Connexion
Authored by David Stockman via David Stockman's Contra Corner,
Speaker Johnson’s ignominious betrayal of fiscal sanity might well be the death knell for the GOP. He is apparently risking his speakership on behalf of $95 billion of foreign aid boondoggles that Uncle Sam cannot remotely afford, and which actually provide zero benefit to the homeland security of America. And we do mean zero, as in nothing, nichts, nada, nyet and nugatory, as we amplify below.
What Johnson’s impending Waterloo means, therefore, is not merely the prospect of another wild and wooly succession battle, but actually that there is no point at all in the preservation of a Republican majority and GOP House Speaker. After all, the Washington GOP has become so infected with neocon warmongers and careerist pols who spend a lifetime basking in the imperial projects and pretensions of the world’s War Capital that apparently the best the House GOP caucus could do when it ejected the previous careerist deep stater from the Speaker’s chair was to tap the dim-witted nincompoop who currently occupies it.
The Republican party is thus truly beyond redemption. As JFK once said about the CIA, its needs to be splintered into a thousand pieces and swept into the dustbin of history.
Indeed, when you look at the calamitous fiscal trajectory embedded in the CBO’s latest 30-year fiscal outlook, you truly have to wonder about what miniature minds like Congressman Johnson’s are actually thinking. That is to say, the latest CBO report published in March presumes that there will never be another recession and no inflation flare-up, interest rate spike, global energy dislocation, prolonged Forever War or any other imaginable crisis ever again—just smooth economic sailing for the next 30 years.
And yet, and then. Even by the math of this Rosy Scenario on steroids the public debt will reach $140 trillion at minimum by 2054. In turn, that would cause interest payments on the public debt with rates no higher than those which prevailed between 1986 and 1997 to reach $10 trillion per year.
You simply don’t need paragraphs, pages and whole monographs worth of analysis and amplification to understand where that is going. The nation’s fisc is now on the cusp of descending into the maws of a doomsday machine. So how in the world do these elements of Johnson’s offering make even the remotest sense?
Speaker Johnson's Foreign Aid Boondoggle:
Apparently, it’s because Johnson and a good share of the Washington GOP have succumbed wholesale to neocon paranoia, stupidity, lies and hollow excuses for warmongering. For crying out loud, Putin has no interest in molesting the Poles, to say nothing of storming the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin. He is certainly no Ghandi, but well more than smart enough to recognize that with Russia’s GDP of $2.2 trillion and war budget of $80 billion there would be no point in going to war with NATO’s $45 trillion of GDP and combined war budgets in excess of $1.2 trillion.
Likewise, China’s $50 trillion debt-ridden Ponzi would collapse in months if its $3.5 trillion flow of export earnings were disrupted after attempting to land its single modern aircraft carrier on the California coast. And Iran has no nukes, no intercontinental range missiles and a GDP equal to 130 hours of US annual output.
So, some Axis of evil!
Yet that’s exactly what the Speaker said this morning after going to too many Deep State briefings and apparently having his own johnson yanked once too often. The Swamp creatures surely see the lad’s naivete and blithering ignorance as a gift that doesn’t stop giving. That is to say, a “mark” who knows nothing at all about the world from sources not stamped, “Top Secret (lies)”.
Speaker Mike Johnson: “We’re going to stand for freedom and make sure that Putin doesn’t march through Europe… we’re the greatest Nation on the planet, and we have to act like it”,
This is a critical time right now, a critical time on the world stage. I can make a selfish decision and do something that’s different but I’m doing here what I believe to be the right thing. “I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. I really do. I really do believe the intel and the briefings that we've gotten.
I believe Xi, Vladimir Putin and Iran really are an axis of evil. I think they’re in coordination on it. “So I think that Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies.
To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is so many American families. This is not a game, this is not a joke.
Needless to say, our dufus Speaker doesn’t know the “Baltics” from the “Balkans” where Serbia and other Russian friendlies are definitely not quaking in their boots about Putin.
In point of fact, however, it is not hard to see that the civil war and territorial dispute between Kiev and Moscow over the Donbas and rim of the Black Sea from Mariupol to Odessa is a one-off of Russian and regional history and Washington’s mindless push of NATO eastward to Russia’s very doorstep.
The light-yellow area of this 1897 map gave an unmistakable message: To wit, in the late Russian Empire there was no doubt as to the paternity of the Donbas and the lands adjacent to the Azov Sea and the Black Sea. Already then, they were part of the 125 years-old New Russia, which had been assembled by purchase and conquest during the reign of Catherine the Great.
Indeed, it was only in 1922 that the yellow area—essentially demarcating the four provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which recently voted to rejoin Russia—was appended to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by the great humanitarian and map-maker, V. Lenin.
And yet Speaker Johnson now wants to crash the Republican Party on enforcing a map drawn by one of history’s bloodiest monsters. It’s come down to that.
That is to say, the war in Ukraine would stop tomorrow without another dime of aid from the US taxpayers if Washington agreed to partition the wholly artificial polity assembled by Lenin, Stalin (parts of Poland) and Khruschev (Crimea). In every presidential election in “Ukraine” since 1991 the electorate has essentially voted for separation via 80/20 pluralities in Novorossiya and Crimea for the pro-Russian candidate and 80/20 pluralities in the center and west for the Ukrainian nationalist.
That is, America’s national security would be undermined not one bit by a new map showing two countries and no war: That is, Novorossiya (New Russia) in the east and south, on the one hand, and the parts and pieces of Poland, Galicia-Austria and the Cossack Hetmanates in the center and west, on the other. Agree to keep NATO out of this rump state of Ukraine and it’s all over except the shouting.
Nevertheless, the insanity of the Russophobia which keeps knuckleheads like Johnson from having an even rudimentary grasp of the matter reveals an even larger issue.
Namely, it explains why Washington’s hegemonic foreign policy is a dysfunctional disaster, which unceasingly spawns madness like today’s $95 billion foreign aid boondoggle.
To wit, it encourages the Empire’s client and allied states to take bellicose positions vis a vis Washington designated rivals and enemies because it brings aid to their treasuries, weapons to their militaries and prestige and self-importance to their politicians and diplomats.
Thus, would Poland’s rightwing politicians always be barking at Russia, Russia, Russia in the absence of its NATO membership and US military and diplomatic shield? We sincerely doubt they would be poking the bear, but instead would be seeking friendly accommodation with a natural trading partner.
Likewise with Germany. The latter was apparently so petrified by a rescendant Russia that as recently as 2019 it spent the grand sum of just $50 billion and 1.3% of GDP on defense, while quite logically fueling its booming industrial and export economy with cheap Russian gas.
What has changed since then is not remotely Germany’s assessment of the Russian threat. What changed is client state politics. The Green Party entered the government coalition with the Social Democrats by beating the war-drums because they saw attacking Russia and Russian gas as a way to promote their hideous crusade against fossil fuel. And they did so with impunity, knowing that Washington’s military shield had their backs.
As to Tiawan’s client state politics, it’s not even a close call. Announce that Washington’s archaic “strategic ambiguity” policy– left over from the time of two departed demons, Mao Zedong and Chaing Kai Chek—has now also departed into the “inoperative” realm of Nixon-speak and you wouldn’t need any “Indo-Pacific” aid boondoggles, either.
To the contrary, Taiwan’s leaders would be scampering to Beijing for discussions of a “Hong Kong” transition in short order. America’s homeland security, of course, would be no worse for the wear—except for saving the cost of 100,000 servicemen in the Far East and the multi-trillion cost over time of patrolling the Pacific for the benefit of exactly what?
Then, of course, we get to the $26.4 billion for Israel. That’s about 4.5% of its GDP and should come out of its own war taxes, not Uncle Sam’s credit card. Moreover, it’s proof positive of the baleful impact of the Empire’s military shield and checkbook on client state politics. As we recently showed, Israel’s defense spending has been steadily plunging to less than 5% of GDP, even as its voters have repeatedly elected bellicose governments consisting of rightwing warmongers and fanatical religious factions.
These Netanyahu governments have consistently undermined a two-state solution to the Palestine problem, even going so far as to bless the transfer of billions of cash in suitcases to Hamas in order to undermine the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority.
Likewise, Netanyahu has wantonly demonized Iran mainly for the purpose of domestic politics and as a means to assemble 60+ vote coalitions in the Knesset.
Absent the US Navy and Air Force shield in the region, however, no Israeli government would have ever conducted unending assassination raids on that country or sabotaged on Capitol Hill Washington’s attempts at constructive arrangements with Iran like Obama’s nuke deal.
Indeed, absent Uncle Sam’s $4 billion annual gift and even more valuable regional military shield, Netanyahu and his extremist coalitions would have needed to raise taxes massively in Israel in order to fund their Garrison State war policies. We doubt the Israeli electorate would have tolerated the true cost of Netanyahu’s madness for very long.
At the end of the day, what Washington now needs is a break-up of the GOP and the formation of a Peace and Freedom party from the remnants of the conservative GOP and the dovish left. Both have been ejected from the UniParty by today’s Republican and Democrat denizens of the world’s War Capital.
So perhaps Johnson’s hari-kari act will bear some fruit, after all. Not as he intended, but in the good way that American democracy desperately needs at this fraught juncture.
Update (1710ET): 37-year-old Max Azzarello has been identified as the man who set himself on fire near the NYC courthouse where Donald Trump's 'hush money' trial is taking place. He is in critical condition in a burn unit, police said Friday.
Before setting himself on fire, Azzarello dropped a stack of pamphlets that led people to the "Ponzi Papers" substack - in which he writes: "My name is Max Azzarello, and I am an investigative researcher who has set himself on fire outside of the Trump trial in Manhattan."
Azzarello claims that a totalitarian conspiracy is in play, orchestrated by the U.S. government and its allies, aiming to impose a fascist world order.
This extreme act of protest is to draw attention to an urgent and important discovery:
We are victims of a totalitarian con, and our own government (along with many of their allies) is about to hit us with an apocalyptic fascist world coup.
These claims sound like fantastical conspiracy theory, but they are not. They are proof of conspiracy. If you investigate this mountain of research, you will prove them too. If you learn a great deal about Ponzi schemes, you will discover that our life is a lie. If you follow this story and the links below, you will discover the rotten truth of ‘post-truth America’. You will learn the scariest and stupidest story in world history. And you will realize that we are all in a desperate state of emergency that requires your action.
To my friends and family, witnesses and first responders, I deeply apologize for inflicting this pain upon you. But I assure you it is a drop in the bucket compared to what our government intends to inflict.
Because these words are true, this is an act of revolution. -The Ponzi Papers
Azzarello's manifesto focuses on the financial sector - particularly around recent banking crises and the role of cryptocurrencies. He suggests that the Silicon Valley Bank run, which was linked to Peter Thiel's actions and the subsequent collapse of Silvergate Bank, was no accident but part of a broader scheme involving cryptocurrencies as a global Ponzi scheme. He claims that cryptocurrencies were designed to destabilize the economy, implicating major corporations and elites in facilitating this financial upheaval. This scheme, he argues, has contributed to global inflation and is poised to cause even greater economic disruption.
He then expands to politics, alleging that that U.S. government has devolved into a 'secret kleptocracy,' pointing to bipartisan manipulation. According to Azzarello, the government perpetuates division and crisis to maintain control and distract from its exploitative operations. This, he asserts, leads inevitably towards a fascist state unless urgently addressed.
Lastly, he suggests that pop culture such as The Simpsons was designed to normalize dysfunction and distract from critical issues - and that the media is used by the elites in order to manipulate public perception and maintain the status quo that suppresses collective action against systemic injustices.
His solution? A revolution (and, of course, setting himself on fire):
Azzarello was reportedly active in the Anarcho-Communist forum on Reddit,
I've scraped Max Azzarello's Reddit history.
— Reddit Lies (@reddit_lies) April 19, 2024
Max stated on Reddit he was an Anarcho-Communist. https://t.co/lGYppf7IOP pic.twitter.com/Qe3P9hoZuO
He also took a photograph with former President Bill Clinton.
Here is Max Azzarello (the guy who lit himself on fire) with Bill Clinton. Just gonna drop this here... pic.twitter.com/DZcbRhaqCG
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 19, 2024
And went on a rant against Donald Trump, who he claims is "with Hillary" (and Biden) in the scheming department.
That’s the self emulation man’s sign, if anyone has doubts. pic.twitter.com/sQOQiEhwIm
— 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑖𝑠 (@chiIIum) April 19, 2024
Max Azzarello, the man who lit himself on fire outside the Trump trial, wrote this unhinged rant against Donald Trump. He suffered from serious TDS.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 19, 2024
TDS can be very harmful and deadly! pic.twitter.com/I9GFT5jmSc
More:
Here’s his Instagram https://t.co/X9Adwjvq2A pic.twitter.com/1Rm1R27Ple
— 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑖𝑠 (@chiIIum) April 19, 2024
This truck allegedly belongs to Max Azzarello, the guy who just lit himself on fire in NYC.
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 19, 2024
It just keeps getting crazier. pic.twitter.com/3xZMgShdsh
* * *
Update (1440ET):
"Latest: A man lit himself on fire outside courthouse where Trump trial underway, NYPD officials brief within hour. CNN team on the ground observed one of the flyers - it said "NYU is a mob front" and had various allegations of wrongdoings against the school," reports CNN's Jim Sciutto.
Latest: A man lit himself on fire outside courthouse where Trump trial underway, NYPD officials brief within hour. CNN team on the ground observed one of the flyers - it said "NYU is a mob front" and had various allegations of wrongdoings against the school.
— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) April 19, 2024
* * *
A disturbing video has surfaced on X showing a man setting himself on fire outside the courthouse in Midtown Manhattan where former President Trump's trial is taking place.
CNN is reporting:
The man walked into the park across the street from the courthouse, throwing flyers into the air, a senior law enforcement official told CNN. He then pulled something out of a backpack — it was not immediately clear what the item was — and lit himself on fire, the official said.
The media outlet continued:
Investigators are now fanning out to collect the flyers the unknown man threw into the air, another senior law enforcement official. A CNN team on the ground observed one of the flyers. It said "NYU is a mob front" and had various allegations of wrongdoings against the school.
The video is shocking.
BREAKING: A man just set himself on fire outside the Trump trial in New York City.pic.twitter.com/3Lg3amY08z
— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) April 19, 2024
What’s left of the man who set himself on fire in front of the NYC courthouse. pic.twitter.com/LDlCfnMNum
— Catch Up (@CatchUpFeed) April 19, 2024
Why did a CNN reporter oddly declare that there was an active shooter?
CNN reporter excitedly narrates a man burning himself to death like she’s Jim Nantz calling a touchdown in a playoff game
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) April 19, 2024
pic.twitter.com/sDJW4CXiYn
On X, Elon Musk asked: "Was he protesting against the trial or for it?"
Was he protesting against the trial or for it?
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 19, 2024
"It seems like Trump Derangement Syndrome is getting out of control," X account Planet Of Memes said.
It seems like Trump Derangement Syndrome is getting out of control.
— Planet Of Memes (@PlanetOfMemes) April 19, 2024
There is the possibility the man could be protesting the Israel-Hamas war as protests have flared up nationwide—still no official report on why the man decided to light himself on fire.
*Developing...
A 16-year-old High School student in North Carolina was suspended for three days after using the term "illegal alien" - a legal term of art, during a vocabulary assignment in his English class.
Leah McGhee, the boy's mother, says her son was assigned vocabulary words during class last Tuesday, which included the word 'alien,' the Carolina Journal reports. When her son asked; "Like space aliens or illegal aliens without green cards?" - another student in the class took offense and threatened to kick his ass, prompting the teacher to call in the assistant principal.
School administrators at Central Davidson High School in Lexington deemed his words 'offensive and disrespectful to classmates who are hispanic,' according to the report.
"I didn’t make a statement directed towards anyone; I asked a question," the suspended boy said in response to his suspension. "I wasn’t speaking of hispanics because everyone from other countries needs green cards, and the term “illegal alien” is an actual term that I hear on the news and can find in the dictionary."
According to the report, the boy's record could now be damaged as he aims to secure an academic scholarship for collage. He currently participates in school clubs, track, and cross country.
"Because of his question, our son was disciplined and given THREE days OUT of school suspension for ‘racism,’" his mother wrote in an email shared with the Journal. "He is devastated and concerned that the racism label on his school record will harm his future goal of receiving a track scholarship. We are concerned that he will fall behind in his classes due to being absent for three consecutive days."
Leah said the assistant principal has so far refused to remove the infraction from her son’s record. The family is working with an attorney to remedy the situation so it doesn’t harm his future, and they expect more developments in the days ahead.
Meanwhile, State Senator Steve Jarvis, R-Davidson, said he contacted the school district’s superintendent to make him aware of the situation. Jarvis told the Carolina Journal that while he informed top officials of the issue and urged officials to look for the best outcome, he did not take a stance on what they should do because he wasn’t there to understand all sides of the story. -Carolina Journal
"I do not see that that would be an offensive statement, just in getting clarification," said Sen. Jarvis. "But there again, I don’t know. I don’t know the situation of this particular incident."
Seems fairly clear, no?
In a statement to Newsweek, the high school said: "Please know that Davidson County Schools administrators take all discipline incidents seriously and investigate each one thoroughly," adding "Any violation of the code of conduct is handled appropriately by administrators."
Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,
The director of the FBI has warned that the Chinese state has its sights set on U.S. critical infrastructure to compromise U.S. economic and national security.
Speaking at the Vanderbilt Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats, Christopher Wray said:
“The PRC [People’s Republic of China] has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage, and that its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America’s will to resist.”
The head of the FBI also explained that the Chinese state has taken a hybrid approach to its efforts to weaken the United States, involving cybersecurity, counterintelligence, and crime.
The motivation for these efforts, according to Wray, was “driven by the CCP’s aspirations to wealth and power,” and the desire to “seize economic development in the areas most critical to tomorrow’s economy,” including through illegal means, such as theft.
With regard to critical infrastructure specifically, Wren said “The fact is, the PRC’s targeting of our critical infrastructure is both broad and unrelenting.”
“It’s using that mass, those numbers, to give itself the ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing,” the head of the FBI also said.
Wray referred to an ongoing hack attack dubbed Volt Typhoon which had opened up access for the hackers to a number of U.S. companies including pipeline operators. China, however, has denied any connection to Volt Typhoon, which Beijing said was a ransomware group, per a Reuters report.
"Some in the US have been using origin-tracing of cyberattacks as a tool to hit and frame China, claiming the US to be the victim while it's the other way round, and politicizing cybersecurity issues," the Chinese embassy in Washington said, as quoted by Reuters.
In a development that's sure to cause shudders at Democratic National Party headquarters, the independent campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr on Thursday officially secured a place on the ballot in tightly-contested Michigan. However, some polls point to Kennedy being a bigger threat to Trump in the state that has 15 electoral votes.
Michigan is considered one of seven battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election -- along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls generally show that the presence of independent and third-party candidates Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein provide a small benefit to Donald Trump.
With many Democratic electoral cornerstones wobbling -- including blacks, Hispanics and young people -- Blue Team is worried that Kennedy will peel off enough discontented Democrats to deliver victory to Trump. That's why Democrats are launching a multi-pronged attack on Kennedy, from legal challenges to his state ballot applications to hosting more than 15 Biden-endorsing Kennedy family members at a Philadelphia event on Thursday.
Democratic worries about Michigan are compounded by what happened in the state's February primary. In a protest of Biden's handling of the Israel-Gaza war, more than 13% of Democrats voted "uncommitted." The 100,000 who chose that option represented a block more than 9 times Donald Trump's 2016 victory margin.
However, two recent polls suggest the Trump campaign should be uneasy about Kennedy's Michigan ballot accomplishment.
With the uncertain Kennedy impact in mind, Trump's Make America Great Again PAC on Monday launched a "Radical F***ing Kennedy" website, which spotlights various Kennedy stances that are anathema to conservatives.
With less than 10 months to election day, Michigan is only the second state where Kennedy is officially on the ballot -- along with Utah. However, Kennedy's campaign and PAC say they've hit the signature requirements in many other states -- including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina -- and are awaiting the states' validation.
Earlier this week, Kennedy announced that, after having considered the option, he wouldn't pursue the Libertarian Party's nomination as a way of instantly achieving 50-state ballot access. "We're not gonna have any problems getting on the ballot ourselves so we won't be running Libertarian," Kennedy told ABC News. "We're going to add probably two to three states a week."
Kennedy won't officially be an independent in the Wolverine State: His name will appear on the ballot line of the obscure Natural Law Party, which was founded to solve political problems "through alignment with the 'Unified Field' of all the laws of nature through the use of the Transcendental Meditation." Once a fledgling national organization, its last remnants are in Michigan; Ralph Nader ran on the state party's line in 2008. “[Kennedy is] the most qualified candidate in the modern-day history of America,” said party chairman Doug Dern.
Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,
Joe Biden’s Secretary of Education, Miguel Cardona, threatened during a congressional hearing to weaponize the Department of Education to target and shut down the largest Christian university in the United States.
As Fox News reports, Cardona made his threats during a hearing before the House Appropriations Committee, in response to a question by far-left Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.). DeLauro attacked Grand Canyon University (CGU), falsely declaring it "a predatory for-profit school," to which Cardona said that “we are cracking down not only to shut them down, but to send a message to not prey on students.”
“You have a shiny brochure and a great commercial,” Cardona said.
“But the product is not worth the paper it’s written on. We have students graduating 60K to 70K dollars in debt, only eligible for jobs making under 30K. That to me is unacceptable.”
