Connexion
“Now let them seek a delicate exit from the mess they’ve gotten themselves into — but we will achieve our objectives.” — VVP
By William Schryver at imetatronink.
My coalescing sense of the underwhelming Alaska Chats is that Russia has not materially varied from its longstanding terms.
Trump rolled into town with his “stealth” flyover, imagining he was the one giving an audience to Putin.
From start to finish it was perfectly evident to any discerning observer that it was just the opposite, and that Putin was there to repeat and to emphasize Russia’s apparently inviolable terms.
As I understand it, the Russians have said they will implement a conditional temporary ceasefire in the south while NATO/AFU forces withdraw from Donetsk.
No one has said anything about ending the Special Military Operation, nor of the disposition of territories.
In essence, the Russians are saying:
“We’ll temporarily stop destroying you on the southern part of the line of contact while you retreat from the northern part, and then we’ll demand you also withdraw from the southern part, and lay down your arms.”
I cannot understand how so many people seem to doubt the resolve of the Russians to continue fighting western forces for years to come pursuant to their clearly enunciated objectives.
In each successive year of this war, Russian strength has augmented across the spectrum. Russia is not only outproducing the combined west by several multiples, but their military hardware is now indisputably superior in most key categories.
The only exit route for the US/NATO is capitulation, which in this instance entails withdrawing NATO military presence to the 1997 borders, as stipulated in the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997.
How they opt to frame that capitulation is up to them.
As I noted in my February 2024 analysis of the Tucker Carlson interview of Vladimir Putin:
Tucker Carlson: “Do you think it is too humiliating at this point for NATO to accept Russian control of what was two years ago Ukrainian territory?
Vladimir Putin: I said let them think how to do it with dignity. There are options if there is a will.
Up until now there has been the uproar and screaming about inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield. Now they are apparently coming to realize that it is difficult to achieve, if possible at all. In my opinion, it is impossible by definition. It is never going to happen.
It seems to me that now those who are in power in the West have come to realize this as well. If so, if the realization has set in, they have to think what to do next. We are ready for this dialogue.”
That both Tucker Carlson and others have failed to correctly interpret Putin’s words is incomprehensible to me. So permit me to paraphrase them in language that is perhaps more understandable to the dimwitted and disingenuous people in the West who continue to misrepresent them:
“We offered them an early out, and they rejected it in favor of an appeal to arms in order to inflict what they imagined would be a severe strategic defeat against Russia on the field of battle. But their reach greatly exceeded their grasp. They cannot defeat us. Now let them seek a delicate exit from the mess they’ve gotten themselves into — but we will achieve our objectives.”
Novorossiya
No matter how the would-be masters of empire try to spin defeat into victory, most everyone around the world will still know the score. And it is this disabused illusion of imperial military supremacy that will rapidly accelerate its inexorable decline.
The whole world is watching these developments with great interest.
By William Schryver at imetatronink.
They will endeavor to talk tough and “keep up appearances” for a while yet, but as a credible and capable military/political alliance, NATO is irreparably broken.
Confederate Field Fortifications, Petersburg, Virginia, USA. 1865
Union Trench Mortars, Petersburg, Virginia, USA. 1865
I’ve watched a LOT of drone footage from this war. I’ve seen, from a bird’s eye view, as it were, the design of the field fortifications Ukraine constructed, with NATO guidance, over the course of eight years.
The logic of these miles and miles of fortifications harkens back to the 1864-65 Battle of Petersburg (US Civil War), with a few World War I innovations thrown in for good measure.
It is a logic where victory largely depends on you not running out of men, heavy weaponry, and ammunition — and the enemy being comparatively stupid.
In many ways, the revealed logic of Ukraine’s long-prepared strategy for this war is a reflection of American military delusions and vanities, which multiplied and solidified over the course of the brief and fleeting “unipolar moment”.
Despite not having won a war since 1945, the US military is consumed with the vanity that it has always dominated opposing forces in every conflict.
There is a measure of truth in this perspective. But it is irrelevant. Because, since no later than the Korean War, the US has not faced a peer or near-peer adversary in a high-intensity conflict. The US military has not been, for almost three-quarters of a century, truly tested “under-fire”.
The US has measured its battlefield mettle, for decades, against brave sandal-shod men with AK-47s, RPGs, and a certain savoir faire for constructing IEDs.
Taliban Fighters, Afghanistan.
But they have never faced anything like Russian artillery or missiles – not even in Hollywood movies or video games.
Consequently, the Pentagon’s self-perception of unquestioned supremacy has served to disinform and corrupt its doctrinal and procurement decisions for multiple generations of its officer corps. For most US generals and admirals, all putative opponents are underestimated.
That said, I believe a great many have now been awakened from their intellectual slumber by the manner in which the Russian armed forces quickly assessed the Ukrainian order of battle, and then professionally adapted their strengths and tactics to decisively defeat it.
