Connexion
“Whatever was the real story behind the 28 pointer … the messy, even infantile “plan” posing as Hegemon in Control and mocking the BRICS/SCO is completely unworkable.”
By Pepe Escobar at the Strategic Culture Foundation.
The Circus Ringmaster’s 28-point “peace plan” for Ukraine may be seen as a pet seal splashing around in a pond to amuse the galleries. And up next, we move to another attraction.
Yet if taken seriously – and that requires not a pinch but a barrel of salt – it’s like a twin to the Circus Ringmaster’s “plan” for Gaza, this time with the objective of snatching a pitiful “victory” from the jaws of the Empire of Chaos’s own, de facto strategic defeat.
Let’s check the reactions. Here you will find Larry Johnson’s analysis – which I share – , but most of all the video of the stunning two-hour interview we had mid-week in Moscow with stellar Maria Zakharova, the most articulated Foreign Ministry spokeswoman on the planet.
What Mrs. Zakharova essentially told us is that by mid-week there was no Russian reaction because Moscow had not received anything concrete: “When we have some official information, when we receive it via a relevant channel, naturally, we will always be open to work.”
The same applied to the Kremlin. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “No, we haven’t received anything officially. We see some innovations. But officially, we haven’t received anything. And there hasn’t been any substantive discussion of these items.”
Kupyansk has been liberated – Gerasimov told Putin
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) November 20, 2025
The first actual, terse response that came from President Putin was stunningly graphic: in camouflage, visiting a command center, and stressing that the set up in Kiev can no longer be described as a “political leadership” because it’s just “a criminal organization”.
After a few frantic days buried in a tsunami of spin concocted by NATOstan mainstream media, supporting but essentially against the 28-pointer, someone in Washington – and not necessarily Russian middleman Kirill Dmitriev – may have delivered it, officially, to the Kremlin.
So this past Friday we had, finally, President Putin’s own response, during a session of the permanent members of Russia’s Security Council.
The key Putin points must be stressed:
Alaska: “The main point of the Alaska summit, its main purpose, was that during the talks in Anchorage we confirmed that, despite some difficult issues and complexities, we nevertheless agreed with these proposals and were prepared to demonstrate the requested flexibility.”
Global South reaction: “We provided detailed information to all our friends and partners in the Global South on these matters – including China, India, the DPRK, South Africa, Brazil, many other countries, and, of course, the CSTO states. All our friends and partners, and I want to emphasise this – without exception – supported these potential arrangements.”
U.S. non-response: “However, after the negotiations in Alaska, we have seen a certain pause on the part of the U.S., and we know this is due to Ukraine’s de facto refusal to accept the peace plan proposed by President Trump. I believe this is precisely why a new version has emerged – essentially an updated plan consisting of 28 points.” Note that “updated” is the key operative word here – as in an extension of Alaska.
What the 28-pointer really means: “We have the text. We received it through our existing channels of communication with the U.S. Administration. I believe it too could form the basis of a final peace settlement, but this text is not being discussed with us in substance. And I can suggest why.
The reason, I believe, remains the same: the U.S. Administration still cannot secure Ukraine’s consent – Ukraine rejects it.
Evidently, Ukraine and its European allies remain under illusions and still dream of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia on the battlefield. I think this position is rooted not so much in a lack of competence – I will leave this topic aside for now – but rather in the absence of objective information about the real situation on the ground.”
Expanding on the EU and Ukraine: “All things considered, neither Ukraine nor Europe grasp the consequences of this path. Just one very recent example – Kupyansk. Not long ago, on 4 November – just two weeks ago – officials in Kiev publicly stated that no more than 60 Russian servicemen were present in the city, and that within the next few days, as they claimed, Ukrainian forces would fully unblock it.
But I would like to inform you that already at that moment, on 4 November, the city of Kupyansk was practically entirely secured by the Russian Armed Forces. Our guys were, as they say, simply finishing the job – clearing the remaining streets and neighbourhoods. The fate of the city had already been fully determined.
What does this tell us? Either the Kiev leaders do not have objective information about the situation at the front, or, having it, they are simply unable to assess it objectively.”
