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Premier jour de visite de Trump à Pékin

Par : ActuStratpol

À première vue, la rencontre entre le dirigeant chinois Xi Jinping et le président américain Donald Trump s’est déroulée sans

L’article Premier jour de visite de Trump à Pékin est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

ICI MOSCOU: Consolidation du nouvel ordre mondial

Par : STRATPOL

Une prolongation du cessez-le-feu a été acceptée in extremis. Que peut obtenir Donald Trump des négociations avec l’Iran ? Le

L’article ICI MOSCOU: Consolidation du nouvel ordre mondial est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

ICI MOSCOU: Coup de théâtre

Par : STRATPOL

L’annonce d’un cessez-le-feu entre l’Iran et les États-Unis a surpris tout le monde. Les négociations qui doivent se tenir au

L’article ICI MOSCOU: Coup de théâtre est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Trump limoge des généraux de l’armée de terre

Par : ActuStratpol

Une série de limogeages de hauts gradés militaires a eu lieu au Pentagone. CNN l’a rapporté le 3 avril, citant

L’article Trump limoge des généraux de l’armée de terre est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Trump promet de renvoyer l’Iran à l’âge de pierre

Par : ActuStratpol

Le président américain Donald Trump s’est adressé à la nation, déclarant que l’opération militaire contre l’Iran atteindrait bientôt ses objectifs

L’article Trump promet de renvoyer l’Iran à l’âge de pierre est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

ICI MOSCOU: L’État profond démasqué

Par : STRATPOL

Donald Trump peine à constituer une force internationale pour forcer le passage du détroit d’Ormuz. Les démissions dans son administration

L’article ICI MOSCOU: L’État profond démasqué est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Breaking News:  Trump raises the white flag, surrenders to Iran

Par : gilbertdoctorow

Do not be put off by the several minutes at the start of this podcast without video image only sound. The producers were obviously in a great hurry to prepare the podcast for uploading on the internet and sacrificed a bit of visuals. Be assured that I am speaking from the very start.

My nearly 20 minute long interview with News X World this morning was prompted by the breaking news coming from Trump – that, in his words, the latest productive talks with Iran have shown that a deal may be possible and accordingly he has suspended for 5 days his most recent threats of ‘obliterating’ Iranian power generating plants if they do not open the Straits of Hormuz to normal tanker traffic within 48 hours.  Meanwhile, the Iranians deny that any talks have taken place with the United States.

What are we to make of this?  As I say in the interview, I believe this is a surrender by Trump which he tries to mask in the language of successfully negotiating a deal, suggesting that he remains in control of the situation even when he does not.

Of course, with Trump you never know what is real and what is illusion.  It is also possible that he is just buying time until more US forces arrive in the region and he can proceed with his attack on Iran, saying then that the negotiations failed.

Nonetheless, I stick with my interpretation of a surrender. If Trump declares that U.S. objectives of degrading Iranian defenses worked and there is no longer a threat of their building a bomb or continuing production of their missiles then, logically, he can accede to the most important concession which Iran is demanding of the US today, namely that the more than decade long economic sanctions be lifted. This would provide the country with a big inflow of export earnings, all the more so that their strikes on neighboring Gulf States and their restriction of tanker flows through the Straits of Hormuz have significantly raised the price levels and demand for their hydrocarbons. Thus, Iran could earn its own ‘reparations’.

Quite exceptionally, the News X World host asked for my advice to investors and I offered my thoughts on gold, stocks and Certificates of Deposit under present volatile conditions.  I can foresee numerous comments from readers on that issue.

gilbertdoctorow

ICI MOSCOU. Opération « Epstein fury »

Par : STRATPOL

L’opération militaire américaine se poursuit et restera dans les livres d’histoire. Quels sont les objectifs de cette attaque contre l’Iran

L’article ICI MOSCOU. Opération « Epstein fury » est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Trump prononce son discours sur l’état de l’Union, entre Iran et droits de douane

Par : ActuStratpol

Trump a prononcé son discours annuel sur l’état de l’Union devant le Congrès. Ce discours intervient à l’approche des élections,

L’article Trump prononce son discours sur l’état de l’Union, entre Iran et droits de douane est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Pepe Escobar – La véritable “rupture” sanctionnée à Davos

Par : Paolo Hamidouche

Quoi que préparent les Barbares, l’important est que la Chine soit déjà entrée dans la phase suivante… Par Pepe Escobar

L’article Pepe Escobar – La véritable “rupture” sanctionnée à Davos est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Trump menace l’Iran de frappes imminentes

Par : ActuStratpol

Le président américain Donald Trump a déclaré que l’Iran n’avait plus beaucoup de temps pour conclure un accord nucléaire. Il

L’article Trump menace l’Iran de frappes imminentes est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Ici Moscou: La fin d’un monde

Par : STRATPOL

Dans cette nouvelle édition de « ICI MOSCOU », Xavier Moreau commente la tenue du forum de Davos. Le nouvel

L’article Ici Moscou: La fin d’un monde est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Le Pentagone publie une nouvelle stratégie de défense

Par : ActuStratpol

strategie defense

Il n’est pas dans l’intérêt des États-Unis de s’engager seuls dans des opérations internationales ; l’armée américaine se concentrera plutôt sur

L’article Le Pentagone publie une nouvelle stratégie de défense est apparu en premier sur STRATPOL.

