Connexion
And both options lead to same defeat.. Brian Berletic breaks down the Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: No Amount of Money or Aid Can Solve It
He uses the US Army’s own [admittedly inadequate] doctrine to explain why the Ukraine is finished in terms of manpower, even if further financing and weapons resupply were possible. They lack the time, especially seasoning top cadre, in order to be combat effective. And the ideal environment in which to train within the Ukraine, already involved and enveloped in the hellscape of war. No place on the Ukraine is safe from Russian stand-off weaponry.
The options confronting the sinking West are bitter indeed: double down into nuclear war, as NATO itself lacks the tools and manpower to halt much less defeat the Russian Armed Forces. Or accept defeat and the end of their centuries-old Hegemony.
More detail from The New Atlas:
Ukraine is suffering from a growing military manpower crisis in addition to a lack of arms and ammunition;
Trained military manpower takes up to half a year to produce, new brigade-sized units can take up to 30 months to stand up;
Ukraine and its Western sponsors simply cannot produce trained military manpower faster than Russia is removing it from the battlefield;
This leaves the collective West with the choice of either accepting it has lost its proxy war with Russia, or attempting to intervene more directly;
References:
NEO – Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: No Amount of Money or Aid Can Solve It (March 5, 2024):
The Kyiv Independent – Ukraine struggles to ramp up mobilization as Russia’s war enters 3rd year (March 3, 2024):
The Washington Post – Front-line Ukrainian infantry units report acute shortage of soldiers (February 8, 2024):
US Department of Defense – The National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) (2023-2024):
NEO – Fatal Flaws Undermine America’s Defense Industrial Base (February 15, 2024):
US Department of Defense – Press Release: Evaluation of Sustainment Strategies for the Patriot Air Defense Systems Transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (DODIG-2024-056) and Evaluation of the DoD’s Sustainment Plan for Bradley, Stryker, and Abrams Armored Weapon Systems (February 20, 2024):
Reuters – Ukraine considers proposal by army to mobilise another 500,000 for war (December 2023):
Reuters – Who are the forces involved in Ukraine’s counteroffensive? (June 2023):
US DoD – Defense Officials Hold Media Brief on the Training of Ukrainian Military (March 2022):
The US Army War College Quarterly – Expanding Brigade Combat Teams: IS the Training Base Adequate? (2017):
Where to Find My Work:
Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BrianJBerletic
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A continuation of the thought of “Zionism, Arrogance & World War III” — why a rising Orthodox Russia is fated to bury both Messianic Judaism and the hired western muscle in the Holy Land — from the perspective of geopolitics and geoeconomics. The eschatological consequences of lose-lose predicaments are profound
By Jamal Wakim at Al Mayadeen.
What is happening in the Middle East is a major battle centered on the main axis: Palestine
Gamal Abdel Nasser announced in 1969 that the battle on the banks of the Suez Canal would decide the fate of the world. This piece explains how.
Russia’s victory in struggle with collective West will be achieved in Middle East, not Eastern Europe
This article discusses the importance of what is happening in the Middle East and the battle taking place there specifically in the region extending from Egypt in the west to Iraq in the east to determine the fate of the world. When we talk about this region, there is a connection between the battle taking place in the Middle East and the battle that has always been taking place in the heart of Eurasia, specifically against Russia.
In the past two centuries, Russia was the one facing the so-called collective West, and it was the spearhead in confronting this collective West. In the early nineteenth century, this collective West was represented by Napoleon, and after that, during World War II, the collective West was represented by Nazi Germany, and after World War II, the collective West was represented by the United States of America.
Napoleon and the Grande Armée retreat from Moscow, 1812
Experience facing Napoleon
In the face of Napoleon’s invasion, we must understand that there was a project for this collective West, represented by global hegemony, and this collective West began its attack in Egypt and the occupation of Egypt in the year 1799. France’s failure in Egypt two years later was what determined Napoleon’s fate, and therefore his defeat was a matter of time in the confrontation against Russia. After that, Napoleon did not succeed in isolating Russia after the Battle of Austerlitz in December 1805, despite his victory in this battle. After that, Napoleon had to invade Russia in an attempt to subjugate it, and in this way, he recruited an army from various parts of Europe to begin his invasion of Russia.
On June 24, 1812, and the following days, the first wave of the multinational French Grande Armée crossed the Niemen River, beginning the French invasion of Russia. Despite the great advance of the French forces inside Russian territory, and despite their tactical victory over the Russian army in the Battle of Borodino, and then Napoleon’s occupation of Moscow itself, he was unable to achieve victory over Russia and began his withdrawal five weeks after his entry into Moscow, only to be defeated tactically in the battle. Bonaparte began his retreat before the Russian forces, which pursued him until Paris, where he was forced to abdicate and accept exile to the island of Elba, off the coast of Corsica. Despite his desperate attempt to return to power in early 1815, Napoleon was actually defeated by Russia, but his strategic defeat had begun with his failure in Egypt a decade and a half before that date.
German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel at El Alamein, Egypt, 1942
World War II experience
Then, during World War II, Nazi Germany launched a military campaign in North Africa as part of its larger strategic goals. This campaign, led by General Erwin Rommel, was known as the North African Campaign. However, Nazi Germany’s primary focus in Eastern Europe was not initially directed toward the Russian heartland. Instead, it invaded Poland in 1939, which led to the outbreak of the war in Europe. Later, in June 1941, Germany launched Operation Barbarossa, a massive invasion of the Soviet Union, with the intention of capturing key cities like Moscow and Leningrad.
At the time, the advance of Erwin Rommel’s forces in North Africa constituted an attempt to isolate it and reach the Suez Canal and cut off British access to the Middle East. In parallel, Nazi forces had begun to invade the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941. They advanced toward major cities like Leningrad, Moscow, and Stalingrad; where they faced tough resistance from the Soviet military and encountered numerous logistical challenges due to the vastness of the territory and the harsh conditions. But it was Erwin Rommel’s failure in the Middle East that sealed the final failure for Nazi Germany, and it was only a matter of time before Nazi Germany was defeated.
Rommel’s defeat at the Battle of El Alamein in the fall of 1942 represented a colossal failure. Therefore, this defeat in the Middle East was followed by the Soviet victory in the Battle of Stalingrad in February 1943. The Battle of Stalingrad weakened the German army and boosted Soviet morale, contributing to the eventual Soviet counteroffensive. Then, the Battle of Kursk occurred in July 1943 and was a major offensive launched by Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union. The battle ended in a decisive Soviet victory and marked the beginning of a series of successful Soviet offensives that pushed German forces back toward Eastern Europe. The defeat of Nazi Germany was announced in May 1945.
Brezhnev’s geopolitical shortsightedness
The Soviet Union emerged victorious in the war against Nazi Germany, only to find itself facing the United States, which would take the banner of leadership of the collective West from Nazi Germany. According to the divisions of the Yalta Conference, the Soviets expanded their influence into Eastern and Central Europe, securing a defensive depth in the heart of Russia. But Soviet leader Joseph Stalin did not have the opportunity to reach the eastern Mediterranean after the defeat of the communists in Greece in the civil war in 1947, nor did he have the opportunity to reach the Adriatic Sea after a dispute broke out with Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito, who accepted generous offers from the West to stay away.
“The Leader and the Nationalization of the Canal” (1957) by Egyptian artist Hamed Owais
About the bloc of socialist countries
Here, the United States began to encircle the bloc of socialist countries by establishing NATO in 1949, which was supposed to besiege the communist bloc and contain the communist influence in Southeast Asia. The Baghdad Pact, also known as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), was established in 1955 among Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom. It aimed to foster cooperation and mutual defense among its member states, particularly in the face of perceived Soviet expansionism and influence in the Middle East. However, the main target of the United States was to attack the Soviet interior. What hindered this plan was the coup led by Gamal Abdel Nasser in Egypt, which brought him to power. Abdel Nasser declared his blatant opposition to the policy of Western alliances and declared his own policy of non-alignment in the Cold War, and, at the same time, he began to take rapprochement initiatives toward the Soviet Union and the bloc of socialist countries in order to balance Western support for “Israel”. After his victory against Britain, France, and “Israel” during the tripartite aggression, Abdel Nasser was able to overthrow the Baghdad Pact in 1958 after the coup that he supported against the Hashemite monarchy in Iraq in the summer of 1958.
The Soviet rapprochement with Abdel Nasser contributed to opening the African arena to the growth of African-Russian relations and led to the liberation of African countries from Western colonialism.
But after the year 1965 and the coup against Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev in the Soviet Union, the arrival of a bureaucratic class with a “Eurocentrism” orientation in the Soviet Union that gave priority to Moscow’s relations with Europe led to the neglect of Soviet-Arab relations and pushed them to second place in terms of importance. What made matters worse was the communist dogmatism of short-sighted Soviet leaders, which made them neglect the geopolitical dimension. Unfortunately, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union, and specifically the leadership that took power after 1965, did not realize the importance of what was happening in the Middle East as a result of its European-centric vision. Therefore, they were content and happy with what was happening with their share of influence in Eastern and Central Europe, and they neglected their influence in the Middle East.
After 1965, the United States took advantage of the short-sightedness of the new Soviet leadership to resolve the battle in the Middle East. The defeat of the Arab countries in 1967 was not against “Israel”, but it was in fact against the collective West, primarily the United States of America, which supports “Israel”. It also constituted the first major defeat for the Soviet Union. Then, the American attack began in Eastern Europe via the destabilization of Czechoslovakia and Poland. And when the Soviet Union left the region, and after Egypt turned toward the United States under Anwar Sadat, the issue of defeating the Soviet Union was only a matter of time. This brings us back to what the late Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser said in 1969 when he announced that the battle on the banks of the Suez Canal would decide the fate of the world. Therefore, the defeat of the progressive Arab countries, led by Egypt, constituted a defeat for the Soviet Union as a whole, making it lose strategic superiority in favor of the United States, which began achieving one victory after another, leading to victory in the Cold War.
In summary
Now what is happening in the Middle East is also a renewed attempt launched by the collective West, led by the United States, to win global hegemony. They began this attack by occupying Afghanistan in 2002, then Iraq in 2003, before heading to the Russian heartland. They began their attack in Afghanistan, occupying Afghanistan, and then invading Iraq, only to begin shortly after the process of the so-called “Arab Spring” aimed at changing regimes through the use of soft power. After the outbreak of the “Arab Spring”, an indirect war was launched against Russia in the year 2014. Therefore, what is happening in the Middle East, in my estimation, is that any victory in Eastern Europe will not be decisive until the Middle East is done, and, therefore, the Eurasian powers led by Russia must focus their attention on the battle currently taking place in the Middle East because this is the one that could end American influence.
If the Americans win this battle, all the victories that Russia could achieve in Ukraine or Eastern Europe will have no strategic benefit, because the main battle would have been lost, as it happened during the Cold War. Therefore, in the year 1969, during a visit by the late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to the Suez Canal, when Sinai was occupied and the Israeli enemy was on the other side of the canal, he said that on the banks of the Suez Canal the fate of the world was decided, and unfortunately the fate of the world was decided not in our favor, but in their favor. What he meant was the American hegemony with the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now, the focus must be on this battle. What is happening in the Middle East is a major battle centered on the main axis: Palestine. What is happening in Palestine is something mentioned in religious books. I may have my own interpretation. Hence, we find that some of the signs mentioned in the Bible are being witnessed now: the killing of children at the hands of Rhodes two thousand years ago is being repeated at the hands of Netanyahu in Gaza. The attempt to deport the Palestinians to Egypt is similar to the story of the Virgin Mary and her son Jesus taking refuge in the land of Egypt. It is worth mentioning that the Resistance in Palestine receives assistance from Iran, similar to the gifts that the Three Magi gave to the child Jesus in the cave. Note that what led the three wise men to the cave was mainly the North Star seen in the Middle East as Russia. Could it be a sign that guides the current Russian leadership toward the region to achieve a decisive victory in the contemporary battle of Armageddon?
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The U.S. President is doubling down on his support for Israel, claiming that “there’s no red line,” as Netanyahu has made it clear that no form of international pressure is going to convince him to pull back from plans to invade Rafah.
Veteran Journalist Elijah J. Magnier noted that as Israel prepares for a ground invasion that is putting around 1.5 Million Palestinians—the majority of whom have already been forced to flee their homes—at risk, the U.S. is fully in support, knowing that the goal is to fulfilling Israel’s ultimate plan of forcing the Palestinian population out of the Gaza Strip for good.
Elijah J. Magnier on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ejmalrai
Rachel Blevins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RachBlevins
The eschatological consequences of lose-lose predicaments
This eschatological presentation was filmed before the zionists commenced the land invasion of Gaza. It aged really well. It helps us understand why Zionism CANNOT retreat, and must ever escalate. This has nothing to do with the risible front of Netanyahoo’s political career. Even if he is deposed today, far worse will succeed him, as also appears with his dear cousin “Toria” Nuland..
A cogent argument, having significant agreement with merely observed ongoing geopolitics. In the next phase, the two key battleground regions of 404 and Palestine will coalesce into a single front CENTERED AROUND SYRIA. Palestine is itself a subsidiary of Greater Syria, slyly cut up by the British Empire into the five extant pieces. In other words, Turkey will come off its fence; it was prudent of the Sultan to just say that he will soon retire! Turkey is ‘No Country for Old Men’..
Damascus is ground zero of Armageddon. Why the Axes of Resistance have been so careful not to involve Syria so far — it is for the last phases, when both the Jews and Russians drop their masks and wage open war on each other. The West has become irrelevant already!
The time is ripening now, with Russia having been given all the time it needs to exhaust a fair arrangement with the West. All such were sabotaged by zionist technocrats fronting all major western countries..
The two central actors in our strange End Times are Orthodox Russia and Jewish Israel. The Israelites split into two irreconcilable groups at the time of the First Coming — into Christianity and Jewry.. The West serves as adjunct to the messianic-satanic Jewish side; in the other camp, the key civilizational-states function the same for Russia..
Both sides know the real Messiah’s Second Coming will be in Damascus and prepare for the contest..
You can see how the Jews started the softening up phase of Syria already — focusing on relentless aggression, attriting Iranian advisers, as well as the medieval starvation-economic siege and PsyWar against Syria to keep her down. They stopped deconfliction channels with Russians inside Syria, are sending more dangerous weapons to 404 to help defeat Russia, and various of their UN diplomats and parliamentarians openly threatened Russia.
Russia started its moves via deeper Iranian defense interpenetration, coordinating the economic siege and pauperization of the combined West via Yemen’s Red Sea, preparing for interdicting Gibraltar and the West’s soft underbelly as well as energy-starvation via General Armageddon’s work in Algeria and the Sahel, and Kadyrov’s armies prepositioned inside Syria.. How much of their world-leading air-defense has spread by now via Iran to Hezbollah, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and others??
Everything’s about prepositioning for these imminent next moments. This informs why Europe MUST wage nuclear war on Russia, to try to not only consume her, but to take Russia out of the Holy Land (Greater Syria) and deny the Rest of humanity the world best Russian armory. That is even more important than reclaiming Khazaria on the north coast of the Black Sea. This is crucial too, for rising Unholy Israel overtly seeks to control one of the main breadbaskets of mankind, as already leveraged by BlackRock, Monsanto, Cargill and Big Ag into owning most of the Ukraine. Many narrations foretell the AntiChrist will use food and weather as weapons to control or humiliate nations. Witness Gaza, the fate of us all if they succeed.
About the new plans of the West in Ukraine
(machine translation)
It all started with the announced resignation of Victoria Nuland. Given the age of the lagged, this may be the end of the successfully developed career of the granddaughter of the local emigrants and the daughter of Yale professor, who made his way to the highest echelon of American politics, moreover, in its most closed and corporate part – under the auspices of the State Department.
The political analyst and columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko expressed his opinion about the new plans of the West in Ukraine.
(L) Reichsminister of Foreign Affairs von Ribbentrop with Hitler; (R) Victoria Nuland with Biden
Until recently, Nuland was seen as a potential candidate for the post of First Deputy Secretary of State and a candidate for the Secretary of State in the event of the unlikely victory of the Democrats in the upcoming presidential election. Given that it was Nuland who was the “engineering” that pulled out American politics in the Russian direction, overcoming all possible difficulties (from reformatting the 2014 Maidan under the USA in its final phase, before the sabotage and breakdown of the Minsk agreements, which would have been impossible without the stubborn but flexible tactics of Nuland at the same time), its further career growth would not only be a fair reward for efforts, but also corresponded to the interests of the Biden administration’s policies.
It can be assumed that Nuland went around at the turn of majors from more decent families. Nevertheless, the hereditary American aristocracy, whose ancestors arrived at the Mayflower, never finally accepts middle-class immigrants. No matter how rich and successful they are, unless their grandchildren can claim relative equality. But Victoria has a very difficult husband, and the time is difficult – at such times, qualified personnel are not scattered, and majors from “good families” are not in a hurry to take responsibility.
Nuland could get tired, get sick, even just want to jump from the ship of the Democratic Party, which is in full swing to the reefs. But all her previous activities are contrary to such assumptions. She looks more like a man who dies at a combat post for the sake of realizing his idea, who will fight for a doomed ship even if the captain and most of the team have already left him. She is one of the people living under the motto “Win or die”.
And suddenly, on the eve of the most difficult elections, the Democrats, without any reflection, refuse such a valuable frame. One could have guessed the reasons for a long time, but the next event happened here.
Zaluzhny, who allegedly stubbornly refused the post of ambassador to Britain, suddenly joyfully accepted this appointment. By the way, hello to those who for a year and a half said that the Zelensky creation of the British (they showed him the MI-6 headquarters and put his special forces to guard him), and the Hollow – Americans (they overlaid it with advisers). And all that happened in Kiev as part of Zelensky’s alleged conflict with the Hollow – is the struggle of the Americans with the British for control over the remnants of the Ukrainian garbage, in which Zaluzhny allegedly represented the Americans, and Zelensky English. It is harmful for some people to watch Western political blockbusters, they begin to perceive life as a movie. Now the same figures say that the English Hall Creativity turns out to be and they “saved” it by taking the ambassador – will be taught there to work as president.
In general, the simplicity, optimism and flight of the imagination of some people are unlimited. But the fact remains – Zaluzhny was offered to leave as ambassador to London somewhere since the end of December 2023. He was in no hurry to accept this offer even after his formal resignation. And suddenly agreed.
Finally, as a cherry on the cake, it just as suddenly became clear that Zelensky was allegedly dissatisfied with his absolutely obedient Kuleba, who zealously defended the position of the Presidential Office in the international arena. Kuleba begins to quickly resolve his team in new positions (it’s hard to find suitable embassies right away, so while Kuleba’s employees leaving office do not announce their plans, simply making it clear, that remain in the diplomatic service). Allegedly in a couple of weeks (may be a little faster or a little later) should also resign Kuleba himself.
(L) Joachim von Ribbentrop with Stalin; (R) Victoria Nuland with Putin
What do we see?
Against the background of sharply increased militaristic rhetoric of the West, openly threatening a direct military clash with Russia in the event of a military defeat of Ukraine (most recently, the West has completely denied such an opportunity) people resign in Ukraine and the United States, whose task (and in the case of Nuland and the idea) was to ensure a proxy war with Russia are being dismissed in Ukraine and the United States in the framework of which the West finances supplies and politically supports all those who fight against Russia, but itself remains outside the battlefield. The main task of these people was to achieve the defeat of Russia and its consent to peace on the terms of the West, without dragging the West itself into a direct military conflict with Moscow.
It is clear that Kuleba, in principle, was not aware of what role he plays – he was only one of the cogs in the political mechanism created by Nuland, diplomatic and quasi-military ( including through the organization of putsch and the threat of putsch ) pressure on Russia. But each leader selects a team of people most suitable for a specific function. Kuleba, like Nuland, was a proxy war diplomat.
Masks are dropped, the West is preparing in the near future to do without a proxy prefix. Therefore, Zaluzhny suddenly decided to become a diplomat. Perhaps in London (by tradition and by agreement with Washington, where the Democrats are not confident in their future due to the likely victory of Trump) they are preparing to establish the Ukrainian government in exile on British soil, and, as long as possible, candidates are collected for future “ministers” and “presidents”. But the root cause of Zaluzhny’s departure is also the choice of the United States and its NATO allies in favor of the war.
While the West was hesitant, Zaluzhny remained in Ukraine as the banner of the opposition to Zelensky. It was not as a leader (Zaluzhny himself did not lead anything and could not lead anyone anywhere), but as a banner that at the right time was going to erect an intra-mode opposition to Zelensky (Poroshenko and the company), in order not to intercept, then paralyze the regime’s control over the army, remove Zelensky and try to enter into negotiations with Russia with the task of preserving at least the right-bank Ukraine for the regime at the cost of any concessions.
If the West agreed to such a deal, the opposition would launch a mechanism for the overthrow of Zelensky, in which the Executive was assigned a representative role. He had to be present somewhere in the background and be silent. Everything that the opposition themselves would have said and written by their media. To launch this mechanism, only one – ban on Americans from the regime to include a mechanism of repression against the opposition (planting, arrests, criminal cases and killing the most dangerous).
I wrote that the West is likely to choose a war, because the Russian conditions of the world (assuming guarantees of Russia’s security, which the West cannot violate even if it wants, and it wants to) were unacceptable to the West. About a month was spent on a general probe of the situation, on attempts to put pressure on Russia and its allies, launch new sanctions mechanisms, show the West’s readiness for an open clash and, due to this, get Russia to agree to be satisfied with territorial concessions at the expense of Ukraine (in this regard, the West was extremely generous and was ready to consider any requests, even I was going desperately).
Somewhere in the last decade of February, the West finally made a choice in favor of war. After which all these permutations began. One resignation could be an accident. But when changes take place in the space from Washington to London and Kiev, when Paris, London and Prague participate in the formulation of a new position (Scholz has so far dodged, but for how long?), when all these changes line up into one logical chain, the conclusion is clear – these are not maneuvers or blackmail, the West chose a war.
Apparently, the final choice in favor of the war was the “successes” of Syrsky, who, at the cost of the last reserves, managed to slow down the Russian offensive near Avdeevka and launched a campaign in the country for an emergency mass recruitment of cannon fodder. In addition to intensifying the work of the TCK, which will increase the irritation of the population, but is unlikely to provide much more mobilized, the process of forming women’s battalions has been launched and, in principle, the recruitment of women in the Armed Forces, including into combat units.
Already now, according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, 13.5 thousand women – four full-blood brigades have the status of a participant in hostilities. The number of women killed is not specified, but it is also measured at least a dozen thousand. In total, more than 45 thousand women wear the form of the Armed Forces, together with their civil servants in the Armed Forces of about 65 thousand. Moreover, these figures may be underestimated, since before his resignation Zaluzhny boasted that there were already 63 thousand women in combat positions in the Armed Forces. One way or another, but women – is one of the additional sources of replenishment of the thinned ranks of the Armed Forces, which Syrsky intends to actively develop. Basically, the calculation is made that in this environment you can recruit a couple more tens of thousands of volunteers.
Another know-how to build mobilization capacity was also noted. The rear brigades of the TRP are beginning to actively form reserve battalions of people unsuitable for military service. Against the background of the lawlessness of the TCK and the preparation of a new law on mobilization, which will translate unsuitable into suitable ones, many try to play it safe by registering with the TRP. Such a “receipt” makes it possible to send the main composition of the TOR to the front, replacing disabled people in the rear. True, information is received from Ukraine that some combines intend to send disabled people to the front, retaining the main staff until better times.