GCU has been accused of misleading students about the true cost of some of its doctoral programs, for which Cardona’s Education Department fined the university $37.7 million; the school is currently appealing that fine, which was implemented in November.
Past fines imposed by the Education Department on other schools were significantly smaller, with Penn State being fined just $2.4 million for its failure to deal with Jerry Sandusky’s sexual crimes; Michigan State was fined only $4.5 million for its similar failure to respond to the crimes of Larry Nassar.
In October, the department claimed that an investigation by the office of Federal Student Aid (FSA) determined that GCU had “lied” about the true costs of its doctoral programs to over 7,500 students, while presenting no evidence.
The department then gave GCU just 20 days to request a hearing with the department’s Office of Hearings and Appeals to object to the fine.
“Our next recourse after that decision would be another appeal within the Department, this time directly to the Secretary of Education,” said a GCU spokesman.
“Officials continue to make derogatory and inflammatory public statements that are legally and factually incorrect and not shared by any of the other 26 regulatory and accrediting bodies that oversee GCU,” the GCU spokesman continued.
“The Secretary’s comments to the House Appropriations Committee were so reckless that GCU is demanding an immediate retraction, as they do not reflect the factual record in this case. He is either confused, misinformed or does not understand the actions taken by his own agency.”
In response to Cardona’s threats, the American Principles Project (APP) has launched a petition to “protect Christian colleges.”
The petition says, in part, that in “light of the Biden administration’s unprecedented attacks on our nation’s largest Christian colleges,” the AFP and all signatories to the petition demand that “the administration halt their crusade and let students choose the schools that fit their values.”
Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is caught in one of the worst aviation crises in American history, as Boeing jets fall apart in mid-air and while on the runway. The latest near-disaster happened when a JetBlue flight nearly collided with a Southwest Airlines flight at Washington, DC's Reagan National Airport on Thursday morning.
For any Zero Hedge readers who are aviators, you already know that as a pilot in command in airspace controlled by a tower, you're putting complete trust in air traffic controllers to guide you on the most effective path possible without hitting other planes.
But that was almost not the case on Thursday morning when air traffic control instructed Southwest Airlines Flight 2937 to cross runway four at the airport while JetBlue Flight 1554 took off.
The audio is absolutely shocking. For any pilot, it sends shivers down your spine...
DCA TOWER: JetBlue 1554, Stop!
DCA GROUND: Southwest, Stop! Southwest 2937, Stop!
Southwest Pilot: We stopped. We were cleared to cross runway 4.
JetBlue Pilot: We're stopping, JetBlue 1554
southwest + jetblue planes nearly collided on the runway at Reagan airport in DC today
— Gregg Re (@gregg_re) April 18, 2024
ATC directed the southwest plane to cross a runway where the Jetblue plane was already cleared to takeoff
listen to the screams in the tower
video credit: @VASAviation pic.twitter.com/RDdiwLUNl2
This is not the first operational error by towers across US airports. In February 2023, a landing FedEx cargo plane nearly collided with a Southwest passenger at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport in Texas.
On Friday, FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker directed controllers to take ten hours off between shifts and a minimum of 12 straight hours off before a midnight shift.
Every pilot should be concerned about the FAA's latest DEI hiring spree of folks with "hearing, vision, missing extremities, partial paralysis, complete paralysis, epilepsy, severe intellectual disability, psychiatric disability, and dwarfism" problems.
Sigh, Buttigieg.
Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,
Russia was India’s single largest oil supplier for a second consecutive fiscal year, as surging imports of Russian crude dragged down the share of OPEC and Middle East supply to India to a record low, Reuters reported on Friday, citing data from tanker-tracking data obtained from industry sources.
In the 2023/2024 fiscal year ended March 31, the share of Middle East oil supply of India’s oil imports slumped to as low as 46% -- the lowest on record dating back to 2001-2002, according to the Reuters analysis. This compares with a 55% share of the Middle Eastern crude supply of Indian imports in the previous fiscal year 2022/2023.
The key driver of historically low Indian imports from the Middle East was the surge in Russian crude supply to the world’s third-largest oil importer.
Russia alone accounted for around 35% of all Indian crude oil imports in 2023/2024, per the data compiled by Reuters.
For the first time ever, India – which depends on imports for around 87% of its oil consumption – imported roughly equal volumes of OPEC and non-OPEC crude, thanks to the 57% annual surge in imports from non-OPEC producer Russia.
Higher prices of Saudi crude and lower Kuwaiti supply as Kuwait limited exports of some grades to direct them to a new refinery also contributed to the low share of the OPEC and Middle Eastern crude of India’s imports.
India’s crude imports remained flat in the 2023/2024 fiscal year, but the import bill of the world’s third-largest oil importer fell by almost 16% due to lower oil prices and record-high imports of cheaper Russian crude.
While volumes were essentially unchanged, India’s spending on crude oil imports dropped by 16%, to $132.4 billion in 2023/2024, down from the $157.5 billion import bill for the 2022/2023 fiscal year, provisional data from the Indian Oil Ministry showed earlier this week.
Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) has introduced the "Defund NPR Act" to pull federal funds from National Public Radio, after veteran journalist Uri Berliner - who resigned this week following a suspension for penning a scathing article which exposed the network's far-left bias, including the fact that the outlet's DC bureau employs 87 registered Democrats and no Republicans, the Daily Caller reports.
What's more, NPR CEO Katherine Maher - who once bragged about taking censorship orders from the feds as the head of Wikipedia, and said during a Ted Talk that "truth" is a "distraction" which is "getting in the way of getting things done," was called out for years worth of woke diatribes on X (formerly Twitter), including calling herself "someone with cis white mobility privilege," anger towards white men for flying business class, and defending looting.
"NPR’s new CEO is a radical, left-wing activist who doesn’t believe in free speech or objective journalism. Hoosiers shouldn’t be writing her paychecks. Katherine Maher isn’t qualified to teach an introductory journalism class, much less capable of responsibly spending millions of American tax dollars," Banks told the Daily Caller shortly before introducing the bill.
"NPR was a liberal looney bin under the last CEO John Lansing, and it’s about to get even nuttier. It’s time to pull the plug on this national embarrassment. Congress must stop spending other people’s hard-earned money on low grade propaganda," Banks added.
Great
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 18, 2024
Reuters is reporting a "massive" blast at an Iraqi base used by Iran-linked militias south of Baghdad in the overnight hours (local).
"A huge blast rocked a military base used by Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the south of Baghdad late on Friday," army sources said to Reuters.
Fires are still going at the Kalso base in Babel, Iraq after what appears to be an airstrike. pic.twitter.com/ipyZ1CgUxg
— Steven Nabil (@thestevennabil) April 19, 2024
Few other details have been given, but images are widely circulating online showing what indeed appears to be a very large-scale strike.
A number of regional correspondents have been quick to identify it as an American military airstrike; however, given the events of the night prior (the 'limited' attack on Iran), others are speculating it was the Israelis behind it.
On April 17, #Iraq's national security advisor Qasim Al Araji, a member of #IRGCterrorists-backed Badr Organization, said #Iran's regime's attack on #Israel on April 13 created "a new deterrent policy" in the region. And this is Israel's response to him tonight in Iraq: pic.twitter.com/u3T2bBMAL0
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) April 19, 2024
Both the Israelis and Americans have struck Iran-linked PMF bases before, mostly in Eastern Syria - but a strike on such a scale inside Iraq by Israel remains very rare or even unprecedented.
When does bitcoin price in this fake war for the third time?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 19, 2024
Of course, since this again takes place when he market is closed the only way to trade it is via bitcoin, where the algos have decided to price in the end of the world for the third time in 5 days.
* * *
The Pentagon later denied US forces were behind the strike...
We are aware of reports claiming that the United States conducted airstrikes in Iraq today. Those reports are not true. The United States has not conducted air strikes in Iraq today.
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) April 20, 2024
Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
Why are global health officials issuing such ominous warnings about the bird flu? Do they know something that the rest of us do not?
H5N1 has been circulating all over the planet for several years now, and it has been the worst outbreak that the world has ever seen. Hundreds of millions of birds are already dead, and now H5N1 has been infecting mammals with alarming regularity. The good news is that so far it has not been a serious threat to humans, but could that soon change?
According to the World Health Organization, the possibility that H5N1 could start spreading among humans is an “enormous concern”…
The increasing spread of bird flu to humans is an ‘enormous concern’, the World Health Organization has warned.
The virus, an extremely deadly H5N1 subtype, has caused devastating declines in bird populations following its emergence in Europe in 2020.
It has since jumped to mammals such as cows, cats, seals and now people, raising the risk of the virus mutating to become more transmissible.
The fact that so many different types of mammals are now being infected is definitely alarming.
But perhaps cows would not be getting infected if we were not literally feeding them chicken crap…
As epidemiologists scramble to figure out how dairy cows throughout the Midwest became infected with a strain of highly pathogenic avian flu — a disease that has decimated hundreds of millions of wild and farmed birds, as well as tens of thousands of mammals across the planet — they’re looking at a standard “recycling” practice employed by thousands of farmers across the country: The feeding of animal waste and parts to livestock raised for human consumption.
“It seems ghoulish, but it is a perfectly legal and common practice for chicken litter — the material that accumulates on the floor of chicken growing facilities — to be fed to cattle,” said Michael Hansen, a senior scientist with Consumers Union.
It is not known if eating chicken crap is why so many cows in so many different states are being infected with H5N1.
But at a time when the bird flu is running rampant among chickens and turkeys, it seems very foolish to take chicken crap and feed it to our cows.
In any event, now there is a lot of panic about the potential for an H5N1 outbreak among humans.
Authorities at the WHO are warning that the death rate would be “extraordinarily high” if such an outbreak were to occur…
Experts at the WHO said humans face an ‘extraordinarily high’ mortality rate if the strain were to take hold, currently killing more than half of those infected.
I agree.
The bird flu is very dangerous, and if it starts spreading among humans on a widespread basis a lot of people will die.
So why are U.S. taxpayer dollars being used to fund experiments in China that are specifically designed to make bird flu viruses even more deadly? The following comes from an extremely shocking Daily Mail article…
Lawmakers are demanding answers after it was revealed the US is sending taxpayer dollars to a Chinese army lab to make bird flu viruses more dangerous to people.
Eighteen members of Congress are demanding answers from the Department of Agriculture (USDA) about the project, which was first revealed by DailyMail.com.
It is part of a $1million collaboration between the USDA and the CCP-run Chinese Academy of Sciences – the institution that oversees the Wuhan lab at the center of the Covid lab-leak theory.
In a scathing letter to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack last week, the bipartisan group said: ‘This research, funded by American taxpayers, could potentially generate dangerous new lab-created virus strains that threaten our national security and public health.’
As I warn in my latest book, mad scientists all over the globe are taking some of the most deadly bugs even known to humanity and are purposely trying to make them even more deadly.
And way too often, your tax dollars are paying for it.
Of course experiments on H5N1 are not new.
Over a decade ago, gain of function experiments that were funded by Dr. Francis S. Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci actually created a mutant version of H5N1 that “had gained the ability to spread through the air between ferrets”…
And yet in late 2011 the world learned that two scientific teams – one in Wisconsin, led by virologist Yoshihiro Kawaoka, and another in the Netherlands, led by virologist Ron Fouchier – had potentially pushed the virus in that direction. Each of these labs had created H5N1 viruses that had gained the ability to spread through the air between ferrets, the animal model used to study how flu viruses might behave in humans.
The ultimate goal of this work was to help protect the world from future pandemics, and the research was supported with words and funding by two of the most prominent scientists in the United States: Dr. Francis S. Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Why would they purposely create such a thing?
Ferrets were specifically chosen for that research because they have respiratory systems that are very similar to humans.
Our ability to create deadly diseases far exceeds our ability to control them, and once something gets out it can spread around the globe in the blink of an eye.
Right now, there is a lot of concern about a “mystery respiratory illness” that has suddenly appeared in Argentina…
A mystery respiratory illness has hospitalised dozens of people in Argentina in an outbreak that shares eerie similarities with Covid’s arrival.
Sixty patients have been sickened with ‘severe atypical pneumonia’ in the capital, Buenos Aires.
An alert about the cluster of cases was last night circulated via an international public health surveillance system.
Covid was brought to the attention of the world in late 2019 as a result of the same database, called ProMed.
Hopefully this will turn out to be nothing.
But it is just a matter of time before more great pestilences ravage our planet.
Will H5N1 be one of them?
I don’t know, but this is a story that I will definitely be watching closely.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,
There are many myths about energy and the economy. In this post I explore the situation surrounding some of these myths.
My analysis strongly suggests that the transition to a new Green Economy is not progressing as well as hoped.
Green energy planners have missed the point that our physics-based economy favors low-cost producers.
In fact, the US and EU may not be far from an economic downturn because subsidized green approaches are not truly low-cost.
The focus on ownership of condominium homes is beginning to unwind, with huge repercussions for the Chinese economy. In March, new home prices in China declined by 2.2%, compared to a year earlier. Property sales fell by 20.5% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period a year ago, and new construction starts measured by floor area fell by 27.8%. Overall property investment in China fell by 9.5% in the first quarter of 2024. No one is expecting a fast rebound. The Chinese seem to be shifting their workforce from construction to manufacturing, but this creates different issues for the world economy, which I describe in Section [6].
In the US, the rate of growth was only 3.3% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 47% one year ago. Tesla has made headlines, saying that it is laying off 10% of its staff. It also recently reported that it is delaying deliveries of its cybertruck. A big issue is the high prices of EVs; another is the lack of charging infrastructure. If EV sales are to truly expand, they will need both lower prices and much better charging infrastructure.
A forecast made by the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie indicates that US solar panel installations by homeowners are expected to fall by 13% in 2024. There are many issues involved: higher interest rates, less generous subsidies to homeowners, not enough grid capacity for new generation, and too much overproduction of electricity by solar panels in the spring and fall, when heating and air conditioning demand is low. The overproduction issue is particularly acute in California.
For each individual 24-hour day, the timing of solar energy production does not match up well with when it is needed. With sufficient batteries, solar electricity produced in the morning can help run air conditioners in the evening. But storage from summer to winter is still not feasible, and batteries for short-term storage are expensive.
Strangely enough, in the US and the EU, when wind and solar are added to the electric grid, electricity supplies seem to get tighter. For example, one article says, Most of US electric grid faces risk of resource shortfall through 2027, NERC [regulatory group] says.
Charts of electricity supply per capita show an unusual trend when wind and solar are added. Figure 1 shows that, in the US, once wind and solar are added, total electricity generation per capita falls, rather than rises!
Figure 1. US per capita electricity generation based on data of the US Energy Information Administration. (Data is through 2023, even though this is not easy to see from the labels.)
The EU, using a somewhat shorter history period, shows a similar pattern of declining total electricity generation per capita, even when wind and solar are added (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Electricity generation per capita for the European Union based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.
I believe that the strange pricing systems used for wind and solar in the US and EU are driving out other electricity suppliers, especially nuclear. With this system, intermittent electricity enjoys the subsidy of going first at the regular wholesale market rate. Other providers find themselves with very low or negative wholesale rates in the spring and fall of the year and on weekends and holidays. As a result, their overall return falls too low. Nuclear is particularly affected because it requires a huge, fixed investment, and it cannot be ramped up and down easily.
Besides the foregoing issues affecting the supply of electricity generated, there are also factors affecting the demand for electricity. Electricity generation using wind and solar tends to be high priced when all costs are included. The US and EU are already high-cost areas for businesses to operate. High electricity rates further add to the impetus to move manufacturing and other industry to lower-cost countries if businesses desire to be competitive in the world market.
On a world basis, in 2022, wind and solar added about 13% to total world electricity generation (Figure 3).
Figure 3. Electricity generation per capita for the World based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.
Based on Figure 3, with the addition of wind and solar, the upward slope of the world per capita electricity generation has been able to remain pretty much constant from 1985 to 2022, at about 1.6% per year. But the US and the EU, as high-cost producers of goods and services, haven’t been able to participate in this per capita growth of electricity.
Instead, China has been a major beneficiary of the shift of manufacturing overseas from the US and EU. It has been able to rapidly increase its electricity supply per capita, even with wind and solar. It has also been adding both nuclear and coal-fired electricity generation capacity.
Figure 4. Electricity generation per capita for China based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.
Thus, this analysis produces the result a person would expect if the physics of the world economy favors efficient (low-cost) producers.
Both EV production and AI are heavy users of electricity supply. We have seen that the US and the EU no longer have growing per-capita electricity supplies. Ramping up electricity generation would require a long lead time (10 years or more), a major increase in fossil fuel consumption, and an increase in electricity transmission lines.
The State of Georgia, in the United States, is already running into this issue, with planned data centers (related to AI) and EV manufacturing plants. The state plans to add new gas-fired electricity generation. It will also import more electricity from Mississippi Power, where the retirement of a coal-fired plant is being delayed to provide the necessary additional electricity. Eventually, more solar panels are planned, as well.
The world economy depends upon a growing bubble of debt. It also depends on an ever-increasing supply of goods and services. In fact, the two are closely interrelated. As long as a growing supply of low-priced energy of the types used by built infrastructure is available, the economy tends to sail along.
China, with problems in its property business, is an example of what can go wrong when energy supplies (coal in China) become expensive, as supply becomes increasingly constrained. Figure 5 shows that China’s per-capita coal supply became constrained in about 2013. China’s per capita coal extraction had been rising, but then it dipped. This made it more difficult for builders to construct the homes planned for would-be homeowners. This is part of what got home builders in China into financial difficulty.
Figure 5. Per capita coal supply in China based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, prepared by the Energy Institute. Amounts are through 2022.
Finally, in 2022, China was able to get coal production up. But the way this was done was through very high coal prices (Figure 6). (The prices shown are for Australian coal, but Chinese coal prices seem to be similar.)
Figure 6. Newcastle Coal (Australia) prices in chart prepared by Trading Economics.
Building concrete homes at such high coal prices would have resulted in new homes that were far too expensive for most Chinese citizens to afford. If builders were not already in difficulty from low supply, adding high coal prices, as well, would be a second blow. Furthermore, all the workers formerly engaged in home building needed new places to earn a living; the current approach seems to be to move many of these workers to manufacturing, so that the popping of the home building bubble will have less of an impact on the overall economy of China.
There is now concern that China is ramping up its manufacturing, particularly for exports, at a time when China’s jobs in the property sector are disappearing. The problem, however, is that ramping up exports of manufactured goods creates a new bubble. This huge added supply of manufactured goods can only be sold at low prices. This new low-priced competition seems likely to lead to manufacturers, around the world, obtaining too-low prices for their manufactured products.
If other economies around the world are forced to compete with even lower-cost goods from China, it could have an adverse impact on manufacturing around the world. With low prices, manufacturers are likely to lay off workers, or give them excessively low wages. If wages and prices are inadequate, debt bubbles in other parts of the world are likely to collapse. This will happen because many borrowers will become unable to repay their debt. This is the reason that we have been hearing a great deal recently about raising tariffs on Chinese exports.
I have pointed out previously that based on physics considerations, economies cannot be expected to be permanent structures. Economies and humans are both self-organizing systems that grow. Humans get their energy from food. Economies are powered by the types of energy products that our built infrastructure uses. Neither can grow forever. Neither can get along without energy products of the right types, in the right quantities.
We become so accustomed to the narratives we hear that we tend to assume that what we are told must be right. These narratives could be based on wishful thinking, or on inadequate models, or on a sour grapes view that says, “We don’t want fossil fuels anyhow.” We know that humans need food, and that economies will continue to require fossil fuels. We can’t make wind turbines or solar panels without fossil fuels. What do we plan to do for energy without fossil fuels?
In a finite world, economies cannot continue forever. We don’t know precisely what will go wrong or when it will go wrong, but we can get a hint from the recent failures of myths that our economy may change dramatically in the not-too-distant future.
Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,
Republican Rep. Majorie Taylor-Greene has proposed an amendment requiring lawmakers who vote in favor of the $60 billion Ukrainian aid bill to join Ukraine's military. Taylor-Greene and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) have pledged to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from his post if he allows a floor vote on the aid package.
In a social media post, Axios Capitol Hill reporter Juliegrace Brufke shared the text of the new amendment to the $61 billion Ukraine aid bill that has been stalled for months in Washington. The measure states, "Any Member of Congress who votes in favor of this Act shall be required to conscript in the Ukrainian military."
"If you want to fund the endless foreign wars, you should have to go fight them," Taylor-Greene posted on X. "That’s why I’m introducing an amendment that would require any Member of Congress who votes for the multibillion [dollar] Ukraine supplemental to enlist in Ukraine’s military."
The Georgia Republican also introduced amendments that would direct funding from Ukraine to space lasers to defend the southwest border, or aid to Americans impacted by a major train derailment in Ohio and wildfires in Hawaii.
Taylor-Greene introduced the amendments in retaliation after House Speaker Johnson broke an earlier pledge to block additional funding for the Ukraine proxy war unless Congress authorized significant funding for US immigration enforcement and various border reforms.
Johnson plans to have the House vote on a series of four bills that will provide $61 billion to Ukraine, $26 billion to Israel, and $8 billion to Taiwan. The fourth bill is expected to be called a "national security" law that includes a TikTok ban and gives the president the power to sell off frozen Russian assets and transfer the money to Ukraine.
In addition to the amendment, Taylor-Greene has called to oust Johnson from the speakership over his broken promise. The congresswoman has been joined by Massie, which means Johnson would not survive a removal vote without support from Democrats.
Taylor-Greene’s effort to stymie the Ukraine aid package has drawn the ire of some of her colleagues. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) introduced two amendments smearing the lawmaker as an agent of Russia.