The SMO will go on: “If Kiev does not want to discuss President Trump’s proposals and rejects them, then they – and their European war-instigators – must understand that the situation in Kupyansk will inevitably be repeated on other key sectors of the front. Perhaps not as quickly as we would like, but the outcome will be inevitably repeated.”
The inevitable conclusion: “On the whole, this is acceptable to us, as it leads to achieving the objectives of the special military operation by military means. But, as I have said many times before, we are also ready for peace negotiations and for resolving problems by peaceful means. However, this requires a substantive discussion of all details of the proposed plan. We are ready for that.”
Deconstructing an incoherent mish-mash
So here we have finally come back to the essentials – what everyone with an IQ over room temperature following the imperial proxy war against Russia in Ukraine already knows: Russia is ready for peace, but in Putin’s own words, “is also satisfied with the current dynamics of the SMO”. Because this is leading – slowly but surely, “to the achievement of its goals” in the battlefield.
Whatever was the real story behind the 28 pointer – assuming it was Dmtriev and Witkoff holed up in Miami for three days; and then lowly neo-con Marco Rubio and zero-expert on anything Zionist asset Jared Kushner (!) chiming in – the messy, even infantile “plan” posing as Hegemon in Control and mocking the BRICS/SCO is completely unworkable.
What if it was designed to be exactly that?
The new frantic spin is that the sweaty sweatshirt in Kiev has been given an ultimatum by Trump 2.0: under a new “aggressive timeline”, he has to get on board. Or else.
Kiev’s backers – the proverbial assortment of chihuahuas comprising the EU, the European Commission (EC) and “leaders” in selected capitals – have rejected the 28-pointer, and so did Kiev, right from the start.
The 28-pointer indeed manages the feat of assembling an incoherent mish-mash that is unworkable not only for Russia but also for the EU/NATO combo. A few examples:
Point 4: “A U.S.-mediated Russia–NATO dialogue will be launched to resolve security issues and promote cooperation”. NATO is a brainchild of the Empire of Chaos. It will never “cooperate” with “existential threat” Russia.
Point 9: “European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.” That means NATO still ready to attack Russian territory.
Point 10: “The U.S. security guarantee [to Ukraine] comes with conditions: – The U.S. receives compensation.” That’s pure “offer you can’t refuse” Mafia territory.
Point 13: “Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
That’s what this is all about, per the Circus Ringmaster himself: grabbing Russian natural resources. Moreover Russia does not need the G8: Moscow’s focus is on BRICS/SCO.
Point 14: “Frozen Russian assets will be allocated as follows:
That’s peak Theater of the Absurd: not only the Americans want to use Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine – which they were instrumental in destroying – but their “10 per cent for the Big Guy” turns out to be a hefty 50%.
Point 17: “The U.S. and Russia will extend nuclear arms-control treaties, including New START.” A non-starter: Moscow has been stressing non-stop that arms-control treaties will not be negotiated in relation to the SMO.
Point 21: “Territorial arrangements:
Total non-starter – and not only for the EU/NATO-Kiev combo. Kherson and Zaporozhye, constitutionally, are now fully Russian – and will be liberated on the battlefield.
Point 26: “Full amnesty for all parties for all actions taken during the war: no prosecutions, no war-crimes claims.” Total non-starter: Kiev forced the draft document to use “amnesty” instead of “audit”. Moscow will settle for nothing less that full prosecution of members of the “criminal organization”. Yes, there will be a war crimes tribunal.
Point 27: “The agreement will be legally binding and enforced by a Peace Council chaired by Donald J. Trump.” That’s a Gaza replay. As if Putin and the Russian Security Council would accept a “Peace Council” chaired by a Circus Ringmaster whose expiry date is fast approaching, not to mention be subordinated to the losers in a vicious proxy war.
About a really intriguing takeaway
One plausible takeaway of the 28-pointer is that the selected oligarchy running the Empire of Chaos continues to run a protection racket – and the only way to salvage the de facto strategic defeat in country 404 is to turn a quick buck.
