the opinion: duncan-v-bonta-order

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 14:45

Tinder Is Now Offering $6000 Per Year "VIP" Subscription

Tinder Is Now Offering $6000 Per Year "VIP" Subscription

Dating app Tinder has a successful history of making a business of cashing in off of lonely people, charging users for advanced features and premium types of messaging over the years. This week, it was reported that the company is going to try and kick that business into hyperdrive. 

The app, which - like other dating apps - has seen its fair share of bots, escorts and spam, is now trying the novel approach of offering a $500 per month option called "Tinder Select". A subscription would amount to $6,000 per year.

The new service is going to include features like "exclusive search and matching," according to Bloomberg. The company said the option is being offered to "less than 1% of Tinder users who are among the app’s most active", though we're sure this "exclusive" waitlist will eventually expand to any desperate incel who has an extra $500 per month to pony up. 

“VIP” search, matching and conversation are several of the named services that Select will offer, with the company providing little details on the specific services. 

Tinder Chief Product Officer Mark Van Ryswyk told Bloomberg: “We know that there is a subset of highly engaged and active users who prioritize more effective and efficient ways to find connections...and so we engaged in extensive tests and feedback with this audience over the past several months to develop a completely new offering.”

Match Group President Gary Swidler said earlier this month he thinks the offering will attract “a relatively tiny amount of new payers” but that it'll make a big impact on the company's top line.

We're sure from a UX and development standpoint, the cost outlay for Match will be negligible, based on the "VIP" services they are going to offer that almost all other dating apps (including Tinder Regular) offer. 

 “We expect Tinder payer trends to improve as focus shifts from price optimizations to product & engagement. We believe the best (& perhaps only) way to turn the tide in online dating sentiment is for Tinder payers to stabilize & ultimately return to growth,” JP Morgan analysts wrote last week. 

While the firm has witnessed a slide in subscriber counts for the past three consecutive quarters, it has successfully increased its average revenue per user year-over-year, recording its most significant leap in two years, according to Bloomberg data. In its second-quarter financials revealed in August, the company surpassed revenue forecasts and elevated its projections for the next quarter, largely due to the better-than-expected performance and growth of Tinder.

Despite these milestones, the company's stock performance has remained stagnant this year, contrasting with a 13% uptick in the S&P 500 Index during the same timeframe.

With rates at 5%, we can't help but wonder how long even millionaires and billionaires say "enough" and start to think about what an extra $500 a month could get them. Hell, if they are lonely, $6000 per year is enough to pay for a trip around the world to actually meet new people...or maybe two really great nights at a Vegas strip club. Then, at least, you're actually interacting with another human in person...

But we digress...

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 15:20

Lies, Damn Lies, And The Sierra Club

Lies, Damn Lies, And The Sierra Club

Authored by Tucker Davis via RealClear Wire,

Recently, the Sierra Club has been spreading a blatantly false narrative that the rolling blackouts experienced during Winter Storm Elliott in Kentucky on December 23 were the result of the failure of coal-fired generating units to meet demand. Nothing could be further from the truth.

In reality, it was the region’s remaining coal-fired power generation fleet that ramped up to meet the demand during the deep freeze that engulfed the region in December.

Yes, Kentucky-based combined utilities, LG&E and KU, were forced to institute rolling blackouts from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on the evening of December 23. But it wasn’t due to the failure of our coal-fired generation capacity. In fact, during these rolling blackouts, their combined coal units — totaling 5,100 MW of capacity — operated at a collective capacity factor of 90% and provided more than 70% of the energy required to keep our electric grid from complete failure. Had it not been for our coal plants, it is likely the entire grid would have collapsed at the very time when it was needed the most to provide the heat on which Kentucky lives were depending.

This is exactly why the Kentucky Coal Association opposes the closure of any more of our remaining coal generation units, as has been requested by LG&E and KU. Electric reliability is such a critical issue; it should not be sacrificed for political considerations.

If the 1,500 MW of coal units the companies have requested approval to retire had not been available during the critical time on December 23 undoubtedly the power outage would have been much worse, and lives would have been lost. Is this what we want? Is this what Kentucky wants? Is this what Americans want?

Are you willing to gamble the lives of your loved ones on the Ponzi scheme that is renewable energy? Are you willing to accept the empty, proven false promises of the “Big Green Money Machine?”

Coal-fired power generation is a proven technology. For generations, it has met the demands of the growing economic powerhouse that was America, with no problems and without calls for rolling blackouts. Through any weather, the coal trains rolled, each train delivering 10,000 tons of reliable, affordable coal to power plants across the country.

The reality is simple and easy to see… only when the green lobby and their friends in Washington began their relentless assault on coal generation — closing thousands of MW of coal-fired power plants and replacing them with solar and wind generation — did these problems begin, and they get worse with each passing day.

Apparently, the Sierra Club lives in some weird Orwellian world where up is down and left is right, where “reality” is whatever they decide it to be. Fortunately, most people don’t live in that world. We live in a world bounded by objective reality — a world where people need reliable energy, not fairy dust and pixie sprinkles. And we don’t appreciate blatant lies.

However, one thing this did accomplish — it laid bare the contempt for the average American that the Sierra Club holds. It clearly shows they believe they can pull the wool over the eyes of American families.

Everyday, thousands of folks working in the mining industry roll up their sleeves and work hard to benefit all of Kentucky – yes, even those who wish to destroy their businesses. Even the members of the Sierra Club, the industry’s most ardent opposition, benefit greatly from reliable and affordable electricity. Those folks will never acknowledge the many communities that are given good wages, stability, and economic growth all from coal. Energy policy is not just about vague hopes and dreams of a “green future”, its real lives and real jobs. 

So, once again this past winter, coal kept the lights on for the people of Kentucky. Coal will keep us safe and warm whether we see the worst snow storms on record, or a mild flurry. And remember, the coal units set to retire provided one-third of the coal generation that kept our power grid from complete and total failure.

Tucker Davis is President of the Kentucky Coal Association. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 15:55

Murdered Ecuadorian Cartel Boss Buried With "Hundreds" Of Pistols, Shotguns And Rifles

Murdered Ecuadorian Cartel Boss Buried With "Hundreds" Of Pistols, Shotguns And Rifles

Here's a story straight out of a "trigger warning" scenario for Vice President Kamala Harris' new federal office of gun violence prevention: a murdered Ecuadorian cartel boss known as “El Fatal” has been buried with hundreds of guns in his coffin this past week, the NY Post reported

Surrounded by hundreds of pistols, shotguns and rifles, the 39 year old was the leader of  “Los Fatales”. He was getting a car wash last week when he was "suddenly ambushed by gunmen" and killed, along with his 20 year old daughter who was with him.

The murder was blamed on rival gang, the report says. 

After the murder, the cartel leader, Julian Sevillano's family refused to let the local police take the body. The family took the remains and planned a "massive funeral" for the next day, the report says. 

At the funeral, photos were taken of Sevillano in an open casket that people rushed to fill with weapons so that the boss could be “armed to the teeth in the afterlife and could defend himself.”

The rival gang responsible for his death had tracked his movements ahead of time, the report says. “It seems that they had followed his movements, Julián always came to wash the car in the morning, his enemies took advantage of that,” one local resident told the news. 

The murder may have been to "settle scores" for previous crimes committed by Sevillano.

Who knew cartel rivalries extended to the afterlife?

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 16:30

Republicans Embrace Ballot Harvesting for 2024, Some Foresee Legal Battles

Republicans Embrace Ballot Harvesting for 2024, Some Foresee Legal Battles

Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

After years of condemning ballot harvesting and early voting, Republicans are switching course for 2024 and embracing both policies wholeheartedly. The results, experts say, can bear good and bad consequences. Some foresee legal challenges.

"Ballot harvesting" is a practice where third-party individuals or organizations collect completed mail-in ballots and deliver them to election officials on a voter's behalf.

Filing boxes sit off to the side at an absentee ballot processing room at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Ga., on Nov. 2, 2020. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

Hans von Spakovsky—Election Law Reform Initiative Manager and Senior Fellow at The Heritage—prefers to call the practice "Ballot Trafficking."

"You play by the rules that are in place wherever you are but that doesn't mean that you allow the status quo to stay that way," Mr. von Spakovsky told The Epoch Times.

He also suggested that the GOP's decision to play the ballot harvesting game should not stop voters from trying to convince their state legislators "to change the rules to get rid of ballot trafficking and allowing third-party strangers to go pick up a voter's ballot because the risks in allowing that are too great."

Heritage Foundation Election Law Reform Initiative Hans von Spakovsk at a Washington, D.C. event in October 2017. (Benjamin Chasteen/The Epoch Times)

"I don't see anything wrong with taking advantage of the rule if that's the rule in place but you should try to continue to change it," he said.

Since 1988, The Heritage Foundation's Election Fraud Database has documented over 200 cases of proven fraudulent use of absentee ballots. The largest number of confirmed mail-in ballot fraud cases, 36, occurred in 2022.

Ultimately, Mr. von Spakovsky isn't convinced that having both sides harvesting ballots will give either party an advantage.

"If one party takes advantage of the rules like that and the other doesn't then it might give that party a step up," he said. "But if both parties are taking advantage, I'm not quite sure how it would benefit one party or the other."

Chasing Ballots

By joining the ballot harvesting game in 2024, Sharon Demers sees the potential for both bad and good outcomes.

For the bad, she fears that, just as Republicans have spent years investigating and suing over alleged cases of voter fraud by Democrat operatives, Democrats will do the same. This, she warns, will cause the ever-lengthening election cycle to be followed by an equally protracted litigation season.

For the good, she believes it will help lead to victories that were lost simply because they didn't keep up with Democrats.

Ms. Demers, a Republican state committeewoman for Flagler County, noted that ballot harvesting is banned in the Sunshine State.

Sharon Demers, Republican State Committee Woman for Flagler County, drops her ballot in a drop box during the 2022 midterm elections in Flagler County, Florida (Courtesy of Susan Demers).

"You can knock on someone's door and encourage them to return their vote-by-mail ballot but they can't collect those ballots in Florida and deliver them to the Supervisor of Elections or a drop box," Ms. Demers explained.

"But if another state allows them to do this, we should do it. If it's legal," she said. "But if it's not legal Republicans shouldn't do it."

She also advised that Florida is open to what is called "chasing ballots."

Democrats are already chasing ballots, too.

According to NGP VAN, "the leading technology provider to Democratic and progressive campaigns," "ballot chasing" is a campaign to encourage voters to take advantage of their state's early voting schedule in order to "bank votes early" during an election cycle. Organizers can use voter rolls to locate electors who live near early voting locations. By way of phone banks, canvassing, or other outreach programs, organizers can encourage them to get out and cast their ballots.

As Ms. Demers noted, Democrats are known for their well-organized efforts of deploying organizers to pick people up in buses and vans to physically drive them to the polls.

"Those are things Republicans have been lazy about in some areas of the country, not getting out the vote and driving the vote, especially with the young people," she said, noting how younger voters get most of their information from social media.

"They aren't involved in politics and that's a group Republicans in general have ignored," she said.

'We Don't Have a Choice'

As founder of the America First P.A.C.T., Corey Gibson hopes to energize the youth the GOP has ignored.

"We have two choices," he told The Epoch Times. "Either we participate or we allow Democrats to thrive and win elections because they are ballot harvesting and we're not."

As Mr. Gibson told The Epoch Times in June, he has already assembled an "army of social media influencers."

"We're the first national ballot harvesting project," he said.

While also concerned that the GOP's new ballot harvesting endeavor could become "a legal vortex of doom," he said "the only thing we can do as conservatives is to pursue this in the most honest and transparent way possible so it's hard to look at our efforts and find shady business that makes it indefensible.

"The only other choice is to allow Democrats to take advantage of this tool and not participate out of stubbornness."

However, just as Mr. von Spakovsky suggested, Mr. Gibson said, "We want to ballot harvest until we can make it illegal to ballot harvest."

"The goal of conservatives is to have free and fair elections. Full stop. Period," he explained, saying conservatives "would rather lose an election fairly than to win by cheating."

"It's time for us to figure out if we want to win elections fairly or sit back and lose just because we're too stubborn and keep saying we don't believe in ballot harvesting," he said.

Mr. Gibson's greatest wish right now is that "the party structure would allow for a more unified, strategic approach on anything," because right now, "it's a hodge-podge of disagreeing tribes."

"For this to truly be effective," he said the GOP must have "good strategic leadership to initiate these programs."

'That's something Democrats do well that we don't," he said.