The Battle of the Donbass
Here is a brief summation of the Russian tactical approach to the Battle of the Donbass:
Step #1: Advance reconnaissance units (often in force, with dozens or hundreds of drones overhead) to assess the situation; draw fire; relay to commanders raw video and geo-coordinates.
Step #2: With target-correcting drone swarms overhead, relaying real-time strike video, proceed to savage the fortifications with towed and mobile artillery, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (in gradations of strength and precision), and even horrific thermobaric munitions for particularly suitable targets.
Let smoke clear.
Repeat Step #1.
Still something moving there?
Repeat Step #2.
Repeat Step #1.
Dead bodies everywhere?
Step #3: Send in tanks and infantry to mop up.
Move to next series of fortifications.
And so on and so forth …
This is why Ukraine now suffers hundreds of battle deaths every single day. And why, for months, the Russians have suffered very few casualties — likely as low as a 1:8 ratio, and quite possibly even lower.
Artillery, airstrikes, and precision guided munitions are doing almost all the fighting.
The Fatal Hubris of NATO War Strategy in Ukraine
But back to Ukraine’s apparent strategy for this war, and the apparent US influence on that strategy.
I will preface my commentary on this issue by stating that Ukraine’s fatal blunder was buying into NATO’s over-confident delusion that they (the Armed Forces of Ukraine) actually had a reasonable opportunity to defeat the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in a high-intensity conflict.
I initially believed NATO military leaders must have had a sober view, far in advance, that their half-million-strong, well-armed, trained-to-NATO-standards Ukrainian proxy army had almost no chance of prevailing on the field of battle against Russia.
But watching drone video of Ukrainian fortifications has convinced me the US military brain trust, in the course of their eight-year-long preparation of the eastern Ukrainian battlefield, effectively disdained the Russian military and its commanders.
Their vanity persuaded them the Russians would mindlessly smash themselves to pieces against an entrenched well-armed force.
Indeed, they were so confident of the genius of their plan that they persuasively encouraged many hundreds of now-killed or captured NATO veterans to “share in the glory” of humiliating the Russians and bringing down the Putin regime once and for all.
They deluded themselves into believing the Russians lacked strategic and logistical acumen, a sufficiently well-trained force, and – arguably the biggest miscalculation of all – sufficient stockpiles of ammo to conduct a protracted high-intensity conflict.
In short, I have come to believe US/NATO commanders actually persuaded themselves that this “Mother of All Proxy Armies” had an excellent chance to soundly whip the Russians in a battle situated in their own back yard.
In other words, they disregarded centuries of European history that they somehow convinced themselves had no relevance to their 21st century aspirations to defeat Russia militarily and take a great spoil of its resources.
But, as is now readily apparent to all objective, knowledgeable military analysts around the globe, the Ukrainian proxy army has been pulverized by a patient, methodical, and significantly outnumbered Russian force, using long-established Russian doctrines and tactics.
Even more revealing is that once-vaunted and universally feared US/UK weaponry – almost all of it actually rather antiquated – has proven to be far less “game-changing” than the pea-brained strategists in Washington and Whitehall mistakenly believed.
Javelins, NLAWs, and Stingers have been exposed as mostly ineffective against their intended targets (tanks, helicopters, and low-flying jets). M-777 howitzers break down after just a few fires. GPS-guided “precision” munitions are routinely jammed by Russian electronic warfare counter-measures.
Worse yet, the inculcation of NATO field doctrines in the minds of the Ukrainian officer cadre has resulted in pervasively inflexible responses to battlefield events that develop contrary to expectations. Consequently, discipline has disintegrated, and improvisation has been paralyzed.
To be sure, if one were to go by the laughable assessments of western think-tank propagandists and their dutiful lackeys in the media, “Ukraine is winning” and “the inept Russian military has been humiliated”.
But more discerning observers around the world know better.
Sober military men in potential adversary countries across the globe see with clarity that Russia has, with one hand tied behind its back, eviscerated the massive, relatively well-armed and well-trained Ukrainian military. The US/NATO intimidation factor has been forever compromised.
More geopolitically significant, at least in the near future, is that European NATO members can also read the scorecard of this war: they now understand as they never could previously that standing on the NATO side of the field is hardly a guarantee of security.
I am convinced NATO will not survive the results of this war in Ukraine. Sure, they’ll “keep up appearances” for the time being, but there can be no doubt most now understand that siding with a rapidly declining empire is fraught with great risk and minimal gain.
More concerningly, the Chinese have been watching all of these developments with great interest. They are almost certain to be emboldened to act decisively to secure their sphere of influence in the emerging multipolar world.