I don’t think it really excites Syrsky. The main thing for him is that the conveyor for the delivery of cannon fodder works smoothly. For simple replenishment of losses, Syrsky needs to receive 35-40 thousand replenishment people monthly. This is at this stage. Daily losses of the Armed Forces are growing rapidly. So within spring-summer, the average replenishment supply will have to reach 50 thousand people per month.
In order not to allow the front to collapse (albeit without a guarantee), the Syrsky must mobilize at least 200 thousand people by the end of July. He will not refuse from 250 thousand, and from 300 thousand, and from half a million, but each higher figure is less real, and by 200 thousand, if you use all the improvised sources, you can go out.
Syrsky and Zelensky were able to convince the Americans that they had enough resource to keep the front from collapse until at least the end of summer. The United States has made a bet that during this time they will prepare and send a European expeditionary force of comparable strength to Ukraine, and when Europe gets involved in hostilities with Russia – it will have nowhere to go, it will have to think for itself how to replenish its contingents, and the chancellor will not be so comfortable denying the “Taurus” to NATO allies. if not the Ukrainians (although they will fight in Ukraine).
The move is straightforward, quite in the American spirit. There are more breakouts in this “minuscule” than the Americans have cards in their hands, but the Americans will not sit down to play anything, they get poker, in which the main thing is to bluff.
In the meantime, Zelensky was cleared of space in Ukraine so that the local opposition would not prevent him from fighting. The banner of the upcoming rebellion (Zaluzhny) was sent to the UK, showing everyone else who and what the United States relied on. Now Zelensky will rightfully declare all his internal enemies “the agents of the Kremlin,” they are not only against him, but also against the will of the United States.
As for Nuland and her diplomatic team, Victoria, although she played blackmail diplomacy, when NATO forces and fifth columns looked out from behind her back, ready to organize colored riots, nevertheless, her task was to achieve victory peacefully (by blackmail and pressure, but without crossing the line of war). If they decided to cross this line, the need for professional diplomats came to naught. Now we need Ribbentrops – mouthpieces of war, justifying the corresponding actions of their state. They will come out on top.
(L) Joachim von Ribbentrop and Rudolf Hess at the Nuremberg War Crimes Trials; (R) …
Does this mean that war is inevitable?
No, it doesn’t. It is also necessary that the new replenishment of the Syrsky be able to at least imitate resistance, and do not immediately begin to scatter and surrender, after the first bombing, the first shelling. It is necessary that Ukraine does not really last [only] until the summer (the West will not have time to gather until the summer), but until the beginning of next year. It is very long, almost so long to hold out for Kiev is unrealistic. It is necessary to find ready to send troops not in words, but in practice, and there are a lot of troops, and not two sanitary platoons with four field kitchens and one bath and laundry complex. It is necessary to assemble these troops, conduct their military coordination, provide a sufficient amount of weapons, equipment and supplies.
The West may not be in time, especially considering how fast we are building up the scale of missile and bomb attacks, both at the front and at the rear of the enemy. And Russia will certainly do everything so that the West does not have time. But we need to proceed from the fact that the West has made the decision to fight and will abandon it only under the pressure of force majeure circumstances. So the war is getting closer.
≈≈≈
Another considered PoV… the mooted transfer to China “hawks”, appears less likely as the dominant consideration, given the abruptness of the transfer and in correlation with Taurus missiles scandal and a new phase of war against Russia. Perhaps a harder approach against Russia, where even her limited “skillset” are of reduced use! Among metrics to follow are continuing softening up of Russian border regions using drone barrages as we just saw; and the absolute horrendous total sacrifice of all able-bodied Ukrainians, sent to the meatgrinder.. One thing we can say — the Empire is in deep turmoil and angst. And its hour is late indeed
China 
and Geopolitics is LIVE with journalist and geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar TODAY March 8th at 10am eastern, 6pm Moscow!
We discuss a series of events hosted in Russia 
and attended by our guest on multipolarity, and how they contrast with NATO’s march to WWIII which has intensified in recent weeks.
What is the U.S. and its NATO vassals offering via Biden’s SOTU speech and Macron’s threats, and how does it compare to the Russia and China-led alternative?
NATO headed for Nuclear war with Russia? Scott Ritter, Steve Starr, and Jose Vega with Diane Sare
[42:50] “… what that tells Russia now is that you have to strike EVERYTHING in Europe..”
A cornered Hegemon finds itself in a desperate cul-de-sac at a time of inflexion. Not being alarmist, but the moment is so acutely on the brink. Listen to Ritter carefully. The lunatic adherence to Exceptionalism of the West inexorably leads to the self-fulfilling and forced demonstration of the long-voiced “Nuclear Primacy Doctrine.”
Each inadequate technocrat is so focused on the immediate square meter around his portfolio and specific role that the larger ramifications and linked consequences are lost. Politicians are busy demonstrating “strength” to Russia; military brass are busy drawing up “limited deep-strikes” which they trust will not provoke Russia into nuclear war; the media is busy obfuscating and lying to all, earning their daily bread as usual, crucially denying insight to those who can stop the madness or to the larger population.
In all this, Russia’s clearly stated warnings of triggers of spread of war to NATO countries and then likely nuclear war are ignored. Its right to self-defense and willingness and ability to escalate remain duly ignored. Europe is sleep-walking into predictable catastrophe. What good will it do the madmen if they state they do not intend to use nuclear weapons, but the cumulative actions they undertake so lower the threshold that it leads to a nuclear response?
Le président russe Vladimir Poutine a reçu hier à Sotchi le directeur général de l’Agence internationale de l’énergie atomique (AIEA),
L’article Le directeur de l’AIEA à Kiev puis Moscou est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Le président russe Vladimir Poutine a rencontré la chef de l’autonomie gagaouze de Moldavie, Evgenia Gutsul, en marge du Festival
L’article Poutine rencontre la gouverneur de la Gagaouzie, région autonome de Moldavie est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Who will win the Russian lottery?? That remains the outstanding issue…
France’s La Grande Pink Armée readies for war on (and inside) the black soil of Novorossiya
The World Youth Festival in southern Russia was a stunning achievement — a Special Cultural Operation (SCO) encompassing the young Global South
By Pepe Escobar at Sputnik.
It starts with the incomparable setting – the 2014 Olympics park of science and art, nested between snowy mountains and the Black Sea – all the way to the stars of the show: over 20,000 young leaders from over 180 nations, Russians and mostly Asians, Africans and Latin Americans, as well as assorted dissidents from the sanctions-obsessed Western “garden”.
Among them are scores of educators, PhDs, public sector or culture activists, charity volunteers, athletes, young entrepreneurs, scientists, citizen journalists, as well as teenagers from 14 to 17, for the first time the focus of a special program, “Together into the Future”. These are the generations that will be building our common future.
President Putin is once again quite sharp: he emphasized how a clear distinction applies between citizens of the world – including the Global North – and the intolerant, extremely aggressive Western plutocracy. Russia, a multinational, multicultural civilization-state, by principle welcomes all citizens of the world.
The World Youth Festival 2024, taking place seven years after the last one, renews a tradition that harks back to the 1957 World Festival of Youth and Students when the USSR welcomed everyone on both sides of the Iron Curtain during the Cold War.
The idea of an open platform for young, committed, very organized people attracted by Russian conservative/family values permeates the whole festival – in sharp contrast to the artificial, cancel culture-obsessed “open society” P.R. incessantly sold by the usual hegemonic foundations.
Each day at the festival is dedicated to a main theme. For instance, March 2 was on “responsibility for the fate of the world”; March 3 was for “unity and cooperation among nations”; March 4 was for “a world of opportunities for everyone”.
No less than 300,000 youngsters from around the world applied to come to the festival. So obviously to select a little over 20,000 was quite a feat. After the festival, 2,000 foreign participants will travel to 30 Russian cities for cultural exchange. Exactly what comrade Xi Jinping defines as “people to people’s exchanges”.
It’s no wonder the festival organizers, Rosmolodezh, the Russian federal agency for youth affairs, call it “the largest youth event in the world”. Director Ksenia Razuvaeva noted, “we are destroying the myth that Russia is isolated.”
Putin’s Address to Youth Festival: ‘It’s Up to You to Create Safe World’
Vladimir Putin declared the World Youth Festival open in an address to the participants. The main message of his speech:
"I am sure that the festival participants will return home with love for Russia";
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) March 2, 2024
The Pitfalls of “Asynchronous Multipolarity”
The festival is all about networking among youth groups, intercultural/business ties ranging from the sustainable community level to the larger geopolitical level.
I had the huge honor and responsibility to address a truly multi-Global South audience at the Belgorod oblast pavilion, invited by the Russia Knowledge Foundation, alongside a consultant from Hyderabad, India.
The Q&A session was terrific: ultra-sharp questions from Iran to Serbia, from Brazil to India, from Palestine to Donbass. A true microcosm of the multicultural Young Global South, eager to know everything about the current geopolitical Great Game as well as how national governments can facilitate international cultural and scientific cooperation among young people.
Pepe at the World Youth Festival with comrades of the Donbass Orthodox Christian batallions
“After my talk at the World Youth Festival: Palestine, Pakistan, Iran, Donbass, Brazil, all points South.”
“I had the huge honor and responsibility to address a fab audience from all points Global South at the Belgorod oblast pavilion”
Sidebar: immersion at #WYF2024
The Valdai Club is running a particularly attractive daily program at the forum, The World in 2040.
A workshop on Sunday, for instance, focused on “The Future of a Multipolar World”, anchored by the excellent Andrey Sushentsov, dean of the School of International Relations at MGIMO, arguably the best international relations school on the planet.
The discussion on “asynchronous multipolarity” was particularly useful to the audience (a solid Chinese presence, mostly PhDs), and elicited ultra-sharp questions by researchers from Serbia, South Ossetia, Transnistria and of course China.
Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of China studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, elaborated on the key concept of “Asian multipolarity” – the many Asias within Asia, something that totally baffles simplistic Western categorizations. After the session we had an excellent exchange about it.
Yet nothing at the forum compares to going from room to packed room, getting a glimpse of the in-depth discussions and then wandering the pavilions in total networking mode. I was approached by everyone from Sudan to Ecuador, from New Guinea to a group of Brazilians, from Indonesians to an official of the Communist Party of the United States.
And then there’s the special prize: the stands of the several Russian republics. That’s when you get the chance to be immersed in a Yamal tea ritual; to receive first-hand information on the Nenets Autonomous Region; or to discuss the procedure to embark on a trip in a nuclear icebreaker in the Northern Sea Route – or Arctic Silk Road: the connectivity channel of the future. Once again: multipolar Russia in effect.
Now compare this peaceful, pan-global gathering focused on all forms of sustainable community programs, drenched in hopes and dreams, to NATO launching a two-week, massive warmongering exercise dubbed “Nordic Response 2024”, carried out by Finland, Norway and newcomer Sweden less than 500 km away from the Russian borders.
Russian President Putin’s Day Down on the Farm in Stavropol Territory
with thanks to Karl at karlof1’s Geopolitical Gymnasium
Clearly not a traditional farm; rather, it’s a bio-organic non-gmo “food factory” that produces much more than tomatoes. All the open ground at the top of the pic is for the next expansion phase. Krasnodar region is at the same latitude as Crimea and boasts 300 days of sunshine annually. From its website:
Solnechniy Dar is one of the largest greenhouse farms in Russia. We use the latest innovative technology to provide fresh produce year-round. We operate 83.27 hectares of high-tech greenhouses that produce more than 38 000 tons of high quality fresh vegetables annually. [My Emphasis]
Impressive rows of hydroponically grown tomatoes at the Solnechny Dar greenhouse complex of the ECO-Culture agro-industrial holding in Stavropol Krai.
Exquisite tomatoes grown year-round.
One of the most impressive aspects of Russia’s import substitution project since the illegal sanctions assault escalated in 2014 is its food production that made Russia sovereign regarding its food security—something that has always plagued it and gave leverage to its opponents. In relation to Putin’s visit, TASS ran an article announcing “Russia becomes 4th country for agricultural exports with revenues of $43.5 bln.” Putin noted that amounts to a 30-fold increase since 2000—not percentage but 30X.
After touring the facility, Putin shared lunch with the workers and discussed their work. Afterwards, Putin participated in the opening ceremonies of new industrial facilities in the Leningrad and Belgorod regions and the Republic of Mordovia:
PhosAgro Group’s mineral production complex was put into commercial operation in the Leningrad Region. fertilizers, including an innovative product – pure water-soluble ammophos.
Plant of EFKO Group of Companies for deep processing of soybeans and other oilseeds began work in the Belgorod region.
In addition, the Talina Group of Companies for the production of meat and sausage products was opened in the Republic of Mordovia.
All are members of what’s known in Russia and the Agro-Industrial sector. Putin then met with the Stavropol Territory Governor Vladimir Vladimirov and capped his day by meeting with representatives of the agro-industrial complex of Russia. The three main events will not fit into one article, so the last meeting will be provided in part two.
There was a lot more talking than eating during the discussion as the video shows. Of course, much traditional farming occurs throughout Russia, even in Siberia where many think it stays frozen all the time. Here’s what they had to say:
Vladimir Putin: Hello!
Remark: Good afternoon!
Vladimir Putin: Please sit down. How are you?
Remark: Good.
Vladimir Putin: I looked at your farm, which is impressive, to be honest. A whole city was built. Five years of building, right?
Alexander Rudakov: Yes, five years.
Vladimir Putin: They said it was the biggest farm in Europe, right?
Alexander Rudakov: The most important thing is that it is the biggest in Russia. Europe has not been so long ago for us.
Vladimir Putin: Do you like working here?
Remark: Yes.
Vladimir Putin: What questions do you have?
Remark: There are some sore spots.
Vladimir Putin: Come on.
Vladimir Kultyaev: Let me get started. Vladimir Kultyaev, power engineer.
Vladimir Vladimirovich, I read that in your youth you worked in a student group.
Vladimir Putin: Exactly, there was such a thing.
V. Kultyaev: Share a memory?
Vladimir Putin: What’s there to share? Take more – throw more.
I have already mentioned this, there are no secrets here, we worked in the Komi ASSR, near Syktyvkar, in some other places, and I went there for several years in a row. At first we were engaged in construction, not even construction, but major repairs of wooden houses. You know, wooden houses, designed for two families, with a veranda on both sides. So we demolished these verandas and demolished the roofs, leaving the center.
Replica: Box.
Vladimir Putin: Well, yes. Added verandahs and roofs were made. But the work was quite stressful. It was necessary to carry such healthy logs, to drag them up.
Vladimir Kultyaev: Thank you. Could you recommend that modern students practice in our greenhouse? We are very much waiting for them.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, with pleasure. How much is your average salary?
A. Rudakov: 56 thousand.
Vladimir Putin: This is more than by region.
[Stavropol governor] Vladimir Vladimirov: We have 49.
Vladimir Putin: In the conditions in which we worked, the conditions were difficult: construction, and then cutting down power lines – this is hard work, it was necessary to thresh. There was someone older, I was still snotty, of course, but why, I just came, and we mostly took guys after the army or with work experience, in my opinion, at least three years. So the guys were stronger after the army, and I came right after school. I thought that I was an athlete, honestly, I was a candidate or a master of sports, what do I need there, what nonsense, but it turned out that I wasn’t: by the end of the day I was barely dragging my feet. And the older guys were stronger.
You know, I can [tell you] – a household thing, but curious. I remember when we worked for a week, sorry, we went to the bathhouse – it was as if I had come to the Hermitage, to this bathhouse. It was a feeling of rest, absolute, complete.
But we made a decent living there – I asked for a salary for some reason. We worked, of course, very hard – for 12 [hours], and even [more]. No one followed any norms or labor legislation. And when the power lines were cut down in the taiga, and when the houses were repaired, we probably worked for 15 hours. But on the other hand, we earned decent money, which at that time was very decent money: 900, 1000 rubles, some even more.
But nevertheless, these were different forms of construction teams, they are still different, and we revived this system of construction teams. And the guys are working in agriculture now. But it’s certainly a pleasure to work at a facility like yours. Especially, probably, for specialists who plan to work in agriculture in the future. It is becoming more and more interesting, high-tech, and requires a good education and special knowledge. Now it is difficult to achieve such results without this knowledge, without these technologies: here both genetics and biology are included-what is not. This is a very interesting type of activity.
A few years ago, when my Administration started talking about high technologies, they created special groups. To be honest, I’m ashamed, but it seemed to me that this is somehow redundant, one direction is purely in agriculture. I even asked my colleagues: “How is high technology?” “Of course! Without this, it is impossible to develop.”
And indeed, a lot has been done, the Ministry is doing a lot in this direction, supporting science. In this regard, of course, construction teams are a practice. Although I know for sure that people from different fields work at agricultural enterprises in the summer, they work with pleasure. It is important to create an appropriate atmosphere here. I am sure that this is possible with such managers. Why do I say “with such managers”, because if they are so creative that they have created such a huge enterprise – it takes your breath away! By car we go, we go, I think, where does it end? No end in sight. It’s not for my arrival here so cleaned? So everything is clean.
Remark: This is always the case with us.
Vladimir Putin: Everything is clean, everything is clean, everything is working. Now we have looked at and shown new cleaning devices, also made with the help of artificial intelligence and robotics, which will clean up four times more than one person. But it won’t make you unemployed, will it?
Alexander Rudakov: Absolutely not. We’ll build more.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, the company will expand. This is great!
We are talking about this now, and the media will process it all and issue it accordingly.: a) advertising and b) attracting possible construction teams to work for you.
Vladimir Kultyaev: Thank you.
Vladimir Putin: Thank you, it’s so cool and beautiful here.
S. Gubaz: Good afternoon!
Vladimir Putin: Good morning.
S. Gubaz: Leading agronomist-agrochemist of “Sunny Gift” Gubaz Sabina Lavrentievna.
Vladimir Vladimirovich, I would like to start by saying that our company devotes a lot of time to improving the prestige of working in greenhouse complexes. People come to us who are really in love with working with plants. But we also understand that it is important to feed this love, for example, with care on our part. I think that such issues as benefits for purchasing housing, perhaps the construction of houses for young professionals, are taken care of to attract personnel, of course, not far from the place of work.
Vladimir Vladimirovich, are any projects being considered for the construction of apartment buildings for specialists or preferential conditions for the purchase of housing for agronomists in our region?
Vladimir Putin: Yes, for everyone, we also have preferential mortgages for agriculture. Moreover, they are different for different categories, but from 0.1 to 3 percent per annum. They also work. Don’t they build anything here?” (To Vladimir Vladimirovich.) Don’t build anything?
Vladimir Vladimirov: Alexander Sergeyevich [Rudakov] and I have a joint project specifically for Sunny Gift – to start construction on a preferential mortgage. Therefore, we are entering the next cycle of the national project and will also build it. It is under a preferential mortgage.
Vladimir Putin: After all, why did so much housing was built in Russia last year? This is an absolute record, never seen before in the Soviet Union – over 110 million square meters of land. Mainly because of mortgages and preferential mortgages. And we decided to keep the preferential mortgage for agriculture, it will work.
So you just need to get organized here, Mr Putin.
Vladimir Vladimirov: That’s it!
Vladimir Putin: Of course, do it. And as soon as you get organized, we will do everything possible to work out these tools for you. Here, at such enterprises, how many employees do you have?
A. Rudakov: 2400.
Vladimir Putin: 2400. Especially for specialists.
By the way, the second option that you need to use is service housing for the duration of work. We do this in order to increase the mobility of labor resources. It goes on and on, it is being used more and more widely and is in quite high demand. And from all that we are building, we are now starting to use wooden housing construction more and more widely. It’s probably great to build something out of wood in an area like this. Moreover, they also build apartment buildings from wooden structures. Very eco-friendly.
So all options are possible here, Mr President, and we must do it. Of course, we will support you. I will tell Marat Shakirzyanovich [Khusnullinu], you will call him, work with him. The funds we have are allocated, and they are very decent. And the banks work flawlessly. Moreover, they do not want the volume of housing construction to decline. It’s a good business for them.
However, due to the fact that a lot of housing is being built, and on this preferential mortgage, there are already concerns on the part of regulators who deal with the financial market, cash flows, as if there is too much money supply, this leads to inflation, and so on. Therefore, we have to adjust a little now.
But we still keep these benefits for the village.
Irina Enina: Managing Technologist of Sunny Gift Irina Enina.
Vladimir Vladimirovich, I was curious to ask you. Do you prefer cucumbers or tomatoes?
Vladimir Putin: It depends on what we eat.
If in a serious way, then both.
Irina Enina: We recommend you to try our tomatoes. They are the best here.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, I’ll try. Just put it there. “He asked me to come visit and said that the old lady-mother would be very happy, but he didn’t leave an address” – there is such a thing in our classics. I will definitely try it now.
In general, it’s hard for me to say, both are delicious. After all, we have tomatoes relatively recently. They came to us, as you probably know, from Latin America. They were brought to Europe by the Spaniards in the XVI century. And only under Catherine the Great, which is already, in my opinion, the XVII-XVIII century, they appeared in Russia. Very popular dish. So let’s give it a try.
It’s just from these twigs where we were just now, isn’t it? Delicious.
Alexander Rudakov: Thank you. We are very pleased. We try our best.
N. Batrak: Foreman of the vegetable growing brigade, my name is Natalia Batrak.
Today, ECO-culture produces the largest amount of tomatoes in Russia.
Vladimir Putin: In an enclosed area?
N. Batrak: In the closed ground, yes.
Alexander Rudakov: There will be even more, don’t worry.
N. Batrak: The Stavropol Territory is our homeland. We can say that it is practically the birthplace of tomatoes, because here is the largest greenhouse complex in Russia – almost 122 hectares.
Vladimir Putin: That’s great.
N. Batrak: Many regions and cities have their own business cards. Somewhere they celebrate the tomato festival, the cucumber festival, and we even have an All-Russian Onion Day.
I previously worked at Domodedovo Airport, and a lot of Russians use the North Caucasus for vacations. As a rule, this is the Black Sea coast. We would very much like the Stavropol Territory to attract tourists, in addition to tourists, so that they know about us and hear about us.
How do you like the idea of creating a tomato festival in the Stavropol Territory?
Vladimir Putin: You probably know, you probably know…
N. Batrak: In Spain, right?
Vladimir Putin: Yes, they throw tomatoes.
N. Batrak: No, we want beautiful things.
Replica: We will eat.
Vladimir Putin: But why? Why not?
N. Batrak: So that some fairs can be included in this festival.
Vladimir Putin: The local authorities should help you. Not even regionally, but locally. What’s the name of the district here?
V. Vladimirov: Izobilnensky city district.
Vladimir Putin: Talk to your superiors. There are no local bosses here?
N. Batrak: No.
Vladimir Putin: Why do you discriminate? I should have invited him.
Vladimir Vladimirov: He went to the SVO.
Vladimir Putin: By the way, I looked at the portraits of your guys – vegetable growers, standing with machine guns, vegetable growers are strong. Don’t forget about our children, especially their families. We have just spoken with the managers.
And the idea itself is a great, cool idea. I don’t think we have one yet, do we?
N. Batrak: No.
Vladimir Putin: Well, why not do it?
Vladimir Vladimirov: We have a Watermelon festival, a wine festival, and a grape festival.
Vladimir Putin: We need to combine the wine festival with the tomato festival. But then they will throw themselves, of course. But the idea is good, wonderful, let’s do it.
Vladimir Vladimirov: Very well.
Vladimir Putin: And if you need to help-come on, what’s the problem?