The amendment says Taylor-Greene has "repeatedly attempted to block aid to Ukraine, empowering Vladimir Putin’s unlawful violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity." The congresswoman has vocally embraced an ‘America First’ philosophy and has explained that continued funding for the war in Ukraine does nothing to benefit Americans.
If you want to fund the endless foreign wars, you should have to go fight them.
— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) April 18, 2024
That’s why I’m introducing an amendment that would require any Member of Congress who votes for the multibillion $ Ukraine supplemental to enlist in Ukraine’s military.
More: https://t.co/kTtrCUcglS
Taylor-Greene has also pointed to Kiev’s undemocratic policies and the sizable neo-Nazi presence within its military as other reasons for opposing the $61 billion aid bill. Moskowitz later attacked Taylor-Greene for highlighting the hardline elements in Ukraine’s armed forces.
"Stop bringing up Nazis and Hitler. The only people who know about Nazis and Hitler are the 10 million people and their families who lost their loved ones – generations of people who were wiped out,” Moskowitz said. “It is enough of this disgusting behavior, using Nazis as propaganda … You want to talk about Nazis? Get yourself over to the Holocaust Museum. You go see what Nazis did."
However, Moskowitz has repeatedly invoked the Nazi label to further his own political agenda, once declaring that X was "crawling with Nazi termites" and later claiming Hamas has similar goals to the Third Reich.
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
It's nice to anticipate sunny weather, but it's a good idea to carry an umbrella just in case the forecasts prove overly optimistic.
Yes, the market will rally if World War III didn't start last night. The market will also rally if World War III does start, because the Federal Reserve will surely lower interest rates.
We chuckle uneasily at gallows humor here on Uneasy Street because we're still required to maintain an upbeat veneer of endlessly cheerful optimism even as we sense that the forces currently in play are beyond the control of individuals or groups, no matter how powerful they may be, and that these forces will follow a course to an end no one can predict with any degree of upbeat confidence.
Back when we lived on Easy Street, things were getting better for everyone in varying degrees and the ladder of social mobility was available to all: anyone could improve their prospects by putting in the effort.
Fortunes were being minted, lists of reasons to be optimistic proliferated like overfed rabbits and spots of bother ran off the road on their own, requiring nothing of us.
Life on Uneasy Street is, well, different. The lists of reasons to be optimistic are still everywhere, but they now ring hollow, as those conjuring the lists sound increasingly frantic: come on, people, get with the program, it's all gonna be wunnerful, AI, AI, AI, Roaring 20s, blah blah blah.
The only true believers are those paid to shill the optimism by those seeking to maximize their profits via selling the sizzle rather than the actual steak. The entire exercise of trying to convince us that we still live on Easy Street is simply more evidence that Easy Street is a figment of imagination.
Now that various forces have been unleashed, gravity and the lay of the land will dictate the course of history. Yes, yes, our technological powers are god-like, we're going to Mars, there's a new (and immensely profitable, of course) technological solution to every problem, so just buy, buy, buy the latest gadget or med: imagine that, you can talk to your refrigerator! Wow. That solves a ton of pressing problems.
Too bad the fridge fails in a few years and has to be replaced, the med must be taken forever or your ill health returns, the side effects require a couple more meds, each of which has their own side effects, and going to Mars has no causal connection to actually solving problems here on Earth with some new technology.
Cycles play out despite our cheerleading inspirational rah-rah. Humans respond the same old way to the tightening of various screws: they start hoarding what's scarce, start seeing conquest and war as the go-to solutions to scarcities and rivalries, reasons to cooperate wither under the relentless sun of crisis while reasons to disagree proliferate most disagreeably like noxious weeds.
Just like all the other creatures on the planet, humans expand their consumption and numbers in times of plenty and are unprepared for the inevitable asymmetries of supply (stagnant or declining) and demand--forever rising, as growth is the one essential for the status quo, regardless of ideological type or label.
As supplies no longer exceed demand, inflation (loss of purchasing power of wages) eats the bottom 90% alive, while the rise of debt that so wondrously expanded the asset wealth of the top 10% starts eating its own tail, as interest rises faster than wages or actual production.
Various grandiose solutions are promoted that claim to fix the pressing problems. Some are absurd techno-fantasies (huge mirrors to deflect solar radiation--never mind the increasingly untenable cloud of space junk orbiting Earth), and some sound appealing but are not as painless as advertised, for example, the clearing away of all debt with a jubilee in which all debts are instantly forgiven.
A debt jubilee is certainly appealing to debtors and those who see the cliff ahead, but recall that all debt is an asset that is holding up an asset class far larger than the debt itself: mortgage debt is what props up the entire global real estate market, and what happens to valuations when debt ceases to exist?
Those who see jubilee as a solution also tend to ignore that all this debt is an asset of which 90% is owned by the wealthy class who run the status quo. Every bond, every mortgage-backed security and every bundled student loan / auto loan is an asset owned by someone or some entity who depends on that asset and its income stream for their wealth and thus their political power.
To hazard a guess based on human history, the wealthy / powerful will probably not be too keen to surrender the vast majority of their wealth and thus their power in the laudable pursuit of eliminating all debt and starting over.
Again based on the usual human responses to decay, decline, scarcities and threats to "what's mine," we can anticipate the elite's preference for a messy, chaotic form of jubilee in which various borrowers default and the underlying assets that provided collateral for the loan will be liquidated.
The elite hope that this messy, chaotic form of jubilee will reduce the debt so gradually that the system that benefits them will continue on its merry way. This hope is misplaced, however, for when collateral gets auctioned off at bargain prices, the value of all other similar assets drops accordingly.
And since nobody wants to catch the falling knife of crashing valuations, buyers are scarce, so the selling begets more selling and prices are pressured lower. Those who reckoned they were "buying the bottom" are wiped out, increasing the reluctance of survivors to take the risk of buying assets which could get much cheaper.
Soaring defaults tend to self-reinforce via feedback as the herd gets skittish and the appetite for risk vanishes like early morning mist in Death Valley. As buyers of crashing assets are carried out on stretchers, those who still own the sinking assets are watching their treasured wealth disappear, so they sell--at first with high expectations, and eventually in pure panic.
The future looks cloudy here on Uneasy Street, and everyone's still hoping for sunny days rather than a deluge. It's nice to anticipate sunny weather, but it's a good idea to carry an umbrella just in case the forecasts prove overly optimistic.
Here are three snapshots of what we're told is Easy Street: global debt skyrocketing:
Federal debt skyrocketing:
Financial wealth of the bottom 50% plummeting:
But think of the opportunities pre-cliff-dive:
As assets are liquidated, look for "likes" and upbeat Yelp reviews:
* * *
We've previewed the shit out of this 'halving' (here, here, here, and here most recently) and now it's here.
As Bitcoin Magazine notes, this halving event – projected to occur within the next few hours – will occur as Bitcoin reaches block 840,000, marking the point at which its relative supply issuance will drop below that of gold for the first time.
Previous halvings have historically acted as a turning point in the market as the reduction in newly issued coins has been met with surging demand for the currency throughout each prior halving cycle.
As a reminder, this is part of Bitcoin’s design, which is hard-coded into the protocol, limiting the total Bitcoin supply to 21,000,000 BTC. New Bitcoin is issued through mining rewards that have been reducing roughly every four years. In the latest, 4th halving episode, the mining reward will be cut from the 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.
This time around, the halving has been preceded by a new all-time high, an occurrence that has never happened since Bitcoin’s inception in January 2009.
Between the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States (arguably the most successful ETF debut in history) by major financial institutions, and a potential resurgence in inflation, the Bitcoin bulls are on parade driving the market higher into uncharted territory.
Net flows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs have become more balanced. Overall, the magnitude of fresh inflows/outflows and the net flows have fallen over the course of last month.
But, as Goldman Sachs points out, the impact of US Spot Bitcoin ETFs on BTC supply is notable.
At present, the US Bitcoin ETFs are holding about $53b in assets (Bloomberg), which is about 835k Bitcoin.
This corresponds to the US Spot BTC ETFs holding :
4.25% of total Bitcoin supply
6.20% of Bitcoin supply that was active in the last 5 years
12.40% of Bitcoin supply that was active in the last year
In celebration of the historic fourth Bitcoin halving and to ring in a new epoch in sound money, Bitcoin Magazine and Kraken are Livestreaming the event.
This event will bring together prominent voices in the Bitcoin space including Barstool CEO Dave Portnoy, Strike CEO Jack Mallers, Bitcoin Magazine Institutional Lead Dylan LeClair, and Ten31 Managing Partner Matt Odell.
Other guests slated to appear on the livestream are Bitcoin Magazine Chief Content Officer Pete Rizzo, Human Rights Foundation Director of Financial Freedom Christian Keroles, Simply Bitcoin Founder Nico Moran, Bitcoin Magazine Correspondent Isabella Santos, and Pomp Investments Founder Anthony Pompliano.
In the countdown to Bitcoin’s fourth epoch, Livestream guests will review the Top 21 Moments of the past four years, as voted on by Bitcoin Magazine readers.
Top moments include the rise of the Laser Eyes meme, MicroStrategy unveiling of its bitcoin-based treasury strategy, and the notorious rise and fall of disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. In partnership with Nitrobetting, Bitcoin Magazine will be awarding a 1 BTC prize pool for the Bitcoin Halving Challenge to contestants who most closely predict the price of the currency at Block 840,000.
Viewers will be able to count down to the halving with some of the biggest names in the space and commemorate the growth of Bitcoin with a New Year’s Eve-style celebration with Bitcoiners from around the world.
The full roster of Livestream participants can be seen on www.BitcoinHalving.com and viewers can tune in on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel, Twitter (X), LinkedIn, Rumble and Facebook.
Watch the Livestream here (due to begin when the block height reaches 839,974):
On the heels of a major deposit outflow the week before, and a huge (record) money-market fund outflow last week, all eyes are back on the banks again on Friday evening to see if this 'flight' continues as Tax-Day drags cash away from its comfy-5%-earnings-spots.
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total US bank deposits declined for the second straight week (though only $2.4BN) after reaching back to pre-SVB levels...
Source: Bloomberg
And once again - like last week, and rather oddly giving the tax-day' timing - non-seasonally-adjusted bank deposits rose $16BN, now well above pre-SVB levels...
Source: Bloomberg
Is some of the money-market cash being moved (temporarily) into bank deposits before heading out to tax man?
Source: Bloomberg
Historically, it appears NEXT week is when we see the Tax-Day decline in the NSA data...
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign deposits, domestic bank deposits did fall on both an SA (-$2.9BN - large banks -$14.8BN, small banks +11.9BN) and NSA (-$12bn - large banks -$24BN, small banks +12BN) basis.
Source: Bloomberg
But, unlike last week when deposits dropped, we saw bank loan volumes rise (not fall) in the week ending 4/10 with large bank voilumes rising 0.65BN and small bank volumes rising $7.3BN...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we detailed earlier, it appears the reality of bank reserves at The Fed is slowly (but surely) catching up with US equity market cap...
Source: Bloomberg
That's going to get awkward in an election year...
Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,
“Whether he wrote DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER, or whether he refrained from writing it, made no difference ... The Thought Police would get him just the same ... the arrests invariably happened at night ... In the vast majority of cases there was no trial, no report of the arrest. People simply disappeared, always during the night. Your name was removed from the registers, every record of everything you had ever done was wiped out, your one-time existence was denied and then forgotten. You were abolished, annihilated: vaporized was the usual word.”
- George Orwell, 1984
The government long ago sold us out to the highest bidder.
The highest bidder, by the way, has always been the Deep State.
What’s playing out now with the highly politicized tug-of-war over whether Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act gets reauthorized by Congress doesn’t just sell us out, it makes us slaves of the Deep State.
Read the fine print: it’s a doozy.
Just as the USA Patriot was perverted from its stated intent to fight terrorism abroad and was instead used to covertly crack down on the American people (allowing government agencies to secretly track Americans’ financial activities, monitor their communications, and carry out wide-ranging surveillance on them), Section 702 has been used as an end-run around the Constitution to allow the government to collect the actual content of your conversations (phone calls, text messages, video chats, emails and other electronic communication) without a warrant.
Now intelligence officials are pushing to dramatically expand the government’s spying powers, effectively giving the government unbridled authority to force millions of Americans to spy on its behalf.
Basically, the Deep State wants to turn the American people into extensions of Big Brother.
As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) explains:
“If you have access to any communications, the government can force you to help it spy. That means anyone with access to a server, a wire, a cable box, a Wi-Fi router, a phone, or a computer. So think for a moment about the millions of Americans who work in buildings and offices in which communications are stored or pass through.
After all, every office building in America has data cables running through it. The people are not just the engineers who install, maintain, and repair our communications infrastructure; there are countless others who could be forced to help the government spy, including those who clean offices and guard buildings. If this provision is enacted, the government can deputize any of these people against their will, and force them in effect to become what amounts to an agent for Big Brother—for example, by forcing an employee to insert a USB thumb drive into a server at an office they clean or guard at night.
This could all happen without any oversight whatsoever: The FISA Court won't know about it, Congress won't know about it. Americans who are handed these directives will be forbidden from talking about it. Unless they can afford high-priced lawyers with security clearances who know their way around the FISA Court, they will have no recourse at all.”
This is how an effort to reform Section 702 has quickly steamrollered into an expansion of the government’s surveillance powers.
We should have seen this coming.
After all, the Police State doesn’t relinquish power easily, the Surveillance State doesn’t look favorably on anything that might weaken its control, and Big Brother doesn’t like to be restricted.
What most Americans don’t get is that even without Section 702 in play, the government will still target the populace for warrantless, suspicionless mass surveillance, because that’s how the police state maintains its stranglehold on power.
These maneuvers are just the tip of the iceberg.
For all intents and purposes, we now have a fourth branch of government.
This fourth branch came into being without any electoral mandate or constitutional referendum, and yet it possesses superpowers, above and beyond those of any other government agency save the military.
It is all-knowing, all-seeing and all-powerful.
It operates beyond the reach of the president, Congress and the courts, and it marches in lockstep with the corporate elite who really call the shots in Washington, DC.
The government’s “technotyranny” surveillance apparatus has become so entrenched and entangled with its police state apparatus that it’s hard to know anymore where law enforcement ends and surveillance begins. They have become one and the same entity.
The police state has passed the baton to the surveillance state.
On any given day, the average American is now monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways by both government and corporate eyes and ears.
Every second of every day, the American people are being spied on by the U.S. government’s vast network of digital Peeping Toms, electronic eavesdroppers and robotic snoops.
Beware of what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, and with whom you communicate, because it will all be recorded, stored and used against you eventually, at a time and place of the government’s choosing.
Privacy, as we have known it, is dead.
Whether you’re walking through a store, driving your car, checking email, or talking to friends and family on the phone, you can be sure that some government agency is listening in and tracking you. This doesn’t even begin to touch on the complicity of the corporate sector, which buys and sells us from cradle to grave, until we have no more data left to mine. These corporate trackers monitor your purchases, web browsing, Facebook posts and other activities taking place in the cyber sphere and share the data with the government.
Just about every branch of the government—from the Postal Service to the Treasury Department and every agency in between—now has its own surveillance sector, authorized to collect data and spy on the American people. Then there are the fusion and counterterrorism centers that gather all of the data from the smaller government spies—the police, public health officials, transportation, etc.—and make it accessible for all those in power.
These government snoops are constantly combing through and harvesting vast quantities of our communications, then storing it in massive databases for years. Once this information—collected illegally and without any probable cause—is ingested into NSA servers, other government agencies can often search through the databases to make criminal cases against Americans that have nothing to do with terrorism or anything national security-related.
Empowered by advances in surveillance technology and emboldened by rapidly expanding public-private partnerships between law enforcement, the Intelligence Community, and the private sector, police have become particularly adept at sidestepping the Fourth Amendment.
Talk about a system rife for abuse.
Now, the government wants us to believe that we have nothing to fear from its mass spying program because they’re only looking to get the “bad” guys who are overseas.
Don’t believe it.
The government’s definition of a “bad” guy is extraordinarily broad, and it results in the warrantless surveillance of innocent, law-abiding Americans on a staggering scale.
Indeed, the government has become the biggest lawbreaker of all.
It’s telling that even after it was revealed that the FBI, one of the most power-hungry and corrupt agencies within the police state’s vast complex of power-hungry and corrupt agencies, misused a massive government surveillance database more than 300,000 times in order to target American citizens, we’re still debating whether they should be allowed to continue to sidestep the Fourth Amendment.
This is how the government operates, after all: our objections are routinely overruled and our rights trampled underfoot.
It works the same every time.
First, the government seeks out extraordinary powers acquired in the wake of some national crisis—in this case, warrantless surveillance powers intended to help the government spy on foreign targets suspected of engaging in terrorism—and then they use those powers against the American people.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI repeatedly misused Section 702 in order to spy on the communications of two vastly disparate groups of Americans: those involved in the George Floyd protests and those who may have taken part in the Jan. 6, 2021, protests at the Capitol.
This abuse of its so-called national security powers is par for the course for the government.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, intelligence agencies conduct roughly 200,000 of these warrantless “backdoor” searches for Americans’ private communications each year.
No one is spared.
Many of the targets of these searches have done nothing wrong.
Government agents have spied on the communications of protesters, members of Congress, crime victims, journalists, and political donors, among many others.
The government has claimed that its spying on Americans is simply “incidental,” as though it were an accident, but it fully intends to collect this information.
As journalist Jake Johnson warns, under an expanded Section 702, U.S. intelligence agencies “could, without a warrant, compel gyms, grocery stores, barber shops, and other businesses to hand over communications data.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, “The Securities and Exchange Commission is deploying a massive government database—the Consolidated Audit Trail, or CAT—that monitors in real time the identity, transactions and investment portfolio of everyone who invests in the stock market.”
Journalist Leo Hohmann reports that the government is also handing out $20 million in grants to police, mental health networks, universities, churches and school districts to enlist their help in identifying Americans who might be political dissidents or potential “extremists.”
Ask the government why it’s carrying out this far-reaching surveillance on American citizens, and you’ll get the same Orwellian answer the government has been trotting in response to every so-called crisis to justify its assaults on our civil liberties: to keep America safe.
What this is really all about, however, is control.
What we are dealing with is a government so power-hungry, paranoid and afraid of losing its stranglehold on power that it is conspiring to wage war on anyone who dares to challenge its authority.
When the FBI is asking banks and other financial institutions to carry out dragnet searches of customer transactions—warrantlessly and without probable cause—for “extremism” indicators broadly based on where you shop, what you read, and how you travel, we’re all in trouble.
You don’t have to do anything illegal.
For that matter, you don’t even have to challenge the government’s authority.
Frankly, you don’t even have to care about politics or know anything about your rights.
All you really need to do in order to be tagged as a suspicious character, flagged for surveillance, and eventually placed on a government watch list is live in the United States.
As long as the government is allowed to weaponize its 360 degree surveillance technologies to flag you as a threat to national security, whether or not you’ve done anything wrong, it’s just a matter of time before you find yourself wrongly accused, investigated and confronted by police based on a data-driven algorithm or risk assessment culled together by a computer program run by artificial intelligence.
As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it won’t be long before Big Brother’s Thought Police are locking us up to “protect us” from ourselves.
At that point, we will disappear.
Well, that escalated quickly...
In a week characterized by data supporting 'no landing' from a growth perspective and disappointment from a disinflation perspective...
Source: Bloomberg
FedSpeak that was without exception - hawkish!
As they suddenly realized that all that 'pivot' optimism did nothing but dramatically ease financial conditions and fuck their 'best laid plans' for a rate-cut and soft landing...
Source: Bloomberg
Even the dove-est of the doves - Austan Goolsbee - bent the knee today:
“So far in 2024, that progress on inflation has stalled,” Goolsbee said Friday in remarks prepared for an event in Chicago.
“You never want to make too much of any one month’s data, especially inflation, which is a noisy series, but after three months of this, it can’t be dismissed.”
“Right now, it makes sense to wait and get more clarity before moving,” Goolsbee said.
And sure enough, rate-cut expectations for 2024 and 2025 have both plunged this week...
Source: Bloomberg
...and that has finally started to weigh on investors' risk appetites (that's a long way to catch down to reality)...
Source: Bloomberg
Most traders thought the worst was over last night as the panic-puke in futures was BTFD'd back to unchanged ahead of the cash open, but then the selling started (on Nasdaq) and never really stopped. On the day, Nasdaq was down over 2% while The Dow managed to gain 0.5%. Small Caps were almost unchanged by the end of the day with the S&P lagging...
But, all the majors ended the week red (with The Dow desperately trying to get back to even). Nasdaq was down over 5.5% on the week! S&P and Small Caps down around 3%...
Nasdaq is down for six straight days for its biggest weekly drop since Nov 2022, breaking below its 100DMA as CTA 'sell threshold's were crosed. Goldman's trading desk noted:
"The NDX now pacing for its worst week in over a year (down 6 of 7 weeks) as a complicated technical backdrop (CTAs, lower retail participation, NDX now testing 100-dma, seasonality), sideways earnings revisions thus far (ASML, TSM and even Sheridan’s NFLX EPS revisions were only 1-2% last night), a tense geopolitical backdrop (overnight headlines) and elevated positioning are testing conviction into a busy week of earnings … some debate if this all ‘helps’ the set-up into FAAMG prints or if the market is just read to ‘take a breather’ and sell any good news..."
The MAG7 basket broke below its 50DMA this week - the first time since October, when The Fed 'pivoted' and save the world. The market cap of the MAG7 is now down over $1 Trillion from its highs a week ago...
