Connexion
Pravin Sawhney of FORCE Magazine clarifies & discloses a number of agreements, undercurrents & commitments which are not commonly discussed.
Six Observations:
War is Not An Option
A triangular security matrix comprising India, Pakistan and China adds to India’s vulnerability
By Pravin Sawhney at FORCE Magazine.
Heated debates are happening in television studios after the terrorists’ attack in Pahalgam on April 22. Senior veterans, much sought after by TV anchors, are the flavour of the moment, with some running from one studio to another offering advice on how the government should punish Pakistan for its dastardly act. Four assumptions have been made: Pakistan is behind the attack; it is a bilateral India-Pakistan matter; defeating Pakistan military in war would be a walk in the park; and the Narendra Modi government with the reputation of being the strongest one since Independence will not let Pakistan get off the hook without genuine retribution for its heinous act.
Cutting short his visit to Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister Modi returned to India and convened a meeting with his top security team comprising the defence minister, national security advisor, chief of defence staff and the three services’ chiefs at his residence on April 29. Photograph of the meeting was released to the media with Modi’s message that he had given a free hand to the three services to decide the time, place and quantum of response to Pakistan. This event, the experts said, was an indication that India would not let Pakistan go unpunished.
Subsequently, news was leaked that Modi met the navy and air force chiefs separately at his residence on two consequent days. With this news, the choice of reprisal narrowed down to action by the air force and the navy. While various scenarios were discussed with visuals and war gaming models displayed on television raising hopes of punishing Pakistan for the emotionally charged nationalist viewers, most expert veterans from the army did not rule out options on the Line of Control (LC). Moreover, the news that the Union home ministry has issued an advisory to all border states to carry out civil defence action drills needed to protect people from Pakistani air strikes reinforced the belief of an early kinetic war.
Meanwhile, heightened action on the LC by both sides started after the Pahalgam killings. Increased small arms firing leading to perhaps an end of the ceasefire by India is expected. Long range artillery fires and even raids (where enemy posts are attacked by special forces) by both sides, which have been a norm in earlier decades, might come back soon. While all such activities are manageable to keep an escalation in check, they are unlikely to satisfy most Indians who have great expectations from Modi, seen as a strong leader.
Strangely, two important issues were missed by the media, both print and electronic. The first was that after India removed Articles 370 and 35A from Jammu and Kashmir, downgraded the state to two union territories of J&K and Ladakh, and printed new maps showing Aksai Chin under China as a part of Ladakh UT, the traditional India-Pakistan binary ended. Instead, a triangular security matrix comprising India, Pakistan and China emerged with negative security implications for India. The evidence of this was the repeated statement and pronouncement by all Chinese leaders after 5 August 2019 that China will support Pakistan’s territorial integrity and security. This was particularly significant when China after a telephonic call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, following the Pahalgam incident, released a statement quoting Wang Yi reiterating China’s support to Pakistan’s sovereignty.
The triangular security relationship was formed after 5 August 2019, when Pakistan’s then prime minister and army chief went to China to consult with their strategic ally. In a personal meeting, China’s President Xi Jinping advised army chief, Gen. Qamar Bajwa to focus on connectivity and development for Pakistan’s progress. Thereafter, Xi took it upon himself to discuss Pakistan’s security issues with India. Thus, in October 2019, Xi met up with Prime Minister Modi at the second informal summit in Chennai and suggested triangular peace between India, Pakistan and China. Modi did not accept Xi’s suggestion.
Given this, no one should doubt that in case of India-Pakistan war, China will help Pakistan in at least five ways, without showing its hand. However, before we get to that, there are three reasons why China will not enter the fray with its full war capabilities (kinetic and non-kinetic): its non-kinetic capabilities are enough to tilt balance in hot war between India and Pakistan in Islamabad’s favour; China will not do anything to jeopardise its strategic narrative of peaceful rise at time when the world in undergoing momentous geopolitical changes; and a war with India would freeze bilateral relations for at least a decade. This is something that Beijing would not do until it decides to reclaim its territories (Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh) from India.