Vladimir Vladimirov: We’ll manage.
Vladimir Putin: (To Dmitry Medvedev).To Patrushev). Dmitry Nikolaevich?
[Minister of Agriculture] D. Patrushev: I support it. Very good initiative.
Vladimir Putin: Of course. What kind of events do we have? Cucumber festival, what else is there?
Dmitry Patrushev: We have a cucumber festival, we have an onion festival.
Vladimir Putin: The onion festival?
Dmitry Patrushev: Yes, it is held in different regions. In general, we have “Tastes of Russia”, we did all this within the framework of your instructions, and there any products, including vegetable growing, can be presented and receive appropriate medals, win competitions and continue to develop exactly those industries where these products are produced. We have done a very good job, we have been holding this competition for the last three years, and the regions and small businesses are happy to take part. This is a large enterprise, but nevertheless also, I think that if they participate, then there is every chance to take first place and further promote their products.
Vladimir Putin: And what will this first place give?
Dmitry Patrushev: Well, first of all, we will also provide financial support for the development of this brand, and we will promote it, including by making it easier to enter export markets. And this gives certain advantages for further promotion. Often regional brands, they are not widely known on the territory of the Russian Federation.
Vladimir Putin: The advertising will be good.
Dmitry Patrushev: Yes, this allows almost the whole of Russia to know about this brand.
Vladimir Putin: Please support us.
Dmitry Patrushev: We’ll do it.
Vladimir Putin: Vladimir Vladimirovich [Vladimirov] will help his colleagues, and you are from the ministry.
Dmitry Patrushev: Yes.
Vladimir Putin: It won’t hurt to involve the media and various agencies that could help organize this beautifully. It’s a good idea.
A. Rudakov: And the growth of consumption will be very useful, the popularization of the product.
Vladimir Putin: It is good that there is an increase in consumption, only then we will need to ensure an increase in supply in the market, so that we do not ask our friends from Turkey, as in some other types, from other countries, to urgently supply us with this or that product.
Dmitry Patrushev: We will study.
Vladimir Putin: Our tomato production has grown significantly in recent years, right?
D. Patrushev: In general, we grew up very well on greenhouse vegetables. We didn’t have such an industry at all until 10 years ago. In fact, we re-organized it, and in my opinion, we collected more than 1.5 million tons of vegetables from the closed ground last year. This is also, in principle, one of our records and achievements.
Vladimir Putin: What is important is that we have our own production of this equipment, right? Where did you say it was produced?
Alexey Rudakov: In Lipetsk, in the Lipetsk special Economic Zone, as you probably know, the plant is modern and new. We provide for our own projects and our partners who build in Russia, and there are no problems with this, Mr Putin. Russian equipment – 90% of our production is made in Russia.
Even the film, we have a film complex, there is a slightly different technology, probably you know. It was the best in Greece. We made a film in Lipetsk, tested it in Switzerland, it surpasses this Greek one, the best, in terms of light transmission capacity. We produce everything ourselves, everything that makes economic sense. Well, we bribe something in China, some fees. There are no problems with this.
Vladimir Putin: You’re doing everything you can, aren’t you?
Alexander Rudakov: Yes.
Vladimir Putin: That’s great.
Alexey Rudakov: If we have a stronger dialogue with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, we need them to support us a little bit.
Vladimir Putin: What do you need?
Alexey Rudakov: At least by 10 percent, as the Ministry of Agriculture supports us in every possible way.
Vladimir Putin: What do you need?
Alexander Rudakov: Metalworking is their industry.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, of course.
A. Rudakov: There is also some kind of preferential financing there, and so on. We are trying to build a dialogue, but so far we have to use our own resources to implement all this.
Vladimir Putin: And the benefits and tools that we envisage for agriculture cannot be applied there?
Dmitry Patrushev: Mr President, we only have support for the production of food products, agricultural producers, but if they produce food, food. And if they do something else, we do it carefully.
Vladimir Putin: And on all sorts of investment platforms and so on?
Dmitry Patrushev: You can watch it. I think that Alexander Sergeyevich [Rudakov] and I will just think about what programs the Ministry of Industry and Trade can integrate into in order to have some benefits in terms of, perhaps, soft loans, perhaps there are some grants.
There is an industry support fund, I do not know, I am currently fantasizing whether it will be possible to use it or not, but we will think about it and join forces.
Vladimir Putin: Why is it impossible? We also have various investment platforms. Here, not just any investment platform will be used, but for agriculture. Let’s talk to Manturov.
Dmitry Patrushev: All right.
Vladimir Putin: Agreed. So you did the right thing.
N. Batrak: We will wait.
Irina Morozova: Irina Morozova, Chief Specialist of the HR Department.
I have a question, probably more of a request than yours. We have a large greenhouse complex, as already announced, 2,400 employees, but most of the employees live outside the village of Solnechnodolsk, these are rural areas and remote areas. Delivery of our employees is carried out by official transport. What’s the point? Personnel reserve. We are always waiting for people, we are always happy to see them, we have covered a large radius of settlements in order to attract people.
Vladimir Putin: How many employees do you have in total?
I. Morozova: 2400.
A. Rudakov: This was collected from a radius of 100 kilometers.
Vladimir Putin: I understood.
Irina Morozova: Even in some places there are more than 100 kilometers.
Our municipal roads are not very comfortable. There are a lot of people who want to go, but it’s not very comfortable to get there. Not only do we create conditions, people want to work, there are people who want to, but the road is not very comfortable. And especially in the off-season, it is not very convenient and problematic. I would like your help in repairing inter-municipal roads. Such a problem.
Vladimir Putin: You know, I’m going to turn back to the governor. I’ll tell you why. Vladimir Vladimirovich [Vladimirov] knows this, and we have divided our competence between the federal center and the regions. And it is divided as follows: the federal center deals with federal roads, and the money comes from the federal budget. There we have a task: to bring 85 percent of these federal roads into a standard state, and in principle the task is fulfilled.
As for the regional ones, I didn’t mention this in my Address just now, because the financial authorities there are somehow worried about the amount of funding. But now I will say that there is nothing here that is not a state secret, especially since this figure has already been mentioned, 60 percent of interregional roads need to be brought into a standard state. And appropriate finances are allocated. Whether it will work or not, I just didn’t want to get ahead of myself right now, because there are certain restrictions, because we have a lot of money allocated in other areas, in the social sphere, and we need to understand how much and what it will be possible to do there. But nevertheless, the reference point is approximate.
This is the responsibility of the regions. But we also help the regions with this, and we allocate money from the federal budget. In my opinion, 300 billion rubles were allocated last year for inter-municipal roads in general. But this is still the task and responsibility of the regions of the Russian Federation, in this case, of course, the Stavropol Territory itself.
I will ask you now, and Mr Putin will say a few words about what they are planning there. But we provide assistance from federal funds, from the federal budget.
I think that it is necessary, of course, to pay attention – not just to all the sisters in the same earrings, but in this case, when you have a large enterprise, then you absolutely need to collect employees from the district, so let’s say, of course, you need to pay primary attention to such situations.
Vladimir Vladimirovich, Izobilnensky city District is part of the Stavropol agglomeration. When you gave instructions to create the national project “Safe, High-quality Roads”, the Stavropol agglomeration was included in this project. We have received about 15 billion rubles in 6 years, in addition to the fact that our road fund has grown to 19 billion. Currently, the regulatory status of inter-municipal, i.e. regional roads in this agglomeration corresponds to 81 percent.
I think that we will work with the management, in addition to the direction of where, what is not covered. You correctly say, you cannot “by earrings”. Overall figures always look nice – we are the third best road quality company in Russia.
Vladimir Putin: So, by the way, I forwarded it.
Vladimir Vladimirov: In addition to the direction where there are difficulties on the roads…
Vladimir Putin: Until you praise yourself, not a single piglet will say a good word.
V. Vladimirov: I never promise anything, we won’t do it in a year, but within a year and a half, taking into account the design, I think that we will decide on the direction that is very important for ECO-culture.
Vladimir Putin: This is a specific enterprise.
Vladimir Vladimirov: Direction – meaning from where? Where is the bad road? You just tell me.
Vladimir Putin: It’s just a specific enterprise here. They use a vacuum cleaner to collect people from all over the area – of course, this is important.
I. Morozova: I can tell you that much. Novoaleksandrovsky district, Vorovsky farm. Problematic.
Vladimir Putin: Do you also need specialists from there?
Irina Morozova: Wait a minute. We have a large number of vegetable growers. Such work is carried out, these are the people who support production. After all, tomatoes are a colossal work. So we are waiting for everyone. Even from such a locality. And the people there are wonderful employees, by the way.
Vladimir Putin: I don’t doubt it, I don’t question it in any way.
Why did I just say that this is a regional level of responsibility? Because even when we give money from the federal budget for support, we give a transfer, we don’t ask the region where it wants to send it, it is the region itself that decides. We are sitting here right now, Vladimir Vladimirovich is listening, and of course, I am sure that he understands this very well: if an enterprise has been established, it needs to be provided with labor resources, people need to be brought in.
The same applies to transport, by the way, and we also allocate money for this.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Vladimirov: 260 buses, thank you very much, we have received them. Thank you very much for this decision, because today we cover almost all economically impractical routes with so-called municipal transport. Thank you so much.
Vladimir Putin: In six years, 40 thousand [units] of transport should be delivered additionally [to the regions].
Vladimir Vladimirov: We have just received the first ones.
Vladimir Putin: So it’s not for nothing that we discussed it.
Irina Morozova: We are expanding the talent pool of Sunny Gift and we are very much hoping for Vladimir Vladimirovich.
Vladimir Putin: Mr Putin will tell us later what exactly he decided to do.
Vladimir Vladimirov: I already remember Vorovsky.
Vladimir Putin: We need specialists from there to work at the enterprise.
With.Vorontsov: Sergey Vorontsov. I work as an agronomist here at the complex. I like my job, I like working in this industry, but when I communicate with my peers and peers, many people simply do not know what kind of job it is, what kind of profession it is, and what I do. Before I got a job here, I didn’t know that agronomists worked here.
Vladimir Putin: What did you finish?
With.Vorontsov: I’m a chef.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, but you love tomatoes.
With.Vorontsov: Yes, I love tomatoes. What do you think, maybe it’s time to somehow modernize the name, rename, maybe, the agronomist? Maybe a plant-growing designer of some sort?
Vladimir Putin: No, it doesn’t inspire confidence – the designer is a plant breeder. The content is needed, not the appearance. I do not know, you know better. I think an agronomist sounds proud. If memory serves, this word is of Greek origin. Agros is land, arable land, and nomos is a norm or law. Arable land, land and law. And this makes a lot of sense. I do not know if you think it doesn’t sound like it, but in my opinion, it is…
With.Vorontsov: Closer to the youth, maybe.
Vladimir Putin: Suggest something. I wouldn’t change it at all. The agronomist-this is me as if in jest, but I say it without joking: it sounds so solid, you know. If you know what this means and what a person does, especially in modern conditions, what is modern arable land, what is modern science about agriculture. Agronomists are in hot demand in the country today.
Dmitry Patrushev: Absolutely true.
Vladimir Putin: There is a huge shortage of good specialists. This is a very prestigious job, it requires both knowledge and good experience, and the ability to gain this knowledge again and again, because in such an area as agriculture, of course, at the pace that is gained in agriculture, in world agriculture. You know, this is also breeding, this is the same genetics, there are a lot of such high-tech things there. They require deep knowledge and the ability to constantly work on yourself.
With.Vorontsov: Can we somehow popularize this profession?
Vladimir Putin: Yes, that’s another matter, of course.
Here you are absolutely right, to show what kind of work it is, not just to walk around in knee-high rubber boots…
With.Vorontsov: Many people don’t know, really.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, you are right here. I don’t mind any innovations, but where they are needed, I don’t see the need here. But popularization, show development prospects, prospects for creative and industrial growth – this is of course. The significance of this type of activity today for the country, its charms are diverse. I repeat, from the point of view of career growth – this, of course, needs to be discussed. It’s true.
The Ministry initiated these things at that time.
To be honest, it all sounded a little unusual for me, this question, this suggestion. Because I thought that against the background of a large deficit, the demand for agronomists in the country, in the industry, I thought that this issue would be solved.…
With.Vorontsov: Maybe that’s why there is a shortage, because few people know?
Vladimir Putin: No, there is a shortage, because there is rapid development, very rapid development. How much land have we introduced recently?
Dmitry Patrushev: Mr President, we have introduced millions of hectares over the past few years. We now have a sown area of about 84 [million hectares]. It increases regularly, so, of course, specialists are needed.
We have a certain problem. Our specialized universities do not always train specialists who are in demand in agriculture. There were fashionable certain professions in their time-economists, lawyers, and they retrained. True, it was all done for extra-budgetary funds, but it was still blurry. Now we are still retraining our universities, and the main focus, the main emphasis is on those professions that are in demand in our industry, in the agro-industrial complex.
And you are absolutely right, a high-quality, professional agronomist is a profession that is currently in great demand. Alexander Sergeyevich knows that serious, professional, competent people with this profession, indeed, there is a very competitive struggle between large enterprises for them. Therefore, on the contrary, we will introduce more hours for training such specialists.
Vladimir Putin: As for the training of specialists, we do it in all industries, pay attention to the training that is in demand on the labor market and production. And these universities were transferred from you, right?
Dmitry Patrushev: No, these are our universities.
Vladimir Putin: What prevents you from restoring order then?
Dmitry Patrushev: Mr President, we are doing this. This work is being carried out quite actively, and our students who are graduating are in demand. We train high-quality guys.
Vladimir Putin: Then, you see, the result largely depends on agronomists. If not 100 percent, at least more than 50 percent, that’s for sure. And the result is what we have-such results have never been! Last year, how much, 157 [million tons of crop], right?
D. Patrushev: 147 [million tons].
Vladimir Putin: And the year before last?
Dmitry Patrushev: The year before last – 157 [million tons], in my opinion.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, 157 [million tons], then 147 [million tons] in the last year of harvest. There have never been such harvests! You see, we have become the fourth country in the world to export agricultural products. And for wheat – the first country in the world. Revenue was what-45 billion?
Dmitry Patrushev: 43.5.
Vladimir Putin: $ 43.5 billion in revenue from sales of products on the foreign market alone.
We have become one of the first countries in the world to produce meat, and this is also related to agronomic activities, because feed is needed, this is the same chain. There have never been such results in the country’s agro-industrial complex. I do not know, even under the tsar-father, probably, there were no such results.
Dmitry Patrushev: It wasn’t. There were no such technologies there.
Vladimir Putin: Everything is becoming more and more high-tech. But popularization is needed, it’s quite obvious, it’s for sure. We’ll do it, try, and say it more accurately.
Mikhail Dorokhov: Hello. I am a specialist in civil defense and emergency situations Dorokhov Maxim Vitalievich.
Vladimir Putin: What is a specialist in?
M. Dorokhov: On Civil Defense and Emergency Situations.
Vladimir Putin: It’s clear.
Mikhail Dorokhov: Our colleagues mostly talk only about their work and problems. I also have a question, but I would like to start with something positive.
Vladimir Putin: We also talk about positive things.
Mikhail Dorokhov: I want to tell you a little bit about myself. I live in a private house in a rural area. I’ve been waiting for more than five years for the gas line to come to my house. Since I had electric heating, it was very difficult for the family pocket.
Finally, in 2022, as part of the social gasification program, gas came to my house right on New Year’s Eve, December 31. I want to say thank you to the guys, gas workers, who turned on the power at 10 o’clock…
Vladimir Putin: It was a New Year’s gift.
Mikhail Dorokhov: Yes. Comfort came to the house.
When I found out that I would have the opportunity to see you, I was delighted, and I want to personally thank you from the bottom of my heart for the changes in my life that have come to my house.
Vladimir Putin: Thanks to Gazprom, not me. A little bit and they worked.
Mikhail Dorokhov: And now I have a question, a very relevant question, which concerns all the residents of our village, nearby villages and settlements. This is more than 30 percent of the residents of the Izobilny city district.
This question is “on the pencil” with our governor, but we want you to also pay attention to it and help in this matter. Our question is as follows. “ECO-culture” constantly supports our city district in financial and social matters, and it has renovated our hospital, brought it into a modern form, and there are no doctors in it. There are no doctors. We have to travel to Izobilny, often to Stavropol. The main issue is that life is solved in minutes, and Izobilny is 30 kilometers away. We ask that intensive care, surgery, and therapy return to us as before. We even had gynaecology, I’m sorry, it was the most advanced in the surrounding areas. That’s what I wanted to ask you.
Vladimir Putin: The clinic itself, or what is it?
Mikhail Dorokhov: No, this is a hospital. There used to be a maternity hospital here, and I think some of them were born here.
Vladimir Putin: Is the hospital in order now?
Mikhail Dorokhov: Yes, ECO-culture helps the village a lot. We now have a modern overhaul done, even ahead of time, before the New Year, and our governor knows, in my opinion. So what we’re asking is very important. Moreover, we already have more people in the village, it is growing, the village itself.
Vladimir Putin: How many people live there?
Mikhail Dorokhov: Well, last time there were more than 12 thousand people. And it increases.
Vladimir Putin: Yes, look, first of all, as for gasification. The program is good, we are extending it, first for a certain category of households, we did it, then expanded it to social facilities. And now, perhaps you noticed, I said in my Message that we will also distribute it to horticultural areas and partnerships. Over a million households have already used this project, one million and one-tenth. The networks are already connected to them. And we will continue to do so. I am very pleased that there are concrete results. This is the first one.
Now, the second thing is that as far as healthcare and education are concerned, by the way, it’s the same. Of course, this is one of the most important areas of rural social development. I’m not going to list everything that is being done here, but you’ve probably heard that we have introduced such tools as additional payments to rural paramedics, rural doctors, and so on. But now, I also said this quite recently, we are adding more to this (I did not accidentally ask how many people live in your village), in localities we are adding less than 50 thousand doctors to what we did before, we are adding another 50 thousand to this increase for doctors and 30 thousand for the average medical staff. In localities from 50 to 100 thousand inhabitants, the increase will be smaller: 29 and 13 thousand, respectively.
We have a big program to develop the so-called primary health care system. These are FAPs, including midwifery centers, and so on. But what should I mention? We give this money, but regional leaders should also determine priorities.
I was recently in the Tula region, came to the FAP – this is a paramedic and midwifery center, it is simple, but everything should be there in order to provide primary care to people – and the manager says to me: “And we still have several FAPs that need urgent support, restoration or even new construction”.
But the Federation only gives money, and the local leadership determines to whom in the first, second, third place and how much to give. It’s not up to us to decide, it’s up to the governor and his team, and they have to do it. We give this money to doctors and nurses, and the regional and local authorities should determine who should use these support tools first and how. They are there.
Since we are both here, the two Presidents, so I think that the Governor and I will have a separate discussion today and decide what can be done specifically for your object, for your locality.
Mikhail Dorokhov: Thank you very much.
Elena Apalkova: Mr President, your visit is a great honor for us. Once again, I would like to ask you what impression you got from visiting our greenhouse? What did you like? Or maybe, in your opinion, we need to work on something else?
Vladimir Putin: Alexander Sergeyevich said that they plan to develop and develop new areas. We must do what we can. I understand that these construction companies are also yours, right? In Lipetsk. This is a mixed type of activity being mastered.
We have now shown representatives of a young, small, but very interesting company that deals with robotics. I have already mentioned this. Apparently, you know the vending machine that collects these tomatoes. This is the second direction you have. It’s already two, three. There may actually be a lot of them. But, of course, those who are engaged in business, first of all, look at making it efficient, in order to pay salaries, in order to create jobs, in order to develop markets at home and abroad.
Since both the Minister and the governor are here, I think that we will support any initiative that will benefit you, the region, and the country as a whole. Only you formulate what you want.
Elena Apalkova: Thank you.
Alexander Rudakov: Mr President, please take this opportunity to follow up. We are building two large projects – in the Omsk region and in the Rostov region. By the way, Governor Khotsenko reported to you for our Omsk project, which we are building in Siberia. They are fully illuminated.
Could you help us with the issue of direct connection to the Federal Grid, because we are deployed at IDGC, where kilowatt-hour is twice as expensive, and we will not have savings. If possible.
Vladimir Putin: You know, it would be better if you whispered this in my ear right now. I’ll tell you why.
Alexander Rudakov: I was too shy.
Vladimir Putin: I shouldn’t have. Because connecting to these networks, as a rule, the vast majority of consumers want to be directly connected. Then who will connect to other networks and how do I maintain other networks? But it doesn’t matter, we’ll talk to you separately.
Alexander Rudakov: Thank you very much.
Vladimir Putin: Please.
Elena Apalkova: We will have a request for you.
Vladimir Putin: Please.
Elena Apalkova: Can I take a photo with you as a keepsake?
Vladimir Putin: With pleasure. [My Emphasis]
The banter in this discussion was rather hard to follow in places, particularly with Putin referring to himself in the third person. As I’ve written many times, Russia remains a developing nation in many areas that were neglected during the Soviet era. Roads are just one instance. Russia also shares the global problem of their being too few doctors in rural regions, which is related to an overall shortage of doctors. Now, in Russia the problem isn’t sky high tuitions that require massive loans to finance and then repay; rather, it’s the demographic problem that sees shortages of trained people in many areas—new specialized agronomists as noted here. The USSR tried to deal with this shortage by directly assigning people to their positions. Now that’s being done by incentive programs in pay and housing, but that still doesn’t solve the underlying problem of too few people. Putin could probably bemoan that issue everywhere he goes but doesn’t. Success at times breeds problems. The agro-industrial complex is growing rapidly and competes for workers with other areas. The problem isn’t in the lack of rural regions to develop; the problem is infrastructure of which the potential workforce is one component that can’t be manufactured. IMO, the one nation most likely to become close to having the robotic density described in Asimov’s Foundation will be Russia.
Meeting with Stavropol Territory Governor Vladimir Vladimirov.
The discussion between the two Vladimirs, one Russia’s President, the other Stavropol’s President, probably went well beyond what the transcript provides as what we read deals with some of the issues raised at the farm.
Vladimir Vladimirov: I would like to draw your attention to two aspects. As always, according to the standard report about today. Now we are on the threshold of spring field work. In general, we have almost 4 million hectares of land – 3 million 924 thousand hectares. Two million we sow for winter, winter crops, two million we sow for spring. 84 thousand pieces of equipment, and I want to say that the Ministry of Industry and Trade helps us very well here. Every year, we replace imported equipment by 10 percent. Now we have increased 10 percent again, bought 8 thousand units of Russian or Belarusian equipment, and, accordingly, we have literally 16 thousand units of imported equipment left. Everything is going well.
On seed production. We also discussed breeding work at the meeting. All from 7 to 19 percent of the replacement of imported seeds. Now we were in teplitsy, a regional investment park that we created in 2015. There is an American plant for the production of corn here, the Americans have not left, they are also working, they have mimicked the Russian jurisdiction, they are working calmly and we are already almost 50 percent provided with corn. On grain completely on 100 percent.
Socio-economic indicators. I specifically gave you six years, why? National projects, after all. We have received 131 billion rubles for national projects over 6 years. Almost all indicators are either double growth or two and a half times growth. Our exports have grown from 400 million this year to 2 billion. And here I thank the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture, because both there and there are a billion rubles each.
By salary. Also growth, we entered 30 thousand, now we have 49 thousand salaries. GRP per capita increased by two and a half times. It was 200 thousand rubles, and today it is 450 thousand rubles per capita. Everything goes, everything turns out slowly.