Source: Bloomberg
AI Leaders crashed relative to firms 'at risk from AI', plunging to their lowest in two months...
Source: Bloomberg
Of note is that the AI Leaders are perfectly back to their prior peak in 2021 (which was driven by chip demand for crypto mining and COVID disruptions), breaking down to the 100DMA and through the medium-term uptrend...
Source: Bloomberg
Semis were slaughtered this week...
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA plunged 10% today back to two month lows, closing below its 50DMA for the first time since Nov 2023...
... now in bear market (down over 22% from its highs) and the CSCO analog doesn't look so crazy anymore...
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, amid all this carnage, banks had a decent week with WFC and MS outperforming (JPM still lagging from its drop on last Friday's earnings)...
Source: Bloomberg
The Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and Dow are all back below their 100DMA, and the S&P 500 is pushing down towards its 100DMA (having blow thru the CTA 'sell' thresholds)...
Goldman's trading desk warns, it could get worse: "CTA supply is building – our team’s work shows this group sold $25B globally this week ($9B in SPX) with next week expected to bring another $27B globally (and $10B SPX) in a flat tape scenario. Reminder the medium term threshold (aka most important) level is 4886 – less than 100 handles away from spot."
Next week brings 43% of SPX set to report earnings highlighted by META/MSFT/GOOGL (aka $6.1T of mkt cap) reporting on Thurs night...on the macro front, key reports include 1Q GDP on Thurs & March PCE on Fri.
VIX soared this week to six-month highs, and credit markets also - finally - started to crack...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended the week higher, but not before plunging overnight on a flight-to-quality bid as Israeli missiles hit Iran, taking yields lower on the week. By the close of the week, the belly slightly underperformed but yields were all up by around 8-10bps....
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the second straight week, hitting its highest since early Nov 2023 last night on the mid-east attacks before sliding back...
Source: Bloomberg
Heading into today's 'halving' - likely to occur within the next few hours - Bitcoin was down, puking once again overnight on geopolitical chaos like it did last weekend, only to see buying come right back (after testing below $60,000 for the first time since early March)...
Source: Bloomberg
5.00% remains a key level for the 2Y Yield...
Source: Bloomberg
Despite two major attacks in the Middle East, oil prices ended lower for the second week in a row (well WW3 hasn't started yet). Some knock-on effects from an evaporation of hope for demand-sponsoring rate-cuts also weighed on sentiment as WTI
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold prices spiked overnight on the Israel attack, pulled back, then rallied up to $2400 once again to close at the highs...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold closed the week at a new record high...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver soared 3% on the week to new cycle highs (its highest since Feb 2021)...
Source: Bloomberg
Silver has been broadly speaking outperforming gold in recent weeks after peaking at a gold-to-silver ratio of around 92x in January, it is ow down to 83 (still well above the 65x average since 1980... implying silver remains 'cheap' to gold)...
Source: Bloomberg
...and then there's Cocoa...
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, are bank reserves at The Fed still the driving force for reality?
Source: Bloomberg
We saw the reality check from Aug-Oct last year; are we about to get another?
Authored by Joakim Book via The Mises Institute,
I live in a small village at the edge of lands surrounded by very harsh nature. Those who occupied these valleys in ages past lived ruthlessly dangerous lives, where starvation was a constant worry, the sea just as often nurtured as it took away, and the winters were long and perilous. Nowadays, while I’m walking the desolate mountains or admiring the fierce storms from inside my nice, sheltered existence, echoing in my head is Thomas Hobbes’s descriptions of man’s precivilizational life: “Solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.”
In the 2020s, we live fairly comfortable lives here, my fellow villagers and I. Our hearths are warm, our command over economic goods excellent. We live long, safe lives, where nobody starves and where almost nobody perishes in outbursts of nature’s wrath. We use machines—constructed far, far away using materials we don’t have, that run on fossil fuels that these lands don’t contain—to move away the snow that frequently and predictably lands on our doorsteps and otherwise would have made our roads impassable and our houses prisons. We use different machines—constructed far, far away using materials we don’t have, that run on fossil fuels that these lands don’t contain—to get ourselves out of our valley and transport goods and services back, including exotic fruits and vegetables that never grow here (certainly not in winter!).
It truly is fascinating to behold the astonishing things that globalized trade and capitalism can accomplish. Stepping back and thinking about the miracles of modern trade, innovation, and division of labor is so humbling.
Yet we well-off moderns worry about our collective existence to the point that kids have nightmares, and survey respondents overwhelmingly say climate change will end the human race.
Something like one-third of young people say they don’t want kids for fear of worsening the climate condition or how they’d fare in that brave, new world. “Climate anxiety is widespread among youth,” reports National Geographic. “How can we help kids cope with ‘eco-anxiety’?” asks the British Broadcasting Corporation. The vast majority of respondents in a global ten thousand–person study published in the Lancet in 2021 admitted to be very or extremely worried. Vox writers worry about the ethics of raising children. A new study, reported on by Phys.org, pointed to how many young people won’t have kids because of climate change: it’d be unfair to “bring a child into the world,” who’d have to live with the constant “feeling of impending doom, every day, for their whole life,” says one interviewed would-be parent.
Many of my fellow villagers entertain all these global ideas—melting glaciers and parts per million–numbers, floods and ethical dilemmas about us vulgar humans making earth inhospitable or uninhabitable.
It’s a strange thing to worry about obsessively, while the vicious storm raging outside the double-glazed windows affect nothing about our food supply, electricity use, heating, or ability to participate in the global division of labor—whether in our offices or remotely via high-speed internet. It somehow seems contradictory to passionately rally against capitalism from the comforts of very capitalistically built and maintained houses, hotels, and pubs; to inveigh against the burning of fossil fuels that literally keeps one alive.
It has me thinking about the action axiom, the starting point of Ludwig von Mises’s praxeology and the pillar-stone upon which Austrian economics rests. The colloquial version of this foundational Austrian maxim is “put your money where your mouth is” or “actions speak louder than words.” We demonstrate by our actions where our preferences and values lie; we reveal them to the world (act them into existence, really) when we do one thing instead of another, when we purchase one good instead of another, when we work instead of relax. All of this is wrapped in uncertainty and hopes and subjective human desires trading off against other such desires; in hindsight we can regret the choices we made. Still, says Murray Rothbard, a man’s “preferences are deducible from what he has chosen in action.”
Perhaps all this climate complaining is simply virtue signaling, in a world where feelings matter more than facts. The detachment from the physical processes of basic living—energy, materials, transportation, and in complicated monetary economies, money—has made many people ignorant, taking for granted the lifestyles we live and the standards of living we have. It has allowed us to start thinking foundational and civilization-carrying systems like money, fossil fuels, or commercial institutions are optional—a mere matter of ideological choice between good and evil people. They’re not.
I’m reminded too of luxury beliefs, a somewhat hyped concept coined by Rob Henderson, a psychologist at the University of Cambridge and author of the recent book Troubled. Henderson transfers Thorstein Veblen’s “conspicuous consumption”—the purchasing of expensive, often seemingly useless goods with the purpose of flaunting one’s wealth—to the moral and political domain. A luxury belief, like a conspicuous good, is acquired in order to impress others, and is designed to “confer status on the upper class at very little cost, while inflicting costs upon the lower classes.”
Luxury beliefs don’t make much sense and don’t have staying power in the real world of atoms and temperature, of nature and starvation. But we’re so far detached from the world that physically supports us—so rich, so deluded, so well off—that we’re willing to believe (and by extension willing to experiment with) the very systems that uphold our existence.
Cue environmental concerns and anticapitalism.
Taken literally, enacting policies based on such follies into place, we’re on a path to horror and poverty, with brutish and short lives to follow.
The good news is that those systems are remarkably resilient and these voices might still be all “tawk,” as Nassim Taleb would say.
The popular energy-finance Substack Doomberg made a similar observation in February, listing two paragraphs’ worth of major events that happened from 1971: oil crisis, Iran-Iraq, Kuwait wars, Middle Eastern conflicts, the Asian and peso and ruble financial collapses, the terrorist attacks, Libya-Syria-Ukraine, the global financial crisis, and covid.
Through all of them, as tumultuous as they seemed at the time and as relevant as they remain in the political consciousness, the world’s total energy consumption is a straight line through all of it.
Here’s their graph:
BP Statistical Review global total energy consumption
Source: Doomberg
Socioeconomic events as radical as women’s rights or racial equality; left-wing or right-wing leaders; crises and recessions, inflations and boom years; generations of scholars and scientists and political movements . . . and there’s no impact on the basic thing that powers our civilization.
Eighty-five percent of the globe’s primary energy consumption comes directly from fossil fuels—the same it was over thirty years ago when I was born. You can speak beliefs about climate change, about noncredible, net-zero policy goals (always with years suspiciously ending in zero or five), about reducing reliance on fossil fuels, or about how “clean” renewable energy is. You can throw government money at it, pass laws, or pontificate in the high courts, legislative auditoriums, or the public square, but you’re just not changing that. You can’t change that.
Cypherpunks write code. Clever people ignore politics. You should get out of the house, stop worrying too much about the lunatics running the asylum, and instead admire nature.
That’s what I’m doing.
US athletic footwear and apparel company Nike announced late in the cash session on Friday that it is undergoing a restructuring effort to trim costs at its World Headquarters (WHQ) located in Beaverton, Oregon.
Michele Adams, VP of People Solutions at Nike, might be the most hated person at the company this afternoon. In a letter to staff, she wrote that "approximately 740 employees at WHQ" will be "permanently" laid off by late June.
"As a result of a second phase of impacts, which will take effect by June 28, 2024, approximately 740 employees at WHQ will have been impacted by this and the recent prior permanent reduction of the workforce," Adams said.
In December, Chief Executive Officer John Donahoe said the company would reduce its global headcount by 2% as management moves forward with a cost-savings program of as much as $2 billion over the next three years.
Data from Bloomberg shows that Nike's total headcount stood at around 83,700 as of the end of 2023. The company has been dramatically hiring over the last decade and a half - those efforts appear to have just stalled.
Nike shares have stumbled into a correction as of late March.
Yet another sign consumers are pulling back on clothing apparel and other sporting goods merchandise?
Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
As federal net-zero policies attempt to shift transportation, heating, and other essentials onto the electric grid, one of the hottest growth sectors of America’s economy is poised to increase electricity demand exponentially, further straining an energy infrastructure that is being pushed into the red.
Data centers, the so-called “brains of the internet,” are industrial warehouses packed with rows upon rows of servers. They process, communicate, and store the data behind everything from bank records, online retailers, and social media platforms to Netflix shows and your personal iPhone videos.
“Data centers are essential to cloud computing and its ability to give users remote access to data,” a 2023 Federal Reserve report states, quoting a Science article that calls them the “information backbone of an increasingly digitalized world.”
Many analysts laud data centers as one of the fastest-growing sectors of the real estate market, but the industry may soon find itself hitting a wall as local communities put up increasing resistance to the industry’s seemingly insatiable appetite for power and water.
“While other commercial real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in construction pipelines, data center development has reached an all-time high,” according to a January report by Newmark, a commercial real estate advisory.
“However, growth is increasingly constrained by land and power availability, supply chain challenges and construction delays, not to mention increasing resistance from some local jurisdictions.”
The report said the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) and other technologies is fueling the demand.
The industry is led by cloud computing behemoths like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and Meta. It also includes digital landlords, called co-location companies, which rent storage space out to third parties. These include Equinix, Digital Realty, and CyrusOne.
Data warehouses consumed 17 gigawatts of electricity in 2022, or about 4 percent of total U.S. consumption. This is projected to double to 35 gigawatts by 2030.
Eric Woodell, who holds a doctorate of science in information systems and communications and is the founder of Amerruss, a tech infrastructure management company, referred to data centers as “energy hogs.”
“But now your data center for AI applications is no longer a hog, it’s an elephant and it’s living in your backyard,” he told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Woodell has been managing data centers for 25 years, formerly for Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager.
A mere 10-foot-square space within the average data center consumes about 10 times as much electricity as the average home, he said.
“While conventional data centers are already pulling an enormous amount of power, AI computing doesn’t use CPUs [central processing units], but GPU-based systems instead, as the GPUs [graphics processing units] are tailored to better handle complex mathematical functions,” he said. “But there’s a catch: they draw between five and 10 times more power than similarly equipped CPU systems.”
This hefty increase in electricity demand strains a grid that is already predicted to feature power shortages and routine rolling blackouts in the coming years. This is due to more demands being placed on the grid at a time when utilities are aggressively shutting down coal and gas plants in their transition to wind and solar energy.
According to a February case study of one large regional electric utility, PJM, by Quanta Technologies, the next several years will feature “equipment overloads that trigger as much as 6,826 MW of load shedding during average winter peak demand.”
Load shedding means cutting power to consumers, also known as blackouts, to prevent a system collapse.
PJM serves a dozen eastern Mid-Atlantic states as a wholesale provider.
“The analysis reveals the expected overload of 30 bulk transmission facilities (230 kV and higher) in the 2028 summer due primarily to high load growth associated mostly with new data centers,” the report states.
Curiously, given that the transition to renewable energy is ostensibly to fight rising temperatures, the Quanta report finds that “electric demand is peaking less in summer and more in winter.” This is particularly worrisome as states on the West Coast and in the northeast, representing nearly one-third of natural gas consumers across the United States, are banning gas heating in new homes, forcing those households to rely on electricity for essential heating.
PJM forecasts new data center load growth of 7,500 MW by 2028, while deactivating 11,100 MW of fossil fuel production, leaving an 18.6 Gigawatt gap between new demand and remaining supply in this sector, according to Mr. Woodell.
“18.6 Gigawatts would power roughly 3 million homes or New York City three times over,” he stated. “The ramifications are massive.”
Globally, data centers consume about 3 percent of the world’s electricity, according to Ryan Yonk, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. This consumption tends to be steady and predictable, and utilities can expand to accommodate it, he said.
However, problems arise when centers become concentrated in a single area, especially if that area is transitioning away from fossil fuels.
“For individual communities, there are some real questions about data centers going in, particularly if they’re going to be clustered, and they often are,” Mr. Yonk told The Epoch Times.
“Data centers end up having consistent power requirements, which means that the grid can be pretty well expanded so long as production capacity is high enough,” he said. “But as we transition more to renewables ... the greater the baseline demand, the more problematic it can be.”
The region covered by PJM and the Quanta study is significant because it includes the world’s largest data hub, where about half of all U.S. data centers are located and through which an estimated 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic passes.
For anyone who conducts a Google search or makes an Amazon purchase, that transaction will likely be processed in what is known as Data Center Alley, home to about 150 data warehouses in Loudoun County, northern Virginia.
Data Center Alley had its beginnings in the 1980s when America Online (AOL) located its headquarters there. It quickly drew in others due to its proximity to Washington, its construction of the “world’s densest” fiber optic network, a supply of relatively cheap electricity, and local tax incentives.
“This is the area where you want to locate to connect up to everything else,” Julie Bolthouse, director of land use at the Piedmont Environmental Council (PEC), told The Epoch Times.
“Everybody is building off of each other in these data centers; you have to think about it as one giant network that is all communicating with each other,” she said.
“What’s happened from the ‘90s to now is that we’ve supersized them. We’ve gone from a small building that was part of a larger business campus and was only five megawatts, to these hyper-scale warehouse-type buildings that are now 200,000 square feet, and they’re using up to 90 megawatts per building.”
For scale, 90 megawatts is about the electricity consumption of 22,000 homes, according to a PEC report.
Read more here...
Cocoa hyperinflation is insane. The latest data from the futures market shows that cocoa prices in New York surged above the $12,000 per ton level today as the pace of processing in factories remains robust. This indicates that demand destruction has yet to emerge despite the massive multi-month parabolic price surge.
Cocoa futures surged 18% in the last two days to a record high of $12,125. Prices are up more than 190% year-to-date and are in breakout territory.
Bloomberg says the news today about grindings—where cocoa transforms into butter and powder used in candy—only dropped 2% in Europe and marginally lower in Asia for the first quarter compared with the same quarter one year ago.
John Goodwin, a senior commodity analyst at ArrowStream, said the grindings numbers are "nowhere near the deterioration we needed to end this rally," adding, "It's crazy how resilient those numbers were."
In other words, despite cocoa prices skyrocketing to the moon, there has yet to be noticeable demand destruction among consumers that would derail this rally.
"The market is watching processing data to get an idea of whether the rally is starting to hurt demand and how hard it's becoming for chocolatiers to obtain beans, though the data risks becoming a less reliable gauge of demand as shortfalls make it more difficult to source cocoa," Bloomberg pointed out.
Paul Joules, an analyst at Rabobank, wrote in a note that grindings figures are "an indication that for now demand is holding up despite current pricing," adding that "demand destruction will come, but clearly it's taking longer to filter into grind data than the market was anticipating."
Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that famed commodity trader Pierre Andurand opened a "small, long position" in cocoa futures in early March. Since then, prices have erupted. In an email, he told the media outlet that his price target is "$20,000 later this year" amid worsening continued drought and disease across West Africa, denting production at cocoa farms.
If cocoa prices rise, chocolate makers like the US Hershey Company will see demand destruction. However, this has yet to happen, and consumers are not complaining about higher prices (yet).
On Google Search, we looked at various key phrases a consumer would ask online about why prices were rising. Still, there is no search trend explosion.
However, as cocoa prices soar, the number of headlines about "chocolate prices" has hit a record high.
Perhaps Andurand's $20,000 price target is correct. Still, we have no idea where the price must go before demand destruction strikes.
Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
For all the “big tech”, momentum, hype; for all the “all-time highs”; this has not been a great year for tech...
Based on closing prices, the only day since January 19th, that you could have bought the Nasdaq 100 index and be profitable, is January 31st (and unless I type quickly, that might not even be true).
Had you came into the year long the Nasdaq 100, you would be up just over 2%.
Think about how many people got “FOMO’d” into buying markets at levels they weren’t comfortable with?
Now with yields rising, the Fed potentially on hold until after the election, valuation concerns mounting, and the “reaction function” to earnings, seems to be looking for negatives rather than positives, will people stay in this market?
Not great for 60/40 accounts and not sure when risk parity has to reduce exposures (they’ve been helped by commodities), but should be soon, if not already (changing correlations is as important for their models as individual asset class volatility – none going the “right” direction at the moment).
Finally, and for those who have been reading T-Reports for a long time, know that I like to say “flash crashes” and “massive overnight moves” are like criminals, they tend to return to the scene of the crime, which does not bode well for equity risk (and therefore credit risk – credit is moving due to that far more than anything wrong in credit fundamentals).
In a sign of growing discord among House Republicans, members of the Freedom Caucus are taking turns monitoring the House floor to prevent the GOP leadership from using sneaky procedural tactics to sap the power of increasingly rebellious conservatives.
Specifically, they're wary that party leaders and their allies will, without prior announcement, bring measures to the floor and seek their passage via "unanimous consent." With that approach, the presiding officer simply states, "If there is no objection, the motion will be adopted." After a pause to allow for objections, the officer declares, "Since there is no objection, the motion is adopted."
The U.S. House is now officially in an alternate universe where the Speaker shares procedural power with Democrats.
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) April 19, 2024
It’s unfortunate our Speaker has chosen this route. Just to maintain control of the floor, he will need to rely on dozens of democrats tomorrow. https://t.co/BKpJjABFCY
That's where the Freedom Caucus's Floor Action Response Team (yes, "FART") comes in. With their round-the-legislative-clock presence, they always have a member positioned to object to unanimous consent motions, forcing proposals to go through a more arduous procedure.
House conservatives both inside and outside the Freedom Caucus are increasingly irate over Speaker Mike Johnson's actions, from pushing foreign aid for Ukraine, allowing omnibus spending bills that kick the fiscal can down the road, and personally casting the tie-breaking vote against adding a warrant requirement to the extension Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. All the while, he's pushed border security to the back burner.
The Freedom Caucus and its allies are on particular alert for moves that would reverse concessions made by Johnson's predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, as part of his negotiations with conservatives pursuant to ascending to the speakership. For example, establishment Republicans could try to:
The three members who refuse to support the Speaker’s agenda should resign from the Rules Committee immediately. If they refuse, they should be removed immediately. They are there on behalf of the conference, not themselves. https://t.co/dV0LUKrpoR
— Mike Lawler (@lawler4ny) April 18, 2024
After a tense meeting with Johnson, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who introduced the successful motion to oust McCarthy, issued a public warning against changing the rules. “Talking about changing the threshold to the motion to vacate is likely to induce the motion to vacate,” he told reporters.
Greene issued her own admonition: "Mike Johnson owes our entire conference a meeting. And if he wants to change the motion to vacate he needs to come before the Republican Conference that elected him and tell us of his intentions and tell us what this rule change … is going to be.”
Johnson has been deflecting questions about whether he was contemplating such a move, both with media and with Gaetz and others. When Gaetz was asked on Thursday if he would back a motion to vacate, he hinted that he was moving in that direction, coyly saying, "You know I woke up today and I didn't." At the same time, he said Johnson's ouster would be "sub-optimal," and that he'd prefer to see Johnson come around and "govern in accordance with the commitments we made."
Gaetz marveled at Johnson's rapid conversion to establishment puppet once the gavel was in his hand:
"When we voted for Mike Johnson for speaker, he was fresh off of a vote against Ukraine aid, he was publicly advocating for a warrant requirement on FISA, and the central thesis of his campaign for speaker was single-subject spending bills...[Now] look where we are."