'It Will Be Very Messy'

Richard Frederick is the State Chair for RETHINK! GOP, an organization dedicated to "empowering voters through ballot harvesting, early voting programs and education."

For the past six or seven months he's been on the phone with voters from California to Nevada who are confused by the GOP's sudden switch to advocating practices they've condemned for years.

For years we had top people in the GOP screaming that 'this was illegal, you shouldn't be doing it, and the Democrats are doing things that are fraudulent,'" Mr. Frederick told The Epoch Times. "Now they're flipping and saying you have to vote early, you have to ballot harvest. So it's been very confusing to their voters."

Curiously though, he also says most of the voters he speaks with never understood why the GOP was so opposed to those practices in the first place.

"They never saw it as illegal. You had Trump, DeSantis, McDaniel, and other public figures saying it's illegal, and it wasn't illegal," he said. "Here in Nevada, we lost a ton of seats because of that. The Party shot themselves in the foot and the Democrats sat back and loved every minute of it because they knew they didn't have to worry about Republicans ballot harvesting."

Mr. Frederick then recalled how the GOP's opposition to early voting also cost Republicans in Nevada because the day before election day in 2020, they got "about a foot of snow."

"Most people didn't go out and vote. So all of those Democrats who mailed in their votes had the jump on everybody," he said.

He also believes the GOP will likely face endless lawsuits after "election season" simply because they aren't experienced with ballot harvesting.

While organizations like RETHINK! GOP, Turning Point USA, and American Majority "are moving forward with this on their own," he doesn't believe the GOP as an entity "will actuality do the things that need to be done simply because they don't know how."

"What will follow will be messy. It will be very messy, and it will drag on," he predicted. "While we were complaining that it took 45 days to get results in some states after the 2020 election, I think this time around it's going to be even longer.

By the Numbers

The National Conference of State Legislators shows that 31 states authorize someone other than the voter to return a ballot for them.

Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and West Virginia have essentially banned ballot harvesting in their states by limiting the number of ballots an individual may deliver on a voter's behalf. Florida and Louisiana only allow a family member to deliver a ballot on a voter's behalf. Oklahoma "prohibits ballot harvesting entirely.

Six months ahead of the November 2020 election, a Gallop poll showed that 64 percent of Americans favored the idea of mail-in ballots. Stark differences, however, were seen among voters according to their political affiliation. While 83 percent of Democrats expressed support for mail-in ballots only 40 percent of Republicans expressed the same sentiment. Among independents, 68 showed support.

Polling conducted by the Honest Elections Project in July and provided exclusively to The Federalist showed that 76 percent of voters surveyed believe “voting in person is better than voting by mail.” A majority, 73 percent, also “reject automatically sending ballots without a voter’s request,” and 74 percent said ballot harvesting “should be illegal.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/23/2023 - 17:05

UK Backtracks On Key Green Policies

UK Backtracks On Key Green Policies

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

The UK government announced this week a new approach to achieving the net-zero 2050 target, softening some of the key policies as the cost-of-living crisis is at its worst in a generation and a general election is looming next year.  

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delayed a ban on gasoline and diesel cars by five years and scrapped policies to force homeowners to make expensive energy efficiency upgrades. The UK’s target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 remains intact, but not at “unacceptable costs” for families, Sunak said in a speech at Downing Street on Wednesday.  

While the 2050 net-zero target stays, some intermediate targets, and some policies were either delayed or scrapped as UK residents (and voters) are trying to cope with a cost-of-living crisis with food and energy prices soaring while Sunak’s Conservative Party is trailing Labour in the polls by some 20 percentage points.

Sunak said the UK needs to change the debate on how to achieve net zero—from two extremes now to a more realistic debate.

“This debate needs more clarity, not more emotion,” he said.

“We’ll now have a more pragmatic, proportionate, and realistic approach that eases the burdens on families,” the PM said.

One of the most specific policy changes is a delay of a ban on the sale of new gasoline and diesel passenger cars—from 2030 to 2035.

The UK raised the cash grants for replacing gas boilers under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme by 50% to $9,210 (£7,500), but “We’ll never force anyone to rip out their existing boiler and replace it with a heat pump,” Sunak said.

The government will not force any homeowner to make expensive upgrades to increase the energy efficiency of their homes, either.  

The PM also confirmed that his government would “not ban new oil and gas in the North Sea, which would simply leave us reliant on expensive, imported energy from foreign dictators like Putin.”

Energy industry associations expressed concern that the shift in policies would further damage the UK’s competitiveness in attracting investments in green technologies. Carmakers overall had a mixed reaction, with some welcoming the delay of the gasoline and diesel ban to 2035 and others criticizing the government for the lack of consistency.

Ford UK, for example, said that “the UK 2030 target is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future.”

“Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three,” said Lisa Brankin, Ford UK Chair.

Stellantis said that “clarity and reasonable anticipation are important,” while Volkswagen Group UK noted that “Regardless of the policy adjustments announced today, we urgently need a clear and reliable regulatory framework which creates market certainty and consumer confidence, including binding targets for infrastructure rollout and incentives to ensure the direction of travel.”

Simon Williams, head of policy at the UK’s motoring organization RAC, described the delayed ban as “disappointing” and said, “pushing back the ban from 2030 to 2035 risks slowing down both the momentum the motor industry has built up in switching to electric powertrains and ultimately the uptake of electric vehicles.”

Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive at the trade association for the UK energy industry, Energy UK, commented on the shift in net-zero policies,

“It’s strange to cite our world-leading progress in reducing emissions and developing low-carbon technologies and then decide that is a reason for slowing down, and risk surrendering that position and those opportunities to other countries.”

“The Prime Minister also talked about the cost to households but it can’t be emphasised enough that what has hit people in the pocket hard over the last 18 months – through record energy bills, the resulting effect on inflation and the cost-of-living – has been the cost of oil and gas. By slowing efforts to reduce our dependency, we do leave our economy and our people at the mercy of volatile expensive fossil fuels for longer,” Pinchbeck added.

RenewableUK association’s chief executive Dan McGrail said,

“Today’s announcements will undoubtedly knock investor confidence, as many green technology leaders are now nervous about the increasing uncertainty around net zero policies in the UK.”     

“The Government is going to have to outline clear measures to restore market confidence in the Autumn Statement, not least to ensure that we can compete against the USA, Europe and China for investment at a time when the global race to build new renewable energy projects has never been more intense,” McGrail noted.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 03:30

The Countries Pledging The Most Aid & Arms To Ukraine

The Countries Pledging The Most Aid & Arms To Ukraine

On Wednesday, amid a diplomatic dispute over Ukrainian grain exports, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Poland is “no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons”.

A government spokesman clarified on Thursday that the country would continue "providing supplies of ammunition and armaments that had previously been agreed to".

As Statista's Martin Armstrong shows in the following infographic, using data from the Ukraine Support Tracker by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Poland has been one of Ukraine's most important military aid partners since the war began.

In a boost for Kyiv, Ukraine President Zelensky welcomed the news on Thursday that its largest military aid donor, the United States, had committed to sending a further $325 million.

Infographic: The Countries Pledging the Most Military Aid to Ukraine | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Looking at pledges of military aid to Ukraine between January 24, 2022 and July 31, 2023, the U.S. government committed a total of €42.1 billion.

In relative terms, however, this military aid commitment amounts to approximately 0.2 percent of U.S. GDP. Looking at this metric, Ukraine's smaller neighbors have, relatively, contributed more to the war effort: For example Estonia (1.3 percent of GDP) or Lithuania (1.2 percent). Poland's military aid commitments have been equivalent to 0.5 percent of its GDP.

Additionally, as the chart below shows, thanks chiefly to the €77.1 billion in pledged financial aid, European Union institutions are the largest aid donors to Ukraine. This is based on data from the IfW Kiel Ukraine Support Tracker which currently covers the period January 24, 2022 to July 31, 2023.

Infographic: The Countries Committing the Most Aid to Ukraine | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Ukraine's largest military aid partner since the start of the war, the United States, has committed a total of €69.5 billion in aid when also considering financial and humanitarian support.

Germany, the United Kingdom and Norway have been the next most significant pledgers of aid.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 04:15

"A New Era Of Gold": Estimated World Official Gold Holdings Reach Record High

"A New Era Of Gold": Estimated World Official Gold Holdings Reach Record High

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins

My estimation of global official gold reserves hit 38,764 tonnes in Q2 2023, breaking its previous record from 1965. The new high confirms the world has entered a new era of gold. Central banks will continue to accumulate gold and the metal’s role in the international monetary system will increase to the detriment of the US dollar.

The new record in world gold reserves reflects a desire by central banks the world over to diversify away from the US dollar with its ever more evident counterparty risks.

Analysts widely use the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculation for total official gold holdings, though what is usually overlooked is that this number is an estimate by the Fund. As mentioned in my previous article on the official gold reserves of China, not every central bank is transparent about its gold holdings. The Chinese central bank (PBoC) reports to have 2,113 tonnes, while it’s an open secret in the gold industry the PBoC owns much more than that—about 5,000 tonnes, according to my analysis. Another example, the central bank of Syria stopped reporting its gold holdings in 2011. For its computation of world holdings, the IMF carries forward the last known data point, assuming Syria still holds 26 tonnes.

My personal evaluation of global official gold reserves is largely based on how the IMF compiles its world series, the main difference being “unreported purchases” traced by industry insiders that I include in my data. My approach:

  • The base consists of the the last registered volumes from all central banks and monetary authorities, also of the ones that stopped reporting years ago.
  • For China I use my own numbers going back to 1995.
  • Unreported purchases by central banks other than the PBoC are added, measured by the difference between the World Gold Council’s estimated total purchases based on field research and reported changes by all central banks combined.
  • Known reserves by sovereign wealth funds are included*.
  • Gold owned by international financial intuitions such as the European Central Bank and West African Economic and Monetary Union is also added.
  • Swaps on the balance sheets of the Turkish central bank and Bank for International Settlements (BIS) are subtracted.

Based on my methodology, world official gold holdings reached 38,764 tonnes in June 2023, which is approximately 400 tonnes more than the prior high set in 1965 at 38,347 tonnes.

Chart 1.

The new record reflects a desire by central banks the world over to diversify away from the US dollar with its ever more evident counterparty risks. Central banks’ turning point in gold holdings came just after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, since when they have bought more than 7,000 tonnes.

The value of global gold reserves grew by 66% from that moment, while foreign exchange reserves have swelled by 30%. As a result, gold’s share of global international reserves (gold and foreign exchange) is rising from an all-time low in 2015.

Chart 2.

There is plenty of upside for the gold price if gold’s share of total reserves (currently 17%) should ever come close to its long-term average (58%). In a previous article I speculated gold could reach $8,000 in the next ten years.

In context of increasing geopolitical tensions, a weaponized dollar, and sky-high debt levels across the globe (historically alleviated through inflation), central banks will continue to buy gold in the foreseeable future.

The new record in gold reserves is mostly a symbolic milestone. Any trends I describe haven’t been altered but reconfirmed by the new high.

Foreign central banks mostly own US government bonds (Treasuries) as dollar assets. As their gold reserves are rising, their nominal holdings of Treasuries have been roughly flat in the past decade. So, against massive increases in US public debt every year, the share of foreign central banks owning that debt is steadily decreasing. This dynamic could lead to a funding crisis in the US, further eroding the dollar’s appeal as a reserve currency.

Chart 3.

*It’s unknown how the IMF exactly calculates its world series, but I suspect they don’t include gold owned by sovereign wealth funds. My figures include about 100 tonnes for such funds.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 05:00

"Our System Is Collapsing In Real Time": Tucker Carlson Gives Bombshell Interview

"Our System Is Collapsing In Real Time": Tucker Carlson Gives Bombshell Interview

Authored by Urs Gehriger via WeltWoche.ch,

“They’re all afraid”

Tucker Carlson is unstoppable. Since his sudden departure from Fox News he scores record viewer ratings. In an exclusive interview with Weltwoche, the political media star demolishes the mainstream media’s manipulation machine, reveals his concerns about a potential Donald Trump Restoration, he speaks about the disturbing state of the Biden family and discusses what’s next for him in a Post-Fox News Order.

When Tucker Carlson departed the Fox News Channel in April, his enemies cheered. But if they thought the happy warrior had finally been defeated, their judgment was as dismal as their approval ratings. With an assist from Elon Musk, Carlson is reaching an even larger, global audience with his new show, “Tucker Carlson on Twitter (now known as ‘X’).”

The veteran newscaster has expanded his mission: to defeat the mainstream media’s suffocating bias and incuriosity not just about critical events at home but in capitals around the world.