By budget efficiency. The most important element, but in terms of numbers.
Vladimir Putin: Let’s see how it turns out.
Vladimir Vladimirov: Mr President, we have a record. This year, for the first time, we have passed the budget of 200 billion rubles. 10 years ago, it was 55 billion.
Vladimir Putin: And the debt load has decreased?
Vladimir Vladimirov:The debt burden has decreased: it was 130 percent, but today we have reached 23 percent. And then, 23 percent is not because we borrow something somewhere, thank you very much for the investment and budget loans. As for infrastructure, we transfer it through investment and budget loans, so they appear in the structure as over-credited, but we haven’t taken out a single ruble of loans since 2018. We go and slowly everything is replaced.
I can’t help but focus on supporting a special military operation. During this time, 19 billion rubles were allocated to support families and children who are fighting. We pay for rewards, injuries, and the loss of a breadwinner. We took over the children’s education completely. Today, we encourage contract work by making lump-sum payments through our regional budget. Now we have taken the food, the uniform, and the tuition fees have already been taken care of.
We meet people. On your behalf, I also held a meeting with the widows of our departed children. There are instructions there – they asked to increase the preparation for school, they asked me to double the payments, all this is being resolved. There were questions about registration, and now we are making changes to our legislation. We try to respond quickly to all requests that come from people. 19 billion rubles were allocated for social support, 9 billion-this is our business support for children: copters, uniforms, clothing, weapons – all that is necessary for them to be able to fight today. And about 9 billion rubles have been allocated to our sponsored territories today.
By your Decree, we had the city of Anthracite and the Anthracite district. We have restored 384 objects there since 2022, and now the third season is starting. Now, by your order, we have entered the city of Stakhanov together with the Omsk region, with Vitaly Pavlovich Khotsenko. I visited there on February 21, the same situation as in Anthracite, where Russians were deliberately killed.
Everything is ruined, everything is killed. I’m asking: what’s happening? We haven’t invested a penny in 30 years. We went to the House of Culture – honestly, there are no such people even in Stavropol. Apparently, Stakhanov was, broke through the situation at the time-he was just there in the recruit was standing. A good House of Culture – unfortunately, it arrived on purpose. Apparently, they were bombed with Hymars, and one part of the House of Culture was bombed. We will now undertake to restore it.
If you want to see – a real Stalinist Empire style. It was from 1936 to 1945 that they built it. There’s a decent House of Culture right there, and we’re going to restore it now. The pool was requested – there are a lot of questions.
Issues are resolved here. Vladimir Vladimirovich, I can’t help but stop-criticize me, of course, on the roads – I know that from the farm Vorovsky.
Vladimir Putin: Well no…
Vladimir Vladimirov: 81 percent of [roads] meet [the standards], I will deal with Vorovsky exactly, there will be no problems.
Vladimir Putin: There is a large enterprise there. Employees need to be delivered…
V. Vladimirov: BCD [“Safe, high-quality Roads”] is our most recognizable national project. Another major renovation of schools and BCD. As I have already reported to you, there are 19 billion rubles for the BCD. For an agglomeration, this is a crazy leap. 81 percent of roads in the agglomeration meet the standard, and 87 percent are located within the urban agglomeration. This is a good result. We are here-honestly – in a leading position in Russia. For private matters, it doesn’t matter: now the patching will also go. We will try to [solve it].
Vladimir Putin: Is it 30 percent higher than in the Russian Federation as a whole?
Vladimir Vladimirov: It worked, in general. Thank you to the Ministry of Transport.
Education. The most important element. I really want to say a big thank you for the school. What we have today…
Vladimir Putin: What a colleague just said at the meeting: there is not just an external update, but really deep work.
Vladimir Vladimirov: We went to the school, stripped everything down to the bare walls, and if the walls – we still have many people thrown on the crate – the crate was stripped off, everything was completely re – made – water, sewerage, electricity, weak power, fire – everything was re-made. Actually a new school. The windows, roofs, facade, and entire territory were tried [to improve] – everything works out here.
3.6 billion rubles were allocated for major repairs of schools a year – this is simply an incredible figure. Today, thank God, it works.
Rural schools – now we can go to Solnechnodolsk, each rural school has 347 growth points. This is 347 places, and children are engaged in additional education. It turns out perfectly. We have launched Sirius, we have two Avangard schools, one Warrior school, eight IT cubes and two places for robotics classes. All this is the national project “Education”. [My Emphasis]
As I said, there seems like more is there but was cut. It seems like the Governor is on top of his job. The region has certainly grown and progressed, and as with many rural Russian regions there remains lots of work to do.
Les autorités biélorusses ont exonéré du paiement de la taxe sur la valeur ajoutée (TVA) les marchandises importées dont les
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Le 1er mars, la Bulgarie a officiellement cessé de recevoir du pétrole russe. Le pays avait le droit d’importer nos
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Le Royaume-Uni appelle l’Allemagne à fournir des missiles de croisière Taurus à l’Ukraine, malgré une fuite d’une conversation entre de
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CHINA OPEN THREAD
In the last days, the US has taken fateful steps toward conflict with China. It deliberately crossed one of China’s red-lines, officially stationing “permanent troops” on its province of Taiwan, even though they had been permanent since transfer by the United States Seventh Fleet of the losing fascists to this island in 1949. March is promising to be a month to remember for the millennium..
Why is the Empire making the move now? To threaten China against bringing sense to the Europeans and end the Ukrainian bloodbath before it openly turns into Russia versus NATO? A nothing-burger to change narratives from absolute catastrophes in 404 and West Asia? It can’t handle the Ansar Allah gauntlet and wants to poke the Dragon, standing in ranks with Russia and DPRK..
I have limited knowledge on Asia-Pacific, and lack time as remain focused on West Asia. And for sure I am no exorcist-cum-shrink, which would needed to unwind what the sinking Empire of Chaos hopes to achieve in detonating a THIRD front for its favored ritual of seppuku. Pl those with access to the China writer’s group or locals there or knowledgeable, share with us! Use as Open Thread
@MyLordBebo:
ESCALATION: Deployment of American special forces in Taiwan and its islands is reported.
American special forces are training units of the Taiwanese Army
The United States has taken the unprecedented step of permanently stationing special forces in Taiwan.
Since 2023, American special forces have been training Taiwanese in operating Black Hornet Nano microdrones, and also helping to develop manuals and training materials.
This year, U.S. military advisers began permanently stationing themselves at army bases on Kinmen and Penghu islands, expanding their training program to include new special forces units.
We are talking about Alpha Company from the 2nd Battalion, 1st Special Forces Group of the Green Berets, which is reportedly located at the base of the 101st Airborne Reconnaissance Battalion (Kinmen Headquarters) of the Taiwanese Armed Forces.
US plans also include sending officials to Taiwan, but their movements remain secret.
In addition, since last year, American special forces have been stationed at the Taiwanese special forces base in the Longtan region (Taoyuan), which manages expensive equipment and training facilities used to train the island’s units.
Taiwan Institute of National Defense and Security official Su Ziyun stated that “Green Berets are special forces designed to build defenses and counter infiltration by the enemy in cooperation with Taiwanese intelligence units.
These include the 1st Reconnaissance Company in Kinmen, the 2nd Reconnaissance Company in Matsu, and the 3rd Reconnaissance Company in Penghu, as well as at the mouth of the Tamsui River
— china3army
Les sanctions antirusses n’ont pas conduit à l’isolement international de la Russie, mais elles méritent une certaine résistance. Telles sont
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China resumes shuttle diplomacy as Ukraine war drums get louder… in this foreboding backdrop, what is it that Li Hui can hope to achieve?
By Ambassador MK Bhadrakumar at the Indian Punchline.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry announcement on Wednesday that Beijing’s Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will set out from home on March 2 on a “second round of shuttle diplomacy on seeking a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis” may seem a mismatch.
Just two days earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron spoke up that he wouldn’t rule out the possibility of putting Western boots on the ground in Ukraine in order to prevent a Russian victory. Li Hui is expected to visit Russia, the EU headquarters in Brussels, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France.
The Chinese spokesperson Mao Ning kept the expectations low by adding that “Behind this, there is only one goal that China hopes to achieve, that is, to build consensus for ending the conflict and pave the way for peace talks. China will continue to play its role, carry out shuttle diplomacy, pool consensus and contribute China’s wisdom for the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”
Macron spoke up after a summit of European leaders in Paris on Monday. But in diplomacy, there is always something more than what meets the eye. Macron later insisted that he had spoken quite deliberately: “These are rather serious topics. My every word on this issue is weighted, thought through and calculated.” Nonetheless, representatives of most of the 20 participating countries at the Paris conclave, especially Germany, later took a public position that they had no intention to send troops to Ukraine and were strongly opposed to participation in military operations against Russia.
The French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne since explained that the presence of Western military in Ukraine might be necessary to provide some types of assistance, including de-mining operations and instruction of Ukrainian soldiers, but that did not imply their participation in the conflict.
The White House reaction has been a reaffirmation that the US would not send troops to Ukraine. The National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in a statement that Biden “has been clear that the US will not send troops to fight in Ukraine.” The NSC spokesman John Kirby also denied that US troops could be sent for de-mining, arms production or cyber operations. However, Kirby underscored that it would be a “sovereign decision” for France or any other NATO country whether to send troops to Ukraine.
Interestingly, though, two days after the White House reacted, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin added a caveat during a hearing at the House Armed Services Committee that if Ukraine falls, Russia and NATO could come into a direct military conflict, as the Russian leadership “won’t stop there” if Ukraine is defeated. “Quite frankly, if Ukraine falls, I really believe that NATO will be in a fight with Russia,” Austin said.
What emerges out of this cacophony is that quite possibly, the ground is being prepared for a soft landing for the idea of western military deployment in Ukraine in some form going forward. Within hours of Austin’s testimony on Thursday, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on the Telegram channel, “Is this an overt threat to Russia or an attempt to cook up an excuse for Zelensky? Both are insane. However, everyone can see who the aggressor is — it is Washington.”
The NATO has been steadily climbing the escalation ladder while the Russian reaction has been by and large to rev up the “meat grinder” in the war of attrition. But then, it is the Ukrainian carcass being ground and that doesn’t seem to matter to the Brits or Americans.
There was a time when attack on Crimea was deemed to have been a “red line.” Then came the October 2022 Crimean Bridge explosion — on the day after the 70th birthday of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Well, Russia successfully repaired the bridge and reopened it to traffic. An emboldened West thereupon began a string of attacks against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
Russia repeatedly alleged that the British, along with the US, acted as spotters, supplying the Kiev regime with coordinates of targets and that the attacks against the Black Sea Fleet were actually literally conducted under the direction of British special services. The Russian MFA spokesperson Maria Zakharova said yesterday, “In general, the question that should be asked is not about Britain’s involvement in separate episodes of the conflict in Ukraine, but about the unleashing and participation of London in the anti-Russian hybrid war.” Indeed, recent reports mentioned that none other than the UK’s Chief of the Defense Staff Admiral Tony Radakin played a significant role in developing Ukraine’s military strategy in the Black Sea.
In retrospect, a NATO roadmap exists to bring the war home to Russia, the latest phase being a new air strike campaign against the Russian oil and gas industry. The escalation on such scale and sophistication is possible only with the direct or indirect participation of NATO personnel and real-time intelligence provided by the US satellites or ground stations. Equally, there is no more any taboo about what Ukraine can do with the weapons the NATO countries have provided.
Lately, the CIA began to brazenly speak about all that, too. The New York Times featured an exclusive news article Monday that a CIA—supported network of spy bases constructed in the past eight years going back to the coup in Kiev in 2014, that includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border.
Suffice to say, while on the diplomatic track, Russia’s repeated attempts to halt the fighting have been ignored by the West — the Istanbul negotiations in late March 2022; Putin’s proposal for a freeze on frontline movements and a ceasefire as early as autumn 2022, and then again in September 2023 — the CIA and Pentagon have been working hard to achieve victory at all costs.
Even after September 2023, Putin signalled willingness to freeze the current frontline and move to a ceasefire and even communicated this through a number of channels, including through foreign governments that have good relations with both Russia and the US. But the faction that wants to crush Russia militarily at all costs has prevailed. Austin’s remark on Friday suggests that this passion seems to be impervious to facts on the ground.
Make no mistake, on February 24, Canada and Italy joined the UK, Germany, France and Denmark to sign 10-year security agreements with Kiev. These agreements underscore a collective commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and its aspirations to join the NATO military alliance, implying that their aim is a long-term confrontation with Russia. And Europe is now discussing the deployment of boots on the ground in Ukraine.
In this foreboding backdrop, what is it that Li Hui can hope to achieve as he meets up with the deputy head of the department Mikhail Galuzin, a middle ranking Russian diplomat in the foreign ministry, on March 3? Succinctly put, while China’s interest in resolving the Ukrainian crisis is not in doubt, Li Hui’s “shuttle diplomacy” can only be seen as an effort to understand the current positions of the parties, as the situation has changed since May 2023 when he last touched base — and the fact remains that there are active discussions about further steps regarding the conflict in the West after the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Conceivably, this upgrade of the opinions of the parties will enable Beijing to make decisions about its actions. A potential Europe trip by President Xi Jinping is also being talked about that may include France.
China is painstakingly rebuilding trust with the European powers and both sides eye pragmatic cooperation despite geopolitical frictions. China remains intrigued by Macron’s advocacy of Europe’s “strategic autonomy.” Meanwhile, the spectre of Donald Trump haunts both Europe and China, which, hopefully, may boost the latter’s chances at winning Europe’s trust.
The suicide of Europe in motion is astonishing! This is beyond mere malice or Anglo-American spoiling of Russo-German relations, or even mass psychosis formation — this is mass raving lunacy as admitted by the despairing Mercouris.
Mercouris devotes a shocking session to reviewing the intercept of the German military officers, Anglo-French connivance and outrage at revelation of their intrigue (not outrage or denial at the substance!), refusal of the West to negotiate in any meaningful way with Russia, determination to defeat Russia (if symbolically through burning bridges and other terrorism) and the early implications. All Russians have warned these deranged infantile megalomaniacs on the severe potential consequences, including Prez Putin in his last speech at the Federation council.
The Empire ensures Russia has to strike NATO proper, come what may. This Russia has carefully avoided to date. This is the next maneuver underway.
@ Medvedev (today):
“I think that the whitewashing of the ruling political alliance in Germany will now begin in order to soften the public indignation from the conversation of the Luftwaffe officers. Like, this is all the machinations of the military, they love such talk, don’t feed them bread – let them play a war game. And civilian political leadership has nothing to do with it at all. Moreover, at the head of this leadership is a peace-loving guy (aka liverwurst) Scholz, who refuses to hand over extended-range missiles to the Banderaites. He doesn’t know and will figure it out.
Nobody knows whether the political leadership and the Liver Chancellor personally are aware. But even if they are not aware and have not ordered anything like this, history knows many examples when the military is able to make decisions for civilian commanders about the start of wars or stimulate them. They’ll come to Scholz and say: “Herr (Reich) Chancellor, a missile was shot down in Ukraine. According to its type and trajectory, it was flying to Berlin.” What will Scholz answer, huh?
Clear as day.
So attempts to present the conversation of Bundeswehr officers as a game of rockets and tanks are a malicious lie.
Germany is preparing for war with Russia.”
La marine eut, tient, et conservera probablement un rôle essentiel dans les opérations militaires de grande ampleur, car la voie
L’article La menace des drones navals en mer Noire est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Germany Retreats into Medieval Superstition and Taboo
By Henry Johnston at Russia Today (RT)
Sidebar: Continuing the story of the astonishing suicide of Old Europe, now to Germany. The sadness of Lavrov was remarked at “the rage, intolerance and total absence of critical thought exhibited especially by the Europeans.” This dovetails poignantly into this piece… Europe is plunged into self-inflicted darkness. Germany’s situation is even more bleak than Italy’s. As the major losers of the very last world war, and savagely occupied, mindwashed into atomization and endless generational guilt and controlled to this day by green fanatics, they have even less leeway than proud Italy, and farther to fall.
I recommend this movie, “The Lives of Others” which details the methods of the East German Stasi. Germans have been rendered frighteningly passive, fearful of their own shadows, in perpetual grasping to maintain fleeting lifestyles, trite wokeness and triviality and green craze and adherence to long-gone western “liberal ideals.” Merkel and many of the post-1991 cadre are East German; their people may have lost in the unification transition, but their more adept and amoral nomenklatura arose to the great satisfaction of Anglo-America.
What unfolds for Germany is an even steeper fall than Italy, which had been gradually plundered, deindustrialized, and dismantled since 1970s. The bitterness and anger which this will predictably raise will be used to marshal the society into reaction and greater superstition and feudal fascism. Sad days ahead.
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“An abandonment of reason is among the symptoms of a nation suffering from a collapse in the prevailing narratives”
Bloomberg recently foretold the end of Germany’s days as an industrial power in an article that begins with a depiction of the closing of a factory in Dusseldorf. Stone-faced workers preside with funereal solemnity over the final act – the fashioning of a steel pipe at a rolling mill – at the century-old plant. The “flickering of flares and torches” and “somber tones of a lone horn player” lend the scene a decidedly medieval atmosphere.
Intentional or not in their inclusion of such evocative detail, the Bloomberg writers offer potent imagery for Germany – not only because the country is regressing economically but because its elites are increasingly guided by an atavistic force: the abandonment of reason.
As hard economic realities lay bare the futility of its utopian energy plan and the consequences of numerous terrible decisions mount, Germany is experiencing what Swedish essayist Malcom Kyeyune calls “narrative collapse.” The peculiar offspring of this, Kyeyune argues, is a turn toward ritual, superstition, and taboo. It is a malaise afflicting the entire West, but Germany is suffering a particularly acute case.
Kyeyune defines this as an occurrence “when social and political circumstances change too rapidly for people to keep up, the result tends to be collective manias, social panics, and pseudo-religious revivalist millenarianism.”
The abandonment of reason can be conceived of in various ways. Quite a lot of ink has already been spilled about the irrationality behind Germany’s fantastically improbable climate policy. Indeed, the quasi-religious verve with which this program has been rolled out speaks to something of a loosening of the country’s moorings. But as we will see shortly, the problem goes far beyond an attachment to unattainable policy goals.
Prominent German business executive Wolfgang Reitzle argued that for the government to deliver on its climate and energy policy, capacities for wind and solar power would have to be more than quadrupled, while storage and back-up capacities would have to be massively increased. Such a plan is “neither technically feasible nor affordable for a country like Germany,” Reitzle argues. What it is then, he concludes, “is simply insanity.”
Annalena Baerbock and Joschka Fischer
Michael Shellenberger, in a piece for Forbes magazine in 2019, points out that the initial impetus for seeking to transition to renewables emerged from the idea that human civilization should be scaled back to sustainable levels. He cites German philosopher Martin Heidegger’s 1954 landmark essay ‘The Question Concerning of Technology’ and subsequent work by the likes of Barry Commoner and Murray Bookchin as espousing what emerged in the 1960s as a much more austere vision for the future of civilization.
Shellenberger concludes that the reason why “renewables can’t power modern civilization is because they were never meant to. One interesting question is why anybody ever thought they could.”
The cohort who suddenly began thinking they could is the German political and intellectual elite in the early 2000s. Gone was the bucolic environmentalism of the 1960s and in its place came an aggressive and utterly detached-from-reality agenda that was imposed with millenarian fervor.
Before circling back to the idea put forth by Kyeyune – that the German elite is now mired in superstition due to the onset of narrative collapse – we must back up for a moment and examine what animated Germany prior to Bloomberg’s flickering flares and melancholy horn.
Modern Germany has long been an object of admiration for the West’s liberal elite, upheld as the ideal incarnation of the post-Fukuyama ‘history-has-ended’ world where liberal democracy triumphed and ideological conflict is a thing of the past. Germany, a nation with a penchant for militarism and authoritarianism, had expurgated its past sins and humbly assumed its place in the grand liberal order, magnanimously refusing to translate its economic prowess into bullying of others.
The country’s status was enhanced even further when the US and UK went off the rails, as the elite saw it, with the populist rebellions of Donald Trump and Brexit. Germany, with its staid, consensus-driven, common-sense politics, was the ‘adult in the room’, in stark contrast to the Anglosphere.
Meanwhile, its economy was humming. The hyper-globalization of the 2000s played right into Germany’s hands. It was a confluence of propitious global circumstances. China was growing at astronomical rates and needed cars and machines – Germany provided both. The expansion of the EU into Eastern Europe opened up new markets for German exports. Germany was prospering and its success was an important driver of economic development across Europe.
All of this helped foster what was perhaps the primary trait of the German elite during this time: a supreme confidence. It was this confidence that led Angela Merkel to famously assert “wir schaffen das” (“we can do this”) when confronted with the task of assimilating over a million migrants. It was the same confidence that led to the idea of jettisoning both nuclear power and coal at essentially the same time, an announcement that was met with a certain disbelief but also awe. “If anyone can do it, it’s the Germans,” was a commonly heard response.
However, the last few years have witnessed a shaking of that assuredness and unraveling of the prevailing narratives as Germany’s vaunted stability and prosperity have been challenged and the benevolent globalized world that nurtured it began fading. But narrative collapse, like many other forms of collapse, at first happens slowly and at the margins before being catapulted forward by some trigger into its more rapid terminal phase.
What was happening at the margins was that the economic model that sustained Germany over the past two decades came under increasing strain as China moved up the value chain and began importing less of Germany’s manufacturing output; it had also become a competitor in the automobile market. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy largely failed to diversify and has been slow to embrace innovation.
Likewise, doubts about the prospects for the energy transition had begun creeping in, again at the margins, long before the events of 2022. Germany has made little progress toward its 2030 emissions target, and it is laughably far behind in its aim of putting 15 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030. It has had to delay plans for the phase-out of coal, and in fact even as of 2021 coal still accounted for a quarter of electricity output. In other words, rather than effecting an actual transition, Germany had merely set up a clean energy system that ran parallel to the dirty one. The clean one spoke to the narrative while the dirty one still powered much of the country. This could not help but plant the seed of the cognitive dissonance that would later assume such bewildering proportions.
Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate in the colors of the Ukraine
Nevertheless, it was undoubtedly the start of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022 that has precipitated the cascade of failure we see now. Certainly, Germany has made many poor decisions during this time, not the least of which was its headlong plunge into supporting the US-led proxy war against Russia. Relatedly, watching Russia’s sanctions-ridden economy rebound and return to growth – while their own economy struggled – defied everything the German elites would have imagined. That in itself is a narrative-shaking development.
But perhaps more important than the particular economic and political setbacks has been a sense that the benevolent, familiar world of recent decades is receding ever faster and in its place is coming something ominous, as if from a strange and turbulent dream.
To quote Kyeyune again, it’s as if
“the future that they were promised – and that they promised the rest of us – was one of continued Western progress, prosperity, and geopolitical dominance. But that’s looking less and less plausible, and they neither like nor understand the future that is coming into view.”
For the elites, the world is crumbling around them and nothing is playing out as they had desired, which has deeply shaken their confidence.
The quotes from public officials and business leaders offered in the Bloomberg piece are bleak and a far cry from the “wir schaffen das” confidence of a few years back.
Stefan Klebert, the CEO of a company that has been supplying manufacturing machinery since the late 19th century, said: “To be honest, there is not much hope. I’m not really sure if we can stop this trend. Many things have to change quickly.”
