Connexion
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A comparative and expressive approach
Emmanual Todd and posted at the The Francophone Saker Blog
(This was machine translated from French)
The references from the 1930s were multiplied. The degeneration of American democracy seems to bring us back to that of the German republic of Weimar. Trump, for his joy in violence and lie, for the exercise of evil, irresistibly ramen to Hitler. In Europe, the mountain of movements categorized as extreme-right obliges us to this return on our history.
Western societies, however, no longer resemble what they were in the 1930’s. They are aged, consumption, tertiary, women are emancipated, personal development ya replaces partisan adherence. What does it have to do with the societies of the 1930s: young, frugal, industrial, workers, men, inserted? It is this socio-historical distance that had led me to consider until today as a priori invalidate the parallel between the “Extreme Right” of the present and those of the past. But political doctrines exist, today as yesterday, and one cannot be content to postularize the impossibility, for example, of an old Nazism, a francism of consumers, a fascism of liberated women or an LGBTism Croix-de-Fire.
The time has come to compare the doctrines of our present to those of the 1930s. Here is the outline of what could be the comparative study of five historical phenomena: Hitlerism, Trumpism, netanyahi(u)sme, lepenism. I will add at the end of the course, briefly, macronism. The centrist and European extremism that leads France to chaos obliges us to this examination. Is this extremism so centrist?
It will be an impressionist approach, without prejudice to completeness or even consistency, the purpose of which is to open up leads, not to conclude.
Strength of the features and colors for pleasure – the concepts in relation to each other. I’m deliberately exaggerating, to catch up or even anticipate a story that is accelerating. Expressionist approach will be perhaps a more appropriate metaphor.
Let’s start with the general dimension of racism or xenophobia.
The rejection of a “Other” defined as external to the national community, with very variable levels of intensity, is common to Hitlerism, Trumpism and lepenism. In the case of Hitlerism and Trumpism, there is the notion of racism, explicit or implicit, which is common. The Jews were considered by Nazism to be a race, in the biological sense. Blacks, these barely hidden targets of the Trumpized Republican Party, are also biologically defined. To lepenism, on the other hand, we can only associate the concept of xenophobia. Arabs or Muslims are defined by culture. One of the characteristics of the French obsession with immigration remains its fixation on Islam and its inability to target blacks, whose massive arrival is the new element of the migration process. The rate of mixed marriages of black women is three years old in France, the insignificant remaining in the United States.
A common feature of “populisms” Westerners is of course their refusal of immigration: Reform UK, the Sverigedemokraterna (Democrats of Sweden), the AfD, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Law and Justice in Poland, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, pass, like Trump or the Pen, the test of this common denominator. Is it enough to define them as far-right, in the sense that Nazism and fascism were far-right? I don’t think so. A crucial difference opposes today’s populism to the extreme right of the Hitler or Mussolinian type: Nazism and fascism were expansionist, with the aim of projecting to the outside of the power of the German (Aryan) or Italian (Roman) people. They were aggressive, nationalist, conquerors. They were relying on mass shares. We can’t imagine the current populists organizing the Nuremberg-style parades. The aperitifs sausage-pinard of the RN are certainly anti-Muslim but, nevertheless, less impressive than the Hitler war ceremonies. From Nuremberg to Hénin-Beaumont? Really?
Western populism will pass 100% of Netanyahu’s cell expansion test. Colonies of the West Bank, genocide of Gaza: Establishing relationship a between Hitlerism and Netanyahu is inevitable.
The French, British, Swedish, Finnish, Polish, Hungarian, Italian xenophobias are, in contrast to Nazism and fascism, defensive. We are not dealing with people who want to conquer but about people who want to remain masters at home. That is why the cultural dimension prevails today in Europe over the racial concept and why we can only speak here of xenophobia. This is xenophobia a conservative, where Hitler’s racism was revolutionary because it disrupted social organization. The notion of nationalism therefore does not apply to current European populisms, the notion of extreme right either, or we will have to introduce oxymorons like “Moderate Nationalism” and “moderate extreme right” . I to prefer of popular conservatism.
Personally in favour of controlled immigration, I must admit the legitimacy of thiste xenophobia because I accept the axiom that a human group with a culture, aware of existing as a community, in short a people, has the right to want to continue to exist. A person who controls the borders. Nazism, with its soldiers installed from the Atlantic to the Volga to serve or exterminate other peoples there was quite another thing.