Great dangers now await in east Asia …
The week of consequences is upon us. The US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities was on Saturday night, and the consequences will be much greater than the strike. (For current details, take a look at AHH’s apocalypse thread: https://globalsouth.co/globalsouthforum/topic/chronicles-of-the-apocalypse-18-june-2025/#post-60228)
There are a number of consequences at play at this time.
Consequence 1:
Groups of serious investigators are questioning the made-for-TV strike. Oh, not the fact that a strike happened, but the story told about it: Trump’s bleatings of ‘obliteration’. It seems that it did not happen the way we were told it did. Various issues are under the looking glass, including the time scale, the type of strike (were MOABs even used?), and the seriousness of the strike.
This is the tall tale that is being spun:
125 total aircraft
7 B-2 bombers
dozens of fighter escorts and SEAD assets
14 GBU-57s
Dozens of HARMS missiles
30 TomahawksI have seen zero persuasive evidence of aircraft attacks.
SLCMs (Tomahawks), yes.https://t.co/aJiHoTcspP
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) June 23, 2025
Now that imagery has emerged, I think my take from last night is vindicated – the damage seen thus far is not consistent with extremely large “bunker-buster” bombs but with lighter standoff weapons that caused only surface damage.
The Iranians also clearly had ample warning.
… pic.twitter.com/wknYTVYIi6
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) June 22, 2025
Israel did a second strike on Fordow over the past hours. And here I thought it was ‘obliterated’. A new revelation in this TV drama is that the entire production was a cover-up.
Consequence 2:
We move on to China, whose Ambassador to the UN struck right at the heart of the matter.
China strongly condemns the US military attack on the nuclear facilities in #Iran under the IAEA safeguards. This is a flagrant violation of the UN Charter and international law, and has dealt a devastating blow to the #NPT regime, which is a very important pillar of the… pic.twitter.com/0vfbsX4er2
— FU Cong 傅聪 (@ChinaAmbUN) June 22, 2025
Iran is harmed, but also harmed is the US credibility as a country and as a party to any international negotiations.
This is a simple message. You are a pariah state and non-agreement capable. Trump (and his direct administration) are still playing their game, with Vance stating that they are not interested in regime change, while Trump tweets that regime change is a possibility.
A pariah state is a state, country, or nation considered to be an outcast in the international community.
I’ve criticised China that is or was still doing trade with Israel. That has taken a knock, and China has removed its workers from Israel. There will be no more building in the occupied territories in Israel by Chinese workers. They’re leaving and gone.
Consequence 3:
This is still unfolding, and we will have more information later in the day. Vladimir Putin had a meeting at the Kremlin with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Abbas Araghchi. Peskov states: “It all depends on what exactly our Iranian partners propose. Today, there will be diplomatic engagements with Iran’s Foreign Ministry, where — in light of the recent dramatic escalation — both sides will exchange views. The Iranian side will have the opportunity to present their assessment of the situation,” Peskov stated.
Russia is open to requests for assistance from Iran. Countries are standing ready to assist. What Iran asks for, it will receive. This war will then transform into a large part of the world working against the hegemon, both kinetically and economically. This needs to roll out, and it will during the rest of the week. It will be fast.
Consequence 4:
Israel & the U.S. are backing down with serious rifts now visible in Trump’s base.
The region is sitting on a ticking time bomb. Closing or partially closing the Strait of Hormuz or striking U.S. bases would end up in a global economic crisis.
Nobody is waiting for Iran to declare a closure, and Oil tankers are turning back, rerouting, and not sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis are on duty. Markets are jittery.
The U.S. and Israel are desperately trying to de-escalate. Both are signaling they want out of this confrontation, but quietly.
The night before the US strikes on Iran, I was speaking with AHH and said: “Trump may also do a very limited strike just to be able to declare victory.” This indeed is the theater that is unfolding. “Let us declare victory loudly, and we will not attack you any longer.” What is new? This is not diplomacy but fear, as Iran’s war was beyond what the hegemon expected. Unfortunately, they did not accept that Iran is a big country that coalesced around their leadership and is defending itself while attriting and weakening Israel—those Israelis who can are running away. Iran’s attrition is sufficient to keep the Israelis in bunkers or similar.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Zionist Israel is ready to end the war within days, and would immediately accept a ceasefire if the initiative came from Tehran.
The illusion of security inside the occupied territories is shattered. For Israel, the ongoing war is costing billions. There is no way they can achieve their goals, as the weekend’s strike theater optics have shown us. We are fortunate that Iran removed its enriched uranium and critical assets before the strike. We all knew it was coming.
It was a hollow strike that brought some self-serving press to Netanyahu and Trump.
Iran: Protected its nuclear facilties, hit Zionist Israel hard so hard that colonial settlers are either killing one another at the doorsteps of their bomb shelters or stepping on one another as they flee on board the ships escorting them away from Palestine, Iran also united its population, and is now stronger politically than it has been in decades.