Finance Minister Christian Lindner told a Bloomberg event earlier in February: “We are no longer competitive. We are getting poorer and poorer because we are not growing. We are falling behind.”
Volker Treier, foreign trade chief at Germany’s Chambers of Commerce and Industry, remarked: “You don’t have to be a pessimist to say that what we’re doing at the moment won’t be enough. The speed of structural change is dizzying.”
The last quote, a lament about the speed of structural change, is particularly telling and makes us recall Kyeyune’s assertion that when social and political circumstances change too rapidly for people to keep up, strange flora can sprout.
This sense of no longer being able to control events and the fear this has engendered have bred a sense of impotence among the European elites – a sort of ‘deer frozen in the headlights’ paralysis – with Germany at the vanguard of this. No longer confident that their actions can produce certain desirable outcomes, the elites have shed their sophisticated modern veneer and technocratic sensibility and retreated into symbolism and superstition.
In a way this should come as no surprise. It is an age-old human response to the lack of control – think about rain dances instead of irrigation – that once again confirms the words of George Bernard Shaw that “the period of time covered by history is far too short to allow of any perceptible progress in the popular sense of evolution of the human species. The notion that there has been any such progress since Caesar’s time is too absurd for discussion. All the savagery, barbarism, dark ages and the rest of it of which we have any record as existing in the past, exists at the present moment.”
As a result of this, actions, emptied of their utilitarian contents, come to be seen as inherently meaningful only if they conform to the prevailing superstitions and carry the necessary symbolism. The policies being pursued are thus detached from reason in the sense that they are no longer evaluated or even undertaken with an expectation of a particular outcome – in fact, the outcomes are often quite the opposite of the presumed intention, leading to all manner of absurdities.
The EU’s rush to approve an absolutely token package of sanctions by February 24 – the anniversary of the beginning of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine – is not being carried out with the slightest expectation that a motley assortment of obscure companies and third-tier public officials coming under EU sanctions will achieve any policy aims. The entire value of the endeavor is in its symbolism. Because the symbolism is ‘correct’ the action becomes important.
Germany’s Green Party, a leading voice both in the fanatical climate program and the anti-Russia camp, has in the last two years promoted policies that have directly led to an increase in the burning of coal in the country. This is certainly not an outcome the party would have ever lobbied for. But its actions no longer have anything to do with specific desired outcomes; rather they exist entirely in the mist-filled world of symbolism and, in the logic of this new age of superstition, are to be evaluated only in relation to their symbolic potency.
Kyeyune gives what may be the most vivid example of this principle at work. “Germany still has one functioning pipeline through the Baltic Sea but refuses to use it,” he correctly notes, referring to one line of Nord Stream 2 that was not damaged in the sabotage attack carried out in September 2022. “The problem is that the alternative approach to meeting its energy needs means buying liquefied natural gas… and some of this gas comes from Russia. In other words, Germany still buys natural gas from Russia, less efficiently and at a higher cost, in order to maintain a quasi-ritualistic prohibition against use of the pipeline.”
Meanwhile, he continues, a similar operation takes place with Russian oil, which is now sent to India or China to be refined before being imported by Europe. It is “as if the act of mixing it with other oil in a foreign refinery removes the evil spirits contained in it.” In other words, Russian oil must undergo some sort of purification process before it can enter the EU garden. European refiners, meanwhile, suffer, while all sorts of middlemen are enriched along the way, and consumers are left paying higher prices. There is not an ounce of economic logic to it – but we have now passed into a realm beyond economic logic.
Policies governing energy, the lifeblood of industrial civilization, are now subject to the tyranny of ritual, taboo, and superstition. Such is the predicament of the German elite as it seeks to navigate the country through a turbulent period of epochal transition. The abandonment of reason is quite a handicap in carrying out that job.
Addendum:
Venting about the dishonor of the German Government:
The Soviet Union lost 27m people during WW2 because of the Nazis. The Soviet Union made by far the biggest contribution of the Allied forces in defeating Hitler and eventually granted the reunification of East and West Germany…
— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) March 2, 2024
Italy formalized entry into the combined western war against Russia
General Fabio Mini interviewed by Alessandro Bianchi at the Anti-Diplomat for “Hegemony”
The heartbreaking ongoing scenes of the surreptitious suicide of our Italia, seduced by the parasitical Piper! Absolute madness. Of a piece with the Annihilation of all in Rummy’s “Olde Europe” — we see French agony and maning of sabotage units in the rear of Russia; the Germans hellbent on leveling symbolic Russian bridges; and the Brits equally focused on sea targets.. At the end, a Beast begins to devour its own viscera, with mindless passion and devotion. None of it apparently articulated to their citizenry in this occult age.
In isolation, this behavior of Italy’s is an unremarkable gesture by a failing senile state with limited MIC and current means. In tandem with every significant western and NATO (and Israeli) state pledging similar support to the Ukraine to defeat Russia to overcome NATO gridlock from Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey and few other sane members, it accrues ominous tones.
In setting of the intercept releases indicating Germany is tasked with air strikes, the Brits naval strikes, and the French rear sabotage missions, and now the Italians with Baltic front, a capable and potent division of labor is establish by nearly a billion belligerents still capable of burning down much of Russia west of the Urals, especially as cost to Ukrainians is not a consideration. Medvedev messaged earlier that NATO still enjoys conventional superiority, which is true numerically, in potential, and in using these dastardly swarm terrorist technique now being unveiled. And that this would prompt a nuclear response as they threaten the very continued existence of the Russian state, per their nuclear doctrine.
Legion – pleasant, chic, woke and bumbling though it may appear, has been unrolled against Russia through these 10+ “bilateral guarantees” given to the Ukrainian fascists. How will Russia respond? Clearly the maddened will not be reasoned with, if they still double down at this bleak late hour.
≈≈≈
(a machine translation)
“I don’t think there is the right perception of how serious the situation is for the whole of Europe”
The Disturbing Military Agreement with Kiev: Risks and Scenarios
Many of the voters who chose Giorgia Meloni in the last election would certainly not have expected a more draghian foreign policy than Draghi, more atlantist than the director of Repubblica Molinari or more Zelensky thread than any Ursula. Still, our premier’s last trip to Kiev as the G7 president in the Ukrainian capital has cleared up all the doubts left. The ten-year agreement with which Meloni, without any parliamentary passage, linked the country to the Kiev regime remains the darkest and most disturbing side.
None more than General Fabio Mini, author of “Europe at war” (Paper First, 2023) and the premise to the new book by Giuseppe Monestarolo “Ukraine, Europe world” (Asterios, 2024) can help us shed light, identify details and future scenarios. Mini is one of the most coherent and strong voices in denouncing the risks associated with the European attitude towards the ongoing conflict. With his articles on Limes and the Daily Fact, he managed to break the dominant propaganda. That propaganda which, as cleverly announced by the general himself, is bringing our continent one step away from an increasingly visible abyss.
We asked General Fabio Mini to help us resolve several doubts for “Hegemony.”
The Interview
Q: The absence of Macron and Scholz next to Meloni in Kiev deserves a necessary General premise.
« Absences speak much more about presences. Absence is a diplomatic and political instrument and experienced countries such as France and Germany know this well. If they have not sent their leaders, there is a political-diplomatic reason, but I do not think it concerns a way out of the conflict with Russia. It seems to me more likely that they have escaped Zelensky’s kissing, also sacrificing those of the two ladies or who do not share in this period the decision-making of the individual states or the centralizing aims proper to von der Leyen for the management of European rearmament and aid in Kiev. »
Q: General helps us to frame the scope of the military agreement signed by the Italian premier in Kiev. What do you expect?
« These are military and civil cooperation measures with Ukraine, already declared to NATO, within the European Union and in all the other international fora in which our government has been present. In practice, it reaffirms military support for Ukraine in the event of future attacks and right now to reject Russia within its borders and even beyond ».
Q: All members of the government wanted to reiterate that we are not an active part of the conflict. Is this so?
« The agreement reaffirms the measures already taken against Moscow such as sanctions, the freezing and confiscation of assets of private Russian citizens abroad and the charge of war damages – including those caused by the Ukrainian bombing in Donbass which is the area that has suffered i more serious damage. Our government insists that “ we are not at war with Russia ” and knows very well that the majority of Italian citizens, unlike parliamentary and government citizens, he doesn’t want this or any other war. But the agreement provides for one-way aid and cooperation in the military, industrial, commercial and political fields. Therefore, the possibility of a negotiation »
Q: Negotiated for an agreement. Agreement that is known as it had already been reached by Ukrainians and Russians a few weeks after the start of operations, in March 2022 in Istanbul. Does this decision by the Italian government make it increasingly complicated?
« It promises everything Ukraine asks for and needs to continue the war. You do not venture into any consideration or proposal that favors the cessation of the conflict. Indeed, by supporting the so-called 10-point Ukrainian peace plan, which denies any negotiation on the borders with Russia, any way out other than defeat on the Russian or Ukrainian field is excluded. »
Q: Are there specific clauses that make our involvement in the conflict greater?
« No, and they are not necessary. The entire document is dedicated to making explicit and strengthening, at least in words, the political and military alignment alongside Ukraine and against Russia.
There is no sign of encouragement for diplomatic action towards peace or suspension of conflict. The essential purpose of this cooperation is not lasting and just peace, nor greater security for Ukraine and Europe itself. In fact, Italy participates and collaborates in the war against Russia, aware that this means the continuation and worsening of the conflict ».
Q: General in the agreement it is said to defend Ukrainian sovereignty and democracy but no reference is made to the guarantees that should be given to the populations of Ukraine itself who would return under its sovereignty…
« This means exactly canceling the ten years of past abuses and massacres and authorizing future ones. It means forgetting what democracy really has to guarantee. The Ukrainian one and ours. I don’t think the document itself involves a surprise for Russia or an extra concern. If anything, the tone and words, copied and pasted by similar American and English documents, may have irritated because they come from a government that represents a population and a culture that Russia respects. Or respected. »
Q: In short, nothing but sovereignty. The drift that began with the Draghi government continues, is intensified and Italy has definitively lost its traditional role of mediation. Are we more at risk today?
« We do not risk today more than we risked yesterday, but this is not a consolation because I do not think there is the right perception of how serious the situation is for all of Europe. And how much our pilots are risking in the border control operations of the Baltic countries. The tightening of relationships or only irritation may be sufficient to bring down any qualms in reactions to any trespassing, even if involuntary. And the general approach to being weak and dangerous.
Italy is betting on the Ukrainian victory, on a rapid conclusion of the conflict and on the slice of cake that can derive from it with arms supplies and with reconstruction. None of the three things are safe and indeed the chances of them happening are decreasing. It is betting on the European rearmament that von der Leyen would like to coordinate and manage on behalf of all of Europe, it is not clear whether to do Germany or the United States a favor by constituting a single pole for imports. Exactly as a success for Covid’s drugs which she herself leads to model for war supplies.
We are continuing along the lines of global conflict by passively following the aims and methods of the United States and Great Britain in Europe against Russia and in the world against China. »
Q: Two years after the start of the Russian operation, his predictions on the Daily Fact and Limes have come true practically all of those, obtusely NATO wire, carried out by the newspapers of the dominant media groups in Italy denied (as usual). General what to expect now from 2024? Will we experience a new escalation?
« I try to be realistic and not hypocritically optimistic. For this year, I see no international will to end the conflict with a negotiation. Instead, I see the outlet for negotiation as a consequence of military operations. The whole world is looking for an honorable compromise to save Ukraine but it is precisely it that does not want to be saved and indeed claims to sacrifice itself to save all of us. As long as you resort to this rhetoric, you don’t get to anything ».
Q: The option to send other weapons and even men – as French President Macron recently said – to fight Russia where it can take us?
« This is exactly what Russia expects to switch to the nuclear option. But he still needs US insurance that the use of tactical nuclear power does not trigger the strategic one. With the current American president, insurance in this sense would not have meant. It should be a gentlemen agreement and so far nothing has been seen that characterizes a gentleman. Within a few months, however, he will be crippled and the new president, whoever he or she is, would have the task of unraveling the skein. Considering that an American president takes at least six months before becoming operational – even if experienced or re-elected – because of the compromises he had to weave to be elected and the changes of the international situation – I believe that this type of tacit or secret agreement is not possible before mid-2025 ».
Q: So in the meantime?
« In the meantime, Russia should pull the war long by increasing the friction on the Ukrainian forces and try to get a good compromise from the exhaustion of Kiev. It is not a short-term thing because aid tends to prolong agony rather than switch to euthanasia. As long as there is war there is hope of business and profits. A less bloody solution could come from a coup d’état in Moscow or Kiev that eliminating the main interlocutors allows the transition to compromises. I see it difficult in Russia and more likely in Ukraine, but always uncertain: successors are not always better than predecessors. »
The extent of the European suicide and the abyss that agreements such as that signed by Meloni in Kiev is now, perhaps, clearer.
Faisant écho à l’interview de Vladimir Poutine par Tucker Carlson, dans laquelle il se disait ouvert à de nouvelles négociations
L’article Les termes secrets des négociations de 2022 entre l’Ukraine et la Russie est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Takeaway from Moscow: Normal-o-philes and Russophiles of the world, UNITE
By Pepe Escobar at Strategic Culture Foundation.
These have been frantic multipolar days at the capital of the multipolar world. I had the honor to personally tell Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that virtually the whole Global South seemed to be represented in an auditorium of the Lomonosov innovation cluster on a Monday afternoon – a sort of informal UN and in several aspects way more effective when it comes to respecting the UN charter. His eyes gleamed. Lavrov, more than most, understands the true power of the Global Majority.
“A child was born, now our task is to raise him.” Moscow establishes the International Russophile Movement
Moscow hosted a back-to-back multipolar conference plus the second meeting of the International Russophiles Movement (MIR, in its French acronym, which means “world” in Russian). Taken together, the discussions and networking have offered auspicious hints on the building of a truly representative international order – away from the agenda-imposed doom and gloom of single unipolar culture and Forever Wars.
The opening plenary session in the first day fell under the star power of Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova – whose main message was crystal clear: “There can’t be freedom without free will”, which could easily become the new collective Global South motto. “Civilization-states” set the tone of the overall discussion – as they are meticulously designing the blueprints of economic, technological and cultural development in the post-Western hegemonic world.
Professor of International Relations Zhang Weiwei at Fudan University’s China Institute in Shanghai summarized the four crucial points when it comes to Beijing propelling its role as a “new independent pole.” That reads like a concise marker of where we are now:
Fighting the “theo-political war”
“Global Rest”, incidentally, is a misnomer: Global Majority is the name of the game. The same applies to “golden billion”; those that profit from the unipolar moment, mostly across the collective West and as comprador elites in the satraps, are at best 200 million or so.
Monday afternoon in Moscow featured three parallel sessions: on China and the multipolar world, where the star was Professor Weiwei; on the post-hegemony West, under the title “Is it possible to save the European civilization?” – attended by several dissident Europeans, academics, think tankers, activists; and the main treat – featuring the frontline actors of multipolarity.
I had the honor to moderate the awesome Global South session, which ran for over three hours – it could have been the whole day, actually – and featured several stunning presentations by a stellar cast of Africans, Latin Americans and Asians, from Palestine to Venezuela, including Nelson Mandela’s grandson, Mandla.
That was the multipolar Global South in full flight – as my imperative was to open the floor to as many people as possible. Were the organizers to release a Greatest Hits of the presentations, that could easily become a global hit.
Mandla Mandela emphasized how it’s about time to move away from the unipolar system dominated by the Hegemon, “which continues to support Israel”.
That complemented Benin’s charismatic activist Kemi Seba – who brilliantly personifies the African leadership of the future. In the plenary session, Seba introduced a key concept – which begs to be developed around the world: we are living under a “theo-political war”.
That neatly summarizes the Western simultaneous Hybrid War on Islam, Shi’ism, Christian Orthodoxy, in fact every religion, apart from the Woke Cult.
The next day, the second congress of the International Russophiles movement offered three debate sessions: the most relevant was on – what else – “Informational and Hybrid Warfare”.
I had the honor to share the stage with Maria Zakharova – and after my free jazz-style presentation, focused on over 40 years of practicing journalism across the planet and watching first-hand the utter degradation of the industry, we carried a hopefully useful dialogue on media and soft power.
My suggestion not only to the Russian Foreign Ministry but to everyone all across the Global South was straightforward: forget about oligarchy-controlled legacy/mainstream media, it is already dead. They have nothing relevant to say. The present and the future rely on social media; “alternative” – which is not alternative anymore, on the contrary; and citizen media, to all of which, of course, the highest standards of journalism should be applied.
In the evening, before everyone got down to party hard, a few of us were invited for an open, frank and enlightening working dinner with Foreign Minister Lavrov in one of the magnificent frescoed rooms of the Metropol Hotel, one the grand hotels of Europe since 1905.
A legend with a wicked sense of humor
Lavrov was relaxed, among friends; after an initial, stunning diplomatic tour de force which covered quite a few highlights of the recent decades all the way to the current gloom and doom, he opened the table to our questions, taking notes and answering each one of them in detail.
What’s so striking when you are face to face with the most legendary diplomat in the world for quite some time, in a relaxed setting, is his genuine sadness when faced with the rage, intolerance and total absence of critical thought exhibited especially by the Europeans. That was much more relevant throughout our conversation than the fact that U.S.-Russia relations are at an all-time low.
Lavrov though remains highly driven because of the Global South/Global Majority – and the Russian presidency of the BRICS this year. He hugely praised Indian FM Jaishankar, and the comprehensive relations with China. He suggested the Russophiles Movement should take a global role, playfully suggesting we should all be part of a “Normal-o-philes” movement.
Well, Lavrov The Legend is also known for his wicked sense of humor. And humor is most effective when it is deadly serious. So here’s the key takeaway of these frantic days in Moscow: Normal-o-philes of the world, unite.
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From last year’s inauguration of the International Russophiles Movement (MIR):
An Interview with Sergei Glazyev, guru extraordinaire of multipolar geoeconomics… ‘the dogs bark — the Caravan of the Global Juggernaut moves on‘
By Pepe Escobar at Sputnik.
Very few people in Russia and across the Global South are as qualified as Sergei Glazyev, an academic with a prominent role within the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), to speak about the drive, the challenges and the pitfalls in the road towards de-dollarization.
As the Global South issues widespread calls for real financial stability; India inside the BRICS 10 makes it clear that everyone needs to think seriously about the toxic effects of unilateral sanctions; and Professor Michael Hudson keeps reiterating current policies are not sustainable anymore, Glazyev graciously received me at his office at the EEC for an exclusive, extensive conversation, including fascinating off the record odds and ends.
These are the highlights – as Glazyev’s ideas are being re-examined, and there’s huge expectation for the green light from the Russian government for a new trade settlement model – which for the moment is in the final stages of fine-tuning.
Glazyev explained how his main idea was “elaborated a long time ago. The basic idea is that a new currency should be first of all introduced on the basis of international law, signed by the countries which are interested in the production of this new currency. Not via some kind of conference, like Bretton Woods, with no legitimacy. At the first stage, not all countries would be included. BRICS nations will be enough – plus the SCO. In Russia, we already have our own SWIFT – the SPFS. We have our currency exchange, we have correspondent relations between banks, consultation between Central Banks, here we are absolutely self-sufficient.”
All that leads to adopting a new international currency:
“We don’t really need to go large scale. BRICS is enough. The idea of the currency is that there are two baskets: one basket is national currencies of all countries involved in the process, like the SDR, but with more clear, understandable criteria. The second basket are commodities. If you have two baskets, and we create the new currency as an index of commodities and national currencies, and we have a mechanism for reserves, according to the mathematical model that will be very stable. Stable and convenient.”
Then it’s up to feasibility:
“To introduce this currency as an instrument for transactions would not be too difficult. With good infrastructure, and all Central Banks approving it, then it’s up to businesses to use this currency. It should be in digital form – which means it can be used without the banking system, so it will be at least ten times cheaper than present transactions through banks and currency exchanges.”
That Thorny Central Bank Question
“Q: Have you presented this idea to the Chinese?”
“We presented it to Chinese experts, our partners at Renmin University. We had good feedback – but I did not have the opportunity to present it on a political level. Here in Russia we promote the discussion via papers, conferences, seminars, but there’s still no political decision on introducing this mechanism even on the BRICS agenda. The proposal by our team of experts is to include it in the agenda of the BRICS summit next October in Kazan. The problem is the Russian Central Bank is not enthusiastic. The BRICS have only decided on an operating plan to use national currencies – which is also a quite clear idea, as national currencies are already used in our trade. Russian ruble is the main currency in the EAEU, trade with China is conducted in rubles and renminbi, trade with India and Iran and Turkiye also switched to national currencies. Each country has the infrastructure for it. If Central Banks introduce digital national currencies and allow them to be used in international trade, it’s also a good model. In this case crypto exchanges can easily balance payments – and it’s a very cheap mechanism. What is needed is an agreement from Central Banks to allow a certain amount of national currencies in digital form to participate in international transactions.”
“Q: Would that be feasible already in 2024, if there is political will?”
“There are some start-ups already. By the way, they are in the West, and the digitalization is conducted by private companies, not Central Banks. So the demand is there. Our Central Bank needs to elaborate a proposal for the summit in Kazan. But this is only one part of the story. The second part is price. For the moment price is determined by Western speculation. We produce these commodities, we consume them, but we do not have our own price mechanism, which will balance supply and demand. During the Covid panic, the price for oil fell to nearly zero. It’s impossible to make any strategic planning for economic development if you do not control prices of basic commodities. Price formation with this new currency should get rid of Western exchanges of commodities. My idea is based on a mechanism that existed in the Soviet Union, in the Comecon. In that period we had long-term agreements not only with socialist countries, but also with Austria, and other Western countries, to supply gas for 10 years, 20 years, the basis of this price formula was the price for oil, and the price for gas.”
So what stands out is the effectiveness of a long-term, long view policy:
“We did create a long-term pattern. Here in the EEC we are looking at the idea of a common exchange market. We already prepared a draft, with some experiments. The first step is the creation of an information network, exchanges in different countries. It was rather successful. The second step will be to set up online communication between exchanges, and finally we move to a common mechanism of price formation, and open this mechanism for all other countries. The main problem is that the major producers of commodities, first of all the oil companies, they don’t like to trade through exchanges. They like to trade personally, so you need a political decision to make sure that at least half of production of commodities should go through exchanges. A mechanism where supply and demand balance each other. For the moment the price of oil in foreign markets is ‘secret’. It’s some type of colonial times thinking. ‘How to cheat’. We must create legislation to open all this information to the public.”
The NDB in Need of a Shake-up
Glazyev offered an extensive analysis of the BRICS universe, based on how the BRICS Business Council had its first meeting on financial services in early February. They agreed on a working plan; there was a first session of fintech experts; and during this week a breakthrough meeting may lead to a new formulation – for the moment not made public – to be put into the BRICS agenda for the October summit.
“Q: What are the main challenges within the BRICS structure in this next stage of trying to bypass the US dollar?”
“BRICS in fact is a club which doesn’t have a secretariat. I can tell it, from a person that has some experience in integration. We discussed the idea of a customs union here, on the post-Soviet territory, immediately after the collapse. We had a lot of declarations, even some agreements signed by heads of state, over a common economic space. But only after the establishment of a commission the real work stated, in the year 2008. After 20 years of papers, conferences, nothing was done. You need someone who’s responsible. In BRICS there is such an organization – the NDB [New Development Bank]. If the heads of state decide to appoint the NDB as an institution which will elaborate the new model, the new currency, organize an international conference with the draft of an international treaty, this can work.