Another more intriguing, plausible takeaway is that the 28-pointer was never meant to be accepted by the EU-Kiev combo. It’s all about the Circus Ringmaster’s exit strategy from the debacle in Novorossiya.
Trump is already preparing the terrain – as in I tried everything, but Zelensky won’t comply. So it’s now his – and his gang’s – problem only, side by side with the EU chihuahuas. Up next: an immediate change of narrative. What else: the Empire of Chaos cannot manage reality, only narratives.
Trump 2.0 may start to work on improving U.S.-Russia relations – while blame for the collapse of the “peace process” is laid on the EU-Kiev combo. The optics of the 28-pointer P.R. op are everything: packaged as it is asking Moscow to strike a compromise, even as Russia is winning in the battlefield, while making sure the “criminal organization” in Kiev cannot agree to the main provisions.
Provisional endgame: the chihuahuas of war will keep barking while the SMO will keep rollin’ along.
Takaichi: the Honeymooner. When will the divorce come?
with gratitude to Julian Macfarlane at News Forensics.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s poll numbers have risen to over 65%. I am not sure whether Takaichi is the Japanese Thatcher— or the Japanese Blair both of whom came into power with great numbers. .
She has already sparked controversy.
One is her work-life concept, where “work” IS “life” – as it used to be in the 60s in Japan. Her conservative values are not exactly female-friendly. Men are supposed to work – do overtime – and women stay home and have babies as they once did. They can’t make any money in the workplace anyway.
Not that young men aren’t willing to die trying either.
“Karoshi” – “death by overwork” – what’s that?
Takaichi thinks that its’ something positive.
In a speech after winning the party leadership race on Saturday, Takaichi said, “I will work, work, work, work and work.”
She also called on LDP lawmakers to “work like a horse.”
While such remarks seem to demonstrate her resolve to shoulder heavy responsibilities, they apparently came as a surprise to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
“As she clearly said she would throw away her work-life balance, I can’t help but wonder if that’s okay. But I believe that is her expression of determination,” said Ishiba, who gave an address after Takaichi’s victory speech.
That appears to be how middle class Japanese women are taking the speech—determination. After all, they saw their mothers working around the clock, including part-time.
Takaichi grew up in a middle class family too.
But this is not the only example of her ultra right views.
Sinophobia, of course, has been a Japanese things since…forever… maybe because of a an unspoken, hidden suspicion that the Imperial Family is Chinese, or at least Korean. The average Japanese still has nothing much good to say about China – or Chinese people.
Takaichi has already angered the Chinese by suggesting Japanese intervention should the Chinese seek a military solution to Taiwan.
She cites reasons of “self defense” , saying Taiwan is only 60 miles from Japan, by which she means from the Diaoyu Islands which both China and Taiwan claim, with considerable reason.
Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands
Keep in mind that the Ryukyus were not part of Japan until 1879. The Ryukyus were an independent and prospered through trade with China. The Japanese took over, banned the language and culture.
Then there is Dokdo Island, which is occupied by South Korea and which the Japanese call Takeshima. She has said that a Cabinet Minister should attend the ceremony to mark “Takeshima Day,” held in Shimane every February to demonstrate Japan’s sovereignty over the islet — although this is a local rather than national event.
Dokdo / Takeshima Island
OK. Not exactly WWII again . But. .
Kurile Islands / Hokkaido
Let us keep in mind that Japan only took Hokkaido after the Boshin War of 1869. It was its first step towards emulating the colonialism and imperialism of the West. The Ainu peoples were to the Japanese what Native Americans were to Americans. Japan’s first attempt at genocide.
The Russians understand history only too well.
Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in a speech last week, scolded Russia for its “aggression against Ukraine” but also said that Japan maintains “its policy of resolving the territorial issue and concluding a peace treaty.”
The territorial issue is of course the Kurils which Japan lost as a consequence of WWII, just as Russia lost the southern part of Sakhalin as a consequence of the Russo Japanese War fo 1904. What goes round, comes round.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said she had not seen anything new in the remarks by Takaichi, and that for any progress Tokyo would have to change its tone.