News -- Matt Gaetz tells us he engaged in a 'tense' conversation with Johnson, who didn't rule out changing motion to vacate now in upcoming rule
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 18, 2024
(Also got into it with Rep. Van Orden who was daring them to move ahead with vacate vote - which Gaetz doesn't support w Johnson) pic.twitter.com/VyBdpSlN9y
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A hearing held earlier this week in New York by the Council’s immigration and hospital committees saw black migrants who have arrived in the city airing their grievances about public services they have been provided, including food and accommodation, with one woman even complaining that New Yorkers won’t learn Congolese languages.
The hearing drew over a thousand immigrants, mostly from countries in Africa, and many illegally in the country, with some claiming that they had been promised money, green cards or work visas if they attended.
Over 1,000 African migrants swarm NYC’s City Hall over supposed falsely promised green cards https://t.co/EnOA6ETrWJ
— New York Post (@nypost) April 16, 2024
While only 250 of them were allowed inside, the rest congregated outside in a park protesting.
Over 1,000 African migrants swarm NYC’s City Hall over supposed falsely promised green cards
— blue pill red pill your choice (@andred928) April 16, 2024
The crowd was mostly made up of new arrivals from Guinea, in West Africa, and were apparently drawn to City Hall by an activist group.— Article pic.twitter.com/h2LwjXyLGQ
The hearing was touted in a press release as aimed at African migrants in shelters to “understand how the [Adams] Administration is addressing language access barriers, cultural competency challenges, health needs, and other roadblocks.”
At one point during the hearing, which lasted for over SIX HOURS, the conversation turned to language services offered by the state, with some migrants complaining that Spanish and English speakers are given priority, and African immigrants are unfairly excluded.
It was then pointed out that many immigrants are illiterate and can only speak their native language and further suggested that New Yorkers “refuse to accommodate” by not learning those languages.
There are 3,000 languages spoken across Africa, with many having hundreds of different dialects.
Migrants in NYC complain that people who live there and provide them with free services are not willing to learn hundreds of different African languages. They go on to call NYC "racist" and "shameful." Full report: https://t.co/rIRTpbL3IZ pic.twitter.com/1hFQXga0HK
— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 18, 2024
At another point in the hearing migrants began complaining about the free food and housing they have been provided, saying it isn’t good enough.
They described the situation as “unacceptable,” and “shameful,” and even calling New York City “Anti-African, racist and Xeonophobic,” charging that the council is “responsible for this pain and suffering” that will affect migrants “for generations to come.”
"This is shameful time for NYC. IT IS ANTI-AFRICAN AND XENOPHOBIC!"
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) April 17, 2024
Another migrant complains about the free accommodations provided to black illegal immigrants in NYC: pic.twitter.com/OVNlvBCFGf
At another point in the hearing, City Councilwoman Vickie Paladino challenged the complaints, noting “I’ve been listening to everybody speak and making demands on New York City to do MORE MORE MORE.”
“How much more are we supposed to do?” she urged, adding “this system is so overworked and overburdened. We don’t have the resources.”
NY City Councilwoman Vickie Paladino responds to migrants complaining about the free food, housing and other services provided to them. "What motivated you to come here thinking the streets are paved in gold? They are not." Full report here: https://t.co/rIRTpbL3IZ pic.twitter.com/rF0KGMtB7B
— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) April 18, 2024
“I have to ask you all, what motivated you to come here thinking the streets are paved in gold? They are not,” Paladino continued adding “people have come across the border illegally,” before other council members interrupted her and demanded she ask a pertinent question.
Here is the full exchange, with Paladino’s comments:
I sat on the New York City Council Committee on Hospitals jointly with the Committee on Immigration to discuss the experience of black migrants in New York City.
— Councilwoman Vickie Paladino (@CMvpaladino) April 17, 2024
It truly pains me to hear the experiences these people are going through, I am extremely sympathetic to their… pic.twitter.com/4MzJIerSCL
Mayor Eric Adams responded to the protests and complaints, stating that it is the Federal government’s responsibility to “finish the job they started.”
“As we have said repeatedly, the federal government needs to finish the job they started by providing an immediate pathway to work for the tens of thousands of migrants they let into this country,” Adam’s office stated.
It added that “We are exceptionally proud of the dignity and respect we’ve been able to provide these migrants, as well as everyone else in our care, but, make no mistake, New York City should have never been left largely on its own to manage this national humanitarian crisis.”
Eric Adams' office hits back at 1,000 African migrants who descended on City Hall in protest, claiming NYC does enough for them https://t.co/SQi1J5cSJk pic.twitter.com/pqDyvHtTPB
— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) April 17, 2024
* * *
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Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
During a hearing Thursday, Senators Rand Paul and Josh Hawley grilled Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas concerning the open border and the murder of Laken Riley.
Mayorkas appeared very uncomfortable as Paul took him to task over the full scale invasion he has overseen at the border.
“You refuse to look at the facts and it’s still, I guess, insulting to all of us and insulting to the memory of Lake and Riley and to the memory of others who have been killed by people who came into this country,” Senator Paul urged.
Secretary Mayorkas SQUIRMS while Senator @RandPaul GRILLS him on Laken Riley's killer for seven minutes straight!
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) April 18, 2024
🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/gvD6WWrt6x
Paul reeled off a short list of examples of crimes committed by illegal immigrants recently, that represents a tiny fraction of the true scale of the problem.
He stated, “On March 2nd, an illegal alien who got into the country as a gotaway killed Washington State Trooper Christopher Gadd. A Haitian man who entered the US via the CHNV parole program was arrested for sexual assault of a 15-year-old girl. On March 21st. Illegal aliens in El Paso rushed the fence. You saw that on national television. An illegal alien on March 23rd murdered 25-year-old Michigan resident, Ruby Garcia.”
Paul continued, “A Chinese National, came across the border an illegally breached a military base in California. I mean, the stories go on and on and I think a lot of people in America are going to be appalled that you refuse to answer the questions.”
The Senator then turned to Jose Ibarra, charged with the murder of 22-year-old Augusta University nursing student Laken Riley. It has emerged that Ibarra was released into the US at the border via parole due to lack of detention space.
Paul asked Mayorkas “was it lawful to parole him? Was it lawful to let him in the country because you say the camp’s full?”
Mayorkas responded, “Ranking member Paul, as a former federal prosecutor for 12 years. I can say with tremendous conviction that individuals who commit criminal acts need to be held accountable for their crimes.”
“Well, that’s not much consolation if you wait until after he is murdered somebody,” Paul fired back.
“See, part of the problem is, and I think people would be aghast to know this, that when you come in, you just give people your name. It’s the honor system,” Paul continued, adding “There may be some databases you check, but certainly most of the domestic crimes in Venezuela probably are not in any kind of international database.”
“So if you waltz into the country through your generous parole programs and say, ‘I’m John Smith from Venezuela,’ you have no way of ascertaining that and you still let ’em go. So you say, ‘well, we’re going to make sure that they’re not a violent criminal.’ You have no way. You look in some databases, maybe they’re not in the database, but you have no way of even knowing that that’s their name,” the Senator further urged.
Paul continued, “Then you give biometric, you give them fingerprints. Now they have a new name and fingerprints. They essentially have been given a new identity by your agency.”
“I am just so sickened and sad by the families who have lost loved ones from this. I don’t see real remorse. I don’t see you’re willing to answer the questions,” he further charged.
“I mean, if it were me, I would be so upset by this. I would be doing everything possible to make sure that another Jose Ibarro doesn’t get in, but apparently you let his brother in too, and his brother’s got a rap sheet 10 times longer than Jose does,” Paul further asserted.
Mayorkas is the first cabinet official in American history to be impeached over high crimes and misdemeanors, including ‘aiding and abetting’ a foreign invasion and committing perjury before Congress, but he has so far managed twice to dodge an impeachment trial.
“All I can express is disappointment and bewilderment that the Democrats let you get away with it,” an exasperated Paul declared.
In a further grilling, Senator Josh Hawley ripped into Mayorkas regarding the release of Ibarra into the country, reading the parole report detailing his criminal history and exposing the amount of times the illegal committed offences and was let go before Laken Riley’s murder.
Mayorkas then had the gall to claim Hawley had “misstated some facts.”
“I have read from the parole file, which you have said you don’t recall,” Hawley shot back, adding “I have just read it into the record. And the reason is you have lied repeatedly to Congress and to the American people about this. They deserve to know. And the only way they’re going to know is if I tell them.”
“I’ve just told them it’s in the record. Now I’ve read it verbatim from the parole file, verbatim. I just want to know, why did you change your story so often? Why didn’t you just answer honestly to Congressman Bishop and Senator Brett?” Hawley further enquired.
Mayorkas glibly responded “Senator, I am I am confident that justice will be vindicated in the criminal prosecution of the case.”
“Well, hopefully he’ll get more of a trial than you got. Otherwise there’ll be no justice for anyone at all,” Hawley blasted back at Mayorkas.
Here is the full exchange:
Can anyone justify why Democrats keep saving this guy’s ass?
* * *
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It's been a very ugly week for momentum names, but since these days that really means AI and/or mega tech, we can just saw this has been a very ugly week for the Nasdaq. And sure enough, with the QQQs down 0.4%, the Nasdaq is now pacing for its worst week in over a year - and is down 6 of the past 7 weeks...
... on what Goldman trader Peter Callahan calls a complicated technical backdrop (CTAs, lower retail participation, Nasdaq now testing 100-dma, seasonality), sideways earnings revisions thus far (ASML, TSM and even Sheridan’s NFLX EPS revisions were only 1-2% last night), a tense geopolitical backdrop (overnight headlines) and elevated positioning are testing conviction into a busy week of earnings. The Goldman trader notes that this back and forth has spawned debate "if this all ‘helps’ the set-up into FAAMG prints or if the market is just read to ‘take a breather’ and sell any good news."
Some more observations from the Goldman tech sector specialist:
Top client inbounds yesterday (and this week):
Bad = Bad (or not good enough = not good enough) across pockets of cyclicals to start: handful of charts that jump out to me on earnings - KNX & JBHT in Industrials … INFY & EFX in Services .. LVS in leisure / casinos .. TSM & ASML in Semis (admittedly, a secular angle here) .. something to keep in mind ahead of upcoming earnings (esp for areas like Analog Semis)
NFLX -7%: headline numbers were ‘solid’ for Netflix – 1Q subs ~9.3mn (vs expects +HSDs q/q), beat on revs/EPS, raised FY OM guidance .. but, stock sharply lower this morning against the backdrop of elevated positioning & expectations (SI at lows, multiple at local highs). Sheridan/GIR remains NEUTRAL rated
TSMC: a number of inbounds yesterday.. feedback / action yesterday felt more like tactical de-risking (momentum breaking / profit taking on back or softer 'core' revs outlook and choppy GM cadence re: N3 ramp & costs)... whereas I did not really sense a m shift in long-term Bull views as Bulls remain focused on: 1) cyclical (eventual recovery in job AI workloads + secular (TSMC extended its 50% AI revs CAGR guide to ‘28 - from 2027 prior) growth, 2) multiple expansion on back of geographic manufacturing diversification, 3) upcoming node ramps – TSM noted AI adoption for N2 likely much faster vs that seen in N3/N5 and 4) pricing power (rather than a 'hike', GIR believes TSMC could provide lesser annual price reduction to its customers in 2025 vs typically a 5-10% of annual price reduction).
Finally, some charts from the Goldman trader:
NDX back testing its 100-dma: on this point, it has been a pretty swift drawdown with just ~1 in 5 names in the NDX still sitting above their 50-dma.
And the punchline: after ugly earnings from ASML and TSMC, the semis (SOX) are down ~8.5% in the last 5 sessions, the worst stretch since 2022.
More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Implied volatility of traditional havens such as the Swiss franc and US Treasuries remains remarkably subdued despite the situation in the Middle East, even as the former has outperformed most other havens, including the dollar. However, vol is beginning to pick up, in a sign risks are beginning to be more fully priced in.
Volatility is typically episodic. Most of the time it is low or falling, but then punctuated by episodes of extreme fear when it spikes, before beginning to trend lower again. It is a good metaphor for human behavior: ignore a potential risk up until the last minute - either believing it’s not really a danger, or pretending it’s not there at all and hoping it will go away, i.e. the ostrich effect – and then panic when said risk does turn out to be major problem (the UK government’s response to the pandemic is a good example).
Recency bias perhaps explains why markets have been surprisingly calm in the face of the ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East. The geopolitical backdrop across the world has been increasingly quarrelsome, but it has not so far led to a major multi-regional conflagration. With any luck that persists, but the generally still-contained volatility in most markets is perhaps not fully reflective of the underlying risks.
The chart below shows the implied volatility of bonds, the Swiss franc, the yen and crude oil has barely risen this year (all series are normalized to 100 at the start of the 2024).
We are seeing call skew in oil rising showing tail-risk probabilities are rising, even though at-the-money vol remains low.
The Swiss franc has been catching a bid, but that has so far not led to a significant marking up of its vols, while the yen is not acting as the haven it once did.
The VIX (blue line in top panel of chart) and gold volatility (purple line, bottom panel) have started to rise, but that has been more about inflation rather than geopolitical risks.
Generally, though, assets are not at panic stations, and therefore hedging portfolio risks is still cheap.
A suspected Iranian spy ship that its own government calls an "intelligence and logistics" vessel returned home this week after a three-year mis, as well as more recently lingering near Yemen for months.
The Iranian 'spy ship' BEHSHAD (9167289), which had a hand in the Red Sea Crisis by assisting Houthis in launching attacks against commercial and naval vessels over the past several months, has now returned to Iran after a 3-year deployment. We were able to verify her in… pic.twitter.com/NqJ3LYdIWY
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) April 19, 2024
The MV Behshad entered the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday and moored off Bandar Abbas, a port city located on the southern coast of Iran, on Thursday.
Several reports, including one from The Wall Street Journal in December, suggest the vessel was directly assisting Yemen's Houthi forces with targeting commercial ships in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the southern Red Sea.
"Iran's paramilitary forces are providing real-time intelligence to Yemen's Houthis that the rebels are using to direct drones and missiles to target ships passing through the Red Sea, Western and regional security officials said," WSJ wrote in the report, citing Western intelligence sources.
In March, we pointed out that Behshad moored near the area where undersea data cables linking several continents were severed.
Behshad's return to Iran comes as the Israel-Iran conflict deteriorated, with both countries volleying missiles and drones at each other in recent days.
"The ship is likely viewed as one of the targets Israel may hit in the future," said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at Le Beck International, a security and risk management consultancy, in a post on X.
Interesting Bloomberg report about the Iranian intelligence ship, Bershad, which has returned to #Iran since April 1 - incidently we've see a dip in Houthi attacks.
— Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) April 18, 2024
The ship is likely viewed as one of the targets Israel may hit in the futurehttps://t.co/IcRB5bOM4J
Iran's state media hasn't commented on Behshad's movements.
Authored by Rob Maness via RealClearDefense,
The Port of Baltimore is “closed until further notice” following the Francis Scott Key Bridge tragedy, sending several industries into disarray and jeopardizing national security.
In 2023, the port handled a record amount of international cargo, ranked ninth for both dollar value and tonnage in the United States. Vital for both imports and exports of a variety of commodities, the Port of Baltimore has always had international significance and the impact of its closure will be wide-ranging and long-term for the supply chain in the United States and beyond. Given the seriousness of this issue, Congress must come together to approve the funding to clean up the debris, reopen the channel, and rebuild the bridge.
Having three decades of experience in the United States military, and with foreign affairs and national security issues I can safely say that the reverberations of the disaster will be felt across the globe. The repercussions with regards to energy security are of specific concern and must be addressed.
Domestically, the impacts of these hiccups in the energy supply chain are already being felt. CSX’s Curtis Bay Piers in particular – heavily impacted by the bridge collapse – supplies coal to power the Maryland electric grid and provides metallurgical coal critical for the steel industry. The inability to ship energy supplies from this terminal has created a ripple effect in both sectors. A warning from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), meanwhile, that the bridge collapse and subsequent impact to the port will slow the growth of U.S. coal exports to our allies has also weakened that supply chain of growing importance.
International demand for American coal has been on the rise in the past few years due to Europe’s tightening energy supply, low natural gas reservoirs, and conflict in the region as many countries like Ukraine turned elsewhere to get their energy commodities. As the second-largest exporting hub for coal in the United States, accounting for nearly one-third (28 percent) of total exports in 2023, the Port of Baltimore has helped meet that demand.
While most of the coal exported from the Port of Baltimore was historically destined for locations outside of Europe, it has increasingly been finding its way to countries on the continent dealing with rising Russian aggression, providing them an alternative to forced reliance on Russian energy supplies. But with the port’s unspecified closure and reopening timelines, American allies around the world may be forced to turn back to Vladimir Putin and his cronies. This will give Russia undue power, in Europe in particular, which has historically relied heavily on Russian imports of coal, oil, and natural gas.
China’s rise and efforts to use energy and infrastructure connections to extend their reach and influence around the world have also been a growing concern for years now. Its Belt and Road Initiative includes significant investments in energy infrastructure across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and has been used to extend its influence by becoming a partner in meeting these regions' energy needs. The disruption in the flow of energy resources that has occurred as a result of the Port of Baltimore’s indefinite closure could subsequently force some U.S. allies to seek alternative suppliers and with the country’s coal output hitting record highs in 2023, it may provide an opening for the Communist Country to further assert itself on the world stage.
Energy independence and security means having enough energy to meet demand, as well as protecting power systems and infrastructure from physical attacks and cyber threats. Given these facts, the United States should be focused on bolstering the resiliency of its own energy supply chain – as well as strengthening connections with allies who are also concerned about the rise of Chinese and Russian influence around the world – by prioritizing the restoration of the Port of Baltimore. This will not only restore a vital link in the nation's energy supply chain but also signal to adversaries that the United States is committed to safeguarding its infrastructure and, by extension, its ability to act freely on the international stage.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore recently highlighted the need for quick cleanup, noting that “we need to make sure that we're actually moving quickly to get the American economy going again, because the Port of Baltimore is instrumental in our larger economic growth." Given the domino effects of its continued closure – most specifically to national security and energy independence across the globe – leaders in Washington must come together to quickly clean up and repair access to the port.
Rob Maness is a Retired Colonel and Founder of Iron Liberty Group.
Update(1049ET): The crisis at the Iranian consulate in Paris appears to be resolved, with a suspect under arrest and being investigated, according to France24:
A Paris police official said the man was seen at about 11am local time (0900 GMT) entering the consulate, carrying what appeared to be a grenade and an explosive vest.
The man later left the consulate and on being searched was found not to be carrying any explosives, a police source said. The man's motives were not immediately clear.
The report further said, "Le Parisien newspaper said on its website that, according to several witnesses, the man had dragged flags on the floor of the consulate and said he wanted to avenge the death of his brother."
* * *
A major police and emergency response is ongoing outside the Iranian consulate in Paris on Friday, where a man is reportedly threatening to blow himself up in what's possibly some kind of hostage standoff.
Police are asking the public to avoid the area and say that security services' intervention in the situation is imminent. "Service was interrupted on a nearby metro line for security reasons," the RATP metro company has alerted the public.
The consulate is at Rue Fresnel in the 16th district of the capital city, and the standoff comes just hours after an overnight Israeli aerial attack on Iran, which involved drones infiltrating Iranian airspace and also possibly Israeli jets firing from over Iraqi airspace. Iran said its anti-air defenses intercepted all threats.
However, the Iran-Israel situation has since avoided tit-for-tat escalation since the overnight assault, with the Iranians saying they do not plan to respond and escalate further.
Currently, few details are known of the consulate standoff, with conflicting reports saying the man may have a suicide vest on, or is carrying several grenades under his belt. French security services have at this point revealed little, and likely themselves possess few verified details of the situation.
#BREAKING: French forces surround Iranian consulate in Paris where man threatens to blow himself up#Iran #France #Paris pic.twitter.com/HSm1JcowaW
— WorldNews (@FirstWorldNewss) April 19, 2024
Local media footage has shown heavily armed police units cordoning off the area where the consulate is located. It remains unclear how many Iranian diplomats and consular workers might be inside.
developing...
According to a first-quarter update on Wednesday from Dutch chip giant ASML - the world's sole producer of equipment needed to make the most advanced chips - chip makers aren't rushing to prepare for the next leg in the AI boom.
This was confirmed on Friday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. - the world's largest contract chip maker - offered investors a very cautious outlook for the industry despite upbeat first-quarter earnings results.
TSMC reported better-than-expected first-quarter results led by increasing demand for advanced chips. TSMC's quarterly net profit climbed 8.9%, breaking a three-quarter slide.
Aside from the earnings, TSMC's downshift in this year's industry outlook spooked the market, sending shares down as much as 7.2% in Taipei.
This was the largest intraday decline in about 18 months.
Excluding memory chips, TSMC's industry outlook for the year is expected to be about 10%, compared to a growth forecast of "more than 10%" just three months ago.
"Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, potentially weighing on consumer sentiment and end-market demand," Chief Executive Officer C. C. Wei told investors on an earnings call.
Some Wall Street weren't surprised by TSMC's gloomy outlook.
Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Sanders told clients in a note that self-driving company Mobileye Global warned not too long ago that a chip supply glut materialized in the auto industry.
As noted earlier, ASML's 22% miss on first-quarter bookings is one sign that China's frontloading of lithography machines has ended.
We explained here:
Followed by this week's proof:
TSMC, AMSL, and Nvidia are likely long-term winners in the AI era. However, the new forecast suggests the AI bubble is waning and risks further deflating.
Plus, higher for longer interest rates by the Federal Reserve and reaccelerating inflation are bad news for tech valuations.