The problem is that the NDB works according to the dollar charter. They have to reorganize this institution in order to make it workable. Now it works like an ordinary international development bank under the American framework. The second option would be to do it without this bank, but that would be much more difficult. This bank has enough expertise.”
“Q: Could an internal shake-up of the NDB be proposed by the Russian presidency of BRICS this year?”
“We are doing our best. I’m not sure the Ministry of Finance understands how serious this is. The President understands. I personally promoted this idea to him. But the chairman of the Central Bank, and ministers are still thinking in the old IMF paradigm.”
‘Religious Sects Don’t Create Innovation’
Glazyev had a serious discussion on sanctions with the NDB:
“I discussed this issue with Mrs. Rousseff [the former Brazilian President, currently presiding the NDB) at the St. Petersburg Forum. I gave her a paper about it. She was rather enthusiastic and invited us to come to the NDB. But afterwards there was no follow-up. Last year everything was very difficult.”
On BRICS, “the financial services working group is discussing reinsurance, credit rating, new currencies in fintech. That’s what should be in the agenda of the NDB. The best possibility would be a meeting in Moscow in March or April, to discuss in depth the whole range of issues of BRICS settlement mechanism, from most sophisticated to least sophisticated. It would be great if the NDB sign up for it, but as it stands there is a de facto gulf between the BRICS and the NDB.”
The key point, insists Glazyev, is that “Dilma should find time to organize these discussions at a high level. A political decision is needed.”
“Q: But wouldn’t that decision have to come from Putin himself?”
“It’s not so easy. We heard statements by at least three heads of the state: Russia, South Africa and Brazil. They publicly said ‘this is a good idea’. The problem, once again, is there is no task force yet. My idea, which we proposed before the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, is to create an international working group – to prepare in the next sessions the model, or the draft, of the treaty. How to switch to national currencies. That’s the official agenda now. And they have to report about that in Kazan [for the BRICS annual summit]. There are some consultations between the Central Banks and Ministers of Finance.”
Glazyev cut to the chase when it comes to the inertia of the system:
“The main problem for bureaucrats and experts is ‘why they don’t have ideas?’ Because they assume the current status quo is the best one. If there are no sanctions, everything will be good. The international financial architecture that was created by the United States and Europe is convenient. Everyone knows how to work in the system. So it’s impossible to move from this system to another system. For businesses it will be very difficult. For banks it will be difficult. People have been educated in the paradigm of financial equilibrium, totally libertarian. They don’t care that prices are manipulated by speculators, they don’t care about volatility of national currencies, They think it’s natural (…) It’s a kind of religious sect. Religious sects don’t create innovation.”
Now Get on That Hypersonic Bicycle
We’re back to the crucial issue of national currencies:
“Even five years ago, when I spoke about national currencies in trade, everybody said it was completely impossible. We have long-term contracts in dollars and euro. We have an established culture of transactions. When I was Minister of Foreign Trade, 30 years ago, at the time I tried to push all our trade in commodities into rubles. I argued with Yeltsin and others, ‘we have to trade in rubles, not in dollars’. That would automatically make the ruble a reserve currency. When Europe moved to the euro, I had a meeting with Mr. Prodi, and we agreed, ‘we will use euro as your currency, and you will use rubles’. Then Prodi came to me after consultations and said, ‘I talked to Mr. Kudrin [former Russian Finance Minister, 2000-2011], he didn’t ask me to make the ruble a reserve currency’. That was sabotage. It was stupidity.”
The problems actually run deep – and keep running:
“The problem was our regulators, educated by the IMF, and the second problem was corruption. If you trade oil and gas in dollars, a large part of profits is stolen, there are a lot of intermediate companies which manipulate prices. Prices are only the first step. The price for natural gas in the first deal is about 10 times less than the final demand. There are institutional barriers. A majority of countries do not allow our companies to sell oil and gas to the final customer. Like you cannot sell gas to households. Nevertheless, even in the open market, quite competitive, we have intermediates between producer and consumer – at least half of the revenues are stolen from government control. They don’t pay taxes.”
Yet fast solutions do exist:
“When we were sanctioned two years ago, transfer from US dollar and euro to national currencies took only a few months. It was very quick.”
On investments, Glazyev stressed success in localized trade, but capital flows are still not there:
“The Central Banks are not doing their job. The ruble-renminbi exchange is working well. But the ruble-rupee exchange doesn’t work. The banks that keep these rupees, they have a lot of money, accrue interest rates on these rupees, and they can play with them. I don’t know who’s responsible for this, our Central Bank or the Indian Central Bank.”
The succinct, key takeaway of Glazyev’s serious warnings is that it would be up to the NDB – prodded by the leadership of BRICS – to organize a conference of global experts and open it for public discussion. Glazyev evoked the metaphor of a bicycle that keeps rolling along – so why invent a new bicycle? Well, the – multipolar – time has come for a new hypersonic bicycle.
Ouvert le 1er mars sur la côte russe de la mer Noire, le Festival mondial de la jeunesse a réuni
L’article Le Festival mondial de la jeunesse en Russie rassemblera les partisans de l’anticolonialisme sur la planète est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères Sergueï Lavrov est arrivé en Turquie. Il a été accueilli à l’aéroport par des
L’article Lavrov est arrivé à Antalya en Turquie pour un forum diplomatique est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Political economists Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson discuss the rhetoric and reality of Bidenomics, and how good US President Joe Biden really was for the economy.
Radhika Desai and Michael Hudson at The Geopolitical Economy Hour
“what is Bidenomics? It’s a slogan for a war economy, financed by a financial bubble.”
Video:
Podcast:
Transcript:
RADHIKA DESAI: Hello and welcome to the 23rd Geopolitical Economy Hour, the show that examines the fast-changing political and geopolitical economy of our time. I’m Radhika Desai.
MICHAEL HUDSON: And I’m Michael Hudson.
RADHIKA DESAI: And working behind the scenes to bring you this show every fortnight are our host, Ben Norton; our videographer, Paul Graham; and our transcriber, Zach Weisser.
2024 is being billed as the greatest election year in history. More than 50 countries are going to the polls, that’s 7 out of its 10 most populous countries, with a combined population of 4.2 billion, that is more than half the world’s 8 billion population.
Among these, for good or ill, one might add, the US election will be the most consequential, deciding life and death questions such as how much war the world will witness, how well its economy will do.
This is not because the US is a force for peace and development. On the contrary, it’s been weighing down on the prospects of peace and development for decades. Of course, the formal choices before the US public promise to change little, though a worsening on both fronts is entirely in the cards, no matter which of the two main contenders on the scene at present win the election.
But will they even, will either of them win the election because there are so many uncertainties around this election? Will Biden run? Can Trump run? If not they, then who will represent this increasingly divided country?
And if no one can, is civil war a possibility that has been canvassed in practically every major news outlet on the cards? And what will civil war in the US mean for the rest of the world?
All these questions are part of the story of the 2024 elections. These are the circumstances in which they are being held.
Biden’s approval rating is only 38%. Indeed, it had dipped into negative territory by August of the first year he took office. And since then, they have only gotten worse.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, what does the public see that Biden and his supporters are not recognizing? That’s really the question that I think we have to talk about today.
RADHIKA DESAI: Exactly. And what is the public seeing and what is the public experiencing to give him these negative ratings? Biden’s one hope was to unite the country behind him through good economic stewardship.
After all, it was James Carville, Bill Clinton’s campaign manager, the guy who helped reshape democratic politics in the aftermath of the Reagan electoral earthquake, who said, it’s the economy, stupid. You can’t win elections without a good economy.
And you can’t say Biden hasn’t tried. He’s even ponied up a new term: “Bidenomics”. We are told that this is going to solve the US’s deep-seated economic problems.
And certainly his Bidenomics has included considerable sops to the biggest US corporations, the idea being that somehow this is going to induce them to invest, although it is not clear what sort of quid pro quo had actually been set up. And nor is it clear that they’re actually investing even after receiving these sops.
The pro-Biden establishment, of course, has picked up this term and run with it. They’re trying hard to set up an election year narrative that under Biden, the US economy has done very well, Bidenomics is working, and it has moreover achieved that miracle of miracles, a soft landing, by which is meant that it has slain the dragon of inflation without inducing a recession.
However, their job is not easy, and the holes in the story that they’re trying to weave together are widening.
So Michael and I thought it would be a good time to do a 360-degree check on the US economy, and we want to do it by going through a number of major topics.
We’ll talk about employment, we’ll talk about the investment situation, the trade situation, the real story about inflation in the US, because it’s not so clear that the dragon of inflation has been slain, the problem of financial stability, and finally, of course, the issue of the budget. So these are the topics we are going to go through.
But before that, before we go through these topics, we must begin with a contrast. On the one hand, the stock market is soaring.
Let me just show you a few of the stock market indices here.
This is the S&P, so Standard and Poor 500. You can see it is at the highest point it’s ever been in its history.
This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, similarly at a peak.
And the NASDAQ is, if not at a peak, at a peak pretty close to its previous peak.
So you can see that all the stock markets are doing really, really well. But Michael, does this mean that the US economy is doing well?
MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, it certainly means that there is a tech bubble and a war industry bubble. But let’s look at all the things that are increasing. Since your chart, not only are stocks going up, but when stocks go up, economic polarization increases, because most of the stocks are owned by the top 10% of the population.
So economic polarization is increasing as wealth is concentrated at the top of the economic pyramid. And a lot of voters see this as unfair.
So to say that the stock market and the 1% are doing well is not really a good political selling point, unless you can convince people that, well, you can be a capitalist in miniature.
You can invest your pension funds in the stock market, you can invest your savings, and maybe you can get rich just like the billionaires.
How do you get them to think of themselves not as wage earners, but as stock market investors? If you can convince voters to think that they’re finance capitalists instead of wage earners, you’ve got a good selling point.
But let’s look at other things that are up: Crime is up. Shoplifting, robbery, phone and internet scamming. I’ve already got my morning internet scam call.
Rents are up, utilities are pricing, and food outside the home is pricing. I think we’ll get to these charts later. There we go:
Basic food, eggs. All of a sudden, people are having to pay more, whether they’re eating at home or whether they’re buying the food at the stores.
Everybody’s noticing the prices are rising and the packages are getting more and more empty. You’ll get a box of cornflakes and a lot of it is air now.
RADHIKA DESAI: It’s called shrinkflation. Prices go up and what they sell you, the quantities go down.
MICHAEL HUDSON: That’s right. Exactly.
Housing is also basically up. When housing prices are up, you also get homelessness up.
Taking the subway in New York, you’ll see a very crowded subway car, and then all of a sudden, you’ll see cars with hardly anyone in it, and that’ll be a homeless person that maybe hasn’t had a chance to take a bath for quite a few days. You’re seeing that already.
RADHIKA DESAI: If I may just interject, this is the percentage of households who spend more than 30% of their income on housing.
Overall, 30% of all US households are spending more of their housing, but among renters, this ratio goes up to 50%, while among owners, it is 21%. You can see that those who are wealthy and relatively better off who own their own homes are penalized less than those who are relatively worse off.
You see here, again, another really shocking statistic. This chart goes back to 1960.
You can see that the ratio of house prices to the median household income went down after the 60s and remained low right into the 1980s, but from about 2000 onwards, basically coinciding with the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve, house prices as a proportion of median income has risen, and although they again fell after the 2008 housing bubble burst, they began rising again, and today they are even higher than they were in 2008.
MICHAEL HUDSON: The situation is actually much worse than that chart says, because not only have housing prices gone up, but the mortgage rates have gone up. They’ve doubled from about 3% to almost 7%.
Now, if you have a mortgage, you want to buy a house, you don’t want to be a renter, you want to escape from being a renter, you buy a house, and your mortgage has to be 7%.
That means the entire price of the house, the mortgage that you’re paying, doubles in 10 years, and if it’s a 30-year mortgage, it doubles again and it quadruples in 20 years and multiplies eight times by the end of the 30-year mortgage, so that the bank will get eight times as much for the house you buy as the person who sells the house to you.
The mortgage rate and the debt attached to the house is expanding even more rapidly than the housing prices.
That’s what debt deflation is, and that’s part of why the economy is being malstructured.
So what voters are seeing is not simply the economy’s getting worse, but the whole way in which it’s structuring and the direction it’s going in, financialization and the whole neoliberal plan makes them want to throw the rascals out of office.
RADHIKA DESAI: Indeed, the approval ratings figures are showing exactly that.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Yes, what they’re disapproving of is the economy above all, and people say, oh, it’s just because Mr. Biden’s getting senile. Well, it’s not that he’s getting senile, it’s that he’s a nasty, bad person running a nasty, bad economy. That’s really the key.
We haven’t even mentioned the medical costs going up for people who have lost their jobs or they have to stay home because of COVID. There’s a whole COVID effect of the economy. Long COVID is a problem that isn’t being counted. A lot of people are having to take part-time jobs.
So what you’re seeing is a kind of crapification of the economy. You mentioned that about the prices that we’re seeing. A whole new vocabulary is being developed to describe what’s happening in the economy, and shitification, the whole bit.
So let’s look at what hasn’t increased. Maybe there’s a bright spot there: well, lifespans have not increased, and health generally has gone way down.
You have a reversal in the whole post-war rise of lifespans. They’ve gone down. They’ve gone down especially for people who earn less than $50,000 a year. For non-white people, they’re turning down. Wages have been turning down.
The Financial Times last week had a story that wages are growing more slowly for employers working at home because employers want to see them in the office.
And yet what they’ve found in your country now, England, is that workers from home, the productivity is going up even faster than workers who actually have to go to the office and sit on the long transportation train to get in, whether it’s London or New York.
So the Financial Times said this is a success story. Employers gain in both ways. The workers get to stay home, and they’re more productive, but you’re paying them less for the right to stay home.
RADHIKA DESAI: And you’re not paying for all those offices. We’ll come back to that as well. But shall we go into our discussion of the various topics now?
MICHAEL HUDSON: Sure.
RADHIKA DESAI: So the first topic we wanted to discuss was employment. So on the employment front, recently, as many of you will have seen, the Biden administration is making much of a report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which reports that 350,000 new jobs were created in the previous month. However, there are huge problems with that.
First of all, let me just show you the story, the official story that the Biden administration would like to emphasize. So this is the official unemployment rate that is shown on the Federal Reserve website:
And you can see this chart also goes back to 1950. And you can see that there have been various peaks in unemployment in the 1980s and again after 2008. And then unemployment went down.
And then, of course, this huge narrow spike is the COVID pandemic, when, of course, it hit nearly 15%, officially, at least. And since then, it has declined.
And so President Biden feels that he can pat himself on the back for bringing down the unemployment rate.
However, there are many, many other elements to this story, which are not being talked about. First of all, as opposed to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, coming up with this number of 353,000 new jobs, a private payroll company, which essentially gathers, you know, basically, it knows who is paying whom, how much in wages, etc., what is the payroll of different companies, reported that only 107,000 private sector jobs were created, which is a very small amount.
And even if to this, you add the public sector jobs that are created, which will have expanded, because of Biden administration initiatives, nevertheless, it, you know, this would mean that if 353,000 new jobs were created, then job creation is being led by the government.
But at the same time, let’s also see something else, full time employment has fallen. That means, and this is, of course, been historically the issue, the United States always claims that it is such a wonderful job-creating economy. But few people point out that the bulk of the jobs that are created are part time jobs, they may even be zero hours contracts, and so on.
So, the actual quality, and of course, the kind of jobs there are, the benefits are low, the wages are low, etc. So, you essentially have an epidemic of McJobs rather than good-paying jobs.
Furthermore, this unemployment rate that I showed you is, unemployment rate is always calculated as the number of people who have failed to find work out of a total number, which includes those who are, those who are either working or actively seeking work. But it does not include those who have stopped actively seeking work.
And that number has actually … been going up for a long time, but it has particularly spiked in recent years.
So, in reality, the actual number of American people who are employed as a proportion of the labor force is going [down] … I want to show you the chart:
The labor force participation rate was fairly low, just below about 60% in the 50s, because of course, at that time, most women did not work. But beginning in the 1960s, as women began entering the labor force, the labor force participation rate began to go up, and it rose steadily through all those decades, up to about 2000, when you see this final little peak here. And since then, it has been in decline.
So, essentially, what workers are saying is that as neoliberalism has matured, as labor legislation, which decreased the onus on employers and essentially allowed employers to offer workers worse and worse jobs for worse and worse conditions and pay and so on, people who could choose to leave the labor force have been leaving the labor force, of course, we’re not even counting those who become disabled, particularly after COVID and so on.
But it has been declining, it declined massively during COVID. Since then, it has recovered, but it still remains short of the point it was at when COVID struck.
So, you can see that this is a relatively favorable story that the administration is trying to, is able to tell entirely because of this matter of labor force participation rates.
And finally, a couple of final points. Wage growth has been down for a year, particularly, as Michael was saying, for work-at-home employees. But the productivity is higher, so employers are gaining.
Workers’ insecurity is very high, and it is high precisely because they don’t have stable, permanent jobs. They have jobs that don’t last very long, that are part-time, that they hold at the whim of the employer. So, the traumatized worker syndrome still remains.
Back in the late 1990s, when Alan Greenspan was asked why, if the economy was running so, you know, the economy was running so hot, essentially, it was running so well, how come there was not more inflation? And he said it’s because of the traumatized worker. Workers are unwilling to demand higher wages, even though, according to him, the labor force, you know, the employment rate was very high.
But the simple reason was the workers were getting bad jobs, that they were getting insecure jobs. So, they were traumatized and insecure. They were unable to complain.
So, and finally, the quitting rate is very high, partly for medical reasons, but also because hospital workers, teachers, etc., do not feel medically protected at their job.
So, and according to the Biden administration, of course, COVID is over. So, these are some of the problems with this idea that somehow the Biden administration has given Americans a low unemployment rate.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, you’ve made all the points that I would have made, so I don’t have to make them.
I would like to see a chart for statistics they don’t collect: The employment by U.S. multinational corporations worldwide. Their employment in the U.S. may have gone down, but their employment abroad, especially in Asia, the maquiladoras along the Mexican border, their employment has gone up, but just not employment for their workers in the United States because it’s not really economic to employ American labor, given the rise in housing costs that we’ve just discussed, medical costs, and all the other costs that are going up.
America has priced labor out of the market, except for monopolies, especially artificial intelligence monopolies and military-industrial complexes. These are not competitive, so America doesn’t really have to do anything there.
You pointed to the structural shift in labor. It’s dangerous to go back to the office if they don’t have clean air and if you’re exposed to COVID, and the COVID rates continue to go up, and there’s nothing being done to encourage air purifiers or even the use of masks. You’ve made the points that I would have made.
RADHIKA DESAI: Okay. There’s another couple of points, though, and Michael, I think you wanted to talk about pensions as well, but let me make one point here further, which is that there’s a very odd discrepancy in U.S. growth figures that is increasingly being talked about.
And that is that there are two measures of GDP. One is GDP, gross domestic product, and the other is GNI, gross national income, and very often these two are basically supposed to match. I mean, there were maybe some statistical discrepancies, but the first, GDP, which measures essentially how much value was made out of the production of goods and services, and the GNI, gross national income, which measures how much people earned out of that process, this discrepancy is essentially being put down to the fact that workers are not buying, workers essentially are not, you know, they’re not getting high wages, they’re not buying enough goods, and a lot of their income is actually replaced by debt.
And the second thing is that, in fact, a lot of the things that are actually being produced are not, in fact, being sold. So, both of these things are also problems
Michael, you wanted to talk about pensions on the employment.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Yes, that’s the problem. Not only are the workers’ conditions getting poor, but pensions are no longer defined-benefit pensions, and many of the pension plans in the United States are actually broke.
Again, there was a Financial Times article last week that said that, Brooks Masters wrote, that the typical Generation X household has just $40,000 saved for retirement, and 40 percent of their 401k pension plans are zero. So, this is the result of not having a pay-as-you-go pension policy like Germany has and Europe has. Pensions have been financialized. In other words, instead of just paying out of the current economic surplus that you’re producing, workers and companies have to pay, save up money in advance instead of investing.
The post office, for instance, post office rates, postage prices in America are soaring because the attempt by Congress to privatize the post office means you have to include the pension plans for the next 75 years all in the price of your postage by saving it in advance, not hiring more labor, not improving the mail delivery, but just the turnover to the stock and bond markets to invest so you can pay pensions if there are any postal employees left.
Of course, the whole objective in increasing the public pension plans is to say, oh, I’m sorry, the post office and other public agencies are broke. We’ve got to privatize them. You privatize them, and what happens is what happened in England under Margaret Thatcher. You wipe out all of the pensions because there’s no company to pay them anymore.
Now, Peter Drucker called this pension-fund socialism before, because he said this is wonderful, workers and companies are going to pay for stocks, and that’s going to create financial wealth that’s going to be spent on new factories and new employment, and workers will be capitalists in miniature. Through the pension plans, they’ll be stockholders.
But the effect is simply to divert wage income into the financial markets, into the stock market. The pension system is a bonanza for the stock market and for bondholders because it’s financializing the economy, but it’s an awful noose for the workers who have to pay their own pensions instead of making pensions a public right like it is in socialist economies.
RADHIKA DESAI: Exactly, and if I may add a few points to this, this idea that the Peter Drucker idea that somehow you will get a kind of pension-plan socialism.
There’s a very interesting real-life example of this. In the 1970s in Sweden, thanks to a very high level of coordination between trade unions, governments, and employers, what had happened is that they had managed to create a fairly high-wage economy, a fairly prosperous working class, a very, very generous welfare state providing a whole range of services.
So then the question was, how would workers, whose wages will continue to increase thanks to rising productivity, what would be now done with the rising wages? What would they do? So they decided that they would create a wage earner fund, and the wage earner fund would slowly start buying up the stock of existing corporations for which they work, and slowly they would eventually become the owners of these companies, and that was the general idea. It was called the Rehn-Meidner plan.
And this plan was much discussed. Everybody thought it was great, but what immediately followed, beginning in the 1980s, was a major capitalist counter-offensive, an attack on the unions, which essentially meant that this wage earner fund plan was watered down to an extent that it became meaningless. And of course, today, in many ways, people would say that Sweden has gone from a Valhalla of socialism or social democracy to being a Valhalla of neoliberalism. So I did want to say that.
MICHAEL HUDSON: I want to add a technical twist, and that already occurred in the 1970s in Chile under the University of Chicago guidance. You’ll have the Chilean companies found out how to do pension plans the neoliberal way. You do have the workers buy the stock in the company, but the company owner will also have a whole array of companies. They’ll have a holding company for the industrial company, they’ll have an offshore bank account to hold the stock in the company, and the company will continue to make basically loans to its holding company and be loaded down with more and more debt. It’ll borrow, borrow, and then the holding company, the actual industrial employer, will be left to go bankrupt. It’s a corporate shell, and all the money will have been taken by the holding company.
And so very quickly, Sam Zell, the real estate owner, did this with the Chicago Tribune. The Chicago Tribune had exactly what you’re saying. We’re going to be part owners, we reporters and news people. And so Zell bought the Tribune, then he took all the money in the pension plan, lent it to himself and the holding company, and then said, oh, it’s broke, and wiped out all of the stockholders. I discuss that in my book, Killing the Host. That’s the pension plan finance capitalism.
RADHIKA DESAI: Exactly. And this is exactly the reason why, as this is particularly true in the United States, one reads every few months, one reads that some or the other pension plan has essentially lost its money. And that means the workers who had put in their money, their hard-earned money into these financialized pension plans, essentially are getting nothing in return.