Let’s briefly see how China can help Pakistan with its non-kinetic capabilities. One, the PLA with heightened grey zone activities on LAC would ensure that the Indian Army’s and the Indian Air Force’s limited combat assets get divided with very little left for the Pakistan front. Two, in the India-Pakistan war theatre, the PLA will provide Pakistan military with round the clock battlefield watch, military keyholes of Baidu satellite system for accurate targeting for Pakistan missiles, and real time Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Three, Pakistan military, unlike the Indian military, would have regular supply of ammunitions, missiles, spares and critical assembles for war surge for salvo firing at intense rates. Four, given its huge cyber and non-kinetic anti space assets, China can, without being accountable, bring civilian life to a standstill across India. The experience gained by undertaking large cyber-attacks amounting to cyber war would help the PLA with the first mover advantage in this war against its peer competitor, the US military. And five, China has ships in the region capable of cutting subsea internet cables that come into India. India does not have any ships for internet laying and repairs.
Thus, not only will the next India-Pakistan war not end favourably for India. But there is a possibility of India losing territory in Kashmir. To top it all, India will lose its standing in its neighbourhood with small nations of South Asia, which are already onboard China’s Belt and Road Initiative, tilting decisively in Beijing’s favour.
The other issue underplayed by the analysts and media is Modi government’s track record on national defence since 2014. A fast learner, Modi has learnt from the Vajpayee government that doing full mobilisation for war without political will to fight with Pakistan gets egg on one’s face. Without much thought and adequate war appreciation, Prime Minister Vajpayee ordered full mobilisation within four days of terrorists’ attack on Indian Parliament on 13 December 2001. It was hoped that Pakistan’s ruler Gen. Musharraf would either get coerced by mobilisation of 1.2 million strong Indian army. Or he would be pressurised by US President George Bush to end his proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir. Nothing of the sort happened. Much like the present Pakistan army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, Musharraf turned belligerent and started test firing its ballistic missiles. Thus, after 10 months of military standoff, Vajpayee had to find a face saver to demobilise the army, which suffered loss of men due to mine accidents, funds and equipment owing to wear and tear, with nothing real to show. The face saver was provided by a retired army chief, General V.P. Malik, who declared that all objectives of the mobilisation had been met. Never mind that in May 2002 after the terrorists’ attack on Kaluchak military camp, tempers ran so high on both sides that Vajpayee’s National Security Advisor had to seek his US’ counterpart’s help to calm things down in Pakistan.
FORCE Magazine is an 80-page monthly print magazine (with an Internet edition www.forceindia.net) on national security: defence, homeland and civil aerospace. It started in August 2003 with an edition dedicated to Indian Army operations on the Line of Control with Pakistan.
Featured Image: Indira Gandhi Memorial Tulip Garden, Jammu and Kashmir,
The Kashmir issue is one of the oldest and most complex conflicts in modern history, with a prolonged dispute between India and Pakistan over the contested region of Kashmir. This region, suffering under Indian occupation, endures daily hardships for its defenseless people, who seek their right to self-determination and peaceful living. Despite international promises and agreements that were supposed to lead to a just resolution, the suffering of the people of Kashmir under Indian occupation continues.
Since 1947, when India gained independence from British colonial rule, the Kashmir issue has remained unresolved. With the onset of Indian occupation in the region, Kashmiris have endured an oppressive policy marked by violence, displacement, and restrictions on their basic rights.
One of the most prominent forms of oppression faced by the people of Kashmir is the systematic violence perpetrated by the Indian army against civilians. Kashmir suffers from severe human rights violations, with locals subjected to arbitrary arrests and torture, and being denied their fundamental rights, such as freedom of expression and assembly. Indian forces use excessive force to disperse peaceful protests, resulting in many martyrs and casualties. Additionally, strict security blockades prevent humanitarian aid and international relief from reaching the population.
What hurts the most in this conflict is the international community’s disregard for the tragedy of Kashmir. Despite numerous UN resolutions affirming the Kashmiris’ right to self-determination, India continues to ignore these resolutions and persist in violating the rights of the indigenous population. In recent years, further repressive measures have been taken, such as the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in 2019, which granted Kashmir autonomy, further increasing the suffering of the local population and escalating tensions.
This Indian policy has not only prolonged the suffering of the people of Kashmir but has also led to a deterioration of the humanitarian situation in the region. India has imposed restrictions on press freedom and attempted to curb coverage of the situation in Kashmir, making it difficult for the world to know the truth of what is happening there. Furthermore, the Indian government has continued efforts to alter the demographic makeup of Kashmir by encouraging Indian settlers to move to the region, which the people of Kashmir see as part of India’s attempts to forcibly change the identity of the region.