When we reach him, Carlson has just returned from the United Arab Emirates where he met with its president, Mohamed bin Zayed. Carlson pronounces the sheikh “the most interesting, wisest leader I've ever spoken to” — a provocative assessment given that the talk show host sat across from Donald J. Trump last month. Of the Arab leader, Carlson enthuses, “I've never met a more humble leader, ever — and I believe humility is a prerequisite for wisdom.”

Carlson is far less kind about his colleagues in the press. “They're all fearful people,” the 54-year-old scoffs. Instead of holding the powerful to account, “they do exactly the opposite.”  Indeed, “they do their bidding.”

Looking ahead to the Presidential elections in 2024, he says: “They're trying to put Trump in prison for the crime of running against Joe Biden … That's what this election's about. Are we going to allow that, or aren't we? And I just don't think we can.”

 Weltwoche: Since leaving Fox and going solo with your new show, “Tucker Carlson On Twitter (now known as ‘X’),” your posts have logged tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of views. You’re taking off like Buzz Lightyear. Are you feeling the freedom? To explore more topics and ideas? To express your views?

Tucker Carlson: Well, definitely. If anything, I've expressed my views less. I haven't done many straight-to-camera scripts where I write the script and give my opinion. I've done what I've wanted to do for a long time but couldn't, which is get on an airplane and go see the rest of the world. I couldn't because I had a daily show I had to do.

I've become convinced over the past several years — particularly since the war in Ukraine began — that the world is changing much more quickly than most Americans understand. And because there's virtually no coverage of the rest of the world in American media, Americans don't have a good sense of it.

What we, in this country, refer to as the "Post-War Order” — the institutions set up in the wake of World War II to keep the world peaceful and prosperous and the United States at the top of the pyramid, and that would include the dominance of the dollar, the SWIFT system, NATO — all of that appears to me to be crumbling. That's my view of it. I've wanted to travel and see if that is, in fact, happening — and it is.

Weltwoche: You travel the world, now, more than ever. What personality, globally, fascinates you in particular?

Carlson: I think, right now, the most interesting, wisest leader I've ever spoken to is the ruler of Abu Dhabi, MBZ. [Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, popularly known by his initials as MBZ, is president of the United Arab Emirates and the ruler of Abu Dhabi.]  I respect [him].

Weltwoche: You have just flown back to the US from Abu Dhabi?

Carlson: Yes, and I spoke to him. I've interviewed a lot of people who run countries or organizations. I've interviewed a lot of leaders in, well, thirty years. That's been my job. And I've never interviewed anybody in charge of anything [who is] more willing to admit when he doesn't understand something or have any answer to a question. I've never met a more humble leader, ever, and I believe humility is a prerequisite for wisdom.

Wise people admit what they don't know, and I've never seen that before. You don't see that in the West. You're not going to interview a presidential candidate in the United States, or a president, for that matter, who's willing to say, “I don't know the answer. I've thought about it, and I'm not sure.” They'll never say that, because you can't admit you don't know.

Of course, the scope of human knowledge is very limited. We don't know anything, actually. We don't know how the brain works or how the pyramids were built. The list of things we don't know is far longer than the list of things we do, and no one will admit that. The people who do, who are willing to say that out loud, are the ones who I trust. So, I was very impressed. I've never been more impressed by a leader.

But there are a lot of interesting people from around the world. Javier Milei, I thought, was an interesting guy. [Javier Gerardo Milei is an Argentine economist and politician known for his libertarian views.  He is leading in the polls for the next presidential election.]

Weltwoche: Let’s have a brief look back to your many years with Fox where you became a global media star, ranking number one with “Tucker Carlson Tonight” on cable news. During a recent episode of your show on “X,” you said: “The Murdochs never got in my way. They were always good to me.  But there were always small minded. … It’s a company run by fearful women, you know what I mean?”  What do you mean?

Carlson: Well, I spent fourteen years at Fox and, most of the time, I was working on my own business. I had no role in managing the company — far from it. I was just an employee. So, there are a lot of things about how the company runs that I wouldn't know about.

In my experience, the family that owns, that controls the company, the Murdochs, were always very gentlemanly to me. Very polite, nice, gave me huge latitude. I often, or sometimes, felt that they disagreed with what I was saying, that my views were different from theirs. But they let me express my views, and I was grateful for that. I am grateful for that. I never had a problem with them, and I don't have a problem with them, now. I'd disagree with them on certain things, but I'll always be grateful for the chances they gave me and the kindness they showed to me.

There are a lot of great people at Fox News, but there are also a lot of people who are just terrified, who are just trying to make it through the day. And I don't think they make Xanax strong enough for some of the people who run the place to calm down. [laughter]

I meant what I said. I've worked at a lot of news organizations in the United States, and they're all the same. They're all afraid of getting sued or yelled at or fired or humiliated. But interestingly, none of them are very afraid of getting things wrong. That's not a concern. They're not worried about accuracy as much as they're worried about being unfashionable or saying something forbidden. What they're really worried about is telling the truth.

You'd think that if you ran a news organization, your main concern would be getting it right and that you'd be terrified if someone would make a mistake. But that's not their top concern. And not just at Fox. I worked at MSNBC and CNN. I worked at PBS. I spent a year working at ABC. I've certainly been around a lot of news companies, and they're all the same. They're all fearful people who are making more than they probably should be, and they're worried about losing their jobs. Occasionally, you'll find a courageous person, but they are very, very, very rare. Very rare.

Weltwoche: The media as the “fourth estate” has a serious credibility problem, not just in the US. Here, it's the same. The only national news organization in the US that scores the majority of the public's trust is, according to YouGov [May 2023], The Weather Channel.

Carlson: Yes.

Weltwoche: Half of the American public believes that the news media deliberately attempts to mislead, misinform, and propagandize [Gallup, February 2023]. You've been in the news for so long. Why is the state of the media so miserable?

Carlson: Well, because if you want to subvert a democracy, you need to control the information that citizens receive. I'd argue that the news media in democracies is far less trustworthy than it is in other countries simply because it matters more in a democracy. People vote on the basis of the information they have. So, if you want to control their votes, you have to control what they know.

There has been a very aggressive attempt, over a number of decades on the part of the people who run the United States, to control what's available on our news stations and in our newspapers — to control the news media. And they have.

Weltwoche: The people working for news media seem to go along with it.

Carlson: Of course they do, because they're terrified. They're just afraid. They go along with it, absolutely. They're afraid to say something that will offend the people who run the government, who run the biggest companies and, most of the time, they won't. And that's not just a perversion of what they should be doing, it's an inversion. They exist to hold the people in power accountable. Instead, they do exactly the opposite. They do their bidding.

For example, they roll out this vaccine in the United States. It has massive consequences for the population. Hundreds of millions of people take it, and no reporting on that vaccine – no real reporting — is allowed. People are, literally, fired from their jobs if they'd question the efficacy and the safety of that vaccine. That's insane. In a functioning democracy, if you had a mandatory drug where everyone's required to take it, the news media’s job would be to report out whether or not it's safe and whether or not it works. They did just the opposite.

Even the war in Ukraine. This is potentially a nuclear conflict between superpowers. Shouldn't we know all that we can? “No.” You're not allowed.

I tried to interview Vladimir Putin, and the US government stopped me. So, think about that for a minute. By the way, nobody defended me. I don't think there was anybody in the news media who said, “Wait a second. I may not like this guy, but he has a right to interview anyone he wants, and we have a right to hear what Putin says.” You're not allowed to hear Putin's voice. Because why? There was no vote on it. No one asked me. I'm 54 years old. I've paid my taxes and followed the law.

I'm an American citizen. I'm a much more loyal American than, say, Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, who didn't even grow up in this country; she grew up in Canada. And they're telling me what it is to be a loyal American? I'm just not even interested, at this point. I don't even care. When David Frum [a staff writer for The Atlantic magazine] from Canada gets to tell me that I'm a disloyal American, it's a joke. It's a joke. And I don't care what they think, actually, anymore. And I don't have to care. So, I don't.

 Weltwoche: The high ratings your show is getting demonstrate that you raise a voice that people want to hear. One such example of media manipulation is the media suppression and dismissal of Hunter Biden's laptop. You have studied the infamous “laptop from hell.” So have we, at Weltwoche, since the spring of last year. You have profound knowledge about the Biden business network. You were the first to interview the Biden business insider, Tony Bobulinski, in October 2020. From what you have seen, would you conclude that Joe Biden knew about his son's business? That he facilitated it? And that he might have profited, himself?

Carlson: Well, those aren't opinions. That's factually established. We interviewed Devon Archer [Hunter Biden’s longtime close business partner and friend] last month, who, on dozens of occasions at business meetings, watched Joe Biden call his son Hunter during a business meeting. His son put him on speakerphone while Joe Biden was vice president of the United States in order to help his son's business. By the way, the business, the so-called “business,” consisted wholly of being Joe Biden's son. Hunter Biden had no expertise in energy. He knew nothing about Ukrainian gas. It's a joke that he didn't know. He had no relevant experience in, or knowledge of, any of the so-called “businesses” he ran.

He was purely selling access to his father. It's not speculation. That's what his business partner said, on the record, on camera. Yes, there's no debate about that. That's a fact.

I guess the media hate Trump so much or are profiting in some way, I suppose, from Joe Biden being president that they feel they'd have to lie about it. But they're lying, period.

Weltwoche: Another story that has raised zero curiosity among the DC press is the allegation, reportedly made by his own daughter, Ashley, in her private diary, that Joe Biden may have behaved toward her in a way that she describes as "probably not appropriate" when she was a young girl. Hunter gave his dad the alias "Pedo Peter" in his cell phone contact list. I assume that in America "Pedo Peter" is an unusual term of address for one's father. Why has the press shown so little interest in investigating these disturbing details, especially in the post-#MeToo era?

Carlson: Well, [Ashley] said it in her diary, whose only audience was herself. She didn't allege it. She recorded it: that her father took showers with her as a child and, because he did, she became a sex addict. That's what she wrote in her diary. The response from the Biden administration was to get the Department of Justice to raid the home of the man who had the diary, arrest the people who had the diary though they didn't steal it, they paid for it. Ashley Biden left it behind in a house she'd been renting, and they never said anything about it.

That's a sex crime. I have three daughters. I can promise you it's not normal for a father to shower with his daughters. [Ashley] said, in her diary, “I think I have a sex addiction because my father showered with me.” That's what she says.

By the way, Joe Biden has dementia and is not running the United States. So, that raises the obvious question: “Who is?”

Weltwoche: Who is?

Carlson: I would assume Barack Obama through his cutouts who work for Joe Biden. But I don't know that. The New York Times hasn't bothered to report on it, but Joe Biden has dementia. He's not capable of speaking a complete sentence much less running the largest organization in human history, which is the US government. The whole premise is ridiculous, and now they're telling us? He's 80 years old. He can barely speak. He can barely walk. And he's going to run, again, for president of the United States while there's a war going on? The whole thing is so demented that we're moving to the point where they're not trying to convince anybody. They're just trying to suppress and arrest people who ask questions. They've arrested dozens of people, of political opponents, not for committing crimes, but for opposing them in the past month. Dozens in the past month.

Our system is collapsing in real time. We're watching this happen. If you read the American media, it's stories about Kim Kardashian and lots of irrelevant crap about trannies and all this stuff. The bottom line is the president of the United States is non compos mentis.

Who is running the government? If you can't answer that question, you're not doing your job in the media, it would seem to me. Whatever.

Weltwoche: You landed a great scoop with your interview with former President Donald Trump, which went on the air just as the Republican candidates were holding their first debate on your previous channel, Fox. Back in 2018, when you and I first met for an interview, Trump had been in office for almost two years. And you told me your assessment that, at that juncture, "Trump is not capable"as US president. You referenced the border — he didn't build the wall enough — as an example. If Trump succeeds in making a triumphant return to the White House, do you think he can be effective?

Carlson: No. Of course, I don't know. I'd merely be speculating. I think his first term as president proved it's pretty hard to run an organization, millions of people, when most of them are paid to oppose you, which they are. There are unionized federal employees whose jobs depend on the other party. So, the system, itself, is pretty difficult for someone who seeks to reform the system.

At this point, however, they're trying to put Trump in prison for the crime of running against Joe Biden. I'm just speaking in my capacity as a voter. That's all I need to know.

Do I think if Trump were to take over, tomorrow, that he would make the CIA accountable to voters? No, I don't. Do I think he'd build a wall? I don't know. I hope so.