But there’s a couple more points to be made. First of all, when you financialize pension plans, workers are encouraged to think that somehow they are also becoming capitalists, that they have a stake in the stock market, et cetera.
Now, what really happens when our pension money goes into, essentially becomes privatized and is now being managed by some or the other private financial institution, is that our pension money just becomes so much throw weight that they can use in order to move markets in their favor. Remember, when you are speculating, if you are speculating with a few hundred or a few thousand dollars, you are a price taker, a market taker. But when you are speculating with millions of dollars and maybe even billions of dollars worth of money, you are a market maker, you are a price maker, which means that you essentially get to rig the system.
So, our money is used by these fund managers and so on as throw weight in their speculative activities. So, this actually increases speculation, it inflates asset bubbles, and it makes financial crisis, from which we all suffer as working people, more regular, more frequent, and so on.
MICHAEL HUDSON: The situation actually gets worse than fund managers. Because the pension plans are in deficit, the pension managers are desperate. How are they going to get more money? They turn the money over to private capital. And private capital is much worse than the pension fund managers. Private capital makes its money by buying a corporation and driving it bankrupt.
Private capital does to the U.S. economy what it’s done to Sears Roebuck, to Toys R Us. The company will borrow a lot of money from a bank. It’ll pay a special dividend to the private capital owners. The owners will immediately say, we’ve got the increased earnings, we’re going to cut back productivity. When workers leave, we’re not going to replace them. We’re going to work them harder. We’re going to give the traumatized workers syndrome with emphasis. And so, by workers thinking, I’m going to be a capitalist, just like the rich people, and my pension fund is going to make money for me as a capitalist. But making money as a finance capitalist means hurting their identity as a wage earner. What are they going to think of themselves as?
RADHIKA DESAI: Well, exactly. And so, definitely. And the other thing as well is that, of course, the companies that are brought into the control of private capital, these CEOs, etc., they borrow money in order to also, like Michael said, they certainly borrow money in order to pay huge dividends, but they also borrow money in order to engage in share buybacks, which increases the value of the shares. And all of this is being done on the backs of existing employees.
And of course, in doing so, they very often misuse and misapply pension funds so that they can go bust as well.
But my second and third point are equally important, which is that workers who think that they are participating in the stock market and therefore rising stock markets are good for them, etc., should always remember two things.
Number one, when markets go up, they may benefit, but they always benefit much less than the people who are controlling these markets, the big financial institutions and so on. They are very low on the pecking order of benefit from financial speculation.
And number two, when there is a loss, they lose much more than those who are controlling these pension funds, etc., who have their golden parachutes and so on.
So that’s about the employment situation. Now, let us look at the next point, which is what is happening with investment.
So here again, you know, we are being told that parts of the US economy are finally doing much better because investment rates are somehow better and so on. But let’s look at what’s really happening with investment.
So this is a chart showing gross fixed capital formation in the United States from 1970 to onwards:
And you can see that on average, if you drew a trend line in this chart, it would basically be pointing downwards. So basically throughout the neoliberal era, investment, which is in many ways the main driver of the economy, consumption is also important, but investment is essentially, you know, the more there is investment, there is the more growth there will be because investment itself creates growth and it increases productivity and growth.
So this has essentially been going down. This peak here is at the end of the 1970s. It’s going down. This is about 1990, going up again just with the tech bubble up here and then with the housing and credit bubble, but then essentially declining after 2008. Since then, it has risen, but as you can see, it remains below, in fact, even many of the low points of the previous 50 years, let alone the high points.
So and in the last couple of years of the Biden administration, these figures are only available to us for now up to 2021. But you can see that under Biden’s first year, it effectively took a downturn.
And let me also add one other thing, which is that investment is a proportion of GDP:
You know, the United States and the Biden administration make much of competing with China and so on. Let’s take a look at this graph. It only goes to 2015, but I don’t think the story has changed.
And this graph, by the way, is the work of my partner, my husband and intellectual partner, Alan Freeman.
And here you can see he has given investment as a proportion of GDP for China, which is this bold blue line, and for many other countries. But we just want to focus on China and the United States, which is the green line.
And indeed, as you can see, the green line is basically at the bottom of all these comparable countries, including Europe, Japan, other industrialized countries, and so on, and even the global south, which is here in this thin blue line.
So you can see if you’re going to compete with China in terms of growth and productivity and so on, China at its peak is spending 45 percent of its GDP on investment. By contrast, the US is spending less than 20 percent, less than half in investment. So this is the sorry state of investment in the United States.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Oh, it’s much worse than that. It doesn’t say how the composition of this investment has shifted. This re-rising of the US investment is largely military industrial. A lot of it is also real estate. That’s probably the largest element of a lot of this investment. And the real estate investment has been transforming the whole economy.
And that includes buying out existing companies. That’s counted as a new investment. If you buy a building that was at a low price before, buying it at a high price is a new investment. In London, for instance, you just had the sale of the British telephone phone tower last week to a hotel company. So it’s privatized. They’re going to essentially use that as a new investment. But it’s not building a new building. It’s just taking something over.
In the United States, you had the last few months, you had Greyhound bus terminals sold. That was an investment, sort of like Stagecoach in London. The company that bought Greyhound is a real estate company. They said, we’re going to tear down the terminals that are put in the center of the city. The reason they’re in the center of the city is so that they’ll be convenient for people who ride the bus. They can go to the terminal, have a place to sit, buy tickets. We’re going to make them go to the outskirts of the city and wait outside, regardless of the weather, because we don’t care about the users of our service. We want the real estate. So we’re going to essentially dismantle the public service investment and make a gentrified version out of this.
And in New York, you’re having the Wall Street area. All of these commercial office buildings in New York, there’s a 40% vacancy rate on commercial buildings. So companies are coming in to try to invest the company, saying, well, there’s no more industrial economy to put in these buildings. Let’s gentrify it for all the people who are getting rich on the financial sector, making money de-industrializing the economy.
Well, there’s one problem with this that they’re suddenly finding out. You can take an office building, a bank, or a publishing company, or whatever, and divide it into residential units, but where are you going to put the kitchens? These buildings are not geared to have gas and electricity and venting for kitchens. And what about bathrooms? If you look at how your employer is set up at a company, this is not the kind of bathroom that you’re going to want near a bedroom or living room for a residential person. So there’s an idea that somehow you can do to the commercial office buildings in America what President Obama did to Chicago before president when his job was tearing down black neighborhoods and getting rid of the low-income blacks and gentrifying them for his sponsor, the Pittsburghs, to make a real estate fortune there.
So fortunes are being made by real estate investment, not exactly industrial investment. Real estate is, again, part of the FIRE sector, finance, insurance, and real estate. You’re having investment in research and development. That’s called capital investment. You’re getting the picture that the investment that is taking place isn’t the kind of investment that originally helped an industrial economy. It’s a de-industrializing form of investment.
RADHIKA DESAI: And there’s also, I mean, well, gross fixed capital formation will actually measure physical investments, so that there’s definitely some physical investment taking place. But as we see, it’s much lower than China’s, it is not really recovering. And more to the point, if there has been any kind of recovery or whatever little investment is taking place, let’s put it that way, whatever little investment in actual plant and machinery is taking place under the Biden administration is happening in large part because of the sops he’s giving to industry via his Inflation Reduction Act and other such initiatives. So essentially, he is giving certain corporations money to invest in certain sectors. And this is why you are seeing it. So it’s the dynamo or the dynamic, the mojo of American capitalism is definitely not back. It is definitely very weak.
MICHAEL HUDSON: You mentioned the inflation and that act. One of the high points of it was advertised by Taiwan, taking its computer chip company, wanting, getting, I think, over vast billions of dollars to set up a computer chip system in Arizona. The people came up here and they say, oh, it’s not going to work. There are no workers. You know, you said that you were going to provide us with American labor to work in the investment plant, but there aren’t any American workers because they’re not trained as working industrially. You know, who are we supposed to hire as workers for our computer chip plant if you don’t have workers trained to work in computer chip plants or other industries?
RADHIKA DESAI: And, you know, that also reminds me, I mean, we haven’t even talked about this, but the state of public education, that is the education that most ordinary American kids get, has actually been declining to such an extent, as we know, for decades. You know, teachers will complain that they spend all their time trying to keep control of the classrooms. How are they going to teach kids anything? So if your kids are not learning what they need to learn, how are they going to become even semi-skilled workers, let alone skilled workers? So absolutely, I’m not at all surprised.
Some time ago, I remember reading somewhere that the Japanese companies that were being encouraged to invest in car plants in the so-called right-to-work states, these companies were having to produce the literature to minimally give instructions to workers using symbols rather than putting it in writing, because many of these kids were functionally illiterate.
But let’s go on, because we have quite a few things more to talk about, and we don’t want to go too much over an hour.
So very briefly, we said that we would talk about the U.S. trade deficit, and once again, vis-a-vis the trade deficit, the Biden administration is crowing about its great achievement.
You see here the U.S. trade deficit, which, of course, historically had been very [high]. That is, you know, in this graph, the higher the line is, the better the situation. So when the line dips, the deficit grows.
So you can see beginning around the 1980s and then really taking off in the 1990s, the U.S. trade deficit was quite, you know, dipped quite low. People were really worried about the so-called twin deficits and so on. And then after 2008, precisely because of the massive recession in the United States, the trade situation improved. The trade deficit actually narrowed. And this is also very interesting, you know, historically because of deindustrialization.
The United States has a tendency that when the economy grows, the trade deficit grows. Why? Because American consumers prefer buying foreign goods. So this has been the case for many decades in the United States. So obviously, with incomes shrinking, so did the trade deficit.
But once again, it resumed declining. And as you see here, in the Trump years and also in the Biden years, the trade deficit declined. You know, as you see, it reached a really, really low point already under the Trump administration. And it has recovered, but it still remains at historic high levels.
So in that sense, if there has been any improvement in the trade deficit, again, this is largely because of the sickness of the American economy, the poverty of American consumers, not because of any miracle that the Biden administration has executed or has brought off in the U.S. economy.
MICHAEL HUDSON: I think the Biden administration has vastly helped the trade deficit. You know, what is Bidenomics? It’s a slogan for a war economy, financed by a financial bubble. And the State Department official, Victoria Nuland, just gave another plea for Congress to give a few hundred, a hundred million dollars for the weapons in Ukraine and Israel. And since our show focuses on geopolitics, I want to point out how war spending is contributing to the trade balance and also to American affluence against Europe’s NATO countries that America has just conquered economically.
Nuland picked up President Biden’s point that in reminding politicians that almost all the money for the war in Ukraine is going to be spent here in the United States, employing labor in the local districts of all the congressmen on the military and national security committees. That’s why war stops are going up. And it’s the merchants of death business.
And Biden is pretending to reindustrialize the economy by emphasizing how this military industrial sector is not subject to price competitiveness. You can do it with low productivity, high cost labor, because it’s a proprietary good. It’s an economic monopoly good for the weapons. Biden said, quote, but patriot missiles for air defense batteries made in Arizona, artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, and so much more.
Well, these are the swing states in the election. And you have Biden, Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and the other Democrats recognize that the world economy is splitting up between the U.S. and NATO neoliberal countries called “democracies” and the global majority seeking independence. Well, it’s almost as if they’re channeling Rosa Luxemburg. She said the choices between socialism and barbarism. And Biden and Nuland agree, except what socialism is, what’s occurring in the global majority. Barbarism is what’s occurring in the American NATO militarization and the fight in Ukraine and the Near East.
But the fight in Ukraine has helped the U.S. balance of payments, the trade balance, by essentially forcing the NATO countries to impose the sanctions against Russia that we’ve talked about. The anti-Russian sanctions have broken the German industrial economy for good. And that’s why German companies, Mercedes, Porsche, BASF, are moving to the United States, because they can’t get the oil and the gas and the energy that’s needed to make industrial goods.
And what’s happening as a result? America is not buying European investments. America is replacing Russia as a supplier of gas, liquefied natural gas. That’s way up for the exports. Oil, way up. Basically, America is gaining.
And also, this $100 million, all these billions that NATO have given to Ukraine have emptied out their war stocks. And they now say, we have to buy new arms of up to 2% to 3% of our GDP. And who can make it? America can make it, because we don’t have any oil and gas to power the industry to make these stocks. This is going to be a huge, huge increase in the American trade balance while the euro goes down and down and down.
RADHIKA DESAI: If I may add, one of the things that I forgot to mention earlier is that a large part of the improvement in the US trade deficit under Biden in the last couple of years, particularly, has come precisely from the export of liquefied natural gas. So think about it. Instead of having some kind of serious industrial policy, the United States is once again an exporter of primary products like natural gas, an exporter of energy.
Two more quick points. You’re so right to emphasize that, you know, many people think that NATO exists to defend the West against all, you know, originally against communism, and then now against all these vague, you know, dictators and what have you.
In reality, the NATO exists so that the US military-industrial complex will have an export market because of NATO interoperability considerations. Essentially, when a country joins NATO, they become a captive market for the American military-industrial complex.
But there is one final point I’d like to make. You know, many, many decades ago, a couple of decades, maybe two or three decades ago, Madeleine Albright is supposed to have said, what’s the point of having such a vast and sophisticated army if you don’t get to use it? Because she was saying, you know, we should, of course, we should go to war if we want to, etc.
I’d like to paraphrase her on this. What’s the point of having a $1.5 trillion annually military-industrial complex if it actually cannot produce sophisticated weapons today? As far as technological sophistication is concerned, Russia and even China are further ahead of the United States. They can produce things like hypersonic missiles. They can produce electronic technology to fight wars that is far superior to anything the United States has.
So, this is another really interesting point, which is that the United States today can only get customers for its coddled military-industrial complex, which has become incapable of producing anything decent, when it essentially makes people join NATO and essentially convinces the governments of various countries to act against the interests of those countries. Because every country that is being brought into NATO on the premise that its security is going to increase is actually going to have its security decreased.
First, because, of course, NATO is increasing in security around the world. And second, because in reality NATO is not capable of defending these countries. It has deficient armies, it has deficient industrial and military production, and it has deficient weapons technology.
So, for all of these reasons, and the reason why the Russians and the Chinese are able to surpass the United States in terms of military technology is very simple. Yes, they have also in military industries, but their military industries and their armies are actually devoted to the defense of the country, not devoted to their own expansion for their own reasons. So, that’s another thing that I wanted to mention, that this is really in terms of the trade deficit.
But we also have three more interrelated things to discuss, which is what’s really happened on inflation, what’s really happening to the financial sector and financial stability, and what’s really happening to the budget deficit, and how are all these things interacting.
So, let’s take inflation first. What I’d like to say about inflation is the following. Throughout the last many months, the story has been that the Federal Reserve has managed to create a soft landing. We have vanquished inflation while not being in recession.
Now, Michael and I have already told you how the U.S. economy is doing far less well than you might imagine, and that if you look at the GNI statistics, the Gross National Income statistics, the U.S. economy is in recession. It has had several quarters of declining GNI.
On inflation then, the story that we are being told, the official story, is that the Federal Reserve has performed a miracle. It has achieved a soft landing, it has defeated inflation, and the U.S. economy is not in recession. But the reality of it is that if you go by the GNI figures, the Gross National Income figures, the U.S. is in recession in reality.
And the other problem is that, in fact, it’s quite possible that inflation has not been vanquished, because the fact is that while the more volatile prices, but particularly energy prices, have indeed gone down, at least they are down for the moment, core inflation remains stubbornly high, which is why the Federal Reserve, after talking for so many months about reducing interest rates in 2024, is already beginning to postpone the reduction of interest rates.
So, in that sense, inflation has not gone away as a problem, and this creates massive problems for financial stability to which the widening U.S. budget deficit is making its own contributions, and we’ll talk about that in a minute.
Let’s take a look at financial stability then. The fact of the matter is that we already saw at the beginning of this year that we had a series of failures of American banks, the Silicon Valley Bank and a few other banks failed, and they failed chiefly because of the way in which the Federal Reserve is trying to deal with the problem of inflation.
We’ve already discussed in the past that the problem of inflation cannot be really resolved by raising interest rates. Indeed, one economist, Robert Solow, had essentially referred to the raising of interest rates as a means of dealing with inflation as burning a house to roast a pig. I mean, you don’t need to do that. You are basically creating a lot of destruction.
But nevertheless, the U.S. Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, and this began affecting the financial institutions like Silicon Valley Bank and the other banks that went bust that had relied on the continuation of easy monetary policy.
So, in a certain sense, we are facing the prospect of another financial crisis, which in 2008, also the financial crisis occurred because in the mid-2000s, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates once again because the dollar was falling too low, because commodity prices were rising, and as they brought interest rates up to about 5.25 percent, which is roughly where they are at right now, this was enough to prick the housing and credit bubbles, and you got the 2008 North Atlantic financial crisis as a result.
The new financial crisis has arguably already begun. It already began with the bank failures earlier in 2023, and now we read headlines like this, “Bad property debt exceeds reserves at the largest U.S. banks”. This is a Financial Times story: “Loan provisions have thinned even as regulators highlight risks in commercial real estate markets”.
So, they are showing us these major banks, how many lost reserves they have in relation to loans that have already become delinquent, loans on which payments have already been missed. These are the six largest banks, and except for J.P. Morgan Chase, which has a ratio higher than 1 percent, compared to 2022, in 2023, which is this light blue line, practically every bank has less than one dollar of reserve for every dollar of its exposure to bad loans in the commercial real estate market.
And these sorts of problems are, by the way, not just commercial real estate is just one, but there is also private equity. There are many other asset markets in which trouble is brewing.
And this also goes for the market in U.S. Treasurys:
Because as interest rates go up, the U.S. essentially has to pay a higher rate of interest in order to borrow money on the international market.
And what’s more, over the last many years, the treasury market has been sinking, and it has essentially not got enough buyers. As a result, the Federal Reserve has had to step in in order to prop up the treasury market.
But even then, even with all the support the Federal Reserve is going to get, is giving, you can see here this up to 2023 is the real figures. And then from here on, these are estimates. And you can see that interest costs as a percentage of GDP, the interest costs on U.S. debt are going up and they will contribute to a worsening U.S. budget deficit.
So you see here, interest costs have been just a little above 1 percent for a while, and now they will go up to 2 and 3 and 4 percent. And this is going to brew trouble.
And finally, this is an interesting story that appeared:
Even though the United States budget is in such deep doo-doo, basically, you have the United States government spending more and more money on the military-industrial complex.
We are told that it was, the official story is that it’s worth about $750 billion, three-quarters of a trillion dollars. But studies show that the actual size of military spending in the United States is about $1.5 trillion. That is a huge sum. The total amount of U.S. GDP itself is about %20 trillion. So you can imagine, it’s like about 7 odd percent of U.S. GDP.
So this is the state of the U.S. economy. And so we can expect in the near future to hear finally an official admission of the recession the U.S. is in, continuing inflation, and with continuing inflation, the possibility of the Federal Reserve increases interest rates.
So maybe even if it does not increase interest rates, the possibility of another financial crisis. So this is the sort of cauldron of troubles that is already brewing as the U.S. approaches an election year.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Well, there are a couple of things. Let me go over your charts one by one again. You sort of went very quickly.
When you showed the chart about the banks being in negative equity, this is especially the case for small community banks.
About 30 or 40 years ago, there began to be small community banks. The smaller banks, if you notice, are the ones that are in the most trouble because they’re the ones that have made loans to local businesses, local landlords.
You already have one of the big New York City community banks going broke in the last week, just like you had the Valley National Bank go broke before. What these charts show is that the U.S. financial system in general is in negative equity.
Now, just think of that. If you have a financial system that’s in negative equity, what do you need a financial system for? The whole idea of finance is people are supposed to be abstinent and save rich people and save their money. You remember Karl Marx’s quip that the Rothschilds must be the most abstinent family in Europe because they have so much money.
Well, the fact is that if banks don’t supply money to the economy, but they’re broke and they get all the money from the government, this is just what China’s doing.
Why don’t we just say, okay, money is a public utility?
RADHIKA DESAI: Nationalize the banks.
MICHAEL HUDSON: If it’s a public utility like China, then it’s not going to make this de-industrial real estate kind of property investment.
Now, let’s look at the chart again for the interest rates going up in the U.S. economy:
This has overjoyed Biden, and especially it makes Obama very, very happy. This is Obama’s dream to privatize Social Security. The government is going to say, we have to balance the budget. The Republicans are going to close down Congress, as they’re threatening to do this Friday, by the way, in order to balance the budget. Because the market, the magic of the marketplace, has raised the interest rates.
Between the higher interest rates and the military charges that you just showed, there really isn’t enough money for social spending anymore. But we can do what Margaret Thatcher did to the English economy. We can privatize Social Security. And now all the money that you had for Social Security is not going to be your money anymore. It’ll be, we put it in the hands of the banks that have already driven themselves and then the financial sector into negative equity.
Now they can take your Social Security and drive it into negative equity. That really is the grand plan, to privatize, to treat Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid like the post office. It’s all going to be privatized. That’s the neoliberal plan. And this is not an accident. This is, it’s a feature, not a bug in the economy. And that’s basically the direction we’re going in.
The privatization of finance, instead of doing the obvious thing, if finance is now broke, why not do it? The government can create the money instead of what it’s doing now.
The banks are giving the bad loans and basically they’re putting their assets with the Federal Reserve and borrowing the money to stay in business. You can be in negative equity forever as long as the Federal Reserve, which basically works for the commercial banks as their customers, is creating enough money to subsidize the negative equity for the banks and the financial sector.
What they’re not doing is subsidizing the negative equity of the wage earners, the negative equity as a result of their housing costs, their medical costs.
RADHIKA DESAI: Two things very quickly. And I think we should probably wind down because we are just about a little over an hour here. But just two quick observations that in the 2008 financial crisis, there were many people who were arguing that, yes, there should be a bailout, but not of the banks that caused the financial crisis in the first place, but of the homeowners who were not necessarily at fault. And of course, the economic benefit of bailing out the homeowners would vastly be greater for the good of the American economy than bailing out the banks.
But of course, a government that is beholden to the big financial institutions was not going to do that. And so it did what it did. It bailed out the big banks and not the poor people who lost their homes, who lost their jobs, etc.
The second thing is that, you know, I completely agree with you, Michael, that this is what neoliberal governments have done for many decades now. They essentially want to privatize everything in sight. And of course, by creating a crisis of social security and so on, that’s what they generally do. They first run down any institution, whether it’s social security or any other publicly owned asset, and then they say it’s time to privatize it because that will improve it.
But, you know, I wonder, I wonder if there are not even enough people who can buy U.S. Treasury securities, if the market for Treasury securities is not great, if the big financial institutions are already sitting on mountains of negative equity, where are they going to get the money to buy? Where is going to be the market to buy these assets that the governments are going to privatize?
Because in the history of privatization, there have been many privatizations that have had to be called off because there are not enough buyers. And we may very well be in that situation.
MICHAEL HUDSON: You pose a question, I get to answer it. The answer is they’ll get it from abroad. This is a geopolitical hour after all. Europe’s loss will be America’s gain.
What affluence is flowing in? You could say that since World War II, Europe and America have gained by keeping the prices of raw materials and the global South countries low and keeping the prices of their industrial goods very high.
What you’re seeing today from Europe is, I think, their way of solving the problem you’ve just posed. The bright spot is getting a flow of American, of European companies into the United States, relocating here because they can’t, the European economy is collapsing. You’re having a flow of labor and skilled labor from other countries into the United States. Affluence is this kind of flowing in.