Trumpism represent a mixed form that seems to combines a central defense element, anti-immigration, with a strong potential for aggression in the foreign world. This is not about expansionism. It is the earlier expansion of the US military apparatus and the role of the dollar in imperial predation that have made possible the violent Trumpian acts directed against other peoples and nations: Venezuela, Iran, we, the Western European subject peoples, and of course the Arabs, with the Palestinians as the main target. The gradual integration of Israel into the Empire, from 1967, makes that by 2025 we can hardly distinguish the Trumpism of Netanyahuism. But Trump, beyond his nobelizable antics, is indeed the chief culprit of the genocide in Gaza by his long-term encouragement to Israel’s violence: this so simple fact makes Trumpism fall on the side of Hitlerism. Trump is still behind the wheel: US accelerators and brakes regulate Netanyahu’s genocidal aggressiveness. I am lucky: as I write, Trump, frightened by the reaction of the Arab peas to the Israeli raid on Qatar, and in particular by the strategic alliance between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, is retreating. He ordered Netanyahu to apologize for the bombing in Qatar and he executed. Trump imposes on Israel an agreement with Hamas and Netanyahu. Then? Trump is perverted, impossible to say.
The concept of Trumpo-Netanyahism, rather ugly I admit, makes it possible to identify the Jewish question as a common point in the American crisis of the years 2000-2035 and the German crisis of the years 1920-1945.
The radical pro-Israel stance of Trumpism masks in my opinion a visceral and vicious anti-Semitism: the identification of all Jews with netanyahism, a historical phenomenon effectively monstrous, canker in Jewish history, will only lead to renewing the Nazi conception of a monstrous Jewish people. I am talking about anti-Semitism 2.0.
I am aware that few actors will follow me on this point. But here I am only speaking like a banal prophet of the Old Testament. ” We were not chosen to be on the side of the powerful. History never ceases to set this trap for us . How many times the Jews thought themselves saved by the strong, by the powerful, by power, by an empire, designated even by a privilege – financial, intellectual success, importance in the Bolshevik party – to be finally thrown into fray to furious peoples… My heart bleeds When see you so many French Jews, who are believed on the sleeve, Netanyahu’s politics. But the children of a child who are on the train are very good. Thanks to Trump, the planet has anti-Semitic. American Jews, the majority of whom reject the Netanyahu line, are wiser and more just. But already, the Jews hostile to Netanyahu, academic or not, are suspected by the power of being anti-Semitic. Perversity reigns. Trumpism reigns.us .” How many times the Jews thought themselves saved by the strong, by the powerful, by an empire, even by designated a privilege – financial, intellectual success, importance in the Bolshevik party – to be finally be thrown into fray to furious peoples… My heart bleeds when I see so many French Jews, who today believe themselves on the side of the round, Netanyahu’s policy. But it is the jaws of a trap that are opening. the majority of those who reject the Netanyahu line, are wiser and more just. But already, Jews hostile to Netanyahu, or academic not, are suspected by the power of being anti-Semitic.
When is the close of the trap? One day, the Christian nations will inevitably make their peace with 1.6 billion Muslims. The Jews will then be abandoned by their fans and, now alone, thrown into the pasture to other furious peoples.
The promised land succeeds, disasters follow them. Nightfall, the first novel by Isaac Asimov, is the third great author of American science fiction, and seem to metaphor for the long suite of dramas that constitutes that the last story: within a civilization, a remnant of prophecy announces a mysterious catastrophe… it arrives, surprising… civilization. collapses… then slowly, it is reborn, it flourishes… a resumption of prophecy announces a mysterious catastrophe… it arrives, surprising…
In truth, the mere return of Jewish obsession to the heart of the West validates the hypothesis of a threatening continuity between the past and the present.
Zombie Protestantism and Nazism, Zero Protestantism and Trumpism
The economic crisis of 1929 was a determining, well-known factor in the Hitlerization of Germany. 6 million of the unemployed escaped Germany society from any ideological recall force. Hitler’s liquidation of unemployment in a few months sealed the fate of liberalism.
The religious context of the rise of Nazism, all also important, is less familiar: between 1870 and 1930, the Protestant faith vanished in Germany, first in the working world, then in the middle and upper classes. The Catholic regions resisted. In 1932 and 1933, the Nazi vote card was reproduced, with fascinating and literacy. Protestantism did not believe in the equality of men. There were the elect, appointed as such by the Lord even before their birth, and the damned. The metaphysical belief Protestant once it disappeared, what remained of it was the hysterization by the fear of the void of its unequal content, with the Jews, the Slavs and so many others as damned. In the United States, Protestantism of Calvinist origin targeted blacks. The Calvinist people, made on the Bible, themselves identified in Hebrew, and who born the anti-Semitism of America in the last few years and my open judgments. Finally…safe until the recent emergence of evangelical fixation on the state of Israel.