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The US has vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have granted Palestine status as a full UN member state, a move that goes against President Biden’s claim that he favors a two-state solution.
The US was the only member of the 15-member council to vote against the resolution, while the UK and Switzerland abstained. There were 12 votes in favor from Russia, China, France, Japan, South Korea, Ecuador, Algeria, Malta, Slovenia, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, and Guyana.
A resolution needs nine votes to pass, but the US and the other four permanent members of the council — China, Russia, France, and the UK — have veto power.
Before the Thursday vote, The Intercept reported that the US was lobbying other countries to vote against the resolution so the US wouldn’t have to veto it.
The Biden administration has come under criticism for claiming to favor a peace deal that involves a two-state solution while continuing to provide unconditional military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated his opposition to a Palestinian state.
Netanyahu has explicitly stated that he will not allow the creation of a Palestinian state in any future scenario. "In any future arrangement … Israel needs security control all territory west of the Jordan," he said in January. "This collides with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do?"
The Israeli leader has also credited himself for why there is no Palestinian state. "Everyone knows that I am the one who for decades blocked the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger our existence," he said in February.
China finds the U.S. decision to veto Palestine's full U.N. membership bid
— Johannes Maria (@luo_yuehan) April 19, 2024
"most disappointing" pic.twitter.com/H3InQa2sT1
The opposition to a Palestinian state is not unique to Netanyahu or his coalition government. Ninety-nine out of the 120 members of the Knesset recently voted against a resolution rejecting the "unilateral" creation of a Palestinian state.
Shares of Trump Media spiked on Friday after the company alerted the Nasdaq to 'potential market manipulation' from 'naked' short selling of its stock.
The warning came as the company, which trades under the symbol $DJT, offered shareholders detailed instructions on how to prevent someone from loaning out their shares to short sellers.
In a Friday morning letter to Nasdaq CEO Adrena Friedman, CEO Devin Nunes noted that as of Wednesday, "DJT appears on Nasdaq’s ‘Reg SHO threshold list,’ which is indicative of unlawful trading activity."
"his is particularly troubling given that ‘naked’ short selling often entails sophisticated market participants profiting at the expense of retail investors," Nunes continued.
$DJT CEO going full “Ape”. Never go full Ape. pic.twitter.com/clicSGJiwJ
— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) April 19, 2024
In his letter, Nunes pointed to circumstantial evidence - including DJT being the most expensive stock to short in the US, which he said would give brokers "significant financial incentive to lend non-existent shares," CNBC reports. The letter also links to a CNBC article which delves into the high premiums brokers were charging short sellers for loans of DJT to sell.
"I write to bring your attention to potential market manipulation of the stock of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp," wrote Nunes. "As you know, ‘naked’ short selling — selling shares of a stock without first borrowing the shares of stock deemed difficult to locate — is generally illegal pursuant to Securities and Exchange Commission (‘SEC’) Regulation SHO," the letter continues.
"Data made available to us indicate that just four market participants have been responsible for over 60% of the extraordinary volume of DJT shares traded: Citadel Securities, VIRTU Americas, G1 Execution Services, and Jane Street Capital," Nunes said, adding: "In light of the foregoing, and Nasdaq’s obligation and commitment to protect the interests of retail investors, please advise what steps you can take to foster transparency and compliance by ensuring market makers are adhering to Reg SHO, requiring brokers to disclose their ’Net Short” positions, and preventing the lending of shares that do not exist."
Shares of DJT began spiking premarket, and were up as much as 11%.
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
A video out of the UK shows a man being visited at home by two police officers and an NHS psychologist after he expressed anger online about the stabbing of a Bishop in Sydney by an Islamist.
Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel was stabbed by a 16-year-old boy at the Assyrian Christ the Good Shepherd church on Monday night, an attack that was caught on camera.
The teenager walked right up to the bishop as he was giving a sermon and furiously jabbed at him with a knife while shouting “Allahu Akbar” as onlookers desperately tried to wrestle him to the ground.
After the teen was pinned down, he could be seen smirking.
Now a new video has emerged showing how an Orthodox Christian man in the UK received a home visit from police and a psychologist for reportedly posting online, “Christians must stand up.”
The clip shows a female officer explaining how authorities had “a few concerns” about what the man had posted on social media.
“So why are you here today?” asks the man.
British police and a psychologist showed up at this man's home because he had posted on social media "Christians must stand up" after Islamist attack on bishop in Australia. This usually happens in dictatorships. pic.twitter.com/FljQkb4j8c
— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) April 19, 2024
The woman says the police have been told the man “might have a few concerns, a few things that are bothering you at the moment.”
“This is religious discrimination,” responds the man, asserting that the police wouldn’t be knocking on the door of a Muslim if they had made similar statements.
“People raised concerns about your views…about what’s going on in Australia,” the police officer continues.
“Yeah, so I’m an Orthodox Christian, now you’ve turned up at my house because I went and seen my priest,” the man responds.
The NHS psychologist reiterated that there was a report about “some beliefs being expressed” and that he was there to ‘help’ the man.
“So because I’ve questioned about the church not acting on behalf of Christians, you’re now turning up here with mental health nurses assuming I’m some right-wing nutter,” the thought criminal responds.
The video ends at this point.
Presumably, despite rising violent crime and police increasingly incapable of responding to actual crimes like theft and burglaries, they have plenty of resources to visit people’s homes over Facebook posts.
The teenager who stabbed the bishop has been charged with committing a terrorist act and could face lifetime imprisonment.
The attack was followed by a riot outside the church, which prompted more media demonization of the ‘fiery, but mostly peaceful demonstrators’ than the stabbing of the bishop itself.
* * *
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There has been no Iranian response against Israel for the overnight Israeli retaliation attack on the Islamic Republic. US officials have since confirmed that it was in fact an Israeli attack, yet all the while Iran's leaders are trying desperately to downplay it, saying it inflicted no damage, and that several reported explosions were actually the result of Iran's air defenses intercepting a few drones, particularly over the city of Isfahan, site of a key nuclear facility.
Importantly, as we predicted, Tehran is saying it has no plans for further retaliation following the oddly toothless, performative response from Israel. Officially, Iran and its state media are even referring to the attack incident as having been done by "infiltrators" while not readily naming Israel, also declaring that the aggression 'failed'. So far, it is looking like none of Iran's nuclear facilities were actually hit.
Reuters has called Iran's stance "a response that appeared gauged towards averting region-wide war." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a fresh statement sought to emphasize that the United States was not involved in any offensive operations against Iran, nor did he confirm Israel was behind it during the remarks, and the West continues to urge restraint by both sides.
The Washington Post is also acknowledging Iranian media's muted response in wake of overnight events:
Iranian state media was muted in its response to the attack, saying its air defense systems had intercepted "three small drones" in Isfahan province. There was no damage to Iran’s nuclear sites, including those in Isfahan, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday morning. Isfahan is the site of Iran’s largest nuclear research complex; the area is home to a military base.
Israeli national security officials were cited in the The Jerusalem Post on Friday as saying, "An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. Israel retaliated where they were attacked.”
However, JPost additionally noted some strange qualifiers, suggesting both sides are taking a 'nothing to see here folks' approach:
That said, officially, Israel will not accept responsibility for this attack for strategic reasons. Sources explain that the Iranians claim it was an “explosion at a factory” because they wish to avoid escalation. Israeli sources told the Post that it's unclear why the Pentagon disclosed to the American media that Israel was involved; they could have remained silent, they say. They could have preserved Iran's dignity and avoided escalating the situation on their own.
🎯
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 19, 2024
An earlier Bloomberg report disclosed that Israel had informed the White House on Thursday that a military strike on Iran was being planned in "the next 24-48 hours."
Bloomberg is now reporting Friday morning that "an Iranian military official signaled Tehran doesn’t feel compelled to react to the blasts which US officials say were caused by Israeli strikes, with semi-official Mehr agency quoting Army Commander-in-Chief Abdolrahim Mousavi saying Tehran has already reacted to Israeli threats."
Iran's President Ebrahim Rais made a planned speech on Friday and did not mention the overnight attack on Iranian soil, only the last Saturday offensive operations against Israel: "Operation True Promise led to authority, unity and cohesion in the country," Raisi said.
No Iranian nuclear sites were reported damaged...
"Today, all political groups and factions believe that this response was necessary and a big honour for the country," the Iranian president added, saying nothing further about the Israeli attack just hours prior.
There's only one group at this point that appears to be disappointed that it's over:
Hamas leadership likely thought this is the start of the 'big war' in Gaza's defense - which still possibly may come - but at this point of "cooler heads" prevailing is no longer looking likely.
Iran and Israel trying to forget all about it but Biden just messed it all up https://t.co/spZeb743c7
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 19, 2024
As a further sign of this rapid climb-down, Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization has lifted all prior airspace restrictions imposed the night before. However, German airline group Lufthansa has suspended all of its flights to Israel and Iraq amid the reports of Israel's overnight retaliation. The airline says this will hold till early Saturday.
Peter recently appeared on Market Overtime with Oliver Renick for an interview. In their wide-ranging discussion, Peter speaks on monetary policy, the reliability of inflation data, and reasons to avoid Bitcoin.
Contrary to the popular narrative, gold’s recent rise is not because of world conflicts. Inflation is the driving force behind the metal’s price action:
“This is just the beginning of a massive re-pricing of gold, and people aren’t even buying it yet. You have central banks buying, but investors aren’t even buying gold. Retail investors, the institutions— they’re not in the market at all. They don’t even understand why gold is rising. They’re attributing it to geopolitical risks, but it’s all about inflation. The key is that the markets have the inflation story wrong. The Fed rate hikes up to five and a quarter, five and a half, have not been nearly enough to put the inflation genie back in the bottle.”
As the media and policymakers begin to question the feasibility of a 2% inflation target, their preferred measures of inflation are probably not as accurate as they should be:
“I’d say [inflation’s] at least double what the CPI is. So if the government claims inflation is two, it’s four. And when they claimed it was nine, it was probably 18. People are struggling. It’s a lousy economy. People’s real incomes have been eviscerated by inflation. They’re forced to work multiple jobs. They’re drowning in a mountain of debt, and we’re headed for a major disaster.”
Lurking under the economy’s surface are decades of residual damage from artificially low-interest rates, especially in the housing and banking sectors:
“The entire banking system is insolvent. That’s the big problem— when interest rates were kept at zero, and all these homeowners were refinancing their mortgages at 3%. The banks own all that paper. They’re insolvent now! They own all these treasuries. Thanks to the government— the Fed— the entire US banking system is insolvent. And if the Fed actually raised interest rates to an appropriate level, all the banks would fail, including all the too-big-to-fail banks.”
The omens of economic disaster remind Peter of warnings he made in the early 2000s:
“I kept warning about the mistakes the Fed was making, and the housing bubble, and the financial crisis that was going to hit when the bubble popped. People would say, ‘When, when, when?’ Well, I don’t have a date. I just know that it’s going to happen. I can’t tell you exactly when. It’s the same thing now. But a lot of things have happened now, just like they did in 2007, that indicated that the day of reckoning was getting closer.”
Pivoting to the crypto vs. gold debate, Peter argues gold’s value stems from non-monetary uses that Bitcoin lacks:
“They say, ‘Bitcoin is a store of value,’ but it doesn’t have any value. You can’t store what you don’t have. The reason gold is a store of value is I can take the gold that I have and in a hundred years, I can make a watch with it. I can conduct electricity with it. I can use it in medicine, in dentistry. Gold has a real purpose in the world. It is a commodity that is used throughout industry.”
He thinks Bitcoin’s recent highs are driven by ETF hype, perhaps a prime example of the “greater fool” theory:
“The public was dumping their gold stocks to put their money into these ETFs. But the problem is, when the people who bought these ETFs want to get out, it will be impossible. … There won’t be enough demand for the people who bought to get out. The price is going to crash. We’re going to see the biggest Bitcoin crash we’ve ever seen. … These are paper hands. They’re not diamond hands.”
Bitcoin and gold are categorically different assets, and investing in Bitcoin is a risky bet:
“Look, if you want to go in Bitcoin, take the money that you would have used to buy lottery tickets or if you’re planning a trip to Vegas, instead of playing craps or roulette, you can gamble with Bitcoin. But don’t confuse it with an investment. It’s not even a legitimate speculation. It’s just pure gambling.”
Be sure to check out Peter’s other recent interview on Fox Business, and stay tuned for Peter’s response later this week to Jerome Powell’s remarks made on Tuesday, April 16th.
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey was an economic warning that departed widely from more robust governmental reports. In a recent analysis of small businesses, we discussed the importance those business owners play in the economy.
“It is crucial to understand that small and mid-sized businesses comprise a substantial percentage of the U.S. economy. Roughly 60% of all companies in the U.S. have less than ten employees.
Small businesses drive the economy, employment, and wages. Therefore, the NFIB’s statements are highly relevant to the economy’s current state compared to the headline economic data from Government sources.”
While recent government data on economic growth and employment remain robust, the NFIB small business confidence survey declined in its latest reading. Not only did it fall to the lowest level in 11 years, but, as far as an economic warning goes, it remained at levels historically associated with a recessionary economy.
The decline in confidence should be unsurprising given the largest deviation of interest rates from their 5-year average since 1975. Higher borrowing costs impede business growth for small businesses, as they don’t have access to the bond market like major companies.
Therefore, as the economy slows and interest rates rise, small business owners turn to their local banks for operating loans. However, higher rates and tighter lending standards make access to capital more difficult.
Of course, given that capital is the lifeblood of any business, decisions on hiring, capital expenditures, and expansion hang in the balance.
It should be unsurprising that if the economy were expanding as quickly as headline data suggests, business owners would be expending capital to increase capacity to meet rising demand. However, in the most recent NFIB report, the percentage of business owners planning capital expenditures over the 3-6 months dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic-driven shutdown.
Again, given that small businesses comprise about 50% of the economy, there is more than just a casual relationship between their capital expenditure plans (CapEx) and real gross private investment, which is part of the GDP equation.
In other words, if small businesses cut back on CapEx, this will eventually translate into slower rates of private investment and, ultimately, economic growth in coming quarters.
As shown, the correlation between small business CapEx plans and economic growth should not be dismissed. While mainstream economists are becoming increasingly optimistic about an “economic reflation,” the economic warning between real GDP and CapEx suggests caution.
Of course, if small businesses are unwilling to increase CapEx, it is because there is a lack of demand to justify those expenditures. Therefore, if CapEx is falling, we should expect economic warnings from employment and sales.
Many reasons feed into a small business owner’s decision NOT to invest in their business. As noted above, tighter bank lending standards and increased borrowing costs certainly weigh on that decision. However, if “business is booming,” business owners will find the capital needed to meet increased demand. However, looking deeper into the NFIB data, we find rising concerns about the “demand” side of the equation.
The NFIB publishes several data points from the survey concerning the “concerns” small business owners have. These cover many concerns, from government regulations to taxes, labor costs, sales, and other concerns confronting business owners. When it comes to the “demand” side of the equation, there are three crucial categories:
Poor sales (demand),
Cost of labor (the most significant expense to any business), and
Is it a “Good time to expand?” (Capex)
In the chart below, I have inverted “Good time to expand,” so it correlates with rising concerns about the cost of labor and poor sales. What should be obvious is that the average of these concerns escalates as economic growth weakens (recessionary periods) and falls during economic recoveries. Currently, these rising concerns should provide an economic warning to economists.
Examining sales and employment figures can help us understand why business owners remain pessimistic about the overall economy. The chart below shows the NFIB members’ sales expectations over the next quarter compared to the previous quarter. The black line is the average of both with a long-term median.
Unsurprisingly, business owners are always optimistic that sales will improve in the next quarter. However, actual sales tend to fall short of those expectations. The two have a very high correlation, which is why the average of both provides valuable information. Sales expectations and actual sales are well below levels typically witnessed during recessions. With sales (demand) weak, there is little need to increase production (supply) substantially.
Here is the economic warning to pay attention to. Real retail sales comprise about 40% of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), roughly 70% of the economic growth rate. The decline in the average of actual and expected sales of small businesses suggests weaker retail sales and, by extension, a slower economic growth rate.
The demand side of the economic equation is crucially important. If the demand for a business owner’s products or services declines, there is little need to increase employment. Therefore, if economic growth was as robust as headlines suggest, why are small businesses’ plans to increase employment declining sharply?
Furthermore, when demand falls, business owners look to cut operating costs to protect profitability. While cutting future employment is part of that equation, so are plans to raise worker compensation.
The last chart is crucial. The U.S. is a consumption-based economy. However, consumers can not consume without producing something first. Production must come first to generate the income needed for that consumption. The cycle is displayed below.
As employees receive fewer compensation increases (raises, bonuses, etc.) amid rising living costs, they cut consumption, which translates into slower economic growth rates. In turn, business owners cut employment and compensation further. It is a virtual spiral that historically ends in recession.
While this time could certainly be different, the economic warnings from the NFIB survey should not be dismissed. The data could explain why the Fed is becoming more adamant about cutting rates.
While US futures are still modestly in the red, they are not only well off the worst overnight levels, but they are almost unchanged since yesterday's close following a performative Israeli retaliation. which followed a performative Iranian attack, which appears to be the end of the story. For those who missed it, early on Friday local time, explosions echoed over an Iranian city on Friday in what sources described as an Israeli attack, but Tehran played down the incident and indicated it had no plans for retaliation - a response that appeared gauged towards averting region-wide war. The limited scale of the attack and Iran's muted response both appeared to signal a successful effort by diplomats who have been working round the clock to avert all-out war since an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel last Saturday. And so, after a whole lot of nothing overnight, as of 730am, S&P futures are practically unchanged at 5,045, Brent is actually lower compared to Thursday's close after briefly rising above $90 earlier, gold is unchanged, bonds are modestly firmer though have pared the majority of the overnight advances, and bitcoin is higher after aggressively dumping late on Thursday. There is nothing of significance on today's calendar.
Premarket, megacap tech are mostly lower: TSLA -1.8%, NVDA -1.1%, AMZN -95bp, META -91bp. NFLX tumbled fall 6.6% after the streaming-video company reported its first-quarter earnings. While the results were better than expected, with customer additions especially strong, its second-quarter revenue forecast was a slight disappointment. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
The latest fake escalation cap a dismal week for markets after solid economic readings and hawkish Fedspeak that have overturned Powell's December pivot and have forced investors to revise the timing of a keenly anticipated pivot to easier policy and the scale of potential rate cuts.
“With inflation sticky, central banks don’t have the option to look through spikes in oil prices, should they happen,” said Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. “They will have to revert to higher for longer rates which at this stage will be a shock to all markets.”
The latest the spook the market was NY Fed President John Williams who said while it isn’t his baseline expectation, even a rate hike is possible if warranted. His Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said he doesn’t think it will be appropriate to ease until toward the end of 2024. The Fed may hold rates steady all year, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari told Fox News Channel.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, an Iranian military official signaled Tehran doesn’t feel compelled to react to the blasts which US officials say were caused by Israeli strikes, with semi-official Mehr agency quoting Army Commander-in-Chief Abdolrahim Mousavi saying Tehran has already reacted to Israeli threats. Despite Friday’s moves to allay fears of a wider war in the Mideast, the events are unsettling and will keep investors from taking bold bets, according to Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in London.
“No one will want to be short of crude and the havens ahead of the weekend,” he said. “From a risk-management perspective you can’t say definitively that geopolitical risk is done and dusted. So we may see another bout of de-risking. Ultimately it’s a case of people being reluctant to take on too much exposure.”
Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 0.4%, but it too reversed most of the overnight losses. The food, beverage and tobacco sub-index leads gains whlie retail stocks decline the most. In company news, L’Oreal surged after better-than-expected quarterly sales. Here are the most notable European movers:
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed while the Swiss franc remains the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.4% versus the greenback. The pound gains 0.1% with little reaction shown to weaker-than-expected UK retail sales data.
In rates, treasuries remain richer across the curve after paring the Asia-session advance sparked by reports Israel launched retaliatory strike on Iran. Yields lower by 4bp to 6bp as US trading gets under way, back toward middle of day’s range. US 10-year yields around 4.58% after briefly dropping below 4.50% during Asia session; inverted 2s10s spread remains near lows of the day as intermediates outperform, flatter by around 2bp. Fed rate-cut expectations edged higher, with OIS pricing in 41bp of easing by year-end vs 38bp at Thursday’s close. Treasury coupon auctions next week — final ones of the February-to-April financing quarter — include 2-, 5- and 7-year notes Tuesday to Thursday.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down ~1% near $82/bbl after erasing a more than 4% surge above $86/bbl as media in both countries appeared to downplay the severity of the incident. Gold is unchanged around $2377.
Bitcoin rises 2% ahead of the halving event expected later Friday.