I know that you cannot allow, you absolutely cannot allow a political party to use our system of justice to imprison the president's chief opponent. You can't do that. That's just absolutely not allowed.

From my perspective, that's what this election's about. Are we going to allow that, or aren't we? And I just don't think we can.

Weltwoche: Your fellow journalists can't stop criticizing you. They call your reporting "pro-Russian" or “pro-Trump.” Recently, you took a lot of heat for your Larry Sinclair interview where he talked about [conducting] an alleged gay affair with Barack Obama. [Sinclair, a convicted con artist, claims that he saw former United States President Barack Obama smoking crack before engaging in sexual activities with him in 1999 when Obama was a state senator.] While it’s true that his claims were never pursued by an Obama-besotted press, are you concerned that the one-on-one, interview format of your online show limits your ability to fully investigate the truth of your guests’ claims of fact?  

Carlson: Oh, sure, of course. I've been doing one-on-one interviews on television for 25 years.

Weltwoche: You had a big team at the time when you did those interviews.

Carlson: Well, they still work for me. I have the same team. [laughs] Yes, I have exactly the same team. In fact, they're coming over for dinner in just a minute.

I think Larry Sinclair has been attacked. He was arrested, at one point. He was dismissed as “non-credible.” This has been going on for fifteen years. People have been attacking Larry Sinclair or dismissing him. My view was, “I'm the balance, I guess. Why don't we get to hear from Larry Sinclair? Okay, here's Larry Sinclair. You can make up your own mind as to what you think about him.”

In other words, liars, proven liars like Ben Smith, at Politico at the time, were able to get out there and tell us that everything Larry Sinclair said was false.   Okay, that's Ben Smith's position. Here's Larry Sinclair's position. It seems like I'm the balance, as far as I'm concerned. Does that make sense?

Weltwoche: Some critics ask, “Is airing Larry Sinclair’s personal recollections any different from Christine Blasey Ford’s accusations against Brent Kavanaugh?”

Carlson: Well, it's very different. I think it's different in its particulars. It's very different. But I also think Larry Sinclair has the right to… Larry Sinclair, in my view, in a very credible way, said he had sex with Barack Obama. Since we're so fanatically pro-gay, now, and everything gay is good, why is that bad? “Obama likes dudes.” Why is that an attack on Obama? Do you know what I mean? Like, am I the only non-homophobe, here?

It seems obvious to me that Obama likes dudes. He told his girlfriend that. Alex McNear [who was romantically involved with Obama during his brief time at Occidental College] is a distant cousin of mine, by the way. And Obama told her, “I fantasize about having sex with men.” I guess it's a little strange to think that saying that out loud is somehow an attack. I don't know why it would be. I thought we're supposed to like dudes. [laughs] I can't keep up.

Weltwoche: Tucker, you've made a remarkable journey. Over the years, you've changed your mind about big issues, important issues, like the invasion of Iraq.

Carlson: Oh, yes.

Weltwoche: And you went public about it. Very few journalists are willing to admit to a typo, let alone make a serious course correction.  Is there an issue, right now, that you’re reconsidering, taking a second look at?  A previously held position that is currently under review?

Carlson: Oh, I changed my mind like every issue. [laughs] I'm constantly changing my mind about things. Constantly. Gosh, there are a lot of issues that I'm not sure I fully understand. [Artificial Intelligence], for example. I'm very worried that AI's going to destroy the world and become autonomous. But will it? I don't know. I guess, other than a gut-level concern, I don't have a very smart view of AI.

There are lots of issues, like that, that I'm trying to figure out. Thankfully, I don't have to have an opinion on everything. I'm old enough that I'm happy to admit when I don't know the answer to something.

I'll tell you this: My view that the war in Ukraine imperils Western civilization has gotten stronger with time, not weaker. I feel that way. I thought it, before. Now, I really think it. There are lots of things I have worried about in the past that have turned out to be not worth worrying about. I was just in the Middle East, yesterday, and I was thinking I first went to the Gulf in 2001, right after 9/11, and we were completely convinced — I was completely convinced — that we were looking at the beginning of a 500 year war against Islam, the West versus Islam. And that's not the way it turned out at all, actually.

The Gulf Arabs that I’ve dealt with, over the years, are far more tolerant than your average white, secular liberal in America — far more tolerant. They have a bigger and more Christian Christmas celebration in Abu Dhabi than we have in New York.

Weltwoche: In general, what gives you hope in a rather worrisome time, looking into the future? 

Carlson: That the stakes have suddenly gotten so high that smart people are rethinking their assumptions. I see it all around me. I see people all around me asking themselves, “I used to believe this. Is it still true? Was it ever true? What is the truth?” People are focused on questions of truth and falsehood, I think, much more deeply than they ever have been, and that's a good thing.

I also see an awakening of spiritual awareness and religious faith in the United States that I think is great. Not everyone is reaching the same conclusions that I'm reaching, but that's okay. It's better than thinking that Amazon's going to make you happy, because Amazon is not going to make you happy, actually. That's not true. That's a lie. And more and more people seem to be concluding that it's a lie, and I think that's a great thing.

There's this idea that somehow the main threat to our happiness is from religious people. That's absurd. The main threat to our happiness is from people who think they're God. They're the dangerous ones. If you think that you're God, there's no limit to what you'll do because you think you're the final arbiter, you're the final judge, you're all-powerful. That's terrifying.

I'm much more comfortable around religious people. I'm a Christian, but they don't have to share my views. As I just said, I was actually meeting with some people the other day. There was a call to prayer right in the middle of our meeting, and everyone got up and got on their knees and faced toward Mecca and worshiped Allah. Twenty years ago, I would've thought, “Oh my gosh, how threatening!” Now, I thought, “How wonderful. How great is that?”

Weltwoche: When are you coming back to Switzerland? I know it might be boring, here. You told me there's nothing to report on. But it'd be nice to have you over.

Carlson: I love that. I love a boring country. You've got the last boring country in the West.

Weltwoche: Switzerland is changing, too.

Carlson: I know, it’s true. But at least it’s beautiful. If you have inspiring physical beauty, it’s kind of hard to take the mountains away. I hope Switzerland stays exactly the same. The second the American empire collapses, you will get the bank secrecy back.

By the way, secrecy does not imply wrongdoing. Privacy is a prerequisite for freedom. I have a lock at my bedroom. It doesn’t mean I do anything illegal in my bedroom. I am not a slave; I am a citizen. I can have privacy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 05:45

These Are The Highest Paid CEOs In The S&P 500

These Are The Highest Paid CEOs In The S&P 500

Many of the world’s most valuable companies are listed on the S&P 500, the benchmark index for the U.S. stock market.

For this reason, it is no surprise to see that CEOs of these key companies have multi-million dollar compensation packages. But what do these pay packages comprise? And do these CEOs always receive the compensation they are awarded? Or does it increase and decrease with stock market fluctuations?

In the following infographic, Visual Capitalist's Freny Fernandes and Sam Parker use data published by The Wall Street Journal to show the highest paid CEOs of S&P 500 companies in 2022, and delve into what their compensation includes.

The 20 Highest Paid CEOs

The compensation packages of CEOs of S&P 500 companies comprise not just salaries, but bonuses, stock awards, and other incentives.

Here are the CEOs of S&P 500 companies that were awarded the highest pay packages last year, and the sectors they belong to.

CEO Company Sector Total Pay
Sundar Pichai Alphabet Communication Services $226M
Michael Rapino Live Nation Entertainment Communication Services $139M
Tim Cook Apple Info Tech $99M
Peter Zaffino American International Group Financials $75M
Hock Tan Broadcom Info Tech $61M
Vicente Reynal Ingersoll Rand Industrials $55M
Reed Hastings Netflix Communication Services $51M
Theodore Sarandos Netflix Communication Services $50M
Hamid Moghadam Prologis Real Estate $48M
Stephen Squeri American Express Financials $48M
James Gorman Morgan Stanley Financials $39M
David Zaslav Warner Bros. Discovery Communication Services $39M
William McDermott ServiceNow Info Tech $39M
Mark Begor Equifax Industrials $37M
Darren W. Woods Exxon Mobil Energy $36M
David Simon Simon Property Group Real Estate $36M
James Dimon JPMorgan Chase Financials $35M
Julie Sweet Accenture Info Tech $34M
Albert Bourla Pfizer Medical $33M
Laurence Fink BlackRock Financials $33M

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google’s parent company, Alphabet, topped the list with an awarded pay package valued at around $226 million, which was over 800 times Google’s median employee compensation. His pay package included his annual salary of $2 million, a sum of $6 million for his personal security and stock awards valued at $218 million.

Meanwhile, Live Nation Entertainment CEO Michael Rapino’s awarded pay package shot up to $139 million in 2022 from almost $14 million the previous year. This included stock awards initially valued at $116 million. Tech companies Apple and Broadcom were not far behind. While Apple CEO Tim Cook’s compensation package was valued at $99 million in 2022, Broadcom’s president and CEO Hock Tan was awarded $61 million.

Other CEOs that made it to the list include global insurance giant AIG’s CEO, Peter Zaffino, and Netflix’s co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Reed Hastings. While Hastings received a $10 million hike last year, he stepped down from this role in January 2023.

Rising Median CEO Income Hits a Wall

Over the last decade, the median pay awarded to CEOs across S&P 500 companies has doubled.

Year Median Total Compensation for S&P 500 CEOs Change (%)
2010 $7.68M n/a
2011 $7.56M -2%
2012 $6.96M -8%
2013 $7.95M 14%
2014 $9.35M 18%
2015 $9.72M 4%
2016 $9.93M 2%
2017 $10.62M 7%
2018 $11.81M 11%
2019 $12.20M 3%
2020 $13.43M 10%
2021 $14.67M 9%
2022 $14.50M -1%

In 2021, this number hit a high of $14.7 million.

However, in 2022, the median CEO compensation package hit a wall for the first time in a decade as it slightly fell to $14.5 million.

Compensation Actually Paid

A compensation package dependent on market valuation means that these CEOs may receive more or less than the pay they are slated to receive.

This is because most stock awards aren’t granted when announced, but instead vest over time, becoming subject to changes in share prices.

In 2022, the SEC introduced new disclosure rules for companies to report this realized value for executive pay packages, appropriately called “compensation actually paid.”

CEO Company Total Pay Compensation Paid
Sundar Pichai Alphabet $226M $116M
Michael Rapino Live Nation Entertainment $139M $36M
Tim Cook Apple $99M N/A
Peter Zaffino American International Group $75M $91M
Hock Tan Broadcom $61M N/A
Vicente Reynal Ingersoll Rand $55M $51M
Reed Hastings Netflix $51M $50M
Theodore (Ted) Sarandos Netflix $50M $50M
Hamid. Moghadam Prologis $48M -$8M
Stephen Squeri American Express $48M $43M
James Gorman Morgan Stanley $39M $31M
David Zaslav Warner Bros. Discovery $39M -$41M
William McDermott ServiceNow $39M -$76M
Mark Begor Equifax $37M -$19M
Darren Woods Exxon Mobil $36M $90M
David Simon Simon Property Group $36M $30M
James Dimon JPMorgan Chase $35M $37M
Julie Sweet Accenture $34M N/A
Albert Bourla Pfizer $33M $6M
Laurence Fink BlackRock $33M -$6M

The Wall Street Journal report revealed that many of the top-paid S&P 500 CEOs in 2022 received much smaller pay packages due to market fluctuations.

For example, Sundar Pichai ended up receiving about $116 million as the value of Alphabet’s stock dropped at the time that his grants vested. Similarly, Michael Rapino was paid almost $36 million, though his stock awards will continue vesting for another five years.

Barring Pichai, many of the names of the highest paid S&P 500 CEOs were eclipsed by CEOs of several energy companies, like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, whose stock prices shot up in 2022.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 05:45

Western US Braces For Loss Of Solar-Powered Generation During Solar Eclipse

Western US Braces For Loss Of Solar-Powered Generation During Solar Eclipse

By Kassia Micek of S&P Commodity Insights

The California Independent System Operator is preparing for a reduction of over 9 GW of renewable generation during the Oct. 14 annular solar eclipse as solar-powered generation accounts for the vast majority of supply during the middle of the day.

The annular solar eclipse begins in the US in Oregon at 9:13 am PT and ends in Texas at 12:03 pm CT, according to NASA. An annular solar eclipse occurs when the moon passes in front of the sun, appearing slightly smaller than the sun, so it does not block the entire solar disk.