The suffering of the people of Kashmir is not limited to military occupation but also includes political and economic marginalization. The region has been deprived of social and economic progress due to Indian policies aimed at weakening its local population. At the same time, India’s exploitation of Kashmir’s natural resources has continued to benefit India, while the Kashmiris suffer from poverty and unemployment.
In conclusion, the suffering of the people of Kashmir under Indian occupation is not just a territorial dispute, but a humanitarian issue that requires urgent international intervention. The world’s silence on this tragedy reflects an unjust complicity in ignoring the Kashmiri people’s rights to self-determination and a free and dignified life. There must be effective global action to lift the injustice from Kashmir and its people, ensuring just and lasting solutions that respect their rights and lead to peace in the region.
Cooperation between Kashmir and Iran
After the victory of the Islamic Revolution, Iran began to show increasing support for the Kashmir issue, especially in international forums. This support was not only political but also extended to cultural and religious backing. Iran was one of the main supporters of the Kashmir cause in various international organizations, particularly in the United Nations. This stance endeared Iranians to many Kashmiris, who saw in Iran’s support and its leader a genuine Islamic spirit striving to bring justice to an oppressed people.
The Revolutionary Spirit of Kashmir
Despite the differences in geographical and political circumstances, many Kashmiri youth were influenced by the revolutionary ideas of Imam Khomeini. They were inspired by his message of resisting oppression and tyranny, which motivated many of them to participate in protests against Indian occupation. Imam Khomeini’s views on the role of youth in changing the situation and guiding the Islamic nation played a significant role in encouraging the Kashmiri generation to engage in political movements, whether through peaceful protests or armed confrontations against the occupying forces.
Conclusion
Imam Khomeini had a profound impact on the people of Kashmir through his political and religious message. Since Kashmir has long suffered from oppression and occupation, its people found inspiration and hope in Imam Khomeini’s ideas for achieving independence and justice. This influence was not only political but also cultural and religious, making Kashmir a part of the “Khomeini Revolution,” which transcended the borders of Iran to reach the hearts of Muslims around the world, including in Kashmir.
From the Hoopoe Platform
Welcome to “Ruler of the World” does Wonderland – to the sound of that hypnotic ‘Kashmir’ riff.
By Pepe Escobar at Strategic Culture Foundation.
Two overarching taboos reign on the – now shattered – collective West:
The taboos happen to be inextricably linked to the Forever Wars deployed non-stop by the Empire of Chaos/Zionist axis.
Lesser Hybrid Wars though – even carrying the horrifying prospect of turning nuclear – are allowed to come and go. Especially if they are part of the current war on BRICS, a sub-section of the war of factions of the West against the Global Majority.
So let’s go to Kashmir – to the sound of Jimmy Page’s hypnotic riff. Both India and Pakistan are escalating the war of decibels. Turkey is offering weapons – to Pakistan. Iran offered a mediator role: no takers.
The motive for the war is as dodgy as they come. An all-male tourist bus packing a bunch of merry tourists is roaming around Indian-held Kashmir. Passengers include a just married 26-year-old lieutenant of the Indian Navy – but without his wife (what kind of honeymoon is that?) Another passenger is Nepalese. The bus is attacked by shady splinter goons loosely affiliated with the Salafi-jihadi Lashkar-e-Taiba outfit.
The Empire has been all over the Indian front. The current US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard was previously fully funded by Prime Minister Modi’s circles. Eyeliner-loaded VP J.D. Vance recently visited India – complete with family Taj Mahal photo op. Then Modi went to visit Saudi Arabia – invited by MbS. After the Kashmir bus terror attack, Hindutva fanatics went on a cyber-attack spree.
The crude tactics spell out classic Divide and Rule. Double whammy: revamped weaponization of India, and destabilization of a key Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) China front: the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). A thing of beauty: splitting BRICS from the inside.
None of that, of course, legitimizes the ghastly Pakistani military, which have thrown in jail, on spurious charges, the man who was trying to bring Pakistan to respectability: Imran Khan.
It’s up, once again, to the adults in the room, any room – Russia – to de-escalate. This could be ideally performed inside the SCO – where both India and Pakistan are members, side by side with Iran. Moscow chose to take the initiative, by itself.
Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko met with both India’s Ambassador to Russia, Vinay Kumar, and Pakistan’s Ambassador to Russia, Muhammad Khalid Jamali.