US economic data slate empty for the session; Fed speakers include Goolsbee at 10:30am, and Fed releases Financial Stability Report at 4pm.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Earnings
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were lower across the board as the initial tech-related selling stemming from Wall St was exacerbated by reports of explosions in Iran following an Israeli operation although stocks are off today's worst levels as Iran downplayed and later denied the attack. ASX 200 was pressured with losses led by underperformance in tech and amid the bout of geopolitical-related turmoil. Nikkei 225 suffered intraday losses of around 3% and briefly dipped beneath the 37,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower but with losses only mild compared to the regional counterparts
Top Asian News
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.6%) are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit after Israel conducted an operation against Iran on a military airbase near Isfahan; though Iran later downplayed the attack, which helped to lift sentiment off worst levels, with contracts continuing to pare losses in otherwise quiet newsflow. European sectors hold a strong negative tilt; Industrials is found at the foot of the pile, with Schneider Electric (-1.9%) leading the losses. Autos are also lagging, after Nissan downgraded its guidance citing lower sales volume. US Equity Futures (ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, RTY 0.7%) are entirely in the red, though very much off worst levels seen overnight, sparked by the Israeli attacks on Iran. As for stock specifics, Netflix (-6.1%) is lower in the pre-market despite reporting strong headline metrics; however, the Co’s Q2 guidance fell short of expectations.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics: Middle East
Geopolitics: Other
US Event Calendar
Central bank speakers
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets are reacting to new developments in the Middle East overnight, as US officials have said that Israel had launched a missile strike against Iran . The news has raised fears that the conflict will escalate further, particularly since Iran had said they would respond to any attack, with the Iranian foreign minister having said they would “give a decisive and proper response” to any further military moves. The full details are still coming through, but Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported that they had activated air defence systems, and that flights in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz had been suspended. And the New York Times reported three Iranian officials had said a strike hit a military air base near Isfahan early this morning.
In response, Brent crude oil prices (+2.04%) have spiked up to $88.89/bbl, although they have come down from their peak of $90.75/bbl immediately after the news came through. More broadly, the effects have been clear across global markets, and futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.85% this morning, which would put the index on track for a 6th consecutive decline for the first time since October 2022. In the meantime, investors have moved into safe havens, and the 10yr Treasury yield is down -8.0bps this morning to 4.55%, whilst gold prices are up +0.15%. Asian equities have also seen a decisive move lower overnight, including the Nikkei (-2.37%), the KOSPI (-1.63%), the Hang Seng (-1.23%), the CSI 300 (-0.88%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.40%).
Before all that, markets followed a familiar pattern yesterday, with an initial stabilisation giving away to further losses once again. That meant the S&P 500 (-0.22%) lost ground for a 5th consecutive session, which hasn’t happened since last October, and the NASDAQ (-0.52%) fell to its lowest level in almost two months. Moreover, the latest declines mean that the S&P 500 is on track to post a third consecutive weekly decline for the first time since September, and the NASDAQ is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline for the first time since December 2022. So this marks a big shift from the rapid rally we saw from November up to the end of March, and it now leaves the S&P 500 down -4.63% from its recent peak, even before any moves today that futures are currently indicating.
The selloff wasn’t confined to equities, and before the geopolitical developments overnight, sovereign bonds also fell thanks to strong US data, which led investors to become increasingly sceptical the Fed would cut rates this year. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were at 212k (vs. 215k expected) over the week ending April 13, offering further evidence that the labour market was still resilient. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook moved up to 15.5 in April (vs. 2.0 expected), which is the strongest reading in two years.
That scepticism about rate cuts got added support by comments from New York Fed President Williams, who said “I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest rates.” In response to a question, he commented that another rate hike wasn’t his baseline but that “if the data are telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goals, then we would obviously want to do that”. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that “I’m comfortable being patient”, reiterating his view that the Fed “won’t be in a position to reduce our rates until toward the end of the year”. In fact by the close, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting fell to 39bps, which is the fewest so far this year, although that’s since risen overnight to 43bps. And in turn, that led to a decent selloff for US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield (+4.6bps) back up to 4.63%, whilst the 2yr yield (+5.4bps) ended the day at 4.99%.
Over at the ECB however, several speakers continued to sound increasingly confident about a June cut. For instance, Finnish central bank governor Rehn said “Provided that we are confident that inflation will continue converging to our 2% target in a sustained way, the time will be ripe in June to start easing the monetary policy stance and to cut rates”. Austria’s Holzmann, one of the most hawkish ECB members, said that “If inflation develops as expected and, above all, the geopolitical problems don’t worsen, there will likely be a majority for an interest rate cut in June”. We also got some hints on what the ECB approach might look like beyond June. Lithuania’s Simkus considered about three rates cut this year as a baseline, while Latvia’s Kazaks saw “no rush in kind of further pace of rate cuts”. By contrast, France’s Villeroy suggested that consecutive rate cuts may be in play, noting that “When we say meeting by meeting, it can be at each following meeting — I don’t think, for example, that we should concentrate our rate cuts at quarterly meetings when we have a new forecast.” All this meant European sovereign bonds saw a smaller rise in yields than US Treasuries, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.1bps), OATs (+2.5bps) and BTPs (+1.4bps) all moving higher.
That backdrop meant that equities had another tough session. Initially they had looked to post a better performance, and the S&P 500 had been up by +0.69% intraday. But that began to reverse around the European close, leaving the index down -0.22%, in its 5th consecutive decline. Tech stocks led the underperformance again, and the Magnificent 7 (-0.49%) lost further ground, led by a -3.55% decline for Tesla . That said, banks (+0.99%) and communication services (+0.66%) outperformed, and over in Europe, which closed earlier in the day, the STOXX 600 advanced +0.24%.
In terms of yesterday’s other data, US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 4.19m in March (vs. 4.20m expected). Otherwise, the Conference Board’s Leading Index was down -0.3% in March (vs. -0.1% expected), which took the index down to its lowest level since May 2020. Overnight, we’ve also got the news that Japanese inflation fell to +2.7% in March (vs. +2.8% expected).
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, the BoE’s Mann, the Fed’s Goolsbee, and the ECB’s Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include UK retail sales and German PPI for March.
The Cyberspace Administration of China asked Apple on Friday to remove Meta Platforms' WhatsApp and Threads from its App Store in China due to national security concerns. Signal and Telegram—two foreign messaging apps—were also removed from the Chinese App Store. The removal of the four apps comes as elites in Washington, DC, attempt to ban Chinese app TikTok from US phones.
"We are obligated to follow the laws in the countries where we operate, even when we disagree. The Cyberspace Administration of China ordered the removal of these apps from the China storefront based on their national security concerns," Apple said in a statement, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Apple continued, "These apps remain available for download on all other storefronts where they appear."
These four messaging apps allow users to bypass China's Great Firewall through virtual private networks. Beijing finds this troubling as citizens could be subjected to disinformation and misinformation content (created by foreign adversaries) that sparks social unrest or discontent with the communist regime.
Bloomberg said the orders to nuke the four apps follow a prior "cleanup program Chinese regulators initiated in 2023 that was expected to remove many defunct or unregistered apps from domestic iOS and Android stores, including local ones. In August, China asked all mobile app developers to register with the government by the end of March, or cease operating."
Rich Bishop, co-founder and chief executive officer of AppInChina, expressed concern that Chinese consumers will now be limited to domestic apps, with only a handful of international ones. He warned that this move by Beijing could further isolate Chinese citizens from the rest of the world.
The removals come at a time when Apple is navigating a delicate balance between complying with China's censorship-industrial complex and maintaining iPhone market share in the world's largest handset market.
Last year, Apple was China's top smartphone maker, commanding over 17% of the market. However, Huawei is now challenging the US brand with new phone lineups, potentially shifting the dynamics.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, US lawmakers are actively pursuing a bill that would force Beijing-based ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban from app stores. This move underscores the ongoing tech war between the US and China.
Speaker Mike Johnson plans to include the TikTok divestiture legislation in an aid package for Ukraine and Israel that can be voted on as early as Saturday.
Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
There are few things I like more about NBA basketball than when a player gets so hot that it seems as though they can't miss a shot, no matter where they are shooting from. The legendary video game NBA Jam captured this beautifully, for those that remember.
A “heat check” is when a hot player takes what would normally be a shot that's borderline absurd because they are feeling so good and confident in their ability that they feel like they can “push it” a little. The difficult shot is supposed to be the determining factor as to whether or not the player is still "hot".
The point is that I'm having the same kind of “heat check” feeling about precious metals and hard money this week — let me explain why.
First off, the movement in gold has been absolutely outstanding — even Goldman Sachs raised their forecast to $2700/oz. this week. But still, the action in the precious metal has really only gotten limited coverage in the news media so far.
And if it isn't obvious by now, gold miner stocks are still extremely unloved. As I mentioned in my portfolio review of my 24 stocks I like for this year days ago, sentiment around miners remains horrific. Gold and the GLD is continually piercing through all-time highs, and miners and GDX are nowhere near all-time highs, let alone 52-week highs.
As the divergence between the gold spot price and miners continues to widen, it feels as though it is getting more and more blindingly obvious that miners remain one of the best places for value in the entire market.
Miners continue to be my top conviction pick, and I still think there is tons of runway. While gold spot prices have gotten a few mentions in financial media, the precious metal miners have gotten very few, if any. The sell signal I'll be looking for will be the days when the GDX performance has been so good that CNBC can do nothing but talk about miners. This is obviously a very, very, very long way off.
The purpose of this article—the reason why it is a “heat check” for gold and sound money assets—is because even though I've never been more bullish on gold, it’s important to understand that if the broader market crashes, gold will sell off with everything else. If the broader market starts to sell off for any reason—political conflict, overvaluation, election results—everything that isn't bolted down is going to be sold as people scramble for liquidity in a 5.5% interest rate environment. Gold, silver, bitcoin, and all commodities will likely be part and parcel with such a sell-off.
For example, on Monday when the market puked midday, it took gold with it. This is the same type of selling that would occur during a crash. The encouraging thing is that it didn't take but an hour or two for investors to realize that the sell-off was nonsensical, as the reason for the crash—escalating tensions in the Middle East—was actually bullish for gold. So, you can see the GLD diverge from the Nasdaq (QQQ) and finish the day positive despite falling with the indices midday.
This move is a microcosm of what I expect to happen when the broader market crashes at some point in the relatively near future as a result of high interest rates and a stretched consumer during an economic contraction: a crash with markets, followed by a recovery as the market remains decimated.
It's not even that the crash that will occur in metals will matter, seeing as how $2000 is likely now going to act as significant support for gold, and that's a price that is still 10 or 20% higher than most miners have modeled for the next couple of years. It's more about just keeping our heads screwed on straight right now, as there appears to be a lot of developments worthy of mixed feelings.
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As a gold investor, I said at the beginning of the year that I liked it not only because it was a commodity but also because it was a fiscal dominance/inflation hedge and a geopolitical hedge. All of the situations I raised at the beginning of the year now seem to be playing out at the same time, which frankly makes me feel a little conflicted. I don't want the US to be in an inflation crisis, nor do I want World War III to break out. However, as I said at the beginning of the year, it just seemed that these would be the most likely situations investors would be responding to this year, unfortunately. That said, it really doesn't make crowing about how right we have been about gold for the last decade enjoyable.
I'm cautiously optimistic about the way things are going, but just remember that it's called volatility because it can shock the market with unexpected outcomes. I personally plan to have cash on the sidelines and plenty of breathing room to be able to navigate whatever choppy waters may be ahead, even as gold rips.
Also on Monday, I sacrificed a couple of brain cells to let Charles Payne onto my TV since he was hosting Natalie Brunell and Peter Schiff debate bitcoin versus gold.
I've been pretty clear that my bitcoin allocation is far less than that of my gold position. I still think the precious metals are top dog when it comes to money. And even I get sick of listening to Peter Schiff crow about gold every time bitcoin is up and gold is down, but he did make some very good points during his appearance.
He noted that relative to one another—if you want to compare them both as types of assets—that bitcoin priced in gold has still not hit new all-time highs:
"Well, you know, gold's probably going to close at a new record high today. It's only a few dollars off now, above $2370. Gold is rising because the dollar, the Euro, and the Yen—fiat currencies—are losing value. Inflation is real, it's here to stay, it's not going anywhere near the Fed's 2% target. We're headed in the wrong direction. We'll probably be in double digits by next year, and eventually, the first digit isn't going to be a one.
Central banks are out in front of this; they're the main buyers. You know, a lot of Americans have been foolishly selling their gold to buy these Bitcoin ETFs. There's nothing elegant about losing your money in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not going up; in fact, Bitcoin peaked two and a half years ago at about 37 oz. of gold. As we speak now, it's worth less than 27 oz. That's a 27% decline in 2 and a half years. This is a bear market."
On the other hand, Peter was using price to make his case:
"There's nothing sound about Bitcoin. It's losing the race right now. Take a look at your screen. Gold is up $25, $26, and Bitcoin is getting clobbered.”
Using price to make your case is something that when bitcoiners do it, Schiff is quick to remind them that “price is what you pay and value is what you get”. Personally, the price action for me is not an indicator of the fundamentals. On the contrary, the fundamentals are a driver of the price action. Companies don't perform better because their price goes up, for the most part. Usually, companies performed better and then their price goes up.
Natalie also made some points that I didn't particularly agree with, specifically when she claimed that bitcoiners don’t feel the need to attack gold:
“Oh, I know Peter, and you know what? Bitcoiners don't feel the need to constantly attack gold because we're not threatened by gold.”
This (bitcoiners attacking gold) is so prominent it was going to be the topic of an entire article for me this week, but I'm writing this article instead.
Natalie is dead wrong. Bitcoiners absolutely cannot stop infringing on otherwise happy gold and silver investors by constantly telling them they don't own enough bitcoin or that their allocation is too small. I see it every day that I tweet about gold — people respond to me and ask me why I waste my time with it, people are constantly telling me that I need more bitcoin or and bitcoiners are generally not staying out of the business of people who choose to own gold, either by itself or alongside bitcoin.
This is extremely toxic behavior. In my decade of working with short sellers and dealing with scams, a pump like this — where people go out of their way to unprovokedly tell you that you need to own something — always seems to be a common denominator. It just isn't a good look for bitcoin and it's why I wrote the article "Let Bitcoin Cook". In it, I made the argument that the community would be better served by simply shutting the f*** up and letting the asset do the talking.
For example, I'm a gold investor, but I don't tell people that are bitcoin-only that they need to own gold. Instead, I just mind my own business. Bitcoiners seem incapable of this. Natalie also gets it wrong when she says that gold “didn’t work” — yet it is the main reserve asset of many Central Banks, which is a dream scenario for bitcoiners (becoming a Central Bank reserve asset). During the interview, Natalie claims:
“I think the American dream has really been hijacked. We tried gold; it didn't work. It was papered over. That system has failed the American people, and Bitcoin does provide hope for us, the working class. We want to be able to work for something that has to be measured by a free market so that we can see real value emerge, as opposed to being captured by politics and bureaucracy, which ultimately is a system that benefits the few at the expense of everyone else…”
All this did was remind me of Celsius's Alex Minsky—now with his company bankrupt and dealing with criminal liability for running a crypto scheme—who said nearly the same nonsensical argument about gold, claiming in a debate with Peter Schiff that gold had "zero value".
Bitcoin and gold have different properties—each with their own positives and negatives—but anybody telling you that gold has zero value or has failed is either catastrophically misinformed or simply not arguing in good faith, in my opinion.
And so, we forge forward another day, where owning whatever sound money assets we want to own—gold, silver, commodities, housing, etc.—still remains the obvious choice. Tensions in the Middle East are still simmering, and the United States still has the urgency of fiscal dominance. By virtue of those two things alone, pretty much anything that has a fixed supply is going to wind up going up in price, in my opinion. If I had to deliver general advice in one saying it would be “take it easy…but take it”.
What I mean by that is embrace the fact that from an investment perspective, things appear to be moving as we planned, but don’t get cocky or arrogant, and to remember that in a broader market sell-off, nearly everything can drop in value. However, as the only tool in the Fed's toolbox remains printing money—which I believe they will do no matter how bad inflation is if the market crashes—any such crash in sound money would likely be short.
For today, the world hasn’t ended and the US is not experiencing hyperinflation. Treasury auctions haven't failed and the market is still living to fight for one more day. So, onward and upward — take it easy, but take it.
QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. I didn’t double check any numbers or figures in this piece and am generally lazy with my research. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. Contributor posts and curated content are posted either with the author’s permission or under a Creative Commons license. This is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. Sometimes I just lose money by misplacing it. I’m generally irresponsible. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. Do your research elsewhere. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it numerous times because it’s that important that you know.
DNA-testing company 23andMe soared in the early cash session in New York on news that Anne Wojcicki, the CEO, plans to take the struggling company private after three years on the public markets. The company once sported a $6 billion valuation and has since collapsed to $235 million.
Wojcicki's big announcement was made in a public filing late Wednesday. The filing stated that she "is considering making a proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of 23andMe."
The filing noted that she would reject any other buyer taking over the company. Her ownership stake is around 20% of the total outstanding shares. This means she controls 49.99% of the company's voting power, making it impossible for anyone to purchase the human genetics and biopharmaceutical company.
Around 1030 ET, shares of 23andMe jumped 48% to 53 cents a share. On Wednesday, they were at a record low of $0.36.
Bloomberg data shows 32 million shares, or 10.77% of the float, is short. This leaves room for squeezes.
In 2021, 23andMe went public through a special-purpose acquisition company sponsored by Virgin Group founder Richard Branson. At the time, the company's value jumped to $5.8 billion. By 2022, the valuation plunged to as low as $1 billion.
"As sales of its DNA testing kits have slowed in recent years, 23andMe has pivoted to offering subscription products in hopes of creating repeat customers for its consumer business," Bloomberg pointed out.
There were fears earlier this year that 23andMe would be sold to an overseas PE firm. Thankfully, this has not happened because it would be a national security risk.
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,
Those who involved themselves in Bitcoin markets after 2017 encountered a different operation and ideal than those who came before. Today, no one much cares about what came before, speaking of 2010-2016. They are only watching the upward price momentum and are thrilled for the increase in the asset valuation of their portfolio.
Gone is the talk of separating money and state, of a market-based means of exchange, of genuine revolution that would extend from money to the whole of politics the world over. And gone is the talk of changing the operation of money as a means of changing the prospects for freedom itself. The enthusiasts around Bitcoin have different goals in mind.
And during this entire period, the exact time when this digital asset might have protected multitudes of users and businesses from rapacious inflation growing out of the worst and most globalized experience of corporatist statism in modern history, made possible due to the money monopoly of central banks that funded the operation, the original asset that carries the symbol BTC was systematically diverted from its original purpose.
The ideal was nicely articulated by F.A. Hayek in 1974. Much of his career as an economist was spent arguing for sound monetary policies. At every important turning point, he faced the same problem: governments and the institutions they serve did not want sound money. They wanted to manipulate the currency system to benefit elites, not the public. Finally, he refined his argument. He concluded that the only real answer was a complete divorce of money and power.
“Nothing can be more welcome than depriving government of its power over money and so stopping the apparently irresistible trend towards an accelerating increase of the share of the national income it is able to claim,” he wrote in 1976 (two years after his Nobel Prize).
“If allowed to continue, this trend would in a few years bring us to a state in which governments would claim 100 per cent of all resources—and would in consequence become literally ‘totalitarian’.”
“It may turn out that cutting off government from the tap which supplies it with additional money for its use may prove as important in order to stop the inherent tendency of unlimited government to grow indefinitely, which is becoming as menacing a danger to the future of civilisation as the badness of the money it has supplied.”
The problem in achieving this ideal was technical and institutional. So long as state money worked, there was no real drive to change it. Certainly the push would never come from the ruling classes who benefit from the present system, which is precisely where every old argument for the gold standard faltered. How to get around this problem?
In 2009, a pseudonymous developer or group released a white paper, written in language for computer scientists and not economists, for a peer-to-peer system of digital cash. For most economists at the time, its functioning was opaque and not quite believable. The proof came in the functioning itself which unfolded over the course of 2010. To summarize, it deployed a distributed ledger, double-key cryptography, and a protocol of fixed quantity to release a new form of money that operationally tied together money itself and a settlement system in one.
In other words, Bitcoin achieved the ideal about which Hayek could only dream. The key to making it all possible was the distributed ledger itself, which relied on the internet to globalize the nodes of operation, bringing a new form of accountability we had never seen in operation before. The notion of melding together the means of payment plus the mechanisms of settlement on this scale was something that had previously not been possible. And yet there it was, earning its way into the market with ever increasing valuations made possible by the distributed ledger.
So, yes, I became an early enthusiast, writing hundreds of articles, even publishing a book in 2015 called Bit By Bit: How P2P Is Freeing the World.
I could not have known it at the time, but those were in fact the last days of the ideal and just before the protocol came to be controlled by a consolidated group of developers who jettisoned entirely the idea of peer-to-peer cash to turn it into a high-earning digital security, not a competitor with state-based money but rather an asset designed not to use but hold with third-party intermediaries controlling access.
We saw all this unfold in real time and many of us were aghast. All that is left to us is to tell the story, which has not been done in a complete form until now. Roger Ver’s new book Hijacking Bitcoin does the job. It is a book for the ages simply because it lays out all the facts of the case and lets readers come to their own conclusion.
I was honored to write the foreword, which follows:
The story you will read here is of tragedy, the chronicle of an emancipationist monetary technology subverted to other ends. It’s a painful read, to be sure, and the first time this story has been told with this much detail and sophistication. We had the chance to free the world. That chance was missed, likely hijacked and subverted.
Those of us who watched Bitcoin from the earliest days saw with fascination how it gained traction and seemed to offer a viable alternative path for the future of money. At long last, after thousands of years of government corruption of money, we finally had a technology that was untouchable, sound, stable, democratic, incorruptible, and a fulfillment of the vision of the great champions of freedom from all history. At last, money could be liberated from state control and thus achieve economic rather than political goals—prosperity for everyone versus war, inflation, and state expansion.
That was the vision in any case. Alas, it did not happen. Bitcoin adoption is lower today than it was five years ago. It is not on a trajectory of final victory but on a different path to gradually increase in price for its earlier adopters. In short, the technology was betrayed by small changes that hardly anyone understood at the time.