“We have repeatedly stated before that the path to resuming dialogue with Japan will open only after Tokyo actively abandons its anti-Russian course aimed at harming our country and its citizens,” Zakharova told reporters when asked by Reuters about the prospects for a peace deal.
Zakharova said Tokyo’s “unfriendly” policy towards Russia had led relations towards a dead-end.
“This unfriendly dead-end approach was chosen by the Japanese side, not by us,” Zakharova added.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sidestepped a commitment to maintain Japan’s decades-old pledge not to produce, possess or host nuclear weapons over apparent concerns about the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.”
Formulated in 1967 and known formally as the country’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles, the pledge has consistently been upheld by governments since.
Takaichi told opposition lawmakers in parliament Tuesday that, as her government gears up to revise the country’s key national security documents by the end of 2026, “it is not yet at the stage” where she could “definitively state” that the wording of the principles will remain the same.
Of course, the Three Principles is an excuse for permitting American bases all over the country. Do they have nuclear weapons? Japan allows nuclear armed American ships and aircraft to “transit” through Japan How long is the stopover? Don’t ask, don’t tell.
Without the three principles, things get complicated. Japan might want to develop its own weapons and reduce the number of American bases.
Let us remember, however, that this winging to the right is what that declining nations do.
We see this in Europe too. Beat the drums of war, build up a sense of threat and fear, so that people will invest their hopes for the future in a strong leader, who is somehow “different”, but adhering to traditional beliefs. Change but no change. Or as Obama said, “Change you can believe in”.
But Japan needs China —not just for its huge market but for its technologies ==for example the rare earth magnets that Japanese consumer electronics rely on.
Should China — Japan’s main trading partner — stop cooperating economically, Japan is in trouble. The G7 economies no longer represent viable markets for its products in the future.
Japan needs Russia and South Korea too. So alienating these countries is not a recipe for economic success.
In addition, Japan needs access to the vast resources of Russia— not just Russian gas and oil, but wood, minerals, and the like, including foodstuffs.
Economic cooperation with South Korea is important too. Again, technologies matter.
As for “work-life” balance, a grueling balance between men in the workplace, women in the home was an aspect of Japan’s reindustrialization in the 50s and 60s. Ironically Japanese society then was one of the most egalitarian in the world—except for women, of course. 90% of Japanese then thought themselves “middle class”.
It must be said also that in those days Japanese white collar workers at least rarely did much from 9 to 5 — everything was accomplished in overtime—which paid extra.
Now things have changed.
Wealth in Japan today is flowing upwards as it is in all financialized societies. It isn’t as bad as in the France or the UK or the US— but is that a valid comparison?
Japan is more and more unequal. Of course it was always unequal for women But with future money earning partners in short supply, things are worse.
Marriage rates have dropped. Birthrates too. Nobody has sex anymore.
How long before the Japanese population reaches 50,000,000?
This is Takaichi’s honeymoon but it will be over sooner or later. She might well win the next election but she has no new ideas, no solutions, just same-old, same-old. Yes, she’s a woman— an honorary member of the Old Boys Club.
Just like Thatcher was.
Minister of Defence Belousov at the Russian Security Council (RSC): “… the United States plans to adopt the new Dark Eagle medium-range missile system with hypersonic missiles with a range of 5,500 kilometers at the end of this year.”
with appreciation to Dr. Karl at karlof1’s Geopolitical Gymnasium.
Russian Security Council met in person instead of the recent video format—telling.
That Russia’s Security Council met wasn’t surprising; what was surprising was for Mr. Volodin, the Duma Head, to request the agenda be postponed and the issue of Trump’s vow to resume testing nuclear weapons be discussed since it’s of great concern as you’ll read. And then the most surprising point was the publication of the entire discussion, which was certainly an act of signal sending. As one might presume, the Russians are far better informed about the Outlaw US Empire’s nuclear program than the Empire’s citizens are. The Gym’s American readers ought to pay close attention to what Team Trump has planned and note the primary meme this will fall under—Peace Through Strength. Now for the discussion:
V. Putin: Dear colleagues, good afternoon!
As you know, our government delegation has just returned from a trip to the People’s Republic of China. Mikhail Vladimirovich [Mishustin] has reported to me in detail about the results of this work. I believe that it was very timely, informative, and highly useful. After the main issues have been addressed, I would like to ask Mikhail Vladimirovich to inform all our colleagues about this.