In the French Catholic Church, (in the Parisian Basin and on the Mediterranean facade in particular), the collapse of the faith and practice made 1730 to mutate the equal opportunities for access to paradise (obtained by baptism, which washes original sin) into equality of citizens and the emancipation of Jews. The republican idea of a universal man replaces that of the universal Catholic Christian (katholikoss universal in Greek). A very different program than Nazism but which had represented, long before it, the first massive replacement of a religion by an ideology. In both revolutionary and Nazi Germany, however, the potential for social and moral leadership of religion had survived the belief: the individual remained a member of his nation, his class, bearer of a work ethic and the sense of obligations towards the members of the group. The capacity of collective action is strong, ten-fold. This is what I call the zombie stadium of religion. The Nazis corresponds to this zombie state, which, due to unhappy, is and militarily effective.
I could complete this religious explanation of ideology with an explanation of religion itself, influenced by the underlying family structures, unequal in Germany and egalitarian in the Paris Basin. But we can be satisfied here with a continuity of Protestantism in Nazism and Catholicism in the French Revolution.
We find Protestantism in Trumpism. We then find the inequality associated with negrophobia. However, we are no longer at the zombie stage of religion but at its zero stage. The common morality has disappeared. Social efficiency has disappeared. The individual floats, particularly in this America of absolute nuclear family structure, individualistic and without a well-defined rule of inheritance. So it is to be expected as a Trumpist ideology: inequality always, but less stability in delirium, from brutal oscillations that do not, fundamentally, come from the brain of a vulgar and vicious president but from society itself. The capacity for collective, economic and military action is, fortunately for us, greatly diminished.
Note in the case of Trumpism the emergence of pseudo-nusely nihilistic forms that include an obscene reinterpretation of the Bible, such as a glorification of the rich. Significantly weaker than Nazism in the dimension of racism, Trumpism goes further in economic immorality.
Nazism is simply and anti-Christian. Trumpism is intended to be religious but in the manner of a satanic cult, by the inversion of values. Evil is good, injustice is justice. Hitler was only the Führer, guide of the German people to his martyrdom; Trump is not Satan but I suspect that for his Satanist fans his red cap is that of the Antichrist.
In the case of lepenism, no unequal Protestant inheritance. This is the real mystery of the National Rally: xenophobic, he was born in Catholic land. Worse still, its first zones of strength, on the Mediterranean facade and in the Paris basin, were that of the Revolution: egalitarian on the family and de-Christianized level from the eighteenth century. So, then? Inequality the National Rally? Egalitarian? Mystery to us, the RN is probably also for itself. They are rejected from the other results from a perverse egalitarianism that a rapid assimilation of immigrants rather than it feels them as different in essence. Above all, the RN, strongly determined by the rejection of immigrants, and even their children, is nevertheless constantly reminded of the French egalitarian tradition because its voters hate the ultra-rich, the powerful, in short our idiot elites, and not only the Immigrants. This is why the union of the right is struggling to succeed in France. In one form or another, the union of the oligarchs and the (white) people against the foreigner does not pose problems in the United States, the United Kingdom, or Scandinavia, where conservative popular forces and classical right-wing forces are easily agreed. In France, the coalition of rich and poverty against foreigners is dismantled.
However, do not underestimate the potential violence of a xenophobia of universalist essence. It can become racism. If a man thinks a priori that men are everywhere the same and that he is confronted with men bearing different customs, he may very well conclude that they are not men.
The RN is the product of a zero Catholicism, like the Revolution of a zombie Catholicism. That is why it will not give birth to any collective project. I refer the detailed examination of the RN and its relationship in the future to a future text, neither impressionist, nor expressionist, which I will devote entirely to the internal logic and dynamics of French chaos.
Psychiatry of the most advanced classes
I now turn to a crucial difference, which should be obvious to all and recalled by the political commentators who constantly refer us back to 1930 by their vocabulary. Understanding the religious, or post-religious, dimension of Hitlerism, Trumpism or lepenism, presupposed historical knowledge that one cannot demand from TV platter political scientists. On the other hand, we can demand from them that they know how to socially locate the ideologies of the past and the present, that they relentlessly bring together by the term extreme right. The difference between past and present is here very clear.
Nazism and pre-war far-right movements found their social epicenter in the middle and particularly middle-upper classes, threatened by the workers’, social-democratic or communist movement. These middle classes were feverish, very busy locking up their wives and persecuting homosexuals. Today, the so-called far-right movements find, on the other hand, their epicenter in popular circles, especially in an impoverished working-class world, shaken or destroyed by economic globalization, threatened by immigration. Today’s middle classes, largely defined by higher education, are less or even weakly affected by “The Extreme Right” . The most advanced classes, which combines higher education and higher education, are particularly immune.
It is for reason this that I prefer to talk about popular conservatism than extreme right. They are anchored in the group of dominated explains the defensive character of popular conservatism. They are an electrician cannot imagine conquering Europe or the world if it thinks of its own life as a survival.