Let’s do our arithmetic on the sums being proposed by Witkoff and Kushner to resolve the Ukraine war and the stand-off over Greenland

Par : gilbertdoctorow

Let’s do our arithmetic on the sums being proposed by Witkoff and Kushner to resolve the Ukraine war and the stand-off over Greenland

I have just been in an exchange with former Assistant Treasury Secretary and professional economist Craig Roberts about a money issue:  can we call what Witkoff and Kushner are penciling in as the sums of money that could end the Ukraine war or could end the stand-off over Greenland ‘cheap bribes’?

When you do the arithmetic, you have to scratch your head at the notion that Trump’s boys are barking up the wrong tree, as we say in colloquial English.  Of course, I could be off by a digit given that my hand-held pre-Modern Age calculator barely functions in the realm of billions. I welcome push-back from readers.

                                                              *****

On the question of ‘bribes,’ meaning the proposed payments to Denmark and to Ukraine:   I make the argument in an essay I published this morning that real estate developers can be better emissaries for peace negotiations than professional diplomats with law degrees who are by definition traders in abstractions, in the decades-long tradition of Secretary of State John Foster Dulles. They are people who try to solve POLITICAL problems as if they were strictly legal issues like sovereignty or aggression.  They are not looking for a resolution which comes from breaking eggs to make an omelet.

 I think that the Danish people will be very stupid to refuse Trump’s 800 billion for Greenland – if their authoritarian Prime Minister gives them the facts and let’s them express themselves in a referendum.   At present and in the foreseeable future, meaning the next 30 plus years, Greenland is a budgetary charge not a budgetary contributor.  The 800 billion divided by the 6 million population of Denmark comes to 133,000 for every man, woman and child in Denmark or about 6,000 per annum per capita if invested with a return of 5% in perpetuity. This income whether annualized or taken as lump sum would make the Danes one of the most financially secure nations in Europe.    How can people call this a bribe?  Or if you do so, it is a helluva bribe. Let’s call it what it is: a purchase price for peace.

For the Ukrainians, a similar global sum in exchange for the Donbas territory may be less attractive on a per capita basis, but the net worth of Ukrainians today is a lot lower than the net worth of your average Dane today.  The money could finally give compensation to widows and orphans. The money could rebuild most of the infrastructure and residential properties that have been destroyed in the war.  It would not compensate the Ukrainians for all that they have lost, but it was their own stupidity and/or lack of courage not to overthrow the Zelensky regime long ago which makes them net losers even if they are offered and accept 700 or 800 billion.

These are not trivial issues. 

©Gilbert Doctorow, 2026

gilbertdoctorow

‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 21 January 2026: Trump through Russian eyes

Par : gilbertdoctorow

‘Judging Freedom’ edition of 21 January 2026: Trump through Russian eyes

The Russian views that Judge Napolitano solicited were firstly those of Putin, his direct spokesman Peskov and his Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov with respect to Trump’s ambition to take over Greenland and with respect to the evident CIA attempt to assassinate Putin by means of the drone attack on his countryside residence.

My response on the first issue was that Putin and his direct assistants are being very cautious: they note that Trump is not respecting international law and this displeases them but otherwise they do not criticize Trump directly. Meanwhile, the chattering classes, the Russian elites, meaning Duma members, top commentators on international affairs who appear on the most authoritative talk shows like Evening with Vladimir Solovyov, show no such restraint: they are approving Trump’s using the Greenland acquisition to destroy NATO from within. They are enjoying Trump’s personal attacks on Keir Starmer for his ‘stupid’ hand-over of Diego Garcia to Mauritius in exchange for a lease agreement, his attacks on Emmanuel Macron’s decision not to join Trump’s Peace Board on Gaza, saying, no matter, Macron will be out of office in a few months.

As regards the drone attack, Putin and his circle clearly do not believe that Trump was in any way involved, saying instead that it was the CIA acting on its own, just as the CIA had murdered John F. Kennedy on its own.  They understand that Trump cannot control fully his government and they wish him well in his war on the Deep State while cautiously hedging their bets and pursuing the war in Ukraine at their own pace, confident in full victory.

I state openly here that while one of Judge Napolitano’s guests yesterday said Trump should be taken away in a straight jacket, I hold an entirely different view.  Trump seeks normal relations with Russia within a broader context of his Realist concept of the future world order, in which three Great Powers, Russia, China and the USA have each their own sphere of influence based on regional hegemony. This concept entailing ‘balance of power’ he received from his mentor at the start of his first term in office, Henry Kissinger.

I used the interview to explain what relevance the cession of Diego Garcia to Mauritius by Britain has to the pending issue of who owns Greenland.  The conversion of this powerful base to a lease may be compared to the proposal that the USA lease Greenland rather than take possession of it as owner. From his background in real estate, Trump is acutely aware of the weak sides of leasing.  If he thought for a moment he could point out that Russia had taken a 40-year lease from Ukraine on its strategically important base in Sevastopol, but following the coup d’etat of February 2014, it was widely expected that the lease would be revoked.   One could add another example of weakness of leases:  in Seychelles, the USA had a major observation base atop the hill overlooking the Seychelles capital of Victoria. The local government decided to raise the annual rent multiple times and finally Washington was obliged to give up this base. The property is now owned by the United Arab Emirates who have built a palace there they use for discreet diplomatic negotiations with…the Russians among others.

gilbertdoctorow

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