"We've been trying to get ahead of this," CAISO President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said during his CEO report to the Western Energy Imbalance Market governing body Sept. 19. "It'll be an interesting moment."

Renewables account for roughly 70% of supply during midday peak with solar making up over 80% of renewable generation at its daily peak, according to CAISO data.

The grid operator's short-term forecasting team detailed the eclipse's impacts to the region in a recent technical bulletin that shows grid-scale renewables generation is expected to decline by 9.374 GW, while at the same time, gross load will increase by 2.374 GW.

"These changes will lead to steeper ramping conditions on both the up-ramp to the eclipse max and down-ramp following the eclipse return," Mainzer wrote in his CEO Report.

The ISO will coordinate with Reliability Coordinator West, utility distribution companies, and WEIM entities to ensure stable market operations to support reliable system operations on the eclipse day

Regional eclipse impacts

The WEIM, which covers much of the West, will be affected by the eclipse from about 8 am through 11 am PT, according to the CAISO technical bulletin. Each WEIM area will have varying times and magnitude of impact, with sun obscuration ranging from 65%-90%.

The California Balancing Authority Area will be affected from about 8:05-10:57 am PT, ranging from 89% sun obscuration in Northern California to 68% along the Southern California coast, according to the technical bulletin. CAISO will work with both interstate and intrastate gas suppliers to ensure availability during the eclipse, as well as with hydro and battery resources to assist with large ramps.

The Bonneville Power Administration expects to see some fluctuations in generation and loads here in the Pacific Northwest – but nothing that should impact reliability, BPA spokesperson Doug Johnson said Sept. 20.

"We are staying in touch with our Reliability Coordinator and others across the Western Interconnection to coordinate and cooperate," Johnson said.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas will rely upon its gas fleet to make up the different as solar generation goes down during the eclipse.

NV Energy did not reply to a request for comment.

The Public Service Company of New Mexico declined to comment on the record.

Solar generation growth

The US experienced a total solar eclipse on Aug. 21, 2017, but solar capacity has grown significantly since then, making the effects of this year's eclipse stronger.

"This is going to be a more impactful event because the growth in solar capacity since 2017 has been pretty remarkable," Mainzer said Sept. 19.

CAISO's grid-scale and rooftop behind-the-meter solar have grown by 6.5 GW and 8.55 GW since 2017, respectively, while WEIM footprint grid-scale and rooftop solar have grown by 9.414 GW and 5.720 GW, respectively, according to the technical bulletin.

"Since then, the CAISO has also started offering reliability coordination services to the bulk of balancing areas in the Western Interconnection as the RC West, and there are now 21 balancing areas that participate in the WEIM," CAISO said in the technical bulletin. "With the West more interconnected now than ever, the CAISO is evaluating the effects of the 2023 solar eclipse with a broader scope. Impacts will be felt across all of the utilities at various times and magnitudes within the WEIM and RC West, and entities can utilize these connections and relationships to maintain reliable operations, collaborate and optimize resources throughout the eclipse."

California leads the US in solar capacity with 17.934 GW by the end of Q2, according to the American Clean Power Association's Q2 report. CAISO manages the flow of electricity for about 80% of California and a small part of Nevada.

CAISO set a solar generation peak record of 16.044 GW at 12:18 pm PT Sept. 6, breaking a two-month-old record.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 06:55

Canada's House Speaker Apologizes For Honoring Actual Nazi; Still Radio Silence From ADL

Canada's House Speaker Apologizes For Honoring Actual Nazi; Still Radio Silence From ADL

Update: The Canadian speaker of the House of Commons has issued an apology after he asked the entire Parliament to give a standing ovation last week to a 98 year old Nazi Waffen-SS soldier in the presence of the visiting Ukrainian President Zelensky.

Anthony Rota issued the apology Sunday, claiming that the decision to honor Yaroslav Hunka, a Ukrainian who fought with 14th “Galicia” division of the Waffen-SS in the Second World War, was entirely down to him.

On September 22, in the House of Commons, I recognized an individual in the gallery. I regret my decision to do so, and accept full responsibility for my actions. Read my statement here: https://t.co/Hd9chtHFNJ

— Speaker of the HoC (@HoCSpeaker) September 24, 2023

“I wish to make clear that no one, including fellow parliamentarians and the Ukraine delegation, was aware of my intention or of my remarks before I delivered them,” Rota noted, adding “This initiative was entirely my own, the individual in question being from my riding and having been brought to my attention.”

“I particularly want to extend my deepest apologies to Jewish communities in Canada and around the world. I accept full responsibility for my actions,” Rota further stated.

Meanwhile, we are surprised that Jonathan Greenblatt and the ADL have not been vociferously attacking the honoring of one of Hitler's henchmen. That seems like an "anti-semitic" action being taken by Trudeau and Zelenskyy that should demand widespread condemnation from an organization that prides itself on rooting out anti-semitism...

*  *  *

As we detailed previously, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy - who commands a battalion of neo-Nazis - honored an actual WWII Nazi with a standing ovation on Friday.

Yaroslav Hunka, 98, fought in a Third Reich military formation accused of war crimes.

On Friday, he was honored during a session of Canadian parliament in which Zelenskyy addressed the lawmakers to thank them for their support since Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that Canada has always been on "the bright side of history."

Hunka stood for standing ovation and saluted, according to Canadian television.

A 98-year old was given standing ovation by the Canadian parliament during Zelensky's speech.

He was hailed as a hero for fighting against the Russians.

Yaroslav Hunk fought for the 14th division of the Waffen SS. pic.twitter.com/1J2lNywBM5

— UNN (@UnityNewsNet) September 24, 2023

According to the Associated Press, Hunka "fought with the First Ukrainian Division in World War II before later immigrating to Canada," another name for the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, the Nazi party's military wing, also known as the SS Galichina.

Related:

Formed in 1943, SS Galichina was comprised of Ukrainians from the Galicia region in the western part of the country. It was armed and trained by Hitler's Nazis and commanded by German officers. The next year, the division received a visit from SS head Heinrich Himmler, who had high praise for the unit's effectiveness at slaughtering Poles.

The SS Galichina subunits were responsible for the Huta Pieniacka massacre, in which they burned 500 to 1,000 Polish villagers alive.

One of several photos on a blog by an SS Galichina veterans’ group that shows Yaroslav Hunka, the Ukrainian immigrant honored by the Canadian Parliament during a visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hunka is in the front row, middle.

In fact, during the Nuremberg Trials, the Waffen-SS was declared to be a criminal organization responsible for mass atrocities.

Here’s the Ottawa-approved 14th division of the Waffen SS in the field https://t.co/gsMEEiqKNo pic.twitter.com/qVHClZrI7J

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 24, 2023

Following the war, thousands of SS Galichina veterans were allowed to leave Germany and resettle in the West - with around 2,000 moving to Canada. By that time, they were known as the First Ukrainian Division.

A blog by an association of its veterans, called “Combatant News” in Ukrainian, includes an autobiographical entry by a Yaroslav Hunka that says he volunteered to join the division in 1943 and several photographs of him during the war. The captions say the pictures show Hunka during SS artillery training in Munich in December 1943 and in Neuhammer (now Świętoszów), Poland, the site of Himmler’s visit. 

In posts to the blog dated 2011 and 2010, Hunka describes 1941 to 1943 as the happiest years of his life and compares the veterans of his unit, who were scattered across the world, to Jews. -Forward

So, the same leftists who called Trump supporters Nazis for years are now honoring an actual Nazi - while Germany has notably locked up several concentration camp guards in their 90s for their involvement in Nazi activities.

University of Ottawa Political Scientist Ivan Katchanovski lays it out...

He wrote that he volunteered to join SS Galicia Division in 1943 in Ternopil region in Western Ukraine https://t.co/QAKG9hZOjo

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) September 24, 2023

AP/CBC: "A top commander of a Nazi SS-led unit accused of burning villages filled with women and children lied to American immigration officials to get into the United States and has been living in Minnesota since shortly after the Second World War, according to evidence… pic.twitter.com/SAgjh0HCgy

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) September 24, 2023

"Zelenskyy joins Canadian Parliament’s ovation to 98-year-old veteran who fought with Nazis. The man was part of SS Galichina, a unit whose history has been whitewashed by veterans groups in the West. The Canadian Parliament gave a standing ovation on Friday to a 98-year-old… pic.twitter.com/tB8RQ4fXmS

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) September 24, 2023

Meanwhile, here's Ukraine's Azov Battalion of neo-Nazis that everyone with a Ukraine flag in their bio is supporting...

Odd, they don't look like Trump supporters.

Maybe these Nazis can shed some light? Careful, "X" thinks this is sensitive material (that might redpill people?).

As @RealAlexRubi reported, "Boneface" McLellan has boasted of taking photographs of Ukrainian fighters “posing with the corpses of a lynched pregnant woman and a man they said was her husband.”

Boneface also insists Ukraine's military is filled with Nazis like himself: “There… pic.twitter.com/AyzuO89xvL

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) September 3, 2023

Meanwhile...

Google has put up it's obligatory admonishment about using "trusted" sources on the Nazi collaborator story. What's particularly egregious in this instance is that not only is the Hunka story demonstrably true but the corporate media is enforcing a blackout on any mention of it. pic.twitter.com/3YUCIuoQ8N

— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) September 24, 2023

Extra meanwhile...

Is there anything else, uh, more important to comment on right now maybe? https://t.co/YxOGrzYvi4

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 25, 2023
Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 13:15

Hollywood Screenwriters Reach Preliminary Labor Deal With Studios To End Strike

Hollywood Screenwriters Reach Preliminary Labor Deal With Studios To End Strike

After more than four months, the Writers Guild of America (WGA), which represents more than 11,500 screenwriters, has reached a preliminary labor agreement with studios including Netflix, Disney, Amazon, Discovery-Warner, NBC Universal, Paramount, Apple, and Sony. 

Negotiations between WGA and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers restarted in recent weeks - after several months of on-and-off discussions over a new labor contract.

"We have reached a tentative agreement on a new 2023 MBA, which is to say an agreement in principle on all deal points, subject to drafting final contract language," WGA wrote in a statement. 

The union continued, "What we have won in this contract—most particularly, everything we have gained since May 2—is due to the willingness of this membership to exercise its power, to demonstrate its solidarity, to walk side-by-side, to endure the pain and uncertainty of the past 146 days." 

"It is the leverage generated by your strike, in concert with the extraordinary support of our union siblings, that finally brought the companies back to the table to make a deal," the union added. 

The writers have been on strike since May 2 - the first time since 2007 - have demanded higher pay from streaming services and protections from the use of artificial intelligence. 

It has also caused many Hollywood productions to grind to a halt. Several high-profile shows, such as Netflix's "Stranger Things," and various Marvel/Disney productions (such as Dune: Part Two featuring Christopher Walken) have hit the pause button.

Last week, CNBC's David Faber wrote on X that WGA and studios were inching closer to a deal.  

After face to face meeting today, writers and producers near agreement to end WGA strike. Met today and hope to finalize deal tomorrow, according to people close to the negotiations, who, while optimistic, warn that without deal tomorrow strike likely continues through year end.

— David Faber (@davidfaber) September 21, 2023

As soon as this week, WGA members might be able to vote on the new provisional three-year deal. 

The union said, "Once the Memorandum of Agreement with the AMPTP is complete, the Negotiating Committee will vote on whether to recommend the agreement and send it on to the WGAW Board and WGAE Council for approval. The Board and Council will then vote on whether to authorize a contract ratification vote by the membership."

This news propelled Paramount Global shares up 3.5%, Netflix +1, and .8% in premarket trading. 

Following WGA's preliminary labor agreement, attention will turn to the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. They have been striking since July and have similar demands in new contracts. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 07:20

Energy Stocks Surge After Biggest Short Squeeze In A Year

Energy Stocks Surge After Biggest Short Squeeze In A Year

Over the past month we had repeatedly pointed out that at a time when oil and other energy commodities were soaring - and Brent last week surpassed the average price at which Biden drained the SPR so at least the US now has (almost) triple digit oil again but 200 million fewer emergency barrels of oil - energy stocks were rising but at a much slower pace (something which even JPMorgan highlighted on Friday in their wholesale upgrade of the energy sector).

dramatic disconnect between oil and energy stocks pic.twitter.com/VelHdd21K9

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 20, 2023

We also pointed out why it was that energy stock prices had remained so depressed even when underlying commodities were once again flying: hedge funds, which were buying up tech and AI names (just before the latest dump) were aggressively shorting energy stocks, pushing cumulative net trading flow to the shortest it has been this year as recently as early August, prompting us to predict an imminent short squeeze:

The next squeeze: HFs piling into energy shorts, praying oil stops rising.

good luck pic.twitter.com/F4qe2Dvnvh

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 12, 2023

We were right, because not only did the XLE accelerate back to 2023 highs shortly after, but at a time when hedge funds just shorted the broader market at the fastest pace since Jan 2022...