The real intellectual mistake would be to stick to that. Let us continue to move forward, let us even turn down the problem of the association between ideology and class. We now compare the ideas of the present to the cells of the past, compare the main classes of the present to the cells of the past.
Some European middle classes of the interwar period went into madness. The world today is more reasonable. But the most recent classes, the most advanced classes, are they reasonable? Are they peaceful? What are their dreams?
They’re crazy. The construction of a post-national Europe is a hallucinatory project when we know the diversity of the continent. It led to the expansion of the European Union, tinkered and unstable, in the former Soviet space. The EU is now Russian-speaking, warmongered, with aggressiveness renewed by its economic defeat against Russia. The EU is trying to drag the British, French, German and so many others into a real war. But what a strange war it would be, in which the Western elites would have adopted the Hitlerian dream of destroying Russia!
The comparison between the social classes does not allow us to a major intellectual breakthrough. Europáism, and therefore macronism, falls, through their external aggressiveness, on the side of nationalism, on the side of the pre-war far-right. If we add sprains to freedom of information and the expression of popular suffrage, increasingly massive and systematic sprains in the EU space, we are getting even closer to the notion of the extreme right. Founded as an association of liberal democracies, Europe is moving into far-right space. Yes, the comparison with the current years is useful, essential even.
We find in the grandiose European project a psychopathological dimension already observable in Hitlerism: paranoia. European paranoia is concentrated in Russia. That of the Nazis made the Jewish threat a priority, without neglecting Russian Bolshevism (known as Judeo-Bolshevism).
Today as yesterday we can analyze a psychopathology of the Europeans classes. The bizarre sequence loved by Trump’s election, with the president’s unstable desire to discuss Putin allow, us to live in the real world of our lives. Let us summarize our delusional process. It began around 2014, before, during and after Maidan, this coup that disintegrated Ukraine, a coup remotely guided by American and German strategists. The Now Suite:
014-2022: Let us provoke Russia, which had warned that it would not tolerate the annexation of Ukraine by the European Union and NATO.
It’s done. Putin invaded Ukraine.
2022-2025: Let’s forgive the resulting economic war for us.
It’s done. Our societies implode.
2022-2025: Let us forgive the war in the strict sense waged on our behalf by the kyiv regime.
It’s in progress. The change of European governments in a parallel reality will begin in 2025.
Let us draw from our defeat the idea that we can finally impose our will and install our troops in Ukraine, to annex to the EU what will remain. But how can we not think to Hitler locked in his bunker in 1945, to give orders to armies that no longer exist.
We have today in Europe dealing with fools, or rather with a collective madness that has grasped en masse the individuals of the dominant social circles. In France alone, thousands of journalists, politicians, academics, business leaders, senior officials, participating in the collective hallucination of a Russia that would like to conquer Europe (paranoia). Such a person cannot be held to be personally responsible. Our thoughts are on a collective dynamic psyche.
I am convinced that the diminución of the individual born of the ero state of religion birth these schools of Russophobic fish.
As I explained in The Class Struggles In France in the 21st century, the disappearance of collective beliefs – religious beliefs and then ideological beliefs of the zombie religious state – led to a collapse of the human superego. Unlike the activists of the liberation of the self, I do not define the superego as only or even mainly repressive. The superego, as the ideal of the self, anchors in the person of positive moral and social values. The notions of honor, of courage, of justice, of honesty find their origin and strength in the superego. If it weakens, they weaken. If they shoot, they shoot. The man who was not at the end was freed by the end of religion and the most contrary diminished ideologies. These are men and women who are highly educated but morally and intellectually narrowed by the zero state of religion who are, en masse, carriers of the Russophobic pathology.
Nazi anti-Semites had a completely different psychic constitution. The death of God, to speak like Nietzsche, had certainly launched them in the quest for a Führer but they were hardly in deficit of superego and remained capable of collective action. The tragic performances of the German army during the last world war in testimony. Who are we to imagine today in our most advanced classes at death, in the face of people, in kyiv and Kharkov? Our war in Ukraine is for laughter, a product of the emancipation of the self, daughter of personal development. Only Ukrainians and Russians will die.
Unless…
The thermonuclear changes can happen to heroes.
Emmanuel Todd
Plus de 40 millions d’utilisateurs se sont inscrits sur la messagerie MAX, a rapporté le service de presse de la
L’article La messagerie russe MAX, créée pour assurer la souveraineté numérique, dépasse les 40 millions d’utilisateurs est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
This has been the methodology for the past two years. As I said yesterday, these people are all non-agreement capable.
The Gaza deal unveiled Monday reflects major edits pushed through by Netanyahu, infuriating Arab mediators who thought they had a different agreement in place.