Russian terminology is essential: not only there was a call for both parties to “engage in constructive dialogue”. Moscow stressed, “we are ready to counter the global terrorist threat together.” The operative word is “global”. Delhi and Islamabad don’t seem to be getting the message – yet.
Kashmir as a volatile war lab
An infernal machine is predictably on. It’s as if the Anglo-Zionist axis is using Kashmir as a volatile lab for a series of live tests – including pushing nuclear powers to the brink of confrontation. And all that dealt with casual insouciance – practically as a sideshow.
Nothing coming from Sültan Erdogan and his intel apparatus could possibly be seen as trustworthy. In Syria, the MIT’s assets – the Headchopper Inc. congregated in Greater Idlibistan – ended up being installed in power in Damascus with their Zionist-friendly gang leader now posing as President.
The comprador Yankee junta in Islamabad, for its part, may be facing the abyss – which in itself qualifies as auspicious news. In parallel, suspense accrues on whether Modi will show up for the Victory Day parade on May 9 in Moscow – and what he will tell his Russian hosts.
BRICS members Russia and Iran want the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) running smoothly to India sooner rather than later. The game gets even more complex when we see that the Iranian investigation is finally starting to consider that the horrendous explosion at the Shahid Rajaee port may have been an act of sabotage or an FPV strike.
Extra pressure on China is a real motivator for setting up this war lab. Now Beijing not only needs to start worrying about an explosively renewed India-Pakistan front but also extra CIA/MI6 mischief pushing the Pak connection to Uighur Salafi-jihadis.
There’s no chance in hell Delhi will really understand Beijing’s geopolitical predicaments. A perfect scenario for the Hybrid War gang.
Meanwhile, at the BRICS front, at least there are some signs of rationality – coming, once again, from Grandmaster Lavrov.
Even before the BRICS Foreign Ministers meeting early this week in Rio, Lavrov cut to the chase on the financial and geoeconomic front. He stressed that BRICS are working hard on the 2024 Kazan summit-approved “Trans-Border Payment Initiative”; a “payment and clearing infrastructure”; “a re-insurance company”; and a new investment platform.
He had to once again explain to Western media – from the US to Brazil – that “it would be premature to discuss a transition to a single currency for BRICS. We are working together to create a payment and settlement infrastructure for carrying out cross-border settlements among BRICS countries. In particular, as I have already said, this includes increasing the share of national currencies in our transactions.”
A BRICS common currency – a specter hovering over Trump 2.0 – will only come back to the table “once the necessary financial and economic conditions are in place.” Until then, the war on BRICS, hybrid and otherwise, will be relentless.
Trumpty Dumpty
Switching from reality to fantasy, it was such a blast to find the connection between Kashmir and Alice in Wonderland… in a Chinese essay.
It takes supreme Chinese finesse – quite like subverting Taoist wisdom with a touch of post-modernism – to identify the “ruler of the world” (his own terminology) throwing everyone, virtually the whole planet, into the rabbit hole.
So in this wilderness of narrative mirrors, Trump should be perceived as all characters combined: the White Rabbit, Humpty Dumpty (“When I use a word, it means what I choose to mean, no more and no less”), the Mad Hatter, the Queen of Hearts (“Off with their heads!”)
That certainly illustrates the intersection of the trade war (launched by the “ruler of the world”) and the genocide war (fully legitimized by the “ruler of the world”). With an extra twist: reality has a knack to out-Carroll even Lewis Carroll himself.
Enter the curious case of the USS Truman, a giant aircraft carrier, being possessed by the spirit of Ayrton Senna and deciding to pull out an ultra-sharp curve as if it was a Maserati Gran Turismo Stradale in the middle of the Red Sea – just for a F-18E Super Hornet to protest about the maneuver plunging head on to the bottom of the ocean.
At least that was the narrative CENTCOM sold to global public opinion. Blame that damned Houthi missile fire!
Well, CENTCOM has been relentlessly humiliated by the Yemeni Armed Forces – 21 MQ9-Reapers smashed, and counting – as it has accomplished zero military objectives; the Pentagon has not subdued the Houthis; and has not secured “freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea for Israeli-bound ships. Their revenge: to bomb Yemeni civilian targets non-stop.
All that because the “ruler of the world” launched an illegal war – against people guided by moral and spiritual clarity – to protect the genocide perpetrated by his psychopathological regime buddies. Welcome to “Ruler of the World” does Wonderland – to the sound of that hypnotic ‘Kashmir’ riff.
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