... amid the biggest deleveraging in the hedge fund community since the covid crash (March 2020) as hedge fund net leverage absolutely imploded...

... one sector stuck out.

Indeed, as Goldman's Prime Brokerage reported in its latest weekly analysis (discussed earlier here), "single stocks were net sold for a third straight week driven almost entirely by short sales" with 8 of 11 sectors were net sold on the week, led in notional terms by Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Health Care, and Info Tech.

Consumer Discretionary stocks saw the largest net selling since Dec ’21 (-3.9 SDs), driven by short-and-long sales (~3 to 1). Automobiles, Broadline Retail, and Specialty Retail were the most net sold subsectors.

But not every sector was shorted: "Energy stocks saw the largest net buying in a year (+1.4 SDs), driven by short covers and to a lesser extent long buys (1.8 to 1)."

And as all those energy shorts are finally carted out wheel first and are forced to capitulate, we are seeing more of the same in oil, where after hitting a near-record low just a few months ago, WTI+Brent net specs have just barely managed to crawl above the average level for the past 12 years.

Should the squeeze accelerate, and assuming JPM is correct and the current 3 million barrel/day deficit extends to 7 million by 2030...

... it most certainly will, the net spec contracts in Brent+WTI would have to double before hitting their 2018 high, something that could happen in just a few months if not weeks. It's also why would would not be very surprised if in 7 years Exxon is as big as Nvidia, or even Apple is today.

And we are not the only ones. As the FT reported late last week, hedge funds are piling into the oil market betting that prices will soon pass $100 a barrel.

Riyadh’s extension until December of a 1mn barrel a day oil cut, in addition to further cuts under its Opec+ target, has compounded Moscow’s move to limit exports and pushed prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to $95 a barrel this week, a fresh high for the year.

Quoting the same futures and options trader data we use every week, the FT concludes that hedge fund positioning had "exacerbated the near 30 per cent move higher in prices since June, with a surge in buying accelerating in the past two weeks for both Brent and US crude futures."

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that hedge fund interest in oil had been reignited by Saudi Arabia’s announcement at the start of this month that it would keep its voluntary production curbs in place longer than previously thought.

“That was the trigger,” Hansen said. “Suddenly everyone realised the market was set to keep going higher in the short term.” And not so short term, for various reasons explained by JPM including:

  1. More positive macro outlook (our preference is oil over gas owing to the former’s structurally positive characteristics and lower OPEC-mitigated volatility),
  2. in-the-money corporate cash breakevens (vs the forward strip), implying ~12% ‘24 FCF yields rising to ~15% at $100/bbl,
  3. Upside risks to EPS (we are ~10% higher than the street in 2024 (on MTM basis) having been ~10% below in January),
  4. Attractive valuations relative to the market underpinned by cash return yields >30%,
  5. In the event that global inventories continue to fall and a rising oil price environment, OPEC is likely to add in the next 12 months. Historically, this has been supportive for energy equities as it typically indicates improving underlying fundamentals (demand) – we show energy equities tend to outperform and positively decouple to oil on production adds (we note that although oil prices are up 30% since June when Saudi initiated the 1mb/d cut, equities have lagged, only up ~10% i.e. negatively decoupled).

Then again, with most financial professionals using oil and energy equities as their preferred way to hedge against the next recession, the oil bears are still in the majority.

Doug King, chief investment officer at RCMA Asset Management — who runs the $300mn Merchant Commodity Fund — said he was not convinced oil would go that much higher as the strength in the market was being driven by Opec+ supply restraint, rather than particularly strong demand.

“The move higher is not massively structural, I think it’s more contrived,” said King. “We’re approaching the upper end of this move in my view, as if we get above $100 a barrel I suspect we’ll see more barrels leak on to the market.”

Other investors were using the options market to hedge against prices passing $100 a barrel before the end of the year. As of Friday, funds had bought about 37,000 call options in WTI expiring in December at a “strike” price of $115, according to Charlie McElligott, an equity derivatives strategist at Nomura. “Hot moves risk bringing in tourist buyers,” he said.

“The march to $100 [a barrel] seems relentless,” said Ehsan Khoman, head of research for commodities at MUFG Bank. “The question is how long does it stay there.”

Ryan Fitzmaurice, head index trader at broker Marex, said that oil currently looked like a “heavily momentum-driven market”, with spot prices for oil moving significantly above those for delivery later in the year, a market phenomenon known in the industry as backwardation.

While funds tend to concentrate trades in the front month, Fitzmaurice said oil producers were selling contracts for later delivery to lock in higher prices for future production. “That’s resulted in this extreme curve shape,” said Fitzmaurice.

Higher oil prices are already affecting wider stock markets. The Dow Jones US Airlines index has dropped 24% since July 11, with Delta Air Lines and American having slashed their third-quarter earnings forecasts because of rising fuel prices. The S&P 500 Energy index, in contrast, is up 11% over the same period, and is set to rise much more as all those funds who bet - poorly - on a continued meltup in AI and other stupid tech gimmicks, rotate right into the painful squeeze that is crushing energy shorts.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 07:45

Futures Extend Slide As Yields, Dollar Blow Out

Futures Extend Slide As Yields, Dollar Blow Out

Global markets started the new week on the back foot with US equity futures, European bourses and Asian markets all sliding as Treasury yields resumed their grind higher, with 10Y yields rising above 4.50% and 30Y TSYs rising 6bps to 4.59% - both new cycle highs - as traders speculated central banks will keep interest rates elevated to quell inflation. The dollar hit its highest level since March as investors sought the "safety" of the "strong" US economy amid hopes the US can somehow decouple from the recession in Europe and China for the foreseeable future. The mood was depressed following the worst weekly selloff on Wall Street since March, and as of 7:45am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged 0.2% lower while rates climbed across the board, mirroring moves in European and UK bond markets. WTI traded unchanged around $90/barrel, while gold and Bitcoin fell.

In premarket trading, Warner Bros Discovery climbed about 4%, Disney was up 1%, and Netflix up 1.3%, leading film and TV producers higher, after striking Hollywood screenwriters reached a tentative new labor agreement. By contrast, Foot Locker and Nike were poised for a lower open as Jefferies analysts downgraded the stocks over looming consumer headwinds. Alector delined 3.6% after Goldman gives the clinical stage biopharmaceutical company its only sell rating in an initiation note, citing “significant clinical risk.”

After the barrage of central bank decisions last week, traders are increasingly concerned that rising oil prices will further fan inflation, which will make it difficult for policymakers to reduce rates anytime soon. Oil resumed a rally as hedge funds piled on bets tightening supplies will stoke demand. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index rose to the highest since March.

“All central banks need to stick to this higher-for-longer rhetoric as inflation is nowhere close to their mandate,” said Pooja Kumra, senior European rates strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank. Which is great, the only problem is that it means that US housing market is now effectively frozen for the middle class where nobody can afford to pay the current insane mortgages, and so it is only a matter of time before this becomes a major political issue.

The monthly mortgage payment for purchasers of existing homes, using the 30-year average mortgage rate, stands at $2,309. This is a substantial increase from $977 in March 2020. pic.twitter.com/JQHIJGQp9u

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) September 25, 2023

Two Fed officials said at least one more rate hike is possible and that borrowing costs may need to stay higher for longer for the central bank to ease inflation back to its 2% target. While Boston Fed President Susan Collins said further tightening “is certainly not off the table,” Governor Michelle Bowman signaled that more than one increase will probably be required.

Meanwhile, the "shocking" surge in oil prices - which apparently nobody could have anticipated even though the senile occupant of the White House intentionally drained half the SPR just to lower gas for a few months and oil is now back above the average price at which SPR oil was sold - and a massive fiscal deficit are spurring losses in government debt, sending Treasury yields across the maturity curve the highest levels in more than a decade. The Treasury 10-year yield may rise to 4.75% before softer risk sentiment and tighter financial conditions push it lower into year-end, according to BofA strategists.

European stocks were broadly lower, sending the Stoxx 600 down 0.8%; dragged by mining shares as China’s property problems weighed on the outlook for natural resources. Travel, mining and consumer products were the worst performing sectors in Europe after the German IFO business climate topped expectations. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • SBB shares surge as much as 40%, most since June 2 after selling a stake in subsidiary EduCo to Brookfield for SEK242m and being repaid an inter-company loan.
  • Bpost shares rise as much as 14% after the postal company finalized three compliance reviews and took a provision of €75m, which is well below KBC (hold) initial assumption of between €112 and €375m.
  • Italian lenders outperformed after Bloomberg reported that they will be allowed to avoid paying a controversial windfall tax introduced last month if they set aside additional capital reserves, citing a government amendment.
  • Ubisoft shares gain as much as 7.3% after BNP Paribas upgraded the shares to outperform, saying the market underestimates upside from new game releases.
  • Anima shares rise as much as 4.9% in Milan trading - highest since March, after newspaper La Stampa reported on Sunday Amundi may raise its stake in the Italian asset manager and could consider a full takeover.
  • Close Brothers shares gain as much as 2.8% as JPMorgan upgrades to neutral from underweight, noting the lender has materially lagged other UK banks over the past year.
  • European miners and steelmakers shares fall after iron ore slumped as China’s persistently weak property market causes construction companies to hold back restocking of steel before the National Day holiday period.
  • Aperam shares plunge as much as 12% after the steelmaker cut its outlook for third-quarter volumes, citing two “unforeseen” events. Degroof Petercam says co. faces a tough quarter after warning 3Q will “significantly” miss expectations and previous guidance.
  • Victoria shares drop as much as 13%, to the lowest in about four months, after FT Alphaville noted the flooring company’s recent delay of audited results and statements made by auditor Grant Thornton relating to Victoria’s Hanover subsidiary.
  • Alphawave IP shares drop as much as 11% after the semiconductor-intellectual-property firm gave a forecast that was no better than market expectations.
  • Entain shares fall as much as 11% after the gambling company said net gaming revenue was “softer than anticipated” after the summer, and noted a simplification of group structures to reduce costs.
  • Salzgitter shares drop as much as 3.9% after JPMorgan lowered its price target on the steel producer to a new Street low, citing downside risk to 2023 consensus and 2024 estimates after the company recently cut its guidance.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also fell, extending last week’s loss, as Chinese stocks slid on renewed property-related concerns while investors also weighed the prospects of US interest rates remaining higher for longer.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with Tencent and AIA Group among the biggest drags.  Asian equities have fallen below key support levels this month as worries over China’s economic woes in addition to high US rates and surging global crude prices weaken the case for region’s risk assets. The regional benchmark is on track for a second-straight monthly loss.

  • Benchmarks fell in Hong Kong and mainland China, with property stocks sliding after distressed developer Evergrande scrapped a key creditor meeting added to fears about its debt pile. That’s compounding concern that global growth will stall as the economic engine of China sputters. Furthermore, China Aouyuan shares dropped by over 70% on the resumption of trade following a 17-month hiatus.
  • Nikkei 225 outperformed amid stimulus hopes with the government considering 5yr-10yr tax benefits for firms producing semiconductors and storage batteries, as well as providing support in areas where firms face high entry risk and will reportedly boost take-home pay for part-time workers.
  • Australia's ASX 200 was marginally lower with losses in mining stocks and financials overshadowing the resilience in the consumer and tech sectors.
  • Key stock gauges in India ended flat on Monday dragged by information technology firms amid cautious sentiment across the region. Reliance Industries fell for a fifth consecutive session to its lowest level in almost three months, also dragging the the country’s most valuable firm to a level seen as oversold based on its 14-day RSI.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed modest losses to gain 0.2%, up a fourth day. Investors mulled the week ahead that includes plenty of Fed speakers, jobless claims and PCE deflator data, with increasing concern about potential for a US government shutdown. The euro traded off the lows after German IFO beat expectations, although the single currency is still down 0.2% versus the greenback. The Swiss franc and Aussie dollar were the worst performers in G-10, falling 0.4%; the franc was the worst-performer in G-10 as it remains under pressure after SNB kept rates unchanged last week. USDJPY extended through 148.50, adding to cheapening pressure on Treasury yields.