While Trump hosted Netanyahu at the White House, Qatari PM Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was in Doha presenting the plan to Hamas. Hours earlier, Netanyahu had called him to apologize for Israel’s strike in Qatar, a condition for Doha to resume mediation.
Netanyahu secured edits tying IDF withdrawal to Hamas’ disarmament, giving Israel veto power. Even after three phases of withdrawal, Israeli troops will remain in a permanent security perimeter inside Gaza “until Gaza is secure,” which could be potentially indefinite.
Arab states including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Qatar were furious. Doha even urged Trump not to publish the updated text, but the White House released it anyway. To paper over divisions, 8 states issued a joint statement “welcoming” Trump’s role, while withholding full endorsement.
For Palestinians, the plan has some positive elements: no displacement from Gaza, no permanent Israeli occupation, no annexation of the West Bank, a surge in humanitarian aid, and a stated U.S. commitment to restart peace talks and support “a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination.”
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas cautiously welcomed Trump’s “efforts to end the war,” a shift from his rejection of Trump’s first-term peace plan.
The plan demands all hostages (alive or deceased) be returned within 72 hours of Israel’s acceptance. But it’s unclear if Netanyahu’s endorsement started that clock.
If Hamas rejects or stalls, the U.S. plan says aid will still flow to “terror-free areas” handed over by Israel to an interim security force.
The bottom line: Netanyahu won key concessions that harden Israel’s leverage, but Arab capitals and Hamas are bristling. Whether the plan holds depends on if regional mediators can pressure Hamas into swallowing terms that strip them of weapons and leverage while leaving Israeli forces dug in.
Le président américain s’est entretenu avec le Premier ministre israélien et a dévoilé un nouveau plan de paix pour Gaza,
L’article Trump dévoile son plan pour mettre un terme au conflit à Gaza, déjà approuvé par Netanyahou est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
From the Cradle and written by Mohamad Hasan Sweidan
For nearly two years, Israel has been waging what Netanyahu calls a “multi-front war.” This war includes, in addition to Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the occupied West Bank, and Iran. In one of his interviews, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that he feels he is on a “historic and spiritual mission,” and that he is “deeply connected” to the vision of the Promised Land and Greater Israel. With these words, Netanyahu confirms that what he calls a “multi-front war” is driven by both religious and political motives.
The danger lies in Netanyahu and the radical religious Zionist right believing that the world must approach the brink of a great war “for the Messiah to descend and save it”. For this reason, they encourage continuing and expanding the violence in Gaza to Lebanon, Iran, and beyond, seeing this as the “age of the Messiah.”
The seven fronts of the war
On 9 October 2023, just two days after Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, during a meeting with the mayors of the southern border towns affected by the 7 October attack, Israel’s Prime Minister stated that Tel Aviv’s response to the unprecedented multi-front assault launched by Palestinian fighters from Gaza “will change the Middle East.” From that moment, it became clear that the war would not remain confined to Gaza, but that Israel would expand it to achieve its main goal, which is a new regional order where the balance of power favors Tel Aviv.
Israeli leaders have repeatedly claimed they are simultaneously fighting on seven fronts – Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the occupied West Bank, and Iran – portraying all these conflicts as targeting an “Iran-led axis” allegedly seeking to “destroy the Jewish state.”
To achieve this goal, Israel pursues two main paths: weakening its enemies and enforcing compliance by force on the rest of the region’s states, including US allies. On the first path, Israel has relied on direct military strikes, framing them as “multi-front wars” under a “defensive” rationale.
As for the second path, enforcing compliance by force, Israel repeatedly attacked the “new Syria,” a state no longer hostile to Israel or the US, and has occupied portions of its territory. Syria’s consistently positive overtures toward Tel Aviv did not deter Israel, which persisted in its strikes and continued occupation.
Meanwhile, Israel’s recent strike on Qatar on 9 September fits within two parallel tracks of its policy. The first is aimed directly at Hamas’s political leaders, signaling that there is no safe haven for them anywhere in the world. The second conveys a clear message to Qatar and other US allies in the region; Israel’s approach is not based on shared interests but on fear of consequences. Alliances based on mutual interests are one thing, and compliance enforced through fear is another. At this stage, this is precisely the message Trump seeks to send to the region’s states: “Obey me, or I cannot guarantee that Israel will remain distant from you.” Fundamentally, this warning is addressed to all states in the region, without exception.
Regional states must understand that what once shielded their capitals from Israeli-American aggression was the presence of the Axis of Resistance that maintained a regional deterrence balance for years. Once this axis weakened, Israel was liberated from constraints and began operating without limits. It should not be noted that Qatar is officially designated a “Major Non-NATO Ally” of the US, a status conferred by the Biden administration since March 2022. In addition, Qatar hosts the Al-Udeid Air Base, which is far more than a conventional military base, but serves as the headquarters of US Central Command (CENTCOM) in the region, making it one of Washington’s most strategically significant hubs worldwide. Yet none of this prevented Tel Aviv from attacking it.