If you’re not producing an economic surplus at home and you want to somehow sustain American living standards and corporate profits, it has to be done externally. It has to be done via foreign countries. And that’s the geopolitical implications of all this.
If America is turning into a deficit, parasitic economy, some other countries have to pay. And that’s why there’s all of this military spending.
RADHIKA DESAI: I would beg to differ, actually, because here’s the thing. The geopolitical economy of the North Atlantic financial crisis was roughly like this, that in the process of deregulation of European financial institutions that came along with the launching of the euro, a lot of European financial institutions ended up outside of North, the United States and Britain, becoming the main customers of the toxic securities that were being generated in the 2000s as a result of the housing and credit bubbles.
Once that bubble burst, once the crash occurred, essentially European money left and it has generally stayed away. And there, as I said, this money is not even available to buy U.S. treasury securities.
If the Europeans invest in the United States, they will be investing in creating new assets. They’re not necessarily going to buy up what the American government necessarily wants to privatize.
And what’s more, in recent decades, recent years, I should say, China and Japan have also been increasingly reluctant to buy treasury securities. So all in all, all I’m trying to say is that it is not a given that these assets, that the old tradition of essentially privatizing things at bargain basement price, even at bargain basement prices, is necessarily going to work. That’s all. I’m just wanting to raise some questions around it.
But so all in all, Michael, I think what we’ve done is we’ve painted a picture of an extremely precarious situation, an extremely dangerous situation in which people are suffering. They are unhappy. They are going to the polls. They are going, they’re being asked to choose between two candidates, both of whom have failed in signal ways. And there is not any simple way out. And so, as I say, it’s going to be a really, really rocky road to the election.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Yep. If you have a democracy, you cannot let people have a vote for the other candidate. That’s what our democratic hero in Ukraine, Zelensky, says, cancel the elections. That’s what’s happening in Israel. Netanyahu, no way of throwing him out.
And that’s what’s happening here. There can’t be a third party. You have to, as long as the Republicans and the Democrats have the same program, just with a different rhetoric, that’s the new meaning of democracy.
RADHIKA DESAI: Well, I think that you’ve said that, said it, Michael. So I think with that, we’ll say goodbye for now. And we look forward to seeing you in a couple of weeks. Thank you and goodbye.
And please remember to like our show and to share it as to other interested people and to subscribe to the channel. Thank you very much and goodbye.
Les unités russes ont pris des positions plus avantageuses sur l’axe d’Avdeïevka, les forces armées ukrainiennes ont perdu près de
L’article L’armée russe continue d’avancer au-delà d’Adveïevka est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Les membres des deux chambres du Parlement, du Cabinet des ministres, les chefs de région, des invités et des journalistes
L’article Vladimir Poutine prononce son discours annuel à l’Assemblée fédérale est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Haiti: shaping the terrain for massive exploitation and extraction of huge hydrocarbon reserves
For GlobalSouth.co by Peter Koenig
Economist, Geopolitical Analyst
26 February 2024
In his recent article “The Destabilization of Haiti: Anatomy of a Military Coup d’Etat“, Professor Michel Chossudovsky memorializes 29 February 2024 as the 20th anniversary of the coup d’État against Haiti’s elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide.
He also describes the military motives for controlling Haiti, namely to destabilize the country and to plunge it into constant chaos. This is precisely what has happened. Haiti is in a constant state of near absolute poverty – by far the poorest country in all Latin America – according to official UN / World Bank indices.
Is there a reason?
As we will see, Haiti is also one of the world’s richest countries, per capita, judged by available natural resources – oil and gas. Discovered before the 2010 earthquake and confirmed by the tremendous 7.0 Richter seism.
Haiti’s Potential Hydrocarbon Deposits
The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA), issued in May 1980 a report under the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (CDCC), describing the likelihood of large oil deposits in the Caribbean, including off-shore of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. (See this) Haiti is also said to have trillions of dollars-worth of off-shore natural gas. (See this)
These discoveries were likely made in the 1970s and 1980s, perhaps earlier, by US satellite imaging. US satellites have mapped the world for hydrocarbon resources already at least 50 years ago. Such information used to be available on internet – no longer.
Brief Haitian History and Background
François Duvalier, also known as Papa Doc, served as the president of Haiti from 1957 until his death in 1971. He was succeeded by his 19-year-old son, Jean-Claude Duvalier, nicknamed “Baby Doc”.
The Duvalier dynasty was an autocratic hereditary dictatorship, indiscriminately killing people who dared interfere with their government style. The dynasty empire lasted almost 29 years, from 1957 until 1986, spanning the rule of the father-and-son duo, François and Jean-Claude Duvalier. Both served the United States’ political and economic interests.
The sociopolitical situation in Haiti deteriorated seriously under the regime of Baby Doc and his powerful wife. In 1986, President Reagon asked Jean-Claude to leave Haiti, so that the US could “help install” a more stable and serious government. In February 1986 Baby Doc fled to France in a US Airforce jet.
The end of the Duvalier dynasty brought hope for “freedom” and democracy to the Haitian people. There was a succession of short-lived Presidents until 1991, when Jean-Bertrand Aristide was first elected in February 1991. His Presidency lasted 234 days, when a brief military government took over.
In the ten years following Mr. Aristide’s first election, the US-supported political turmoil in Haiti, with a succession of Heads of State, during which Mr. Aristide was four times elected President.
His last Presidency started in February 2001 and ended 3 years later, when Mr. Aristide, Haiti’s first democratically elected President, was quietly deposed by a US-guided coup on 29 February 2004 and deported to South Africa, where he presumably still lives in exile. He was discouraged by the US State Department from returning to Haiti.
This coup was planned well in advance, by such unlikely allies, as progressive “socialist” President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – Lula, for short – and George W. Bush, both then Presidents of their respective countries – Brazil and United States.
By now we know that Lula has nothing of progressive, and even less of “socialist” in him. He is and has been totally sold to the usurping west, to Wall Street and the IMF – and that already during his first two terms as President of Brazil, 2003 – 2011.
Both, Lula and Bush are traitors of their countries – but Lula, a make-believe socialist — has deeply betrayed his country during his first two terms, and now, since 1 January 2023, in his third term, but also the people of Haiti.
After associating with Wall Street and the IMF during his first two terms, Lula is again allying with the money brokers – the debt machines, as one may call them.
Toussaint l’Ouverture (1743–1803) Haitian statesman and general
Humiliation of the French and Exceptionalism
Remember – during the French Revolution (1789-99), French black slaves in Haiti launched the Haitian Revolution (1791-1804), led by Toussaint l’Ouverture, a former slave and black general of the French Army. After 12 years of struggle and conflict, Napoleon Bonaparte’s forces were defeated, and on 1 January 1804 Haiti declared her sovereign independence.
Haiti, thus, became the first independent nation of Latin America and the Caribbean, and the first country in the Americas to eliminate slavery. Haiti is the only state in history established by a successful slave revolt. See Wikipedia for more details.
In the 1980s, with close to 200 years of independence (on January 1, 2024 Haiti celebrated 220 years of independence), a black, sovereign, autonomous island in the Caribbean was perceived as a “danger” for the Unted States’ “National Security”. There was already a “Communist Cuba” to deal with just 90 miles (150 km) from the southern Florida border. A black independent, uncontrolled, Haiti was beyond limits for a still racist white US supremacy.
Plus, at that time, Haiti’s riches in petrol and gas were already known to Washington, though, most likely not to Haiti.
Thus, the US, French and Canada ganged up against Haiti’s government to control the island and her riches. Chaos was the modus operandi – and US-induced chaos and crime reign up to this day over Haiti.
What is important to know – that there are no coincidences.
In the 1970’s / 1980s and perhaps up to early 1990s, huge petrol resources were satellite-discovered deep under the sea floor off-shore from Port-au-Prince, Haiti. To get to these resources is expensive. Unless they are brought up closer to the surface – for example by an earthquake, that cracks the tectonic plates, letting pressure bring the oil closer into shallower areas.
The 2010 earthquake was planned for precisely that purpose.
On 12 January 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck Haiti, leaving its capital Port-au-Prince devastated. About 220,000 people were reportedly killed.
Among other aid, the Clinton Foundation was supposed to bring order and development back to Haiti, after the seismic devastation. In fact, the contrary is true. More than ten years later, chaos and crime continue dominating the Haitian part of the island of Hispaniola.
Is there a purpose behind it, other than that the Clinton Foundation enriched itself by the multi-million-dollar donations it received to help restore social and economic order in Haiti?
According to the World Atlas (January 2019), recent findings have confirmed Haiti’s enormous oil and gas reserves. Discoveries show that the nation of Haiti might have some of the largest oil reserves in the world. They are estimated to be potentially larger than those of Venezuela. See this for more details.
This amply explains why the United States will not leave Haiti to her independence. The monetary stakes, the riches are too high.
———
Today, the same Lula, who helped instigate the 2004 coup against President Aristide, is “volunteering” in setting up a UN occupation / security force in Haiti, consisting mainly of Brazilian troops. This military occupation is supposed to bring back order and promote economic development.
They will also prepare the ground – or waters – for massive exploitation and extraction of the huge hydrocarbon reserves. This is the military’s hidden agenda. Of course, not part of the official terms of reference.
May Haiti remember her status of the first independent state in Latin America – and rise again.
These hydrocarbon riches belong to the people of Haiti.
——-
Peter Koenig is a geopolitical analyst and a former Senior Economist at the World Bank and the World Health Organization (WHO), where he worked for over 30 years around the world. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for online journals and is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed; and co-author of Cynthia McKinney’s book “When China Sneezes: From the Coronavirus Lockdown to the Global Politico-Economic Crisis” (Clarity Press – November 1, 2020)
Peter is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).
He is also a non-resident Senior Fellow of the Chongyang Institute of Renmin University, Beijing.
Avdeievka est une ville critique dans le conflit en Ukraine. C’est ce qu’a déclaré la secrétaire de presse de la
L’article “Avdeievka est une ville critique dans le conflit en Ukraine”, selon Washington est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
Le deuxième congrès du mouvement russophile international s’est tenu mardi à Moscou, précédé par le forum sur la multipolarité qui
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Nikolaï Ryjkov, qui a dirigé le gouvernement soviétique de 1985 à 1991, est décédé à l’âge de 95 ans, a
L’article L’ancien Premier ministre de Gorbatchev, Ryjkov, est décédé à 94 ans est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
“The only nation in the world that won a naval war without having a single ship!”
Two of my favorites review the unedifying remains of the day. Some go to art galleries or the beach, listen to music or watch a movie — these two savants relax me. After listening to Smoothie you will understand (1) the reason for supreme calm & confidence of Putin and Medvedev and (2) the panic and verbal enuresis of Macron & Crew.
Last soundbite for the scrapbook:
“NATO is not going to back down, it’s going to dissolve .. unh .. that is the best way of going about it!”
The unity of the Resistance from the river to the sea is not only inspiring from afar, but has yielded practical results for the Palestinians.
By Ganna Eid of Al Mayadeen
Daud Abdullah wrote an erudite and comprehensive analysis of Hamas’s foreign policy which was released by the Afro-Middle East Center (AMEC) in 2020. The majority of the writing was done in 2019, and thus there are a few lacunae based on the last 5 years of world affairs.
On the world scale, the Covid-19 pandemic rocked production, distribution, and public health sectors; the Russian special military operation in Ukraine gave us the first of a series of likely wars in the decline of Atlanticist hegemony. In Palestine, the “Unity Intifada” — also known as Seif Al-Quds battle–highlighted the connectivity of the various Resistance factions within Palestine.
Now, today, Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and its aftermath have changed the regional geometry, with even more unity among all factions of the Axis of Resistance across the region.
I will first analyze some of Abdullah’s policy prescriptions for Hamas based on the world situation in 2020, and then see to what extent these policy prescriptions have been undertaken by the Islamic movement or to what extent they still require action. In this article, three elements of Hamas’s foreign policy stick out to me: their relations with Russia and China, the shifts and reconfigurations of the Axis of Resistance, and finally, Hamas’s ability to politically and diplomatically maneuver after October 7th.
Russian FM Lavrov meets with Hamas politburo members Khaled Meshal and Osama Hamdan, Moscow, circa 2015
The first topic to discuss revolves around Hamas’s relations with Russia and China.
Abdullah’s analysis of Hamas’s relations with Russia and China is one of the most honest, sober, and important analyses I have read in some time. With reference to Russia, Abdullah points out that early on in Hamas’s existence, Russia was willing to break with the iron grip of the Quartet and defend Hamas from the ‘terrorist’ label. Hamas officials and delegates have gone to Moscow on a number of occasions, the latest being in early 2024. At these meetings, Hamas has been treated as a regular political party and a representative of the Palestinians, which has afforded the movement and its leaders meetings with high-ranking officials in Russia, such as Sergey Lavrov.
Yet, the two-headed eagle of Russia stands at a crossroads still. While Ukraine has fallen out of the news cycle, the war is slowing down and there have been some signals of a peace treaty in the near future. Putin–and Russia–understand that the Ukrainian regime are puppets of the imperialists tasked with bringing down the Eurasian superpower, yet this analysis is not extended to “Israel”. Why is this? Is it that a great many “Israeli” citizens are of Russian origin? Is it because Putin, like the double-headed eagle of Russia’s standard, is balancing his role as the post-Soviet liberal statesman and his role as the Eurasianist Hercules whose sword hovers over the Gordian Knot of NATO imperialism? This delicate balancing act will have to come to an end, especially with the carnage wrought by “Israel” and the USA in Gaza today.
Armed Fatah militants reading copies of ‘Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-tung,’ Jordan, 1970
With reference to China, Abdullah does not spare the People’s Republic from criticism of their position vis-a-vis Palestine and Hamas. While China–like Russia–has from the start shielded Hamas from the ‘terrorist’ label, and has treated Hamas as a legitimate governing party, they are involved in their own balancing act.
China has extensive trade relations with the Zionist colony, and uses this along with their recognition of Hamas as a means to try and enter the region as a ‘fair and honest peace broker’. While their brokering of rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia is laudable, China is yet to use their global clout to help isolate and sanction the Zionists. It still clings to the dead and buried ‘two-state’ solution as their official position.
Yet as Abdullah points out, the relationship between the more radical Chinese intelligentsia and the Chinese state is a close one, and one which Hamas should exploit:
As things stand, China’s intelligentsia are increasingly questioning whether the ‘keep a low profile’ policy is fit for purpose in the twenty-first century. In this context, Hamas has nothing to lose and everything to gain by positioning itself to benefit from changes that seem imminent in China’s foreign policy.
The above quote from Abdullah is one with which I agree; Chinese intellectuals, such as Zhang Weiwei and Minqi Li, are theorizing multipolarity and the ongoing fall of US hegemony. The Chinese intelligentsia are also involved in President Xi’s ideological campaigns in the PLA, which aim to politicize the army and involve them further in socialist construction. The growing rift in Sino-US relations is an opportunity for Hamas and the Palestinian national movement.
Hamas’s reconciliation with the Assad government in Damascus is an important development after the two parties had differing stances on the civil war and eventual proxy war in Syria in 2012. This subsequently improved relations between Iran and Hamas, which had suffered after 2012 as well. The ability of Hezbollah, and indeed Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah himself, to orchestrate this reconciliation shows the seriousness and importance of the Arab strategic depth.
A driving force of this reconciliation was the 2021 ‘Unity Intifada’ and the shifts on the ground in the region which have strengthened the Resistance. The 2021 ‘Unity Intifada’ is important for a number of reasons, primarily that the Resistance in Gaza–the liberated land base from which the national liberation struggle is being launched–and the Resistance in the occupied territories went hand-in-hand into battle for the first time since the Hamas-Fatah split in 2007.
The unity of the Resistance from the river to the sea is not only inspiring from afar, but has yielded practical results for the Palestinians. The internal crises of the Zionist colony highlight the contradictory trend: while the Palestinians are uniting after years of division, the Zionists are at each other’s throats. The unity of the Resistance and the disintegration of social relations in the colony continue today, in the midst of Operation Al Aqsa Flood.
Since October 7, Hamas and other Resistance factions inside Palestine (notably PIJ, PFLP, and DFLP) have relentlessly unleashed a guerilla war on the Zionist colony. This has not led to military victories alone; Hamas has the potential to come out of this in a better position diplomatically. As with all things, this depends on the balance of forces. Hamas has insisted that the only end which they see fit in any ‘ceasefire’ is an all-for-all prisoner swap. The magnitude of Palestinian prisoners compared to “Israeli” ones is already a numeric victory if this is to happen, and it seems that the Zionists may have to concede to this because their American masters are attempting to tighten the leash. Yet, why should Hamas stop there? The Ansar Allah forces in Sanaa have shown their willingness to disrupt global trade in support of Palestine.
Hezbollah is showing signs of escalating battles on the northern front, which is not an irrational fear for the Zionists given what happened in 2000 and 2006. So how could Hamas secure a larger victory? If the Resistance is able to enfeeble the Zionists and settle a temporary truce at the 1967 borders, that then increases the size of the land base and improves the logistics for launching a war of total liberation because there will be some territorial contiguity. This would also shift internal developments in Palestine, such as the potential formation of a unity government which gets rid of the comprador elements of Fatah. Indeed, PCPSR polling shows that the corrupt PA is as unpopular as ever.
The potential creation of a unity government then opens diplomatic space for powerful countries like Russia and China to support one democratic state, which they currently do not. As the battle for Palestine rages on, we will indeed see how Hamas’s foreign policy space waxes and wanes. As always, the patient and calculated tenor of the Axis of Resistance will provide us with a beacon toward total liberation.
≈≈
This is a timely article reviewing internal political maneuvering and realigments amongst the Palestinians. In two days, on February 29th, all Palestinian factions are hosted in Moscow in the attempt to create a unity government presenting a common political front.
As oppressors worldwide are in solidarity, a Palestinian calls for solidarity among the oppressed.
By Ganna Eid of Al Mayadeen
In the past decade, whenever there is an uptick in Palestinian revolutionary activity or Zionist aggression, calls come from the USA, Canada, and Western Europe to activate or otherwise recognize historical Black-Palestinian solidarity.
While there are certainly bases for this solidarity, often they are defined in the negative. The argument follows that our common oppressors–the imperialist USA and the Zionist genocidaires–collaborate in repressing our movements through joint police training exercises, weapons trade, colonialism, and criminalization of revolutionaries. This negative solidarity is based on the fact that our oppressors are in solidarity with one another, therefore we must do the same. Undoubtedly true, this argument does not get to the root of the issue.
Which Black people and Black movements are in solidarity with which Palestinian people and movements historically and in the contemporary juncture? The question must be asked again in light of Kenyan President Ruto’s statement in support of “Israel”, other African states’ relations with the colony, and the existence of groups like IBSI, which promote “Black-Israeli” solidarity. The question must be asked again, also, in order to clear the air and answer the fundamental question of politics and war posed by Mao Zedong: “who are our enemies? Who are our friends?”
In this article, I hope to look at concrete examples of Black-Palestinian solidarity, with an eye toward class and nation, which are often erased in the general call for Black solidarity with Palestine. This is done in order to define exactly what Black-Palestinian solidarity has been, is, and what it can be.
In 1964, Malcolm X (Al Hajj Malek El Shabazz) wrote a piece in the Egyptian Gazette, where he detailed the relationship between Zionism and imperialism.
“The Israeli Zionists are convinced they have successfully camouflaged their new kind of colonialism. Their colonialism appears to be more “benevolent” more “philanthropic” a system with which they rule simply by getting their potential victims to accept their friendly offers of economic “aid,” and other tempting gifts, that they dangle in front of the newly independent African nations, whose economies are experiencing great difficulties.”
The Honorable Malcolm X understood the international element of imperialism and its counterpart in the internationalist movements of the day. This statement is particularly true today as the Zionist regime is trying to dangle economic aid in the face of the Malawian government in exchange for migrant farm labor.
Martyr Malcolm continues:
“The number one weapon of 20th-century imperialism is Zionist Dollarism, and one of the main bases for this weapon is Zionist Israel. The ever-scheming European imperialists wisely placed Israel where it could geographically divide the Arab world, infiltrate and sow the seed of dissension among African leaders and also divide the Africans against the Asians.”
The imperialist strategy of “divide and conquer” is present in much of the early Zionist writing, which saw Palestine as the “gate to Africa and bridge to Asia.” The division of Arabs and Africans along racial lines and the conflation of pre-modern slavery in the Islamic world with American chattel slavery is part and parcel of this imperialist strategy.
Although Malcolm X did not live to see the 1967 war and its aftermath, the Black Panther Party took up this mantle of Black anti-Zionism after his martyrdom.
After the 1967 war against the Zionists, the plight of the Palestinians was injected into the consciousness of many anti-colonial groups worldwide. The Black Panther Party (BPP) in the USA made its first statement in support of Palestine in 1970, according to Dr. Greg Thomas.
The statement reads:
“We support the Palestinian’s just struggle for liberation one hundred percent. We will go on doing this, and we would like for all of the progressive people of the world to join in our ranks in order to make a world in which all people can live.”
The BPP was a Marxist-Leninist formation, inspired by the ideas of Juche in the DPRK, as well as other Marxist tendencies of the day. Their ideas of inter-communalism came in part from this revolutionary Marxist understanding, paired with their own revolutionary understanding of being members of the Black nation in the USA. Thomas continues, showing that the BPP was in “daily communication” with the PLO through their office of international affairs in revolutionary Algiers.
The Panthers’ second statement in 1974 not only called for a Zionist retreat to pre-67 borders but also called for a form of revolutionary inter-communalism and a “people’s republic of the Middle East.” Indeed, many Palestinian and Arab revolutionaries share this vision of a region liberated from Zionism, colonialism, and imperialism.
While revolutionary Black organizations after the Panthers continued to support Palestine vocally, the realities of COINTELPRO and mass incarceration have had a profound impact on the organization and scale of Black resistance inside this country. From his cell in “Ramon” prison, PFLP Secretary-General Ahmad Sa’adat highlights the prison as a tool of the oppressors and a site of struggle for the oppressed:
“From Ansar to Attica to Lannemezan, the prison is not only a physical space of confinement but a site of struggle of the oppressed confronting the oppressor. Whether the name is Mumia Abu-Jamal, Walid Daqqa or Georges Ibrahim Abdallah, political prisoners behind bars can and must be a priority for our movements.”
This statement by Sa’adat is written as part of the introduction to a new printing of Huey Newton’s book Revolutionary Suicide. Sa’adat continues in his introduction, stating that the message and necessity of the Black Panthers is still alive today with mass incarceration and police violence coloring the relationship between the police and the Black masses in America. While movements such as Cooperation Jackson exist today – headed by the Malcolm X Grassroots Movement and some former leaders of the Black Liberation Army – we cannot help but call for a rejuvenation and reuniting of revolutionary Black forces in this country after years of repression.
We must renew the calls for a Republic of New Afrika in the Black Belt as one possible solution to the political necessities of ending the settler colonial entity of the United States. Max Ajl comments in his response to Patrick Wolfe’s work on settler colonialism that “Palestinians from Hamas to the PFLP to Islamic Jihad are using land from which they forced settlers, as the physical land-base for an armed nationalist struggle.”
So while we Palestinians can and must learn from and collaborate with revolutionary Black movements worldwide, we must also shine as a beacon of light on the other side of the revolutionary field of action. Our liberation is incomplete without the liberation of Africa and the Black masses of the Americas.
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