The main issue we are discussing today is transport safety. The speaker is Andrey Sergeevich Nikitin, Minister of Transport.
V. Volodin: Vladimir Vladimirovich,can we skip the agenda?
V. Putin: Yes, please, I ask you.
V. Volodin: Given that Trump recently literally stated that the United States of America is resuming nuclear weapons testing, the deputies are asking a question and are generally concerned about the situation. Because it is clear where the world can be pushed.
Therefore, based on the fact that two years ago, you said that if the United States returns to testing nuclear weapons, Russia has every right to do the same. Can you explain what steps and actions we will take on this topic, which is of great concern to almost every member of parliament? Given that this is an extremely important issue, especially since the President of the United States has expressed his opinion on it.
V.Putin: Yes, indeed, this is a serious issue. Let’s listen to our colleagues.
The floor is now given to the Minister of Defence, Andrey Removich [Belousov]. Please, I ask you.
A. Belousov: Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich! Dear colleagues!
We should certainly focus not only on the statements and remarks of political figures and American officials, but primarily on the actions of the United States of America. These actions clearly indicate Washington’s active development of strategic offensive weapons.
First, the White House has consistently withdrawn from long-standing arms reduction and limitation treaties. In 2002, it withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, in 2019, it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and in 2020, it withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty.Therefore, a possible U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear test moratorium could be a logical step towards dismantling the global strategic stability system.
The second is that the United States is carrying out a forced modernizationof its strategic offensive weapons. Work is underway to create a new intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sentinel, with a new nuclear warhead. It will have a range of 13,000 kilometers. Work is also underway on a new strategic nuclear submarine, the Columbia, to replace the Ohio. A new heavy bomber, the B-21 Raider, is being developed. A nuclear-armed cruise missile is being developed, and so on. It is planned to reopen 56 launchers on 14 Ohio-class submarines, I want to emphasize, namely de-mothballing, they’re fully loaded with Trident II ballistic missiles. Preparations are also underway for the reverse conversion of 30 B-52H strategic bombers into nuclear weapons carriers.
Third, the Americans have begun implementing the Golden Dome program, which includes both missile interception and pre-launch destruction of Russian and Chinese missiles.
Fourth, the United States plans to adopt the new Dark Eagle medium-range missile system with hypersonic missiles with a range of 5,500 kilometers at the end of this year. This system is planned to be deployed in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. The flight time from Germany, where this missile system is planned to be deployed, to central Russia is estimated to be around six to seven minutes.
Fifth, Washington regularly conducts exercises for strategic offensive forces. The last such exercise, Global Thunder 2025, which focused on the preemptive use of nuclear missiles against Russian territory, took place in October of this year.
In general, this is a single set of measures that includes possible US plans for conducting nuclear tests, which significantly increase the level of military danger for Russia.
This means that we must maintain our nuclear capabilities in a state of readiness to respond to any unacceptable damage caused by the enemy, and we must act appropriately in response to Washington’s actions to ensure the security of our country.
Taking into account the above, I consider it expedient to begin preparations for full-scale nuclear tests immediately. The readiness of the forces and facilities of the Central Test Site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago allows for their implementation in a short timeframe.
V. Putin: Thank you. I have invited the Chief of the General Staff to participate in the work on the first issue, the main issue. Since this issue has arisen, I would like to ask Valery Vasilyevich to also speak on this topic, please.
V. Gerasimov: Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief!
The fact that the American side has not provided any official explanations for President Trump’s statement regarding the resumption of nuclear tests does not suggest that the United States will not begin preparing for and conducting nuclear tests in the near future.
The American side may continue to avoid giving official explanations, but this does not change the situation, because if we do not take appropriate measures now, we will miss out on the opportunity to respond to the United States’ actions in a timely manner, as it takes several months to several years to prepare for nuclear tests, depending on their type.