What has Israel achieved?
We must begin by defining strategic achievement. In international relations, a strategic achievement can be defined as attaining long-term goals that reshape the balance of power, enhance state security, or expand influence in the international system. Strategic achievement differs from short-term tactical or operational gains in that it “produces changes in the fundamental structures of interaction between states and non-state actors.” This means that strategic achievement must consolidate a lasting advantage in the geopolitical arena.
From this perspective, Israel has so far failed to achieve any strategic accomplishments in West Asia. Instead, over the past two years, it has accumulated a series of tactical gains that it seeks to transform into strategic advantages. In Gaza, Tel Aviv remains unable to eliminate the Hamas, and in Lebanon, it has likewise failed to dismantle Hezbollah – despite managing to weaken both resistance movements. In Iran, its attempts to change the regime or dissuade Tehran from supporting resistance movements have failed. In Yemen, its actions did not stop Sanaa’s support for Gaza.
Therefore, the core of the current battle is to prevent Tel Aviv from transforming its tactical gains into entrenched strategic ones. If Israel fails to eliminate the Palestinian resistance, fails to isolate and disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, sees Iran continue to support resistance movements and anti-hegemony discourse, and if the Yemeni support front remains steady, then Israel will have exhausted the maximum of its power to impose a regional reality that grants it temporary superiority, neutralizing resistance for a period, but remaining fragile and unsustainable in the medium and long term.
The outcome of this struggle ultimately depends on Tel Aviv’s opponents overcoming the multiple challenges created by its wars in West Asia. Either the resistance forces succeed in thwarting Tel Aviv’s attempts to turn temporary gains into a long-term strategic achievement, or Tel Aviv and Washington succeed in leveraging these tactical gains to impose a new strategic reality that serves their interests.
A critical question then arises: What price has Israel paid to achieve its current ‘accomplishments’?
In a recent article titled ‘Israel is Fighting a War It Cannot Win,’ Ami Ayalon, former head of the Israeli Navy and former director of Shin Bet, writes, “The course Israel is currently pursuing will erode existing peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, deepen internal divisions, and heighten international isolation. It will fuel greater extremism across the region, escalate religious-nationalist violence by global jihadist groups thriving on chaos, weaken support from US policymakers and citizens, and drive a rise in anti-Semitism worldwide.” He concludes by saying, “Israel’s military deterrence has been restored, demonstrating its ability to defend itself and deter its enemies. But force alone cannot dismantle Iran’s network of proxies nor secure lasting peace and stability for Israel for generations to come.”
Additionally, as a result of Israeli crimes in Gaza, responsibility for the humanitarian catastrophe there has shifted from Hamas to Israel. For a long time, Tel Aviv sought to portray Hamas as primarily responsible for Gaza’s difficult humanitarian reality. However, Israel’s unlimited aggressiveness undermined this effort.
A survey conducted by Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs to evaluate its global reputation found that respondents in the US, Germany, Britain, Spain, and France believe that the majority of those killed by Israel in Gaza are civilians. The survey also revealed that Europeans, in particular, “agree with characterizing Israel as a state of practicing genocide and apartheid, despite their opposition to Hamas and Iran.” Moreover, a recent Quinnipiac University poll indicated that 37 percent of US voters support Palestinians, compared to 36 percent who support Israelis. The danger of these figures is that they show Israel is losing western public opinion, which may make support for Tel Aviv a key issue in future western elections.
Furthermore, nine states completed the legal procedures required to formally recognize the State of Palestine last year, the largest annual increase since 2011:
Date State
20 April Barbados
23 April Jamaica
2 May Trinidad and Tobago
7 May Bahamas
28 May Norway
28 May Ireland
28 May Spain
4 June Slovenia
21 June Armenia
These recognitions raised the global total from 138 to 147 in 2024, meaning that nearly three-quarters of UN member states (147 out of 193) now officially recognize the State of Palestine.
In addition, three of the US’s key allies – France, the UK, and Canada – announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state, while several other countries are considering the same step. This marks a significant shift that further isolates Israel amid growing international concern over Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. These three countries will become the first G7 members to formally recognize a Palestinian state, posing a clear challenge to Israel. Should they proceed, the US would remain the sole permanent UN Security Council member not to recognize Palestine.
A new combat doctrine
There is no doubt that 7 October marked a turning point in Israel’s military strategy. From that date onward, Israel abandoned for the first time the combat doctrine established by David Ben Gurion, Israel’s first prime minister. Blitz wars were no longer its preferred option, the issue of recovering prisoners was no longer a central priority, and its threshold for human and material losses in any military confrontation rose significantly. This shift compels all regional states to recalibrate their strategies to match Tel Aviv’s new combat doctrine.