I certainly did not. I had been playing with Bitcoin for a few years and was mainly astounded at the speed of settlement, the low cost of transactions, and the ability for anyone without a bank to send or receive it without financial mediation. That’s a miracle about which I wrote rhapsodically at the time. I held a CryptoCurrency Conference in Atlanta, Georgia, in October 2013 that focused on the intellectual and technical side of things. It was among the first national conferences on the topic, but even at this event, I noticed two sides coalescing: those who believed in monetary competition and those whose sole commitment was to one protocol.
My first clue that something had gone wrong came two years later, when for the first time I saw that the network had been seriously clogged. Transaction fees soared, settlement slowed to a crawl, and vast numbers of on-ramps and off-ramps were closing due to high compliance costs. I did not understand. I reached out to a number of experts who explained to me about a quiet civil war that had developed within the crypto world. The so-called “maximalists” had turned against widespread adoption. They liked the high fees. They did not mind the slow settlements. And many were involving themselves in the dwindling number of crypto exchanges that were still in operation thanks to a government crackdown.
At the same time, new technologies were becoming available that vastly improved the efficiency and availability of exchange in fiat dollars. They included Venmo, Zelle, CashApp, FB payments, and many others besides, in addition to smartphone attachments and iPads that enabled any merchant of any size to process credit cards. These technologies were completely different from Bitcoin because they were permission-based and mediated by financial companies. But to users, they seemed great and their presence in the marketplace crowded out the use case of Bitcoin at the very time that my beloved technology had become an unrecognizable version of itself.
The forking of Bitcoin into Bitcoin Cash occurred two years later, in 2017, and it was accompanied by great cries and screams as if something horrible was happening. In fact, all that was happening was a mere restoration of the original vision of the founder Satoshi Nakamoto. He believed with the monetary historians of the past that the key to turning any commodity into widespread money was adoption and use. It’s impossible to even imagine conditions under which any commodity could take on the form of money without a viable and marketable use case. Bitcoin Cash was an attempt to restore that.
The time to ramp up adoption of this new technology was 2013-2016, but that moment was squeezed in two directions: the deliberate throttling of the ability of the technology to scale and the push of new payment systems to crowd out the use case. As this book demonstrates, by late 2013, Bitcoin had already been targeted for capture. By the time Bitcoin Cash came to the rescue, the network had changed its entire focus from use to holding what we have and building second-layer technologies to deal with the scaling issues. Here we are in 2024 with an industry struggling to find its way within a niche while the dreams of a “to-the-moon” price are fading into memory.
This is the book that had to be written. It is a story of a missed opportunity to change the world, a tragic tale of subversion and betrayal. But it is also a hopeful story of efforts we can make to ensure that the hijacking of Bitcoin is not the final chapter. There is still the chance for this great innovation to liberate the world but the path from here to there turns out to be more circuitous than any of us ever imagined.
Roger Ver does not blow his own trumpet in this book, but he truly is a hero of this saga, not only deeply knowledgeable of the technologies but also a man who has clung to an emancipatory vision of Bitcoin from the earliest days through the present. I share his commitment to the idea of peer-to-peer currency for the masses, alongside a competitive marketplace for free-enterprise monies. This is a hugely important documentary history, and the polemic alone will challenge anyone who believes himself to be on the other side. Regardless, this book had to exist, however painful. It’s a gift to the world.
Does this story seem familiar? Indeed it does. We’ve seen this trajectory in sector after sector. Institutions born and built by ideals are later converted by various forces of power, access, and nefarious intent into something else entirely. We’ve seen this happen to digital tech in particular and the Internet generally, not to mention medicine, public health, science, liberalism, and so much else. The story of Bitcoin follows the same trajectory, a seemingly immaculate conception turned toward a different purpose, and serving again as a reminder that on this side of heaven, there will never be an institution or idea immune to compromise and corruption.
While we're sure social media sites are busy moderating "misinformation" once again ahead of the all-important 2024 election, one influencer is using Instagram to give his followers tips on sneaking into Britain and making £6,000 a month working illegally in the drug trade.
'You know there are a lot of brothers and sisters in hardship. Can you show how to go there unnoticed, without being detected? How do they do it?' he says in one of his video clips.
Kozak Braci, an Albanian social media influencer with over 500,000 followers on TikTok and Instagram, has hosted live tours of cannabis farms and offered insights into profiting from criminal activities in the UK during his streams, according to a new profile from the Daily Mail.
The Daily Mail reported that one image captures Braci standing beside a man in a black SUV, with a house displaying the Union flag in the background. In another photo, the influencer, whose chest and right arm are adorned with tattoos of AK-47s, sports a Chelsea shirt in front of a red Audi.
Braci, who boasts that he earns £25,000 a month from his social media platforms, frequently posts pictures of himself with luxury cars and designer items.
"It's great to stay in the cannabis house. I can live there without a problem," he tells his followers.
Graham Wettone, an ex-Met Police officer, reacted to the videos shown to him by characterizing them as glorifying drug production in the UK and enticing would-be criminals to come to Britain.
Earlier this year, it was revealed that the Home Office intends to pay Albanian influencers £100,000 to discourage their followers from entering Britain illegally. This modern twist on the public information film aims to reach groups susceptible to traffickers' falsehoods. The initiative, devised by Cass Horowitz of 'Brand Rishi' fame, has been criticized by activists as ineffective 'toy town tinkering.'
A United Nations report indicates that Albanian criminals now dominate the UK's cocaine market, importing the drug via south-east England's ports with the aid of violent European gangs. Among these, the Hellbanianz gang from East London openly flaunts its criminal endeavors on social media.
Additionally, in the first four months of the year, 80 Albanian migrants were collectively sentenced to 130 years in prison.
Tik Tok commented: "TikTok works closely with UK law enforcement, the National Crime Agency and organisations such as STOP THE TRAFFIK to fight this industry-wide issue, and our steadfast efforts helped reduce the number of small boat crossings last year, according to Border Officials. We continue to strictly maintain a zero tolerance approach to human exploitation and proactively find over 95% of content we remove for breaking these rules."
Meta responded: "We have removed the violating content brought to our attention. Buying, selling or soliciting drugs is not allowed on our platforms; our teams use a mix of technology and human review to remove this content as quickly as possible, and we work with the police and youth organisations to get better at detection."
By Tsvetana Paraskova of Oilprice.com
Europe’s new car sales fell in March for the first time this year, dragged down by a decline in electric vehicle (EV) registrations and the timing of the Easter holidays, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, said on Thursday.
All new car sales in the European Union car market dropped by 5.2% year-on-year to 1 million units in March, while passenger vehicle sales in Europe including non-EU members such as the UK and Norway fell by 2.8%, ACEA’s data showed.
In the EU, new electric vehicle sales slumped by 11.3% to 134,397 units in March, led by a major 29% decline in EV sales in the biggest European market, Germany.
Car sales in Norway, where most new vehicle registrations are EVs, plunged from over 19,000 cars in March 2023 to 9,750 units last month.
As EV sales fell in the EU, their market share shrank from 13.9% in March 2023 to 13% in the same month of 2024.
Among the three largest BEV markets, Belgium (+23.8%) and France (+10.9%) enjoyed double-digit increases, while Germany faced a significant decrease of 28.9%, ACEA said.
The EU saw a total of 332,999 new battery-electric cars registered during the first quarter of 2024, up by 3.8% compared to the same quarter last year.
Despite the general market decline, hybrid-electric car registrations in the EU jumped by 12.6% in March 2024, with France and Italy driving the increase. The share of hybrid car sales rose to 29% of the new sales last month, up from 24.4% in March 2023.
The slowdown in EV sales in recent months has not been limited to Europe.
Tesla, for example, saw its deliveries slump in the first quarter for the first annual drop since the start of the pandemic in 2020, missing analyst forecasts by a mile in a sign that even price cuts haven’t been able to stave off an increasingly heated competition on the EV market.
SUMMARY:
there it is
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 19, 2024
IRAN'S NUCLEAR FACILITIES REMAIN UNHARMED - STATE TV https://t.co/67rWpzONg4
Israel - having once again ignored Biden's pleadings not to escalate the already tense situation - is retaliating against Iran's weekend strike, which was itself a retaliation against Israel bombing Iran's embassy in Syria on April 1.
Moments ago futures dumped, oil prices spiked, and treasury yields slumped amid social media reports and Reuters headlines that there have been three "huge explosions" near the central Iran cities of Natanz (location of an Iranian nuclear power plant) and Isfahan (location of the Iranian Nuclear Technology Center which is suspected of being the center of Iran's nuclear weapons program), as well as simultaneous explosions in Iraq and Syria, where the Israel air force appears to be targeting pro-Iranian militias.
IRANIAN MEDIA CONFIRMS AN ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRANIAN TERRITORY
IRANIAN STATE MEDIA IS REPORTING THAT TONIGHT’S AIRSTRIKE BY THE ISRAEL AIR FORCE MAY HAVE TARGETED THE 8TH TACTICAL AIRBASE OF THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE, WITHIN ISFAHAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, WHICH CONTAINS MULTIPLE SQUADRONS OF F-14 “TOMCAT” FIGHTER AIRCRAFT.
ABC NEWS REPORTS THAT ISRAELI MISSILES HIT A SITE IN IRAN
IRAN STATE MEDIA SAYS 'NO FLY ZONE' ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN REGION
IRANIAN MEDIA: 3 HUGE EXPLOSIONS WERE HEARD IN ISFAHAN, SOUTH OF TEHRAN
JERUSALEM POST: SIMULTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN IRAN, SYRIA, AND IRAQ ACCORDING TO INITIAL REPORTS
IRAN'S FARS NEWS AGENCY SAYS EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN CENTRAL ISFAHAN AIRPORT, REASON UNKNOWN
ISRAELI MISSILES HIT IRAN SITE, US OFFICIAL SAYS: ABC
Some more reports:
🚨 BREAKING: Israel appears to have attacked Esfahan, Iran.
— Holly Dagres (@hdagres) April 19, 2024
This video was posted by the IRGC. pic.twitter.com/YLEFEHcxqQ
Iraqi Sources are reporting that the Airstrikes on the Capital of Baghdad have Targeted a Building in which a High-Ranking Meeting was taking place involving several Iranian-Backed Groups and Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 19, 2024
Explosions so far have been reported in the last few minutes near the Cities of Isfahan and Natanz in Central Iran, which both contain Significant Facilities for the Iranian Nuclear Program.
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) April 19, 2024
The Natanz nuclear facility is located in Isfahan! https://t.co/OSSqWRCR2b
— EndGameWW3 🇺🇸 (@EndGameWW3) April 19, 2024
⚡️Iranian Outlet Fars:
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2024
An explosion was heard in the city of Qahjavaristan, Isfahan
Some local sources report that an explosion was heard in the city of Qahjavaristan in the northwest of Isfahan.
The cause of these noises is still unknown, and Fars reporter's follow-up…
👀👀👀👀👀 https://t.co/OpKd5MNdz4
— Israel War Room (@IsraelWarRoom) April 19, 2024
Here is Marco Rubio telling us more or less what happened:
Israel has the ability to conduct strikes against targets inside Iran without entering Iranian air space from aircraft over Syrian and Iraqi airspace
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) April 19, 2024
A video of the explosions in Iran:
🚨#BREAKING : 🇮🇷💥🔔Explosions so far have been reported in the last few minutes near the Cities of Isfahan and Natanz in ⛳️ Central Iran, which both contain Significant Facilities for the Iranian Nuclear Program.
— SHORT NEWS (@BuonJose11019) April 19, 2024
pic.twitter.com/xBPteeYA64
There have also been reports of drone activity over Iraq:
Unconfirmed reports of drone activity over Baghdad, Iraq. pic.twitter.com/Dp9E1i28pv
— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) April 19, 2024
Flights above central Iran are diverting from their designations:
Two FlyDubai flights in central #Iran are diverting from their designated flight plans. Unclear why. pic.twitter.com/8Arh1zDaiC
— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) April 19, 2024
... as the airspace over the region is rapidly clearing:
Aerial space is rapidly clearing and being diverted. pic.twitter.com/ScWfOwsZtV
— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) April 19, 2024
⚡️#BREAKING NOTAM over parts of Iran pic.twitter.com/aupFwGL2oy
— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2024
Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Israeli airstrikes are targeting a building where a high level meeting was being held among groups supported by Iran and the IRGC:
UNCONFIRMED: Iraqi sources report that airstrikes in the capital city of Baghdad have targeted a building where a high-level meeting was being held with the presence of several groups supported by Iran and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
— Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) April 19, 2024
The market reaction has been immediate, with S&P futures dumping initially but then, as speculation grows that this is another measured, scripted response to the measured, scripted initial attack by Iran, the market is starting to normalize fast.
... with oil initially surging, then dropping.
... and gold also first surged above $2400, only to slide right back...
... with Silver fading all the gains...
...and Treasuries are aggressively bid but they too are now fading.
Even as the Bitcoin algos reprice WW3... for the second time in 5 days.
And as traders brace for the worst, because even if Israel hopes to present a "measured" retaliation now it's a question of what Iran will do next, it once again appears that this was just the latest episode in the carefully scripted middle-eastern "war" soap opera.
🎯
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 19, 2024
More as we get it, until then, fear not: he is watching everything... closely.
Fears of a luxury slowdown are materializing. New data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry shows that exports of luxury timepieces tumbled the most since 2020 as demand crashed in Asia.
Swiss watch exports dropped in March. Their value fell by 16.1% compared with the same month in 2023 to 2 billion Swiss francs ($2.2 billion). Cratering demand in China and Hong Kong caused most of the decline. Weakness was reported across all six main markets.
Exports to mainland China, the second-biggest market for Swiss watches, plunged 42%, the worst decline since March 2020, when the global economy began seizing up due to government-enforced lockdowns. Shipments to Hong Kong tumbled even more, down 44%.
"The negative trend is even worse than we expected and the decline in China is really worrying and probably indicates that inventories in the region were once again too high," Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel in Switzerland, told Bloomberg.
Faltering demand for Swiss watches comes one day after LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world's largest luxury group, controlled by the family of billionaire Bernard Arnault, reported that "uncertain geopolitical and economic environment" has weighed on luxury spending.
LVMH shares in Paris are 10.5% below the peak put in early last year.
For a broader view of global luxury stocks, the MSCI World Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods Index also shows the index well below (-21%) the peak put in at the end of 2021.
A combination of China's slower-than-expected economic recovery and generational highs in interest rates across the Western world are some of the reasons why a global slowdown in the luxury market has materialized.
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
This is credible enough of a reason to justify a conventional NATO intervention in defense of Israel without giving Ukraine grounds to claim that there are double standards at play.
Ukraine became jealous like never before after NATO members helped shoot down Iranian missiles en route to Israel earlier this month yet won’t lift a finger to help Ukraine shoot down Russian ones.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that “the difficulty with what you suggest (about the UK shooting down Russian missiles) is if you want to avoid an escalation in terms of a wider European war, I think the one thing you do need to avoid is NATO troops directly engaging Russian troops.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby responded to a similar question by saying “Look: different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture. And [President Joe Biden] has been clear from the beginning [of the Ukraine hostilities] that the US is not going to be involved in that conflict in a combat role.” Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Andrey Yermak didn’t buy their explanations, however, and demanded that the West start shooting down Russian missiles just like they shot down Iranian ones.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg tried allaying Ukraine’s jealousy by declaring that “if allies face a choice between meeting NATO capability targets and providing more aid to Ukraine, my message is clear: send more to Ukraine.”
Even though he’s telling members to prioritize Ukraine’s interests over their own national ones, Kiev isn’t expected to calm down since it still knows that NATO won’t come to its rescue in this respect like the bloc just did for Israel.
That’s where EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell’s nifty excuse comes in. As he explained, “Iran’s attacks flew over air bases of the armies of France, the US, the UK and Jordan. They have gone over their bases, which then acted in self-defense. There are no air bases of the UK, or the US, much less Jordan of course, on Ukrainian territory or in the territory Russian missiles fly over. Therefore, the same answer cannot be given because the circumstances are not the same.”
This is credible enough of a reason to justify a conventional NATO intervention in defense of Israel without giving Ukraine grounds to claim that there are double standards at play.
The only way that Kiev could try flipping the tables is in the far-fetched event that it officially admits the presence of NATO troops on its territory, which Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski described as an “open secret” last month, and pinpoints their bases to prove that the bloc does nothing as Russian missiles fly overhead.
That is extremely unlikely to happen, however, since it would represent a major security risk. Ukrainian officials might still hint that this is the case and perhaps leak vague information about it into their national media and/or to international media via their “agents of influence”, but they’re almost certainly not going to cross the red line of disclosing specific details that could put those troops at risk. Borrell, for all his professional faults, knows this and thus crafted his nifty excuse that inspired this analysis.
Giving credit where it’s due, that was a wise move since his explanation is consistent enough to dispel Ukraine’s complaints about NATO’s double standards and consequent perception of being less important to the bloc than Israel is, both of which are true but can now be more plausibly denied. Ukraine should accept that NATO isn’t going to treat it and Israel as equals, with the only consolation being if some members send it more Patriot systems, but that’s not the same as them shooting down Russian missiles.
Authored by Thomas Brooke via ReMix News,
A Congolese migrant who had his deportation from the U.K. blocked by an airline’s cabin crew and previously campaigned outside a detention center with a sign that read, “Migrants are not criminals,” has pleaded guilty to raping a 15-year-old girl.
Anicet Mayela entered his guilty plea at Oxford Crown Court last Friday for one count of rape of a former economics student.
The court heard how there was a high level of “dangerousness” surrounding the attack, which is understood to have taken place between Dec. 1 and Dec. 31 last year.
The Congolese national had been living in Britain since 2004 when he paid smugglers to help him escape his country of origin where he claimed he was being persecuted.
Several attempts by the U.K. Home Office to deport him were thwarted by feigned injuries and legal challenges, including an incident back in May 2005 when a planned deportation flight was prevented from taking off by Air France cabin crew who claimed public officials had broken Mayela’s hand after handcuffing him.
With the aid of left-wing charities, including the Institute of Race Relations, and immigration lawyers, the Congolese national won leave to remain in Britain later that year after successfully arguing a return to his homeland would be a violation of his human rights.
Mayela used the opportunity to actively campaign against the deportation of illegal migrants, participating in a demonstration near his detention center in Oxford where he spoke to the BBC and hung a sign around his neck that read, “Migrants are not criminals.”
“I am here to support my friends. I have been inside here, and at Colnbrook,” he told the U.K.’s public broadcaster from outside the detention center.
On Friday, Mayela was ordered to remain in custody while a pre-sentencing report was prepared.
He is scheduled to return for sentencing on May 10.
Authored by 'El Sultan Bitcoin' via Bitcoin Magazine,
The Bitcoin halving event, a pivotal occurrence, is scheduled for April, 19 2024. This quadrennial event will reduce the block subsidy for Bitcoin miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thereby halving the reward that miners receive for their efforts.
Such events have historically led to profound shifts in the mining landscape, potentially influencing various economic and operational facets of Bitcoin mining.
After the halving, the immediate impact is a considerable decrease in miner revenue due to the reduced block subsidy. This could lead to a decline in the hashrate as less efficient miners may turn unprofitable and exit the network. Luxor’s Hashrate Index Research Team projects about 3-7% of Bitcoin’s hashrate could go offline if Bitcoin’s price maintains its current level. However, if prices fall, up to 16% of the hashrate could become economically unviable, depending on the trajectory of Bitcoin prices and transaction fees post-halving.
The hashrate, a critical security measure for Bitcoin, might adjust along with difficulty levels to align with the new economic realities. Luxor’s analysis suggests different scenarios where the network's hashrate could end up ranging from 639 EH/s to 674 EH/s by year's end, reflecting adjustments to the new earning potential post-halving.
Post-halving, the profitability of different ASIC models will become crucial as the mining reward drops. Lower rewards mean that only the most efficient machines will be able to operate profitably if the price of Bitcoin does not see a significant increase. For instance, according to Luxor’s projections, next-generation ASICs like the S19 XP and M30S++ might have breakeven power costs ranging from $0.07/kWh to $0.15/kWh, depending on post-Halving hashprice.
This shift in profitability will likely lead to a repricing of ASIC machines. Historical data suggests that ASIC prices are highly correlated with hashprice; therefore, the anticipated reduction in hashprice will prompt a downward adjustment in ASIC values. This will particularly impact older and less efficient models, potentially accelerating their phase-out from the market.
To combat reduced profitability, miners are increasingly turning to custom ASIC firmware to improve the efficiency of their hardware. Firmware like LuxOS and BraiinsOS can enhance the performance of machines by optimizing their power usage and hashrate output, thus lowering the breakeven point for electricity costs. For example, underclocking an S19 with custom firmware could extend its operational viability by reducing its power draw, thereby maintaining profitability even at lower hashprices.
Public miners, in particular, are adopting custom firmware to boost the efficiency of their fleets. Companies like CleanSpark and Marathon have reported using custom solutions to enhance their operational efficiencies. This trend is expected to grow as more miners seek to maximize their output and minimize costs in the face of decreasing block rewards.
The 2024 Bitcoin Halving is set to reshape the mining landscape significantly, just as previous halvings have. While the exact outcomes are uncertain, the event will undoubtedly present both challenges and opportunities. Miners who plan strategically, taking into account both economic forecasts and operational efficiencies, will be better positioned to navigate the post-halving environment.
For those in the Bitcoin mining industry, staying informed and adaptable will be key to leveraging the halving event as an opportunity rather than a setback. With the right preparations, particularly in ASIC management and firmware optimization, miners can continue to thrive even under tightened economic conditions.
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