In rates, treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by up to 7bp on the day and 2s10s, 5s30s spreads near session wides heading into early US session. 10-year TSY yields were around 4.49% (after touching a fresh 2007 high of 4.50%) and more than 5bp higher on the day, near top of Friday session range and 30-year yields rose 6bps to 4.59% - a new cycle high; the German benchmark jumped six basis points to 2.80%, the highest since 2011. Long-end-led losses prolong curve-steepening trend, leaving US 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 5.5bp and 3bp on the day; 2s10s reached -62bp, least inverted since May 24. Treasuries led by price action in core European rates, where German 30-year yields are cheaper by almost 9bp on the day. Into the move, German 10-year yields rise to highest since 2011 as central banks remain in higher for longer mode.  Dollar IG issuance slate contains three names so far; weekly volume is expected to total $15b-$20b. Treasury sells 2-, 5- and 7-year notes this week with auctions starting Tuesday.

In commodities, oil prices pared an earlier gain. Spot gold fell 0.2%. Bitcoin prices remain subdued around the USD 26k mark. Mixin Network suspended services after a hack involving USD 200mln in funds, according to The Block.

Today's calendar is relatively sparse: we get the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 10:30am. At 6pm Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,360.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 451.27
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 159.33
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 493.69
  • Nikkei up 0.9% to 32,678.62
  • Topix up 0.4% to 2,385.50
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 17,729.29
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,115.61
  • Sensex little changed at 66,042.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,076.53
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,495.76
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.78%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0632
  • Brent Futures up 0.7% to $93.92/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,922.02
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.12% to 105.71

Top Overnight News

  • China central bank advisor says the country should pursue structural reforms instead of further monetary easing to bolster growth. RTRS
  • Chinese property stocks tumble after China Evergrande Group suffered another setback in its restructuring and may be forced to liquidate. BBG
  • China prevents a senior Nomura banker from leaving the mainland as part of an investigation, a move likely to further undermine global business community confidence in the country. FT
  • Japan is considering a series of tax breaks to lower production costs in critical industries such as semiconductors, batteries, and biotechnology. Also, Japan is likely to come under growing pressure to intervene and stabilize the yen, w/the 150 level considered a potential trigger point. Nikkei
  • ECB’s Villeroy says the recent rise in energy prices won’t derail the Eurozone’s underlying disinflation, as the goal is still to achieve 2% inflation in 2025. BBG
  • Italy will allow banks to avoid a controversial windfall tax if they put 2.5x the tax amount toward strengthening their common equity tier 1 ratio. BBG
  • Trump has a 10-point lead over Biden in a new Washington Post-ABC poll, and 3 in 5 Dems/Dem-leaning independents say they would prefer someone other than Biden on the ticket. WaPo
  • Screenwriters reached a tentative deal with Hollywood studios, settling one of two walkouts that have shut down production. The writers gained concessions on key points, including higher wages, people familiar said. Initial votes on the pact by union boards may come as soon as tomorrow. The focus will then shift to reaching a deal with striking actors. Netflix and Disney gained premarket. BBG
  • The US economy faces a slew of headwinds during the final months of the year, including the lagged effect of monetary tightening, the UAW strike, a potential gov’t shutdown, elevated oil/gas prices, and the resumption of student loan payments. WSJ
  • Per GS’s PB book US equities were heavily net sold last week, driven almost entirely by short selling, which in notional terms was the largest since Sep ’22, driven by Macro Products and Single Stocks (~70/30 split). HFs have been pressing US shorts for 3 straight weeks (5 of the past 6). In cumulative notional terms over any 6-week period, the amount of shorting in US equities since mid-August is the largest in six months and ranks in the 98th percentile vs. the past decade. GSPB

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed albeit with a mostly negative bias following the lack of major catalysts from over the weekend and amid Chinese developer woes, while attention this week turns to data releases and the US government shutdown deadline. ASX 200 was marginally lower with losses in mining stocks and financials overshadowing the resilience in the consumer and tech sectors. Nikkei 225 outperformed amid stimulus hopes with the government considering 5yr-10yr tax benefits for firms producing semiconductors and storage batteries, as well as providing support in areas where firms face high entry risk and will reportedly boost take-home pay for part-time workers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid developer-related concerns with Evergrande shares down more than 20% after it cancelled its creditor meeting and is scrapping its USD 35bln debt restructuring plan, while the Co. said it is unable to issue new debt under the present circumstances citing an investigation into its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate. Furthermore, China Aouyuan shares dropped by over 70% on the resumption of trade following a 17-month hiatus.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC adviser said China has limited room for further monetary policy easing and should pursue structural reforms such as encouraging entrepreneurs instead of relying on macroeconomic policies to revive growth, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese state asset manager, China Reform Holdings is to set up a strategic emerging industry fund worth at least CNY 100bln, according to Bloomberg.
  • Evergrande (3333 HK) cancelled its creditor meeting set for early this week and is scrapping its USD 35bln debt restructuring plan, while it noted that it is necessary to re-assess the terms of the proposed restructuring. Co. also stated that it is unable to issue new debt under the present circumstances citing an investigation into its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate.
  • Chinese President Xi said in a meeting with South Korea’s PM that he welcomes a summit between China, South Korea and Japan at an opportune time and will seriously consider visiting South Korea, according to Reuters.
  • US Department of Defense said the US and China will hold a working-level meeting on cyber issues and strategy, according to Reuters.
  • EU’s Dombrovskis said the EU has no intention to decouple from China but needs to protect itself when its openness is abused. Dombrovskis also said that cooperation with Europe and China remains essential and if they talk candidly, they can make paths converge and re-energise engagement. Furthermore, he said that de-risking is a strategy to maintain openness not undermine it and that the strongest headwind is Russia's aggression against Ukraine and how China positions itself on the issue.
  • Japan’s government is considering 5yr-10yr tax benefits for firms producing semiconductors and storage batteries as part of an upcoming economic stimulus package, while the government is considering providing support in areas where private-sector firms face high entry risks.
  • Japan is to boost take-home pay for part-time workers, according to Yomiuri.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that BoJ must patiently maintain monetary easing; Japan's economy is recovering moderately. He added the policy framework has a big simulative effect on the economy but at times could have big side effects. Ueda noted stable and sustainable achievement of 2% inflation is not yet in sight, and Japan's economy is at a critical stage on whether it can achieve positive wage-inflation cycle. Japanese firms are changing prices more frequently than in the past, which is an important sign suggesting wages and inflation could move in tandem. Ueda said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals; BoJ hopes to work closely with the government and scrutinise the impact of FX moves on the economy and prices. BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ will not directly target FX in guiding monetary policy.

European bourses extended on losses since the cash open, despite no obvious catalyst to drive price action, and with no initial move seen in response to the German Ifo metrics - a release which on balance was better-than-expected. Sectors in Europe are lower across the board with Travel & Leisure and Basic Resources, and Consumer Products as the biggest laggards, while Healthcare, Energy, and Banks see their losses cushioned in comparison. US futures reversed their earlier gains and saw an acceleration in losses at one point despite a lack of fresh drivers at the time. The futures have since stabilised around flat levels intraday.

Top European News

  • UK PM Sunak is facing a renewed backlash from within the Tory party and opposition Labour politicians, as well as business executives and university leaders after the government refused to rule out scrapping the northern leg of the HS2 rail project, according to FT.
  • BoE is reportedly set to delay the implementation of some Basel III reforms for a further 6 months but will disappoint banks by reducing the phase-in period, according to FT.
  • ECB’s Villeroy said the recent increase in oil prices won’t derail the ECB’s fight to tame inflation and stated that patience is more important than raising rates further, according to Bloomberg citing an interview with France Inter ECB's Villeroy said maintaining the current level of interest rates will lower inflation, and sees a risk that the ECB could do too much in the future. He said they should focus on the persistence of rates rather than pushing rates up, and markets should not expect rate cuts before a sufficiently long time.
  • ECB's De Cos said must avoid insufficient and excessive tightening; and if rates are kept at the current 4.0% long enough, we should reach the 2% goal, according to Bloomberg.
  • Bundesbank faces hundreds of job reductions under a modernisation plan by Boston Consulting Group which was hired in an effort to make the central bank more agile and efficient, according to FT.
  • Italy revisited the windfall tax on banks to give lenders the option to boost reserves instead of paying a levy, according to Reuters.
  • Germany is to scrap stricter building insulation standards to help prop up the struggling property sector and Chancellor Scholz is to meet property industry leaders today.

FX

  • DXY retains an underlying bid in the wake of recent Fed rhetoric underlining that inflation remains too high, while the USD also benefits from a retreat in the Yuan on the back of Evergrande woe plus ongoing weakness in the Yen and Franc on policy divergence dynamics.
  • AUD is among the laggards amid contagion from the Yuan and the decline in base metal prices, particularly iron and copper, while the CAD is underpinned by resilient crude prices.
  • Sterling slipped to a new multi-month low against the USD, whilst the Euro faded above 1.0650 against its US counterpart even though German Ifo survey metrics either beat or matched expectations. Instead, EUR/USD seemed more inclined to remarks from ECB’s Villeroy and de Cos backing the rates have peaked scenario.
  • Barclays on month-end rebalancing: model suggests strong USD buying vs. all majors as US equities have trimmed gains alongside a hawkish hold from the FOMC.

Fixed Income

  • Bears remain in control of proceedings as alluded to earlier, and momentum is building with little sign of underlying buyers turning the tide as more technical and psychological support levels are breached
  • Bunds have now been down to 128.87 from a peak at 129.56 that matched their previous Eurex close.
  • Gilts are now probing 95.50 to the downside after failing to retain 96.00+ status very early on Liffe, and T-note is rooted to the base of its 108-11/25+ range.
  • Yields are extending to fresh peaks, and there may be some respite for bonds if the 10-year German benchmark holds around 2.80% and its US equivalent is capped at circa 4.50%.

Commodities

  • Crude November futures are firmer intraday despite the firmer Dollar, downbeat mood across stocks, and the Chinese property woes overnight, underpinned by bullish fundamentals.
  • Dutch TTF prices are on the rise this morning despite bearish fundamentals at face value, with the Australian LNG strikes averted and Norway also ramping up gas output. There is no obvious reason for the surge in TTF prices which has also been gradual in nature.
  • Spot gold briefly topped its 200 DMA (1,925.93/oz) but remains within Friday’s USD 1,918.95-28.89/oz range, while spot silver briefly rose above its 50 DMA at USD 23.63/oz before reversing back to session lows.
  • Base metals are lower across the board, with the initial downside emanating from the losses across Chinese property names overnight, while the deterioration in sentiment in the European morning keeps industrial metals under pressure.
  • Saudi Foreign Minister said the kingdom is keen to maintain stability, reliability, sustainability and security of oil markets, according to Reuters.
  • EU energy official said Europe will have to rely on US fossil fuels for decades, according to FT.
  • Russia mulls tweaks to exempt some oil productions from the export ban; Exemptions on bunker fuel and gasoils from its fuel ban, via Bloomberg.

Geopolitics

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he met with Mike Bloomberg and other top US financiers during his US visit to discuss reconstruction and investment, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the Ukraine peace formula is not feasible, while he stated regarding the latest proposals by the UN Secretary-General to revive the Black Grain deal that they do not reject them but noted the proposals are simply not realistic, according to Reuters.
  • Iranian President Raisi told CNN that Iran has not said it does not want IAEA nuclear inspectors in the country, while he added that Israeli normalisation with Gulf Arab states will see no success.
  • Iran’s intelligence ministry said 30 simultaneous explosives were neutralised in Tehran and 28 terrorists were arrested.
  • French President Macron announced that France is to end its military cooperation with Niger in the months ahead following the military coup and decided to recall its ambassador from the African country, according to Reuters.
  • US President Biden’s administration is reportedly in talks for a major arms transfer to Vietnam that may include fighter jets.
  • Philippines strongly condemned the Chinese Coast Guard’s installation of a 300-metre floating barrier preventing Filipino boats from entering the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.05, prior 0.12
  • 10:30: Sept. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -13.0, prior -17.2

Central Bank speakers

  • 18:00: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's nice to get back to the free form creativity of research after an highly scheduled weekend in sole charge of the kids as my wife went on a reverse hen do (2yrs after a covid wedding!). I was given a 3-page itinerary and instructions that included meal plans, 3 lots of swimming lessons, 2 separate golf lessons, violin and piano practise, Maths and English homework, a friend’s 8th birthday party and helping to design 2 fireworks posters. Oh and I had to lend the tooth fairy some money. I’m dropping them off to school this morning and then straight to the peace and quiet of a 7-hour flight to New York. Bliss.