It is important to stress that Ben Gurion designed Israel’s combat doctrine to suit its geographic and demographic realities. This may have prompted retired Israeli colonel Gur Laish, former head of war planning in the Israeli Air Force and a key participant in the army’s strategic planning, to publish a paper on 19 August at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, warning Israeli leaders against adopting a new security doctrine that disregards Israel’s limits of power. Yet, the following crucial question remains: Will Netanyahu succeed in proving the effectiveness of Israel’s new approach, or will abandoning Ben Gurion’s doctrine mark the beginning of Israel’s end?
Today, the pressure on Iran seems to have lessened. There is a reason or more than one.
Let’s step back to yesterday, when the airwaves suddenly exploded with notifications of US evacuations of non-essential employees and family members from various embassies and air bases across West Asia. From Kuwait, these notifications poured in right across the region. Initially, we thought this was putting pressure on the next round of Iran-US negotiations, slated for Sunday. Then, a notification was issued stating that no talks would take place. The Iranian FM was in Europe, and the Army Chief in the East. This was only one list of observations that I posted on the Apocalypse thread in the Hearty Salon:
The US’ Middle East commander has canceled testimony in Washington tomorrow.
Reuters says it’s due to ‘tensions’ in the region. OK …
In addition:
Two US Air Force tanker aircraft went dark over the Middle East shortly after takeoff. A KC-46A Pegasus departed Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and turned off its transponder minutes later. Five minutes after, a KC-135T Stratotanker took off from Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and also switched off its transponder.
In addition:
The parties of the Israeli Knesset have mutually agreed to postpone the vote on dissolving the Knesset until next week.
In addition:
US ambassador to the occupied territories, Mike Huckabee, announced that Washington no longer supports an independent Palestinian state, suggesting it could instead be created elsewhere in West Asia.
In addition:
Egyptian security forces are detaining dozens of Tunisians, French, and Algerians at Cairo Airport for their participation in the “Solidarity Convoy” headed to Gaza.
Egyptian police stormed Downtown Hotel and another hotel in central Cairo, where members of the French delegation were staying, before contact with them was lost.
There was a convergence of these issues:
-Iran warns it will react ‘strongly’ to potential ‘strategic mistake’ by E3 .. They want to reinstate the ‘snap-back’ mechanism, which has been dormant since 2015.
Iran’s foreign minister issued a stern warning to the three European signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal, commonly known as the E3, accusing them of failure to fulfill their obligations and cautioning against further “strategic mistakes.” The European parties to the JCPOA are in no legal or moral position to activate the 2015 nuclear deal’s so-called snapback mechanism, considering their non-compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, according to the Iranian envoy to the IAEA.
-The vote to dissolve the Knesset was postponed for a week. Netanyahu was expected to lose the vote, and the Knesset would be dissolved. The US worked very hard to try and contain this. US ambassador to the occupied territories, Mike Huckabee, announced that Washington no longer supports an independent Palestinian state, suggesting it could instead be created elsewhere in West Asia.
-There was a feeling that Iran is talking big about what they found in the documents that they grabbed from Israel. There is a push to hold them accountable for their talk.
-Israel is seemingly in a state of economic collapse.
-Brent Crude started spiking.
What happened next was epic, but who won? Fast Forward …
The US Ambassador to Israel twisted arms, made some threats and late last night, the vote to dissolve the Knesset did not work. Netanyahu is still in there.
The IAEA condemned Iran, accusing Tehran of non-compliance with the safeguards agreement, which is complete nonsense. This was their first condemnation in 20 years. So while Huckabee was twisting arms and surely spreading bags of goodwill in Israel, the E3 was furiously drafting a condemnation, the IAEA board of governors adopted this anti-Iran resolution and accused Iran of non-compliance with nuclear safeguards obligations (This is meaningless in the big scheme of things and serves only as propaganda).
Then we heard that Egyptian authorities stormed two hotels in Cairo, after which dozens of activists on the Resilience Convoy were arrested, interrogated, and held against their wills pending deportation. This tactic of arresting righteous people who are answering Gaza’s cries to the free people of the world, and deporting them before they can deliver their aid, is heinous. For its part, the Egyptian government issued a statement asking those who arrive as part of the Resilience Convoy to go through “proper channels” and obtain approval to head to the Rafah border crossing. No such permission has been granted then or now.
Somewhere during this time, Pepe Escobar stated that they are still in Moscow, observing with trepidation. Larry Johnson landed in Dubai at midnight and walked into this development. He stated, “Donald Trump apparently has decided to attack Iran. Mark this date. It is the beginning of the end of the Trump Presidency. Trump has been persuaded that the Iranian air defense is weak and that a US bombing run will eliminate any chance that Iran can build a nuclear device. He has been a victim of lies. He will shortly discover, if these attacks take place, that Iran retains a significant capability to shoot down US aircraft. I fully expect Iran will capture and put on display several US Air Force officers in the next week.”