We are aware of statements made by a number of high-ranking American officials about the resumption of nuclear testing in the United States, and an analysis of these statements indicates that Washington is focused on preparing and conducting such tests.
V. Putin: As for the clarifications, many of my colleagues have received a telegram from our ambassador in Washington from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on this topic.
Sergey Evgenievich, do you have this?
S.Naryshkin: Yes, Vladimir Vladimirovich, a few days ago, a telegram was received from the Ambassador [of Russia to the United States Alexander] Darchiev, in which he writes that our diplomats have contacted the US National Security Council and the US State Department to clarify the substance of the resonant statements by the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump.
Our diplomatic colleagues asked what exactly was meant by the statement made the day before about the President of the United States instructing the Pentagon to immediately proceed with nuclear weapons tests, and they requested clarification from the National Security Council and the State Department. However, both the White House and the U.S. Department of State declined to provide a specific response, stating that they would report the information to their superiors and contact the Russian side if it was deemed necessary to provide clarification on the issues raised by the Russian diplomats.
V.Putin: Sergey Kuzhugetovich, I know that the Security Council has also dealt with this issue and has analysed what is happening in this regard in the ruling circles, as we say, of the United States itself. Do you have anything to explain on this matter?
S. Shoigu: Yes, Vladimir Vladimirovich, certainly.
Both before and after our ambassador’s address, various statements were made, primarily aimed at achieving the same goal. Following the President’s extreme statement on November 3, he gave a lengthy interview in which he repeatedly asserted that the United States would resume nuclear weapons testing, accusing both Russia and China of conducting such tests.
Following or preceding him, Secretary of Defense Hegseth has already reported that the Pentagon is promptly carrying out the American President’s order to resume nuclear weapons testing. Vice President Vance has further stated that sometimes the nuclear arsenal needs to be tested to ensure its proper functioning. This is echoed by Speaker of the House Johnson, who asserts that the resumption of testing is a demonstration of the necessary strength to maintain peace and deter Russia and China.
The head of the Ministry of Energy, Wright, who is actually responsible for nuclear testing in the United States, said that the testing would be of new systems, and it would be non-nuclear explosions. The head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Cotton, in turn, noted that this was not about large-scale tests with “nuclear mushrooms” in the desert or the South Pacific, but rather about small controlled underground explosions, which are essentially such tests of nuclear weapons. This will allow the United States, I quote, to test both long-standing and promising nuclear weapons systems.
Based on the analysis of all these statements and all these declarations, we are not entirely clear about the further actions and steps taken by the United States of America regarding the testing or non-testing of nuclear weapons.
V. Putin: Alexander Vasilyevich, your service deals with the problems of countering foreign intelligence services on the territory of the Russian Federation, but there is also a part of your work related to the activities of special services abroad.
What is your opinion on this matter?
A. Bortnikov: Vladimir Vladimirovich, of course, the situation is very difficult. And I agree that this should be taken very seriously, but there are many questions that need to be answered in order to make a specific decision.
In this regard, Vladimir Vladimirovich, I ask you to give us time to thoroughly investigate this matter and prepare appropriate proposals.
V. Putin: All right.
I have marked some of your statements and opinions, and I would like to note that Russia has always strictly adhered to its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and we have no plans to deviate from these obligations.
However, in my Address to the Federal Assembly in 2023, I stated that if the United States or other states participating in the relevant Treaty conduct such tests, Russia will also have to take appropriate retaliatory measures.
In this regard, I instruct the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the special services, and the relevant civilian agencies to do everything possible to collect additional information on this issue, analyze it at the Security Council, and make coordinated proposals on the possible start of preparations for nuclear weapons testing.
Let’s proceed from this. I am waiting for your report.
Let’s move on to the main issue on today’s agenda. [My Emphasis]
The Outlaw US Empire was clearly stated as “the enemy,” which IMO is very important. Now what Mr. Volodin has as an answer to his Duma colleagues seems to be that preparations for testing are being made while a further investigation into the enemy’s intentions is being conducted. I note that no specific time was mentioned regarding the entry into operation of the Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, nor is there any time-table associated with the Trident refurbishment, which IMO has the biggest threat to Russia. IMO, it’s clear to me that Deep State actors were shocked by the appearance of the Poseidon and Burevestnik and have generated a knee-jerk response to their technological backwardness. That Golden Dome is to have some form of offensive capability is also a new bit of info about it. But as most of us know, those vaunted new Outlaw US Empire weapon systems face production delays and cost overruns that also contribute to the knee-jerk reaction: Oh my god, what can we do to show our claims to parity are valid? And IMO this reaction also spells the death of New Start when it fails to be renewed this February.