This week one of the main highlights will take markets through a full on Back to the Future and Quantum Leap (my favourite show as a teenager) moment as the-every-5-years US GDP revisions take place on Thursday alongside the final Q2 2023 revisions (unch at 2.4% expected). DB's Brett Ryan talks about the revisions here but he discusses how GDP will be revised from Q1 2005 through Q1 2023, although revisions prior to the first quarter of 2013 will be offsetting across industries within each period. Gross domestic income (GDI) and select income components will be revised from Q1 1979 through Q1 2023. You'll see our CoTD from a couple of weeks ago here that discussed how the current big gap between US GDI and GDP could possibly be explained by erroneous recent data showing that net interest payments have been going down in the US as rates and yields have been soaring in the last 2 years. It's possible that revisions could make GDI look more healthy (interest payments add income to parts of the economy) but also make interest costs in the economy look more realistic and hurt fundamental models of interest cover for those indebted. This is just an educated guess at this stage. Anyway, the revisions are potentially an important event and could make us think differently about the US economy in the recent past and therefore the future. It's also possible not much changes of course. That would make a boring time travel movie though.

Outside of this the core PCE deflator on Friday is as important. Our economists point out that the data from the August CPI and PPI releases point to a slightly softer reading (+0.20% vs. +0.22% last month), which would have the effect of lowering the year-over-year growth rate by a little over 30bps (to 3.9%). As they highlight, the Fed's latest SEP forecast for Q4/Q4 core PCE inflation last week was 3.7%, which implies a modest re-acceleration in the monthly prints. This is one reason why our economists believe the bar is relatively high for the Fed to hike again before year-end. Staying with inflation, over in Europe, the flash September CPIs kick off with prints from Germany on Thursday. The numbers for the Eurozone, France and Italy will be out on Friday. Friday also sees Tokyo CPI which is an important economy wide lead indicator as the BoJ considers more radical changes to its monetary policy soon.

Elsewhere in the US we have new home sales and consumer confidence tomorrow, durable goods on Thursday with trade numbers and personal income and consumption numbers on Friday.

In Europe, Germany sees the Ifo survey today, consumer confidence on Wednesday and labour market data on Friday. In France, consumer confidence will be out on Wednesday and consumer spending data is due Friday. Sentiment gauges will also be out in Italy and the Eurozone on Thursday.

Asian equity markets are mostly retreating this morning with Chinese stocks leading losses amid persistent concerns over the property market after embattled real estate developer Evergrande Group indicated that it will be unable to issue new debt due to an ongoing government investigation into its unit Hengda Real Estate Group. In terms of specific index moves, the Hang Seng (-1.43%) is emerging as the biggest underperformer while the CSI (-0.62%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.42%) are also trading in negative territory. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.57%) is also weak in early trade while the Nikkei (+0.58%) is bucking the regional trend. US stock futures are indicating a rebound though with those on the S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.34%) moving higher. 10yr US yields are back up +2.4bps to 4.458% as I type .

This morning, Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace in my team have published the first instalment of their new series on the Future of Money – Cryptocurrencies: The return of faith, trust and, fairy dust. Focusing on the hot topic of cryptocurrencies, followed by a deep dive on stablecoins, they argue that despite the bankruptcies and negative news over the last 18 months, the crypto ecosystem has edged closer to the established financial sector. As a result, digital assets are here to stay. You can find their report here.

Looking back on last week now, we had a run of flash PMI data on Friday. Starting with the US, the flash composite PMI for September surprised to the downside at 50.1 (vs 50.4 expected), with services weaker at 50.2 (vs 50.7 expected) and at its lowest level since January. Manufacturing on the other hand was stronger than forecast, at 48.9 (vs 48.2 expected). Digging deeper, in the services PMI, the employment component bounced to 52.6, the highest level in a year, pointing to a still robust US labour market. All other details were on the softer side, with backlogs in particular at its lowest level since the pandemic, at 44.5.

The moderating activity signal of the PMIs on Friday helped US fixed income recoup some of its losses earlier in the week. US 10yr Treasury yields fell -6.1bps, and 2yr yields fell -3.4bps. However, 10yr yields still rose +10.1bps week-on-week to 4.435%, their highest weekly close since 2007. This followed on from the hawkish Fed meeting on Wednesday, and a strong weekly jobless claims print on Thursday that affirmed a higher-for-longer approach by the Fed. As such, the expected rate for December 2024 rose by +13.0bps week-on-week to 4.67% (-3.6bps Friday) .

The European PMIs were a bit more of a whirlwind relative to the US. The composite PMI surprised to the upside, rising +0.3pts to 47.1 (vs 46.5 expected). The increase was driven by a +0.5pts increase in services (48.4 vs 47.6 expected), while manufacturing was mostly unchanged at 43.4 (vs 44.0 expected). However, the interesting tidbit came with the divergence between France and Germany. For the former, the composite PMI surprised to the downside, falling to 43.5 (vs 46.0 expected), whereas German PMI rose to 46.2 (vs 44.7 expected). Off the back of this, German 10yr bund yields traded largely flat on the day (+0.3bps). In weekly terms, the 10yr bund yield followed the US, up +6.4bps.

Equities struggled last week against the backdrop of rising yields, as the S&P 500 fell -2.93% week-on-week (-0.23% Friday) in its largest down move since March (and its lowest level since early June). Tech stocks saw a modest outperformance on Friday, with the NASDAQ down a marginal -0.09%. However, the tech-heavy index slipped -3.82% in weekly terms, its third consecutive week of losses, and a c.8% decline from its July peak. In Europe, the STOXX 600 laboured last week, falling back -1.88% (and -0.31% on Friday).

Finally, in commodities, the oil price rally ran out of steam last week.Brent was down -0.70% to $93.27/bbl (-0.03% Friday) after rising by over +11% over the previous three weeks. WTI saw a similar down move of -0.82% to $90.03 (+0.45% Friday). Nonetheless, energy supply risks remained in focus last week. For instance, on Thursday Russia temporarily banned most gasoline and diesel exports with immediate effect .

We’ll see how we go this week as we hit the business month-end on Friday.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 08:28

Texas Deploys More Buses To Ship Illegal Immigrants To "At Capacity" Sanctuary Cities

Texas Deploys More Buses To Ship Illegal Immigrants To "At Capacity" Sanctuary Cities

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times,

Texas has expanded the scale of operations to transport illegal immigrants out of the state, adding two distressed border towns to the growing list of departure points for fleets of buses filled with illegal border-crossers.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Friday that he has directed the Texas Department of Emergency Management to deploy more buses to Eagle Pass and El Paso to transport those who illegally crossed the Texas-Mexico border to Democrat-led, self-proclaimed "sanctuary cities."

The buses in Eagle Pass and El Paso are being activated in addition to the ongoing state bus operations in Brownsville, Del Rio, Laredo, and McAllen.

"President [Joe] Biden's continued refusal to secure our border allows thousands of people to illegally cross into Texas and our country every day," the Republican governor said, noting that the move provides "much-needed relief" to Texas communities "overwhelmed and overrun" by the border crisis.

"Until President Biden upholds his constitutional duty to secure America's southern border, Texas will continue to deploy as many buses as needed to relieve the strain caused by the surge of illegal crossings."

Border Towns at Breaking Point

The announcement comes as Eagle Pass Mayor Rolando Salinas Jr., a Democrat, said more than 6,000 illegal immigrants have crossed into his city in just two days, and that thousands more are expected to to cross through in the coming days. The city itself has a population of only around 28,000.

"Nothing that we've seen ever really to have so many people crossing in without consequence and congregating at the international bridge," the mayor told Texas Public Radio, after signing a seven-day emergency declaration to "request financial resources to provide the additional services" caused by the severe illegal immigrant influx.

Meanwhile, in El Paso, where a recent wave of illegal border crossing brought over 2,000 individuals per day, shelter capacity and other resources are being strained to "a breaking point," city officials said. Just six weeks ago, the city was seeing about 350 to 400 people coming in per day.

"The city of El Paso only has so many resources and we have come to ... a breaking point right now," Mayor Oscar Leeser, a Democrat, said at a press conference on Saturday.

According to Mr. Leeser, about two-thirds of those new arrivals are single men. A estimated 32 percent of them are families, and about just 2 percent are unaccompanied children.

"I think it's really important to note that we have a broken immigration system," he said. "It's the same thing over and over again."

Buses Coming to Sanctuary Cities

Three buses carrying some three dozen illegal immigrants departed Eagle Pass for New York City on Friday, the New York Post reported, citing an eye-witness at the scene. Another bus reportedly left the border town for Chicago.

Frustrated with the swelling population of illegal immigrants in state and municipal governments' care, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called on would-be border crossers to "go somewhere else."

"We have to let the word out that when you come to New York, you're not going to have more hotel rooms," the Democrat governor said in an Sept. 21 interview with CNN.

"We don't have capacity, so we have to also message properly."

"The smarter thing is to apply for asylum before you leave your country," she added.

Ms. Hochul's remark comes as she explores the possibility of ending a decades-old mandate for New York City to provide a bed to anyone in need of one and for as long as they need it. Both she and New York Mayor Eric Adams blame the policy for becoming a magnet for illegal immigrants.

"Never was it envisioned that this would be an unlimited universal right or obligation on the city to have to house literally [the] entire world," she said at a Sept. 20 press conference.

"We want to make sure that no families end up on the streets. We don't want anything to happen to our children, but we also have to let the world know that there have to be limits to this."

The Abbott administration mocked the Democrat governor's complaints over the escalated illegal immigrant crisis, saying that her "hypocrisy" is "astounding."

"With millions of residents, New York is only dealing with a fraction of what our small border communities deal with on a day-to-day basis," spokesperson Andrew Mahaleris said in a statement.

"Instead of complaining about 14,000 migrants being bused to New York City from Texas, Governor Hochul should be calling out her party leader, President Biden, who has been flying plane loads of migrants to New York and oftentimes in the cover of night."

According to the Abbott administration, since April 2022, Texas has bused over 11,900 illegal immigrants to Washington, over 14,800 to New York City, over 8,700 to Chicago, over 3,000 to Philadelphia, over 1,500 to Denver, and most recently, 610 to Los Angeles.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 08:40

AOC Wants To Sell Her Tesla For Union-Made EV

AOC Wants To Sell Her Tesla For Union-Made EV

To remain relevant this week as President Biden heads to the picket line to support United Auto Workers, ultra-liberal New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday that she intends to trade her non-union-made Tesla for a union-backed Ford, General Motors, or Stellantis electric vehicle. 

When asked about her non-union-made Model 3 purchase during the pandemic, AOC said she's "looking into trading in our car now." She added, "So we're looking into it, and hopefully we will soon." 

.@AOC says she drives a non-union-made Tesla because she purchased it during the pandemic, "prior to some of the new models” of electric vehicles that are now available.

"We're actually looking into trading in our car now," she says.

"Hopefully we will soon." pic.twitter.com/69LrefYv01

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) September 24, 2023

AOC's move is about all optics as UAW strikes intensify and Democrats continue their crusade against billionaire Elon Musk.

According to Cars.com, the most American-made vehicles are the Model Y, Model 3, Model X, and Model S - all produced by Tesla. 

Democrats have to stop pitching their top priority is so-called 'climate change' and 'America first' while they ditch America's largest EV company for Big Three that continues to invest in gas-powered vehicles and source foreign parts. 

Yup

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 25, 2023

One X user asked

"What union made EV is she going to buy? Mach-E is made in Mexico. Chevy Equinox EV is made in Mexico. Chevy Blazer EV is made in Mexico. Chevy Bolt is being discontinued. Jeep EV is made in Poland. Does Chrysler have an EV? I only see a hybrid. Hybrids don't get us to net 0 and don't stop climate change." 

Why is AOC abandoning the american company and their many employees who are leading the world in transitioning to a sustainable future to instead reward company who keep building new products that pollute our planet and to reward the UAW, who once went on strike to slow the transition to EVs? Don't all american workers matter, or only some of them? 

Don't all American companies matter, or only if they are in a swing state? 

Remember last year when some Democrats sold their Teslas to buy some of the worst EVs on the market: Chevy Bolt... 

My pronouns are he/him, I believe in science, and I support Dr. Fauci. @elonmusk’s continued bad actions kept me from buying a @Tesla and now I am ecstatic to have a @UAW-made @chevrolet Bolt EUV in my driveway! pic.twitter.com/8Jj3kLjaEB

— Eric Sorensen (@ERICSORENSEN) December 12, 2022

Democrats have become the party of confusion. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/25/2023 - 09:00
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