This comment remains valid, although the pressure was somewhat alleviated by Trump’s actions today.
And so we arrive at today …
A few pieces fell in place for Donnie and the Bibi during this lightning-quick raid.
The Orange Don is out there in front of his adoring press corps saying that he wants to make a deal with Iran, and Sunday, they will talk again, and Iran must do what he wants them to do. He is also threatening, and saying he told Bibi to hold off as he, Donnie thinks the negotiations will be successful. “Iran is gonna have to negotiate a ‘little bit TOUGHER’ – Trump. The Don says ‘they’re gonna have to give us some things that they’re not willing to give us’, and Israeli attack on Iran ‘could very well happen’. (Pumping up the volume).
At this time, I’ll call in my dictum on the Evolving Strategy of Empire. File this under: “The pattern has changed toward attempts to use dwindling economic rights as a wedge for military insertion to expand the hegemonic stake.”
What do you think the US wants?
So Donny bought a little time for Netanyahu. This is a short-term win for Donnie and Netanyahu, as the Israelis (all gung-ho on deleting Gaza and the Palestinians) are sick of Netanyahu. The US went into overdrive and ran a costly operation to save Bibi.
There is the case of Iran obtaining thousands of sensitive documents on Israel’s nuclear program through an intelligence operation that reveals direct cooperation between Tel Aviv and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, against Iran. Oh, the fear! Let’s stop those documents being published come hell or high water. Iran stated that they not only are in possession of Israel’s whole nuclear infrastructure, but they also have those who, through the years, have killed the Iranian engineers. Iran immediately began publishing this, as promised. Some will be made pubic, some will go to their friends. Surely we don’t have the whole picture yet. But Donnie feels good as Netanyahu is safe for a little while.
In an interview for #AlMayadeen, Tehran University Professor Mohammad Marandi described the leaked documents exposing IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi’s covert coordination with “Israel” as just a “first small taste” of what’s to come. Marandi said the documents confirmed long-held Iranian suspicions that the #IAEA has acted as a channel for passing sensitive information to Israeli and Western intelligence. “This is basically just the first small taste,” he warned, adding that more files will be made public in the coming weeks, while others are reserved for military and intelligence use.
What do you think the US wants?
Iran has made a number of statements, but said again: Iran’s uranium enrichment is key to energy sovereignty, economic growth, and scientific progress, enabling nuclear fuel production, clean energy production, and supporting medical and agricultural applications. We will not curtail our enrichment operation, and in fact, we’ve just built another enrichment facility, which we will equip with the most modern equipment.
Iran is also conducting real military exercises, simulating a counterattack against an enemy.
I’ve not yet seen a confirmation that Iran will attend the on-again, off-again negotiations slated for Sunday.
So what does the US want?
We see the same process in Latin America. They threaten and then want to muscle in on the resources of others. Of course, they want to share in the profits of Iran’s nuclear enrichment. Remember, just two or so weeks ago, the idea was mooted that Iran could enrich in a consortium (US, Europe), and they could even do it on their own lands. That is what Trump is after. He also wants to own the Middle East or West Asia. There is no need to justify these statements. He did this in Ukraine with the minerals and mining deal, and promised to insert the US between Ukraine and Russia. He is doing this in Latin America from the bottom up, mentioning, as a start, Brazil, which has already offered to share the riches of the rainforest, Venezuela’s oil, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico. He wants Gaza, yes, for the beach front, but also for that rich oilfield just off the coast. Bibi is saved because Bibi is offering the Golan Heights, as well as a sweetener of Syria and Lebanon. Donnie wants the world. He may share a little bit of Russia with Russia and he may decide to share a little of China with China. What a magnanimous King.
So who won?
So who won? The battle is yet to come.
L’administration Donald Trump est optimiste quant aux perspectives d’un accord de cessez-le-feu dans la bande de Gaza et de la
L’article Israël et le Hamas acceptent les nouvelles conditions d’un cessez-le-feu temporaire à Gaza est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.
As you listen to this, know that the quick statement that Amin al-Husseini stood trial at Nuremberg for war crimes is also not the truth. It is clear that Netanyahu is giving Hitler a break and blaming Haj Amin al-Husseini, “Grand Mufti” of Jerusalem. But with such a flagrant lie in such a short speech one cannot help but question the whole story. “Burn them indeed!”
The Wiki on al-Husseini is interesting and it is clear that history says as much as what it obscures. An interested party will have to seek out the deep history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amin_al-Husseini
https://www.jstor.org/stable/43921999
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