Oh, and Russia launched another Poseidon carrier a few days ago, the second of five planned, each of which carry six Poseidons and other weapons. Since one is already at sea, it can be assumed that it has a full complement of Poseidons. Plus given its propulsion mode, Poseidon doesn’t need a sub as a launch platform as it could be launched from a Russian port.
So, it’s clear the testing of Russia’s newest strategic weapon systems has generated a response within the Outlaw US Empire. How that response pans-out given the decrepit state of the Empire’s nuclear weapons forces and its woefully incompetent Military Industrial Complex remains to be seen. IMO, Russia’s actions are very reasonable and are what one ought to expect. I’m sure this topic will be revisited soon.
… it’s not so easy to escape from a war you started yourself, leaving your allies to fend for themselves.
By Rostislav Ishchenko at Ukraine.ru.
(machine translation)
We are currently facing a moment of truth: either Russia will be able to complete its military operation in Ukraine within the next three to five months with a victory that will be unassailable by even the most ardent domestic skeptics, or the danger of a global confrontation will increase dramatically. On the external front, criticism will always be present, and our achievements will always be subject to discrediting, as there will always be forces seeking revenge and continuing the global confrontation. The format of peace in Ukraine should not leave any chance for foreign revanchists to ignite a new conflict in the next 10-20 years (it is impossible to make realistic plans for a longer period under the current conditions).
Until recently, the pace and direction of the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive indicated their intention, under favorable conditions, to defeat the most combat-ready Ukrainian forces assembled in the area from Kharkov to Pokrovsk and reach the Kherson-Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Pavlograd-Kharkov line, with the expectation that a catastrophe on the front and the loss of new territories would make both the Kiev regime and its Western allies more constructive, leading to a peace agreement that would leave Ukraine without Novorossiya and thus severely undermine its demographic and industrial mobilization capabilities. In general, Kiev could lose up to 10 regions that were part of Ukraine in 1991 (Crimea, Sevastopol, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, which have already become part of Russia, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaiv, and Odesa regions, which still need to be liberated).
Given that Dmitry Medvedev had been much more radical about the scope of future territorial changes throughout the summer (not excluding the possibility of Ukraine’s complete elimination), Moscow clearly wanted to demonstrate to its “partners” that there was an influential group within the Russian leadership advocating a more aggressive peace plan that would exclude Kyiv from the negotiation process and establish peace directly with those Western countries that were willing to accept it. Ukraine and those Western countries that were unwilling to take a constructive stance would be the ones to pay for the peace.
Judging by the way events unfolded since the meeting in Anchorage, and the careful nature of the Russian leadership’s statements regarding a peaceful resolution, Trump agreed to at least attempt to follow this path. However, it soon became apparent that the United States lacked European allies in its readiness for a compromise peace with Russia. Europe, in general, and its leading countries, in particular, supported Zelensky’s uncompromising stance. After some hesitation, and under serious pressure from American supporters of a hard line on Russia, including several members of his own team, Trump abandoned the idea of a separate peace with Russia and moved on to a “no peace, no war” project, in which the United States does not directly participate in the European crisis, but also does not seek a global compromise with Russia. Washington agreed to sell all types of weapons to its European partners and withdrew from restraining the provocative nature of their policies towards Russia. The principle was “Let Europe fight Russia if they want, and the United States will benefit.”
But it’s not so easy to escape from a war you started yourself, leaving your allies to fend for themselves. The Europeans, taking advantage of the Americans’ statement that they are willing to sell any type of conventional weapons in any quantity, have demanded that Ukraine receive at least several hundred long-range missiles. While the official request is for Tomahawk missiles, it is more likely that Ukraine will receive less powerful but equally long-range missiles of other types. However, the transfer of a certain number of Tomahawks, at least for the purpose of testing them against Russian air defense systems in real large-scale combat operations, is also not ruled out.
The transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine will raise the question of a Russian response. Despite Moscow’s attempts to avoid another escalation, a response targeting the military infrastructure of countries that have provided missile weapons to the Kiev regime would quickly become inevitable. In this regard, Poland is the most vulnerable country, as it is home to the main hub for the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine, and it is actively involved in lobbying for Kiev’s interests and disrupting any negotiations for a compromise peace with Russia. Additionally, Poland hosts American troops, including the Aegis missile defense system, which could potentially be used for both missile defense and Tomahawk missile launches. In any case, the use of Kalibr, Iskander, or Kinzhal against a NATO military facility on NATO territory would have raised the question of NATO’s response. The situation threatens to spiral out of political control.
Judging by the latest actions of the Russian Armed Forces, Moscow has decided to accelerate the operation to defeat and destroy the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as much as possible and to give it more profound and decisive goals. This is a kind of response to the deployment of missiles before it takes place, in order to make this provocation meaningless.
Experience tells us that if the transfer of a particular type of weapon has become the subject of public discussion, it means that the Kiev regime will have access to that weapon in the near future. Initially, in a few instances, and then in a more significant number. Therefore, the sooner there is no one to transfer the weapon, the better.
In recent weeks, the Russian Armed Forces have been launching increasingly powerful strikes on Ukraine’s energy and railway infrastructure. As a result, all major Ukrainian cities, from the eastern border to the Dnieper River, have been plunged into darkness. Ukraine has also stated that Russia is attempting to logistically isolate the entire Left Bank region, including the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. This isolation is being carried out both before and during the offensive operation to prevent the enemy from maneuvering forces and resources and transferring reserves and supplies from the rear to the front, or at least to severely limit such capabilities.
Since the Russian Armed Forces are already conducting an offensive operation on the left bank of the Dnieper River with decisive goals, the sharp increase in missile strikes on Ukrainian rear areas should indicate Russia’s attempt to accelerate the pace of the operation without increasing its own losses, by leveraging its advantage in production and the number of missiles and UAVs it has accumulated compared to the collective West supplying Ukraine. Russia’s actions to isolate the combat zone and significantly reduce Ukraine’s ability to promptly repair equipment and produce UAVs in “garage” settings are effective in the short and medium term. Then, if the enemy is still alive, they gradually find ways to overcome the crisis, while their own strike forces are depleted, their reserves need to be replenished, and the intensity of their strikes decreases.
It could be assumed that Moscow is simply trying to speed up the operation to defeat the Kharkov-Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the expansion of the geography of attacks on Kiev, Odessa, Chernihiv and Sumy suggests that while maintaining the previous goals of the operation, the maximum program is also considered as a minimum program: in case of successful development of the offensive, expand its geography to the limits of February- March 2022, to reach the Dnieper River along its entire course, if conditions allow, to occupy several strategic bridgeheads (the right bank of the Kherson region, the districts of Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye. Kremenchug and Kiev) and in the face of a full — scale catastrophe of the Ukrainian front, either dictate ultimatum peace terms to the Ukrainian authorities, or continue the pursuit of the APU further (possibly to the western border, but at least to the Zhytomyr-Vinnytsia line, which provides Russia with security from almost all types of non-strategic weapons in service with NATO).
Today, only the complete exclusion of Ukraine from the game on the Western side gives a fairly high, albeit not 100% chance, of avoiding the development of a Russia/NATO missile crisis, which will immediately acquire a partial global character in addition to its European nature. The acceleration of the operation against Ukraine is possible only through the maximum intensification of attacks on the rear: the maximum use of Russia’s air and space superiority, which will serve not only as an effective means of combating the Armed Forces of Ukraine but also as a demonstration and warning to Europeans who wish to wage war against Russia.
The window of opportunity for Russia is not wide open, but it is ajar, and it is into this gap that Russian missiles will have to fly in order to make it a gateway to a victorious world.
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