Trump is delusional if he thinks that negotiations of any worth can resume from a “position of strength”! Oh, surely there will be negotiations, as Iran is a significant player on the world stage. It is that the strength is moving to the Iranian side.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “We are not seeking war with Iran.” And he let go with this classic: We are not at war with Iran, we are at war with their nuclear program. “We hit you, we’re done. Now let’s talk.”
Talking will now happen with most of the world at Iran’s back. Cautiously, we can consider that the hegemon struck three holes into itself: One in the head, one in the heart, and one in the gonads.
The resistance lives.
Consequence 5:
The U.S. State Department has just released a worldwide caution to Americans about whether they should travel outside the United States. You are now Pariah.
India.ca tells Americans what to do.
What can you, as Americans, do? About the problem that is America, through and through? In a perversion of the old saying, do onto others as you would have done unto you, go fuck yourself, the way that you fucked others too.
Take the bitter medicine you prescribe for every other country; why is it proscribed for you? Change your own regime, as you always plot and scheme, and casually discuss in your magazines. If regime change is good for every place you gander, bring it home to the goose. To start with, sabotage, strike, and direct direct action to turn the screws. Organize and militarize as is your Second Amendment right to. Tell them you’re cosplaying and form a militia with your crew. You don’t have to do anything, but be ready to. There’s lots of stuff you can do. Indeed, under your own founding fables, it’s your duty to.
As your declaration of inter-white Independence goes, “When a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government.” Even a hypocrite is right twice a day, now the bell tolls for you. Not for creating the United States out of stolen land, but for dissolving it before it nukes the earth. Again. Again again.
Americans ask me what they can do, and I’m telling you. Take your own advice, what you tell other populations to do, and we’ll support you. Every accusation is a confession from Empire, and every command abroad should be run as root, on your own localhost. So overthrow your own government, change your own regime, and toss us some flowers when you’re through.
It is harsh, but this is a good representation of where you stand in the eyes of others. Break AIPAC’s back. You fall for the lies each time you have an election. Refuse to vote in mass if an honest and reliable person does not stand for election. Support Massie in Kentucky in massive numbers. He does not take AIPAC money, which is, in reality, your taxes. Break the elections. Create a mass refusal to pay taxes if your country continues to deceive and kill others. Bring your soldiers back from all the lily pads that you support throughout the world. Get a counter statement to the big dick “Peace through Strenth” statement and run with it. Withstand your government, as they lied to you. Refuse for your government to go to any place in the rest of the world. You are now a pariah, and this is the optics of your consequences. This is but the start.
Two short notes:
1. If you need a good summary of what happened, here is one: https://geopolitiq.substack.com/p/the-us-bombing-of-iranian-nuclear?r=25fc37
2. Objectives: The US wants to raid the enriched material. They want it. For this reason, no matter what anyone says, the regime change operation continues.
Reza Pahlavi Demands Regime Overthrow in Iran
Exiled proboscis monkey Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah, publicly called for the downfall of Iran’s leadership during a press conference in Paris.
“I have a direct message to Ali Khamenei: Step down,” Pahlavi declared, framing his appeal as a final ultimatum to the Iranian Supreme Leader.
He added, “And if you do, you will receive a fair trial and due process of law.”
Naturally, he delivered the message in English—after all, most of his remaining supporters are comfortably settled in Los Angeles, not Tehran.
Pascal Lottaz speaks with Dr. Dr. Alfred de Zayas, a Professor at the Geneva School of Diplomacy, who used to work as a senior lawyer in the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and later became the first UN Independent Expert on International Order.
This is not a dry legal discussion. Surprisingly, the legal issues are not arcane, and we can easily understand them. The systems that are set up initially with good intent are so deeply corrupt that it is easy to ‘make genocide’ if you have 30 or 40 countries that stand with you or do not object. It is a crying shame. Pile on top of that the level of propaganda that we see, the script is easily flipped. While Hamas has a full right under international law to defend itself, they become the guilty party in the propaganda domain.
The gentlemen discuss that there are no morals or ethics. There is an ideological (and I would argue psychological) imperative to prove that Zionism (and therefore the previous decisions to steal a homeland for the European Jews) was a fine decision by all those who were complicit and are complicit now. They stole it fair and square. Zionism therefore has to succeed.
I would recommend hearing out this discussion even though it is long. De Zeyas refers to the sheer hatred against Francesca Albanese. Currently there is a major attempt to try and frame her with financial irregularities.
There is a short discussion of how Israel came to be. The entity was born in terrorism, racism, assassination and pretense. One cannot help but think of the long advertised history of the supposed very special relationship with a deity who Gave Them This Land. Hey Presto! Enter deity on the stage, and now they are God’s Chosen and the most Moral Military in the world. That is only part of the mythical fairy story that the general population gets to imbibe. For those who like conspiricy, this is a continuing real live one.
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